Jubaland crisis

Last updated
Jubaland crisis
Part of the Somali Civil War and constitutional crisis in Somalia
Location jubaland.png
Location of Jubaland
Date11 December 2024 (2024-12-11) – present
(8 months, 1 week and 3 days)
Location
Status Ongoing
Territorial
changes
Belligerents
Commanders and leaders
Units involved

Jubaland Dervish Force

  • Birjeex
  • Hanqadh
  • Abris
  • Jubaland presidential guard

Supported by:
Flag of the Ethiopian National Defense Force (3).svg Ethiopian National Defense Force [5]

Coat of arms of the Somali Armed Forces.svg Somali Armed Forces

Gor Gor Brigade


The Jubaland crisis is an ongoing armed conflict in southern Somalia. Stemming from a constitutional dispute between the Somali Federal Government (led by President, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Prime Minister, Hamza Abdi Barre) and the semi-autonomous state of Jubaland, following Ahmed Madobe's re-election to serve for a third term as Jubaland's president.

Contents

Background

Provisional Constitution of the Federal Republic of Somalia, adopted in 2012, established a federal system of government consisting of two levels: the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and the semi-autonomous Federal Member States (FMS). Intended to prevent the reemergence of an authoritarian central government, such as that under former President Siad Barre, and to address historical grievances by devolving powers to member states, the provisional constitution provides limited provisions for implementing federalism, forcing the FGS to negotiate with the FMS. Coupled with the ambiguity of the document and disputes over power and resources, has led to competing interpretations of federal governance. Some state governments favor greater autonomy, even asserting control of powers designated for the FGS, while others support a stronger central government. These disagreements have contributed to recurring tensions between the federal and state governments over the past two decades. [6]

Constitutional crisis and Jubaland election

A constitutional crisis emerged in Somalia on 30 March 2024, when the Federal Parliament of Somalia approved a series of constitutional amendments aimed at establishing a more "stable political system". These changes included a return to universal suffrage, replacing the decades old clan-based electoral system, and granting the president authority to appoint the prime minister without requiring parliamentary approval. Critics argued that the reforms significantly expanded executive power. In response, the semi-autonomous state of Puntland announced the following day that it was withdrawing its recognition and confidence in the Federal Government of Somalia. It called for a "mutually accepted Somali constitution that is subject to a public referendum" and declared that, until such a constitution is in place, it would operate independently. [7] [8]

In October, the National Consultative Council (NCC) convened federal and state officials to discuss democratisation and security. During the meeting, the federal government reaffirmed its commitment to advancing electoral reforms. The NCC proposed a one-year extension of the terms of all state presidents until the universal suffrage system could be implemented, which was accepted by the leaders of Hirshabelle, Galmudug, and South West states. The proposal and constitutional amendments were rejected by Judaland President Ahmed Mohamed Islam, known as Ahmed Madobe, who believed they would undermine regional autonomy. [6]

Defying the federal government, Judbaland amended its own constitution to override the two-term limit set by the FGS, extended presidential terms from four to five years, and proceeded with the presidential election on 25 November 2024, in which Madobe won a third term. [6] On 27 November 2024, the Banadir Regional Court in Mogadishu issued an arrest warrant for Madobe, accusing him of treason, violating the constitutional framework, leaking classified information to foreign actors, and undermining national unity. [6] [9]

The following day, the government of Jubaland suspended relations and cooperation with the federal government. [10] Furthermore, a court in Kismayo, the regional capital of Jubaland, announced a $100,000 reward for the arrest of Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, accusing him of treason, undermining national unity, and conspiring with Al-Shabaab militia. [11] [12]

Jubaland actions

Jubaland Accuses FGS of Misusing Aid and Blocking Flights

On 9 January 2025, the Jubaland State Cabinet has accused Somalia’s federal government of using international humanitarian aid meant for Jubaland's people to support armed conflicts in the region. [13] [14]

The Somali federal government had earlier announced the delivery of 700 tons of food aid from the United Arab Emirates. [15] They said Jubaland received 300 tons, and Puntland received 200 tons. However, both Jubaland and Puntland denied receiving the aid. [16]

Jubaland also accused the Somali Civil Aviation Authority of stopping flights to their region for political reasons. Officials said the federal government pressured airlines not to operate in Jubaland cities, making it harder for people to travel. [17]

Additionally, the Jubaland government said that federal authorities have stopped important development projects in the region as punishment for disagreements over ongoing constitution dispute. [18]

Timeline

Approximate map of the current phase of the Somali Civil War (Updated June 2025)
Somalia:
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
Under control of the Federal Government of Somalia, the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia, and the United States
Under Control of Puntland
Under Control of Jubaland
Jihadist insurgent groups:
Under presence/control of al-Qaeda-backed al-Shabaab and allies
Under control of Islamic State-backed Somalia Wilayah
Somaliland:
Under control of the self-declared state of Somaliland
(For a more detailed map of the current military situation, see here.) Somali Civil War (Google Live Map).svg
Approximate map of the current phase of the Somali Civil War (Updated June 2025)
Flag of Somalia.svg Somalia:
  Under Control of Puntland
  Under Control of Jubaland

AQMI Flag asymmetric.svg Jihadist insurgent groups:
  Under presence/control of al-Qaeda-backed al-Shabaab and allies
  Under control of Islamic State-backed Somalia Wilayah

Flag of Somaliland.svg Somaliland:
  Under control of the self-declared state of Somaliland

(For a more detailed map of the current military situation, see here.)

2024

2025

References

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