Opinion polling for the 2005 New Zealand general election

Last updated

Opinion polling was commissioned throughout the duration of the 47th New Zealand Parliament and in the lead up to the 2005 election by various organisations.

Contents

Party vote and key events in the leadup to the 2005 election

Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey firms.

Graphical summary

Opinion polls New Zealand 2005.svg
Local regression of polls conducted

Individual polls

PollDate Labour National NZ First ACT Green United
Future 		Māori Destiny
2002 election result 27 Jul 200241.2620.9310.387.147.006.69N/A [note 1]
One News Colmar Brunton [1] 1 Sep 2002402510678
TV3 NFO [2] 16 – 22 Sep 2002491910584.7
NBR-HP Invent [3] 19 – 22 Sep 200244229.58.55.9
One News Colmar Brunton [4] 23 – 26 Sep 2002 [5] 47268564
One News Colmar Brunton [6] 27 Oct 200251257555
NBR-HP Invent [7] 18 – 20 Oct 200247249.14.97.54.7
TV3 NFO [8] 18 – 24 Nov 2002 [9] 5019104.885
One News Colmar Brunton [10] 18 Nov 200249268652.9
One News Colmar Brunton [11] 15 Dec 200252256554
Herald-DigiPoll [12] 3 Feb 200349.622.97.25.95.13.3
TV3 NFO [13] 10 – 16 Feb 2003562164.263.6
One News Colmar Brunton [14] 17 Feb 200353275662
One News Colmar Brunton [15] 23 Mar 200351286652.9
TV3 NFO [16] 7 – 13 Apr 2003532654.962.4
One News Colmar Brunton [17] 13 Apr 200352266552
Herald-DigiPoll [18] 15–18 May 200349.42885.65.31.8
One News Colmar Brunton [19] 12 – 15 May 200350287632
TV3 NFO [20] 9 – 16 Jun 2003 [21] 522484.562.9
One News Colmar Brunton [22] 16 Jun 200354284
13 Jun 2003 – Destiny New Zealand is formed. [23]
Herald-DigiPollJul 200348.227.29.24.85.13.4
One News Colmar Brunton [24] 13 Jul 200351287641.1
Herald-DigiPoll [25] 12 – 17 Aug 200347.726.89.74.454.2
TV3 NFO [26] 12 Aug 200352239562.7
One News Colmar Brunton [27] 17 Aug 200347278652.6
One News Colmar Brunton [28] 15 Sep 200345298573.4
Herald-DigiPoll [29] 15 Oct 200343.322.312.36.29.22.7
TV3 NFO [30] 6 Oct 2003462410682.9
One News Colmar Brunton [31] 14 Oct 200345278672.8
28 Oct 2003 – Don Brash is elected leader of the National Party.
One News Colmar Brunton [32] 9 Nov 200345318472.2
One News Colmar Brunton [33] 14 Dec 2003452811642.1
27 Jan 2004 – Don Brash delivers his Orewa Speech.
Herald-DigiPoll [34] 23 Feb 20043745.55.62.35.31.4
3 News TNS [35] 5 Feb 2004433284.282.4
One News Colmar Brunton [36] 29 Jan – 4 Feb 2004 [37] 384561.351.8
3 News TNS [37] 27 – 29 Feb 2004394262.460.9
One News Colmar Brunton [38] 22 Mar 20043949422.21.7
3 News TNS [39] 25 – 31 Mar 2004424251.34.62.1
One News Colmar Brunton [40] 25 Apr 2004374851.651.9
One News Colmar Brunton [41] 17 – 20 May 2004 [42] 37475341.4
Herald-DigiPoll [43] 27 May – 1 Jun 200436445.624.72.4
3 News TNS [44] 27 May – 3 Jun 2004 [45] 4340524.62.3
13 Jun 2004 – Rodney Hide replaces Richard Prebble as leader of ACT New Zealand.
One News Colmar Brunton [42] 21 Jun 200440442.72.352.2
One News Colmar Brunton [46] 5 – 8 Jul 2004394352.742.2
7 Jul 2004 – The Māori Party is formed.
3 News TNS [47] 31 Jul 2004443952.64.71.80.9
Sunday Star-Times/BRC [47] 1 Aug 2004443933
One News Colmar Brunton [48] 9 – 12 Aug 2004444041.641.5
One News Colmar Brunton [49] 13 Sep 2004424252.541.7
Herald-DigiPoll [50] 28 Sep 200440.836513.62.61.5
3 News TNS [51] 30 Sep – 6 Oct 2004453353.35.22.8
One News Colmar Brunton [52] 14 Oct 2004443953.142.2
One News Colmar Brunton [53] 15 Nov 2004443853.342.5
Herald-DigiPoll [54] 19 – 27 Nov 200450.130.45.72.55.42.31.9
3 News TNS [55] 25 Nov – 1 Dec 2004463272.85.12.32.6
One News Colmar Brunton [56] 13 Dec 2004473552.851.4
Herald-DigiPoll [57] 1 Feb 200544.835.34.71.66.931.5
3 News TNS [58] 4 Feb 2005463852.14.71.41.7
One News Colmar Brunton [59] 14 Feb 2005443952412
One News Colmar Brunton [60] 14 – 17 Mar 2005463553511
Herald-DigiPoll [61] 22 – 30 Mar 200547.734.5
3 News TNS [62] 15 Apr 200545348
One News Colmar Brunton [63] 17 Apr 2005453873411
One News Colmar Brunton [64] 16 May 2005443782412
3 News TNS [65] 9 – 16 Jun 20054036111.56
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [66] 18 Jun 2005403882522
One News Colmar Brunton [67] 19 Jun 2005414372312
One News Colmar Brunton [68] 18 Jul 2005394271612
3 News TNS [69] 21 – 27 Jul 2005393971.661.42.2
Roy Morgan Research [70] 21 Jul – 1 Aug 20053838101.562
One News Colmar Brunton [71] 1–4 Aug 2005454152311
Roy Morgan Research [70] 2–15 Aug 20054036.582.57.52
One News Colmar Brunton [72] 15–18 Aug 20054537626111
One News Colmar Brunton [73] 22–25 Aug 20054340527111
3 News TNS [74] 25 – 30 Aug 2005394161.461.71.7
One News Colmar Brunton [75] 29 Aug – 1 Sep 20053846516121
Roy Morgan Research [76] 3 – 13 Sep 200538.5376.537.52.51.5
One News Colmar Brunton [77] 5–8 Sep 20053941636211
3 News TNS [78] 8 – 14 Sep 200540.538.76.80.96.93.01.4
Herald-DigiPoll9 – 14 Sep 200544.637.44.51.34.62.62.3
One News Colmar Brunton [78] 12 – 14 Sep 2005384461.952.51.7
Fairfax Media–Nielsen13 Sep 2005374371631
2005 election result 17 Sep 200541.1 39.15.71.55.32.72.10.6
PollDate Labour National NZ First ACT Green United
Future 		Māori Destiny
  1. ↑ The Māori Party and Destiny New Zealand were formed in 2004 and 2003, so did not contest the 2002 election

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References

  1. ↑ "LABOUR DOWN, NATS UP IN LATEST POLL". New Zealand Press Association. 1 September 2002.
  2. ↑ "Support For NZ PM's Labour Party Rose After July Election". Dow Jones International News. 25 September 2002.
  3. ↑ "GLIMMER OF HOPE FOR NATIONAL". New Zealand Press Association. 27 September 2002.
  4. ↑ "NZ's Labour Party Picks Up Support at Expense of United". Dow Jones International News. 30 September 2002.
  5. ↑ "Support for Labour stronger than ever". The New Zealand Herald. 29 October 2002.
  6. ↑ "Labour just can't go wrong, gaining four points to reach 51 percent support in the latest One News Colmar Brunton poll". IRN News. 27 October 2002.
  7. ↑ Hill Cone, Deborah (25 October 2002). "Voters give cold shoulder to smaller parties". National Business Review.
  8. ↑ "The latest TV3 poll confirms a continuing decline in support for National Party leader Bill English". Dow Jones International News. 28 November 2002.
  9. ↑ "ENGLISH TAKES POLL BATTERING AGAIN". Dominion Post. 28 November 2002.
  10. ↑ "NZ First Party Immigration Stance Adds To Tensions – Poll". Dow Jones International News. 18 November 2002.
  11. ↑ "LABOUR, UNITED FUTURE GAIN SUPPORT". New Zealand Press Association. 15 December 2002.
  12. ↑ "NZ Herald-Digipoll survey puts Govt on 49.6% support – National 23% – English trails Clark and Peters as preferred PM". IRN News. 3 February 2003.
  13. ↑ "SUPPORT FOR LABOUR SURGES". New Zealand Press Association. 17 February 2003.
  14. ↑ "National Party Posts Minor Rise in Latest NZ Poll". Dow Jones International News. 17 February 2003.
  15. ↑ "WAR CASTS SHADOW OVER ECONOMY – POLL". New Zealand Press Association. 23 March 2003.
  16. ↑ Young, Audrey (15 April 2003). "English, Brash on level pegging, survey finds". The New Zealand Herald.
  17. ↑ "POLL BOOSTS POPULARITY OF BRASH IN PREFERRED PM STAKES". New Zealand Press Association. 13 April 2003.
  18. ↑ "National polling its highest after turbulent few months". The New Zealand Herald. 19 May 2003.
  19. ↑ "LABOUR DOWN, NATIONAL UP IN LATEST POLL". New Zealand Press Association. 18 May 2003.
  20. ↑ Sutherland, Richard (19 June 2003). "National loses 2 points in TV3-NFO poll causing further concerns about English's leadership – Labour has 52% support". IRN News.
  21. ↑ "NZ Consumer Confidence Rebounded in June – TV3 NFO Poll". Dow Jones International News. 19 June 2003.
  22. ↑ Berry, Ruth (16 June 2003). "LABOUR SUPPORT 'RISING'". The Christchurch Press.
  23. ↑ "Electoral Commission registers another party | Scoop News". www.scoop.co.nz.
  24. ↑ "PETERS PICKS UP SUPPORT AS PREFERRED PM IN LATEST POLL". New Zealand Press Association. 13 July 2003.
  25. ↑ Taylor, Kevin (20 August 2003). "United, NZ First up as National slides". The New Zealand Herald.
  26. ↑ "SEABED ISSUE FAILS TO GIVE ENGLISH TRACTION". New Zealand Press Association. 12 August 2003.
  27. ↑ "SUPPORT FOR LABOUR FALLING, POLL SHOWS". New Zealand Press Association. 17 August 2003.
  28. ↑ Wilson, Peter (15 September 2003). "GOVT'S POPULARITY DROPS AGAIN". New Zealand Press Association.
  29. ↑ Sutherland, Richard (15 October 2003). "Herald-DigPol survey shows Labour down 4.4% to 43.3% support – National down 4.5 points on 22.3%". IRN News.
  30. ↑ Tunnah, Helen (6 October 2003). "GOVT'S POPULARITY DROPS AGAIN". The New Zealand Herald.
  31. ↑ "GOVT STEADY, NATS DOWN IN LATEST POLL". New Zealand Press Association. 14 October 2003.
  32. ↑ "BRASH SHOOTS UP POLLS". New Zealand Press Association. 9 November 2003.
  33. ↑ Berry, Ruth (15 December 2003). "Williamson on good behaviour bond". The New Zealand Herald.
  34. ↑ "NZ Poll Confirms Opposition Party Overtakes Govt". Dow Jones International News. 23 February 2004.
  35. ↑ Dower, Tim (5 February 2004). "The National Party has rated 32 percent support in a 3 News/TNS poll, Labour has 43 percent, NZ First 8 – ACT 4.2". IRN News.
  36. ↑ Jennings, Alan (14 February 2004). "Big change of fortune for National at the expense of Labour and NZ First in latest One News-Colmar Brunton poll". IRN News.
  37. 1 2 "NZ National Party Ahead of Current Govt in TV3 Poll". Dow Jones International News. 4 March 2004.
  38. ↑ "NZ's National Party Extends Lead Over Govt in Latest Poll". Dow Jones International News. 22 March 2004.
  39. ↑ Small, Vernon (5 April 2004). "MAIN PARTIES NECK AND NECK". The Christchurch Press.
  40. ↑ "New Poll Shows NZ's Brash Closing Gap on PM – Report". Dow Jones International News. 26 April 2004.
  41. ↑ "NZ National Party Maintains Lead Over Govt in Latest Poll". Dow Jones International News. 24 May 2004.
  42. 1 2 "NZ Govt Claws Back Some of Natl's Lead After Budget -Poll". Dow Jones International News. 21 June 2004.
  43. ↑ "Support For NZ Govt Down Despite New Spending – Poll". Dow Jones International News. 2 June 2004.
  44. ↑ Small, Vernon (7 June 2004). "LABOUR WIDENS LEAD IN POLL". Dominion Post.
  45. ↑ "NZ Labour Party Opens Slight Lead Over National -TV3 Poll". Dow Jones International News. 8 June 2004.
  46. ↑ "SMALLER PARTIES UP BUT NATIONAL, LABOUR WELL OUT IN FRONT". New Zealand Press Association. 11 July 2004.
  47. 1 2 "Labour opens lead over National; POLLS: The new Maori Party shows up for the first time with the equivalent of five seats in the House". 4 August 2004. 4 August 2004.
  48. ↑ "Poll Puts NZ's Labour Govt Ahead of Natl Party -Report". Dow Jones International News. 16 August 2004.
  49. ↑ "NZ's Labour, National parties poll neck-and-neck". Reuters. 13 September 2004.
  50. ↑ Sutherland, Richard (28 September 2004). "Herald-DigiPoll shows Labour with 40.8% support, National 36%; ACT 1%; Maori Party 1.5%; NZ First 5%; Greens 3.6%". IRN News.
  51. ↑ Small, Vernon (9 October 2004). "LABOUR BOLSTERS ITS LEAD IN POLLS". Dominion Post.
  52. ↑ "NZ voter confidence in economy steady – poll". Reuters. 14 October 2004.
  53. ↑ "NZ voters more confident in economy – poll". Reuters. 15 November 2004.
  54. ↑ Young, Audrey (1 December 2004). "National has slumped in popularity to 30.4 per cent, giving Labour a 20-point lead on 50.1 per cent in the latest Herald-DigiPoll survey". The New Zealand Herald.
  55. ↑ "LABOUR ENJOYS 14 PERCENT LEAD IN LATEST OPINION POLL". New Zealand Press Association. 4 December 2004.
  56. ↑ "NZ Government Extends Lead Over Opposition -Survey". Dow Jones International News. 13 December 2004.
  57. ↑ Garton, Liz (1 February 2005). "Herald-DigiPoll shows National on 35.3% of party vote, Labour on 45.8%; personal popularity Brash 28.2%; Clark 54.9%". IRN News.
  58. ↑ "BRASH SPEECH REDUCES POLL GAP". Dominion Post. 4 February 2005.
  59. ↑ "NZ voter confidence in economy eases off high – poll". Reuters. 14 February 2005.
  60. ↑ "LABOUR RETAINS HEALTHY LEAD IN POLLS DESPITE GROWING CONCERNS". New Zealand Press Association. 20 March 2005.
  61. ↑ "LABOUR AND CLARK BOTH INCREASE LEAD IN LATEST POLL". New Zealand Press Association. 1 April 2005.
  62. ↑ Watkins, Tracy (15 April 2005). "TAMIHERE TALKBACK DEBUT DELAYED". Dominion Post.
  63. ↑ "SEVEN-POINT GAP BETWEEN LABOUR AND NATIONAL, NEW POLL SHOWS". New Zealand Press Association. 17 April 2005.
  64. ↑ "NZ Govt Maintains Poll Lead; Consumer Confidence Improves". Dow Jones International News. 16 May 2005.
  65. ↑ "LABOUR'S LEAD SLIPPING IN NEW POLL". Dominion Post. 17 June 2005.
  66. ↑ Tim, Dower (18 June 2005). "Fairfax New Zealand-AC Nielson poll shows Labour has lost its once-commanding lead over National". IRN News.
  67. ↑ "NZ's Ruling Labour Stumbling in Polls 3 Mos Before Vote". Dow Jones International News. 19 June 2005.
  68. ↑ "NZ Government Slips Further Behind in Latest Opinion Poll". Dow Jones International News. 18 July 2005.
  69. ↑ "LABOUR, NATIONAL LEVEL-PEGGING IN LATEST POLL". New Zealand Press Association. 28 July 2005.
  70. 1 2 "Support For NZ Labour Up 2% To 40% – Latest Morgan Poll Shows". Roy Morgan. 18 August 2005. Retrieved 12 October 2013.
  71. ↑ "LABOUR MAINTAINS LEAD IN LATEST POLL". New Zealand Press Association. 7 August 2005.
  72. ↑ "New Zealand Labour Party stretches poll lead to eight percent ahead of election". Associated Press. 22 August 2005.
  73. ↑ "Polls Show NZ Opposition National Party Gaining on Labour". Dow Jones International News. 28 August 2005.
  74. ↑ "POLL PUTS NATIONAL IN FRONT, TAX CUTS POLICY INFLUENCING VOTERS". New Zealand Press Association. 31 August 2005.
  75. ↑ "NZ opposition extends poll lead on governing party 13 days from election". Associated Press. 4 September 2005.
  76. ↑ "NZ National Party Swing of 16.1% Threatens Clark Labour Government". Roy Morgan. 16 September 2005. Retrieved 12 October 2013.
  77. ↑ "Polls point to cliffhanger New Zealand election". Agence France Presse. 11 September 2005.
  78. 1 2 "One News Poll: NZ Labour Govt on 38% Support". Dow Jones International News. 15 September 2005.
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