Opinion polling for the 2014 New Zealand general election

Opinion polling for the 2014 New Zealand general election has been commissioned throughout the duration of the 50th New Zealand Parliament by various organisations. The five main polling organisations are Fairfax Media (Fairfax Media Ipsos), MediaWorks New Zealand (3 News Reid Research), The New Zealand Herald (Herald Digipoll), Roy Morgan Research, and Television New Zealand ( One News Colmar Brunton). The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

Party vote and key events

Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations.

Graphical summary

The first graph below shows trend lines averaged across all polls for parties that received 5.0% or more of the party vote at the 2011 election. The second graph shows parties that received 1.0% or more (but less than 5.0%) of the party vote, or won an electorate seat, at the 2011 election. Parties which have polled over 1.0% since the 2011 election are also included.

Summary of poll results given below up to and including 17 September 2014. For simplicity, only political parties that received 5.0% or more of the party vote at the 2011 election are shown. Lines give the mean estimated by a GAM smoother, with shaded grey areas showing the corresponding 95% confidence interval for the estimate. Figures to the right show the estimate from the smoothing line at the date of the most recent poll, with 95% confidence interval.

Summary poll results for political parties that received 1.0% or more (but less than 5.0%) of the party vote or won an electorate seat at the 2011 election. It also includes parties contesting the 2014 election which have polled over 1.0% since 2011.

Individual polls

Poll	Date [nb 1]	National	Labour	Green	NZ First	Māori	Mana	ACT	United Future	Con	Internet	Internet Mana
2011 election result [1]	26 Nov 2011	47.31	27.48	11.06	6.59	1.43	1.08	1.07	0.60	2.65	—	—
26 Nov 2011 – Don Brash resigns as leader of ACT over the party's low election result. 13 Dec 2011 – David Shearer replaced Phil Goff as leader of the Labour Party. 14 Dec 2011 – The Fifth National Government is sworn in for a second term, continuing their confidence and supply agreements with the ACT, Maori and United Future parties, but with a reduced seven seat-majority. 20 Dec 2011 – The 50th New Zealand Parliament is sworn in.
Roy Morgan Research [2]	3–15 Jan 2012	47	27.5	14.5	5	1.5	1	0.5	0.5
Roy Morgan Research [3]	16–29 Jan 2012	46	30.5	13	5.5	2	0.5	0.5	0.5
Roy Morgan Research [4]	30 Jan – 12 Feb 2012	45.5	31	11.5	6	1.5	1	1	0.5
3 News Reid Research [5]	19 Feb 2012	46.5	29.4	13.3	5.0	1.3	1.3	0.2		1.4
Roy Morgan Research [6]	13–26 Feb 2012	45.5	31.5	13	5	1.5	1	0.5	0.5
Roy Morgan Research [7]	27 Feb – 11 Mar 2012	48.5	30	12.5	5	1	0.5	0.5	0.5
21 Mar 2012 – Nick Smith resigns from his ministerial portfolios and Cabinet over his conduct in 2010 while Minister of ACC. [8]
One News Colmar Brunton [9] [10]	24–28 March 2012	51	29	11	3.1	0.9	1	0.5	0.2	1.4
Roy Morgan Research [11]	12 Mar – 1 Apr 2012	44	30.5	17	5	1.5	0.5	0.5	0.5
Roy Morgan Research [12]	2–15 Apr 2012	49.5	26.5	12.5	6.5	1.5	1		1
3 News Reid Research [13]	22 Apr 2012	49.8	29.4	14.1	2.3	1.6	0.9	0.2		1.1
Herald-DigiPoll [14]	19–29 Apr 2012	48.1	34.8	9.2	4.9	1.7	0.1	0.0	0.7	0.1
Roy Morgan Research [15]	16–29 Apr 2012	47	28.5	15	5	1.5	0.5	0.5	0.5
Roy Morgan Research [16]	30 Apr – 13 May 2012	44.5	30	15	5.5	1	0.5		1
24 May 2012 – Finance Minister Bill English delivers the 2012 budget, described for the second consecutive year as a "zero" budget. The National government aims to record a $197m surplus in 2014/15, down from $1300m in the 2011 budget. [17] [18]
Roy Morgan Research [19]	14–27 May 2012	44	30.5	13.5	5	2	1	1	0.5
One News Colmar Brunton [9] [20]	26–30 June 2012	47	33	13	2.2	1.3	1	0.7	0	1.4
Roy Morgan Research [21]	28 May – 7 Jun 2012	46	31	12.5	5.5	1.5	1		0.5
3 News Reid Research [22]	10 Jun 2012	45.8	33.2	14.4	2.8	1.4	0.3	0.5		1.1
Roy Morgan Research [23]	8–24 Jun 2012	47.5	32	12	4	1.5	0.5	0.5	0.5
Herald-DigiPoll [24]	18–25 Jun 2012	47.5	34.0	9.1	4.4	1.3	1.7	0.5	0.5	0.5
26 Jun 2012 – The Mixed Ownership Model Bill, which allows the Government to implement its controversial "mixed ownership model" partial privatisation of four state-owned enterprises, passes its third reading. [25] [26]
Roy Morgan Research [27]	25 Jun – 8 Jul 2012	45.5	32.5	13	4.5	1	0.5	0.5	0.5
Roy Morgan Research [28]	9–22 Jul 2012	47.5	30	11	5.5	1	0.5	1	0.5	3
Fairfax Media Ipsos [29]	19–23 Jul 2012	44.9	32.6	11.9	3.6	2.7	1.2	0.6	0.1	0.7
One News Colmar Brunton [9] [30]	28 Jul – 1 Aug 2012	48	32	12	2.5	2.3	0.4	0.5	0.1	0.9
3 News Reid Research [31]	5 Aug 2012	50.6	30.8	11.2	3.0	1.6	0.2	0.1		1.7
Roy Morgan Research [32]	23 Jul – 5 Aug 2012	44	32	14	4	2	1	0.5	0.5	1.5
Roy Morgan Research [33]	13–26 Aug 2012	44.5	32	14.5	5	2.5		1		0.5
29 Aug 2012 – Labour MP Louisa Wall's member's bill to legalise same-sex marriage in New Zealand passes its first reading 80 votes to 40. [34]
Herald-DigiPoll [35]	20–31 Aug 2012	47.9	32.0	10.7	5.5	1.5	0.3	0.2	0.3	1.4
Roy Morgan Research [36]	27 Aug – 9 Sep 2012	46.5	31	12.5	4.5	2.5	1	0.5		1
One News Colmar Brunton [9] [37]	15–19 Sep 2012	45	34	12	1.8	2.9	0.6	0.9	0.1	2
Roy Morgan Research [38]	10–23 Sep 2012	43.5	33	11.5	5	2.5	1.5	0.5		2
Roy Morgan Research [39]	24 Sep – 7 Oct 2012	41.5	33.5	13.5	6.5	1.5		0.5	0.5	2
3 News Reid Research [40]	14 Oct 2012	48.8	33.0	10.6	3.2	1.5	0.1	0.1		2.0
Roy Morgan Research [41]	8–24 Oct 2012	43.5	29	13	7.5	3.5	0.5	0.5		2
One News Colmar Brunton [9] [42]	27–31 Oct 2012	45	32	12	4.9	2.2	1	0.6	0.2	1
Roy Morgan Research [43]	29 Oct – 11 Nov 2012	45.5	32.5	10.5	5	2	1	0.5	0.5	1.5
Roy Morgan Research [44]	12–25 Nov 2012	45	31.5	13.5	6.5	1		0.5	0.5	1.5
One News Colmar Brunton [9] [45]	24–28 Nov 2012	44	35	13	3.6	0.7	0.3	0.6	0.5	1.3
3 News Reid Research [46]	2 Dec 2012	47.0	34.6	12.9	2.0	1.2	0.1	0.2		0.7
Fairfax Media Ipsos [47]	28 Nov – 3 Dec 2012	46.2	34.4	10.5	3.8	1.3	0.6	0.0	0.2	1.4
Roy Morgan Research [48]	26 Nov – 9 Dec 2012	45.5	33.5	11	5	1.5	1	1		1
Roy Morgan Research [49]	2–14 Jan 2013	46	31.5	12	5	2	0.5	0.5	0.5	1.5
Roy Morgan Research [50]	14–27 Jan 2013	46	31.5	13.5	5.5	1.5	0.5	0.5		0.5
22 Jan 2013 – Prime Minister John Key announces a cabinet reshuffle, promoting three MPs to Cabinet and dropping three others. 31 January 2013 – David Carter is elected Speaker of the House, after incumbent Speaker Lockwood Smith resigns from Parliament to become High Commissioner to the United Kingdom.
Roy Morgan Research [51]	27 Jan – 10 Feb 2013	44	34.5	13.5	4	0.5	0.5	0.5	0	2
One News Colmar Brunton [9] [52]	9–13 Feb 2013	49	33	11	3.9	1	0.5	0.1	0.2	0.9
Fairfax Media Ipsos [53]	10–14 Feb 2013	44.9	36.3	10.7	2.8	1.3	1.4	0.4	0.1	1.6
3 News Reid Research [54]	24 Feb 2013	51.4	32.6	10.8	3.4	0.4	0	0.1		0.9
Roy Morgan Research [55]	11–24 Feb 2013	47.5	30.5	12.5	3	2.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	2
Roy Morgan Research [56]	25 Feb – 10 Mar 2013	43.5	32.5	13.5	5	2	0	0.5	0.5	2
Herald-DigiPoll [57]	11–17 Mar 2013	48.5	36.4	9.0	2.5	1.1	0.5	0.1		1.3
Roy Morgan Research [58]	11–24 Mar 2013	44	34.5	13	3	2.5	0.5	0.5	1	1
Roy Morgan Research [59]	1–14 Apr 2013	40.5	35.5	13.5	5	2	0.5	0.5	0.5	1.5
17 Apr 2013 – Labour MP Louisa Wall's member's bill to legalise same-sex marriage in New Zealand passes its final reading 77 votes to 44. [60] 18 April 2013 – Labour and the Greens make their first joint policy announcement, NZ Power, a single buyer of electricity [61]
3 News Reid Research [62]	13–18 Apr 2013	49.4	30.2	11.5	3.8	1.0	1.0	0.5		2.0
One News Colmar Brunton [63] [64]	14–18 Apr 2013	43	36	13	3.0	1.3	0.1	0.1	1.0	1.7
Roy Morgan Research [65]	15–28 Apr 2013	46.5	31.5	11	4.5	1.5	1	0.5	0.5	2
29 Apr 2013 – Sitting MP Parekura Horomia (Labour, Ikaroa-Rawhiti) dies from health complications, aged 62.
Roy Morgan Research [66]	29 Apr – 12 May 2013	44	32	12	5	2	1	1.5	0.5	1.5
10 May 2013 – 49 percent of Mighty River Power is floated on the stock exchange in the first "mixed ownership model" float. The share issue price is set at $2.50, below the government's expected $2.70 to $2.80. 16 May 2013 – Finance Minister Bill English delivers the 2013 budget. The government revised its expected 2014/15 surplus to $75m.
One News Colmar Brunton [63] [67]	18–22 May 2013	49	33	9	3.6	1.3	1.2	0.3	0.7	1.7
3 News Reid Research [68]	17–23 May 2013	47.1	33.1	12.0	2.2	2.2	0.5	0.2		1.5
Fairfax Media Ipsos [69]	19–23 May 2013	49.1	31.9	11.2	3.2	1.6	0.1	0.1	0.3	1.6
Roy Morgan Research [70]	13–26 May 2013	41	35	12	4.5	2	0.5	0.5		2.5
24 May 2013 – Mighty River Power's share price on the NZX falls below its $2.50 listing price. As of 28 August 2014 [update] , it has not traded above its listing price since. [71] 31 May 2013 – United Future is de-registered as a political party by the Electoral Commission after it cannot prove it had at least 500 financial members.
Roy Morgan Research [72]	3–16 Jun 2013	44	33	11.5	6	2	1	0.5	0	2
Herald-DigiPoll [73]	12–23 Jun 2013	48.8	30.9	10.5	5.1	1.8	0.5	0.2	0.3	1.5
19 Jun 2013 – Green Party announces u-turn on quantitative easing policy. [74]
Roy Morgan Research [75]	17–30 Jun 2013	46.5	31.5	13	3.5	1.5	0.5		0.5	2
29 Jun 2013 – Ikaroa-Rawhiti by-election: Meka Whaitiri wins the by-election and retains the electorate for Labour. The Mana Party comes second and the Māori Party third (National did not field a candidate).
Roy Morgan Research [76]	1–14 Jul 2013	47	31	11.5	4.5	2	1.5	0.5		1.5
3 News Reid Research [77]	9–14 Jul 2013	49.5	31.0	12.0	3.9	1.6	0.2	0.2		1.1
Roy Morgan Research [78]	15–28 Jul 2013	51	29	10	4	1.5	1	1	0	1.5
One News Colmar Brunton [9] [79]	27–31 Jul 2013	46	33	14	3.3	1.6	0.2	0.7	0.2	0.6
1 Aug 2013 – The controversial GCSB Amendment Bill passes its second reading.
Roy Morgan Research [80]	29 Jul – 11 Aug 2013	44	34	14	3	2	0.5	0.5		1
Fairfax Media Ipsos [81]	10–15 Aug 2013	48.3	31.6	12.3	2.8	1.0	0.5	0.2		1.4
13 Aug 2013 – United Future is re-registered by the Electoral Commission after confirming it had 500 financial members. 21 August 2013 – The controversial GCSB Amendment Bill passes its third reading and becomes law. 22 August 2013 – David Shearer announced his intention to step down as leader of the Labour Party.
Roy Morgan Research [82]	12–25 Aug 2013	44	31.5	14	5.5	2	0.5	0.5	0.5	1
Roy Morgan Research [83]	26 Aug – 8 Sep 2013	41	32.5	15	6.5	1	0.5	1	0.5	1.5
15 Sep 2013 – David Cunliffe is elected as leader of the Labour Party.
One News Colmar Brunton [9] [84]	14–18 Sep 2013	47	34	12	3.6	1.3	0	0.2	0.3	0.8
Herald-DigiPoll [85]	17–23 Sep 2013	43.7	37.7	11.3	4.4	0.8	0.7	0.1	0	1.0
Roy Morgan Research [86]	16–29 Sep 2013	42	37	11.5	4.5	1	0.5	0.5	0.5	2
Roy Morgan Research [87]	30 Sep – 13 Oct 2013	41.5	37	12.5	5	1.5	0.5	0.5		0.5
12 Oct 2013 – 2013 local body elections: Sitting MP Lianne Dalziel (Labour, Christchurch East) wins the Christchurch mayoralty and subsequently resigns from Parliament.
Fairfax Media Ipsos [88]	19–23 Oct 2013	50.2	33.6	10.7	2.3	0.7	0.7	0.1	0.1	0.7
One News Colmar Brunton [9] [89]	19–23 Oct 2013	45	34	13	3.9	1.4	0.3	0.5	0.1	1.6
Roy Morgan Research [90]	14–27 Oct 2013	42	35.5	11	4.5	1.5	0.5	1	0.5	2.5
3 News Reid Research [91] [92]	3–7 Nov 2013	46.3	32.2	10.4	4.2	1.2	1.3	0.8	0.1	2.8
Roy Morgan Research [93]	28 Oct – 10 Nov 2013	45.5	32	12.5	5	1	1		0.5	1.5
Roy Morgan Research [94]	11–24 Nov 2013	44.5	34	11	3.5	1	1	0.5	0.5	2
30 Nov 2013 – Christchurch East by-election: Poto Williams wins the by-election, retaining the electorate for Labour with 61% of the vote. National comes second, the Green Party third, and the Conservative Party fourth.
Roy Morgan Research [95]	25 Nov – 8 Dec 2013	45	30.5	14.5	5	1.5	1			2
Herald-DigiPoll [96]	9–17 Dec 2013	46.8	35.4	10.8	3.9	1.3	0.9	0	0	0.7
Roy Morgan Research [97]	6–19 Jan 2014	43.5	33.5	12.5	4	2	0.5		0.5	2.5
3 News Reid Research [98]	2 Feb 2014	44.5	33.5	12.4	5.7	1.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	2.1
Roy Morgan Research [99]	20 Jan – 2 Feb 2014	47	33	11	4.5	1.5	1			1.5	0.5
Fairfax Media Ipsos [100]	8–10 Feb 2014	49.4	31.8	10.0	3.6	1.1	0.3	0.5	0.1	2.1
Roy Morgan Research [101]	3–16 Feb 2014	48	30	12	5.5	0.5	1	1	0.5	1	0.5
One News Colmar Brunton [9] [102]	15–19 Feb 2014	51	34	8	3.1	0.9	0.0	0.4	0.3	1.3
Roy Morgan Research [103]	17 Feb – 2 Mar 2014	48.5	30.5	10.5	4.5	1.5	0.5	1	0.5	2.5
10 Mar 2014 – Prime Minister John Key announces that the election would take place on 20 September 2014
Herald-DigiPoll [104]	6–16 Mar 2014	50.8	29.5	13.1	3.6	0.2	0.1	0.8	0	1.3
Roy Morgan Research [103]	3–16 Mar 2014	45.5	31.5	14	3.5	2		0.5	0.5	1.5
One News Colmar Brunton [9] [105]	22–26 Mar 2014	47	31	11	7	0.7	0	0.3	0.1	2.3
3 News Reid Research [106]	30 Mar 2014	45.9	31.2	11.2	4.9	1.5	1.1	1.1	0.1	1.9	0.4
Roy Morgan Research [107]	17–30 Mar 2014	43	32	13	5.5	1.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	2.5	0.5
Roy Morgan Research [108]	31 Mar – 14 Apr 2014	48.5	28.5	11.5	5.5	1	1	0.5	0	2	1
23 Apr 2014 – Labour MP Shane Jones announces he will step down from the Labour Party to take up a government economic development role in the Pacific, focusing on fisheries. [109]
Roy Morgan Research [110]	21 Apr – 4 May 2014	42.5	31	14.5	6	1	1	0.5	0.5	0.5	1.5
Fairfax Media Ipsos [111]	10–12 May 2014	47.6	29.5	12.7	3.7	1.9	0.5	0.9	0.1	1.6
13 May 2014 – The Internet Party is registered as a political party by the Electoral Commission. 15 May 2014 – Finance Minister Bill English delivers the 2014 budget. Surplus for 2014/15-year is $372m. Key initiatives include extending free GP visits to children 12 and under (currently 5 and under), increasing paid maternity leave from 14 to 18 weeks, and increasing Working for Families parental tax credit from $150 to $220 per week. Opposition parties suggest the surplus was produced by "fudging" the numbers and reducing funding for the Christchurch rebuild.
Roy Morgan Research [112]	5–18 May 2014	45.5	30.5	13.5	6	1	1	0.5		1	0.5
One News Colmar Brunton [9] [113]	17–21 May 2014	51	30	11	4.8	1	0	1	0	1	1
3 News Reid Research [114]	25 May 2014	50.3	29.5	10.2	5.6	0.6	0.2	0.5	0.0	2.3	0.6
Roy Morgan Research [115]	19 May – 1 Jun 2014	52.3	29	9	4.5	1.5	0.5	1		1	0.5
27 May 2014 – The Internet Party and Mana Party announce they will contend the election together with a joint party list, under the name Internet–Mana Party. [116] 5 June 2014 – ACT's sole MP, John Banks is found guilty of filing a false electoral return for his 2010 Auckland mayoral election campaign. [117]
Roy Morgan Research [118]	2–15 Jun 2014	49.5	28	12	4	1		0.5	0.0	1.5		2.5
Herald-DigiPoll [119]	6–16 Jun 2014	50.4	30.5	10.7	3.6	0.8		0.7	0.1	1.5		1.4
Fairfax Media Ipsos [120]	14–17 Jun 2014	55.6	23.2	11.9	3.2	0.7		0.7	0.0	0.9		2.1
18 Jun 2014 – Labour leader David Cunliffe is revealed to have written a letter to the New Zealand immigration service for Chinese businessman Donghua Liu when he was his electorate MP in 2003. NZ Herald reporters had asked Cunliffe about Liu the day before revealing the letter, and he denied any involvement with him. [121]
3 News Reid Research [122]	19–25 Jun 2014	49.7	27.3	12.7	3.6	1.5		0.4	0.0	2.8		1.8
One News Colmar Brunton [9] [123]	21–25 Jun 2014	50	29	12	3.8	1.2		0.7	0	1		2
Roy Morgan Research [124]	16–29 Jun 2014	48	28	12	5.5	1.5		1	0	1		2.5
Roy Morgan Research [125]	30 Jun – 13 Jul 2014	51	23.5	15	6	1		0.5	0.5	1		1.5
3 News Reid Research [126]	8–16 Jul 2014	49.4	26.7	12.4	4.3	1.1		0.1	0.2	2.7		2.3
Fairfax Media Ipsos [127]	17 Jul 2014	54.8	24.9	12.4	2.6	0.9		0.1	0.2	1.3		1.2
Herald-DigiPoll [128]	10–17 Jul 2014	54.9	26.5	9.9	4.6	0.5		0	0	1.5		2.2
One News Colmar Brunton [129]	19–23 Jul 2014	52	28	10	4.4	0.6		0.8	0.2	1.7		2
Roy Morgan Research [130]	14–27 Jul 2014	46	30	12	5	1.5		0.5	0.5	1		2.5
31 Jul 2014 – Last sitting day of the 50th New Zealand Parliament.
Fairfax Media Ipsos [131]	9–13 Aug 2014	55.1	22.5	11.3	3.4	1.0		0.2	0.0	3.4		2.1
One News Colmar Brunton [132]	9–13 Aug 2014	50	26	11	5	0.9		0.6	0	2.4		3.9
3 News Reid Research [133]	5–13 Aug 2014	47.5	29.0	13.0	4.6	0.8		0.3	0.2	2.5		2.0
13 Aug 2014 – Nicky Hager releases the book Dirty Politics , based on leaked e-mails from blogger Cameron Slater, alleging various ways National Party figures participated in Slater's "attack politics." Among other claims, Hager suggests one of John Key's staff members accessed the Labour Party online database, which journalist John Armstrong compared to the Watergate break-in. [134]
Roy Morgan Research [135]	4–17 Aug 2014	48	27.5	11.5	6.5	1		0.5	0.5	1		2.5
Herald-DigiPoll [136]	14–20 Aug 2014	50	25.2	13.7	4.3	0.7		0.6	0.4	2.6		2.1
20 Aug 2014 – Writ Day: The Governor-General issues the writ of election, instructing the Electoral Commission to conduct the 2014 general election. Electoral roll closes for printing with 3.06 million eligible voters (late enrollments must cast special declaration votes). Main campaigning season and radio and television advertising begins.
3 News Reid Research [137]	19–25 Aug 2014	45.0	26.4	13.5	6.3	0.7		0.3	0.4	4.6		2.1
Herald-DigiPoll [138]	21–27 Aug 2014	50.7	24.1	11.4	5	1		0.3	0.2	3.3		3.4
Fairfax Media Ipsos [139]	23–27 Aug 2014	50.8	26.1	11.8	4.0	0.7		0.7	0.1	2.7		2.2
One News Colmar Brunton [140]	23–27 Aug 2014	48	28	12	6	0.6		0.4	0	3.2		1.6
30 Aug 2014 – Judith Collins resigns as a minister due to recurring controversies throughout her tenure as Minister of Justice. Her resignation comes following an accusation by Winston Peters that her office came to him with a possible leadership challenge against John Key, and the revelation of an e-mail from blogger Cameron Slater in 2011 that suggests Collins may have undermined a Director of the Serious Fraud Office. [141]
Roy Morgan Research [142]	18–31 Aug 2014	45	26	16	6	0.5		1	0	3.5		1
3 News Reid Research [143]	26 Aug – 1 Sep 2014	46.4	25.9	12.6	5.8	2.0		0.6	0.1	4.2		1.7
Herald-DigiPoll [144]	28 Aug – 3 Sep 2014	50.1	23.8	11.4	6	0.4		0.4	0.3	3.8		3.5
Fairfax Media Ipsos [145]	30 Aug – 3 Sep 2014	54.2	24.3	12.9	3.6	0.3		0.2	0.1	2.4		1.3
One News Colmar Brunton [146]	30 Aug – 3 Sep 2014	50	26	11	7	0.2		0.1	0.1	2.9		2.4
3 News Reid Research [147]	2–8 Sep 2014	46.7	26.1	13.0	5.9	1.3		0.3	0.1	4.7		1.7
Herald-DigiPoll [148]	4–10 Sep 2014	48.6	24.6	11.5	8.1	0.7		0.3	0	3.8		2.3
One News Colmar Brunton [149]	6–10 Sep 2014	46	25	14	7	0.8		1.2	0.2	4		1.4
Fairfax Media Ipsos [150]	6–10 Sep 2014	52.8	22.4	13.0	4.4	1.0		0.7	0.0	3.6		1.4
Roy Morgan Research [151]	1–14 Sep 2014	46.5	24	13.5	8	1.5		0.5	0.5	3.5		1
3 News Reid Research [nb 2] [152]	9–15 Sep 2014	44.5	25.6	14.4	7.1	1.1		0.1	0.1	4.9		2.0
Herald-DigiPoll [153]	11–17 Sep 2014	48.2	25.9	11.1	8.4	1.1		0.5	0.2	3.3		1.0
One News Colmar Brunton [154]	13–17 Sep 2014	45	25	12	8	1.6		0.6	0	4.4		1.8
Fairfax Media Ipsos [155]	13–17 Sep 2014	47.7	26.1	12.0	6.6	0.9		0.3	0.0	4.5		0.9
20 Sep 2014 – Election Day:
2014 election result [156]	20 Sep 2014	47.04	25.13	10.70	8.66	1.32	—	0.69	0.22	3.97	—	1.42
Poll	Date [nb 1]	National	Labour	Green	NZ First	Māori	Mana	ACT	United Future	Con	Internet	Internet Mana

Preferred Prime Minister

Poll	Date [nb 1]	John Key	David Shearer	Winston Peters	Russel Norman
3 News Reid Research [5]	19 Feb 2012	45.8	10.1	5.7
One News Colmar Brunton [10]	24–28 Mar 2012	48	11	3
3 News Reid Research [13]	22 Apr 2012	44.2	10.4	4.2	2.2
Herald-Digipoll [14]	19–29 Apr 2012	63.9	13.1	6.4
One News Colmar Brunton [20]	4 Jun 2012	48	14
3 News Reid Research [22]	10 Jun 2012	40.5	12.3	4.8	4.0
Herald-Digipoll [24]	18–25 Jun 2012	63.5	14.2	7.3	2.7
One News Colmar Brunton [30]	5 Aug 2012	45	13
3 News Reid Research [31]	5 Aug 2012	43.2	8.9	6.2	2.0
Herald-Digipoll [35]	20–31 Aug 2012	65.6	12.9	5.8	1.8
One News Colmar Brunton [37]	23 Sep 2012	44	12	4
3 News Reid Research [40]	14 Oct 2012	41.0	8.5	5.0	2.4
One News Colmar Brunton [42]	4 Nov 2012	42	11	6
One News Colmar Brunton [45]	2 Dec 2012	39	15
3 News Reid Research [46]	2 Dec 2012	37.4	12.6	5.0	2.2
One News Colmar Brunton [52]	13 Feb 2013	44	15	5	2
Herald-Digipoll [57]	21 Mar 2013	63	18.5	4	2.4
Herald-DigiPoll [73]	12–23 Jun 2013	65.2	12.4	6.4
3 News Reid Research [77]	9–14 Jul 2013	42	12.1
One News Colmar Brunton [79]	27–31 Jul 2013	41	13	4	3
22 August 2013 – David Shearer announced his intention to step down as leader of the Labour Party. 15 September 2013 – David Cunliffe is elected as leader of the Labour Party.
Poll	Date [nb 1]	John Key	David Cunliffe	Winston Peters	Russel Norman
One News Colmar Brunton [84]	22 Sep 2013	42	12	4
Herald-DigiPoll [85]	17–23 Sep 2013	55.8	16.8	6.2	3.7
One News Colmar Brunton [89]	19–23 Oct 2013	43	12	4
Herald on Sunday/Key Research [157]	5–9 Dec 2013	45	18
Herald-DigiPoll [96]	9–17 Dec 2013	61.9	16.5	7.3	3.4
3 News Reid Research [98] [158]	23–29 Jan 2014	39.0	10.8	5.9
Fairfax Media-Ipsos [100]	8–10 Feb 2014	51.2	18.2
One News Colmar Brunton [102]	15–19 Feb 2014	42	8	4
Herald-DigiPoll [104]	6–16 Mar 2014	66.5	11.1	6.5	4.5
3 News Reid Research [106] [158]	18–26 Mar 2014	42.6	9	6.9
One News Colmar Brunton [105]	22–26 Mar 2014	42	8	4
Fairfax Media-Ipsos [111]	10–12 May 2014	48.6	13.4	3.4	1.8
3 News Reid Research [114] [158]	15–21 May 2014	43.1	9.8	7.8
One News Colmar Brunton [113]	17–21 May 2014	43	10
Herald-DigiPoll [119]	6–16 Jun 2014	65.9	12.7	6.2	2.5
Fairfax Media-Ipsos [120]	14–17 Jun 2014	51.4	11.1	2.6	2.7
Fairfax Media-Ipsos [127]	17 Jul 2014	58.2	14.2	2.2	2.1
Herald-DigiPoll [138]	21–27 Aug 2014	67.8	11.6	8.2	3.8
Herald-DigiPoll [148]	4–10 Sep 2014	61.6	17.9	7.8	3.3

Electorate polling

The leftmost party columns are the parties, and their sitting Members of Parliament, that held the seats as a result of the 2011 election.

Epsom

Poll	Date [nb 1]	ACT David Seymour	National Paul Goldsmith	Labour Michael Wood	Green Julie Anne Genter	Conservative Christine Rankin	Mana Patrick O'Dea	Independent Grace Haden
Colmar Brunton [159] [nb 3]	10 August 2014	32	44	10	9	4	0.8	0.3
		45	31	9	10	4	0.8	0.1

Tāmaki Makaurau

Poll	Date [nb 1]	Māori Rangi McLean	Labour Peeni Henare	Mana Kereama Pene	Green Marama Davidson
Māori TV Reid Research [160]	24 July – 16 August 2014	28	27	14	7

Te Tai Tokerau

Poll	Date [nb 1]	Mana Hone Harawira	Labour Kelvin Davis	Māori Te Hira Paenga	Independent Clifton Dearlove
Māori TV Reid Research [161] [162]	July – August 2014	38	37	9.4	1.4

Te Tai Tonga

Poll	Date [nb 1]	Labour Rino Tirikatene	Māori Ngaire Button	Green Dora Roimata Langsbury	Mana Georgina Beyer
Māori TV Reid Research [163]	July 2014	48	17	9	9

Waiariki

Poll	Date [nb 1]	Māori Te Ururoa Flavell	Mana Annette Sykes	Labour Rawiri Waititi	Independent Coalition Pat Spellman
Māori TV Reid Research [164]	1 September 2014	50	21	17	2

See also

• Opinion polling for the 2011 New Zealand general election
• Opinion polling for the 2017 New Zealand general election
• Politics of New Zealand

Notes

1. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
2. Graphs above include polls up to and including this one.
3. This poll was taken twice, before and after respondents were informed that John Key was encouraging National Party supporters to give their electorate vote to the ACT Party candidate.

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