Opinion polling for the 2020 New Zealand general election

Last updated November 15, 2024

Several polling firms conducted opinion polls during the term of the 52nd New Zealand Parliament in the lead up to the 2020 general election, which elects the 53rd Parliament. The 52nd Parliament was elected on 23 September 2017 and dissolved on 6 September 2020. The 2020 election was originally due to take place on Saturday 19 September 2020, but due to a second COVID-19 outbreak it was delayed until Saturday 17 October 2020.^[1]

Very few polls have been conducted compared to previous electoral cycles.^[2] The two regular polls are Television New Zealand ( 1 News ), conducted by Colmar Brunton, and MediaWorks New Zealand (Newshub) Reid Research, with less frequent polls from Roy Morgan Research. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

Party vote

Graphical summary

The first graph shows trend lines averaged across all polls for all political parties that are routinely included by polling companies. The second graph shows parties that received less than 10% of the party vote in the 2017 election, and are routinely included by polling companies.

Individual polls

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. The 'party lead' column shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. In the instance of a tie, both figures are shaded and displayed in bold. Percentages may not add to 100 percent due to polls not reporting figures for all minor parties and due to rounding. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations.

The parties shown in the table are National (NAT), Labour (LAB), New Zealand First (NZF), Green (GRN), ACT, Opportunities (TOP), Māori (MRI), New Conservative (NCP) and Advance New Zealand (ANZ). Other parties have also registered in some polls, but are not listed in this table.

Date^{[nb 1]}	Polling organisation	Sample size	NAT	LAB	NZF	GRN	ACT	TOP	MRI	NCP	ANZ	Lead

17 Oct 2020	2020 election result	N/A	25.6	50.0	2.6	7.9	7.6	1.5	1.2	1.5	1.0	24.4

8–15 Oct 2020	Newshub–Reid Research	1000	31.1	45.8	3.5	6.3	7.4	1.3	0.6	1.7	0.3	14.7
10–14 Oct 2020	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1005	31	46	2.6	8	8	1.1	0.6	1.5	0.9	15
3–7 Oct 2020	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1007	32	47	2.4	6	8	1.8	0.2	1.3	0.9	15
3 Oct 2020	Advance voting for the election begins. The Electoral Commission estimates 60% of voters will cast their vote before election day.^[3]
Sep 2020	Roy Morgan Research	911	28.5	47.5	2.5	9.5	7.0	1.5	0.5	–	–	19
23–27 Sep 2020	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1005	33	47	1.4	7	8	1.0	0.8	1.4	0.6	14
16–23 Sep 2020	Newshub–Reid Research	1000	29.6	50.1	1.9	6.5	6.3	0.9	1.5	2.1	–	20.5
17–21 Sep 2020	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1008	31	48	2.4	6	7	1.1	0.9	1.6	0.8	17
Aug 2020	Roy Morgan Research	897	28.5	48.0	2.5	11.5	6.0	1.0	0.5	–	–	19.5
17 Aug 2020	Jacinda Ardern announces the election is postponed to 17 October 2020, over concerns relating to a recent rise in cases of COVID-19.^[1]
Jul 2020	Roy Morgan Research	899	26.5	53.5	1.5	8	6.5	1.5	0.5	–	N/A	27
25–29 Jul 2020	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1004	32	53	2	5	4.8	0.1	1	1.2	N/A	21
16–24 Jul 2020	Newshub–Reid Research	1000	25.1	60.9	2.0	5.7	3.3	0.4	0.4	0.9	N/A	35.8
14 Jul 2020	Todd Muller resigns and Judith Collins is elected as leader of the National Party.
Jun 2020	Roy Morgan Research	879	27	54.5	1.5	9	5	1.5	1	–	N/A	27.5
20–24 Jun 2020	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1007	38	50	1.8	6	3.1	0.5	0.9	0.7	N/A	12
27 Apr – 24 May 2020	Roy Morgan Research	894	26.5	56.5	2.5	7	3.5	1	1.5	–	N/A	30
22 May 2020	Todd Muller is elected leader of the National Party, replacing Simon Bridges.
16–20 May 2020	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1003	29	59	2.9	4.7	2.2	0.5	1.2	0.4	N/A	30
8–16 May 2020	Newshub–Reid Research	1000	30.6	56.5	2.7	5.5	1.8	0.1	0.9	1.0	N/A	25.9
14 May 2020	2020 Budget is delivered.
Apr 2020	Roy Morgan Research	–	30.5	55	2.5	7	2.5	–	–	–	N/A	24.5
Mar 2020	Roy Morgan Research	–	37	42.5	3	11.5	3.5	–	–	–	N/A	5.5
25 March 2020	Nationwide Level 4 restrictions are implemented due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Feb 2020	Roy Morgan Research	–	37	40.5	5	10.5	3.5	–	–	–	N/A	3.5
8–12 Feb 2020	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1004	46	41	3.3	5	1.7	0.1	1.1	0.8	N/A	5
23 Jan – 1 Feb 2020	Newshub–Reid Research	1000	43.3	42.5	3.6	5.6	1.8	0.6	0.9	0.7	N/A	0.8
Jan 2020	Roy Morgan Research	–	40	40	2.5	10.5	3	–	–	–	N/A	Tie
28 Jan 2020	Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announces that the election will take place on 19 September 2020.
23–27 Nov 2019	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1006	46	39	4.3	7	1.6	0.9	0.5	0.8	N/A	7
7–11 Nov 2019	Stuff–YouGov	1005	38	41	8	8	2	1	1	–	N/A	3
5–9 Oct 2019	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1008	47	40	4.2	7	0.9	0.5	0.8	0.4	N/A	7
2–9 Oct 2019	Newshub–Reid Research	1000	43.9	41.6	4.0	6.3	1.4	1.1	0.7	1	N/A	2.3
20–24 Jul 2019	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1003	45	43	3.3	6	1	0.5	1.1	0.8	N/A	2
4–8 Jun 2019	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1002	44	42	5	6	0.7	0.5	0.5	0.6	N/A	2
30 May – 7 Jun 2019	Newshub–Reid Research	1000	37.4	50.8	2.8	6.2	0.8	0.1	0.5	1	N/A	13.4
30 May 2019	The 2019 Budget is delivered.
6–10 Apr 2019	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1009	40	48	4.3	6	0.7	–	0.5	0.4	N/A	8
15–23 Mar 2019	Business NZ–Reid Research	1000	41.3	49.6	2.3	3.9	–	–	–	–	N/A	8.3
15 Mar 2019	Christchurch shootings targeting mosques kill 51 people and injure a further 49. Terror threat level is raised from low to high.
9–13 Feb 2019	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1006	42	45	3	6	0.9	0.6	1.4	0.2	N/A	3
24 Jan – 2 Feb 2019	Newshub–Reid Research	1000	41.6	47.5	2.9	5.1	0.4	0.5	0.8	1.1	N/A	5.9
24–28 Nov 2018	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1008	46	43	4	5	0.6	0.3	0.9	–	N/A	3
15–19 Oct 2018	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1006	43	45	5	7	0.3	0.3	0.6	0.3	N/A	2
2 Aug 2018	Ardern returns as Prime Minister after six weeks of maternity leave.
28 Jul – 1 Aug 2018	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1007	45	42	5	6	1.1	0.4	0.9	0.1	N/A	3
21 Jun 2018	Ardern gives birth. Winston Peters becomes Acting Prime Minister.
17–24 May 2018	Newshub–Reid Research	1000^[4]	45.1	42.6	2.4	5.7	0.2	1.6	0.9	1.1	N/A	2.5
19–23 May 2018	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1007	45	43	4.2	5	0.7	0.5	0.9	0.2	N/A	2
17 May 2018	The 2018 Budget is delivered.
7–11 Apr 2018	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1007	44	43	5	6	0.3	0.4	1.2	0.2	N/A	1
8 Apr 2018	Marama Davidson is elected co-leader of the Green Party.^[5]
27 Feb 2018	Simon Bridges is elected leader of the National Party.^[6]
10–14 Feb 2018^{[nb 2]}	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1007	43	48	2.6	5	0.5	0.6	0.7	0.1	N/A	5
13 Feb 2018	Bill English announces he will stand down as National leader and resign from Parliament.^[7]
18–28 Jan 2018	Newshub–Reid Research	1000	44.5	42.3	3.8	6	0.2	1.4	0.8	0.3	N/A	2.2
2–28 Jan 2018	Roy Morgan Research	1000	39	42.5	6	9	0.5	1.5	1	–	N/A	3.5
27 Nov – 10 Dec 2017	Roy Morgan Research	–	40.5	37	8	10	0.5	–	–	–	N/A	3.5
29 Nov – 5 Dec 2017	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1007	46	39	5	7	0.1	1.2	0.9	–	N/A	7
30 Oct – 12 Nov 2017	Roy Morgan Research	887	40.5	39.5	5	10	0.5	2	1.5	–	N/A	1
26 Oct 2017	Jacinda Ardern is sworn in as Prime Minister of New Zealand.^[8]
2–15 Oct 2017	Roy Morgan Research	894	46	31	6.5	11	0.5	2	1.5	–	N/A	15

23 Sep 2017	2017 election result ^[9]	N/A	44.4	36.9	7.2	6.3	0.5	2.4	1.2	0.2	N/A	7.6

Date^{[nb 1]}	Polling organisation	Sample size	NAT	LAB	NZF	GRN	ACT	TOP	MRI	NCP	ANZ	Lead

UMR and Curia polls

These polls are typically unpublished and are used internally for Labour (UMR) and National (Curia). Although these polls are sometimes leaked or partially leaked, their details are not publicly available for viewing and scrutinising. Because not all of their polls are made public, it is likely that those that are released are cherry-picked and therefore may not truly indicate ongoing trends.

Date^{[nb 1]}	Polling organisation	NAT	LAB	NZF	GRN	ACT	Lead
13 Oct 2020	UMR Research	29	50	2.7	6	7	21
25 Aug – 2 Sep 2020	UMR Research	29	53	3.9	3.2	6.2	24
12 Aug 2020	UMR Research	28	52	5.1	5.4	5.9	24
28 Jul 2020	Curia	36	47	3	6	3	11
30 Jun 2020	Curia	34	55	–	–	–	21
26 May – 1 Jun 2020	UMR Research	30	54	5	4	–	24
21–27 April 2020	UMR Research	29	55	6	5	3	26
14 April 2020	Curia	31	49	6	9	5	18
8 April 2020	UMR Research	35	49	5	5	2	14
17 Feb 2020	UMR Research	38	42	6	9	3	4
2 Feb 2020	Curia	39	41	7	7	2	2
23 Jul 2019	UMR Research	38	42	–	9	–	4
9 Nov 2018	UMR Research	37	46	–	–	–	9
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result ^[9]	44.4	36.9	7.2	6.3	0.5	7.5

Preferred prime minister

Some opinion pollsters ask voters who they would prefer as prime minister. The phrasing of questions and the treatment of refusals, as well as "don't know" answers, differ from poll to poll.

Graph of preferred prime minister polling before the 2020 election. Only includes people who polled above 1% at least once. Smoothing is set to span 45%.

Date^{[nb 1]}	Polling organisation	Sample size	Jacinda Ardern	Judith Collins	Winston Peters	James Shaw	Marama Davidson	David Seymour	Leighton Baker	Billy Te Kahika	Todd Muller	Simon Bridges	Bill English	Lead
8–15 Oct 2020	Newshub–Reid Research	1,000	52.6	18.4	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	34.2
10–14 Oct 2020	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,005	55	20	1	0.4	0.1	3	0.4	0.4	–	0.4	–	35
3–7 Oct 2020	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,007	50	23	1	0.1	0.5	2	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.2	27
23–27 Sep 2020	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,005	54	23	1	0.1	0.2	2	0.1	0.4	–	0.1	0.1	31
16–23 Sep 2020	Newshub–Reid Research	1,000	53.2	17.7	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	35.5
17–21 Sep 2020	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,008	54	18	2	0.1	–	2	0.3	0.2	–	0.1	0.3	36
25–29 Jul 2020	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,004	54	20	1	0.1	0.1	1	0.1	0.7	0.2	–	–	34
16–24 Jul 2020	Newshub–Reid Research	1,000	62	14.6	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	47.4
14 Jul 2020	Todd Muller resigns and Judith Collins is elected as leader of the National Party.
20–24 Jun 2020	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,007	54	2	2	0.1	0.1	0.8	0.1	–	13	0.4	0.2	41
26 May – 1 Jun 2020	UMR Research	–	65	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	13	–	–	52
22 May 2020	Todd Muller is elected leader of the National Party.
16–20 May 2020	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,003	63	3	1	0.1	0.1	0.4	0.3	–	0.2	5	0.1	58
8–16 May 2020	Newshub–Reid Research	1,000	59.5	3.1	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	4.5	–	51
21–27 Apr 2020	UMR Research	–	65	7	3	–	–	–	–	–	–	7	–	58
8–12 Feb 2020	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,004	42	3	3	0.1	0.5	0.8	–	–	–	11	0.2	31
23 Jan – 1 Feb 2020	Newshub–Reid Research	1,000	38.7	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	10.6	–	28.1
23–27 Nov 2019	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,006	36	4	3	0.3	–	0.6	–	–	–	10	–	26
5–9 Oct 2019	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,008	38	5	4	0.3	0.3	0.4	–	–	0.2	9	0.1	29
2–9 Oct 2019	Newshub–Reid Research	1,000	38.4	5.2	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	6.7	–	31.7
20–24 Jul 2019	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,003	41	6	2	–	0.1	0.4	–	–	0.1	6	0.2	35
4–8 Jun 2019	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,002	45	6	5	0.1	–	0.5	–	–	–	5	0.1	39
30 May – 7 Jun 2019	Newshub–Reid Research	1,000	49	7.1	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	4.2	–	41.9
6–10 Apr 2019	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,006	51	5	3	0.2	–	0.2	–	–	–	5	0.3	46
9–13 Feb 2019	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,006	44	6	3	0.2	–	0.1	–	–	–	6	0.4	38
24 Jan – 2 Feb 2019	Newshub–Reid Research	1,000	41.8	6.2	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	5.0	–	35.6
24–28 Nov 2018	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,008	39	6	4	0.1	–	0.1	–	–	–	7	0.4	32
15–19 Oct 2018	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,006	42	5	4	0.1	0.1	–	–	–	–	7	1	35
2 Aug 2018	Jacinda Ardern returns as Prime Minister after six weeks of maternity leave.
28 Jul – 1 Aug 2018	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,007	40	2	5	0.3	0.3	0.2	–	–	–	10	0.9	30
21 Jun 2018	Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern gives birth. Winston Peters becomes Acting Prime Minister.
17–24 May 2018	Newshub–Reid Research	1,000^[10]	40.2	3.7	4.6	–	–	–	–	–	–	9	4.2	31.2
19–23 May 2018	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,007	41	2	4	0.2	–	0.1	–	–	–	12	0.9	29
7–11 Apr 2018	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,007	37	2	5	–	–	0.3	–	–	–	10	2	27
8 Apr 2018	Marama Davidson is elected co-leader of the Green Party.^[5]
27 Feb 2018	Simon Bridges is elected leader of the National Party.^[6]
10–14 Feb 2018^{[nb 2]}	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,007	41	0.4	4	0.4	–	0.1	–	–	–	1	20	21
18–28 Jan 2018	Newshub–Reid Research	1,000^[4]	37.9	0.2	5.7	0.1	–	–	–	–	–	0.5	25.7	12.2
29 Nov – 5 Dec 2017	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,007	37	0.7	5	0.4	–	–	–	–	–	0.3	28	9

Government approval rating

Government approval rating prior to the 2020 election. No polling was conducted in 2018 or 2019.

Date^{[nb 1]}	Polling organisation	Sample size	Right direction	Wrong direction	Do not know	Lead
Sep 2020	Roy Morgan Research	911	70.5	19.5	10	51
Aug 2020	Roy Morgan Research	897	71	19	10	52
Jul 2020	Roy Morgan Research	899	71.5	19	9.5	52.5
Jun 2020	Roy Morgan Research	879	72	18.5	9.5	53.5
May 2020	Roy Morgan Research	900	76	17.5	6.5	58.5
Apr 2020	Roy Morgan Research	900	77	14	9	63
Mar 2020	Roy Morgan Research	900	60.5	25.5	14	35
Feb 2020	Roy Morgan Research	900	59	27	14	32
Jan 2020	Roy Morgan Research	900	66.5	20	12.5	46.5
27 Nov – 10 Dec 2017	Roy Morgan Research		68	18	14	50
29 Nov – 5 Dec 2017	1 News–Colmar Brunton	1,007	51	26	23	25
30 Oct – 12 Nov 2017	Roy Morgan Research	887	66.5	20	13.5	46.5
24 Oct – 1 Nov 2017	Horizon Research	1,068	49	24	28	21
2–15 Oct 2017	Roy Morgan Research	894	58.5	27.5	14	31

Electorate polling

Auckland Central

**Electorate vote**
Date^{[nb 1]}	Polling organisation	LAB	NAT		GRN		NZF		TOP		ACT		SNZ	TEA	IND
Date^{[nb 1]}	Polling organisation	Helen White	Emma Mellow	Nikki Kaye	Chlöe Swarbrick	Denise Roche	Jenny Marcroft	Frank Edwards	Tuariki Delamere	Mika Haka	Felix Poole	Brooke van Velden	Vernon Tava	Dominic Hoffman Dervan	Joshua Love
24–30 Sep 2020	Q+A Colmar Brunton	35	30	N/A	26	N/A	1	N/A	—	N/A	4	N/A	2	1	0.4
September 2020	Newshub Nation–Reid Research	42.3	26.6	N/A	24.2	N/A	2.2	N/A	1.0	N/A	0.9	N/A	—	—	—
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result	39.82	N/A	45.25	N/A	9.72	N/A	1.98	N/A	2.33	N/A	0.52	N/A	N/A	N/A

**Party vote**
Date^{[nb 1]}	Polling organisation	LAB	NAT	GRN	ACT	NZF	TOP	SNZ	VNZ	SCP
24–30 Sep 2020	Q+A Colmar Brunton	47	28	13	6	1.7	2.2	0.6	0.4	0.3
September 2020	Newshub Nation–Reid Research	56.2	23.1	12.1	3.9	1.6	1.4	—	—	—
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result	37.71	39.15	13.87	1.05	3.87	3.14	N/A	N/A	0.01

East Coast

**Electorate vote**
Date^{[nb 1]}	Polling organisation	LAB	NAT		GRN
Date^{[nb 1]}	Polling organisation	Kiri Allan	Tania Tapsell	Anne Tolley	Meredith Akuhata-Brown	Gareth Hughes
22–24 Sep 2020	Community Engagement	40.5	35	N/A	4.9	N/A
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result	33.51	N/A	46.18	N/A	7.13

**Party vote**
Date^{[nb 1]}	Polling organisation	LAB	NAT	GRN	NZF
22–24 Sep 2020	Community Engagement	50	31	4.4	4.2
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result	36.62	44.03	4.58	9.89

Northland

**Electorate vote**
Date^{[nb 1]}	Polling organisation	NAT	LAB	NZF		GRN		NCP	ACT
Date^{[nb 1]}	Polling organisation	Matt King	Willow-Jean Prime	Shane Jones	Winston Peters	Darleen Tana Hoff-Nielsen	Peter Hughes	Mel Taylor	Mark Cameron	Craig Nelson
29 Jul – 4 Aug 2020	Q+A–Colmar Brunton	46	31	15	N/A	3	N/A	2	1	N/A
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result	38.30	21.61	N/A	34.81	N/A	4.51	0.46	N/A	0.30

**Party vote**
Date^{[nb 1]}	Polling organisation	LAB	NAT	ACT	NZF	GRN	TOP
29 Jul – 4 Aug 2020	Q+A–Colmar Brunton	41	38	8	7	4.7	0.4
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result	30.12	46.35	0.47	13.17	6.05	1.98

Hauraki-Waikato

**Electorate vote**
Date^{[nb 1]}	Polling organisation	LAB	MRI
Date^{[nb 1]}	Polling organisation	Nanaia Mahuta	Donna Pokere-Phillips	Rahui Papa
29–30 Sep 2020	Māori TV–Curia	61	14	N/A
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result	68.85	N/A	27.36

**Party vote**
Date^{[nb 1]}	Polling organisation	LAB	MRI	NAT	GRN	NZF	ACT
29–30 Sep 2020	Māori TV–Curia	61	8	5	3	3	1
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result	61.5	11.3	6.87	5.14	8.34	0.09

Ikaroa-Rāwhiti

**Electorate vote**
Date^{[nb 1]}	Polling organisation	LAB	MRI		GRN	ANZ	OUT
Date^{[nb 1]}	Polling organisation	Meka Whaitiri	Heather Te Au-Skipworth	Marama Fox	Elizabeth Kerekere	Waitangi Kupenga	Kelly Thurston
23–25 Sep 2020	Māori TV–Curia	46	19	N/A	3	2	0
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result	53.68	N/A	35.27	8.41	N/A	N/A

**Party vote**
Date^{[nb 1]}	Polling organisation	LAB	MRI	NZF	GRN	NAT	ACT
23–25 Sep 2020	Māori TV–Curia	62	10	3	3	2	1
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result	64.7	13	7.16	4.86	4.8	0.13

Tāmaki Makaurau

**Electorate vote**
Date^{[nb 1]}	Polling organisation	LAB	MRI		GRN
Date^{[nb 1]}	Polling organisation	Peeni Henare	John Tamihere	Shane Taurima	Marama Davidson
6–7 Oct 2020	Māori TV–Curia	35	29	N/A	14
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result	47.51	N/A	28.25	21.58

**Party vote**
Date^{[nb 1]}	Polling organisation	LAB	MRI	GRN	NZF	NAT	ACT
6–7 Oct 2020	Māori TV–Curia	57	9	7	5	3	1
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result	59.34	10.96	7.24	9.53	6.55	0.16

Te Tai Hauāuru

**Electorate vote**
Date^{[nb 1]}	Polling organisation	LAB	MRI
Date^{[nb 1]}	Polling organisation	Adrian Rurawhe	Debbie Ngarewa-Packer	Howie Tamati
23–25 Sep 2020	Māori TV–Curia	38	20	N/A
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result	43.86	N/A	39.21

**Party vote**
Date^{[nb 1]}	Polling organisation	LAB	MRI	NAT	GRN	NZF	ACT	TOP
23–25 Sep 2020	Māori TV–Curia	51	10	4	4	3	2	1
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result	58.47	14.96	6.54	6.53	7.26	0.08	2.85

Te Tai Tokerau

**Electorate vote**
Date^{[nb 1]}	Polling organisation	LAB	MRI	ANZ
Date^{[nb 1]}	Polling organisation	Kelvin Davis	Mariameno Kapa-Kingi	Billy Te Kahika
6–7 Oct 2020	Māori TV–Curia	36	18	1
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result	52.60	N/A	N/A

**Party vote**
Date^{[nb 1]}	Polling organisation	LAB	NZF	NAT	MRI	GRN	ACT
6–7 Oct 2020	Māori TV–Curia	58	6	4	7	7	1
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result	57.94	11.12	7.42	6.48	6.35	0.16

Te Tai Tonga

**Electorate vote**
Date^{[nb 1]}	Polling organisation	LAB	MRI		GRN
Date^{[nb 1]}	Polling organisation	Rino Tirikatene	Tākuta Ferris	Mei Reedy-Taare	Ariana Paretutanganui-Tamati	Metiria Turei
4–5 Oct 2020	Māori TV–Curia	37	11	N/A	2	N/A
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result	44.44	N/A	20.97	N/A	24.5

**Party vote**
Date^{[nb 1]}	Polling organisation	LAB	NAT	MRI	GRN	NZF	ACT
4–5 Oct 2020	Māori TV–Curia	53	16	5	5	2	2
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result	55.8	12.47	8.4	8.12	7.8	0.2

Waiariki

**Electorate vote**
Date^{[nb 1]}	Polling organisation	LAB	MRI		VNZ
Date^{[nb 1]}	Polling organisation	Tāmati Coffey	Rawiri Waititi	Te Ururoa Flavell	Hannah Tamaki
30 Sep – 1 Oct 2020	Māori TV–Curia	38	26	N/A	2
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result	53.74	N/A	46.26	N/A

**Party vote**
Date^{[nb 1]}	Polling organisation	LAB	MRI	GRN	NAT	NZF	ACT
30 Sep – 1 Oct 2020	Māori TV–Curia	47	19	7	3	2	2
23 Sep 2017	2017 election result	58.95	19.71	3.86	4.75	7.42	0.08

Forecasts

The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections assume the new electorate of Takanini will be won by either Labour or National^[11] and that Botany will be returned to National,^[12]^[13] but otherwise assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party. Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.

When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.^[14]

Source	Seats in Parliament^[i]							Likely government formation(s)
Source	NAT	LAB	NZF	GRN	ACT	MRI	Total	Likely government formation(s)
Roy Morgan^[15] Sep 2020 poll	38	61	0	12	9	0	120	Labour (61)
1 News–Colmar Brunton^[16] 10–14 Oct 2020 poll	40	59	0	11	10	0	120	Labour–Green (70)
Newshub–Reid Research^[17] 8–15 Oct 2020 poll	41	61	0	8	10	0	120	Labour (61)
2020 result	33	65	0	10	10	2	120	Labour (65)

↑ Forecasted seats are calculated using the Electoral Commission's MMP seat allocation calculator, based on polling results.

Notes

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
1 2 75% of respondents were polled before Bill English announced his resignation.

Related Research Articles

The New Zealand Labour Party, also known simply as Labour, is a centre-left political party in New Zealand. The party's platform programme describes its founding principle as democratic socialism, while observers describe Labour as social democratic and pragmatic in practice. The party participates in the international Progressive Alliance. It is one of two major political parties in New Zealand, alongside its traditional rival, the National Party.

New Zealand is a representative democracy in which members of the unicameral New Zealand Parliament gain their seats through elections. General elections are usually held every three years; they may be held at an earlier date at the discretion of the prime minister, but that usually only happens in the event of a vote of no confidence or other exceptional circumstances. A by-election is held to fill an electorate vacancy arising during a parliamentary term. Election day is always a Saturday, but advance voting is allowed in the lead-up to it. The most recent general election took place on 14 October 2023.

Mount Albert is a parliamentary electorate based around the suburb of Mount Albert in Auckland, New Zealand, returning one member of Parliament (MP) to the House of Representatives. It has elected only Labour Party MPs since it was first contested at the 1946 election. The electorate is currently held by Helen White and was recently represented by Jacinda Ardern, formerly Prime Minister of New Zealand, who was first elected in a 2017 by-election and stepped down from parliament on 15 April 2023. Before her, Mt Albert was represented by David Shearer from 13 June 2009 to 31 December 2016; it was represented by Helen Clark from the 1981 general election until her resignation from Parliament on 17 April 2009.

Dame Jacinda Kate Laurell Ardern is a former New Zealand politician who served as the 40th prime minister of New Zealand and leader of the Labour Party from 2017 to 2023. She was a Labour member of Parliament (MP) as a list MP from 2008 to 2017, and for Mount Albert from 2017 to 2023.

Munokoa Poto Williams is a New Zealand Labour Party politician and a member of Parliament. She was elected in a 2013 by-election and served as Minister of Conservation and Minister for Disability Issues in the Sixth Labour Government.

The 2017 New Zealand general election took place on Saturday 23 September 2017 to determine the membership of the 52nd New Zealand Parliament. The previous parliament was elected on 20 September 2014 and was officially dissolved on 22 August 2017. Voters elected 120 members to the House of Representatives under New Zealand's mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system, a proportional representation system in which 71 members were elected from single-member electorates and 49 members were elected from closed party lists. Around 3.57 million people were registered to vote in the election, with 2.63 million (79.8%) turning out. Advance voting proved popular, with 1.24 million votes cast before election day, more than the previous two elections combined.

Various organisations commissioned opinion polls for the 2017 New Zealand general election during the term of the 51st New Zealand Parliament (2014–2017). Roy Morgan Research polled monthly, with MediaWorks New Zealand and Television New Zealand polling less frequently. The last The New Zealand Herald was in December 2015, and Fairfax Media discontinued their poll after the 2014 election. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varied by organisation and date, but were typically 800–1000 participants with a margin of error of just over 3%.

Jennifer Teresia Salesa is a New Zealand politician and member of the Labour Party who has served as a Member of Parliament since 2014. She was first elected as MP for Manukau East, and after its abolition in 2020 won the replacement electorate of Panmure-Ōtāhuhu. She served as a Cabinet Minister in the Sixth Labour Government as Minister for Building and Construction, Minister of Customs and Minister for Ethnic Communities from 2017 until 6 November 2020.

The 2020 New Zealand general election was held on Saturday 17 October 2020 to determine the composition of the 53rd New Zealand Parliament. Voters elected 120 members to the House of Representatives, 72 from single-member electorates and 48 from closed party lists. Two referendums, one on the personal use of cannabis and one on euthanasia, were also held on the same day. Official results of the election and referendums were released on 6 November.

The 2017 Mount Albert by-election was a New Zealand by-election held in the Mount Albert electorate on 25 February 2017 during the 51st New Zealand Parliament. The seat was vacated following the resignation of David Shearer, a former Leader of the New Zealand Labour Party.

Helen Ione White is a New Zealand politician. In 2020 she became a Member of Parliament in the House of Representatives for the Labour Party. In 2023, she was chosen by Labour to contest the Mount Albert electorate, previously held by former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. White won the seat, holding it for Labour, but by a significantly reduced margin of 18 votes.

The 52nd New Zealand Parliament was a meeting of the legislature in New Zealand, which opened on 7 November 2017 following the 2017 general election and dissolved on 6 September 2020. The New Zealand Parliament comprises the Sovereign and the House of Representatives, which consists of 120 members.

The 2017 New Zealand Labour Party leadership election was held on 1 August 2017 to choose the next Leader of the New Zealand Labour Party. The election was won by Deputy Leader and Mount Albert MP Jacinda Ardern.

Harete Makere Hipango is a New Zealand politician. She was a member of parliament in the House of Representatives for the National Party and sat on the Māori Affairs Committee.

The 2020 New Zealand cannabis referendum was a non-binding referendum held on 17 October 2020 in conjunction with the 2020 general election and a euthanasia referendum, on the question of whether to legalise the sale, use, possession and production of recreational cannabis. It was rejected by New Zealand voters. The form of the referendum was a vote for or against the proposed "Cannabis Legalisation and Control Bill". Official results were released by the Electoral Commission on 6 November 2020 with 50.7% of voters opposing the legalisation and 48.4% in support.

The 53rd New Zealand Parliament was a meeting of the legislature in New Zealand. It opened on 25 November 2020 following the 17 October 2020 general election, and dissolved on 8 September 2023 to trigger the next election. It consisted of 120 members of Parliament (MPs) with five parties represented: the Labour and Green parties, in government, and the National, Māori and ACT parties, in opposition. The Sixth Labour Government held a majority in this Parliament. Jacinda Ardern continued as prime minister until her resignation on 25 January 2023; she was succeeded by Chris Hipkins.

An election for the parliamentary leadership of the New Zealand National Party took place in the National Party parliamentary caucus on 22 May 2020. Todd Muller and Nikki Kaye stood against the existing leader Simon Bridges and his deputy leader Paula Bennett following poor polling results. Muller and Kaye won the votes and became the new leader and deputy leader respectively.

Gaurav Mrinal Sharma is a New Zealand doctor and former Member of Parliament. Elected in 2020, Sharma was a Member of Parliament (MP) for the Labour Party, representing the electorate of Hamilton West. In August 2022, he made allegations of bullying within the Labour Party, and was expelled from its caucus in the same month. He briefly served as an independent, before resigning from Parliament in October 2022. He announced the formation of the New Zealand Momentum Party, an unregistered political party, in November 2022. In December, Sharma contested and lost the 2022 Hamilton West by-election to National MP Tama Potaka.

Several polling firms conducted opinion polls during the term of the 53rd New Zealand Parliament (2020–2023) for the 2023 New Zealand general election. The regular polls are the quarterly polls produced by Television New Zealand conducted by Verian and Discovery New Zealand (Newshub) conducted by Reid Research, along with monthly polls by Roy Morgan, and by Curia. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

The 2022 Hamilton West by-election was a by-election in New Zealand's Hamilton West electorate. The seat became vacant due to the resignation of former Labour Party MP Gaurav Sharma on 18 October 2022 after expulsion from the party caucus.

References

1 2 Deguara, Brittney (17 August 2020). "Live: Jacinda Ardern delays election to October 17 amid coronavirus outbreak". Stuff. Retrieved 17 August 2020.
↑ Michael Appleton (5 November 2018). "Why the drought in New Zealand opinion polling matters". The Spinoff. Archived from the original on 5 November 2018. Retrieved 5 November 2018.
↑ "Hundreds of sites to open for advance voting from today". Radio NZ. Archived from the original on 2 October 2020. Retrieved 2 October 2020– via 1 News.
1 2 "TV3 poll results". Reid Research. Archived from the original on 28 May 2018. Retrieved 27 May 2018.
1 2 "Marama Davidson elected new Greens co-leader". Newshub . 8 April 2018. Archived from the original on 8 April 2018. Retrieved 8 April 2018.
1 2 "Simon Bridges is National Party's new leader, Paula Bennett remains deputy". The New Zealand Herald . 27 February 2018. Archived from the original on 27 February 2018. Retrieved 27 February 2018.
↑ "Former PM Bill English resigns as National Party leader". Newshub . 13 February 2018. Archived from the original on 13 February 2018. Retrieved 13 February 2018.
↑ Hurley, Emma (26 October 2017). "As it happened: Jacinda Ardern sworn in as Prime Minister". Newshub . Archived from the original on 27 October 2017. Retrieved 27 October 2017.
1 2 "Official Count Results – Overall Status". Wellington: Electoral Commission. 10 October 2017. Archived from the original on 7 October 2017. Retrieved 24 October 2017.
↑ "TV3 Poll Results | Reid Research | Independent Field Market Research". Archived from the original on 9 March 2019.
↑ Keogh, Brittany (6 August 2020). "Election 2020: Doctor, businesswoman among candidates for new Takanini seat". Stuff. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
↑ "National selects Christopher Luxon as its new candidate for Botany". The New Zealand Herald. 5 November 2019. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
↑ Ensor, Jamie (15 September 2020). "NZ Election 2020: Jami-Lee Ross won't contest Botany electorate". Newshub. Retrieved 15 September 2020.
↑ Schwartz, Dominique (20 September 2014). "John Key's National Party takes out New Zealand election". ABC News. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
↑ "Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern set to sweep to a 'crushing' election victory on Saturday". Roy Morgan. 14 October 2020.
↑ Whyte, Anna (15 October 2020). "1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll: Labour maintains strong lead over National, Greens climb". 1 News. TVNZ. Retrieved 15 October 2020.
↑ O'Brien, Tova (16 October 2020). "NZ Election 2020: Newshub-Reid Research poll shows Labour with slim majority as National makes slight gain". Newshub.

This page is based on this Wikipedia article
Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply.
Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.

[17] Forecasted seats are calculated using the Electoral Commission's MMP seat allocation calculator, based on polling results.

[dates-3] 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.

[resign1-8] 1 2 75% of respondents were polled before Bill English announced his resignation.

[Stuff:_delayed-1] 1 2 Deguara, Brittney (17 August 2020). "Live: Jacinda Ardern delays election to October 17 amid coronavirus outbreak". Stuff. Retrieved 17 August 2020.

[2] Michael Appleton (5 November 2018). "Why the drought in New Zealand opinion polling matters". The Spinoff. Archived from the original on 5 November 2018. Retrieved 5 November 2018.

[4] "Hundreds of sites to open for advance voting from today". Radio NZ. Archived from the original on 2 October 2020. Retrieved 2 October 2020– via 1 News.

[reidmethodology-5] 1 2 "TV3 poll results". Reid Research. Archived from the original on 28 May 2018. Retrieved 27 May 2018.

[Marama_Davidson_wins-6] 1 2 "Marama Davidson elected new Greens co-leader". Newshub . 8 April 2018. Archived from the original on 8 April 2018. Retrieved 8 April 2018.

[NZHerald01-7] 1 2 "Simon Bridges is National Party's new leader, Paula Bennett remains deputy". The New Zealand Herald . 27 February 2018. Archived from the original on 27 February 2018. Retrieved 27 February 2018.

[Newshub3-9] "Former PM Bill English resigns as National Party leader". Newshub . 13 February 2018. Archived from the original on 13 February 2018. Retrieved 13 February 2018.

[Newshub2-10] Hurley, Emma (26 October 2017). "As it happened: Jacinda Ardern sworn in as Prime Minister". Newshub . Archived from the original on 27 October 2017. Retrieved 27 October 2017.

[2017result-11] 1 2 "Official Count Results – Overall Status". Wellington: Electoral Commission. 10 October 2017. Archived from the original on 7 October 2017. Retrieved 24 October 2017.

[12] "TV3 Poll Results | Reid Research | Independent Field Market Research". Archived from the original on 9 March 2019.

[13] Keogh, Brittany (6 August 2020). "Election 2020: Doctor, businesswoman among candidates for new Takanini seat". Stuff. Retrieved 10 September 2020.

[14] "National selects Christopher Luxon as its new candidate for Botany". The New Zealand Herald. 5 November 2019. Retrieved 10 September 2020.

[15] Ensor, Jamie (15 September 2020). "NZ Election 2020: Jami-Lee Ross won't contest Botany electorate". Newshub. Retrieved 15 September 2020.

[16] Schwartz, Dominique (20 September 2014). "John Key's National Party takes out New Zealand election". ABC News. Retrieved 10 September 2020.

[18] "Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern set to sweep to a 'crushing' election victory on Saturday". Roy Morgan. 14 October 2020.

[19] Whyte, Anna (15 October 2020). "1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll: Labour maintains strong lead over National, Greens climb". 1 News. TVNZ. Retrieved 15 October 2020.

[20] O'Brien, Tova (16 October 2020). "NZ Election 2020: Newshub-Reid Research poll shows Labour with slim majority as National makes slight gain". Newshub.

[1]

[2]

[nb 1]

[3]

[4]

[5]

[6]

[nb 2]

[7]

[8]

[9]

[10]

[11]

[12]

[13]

[14]

[i]

[15]

[16]

[17]