Opinion polling for the 2002 New Zealand general election

Last updated

Opinion polling was commissioned throughout the duration of the 46th New Zealand Parliament in the lead up to the 2002 election by various organisations.

Contents

Party vote

Polls are listed in the table below in chronological order. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey firms.

Graphical summary

Opinion polls New Zealand 2002.svg
Local regression of polls conducted
Opinion polls New Zealand 2002 small parties.svg
Local regression of polls conducted, zoomed into smaller parties

Individual polls

PollDate [nb 1] Labour National Alliance ACT Green NZ First United
Future
Prog
1999 election result [1] 27 Nov 199938.7430.507.747.045.164.26N/A [nb 2]
TV3/CM Research poll [2] 28 Feb 200051305443
One News Colmar Brunton [2] 28 Feb 200050314.354.32.1
TV3/CM Research poll [3] 18 Apr 200053283451
TV3/CM Research poll [4] 26 Jun 200046344452
Herald-DigiPoll 30 Jun 2000433281036
June 2000 – Dover Samuels resigns from Cabinet pending an investigation into alleged sex crimes committed before he entered politics.
TV3/CM Research poll [5] 22 Aug 200047363452
NBR-Compaq 7–10 Sep 20003641647
TV3/CM Research poll [6] 31 Oct 200044395342
TV3/CM Research poll [7] 20 Feb 200149344.53.64.71.5
TV3-NFO 9 Apr 200150323.74.2520.5
NBR-Compaq 5 May 20014332566.5
One News Colmar Brunton 14 May 2001444126
TV3-NFO 11 Jun 200149313.5273.3
8 October 2001 – Bill English is elected leader of the National Party.
One News Colmar Brunton 9–12 Oct 2001463923.153.5
NBR-Compaq 19 Oct 200143333.85.283.6
One News Colmar Brunton 12 Nov 200144404352
TV3/CM Research poll [8] 17 Dec 200145353363
TV3/CM Research poll [9] 27 Feb 200254302.2362.2
April 2002 – Jim Anderton leaves the Alliance and Laila Harré replaces him as leader.
NBR HP-Invent 7 Jun 200253290.54.57.23.31.3
TV3-NFO 10 Jun 200256241.23.993.1<0.5<0.5
Herald-DigiPoll 10 Jun 200249.931.20.14.77.72.50.10.7
One News Colmar Brunton 17 Jun 200253270.54932
Herald-DigiPoll 26 Jun 200252.125.70.54.48.33.82
Herald-DigiPoll 3 Jul 200251.224.60.45.79.64.40.11.4
TV3-NFO 5 Jul 200251241.1510.85.71.1
Herald-DigiPoll 11 Jul 20024824.50.45.810.16.40.71.5
TV3-NFO 11 Jul 200248241.26.37.97.90.90.8
One News Colmar Brunton 15 Jul 2002462718961
Herald-DigiPoll 17 Jul 200246.723.10.45.511.38.31.11.3
TV3-NFO 18 Jul 200246251.46980.70.7
Herald-DigiPoll 22 Jul 200240.823.60.48.16.910.26.61.3
One News Colmar Brunton 25 Jul 200244211781040.5
TV3-NFO 25 Jul 200243211.48983.91.2
Herald-DigiPoll 26 Jul 200238.823.21.38.999.65.41.4
2002 election result [10] 27 Jul 200241.2620.931.277.147.0010.386.691.70

Preferred Prime Minister

Individual polls

PollDate [nb 1] Helen Clark Jenny Shipley Winston Peters Jim Anderton
TV3/CM Research poll [2] 28 Feb 20003613--
One News Colmar Brunton [2] 28 Feb 20004316--
TV3/CM Research poll [3] 18 Apr 20004213--
TV3/CM Research poll [5] 22 Aug 20003116--
TV3/CM Research poll [6] 18 Apr 20002814--
TV3/CM Research poll [4] 20 Feb 20013516--
TV3/CM Research poll [7] 20 Feb 20013013--
TV3-NFO 9 Apr 20013611
One News Colmar Brunton 14 May 200137173
PollDate [nb 1] Helen Clark Bill English Winston Peters Jim Anderton
One News Colmar Brunton 9–12 Oct 20014121
One News Colmar Brunton 12 Nov 20014019
TV3/CM Research poll [8] 17 Dec 20014117--
TV3/CM Research poll [9] 27 Feb 2002411053
One News Colmar Brunton 17 Jun 2002521742
One News Colmar Brunton 15 Jul 2002481972

Electorate polling

Wellington Central

Candidate vote

PollDate [nb 1] Marian Hobbs Hekia Parata Robert Reid
Dominion Post BRC 2-4 Jul 200232151

Wigram

Candidate vote

PollDate [nb 1] Jim Anderton Mike Mora Alec Neill Sean Gourley
UMR Research 22 Jul 200240.626.4192

Waitakere

Candidate vote

PollDate [nb 1] Lynne Pillay Laila Harré Marie Hasler
Consumer Link 24 Jul 2002332524

Coromandel

Candidate vote

PollDate [nb 1] Sandra Goudie Max Purnell Jeanette Fitzsimons
Consumer Link 24 Jul 2002332724

Te Tai Tokerau

Candidate vote

PollDate [nb 1] Dover Samuels Mere
Mangu
Marae DigiPoll 6–17 Jul 2002449

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  2. United Future was founded in 2000 and Jim Anderton's Progressive Party was founded in 2002, thus neither party contested the 1999 general election.

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References

  1. "1999 GENERAL ELECTION - Summary of Overall Results". Wellington: Electoral Commission. 27 November 1999. Retrieved 15 December 2017.
  2. 1 2 3 4 "Labour rockets up the polls with Clark top choice". Waikato Times . 29 February 2000. p. 2.
  3. 1 2 "PM, Labour honeymoon continues". The Press . 18 April 2000. p. 7.
  4. 1 2 "Labour support falls - poll". The Evening Post . 27 June 2000. p. 2.
  5. 1 2 "Labour retains lead". The Press . 22 August 2000. p. 2.
  6. 1 2 "Labour dips but still ahead - poll". The Evening Post . 31 October 2000. p. 2.
  7. 1 2 "Labour further ahead despite controversy". Waikato Times . 20 February 2001. p. 11.
  8. 1 2 "Latest poll sees Labour maintain lead". Waikato Times . 17 December 2001. p. 2.
  9. 1 2 "Poll news birthday lift for PM". The Press . 27 February 2002. p. 6.
  10. "Official Count Results -- Overall Status". Wellington: Electoral Commission. 10 August 2002. Retrieved 15 December 2017.