Opinion polling for the 2011 New Zealand general election

Last updated

Opinion polling has been commissioned throughout the duration of the 49th New Zealand Parliament and in the leadup to the 2011 election by various organisations. The main four are Television New Zealand, TV3, The New Zealand Herald and Roy Morgan Research. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

Contents

Party vote and key events

Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey firms.

Graphical summary

The first graph below shows trend lines averaged across all polls for parties that have consistently polled on average above the 5.0% threshold. The second graph shows the parties polling over 1% which do not consistently poll above the 5.0% threshold.

Summary of poll results given below up to and including 11 November 2011. For simplicity, only political parties that have consistently polled above the 5.0% threshold are shown. Lines give the mean estimated by a Loess smoother, with shaded grey areas showing the corresponding 95% confidence interval for the estimate. Figures to the right show the estimate from the smoothing line at the date of the most recent poll, with 95% confidence interval. The vertical line indicates the date of the general election: 26 November 2011. NZ opinion polls 2009-2011 -parties.png
Summary of poll results given below up to and including 11 November 2011. For simplicity, only political parties that have consistently polled above the 5.0% threshold are shown. Lines give the mean estimated by a Loess smoother, with shaded grey areas showing the corresponding 95% confidence interval for the estimate. Figures to the right show the estimate from the smoothing line at the date of the most recent poll, with 95% confidence interval. The vertical line indicates the date of the general election: 26 November 2011.
Summary poll results for political parties trending between 1.0% and the 5.0% threshold, based on the same smoother as the above figure. NZ opinion polls 2009-2011 -smallparties.png
Summary poll results for political parties trending between 1.0% and the 5.0% threshold, based on the same smoother as the above figure.

Individual polls

PollDate [nb 1] National Labour Green ACT Māori Prog United
Future 		NZ First Mana Con
2008 election result 8 Nov 200844.9333.996.723.652.390.910.874.07N/A [nb 2]
11 Nov 2008 – Phil Goff replaces Helen Clark as leader of Labour Party.
19 Nov 2008 – National Party leader John Key is sworn in as Prime Minister of New Zealand.
Roy Morgan Research [1] 17–30 Nov 200844.032.59.54.03.50.51.03.5
Roy Morgan Research [2] 1–14 Dec 200847.031.59.54.02.00.51.03.0
Roy Morgan Research [3] 2–18 Jan 200948.033.08.03.03.50.51.02.5
Roy Morgan Research [4] 19 Jan – 1 Feb 200948.031.09.03.53.50.51.03.0
Roy Morgan Research [5] 2–15 Feb 200948.5328.52.53.50.511.5
One News Colmar Brunton [6] 14–19 Feb 200957.031.07.02.02.01.0
3 News Reid Research [7] 18 Feb 200960.027.07.01.22.10.21.6
Roy Morgan Research [5] 16 Feb – 1 Mar 200956268.51.53.50.5<0.52.5
Roy Morgan Research [5] 2–15 Mar 200954.52982.520.50.52
One News Colmar Brunton [6] 28 Mar – 1 Apr 200956.028.06.03.03.01.0
Roy Morgan Research [5] 23 Mar – 5 Apr 200950.5289.543.51<0.52.5
One News Colmar Brunton [8] 5 Apr 200957.031.07.02.02.0
Roy Morgan Research [5] 6–19 Apr 20095032.58.52.53.50.5<0.52
Roy Morgan Research [5] 20 Apr – 3 May 20095530.5722<0.50.52
Roy Morgan Research [9] 4–17 May 200952.031.59.52.02.50.50.51.0
Roy Morgan Research [9] 18–31 May 200952.031.08.52.02.00.50.51.
28 May 2009  – 2009 New Zealand budget presented to Parliament.
30 May 2009 – Metiria Turei replaces Jeanette Fitzsimons as female co-leader of the Green Party.
13 Jun 2009 – Mount Albert by-election: David Shearer retains the seat for Labour.
Roy Morgan Research [9] 1–14 Jun 200952.033.07.52.52.50.50.51.0
Roy Morgan Research [5] 22 Jun – 5 Jul 20095431.58130.50.51
Roy Morgan Research [5] 6–19 Jul 200952301013.50.5<0.52
One News Colmar Brunton [6] 25–29 Jul 20095631713.1
Roy Morgan Research [5] 20 Jul – 2 Aug 200953.53472.51.50.5<0.51
Roy Morgan Research [5] 3–16 Aug 200953.532.58.5120.5<0.52
21 Aug 2009 – The citizens-initiated corporal punishment referendum is held, with voters responding 87.4% "No" to the question "Should a smack as part of good parental correction be a criminal offence in New Zealand?"
Roy Morgan Research [5] 17–30 Aug 200956.529.581.51.50.50.51.5
Roy Morgan Research [10] 31 Aug – 13 Sep 200951.5337.522.50.50.52.5
One News Colmar Brunton [11] 19–24 Sep 200954334332
Roy Morgan Research [5] 21 Sep – 4 Oct 200957.5286.51.52.51<0.52
3 News Reid Research [12] 18 Oct 200959.927.26.91.72.41.0
Roy Morgan Research [5] 5–18 Oct 200953307.52.530.50.52.5
Roy Morgan Research [5] 19 Oct – 1 Nov 200955.5297.513.50.50.51.5
Roy Morgan Research [5] 2–15 Nov 200951.5336.52.521<0.52.5
One News Colmar Brunton [13] [14] 21–25 Nov 200953317231
Roy Morgan Research [5] 16–29 Nov 200953.530.571.53.5<0.5<0.52.5
26 Nov 2009 – Labour leader Phil Goff makes race-related "nationhood" speech.
3 News Reid Research [15] 13 Dec 200955.230.87.81.81.70.11.5
Roy Morgan Research [5] 30 Nov – 13 Dec 20095427.59.51.51.50.5<0.54
Roy Morgan Research [5] 4–17 Jan 20105330822.50.50.52.5
Roy Morgan Research [5] 18–31 Jan 201052326230.50.53.5
Herald-DigiPoll [16] 29 Jan – 10 Feb 201056344.6<12.8<1<11.7
Roy Morgan Research [5] 1–14 Feb 2010523381.52.50.5<0.52
3 News Reid Research [17] 16 Feb 201056.329.67.31.62.40.20.21.5
One News Colmar Brunton [18] 14–17 Feb 201054345222
Roy Morgan Research [5] 15–28 Feb 201053.531.581.52.5<0.50.52
Roy Morgan Research [5] 1–14 Mar 201051.533.56.52.5210.52
Roy Morgan Research [19] [20] 22 Mar – 4 Apr 201049337.5230.513
One News Colmar Brunton [21] 10–14 Apr 20105433522
3 News Reid Research [22] 25 Apr 201052.133.88.21.61.90.51.5
Roy Morgan Research [5] 5–18 Apr 201049.5347.5140.50.52.5
Roy Morgan Research [23] 3–16 May 201048.533.592.52.50.50.53
20 May 2010  – 2010 New Zealand budget presented to Parliament.
Roy Morgan Research [23] 17–30 May 201052.5309.513.50.50.52.5
One News Colmar Brunton [24] [25] 30 May 201049.033.07.01.63.6
Roy Morgan Research [23] 31 May – 13 Jun 201050.5339.513<0.511.5
Roy Morgan Research [23] 21 Jun – 4 Jul 201053298.523<0.50.53
Roy Morgan Research [26] 5–18 Jul 20104931.59230.50.54.5
Roy Morgan Research [26] 19 Jul – 1 Aug 20105133.56.523.50.50.52
One News Colmar Brunton [27] [28] 8 Aug 201049.035.07.02.72.32.3
3 News Reid Research [28] [29] 8 Aug 201054.530.68.52.21.50.21.5
Roy Morgan Research [30] 2–15 Aug 20105033.57.51.530.53.5
17 Aug 2010 – Chris Carter is removed from the Labour caucus and becomes an independent MP. Labour is reduced to 42 seats but the Opposition remains at 53 seats.
Roy Morgan Research [30] 16–29 Aug 201049.532.58.51313.5
4 Sep 2010 – A 7.1-magnitude earthquake strikes Canterbury.
Roy Morgan Research [30] 30 Aug – 12 Sep 201048.534821.50.514.5
Roy Morgan Research [30] 20 Sep – 3 Oct 201049.536.580.52.52.5
One News Colmar Brunton [31] 26 Sep 2010543281.12.32.4
Roy Morgan Research [32] 4–17 Oct 201052.5338.50.51.50.52.5
3 News Reid Research [33] 11 Oct 201053.832.67.60.92.40.31.2
Roy Morgan Research [34] 18–31 Oct 201050.5338.51.530.50.52.5
Roy Morgan Research [34] 1–14 Nov 20105032.5912.50.53
20 Nov 2010 – Mana by-election: Kris Faafoi retains the seat for Labour, but with a significantly reduced majority.
Roy Morgan Research [34] 15–28 Nov 201051337130.50.53
Roy Morgan Research [34] 29 Nov – 12 Dec 201048.53571.52.50.513
3 News Reid Research [35] 13 Dec 201055.531.27.31.31.70.11.9
One News Colmar Brunton [36] 19 Dec 201055334.50.92.23.1
Herald-DigiPoll [37] 30 Dec 201052.437.25.30.91.22.5
Roy Morgan Research [38] 4–16 Jan 2011552971.52.50.54.5
26 Jan 2011 – John Key announces policy of partial privatisation of some state-owned assets.
Roy Morgan Research [39] 17–30 Jan 20114934.56.5135.5
2 February 2011 – John Key announces the election will be held on 26 November 2011.
Roy Morgan Research [39] 31 Jan – 13 Feb 201152.533.58.50.51.50.52.5
One News Colmar Brunton [40] 20 Feb 2011513381.32.33.6
3 News Reid Research [41] 20 Feb 201154.630.98.20.62.33.3
Roy Morgan Research [42] 14–27 Feb 2011493581.533
22 Feb 2011 – A 6.3-magnitude earthquake strikes Canterbury, with 181 casualties.
23 Feb 2011 – Hone Harawira defects from Maori Party to become an independent MP, and later forming the Mana Party. Government majority reduced from 16 to 14 seats; Maori Party reduced to four seats.
5 Mar 2011 – Botany by-election: Jami-Lee Ross retains the seat for National, but with a reduced majority.
Roy Morgan Research [42] 28 Feb – 13 Mar 201152.532.580.51.50.54
Roy Morgan Research [42] 21 Mar – 3 Apr 20115131.5821.50.55
One News Colmar Brunton [43] 10 Apr 2011543461.11.42.7
3 News Reid Research [44] 17 Apr 201157.527.17.71.72.50.22.8
Roy Morgan Research [45] 4–17 Apr 20115132813.50.50.53
30 Apr 2011 – Don Brash replaces Rodney Hide as leader of the ACT Party.
Roy Morgan Research [45] 18 Apr – 1 May 201152.5317.5120.50.54.5
Roy Morgan Research [45] 2–15 May 2011532810220.50.53
19 May 2011  – 2011 New Zealand budget is presented to Parliament.
Herald-DigiPoll [46] 19–25 May 201154.433.75.51.71.5002.7
One News Colmar Brunton [47] 29 May 2011523462.51.41.60.9
3 News Reid Research [48] 29 May 201153.032.86.52.21.60.22.40.5
Roy Morgan Research [49] 16–29 May 201149366.51.52.50.52.5
Roy Morgan Research [50] 30 May – 12 Jun 201153307330.52.5
Roy Morgan Research [50] 13–26 Jun 20115430.55.52.530.53.5
25 Jun 2011 – Te Tai Tokerau by-election: Hone Harawira is re-elected under the Mana Party.
Herald-DigiPoll [51] 27 Jun 201151.236.16.61.91.71.20.5
Roy Morgan Research [52] 27 Jun – 10 Jul 20114933.57.532.50.53
3 News Reid Research [53] 10 Jul 201155.129.99.11.70.80.02.20.7
14 Jul 2011 – Labour releases their proposed tax package, including the introduction of a capital gains tax. [54]
One News Colmar Brunton [55] 17 Jul 20115327103.130.32.40.5
Roy Morgan Research [56] 11–24 Jul 20115231.57.5230.52.50.5
Fairfax Media–Research International [57] [58] 21–25 Jul 201156296.42.21.20.22.00.2
Herald-DigiPoll [59] 30 Jul 201152.333.18.31.42.00.90.6
Roy Morgan Research [60] 25 Jul – 7 Aug 201151.532721.50.540.5
One News Colmar Brunton [61] 21 Aug 2011563061.71.40.52.30.9
3 News Reid Research [62] 21 Aug 201154.028.89.32.21.50.02.20.9
Herald-DigiPoll [63] 19–26 Aug 20115231.59.81.21.80.12.40.2
Roy Morgan Research [64] 15 – 28 Aug 20115229.5921.50.53.51
Fairfax Media–Research International [58] 25–29 Aug 201157.125.711.01.11.60.12.20.6
Roy Morgan Research [65] 29 Aug – 11 Sep 201157267.51.52.50.53.51
9 September 2011 – The 2011 Rugby World Cup opens in Auckland, with unexpected overcrowding of the Auckland Waterfront fan zone and transport delays resulting in some people missing the opening ceremony and game. [66]
13 September 2011 – The Government takes control of the Auckland Waterfront fan zone from Auckland Council. [66]
Roy Morgan Research [67] 12 – 25 Sep 20115130.511.51.52.50.510.5
30 Sep 2011 – Credit agencies Fitch and Standard & Poor's both downgrade New Zealand's long-term credit rating from AA+ to AA. [68]
Fairfax Media–Research International [69] 28 Sep 20115428101.51.30.42.30.2
One News Colmar Brunton [70] 2 Oct 2011562991.31.10.01.90.6
3 News Reid Research [71] 2 Oct 201157.426.69.81.60.80.01.90.
Roy Morgan Research [72] 26 Sep – 9 Oct 201155.5289.51.520.520.5
5 Oct 2011 – MV Rena runs aground on the Astrolabe Reef causing an oil spill in Tauranga, described as New Zealand's worst environmental disaster.
Roy Morgan Research [73] 10–23 Oct 201153.529.59.51212.50.5
26 Oct 2011 – Writ Day: The writ of election is issued by the Chief Justice on behalf of the Governor General, instructing the Electoral Commission to conduct the election. [74] Electoral roll closes for printing with 3.01 million eligible voters. [note a] [75] Main campaigning season begins.
Herald-DigiPoll [76] 20–27 Oct 201153.530.39.51.51.20.12.80.1
3 News Reid Research [77] 30 Oct 201152.330.29.41.51.40.02.40.9
Fairfax Media–Research International [78] 27–31 Oct 201152.631.39.71.21.20.20.11.51.1
Herald-DigiPoll [79] 28 Oct – 2 Nov 201154.229.110.10.91.90.51.70.11.1
One News Colmar Brunton [80] 3 Nov 2011563090.91.30.12.20.3
Roy Morgan Research [81] 24 Oct – 6 Nov 20115326121204.51.0
Fairfax Media–Research International [82] 3–7 Nov 201152.525.912.61.01.50.20.32.80.7
Herald-DigiPoll [83] 3–9 Nov 201149.528.712.61.50.50.73.70.71
One News Colmar Brunton [84] 10 Nov 2011542891.52.10.82.90.20.5
3 News Reid Research [85] 13 Nov 201153.329.910.20.71.40.02.41.0
11 Nov 2011 – A potentially damaging conversation between John Key and political ally John Banks is recorded without their knowledge.
Herald-DigiPoll [86] 10–16 Nov 201149.929.112.61.70.70.14.90.40.6
One News Colmar Brunton [87] 17 Nov 20115126131.61.60.32.21.31.4
3 News Reid Research [88] 17 Nov 201150.227.413.01.81.30.03.51.01.1
Roy Morgan Research [89] 7 – 18 Nov 20115324.5131.53031.0
Fairfax Media–Research International [90] 17 – 21 Nov 201154.026.012.00.71.10.00.14.01.1
Herald-DigiPoll [91] 17 – 23 Nov 201150.928.011.81.80.40.05.20.31.3
One News Colmar Brunton [92] 24 Nov 20115028101.72.00.14.21.02.4
3 News Reid Research [93] 24 Nov 201150.826.013.41.01.50.03.11.11.8
Roy Morgan Research [94] [note b] 22 – 24 Nov 201149.523.514.51.510.56.50.5
26 Nov 2011 – Election Day: A total of 3,049,212 voters were registered to vote in the election. [95] A total of 2,257,336 votes were cast, including the 188,730 advance votes, with a turnout of 73.5%. [96] [97]
2011 election result [97] 26 Nov 201147.3127.4811.061.071.43– [note c] 0.606.591.082.65
PollDate [nb 1] National Labour Green ACT Māori Prog United
Future 		NZ First Mana Con

Preferred Prime Minister

Individual polls

PollDate [nb 1] John
Key 		Helen
Clark 		Phil
Goff 		Winston
Peters
Colmar Brunton [6] 14–19 Feb 20095162
Colmar Brunton [6] 28 Mar – 1 Apr 20095161
TV ONE Colmar Brunton [8] 5 Apr 20095196
Colmar Brunton [6] 25–29 Jul 20095472
3 News-Reid Research [12] 18 Oct 200951.68.24.73.0
ONE News Colmar Brunton [13] [14] 21–25 Nov 20095452
26 Nov 2009 – Labour leader Phil Goff makes race-related "nationhood" speech.
3 News-Reid Research [15] 13 Dec 200949.96.18.02.1
Herald Digipoll [16] 29 Jan – 10 Feb 20105876.8
ONE News Colmar Brunton [21] 10–14 Apr 2010488
ONE News Colmar Brunton [24] May 2010466
ONE News Colmar Brunton [27] [28] 8 Aug 2010459
3 News-Reid Research [28] [29] [98] 8 Aug 201048.72.37.43.7
ONE News Colmar Brunton [31] 26 Sep 2010528
One News-Colmar Brunton [36] 19 Dec 201049.16.84.9
3 News-Reid Research [41] 20 Feb 201149.16.84.9
ONE News Colmar Brunton [40] 20 Feb 201148273
One News-Colmar Brunton [43] 10 Apr 201155113
3 News-Reid Research [44] 17 Apr 201152.46.8
Herald Digipoll [46] 27 May 201167.711.9
One News-Colmar Brunton [47] 29 May 2011538
3 News-Reid Research [48] 29 May 201148.27.6
One News-Colmar Brunton [55] 17 Jul 2011549
Herald Digipoll [59] 30 Jul 201170.37.99.32.9
One News-Colmar Brunton [61] 21 Aug 2011578
Herald Digipoll [76] 29 Oct 201170.613.73.5
One News-Colmar Brunton [80] 3 Nov 20115612
Fairfax Media-Research International [90] 17–21 Nov 201151.512.53.5
PollDate [nb 1] John
Key 		Helen
Clark 		Phil
Goff 		Winston
Peters

Other polls

Epsom electorate vote

PollDate [nb 1] John
Banks 		Paul
Goldsmith 		David
Parker 		David
Hay
2008 election result8 November 200856.1 [a] 21.8 [a] 13.6 [a] 7.4 [a]
New Zealand Herald-Key Research [99] 9 October 201118.932.94.31
Fairfax Media Research International [100] 17 November 201129.145.514.67.7
One News Colmar Brunton [101] 14–17 November 201130411711
2011 general election, final result26 November 201144.1037.8010.456.01

^[a] The candidates in the 2008 general election were Rodney Hide, Richard Worth, Kate Sutton, and Keith Locke respectively.

Voting method referendum

Concern over validity

A new polling company, Horizon, has challenged some of the existing polls' validity as they exclude undecided voters and those who chose not to vote. [102] Horizon claim that this may be up to 30% in some polls. [102] However, Horizon's own polling methods have been criticised for their use of a self-selected internet panel. [103] At the 2008 election only the Green Party gained a proportion of the party vote outside (below) what poll trends would suggest.

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  2. ↑ The Mana Movement and the Conservative Party of New Zealand were both formed in 2011, and as such, did not contest the 2008 general election

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References

  1. ↑ "John Key elected as new Prime Minister and record number of New Zealanders say New Zealand is 'Heading in the right direction'". Roy Morgan Research. 30 November 2008. Retrieved 9 August 2010.
  2. ↑ "'Honeymoon' period continues for new New Zealand Prime Minister John Key; National Party (47%) well ahead of Labour (31.5%)". Roy Morgan Research. 14 December 2008. Retrieved 9 August 2010.
  3. ↑ "John Key's New Zealand Government retains strong lead; National Party (48%) well ahead of Labour (33%)". Roy Morgan Research. 23 January 2009. Retrieved 9 August 2010.
  4. ↑ "NZ National Party-led Government (56%) well ahead of Opposition Parties (44%)". Roy Morgan Research. 5 February 2009. Retrieved 9 August 2010.
  5. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 "National-led Government (55%, unchanged) Retain big lead over Opposition Parties (45%, unchanged)". Roy Morgan Research. 27 April 2010. Retrieved 9 May 2010.
  6. 1 2 3 4 5 6 TVNZ Teletext, p.497 Retrieved 3 August 2009.
  7. ↑ "National's honeymoon continues, according to poll" (video). TV3. 18 February 2009. Retrieved 9 August 2010.
  8. 1 2 "National still on honeymoon". The Dominion Post . 6 April 2009. Archived from the original on 12 September 2017. Retrieved 29 September 2009.
  9. 1 2 3 Roy Morgan Research (24 June 2009). "National Still Surpasses 50% in New Zealand". Angus Reid Public Opinion . Retrieved 9 August 2010.
  10. ↑ "Poll: National falls, Labour gains". The New Zealand Herald . 21 September 2009. Retrieved 29 September 2009.
  11. ↑ "2009 poll results". Colmar Brunton . Retrieved 9 May 2010.
  12. 1 2 "3 News Reid Research poll results". 3 News. 18 October 2009. Retrieved 9 May 2010.
  13. 1 2 "Poll makes grim reading for Goff and Harawira". TVNZ. 29 November 2009. Retrieved 2 December 2009.
  14. 1 2 TVNZ Teletext. Retrieved 2 December 2009
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  74. ↑ "Chief Justice steps in for Writ Day". Newstalk ZB. 26 October 2011. Retrieved 26 October 2011.
  75. ↑ "Electoral statistics for the whole of New Zealand". Electoral Commission. 28 October 2011. Retrieved 31 October 2011.
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