Opinion polling for the 2008 New Zealand general election

Last updated

Opinion polling has been commissioned throughout the duration of the 48th New Zealand Parliament and in the leadup to the 2008 election by various organisations, the main four being Television New Zealand, TV3, The New Zealand Herald and Roy Morgan Research. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

Contents

Party vote and key events in the leadup to the 2008 election

Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey firms.

Graphical summary

Summary of poll results up to 7 November 2008 for all political parties that have exceeded the 5.0% mixed member proportional representation (MMP) threshold. Lines give the mean estimated by a Loess smoother, with shaded grey areas showing the corresponding 95% confidence interval for the estimate. Figures to the right show the estimate from the smoothing line at the date of the most recent poll, with 95% confidence interval. NZ opinion polls 2005-2008 new.png
Summary of poll results up to 7 November 2008 for all political parties that have exceeded the 5.0% mixed member proportional representation (MMP) threshold. Lines give the mean estimated by a Loess smoother, with shaded grey areas showing the corresponding 95% confidence interval for the estimate. Figures to the right show the estimate from the smoothing line at the date of the most recent poll, with 95% confidence interval.

Individual polls

PollDate Labour National NZ First Māori Green ACT United
Future
Prog
2005 election result 17 September 200541.139.15.72.15.31.52.71.2
Roy Morgan Research [1] 17 September–2 October 200536.541.54.5391.531
Roy Morgan Research [1] 4–16 October 20053940.55271.53.51
Roy Morgan Research [1] 18–31 October 200537.54061913.50.5
3 News TNS [2] 27 October–2 November 200544373.52.571.52.50.7
One News Colmar Brunton [3] 20 November 2005404442711
Herald-DigiPoll [4] 30 November 2005 [nb 1] 43.841.73.81.55.31.51.3
One News Colmar Brunton [5] 11 December 2005374642.17
Roy Morgan International [6] 13–23 January 20063940.54.51.58.51.53.00.0
Sunday Star-Times/BRC [7] 16–25 January 2006424341611
3 News TNS [2] 26 January–2 February 200644383.41.771.21.50.5
One News Colmar Brunton [8] 19 February 2006424542611
3 News TNS [2] 23–29 March 200643404.3361.11.90.2
Herald-DigiPoll [9] 10 April 200643.444.63.92.15.21.11.5
3 News TNS [2] 4–10 May 200642413.82.261.81.90.2
18 May 2006   2006 New Zealand budget presented to Parliament.
One News Colmar Brunton [10] 22–25 May 200638474351.11.40.1
3 News TNS [2] 29 June–5 July 200646393.81.360.81.10.4
One News Colmar Brunton [11] 16 July 2006434522420.8
One News Colmar Brunton [12] 7–10 August 2006434532.630.91.50.4
Herald-DigiPoll [13] 31 August 2006 [nb 1] 38.746.42.83.45.80.71.10.2
3 News TNS [2] 24–30 August 200643403.22.8711.20.2
Roy Morgan Research [14] 28 August–10 September 200641385.538.51.520.5
13 September 2006 – National Party leader Don Brash takes leave to sort out marital problems amidst rumours he had an affair. [15]
PollDate Labour National NZ First Māori Green ACT United Future Prog
Herald-DigiPoll [16] 22–24 September 20063845.72.84.16.81.40.70.3
One News Colmar Brunton [17] 18–21 September 2006384936
Roy Morgan Research [18] 16 September–1 October 20063641.572.58.51.52.5
Roy Morgan Research [19] 2–15 October 2006404051.58.521.50.5
One News Colmar Brunton [20] 16–19 October 200636492.52.460.50.90.2
Roy Morgan Research [21] 16–29 October 200638.54132.581.53
3 News TNS [22] 26 October–1 November 200642402.43.471.51.90.2
Roy Morgan Research [23] 30 October–12 November 200638.542.552.57.50.51.50.5
Roy Morgan Research [24] 13–26 November 200637.542.54.5281.53
27 November 2006 – John Key becomes leader of the National Party.
Herald-DigiPoll [25] 14 November–2 December 200641.742.83.426.111.60.4
Roy Morgan Research [26] 27 November–12 December 200637.544.5419.50.520.5
Roy Morgan Research [27] 3–21 January 20074141427.51.510.5
3 News TNS [28] 25 January–1 February 200744412.8280.80.80.1
Roy Morgan Research [1] 23 January–5 February 200739.541.54281.52.50.5
13 February 2007 – Taito Phillip Field is expelled from the Labour Party caucus after saying he would stand for election at the 2008 election, either with Labour or as an independent.
PollDate Labour National NZ First Māori Green ACT United Future Prog
One News Colmar Brunton [29] 12–15 February 200739462.23.171.30.50.4
Roy Morgan Research [30] 6–18 February 20073648.531.58.511.5
Roy Morgan Research [31] 19 February–4 March 2007364523.58.52.51.50.5
Roy Morgan Research [32] 5–18 March 200737.54543.57.511.5
One News Colmar Brunton [33] 17–22 March 2007374623.471.51.60.1
3 News TNS [34] 22–28 March 200744421.23.45.61.20.70.2
Roy Morgan Research [35] 19 March–2 April 200735.5463.52.59.511
Roy Morgan Research [36] 3–16 April 200733.545.5628.512
One News Colmar Brunton [37] 14–19 April 2007394921.7610.60.2
Roy Morgan Research [38] 23 April–6 May 20073649.54.51.560.51.5
3 News TNS [39] 3–9 May 200736482.43.780.50.60.1
16 May 2007 – Parliament passes the Crimes (Substituted Section 59) Amendment Act 2007.
17 May 2007   2007 New Zealand budget presented to Parliament.
Roy Morgan Research [40] 7–20 May 200732494.52.571.51.5
Herald-DigiPoll [41] 18–24 May 200733.650.93.21.76.10.70.80.4
One News Colmar Brunton [42] 19–24 May 200731562.12.960.410.2
Roy Morgan Research [43] 21 May–3 June 200733.550.53.51.56.50.520.5
7 June 2007 – The Reserve Bank intervenes in the currency market by selling New Zealand Dollars in an attempt halt the increase in value of the currency.
PollDate Labour National NZ First Māori Green ACT United Future Prog
Roy Morgan Research [44] 4–17 June 20073649.531.56.51.50.50.5
Herald-DigiPoll [45] 4–22 June 200740.148.232.440.60.3
Roy Morgan Research [46] 18 June–1 July 20073448.52.528.511.51
1 July 2007 – Introduction of several government policies, including 20 hours funded childcare for 3 and 4-year olds and the Kiwisaver retirement savings scheme.
One News Colmar Brunton [47] 30 June–5 July 200736522.32.650.30.60.4
3 News TNS [48] 5–11 July 200736482.62.761.21.1
UMR Research [49] c. 15 July 200736502.32.67.10.40.8
Roy Morgan Research [50] 2–15 July 20073647526.51.510.5
Herald-DigiPoll [51] 5–19 July 20074248.521.840.40.3
Roy Morgan Research [52] 16–29 July 200735494360.50.50.5
One News Colmar Brunton [53] 4–9 August 200736532.6151.20.50.2
UMR Research [49] c. 15 August 200735492.92.17.70.61.1
Roy Morgan Research [54] 30 July–12 August 20073150.54371.520.5
Roy Morgan Research [55] 20 August–2 September 200734482.539.510.50.5
3 News TNS [2] 30 August–5 September 200737473.21.871.50.1
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [56] 15 September 20073650326110
One News Colmar Brunton [57] 8–13 September 200739492.92.850.80.50.3
Roy Morgan Research [58] 3–16 September 200735492.537.51.51
UMR Research [59] 13–19 September 200734512.82.66.70.90.4
Herald-DigiPoll [60] 29 September 2007 [nb 1] 39.644.83.12.87.21.10.40.2
Roy Morgan Research [61] 17–30 September 20073348.532.59.511.50.5
One News Colmar Brunton [62] 6–11 October 200737491.92.860.60.40.1
Roy Morgan Research [63] 1–14 October 20073945.5327.50.51.5
UMR Research [49] 11–15 October 200738492.61.26.90.80.5
15 October 2007 – Operation 8 police raids on activists.
PollDate Labour National NZ First Māori Green ACT United Future Prog
Herald-DigiPoll [64] 8–28 October 200738.851.21.81.85.40.20.2
Roy Morgan Research [65] 15–28 October 200740.5453.51.56.511.5
Roy Morgan Research [66] 29 October–11 November 200734485.52.57.511
12 November 2007 – The New Zealand Herald dedicates its front page to criticism of the Electoral Finance Bill under headline "Democracy under attack".
Herald-DigiPoll [67] 8–26 November 200738.151.32.133.50.70.40.3
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [68] 17 November 2007 [nb 1] 4045335110
Roy Morgan Research [69] 12–25 November 2007354852.56.51.50.50.5
3 News TNS [2] 8–13 December 200736512.22.84.80.90.7
One News Colmar Brunton [70] 8–13 December 200735542.21.74.60.80.50.1
Roy Morgan Research [71] 26 November–9 December 200734.547.55261.50.50.5
Roy Morgan Research [72] 3–20 January 200833.5523.526.510.50.5
Herald-DigiPoll [73] 10–24 January 200838.747.5319.10.700
3 News TNS [2] 23–30 January 200835493370.50.5
29 January, 30 January 2008 – John Key and Helen Clark open their election year campaigns with speeches focusing on youth issues.
PollDate Labour National NZ First Māori Green ACT United Future Prog
Roy Morgan Research [74] 21 January–3 February 200836.545.542920.50.5
One News Colmar Brunton [75] 9–14 February 200834531.73.360.90.2
Roy Morgan Research [76] 4–17 February 200832.551.53380.50.50.5
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [77] 13–19 February 20083255326100
3 News TNS [2] 19–26 February 2008355132710.10.1
Herald-DigiPoll [78] 11–28 February 200836.554.52.11.54.40.40.40
Roy Morgan Research [79] 18 February–2 March 20083549.542710.50.5
One News Colmar Brunton [80] 8–13 March 200835502.53.370.90.30.1
Roy Morgan Research [81] 3–16 March 20083451326.51.510.5
Herald-DigiPoll [82] 6–27 March 200839.349.91.13.73.91.10
Roy Morgan Research [83] 24 March–6 April 200834.5474391.50.50.5
3 News TNS [84] 10–16 April 200838483.42.95.80.50.3
One News Colmar Brunton [85] 12–17 April 200835541.53.23.71.10.20.1
Roy Morgan Research [86] 7–20 April 200835.5503.52.56.51.50.5
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [87] 9–22 April 20083452336011
Herald-DigiPoll [88] 5–26 April 200837.252.11.52.95.20.40.10
PollDate Labour National NZ First Māori Green ACT United Future Prog
Roy Morgan Research [89] 21 April–4 May 200835.549.54.526.511
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [90] 7–13 May 20082956526100
17 May 2008   2008 New Zealand budget presented to Parliament.
Roy Morgan Research [91] 5–18 May 2008354942.57.51.5
Herald-DigiPoll [92] 5–28 May 200836.251.51.92.26.40.70.40
3 News TNS [93] 23–29 May 200835503.925.810.20.1
One News Colmar Brunton [94] 24–29 May 200829554.42.571.20.20.1
Roy Morgan Research [95] 19 May–1 June 20083250.54371.51
Roy Morgan Research [96] 2–15 June 200831.552.542720.5
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [97] 11–17 June 2008305432711
One News Colmar Brunton [98] 14–19 June 200829553.24.470.80.40
Herald-DigiPoll [99] 6–25 June 200832.454.93.31.85.90.80.1
Roy Morgan Research [100] 16–29 June 200830.551.542.5821
PollDate Labour National NZ First Māori Green ACT United Future Prog
Roy Morgan Research [101] 30 June–13 July 200831526.517.50.51
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [102] 9–15 July 2008355142510
One News Colmar Brunton [103] 12–17 July 200835522.41.761.20.30
3 News TNS [104] Released 18 July 2008354842710.30
Herald-DigiPoll [105] Released 29 July 200830.855.44.12.65.50.20.9
Roy Morgan Research [106] 14–27 July 200832.547.55382.50.5
Roy Morgan Research [107] 28 July–10 August 200834486.527.51.50
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [108] 6–12 August 2008355432410
One News Colmar Brunton [109] 9–14 August 200837512.63.13.50.60.70.1
3 News TNS [110] 14–20 August 20083748326210
Roy Morgan Research [111] 18–31 August 20083844.52.53.581.51
Herald-DigiPoll [112] 3–25 August 200836.3502.13.15.12.30
One News Colmar Brunton [113] 6–11 September 200835531.81.85200
11 September 2008 – Parliament passes a law creating the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme. [114]
12 September 2008 – Helen Clark announces the election will be held 8 November 2008. [115]
PollDate Labour National NZ First Māori Green ACT United Future Prog
Roy Morgan Research [116] 1–14 September 200836.547.551.56.51.50.5
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [117] 10–16 September 200834523351
Herald-DigiPoll [118] 15–24 September 200835.751.42.81.94.91.10.40.4
3 News TNS [119] 18–24 September 20083649325200
One News Colmar Brunton [120] 27 September–2 October 200833522.02.571.50.70.3
Roy Morgan Research [121] 22 September –5 October 200837.540.54293.511
3 News TNS [122] Released 10 October 200839452.72.56.71.80.10.1
One News Colmar Brunton [123] 4–9 October 200833512.62.881.60.10.3
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [124] 8–14 October 20083351327110
One News Colmar Brunton [125] 11–16 October 200836502.12.152.10.50.5
3 News TNS [126] Released 23 October 200837.445.13.52.38.81.70.20.1
PollDate Labour National NZ First Māori Green ACT United Future Prog
Roy Morgan Research [127] 6–19 October 200832434.52.511.53.50.50.5
Herald-DigiPoll [128] 15–22 October 200837.050.42.12.45.41.20.20.3
One News Colmar Brunton [129] 18–23 October 200835.047.03.03.08.02.00.40.0
3 News TNS [130] Released 6 November 200833.146.03.42.79.02.80.20.3
One News Colmar Brunton [131] 1–5 November 200835.047.02.41.39.02.50.40.4
Herald-DigiPoll [132] 29 October–5 November 200836.447.93.92.35.81.80.70.2
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [133] Released 7 November 2008314933841
Roy Morgan Research [134] 20 October–2 November 200834.5424.52.51041
2008 election result [135] 8 November 200833.9944.934.072.396.723.650.870.91

Preferred Prime Minister

Graphical summary

Summary of Preferred Prime Minister Polls up to 6 November 2008. Lines show the mean, as estimated by a Loess smoother. Figures to the right show the estimate from the smoothing line at the date of the most recent poll, with 95% confidence interval. NZ opinion polls 2005-2008 -PPM.png
Summary of Preferred Prime Minister Polls up to 6 November 2008. Lines show the mean, as estimated by a Loess smoother. Figures to the right show the estimate from the smoothing line at the date of the most recent poll, with 95% confidence interval.

Individual polls

PollDate Helen
Clark
Don
Brash
John
Key
Winston
Peters
TV3–TNS [2] 27 October – 2 November 200543198
TV3–TNS [2] 26 January – 2 February 200639167
TV3–TNS [2] 23–29 March 200638156
TV3–TNS [2] 4–10 May 200634186
TV3–TNS [2] 29 June – 5 July 2006381306
TV3–TNS [2] 24–30 August 2006381705
Herald–DigiPoll [13] 31 August 2006 [nb 1] 52.422.48.55
Herald–DigiPoll [16] 22–24 September 200650.825.99.24.8
TV3–TNS [22] 26 October–1 November 20063515
Herald–DigiPoll [25] 14 November–2 December 200654.23.928.5
TV3–TNS [28] 25 January–1 February 2007351245
One News–Colmar Brunton [29] 12–15 February 200732273
One News–Colmar Brunton [33] 17–22 March 200732294
TV3–TNS [34] 22–28 March 2007371284
One News–Colmar Brunton [37] 14–19 April 2007371293
TV3–TNS [39] 3–9 May 2007301325
Herald–DigiPoll [41] 18–24 May 200742.145.55.4
One News–Colmar Brunton [42] 19–24 May 2007270.3382
PollDate Helen
Clark
Don
Brash
John
Key
Winston
Peters
One News–Colmar Brunton [47] 30 June–5 July 2007290.5352
TV3–TNS [2] 5–11 July 2007311314
Herald–DigiPoll [51] 5–19 July 200748.737.97
One News–Colmar Brunton [53] 4–9 August 2007300.7334
TV3–TNS [2] 30 August – 5 September 2007281326
Fairfax Media Poll [56] 15 September 2007 [nb 1] 34413
One News–Colmar Brunton [57] 8–13 September 2007330.3314
Herald–DigiPoll [60] 29 September 2007 [nb 1] 46.842.2
One News–Colmar Brunton [62] 6–11 October 2007330.2333
Herald–DigiPoll [64] 8–28 October 200750.837.35
Fairfax Media Poll [68] 17 November 2007 [nb 1] 3836
Herald–DigiPoll [67] 8–26 November 200748.736.78.1
TV3–TNS [2] 5–12 December 200728336
One News–Colmar Brunton [70] 8–13 December 2007300.2352
Herald–DigiPoll [73] 10–24 January 200849.739.23.8
TV3–TNS [2] 23–30 January 200829336
One News–Colmar Brunton [75] 9–14 February 2008270.4364
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [77] 13–19 February 20082944
TV3–TNS [2] 19–26 February 200828355
Herald–DigiPoll [78] 11–28 February 200844.30.246.33.3
One News–Colmar Brunton [80] 8–13 March 200831365
Herald–DigiPoll [82] 6–27 March 200845.645.93.9
PollDate Helen
Clark
Don
Brash
John
Key
Winston
Peters
TV3–TNS [84] 10–16 April 200832296
One News–Colmar Brunton [85] 12–17 April 200829354
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [87] 9–22 April 20083342
Herald–DigiPoll [88] 5–26 April 200845.348
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [90] 7–13 May 200828455
Herald–DigiPoll [92] 5–28 May 200842.344.66.7
TV3–TNS [93] 23–29 May 200829356
One News–Colmar Brunton [94] 24–29 May 200828366
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [97] 11–17 June 200830432
One News–Colmar Brunton [98] 14–19 June 2008270.2384
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [102] 9–15 July 200832393
One News–Colmar Brunton [103] 12–17 July 2008310.3384
TV3–TNS [104] Released 18 July 200828326
Herald–DigiPoll [105] Released 29 July 20084447.14.9
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [108] 6–12 August 200831432
One News–Colmar Brunton [109] 9–14 August 200833363
TV3–TNS [110] 14–20 August 200831343
Herald–DigiPoll [112] 3–25 August 20084546.65.6
PollDate Helen
Clark
Don
Brash
John
Key
Winston
Peters
One News-Colmar Brunton [113] 6–11 September 2008310.1403
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [117] 10–16 September 200830412
Herald–DigiPoll [118] 15–24 September 200843.145.54
TV3–TNS [119] Released 28 September 20083234
One News-Colmar Brunton [120] 27 September–2 October 200831413
TV3–TNS [122] Released 10 October 200831.631
One News-Colmar Brunton [123] 4–9 October 200831392
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [124] 8–14 October 20083543
One News-Colmar Brunton [125] 11–16 October 2008340.1402
TV3–TNS [126] Released 23 October 200836.336.3
Herald–DigiPoll [128] 15–22 October 200845.444.84.0
One News-Colmar Brunton [129] 18–23 October 200837-383
One News-Colmar Brunton [131] 1–5 November 200836401

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Dates surveyed unavailable: date shown is date polled released to media.

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Several polling firms have conducted opinion polls during the term of the 54th New Zealand Parliament (2023–present) for the next New Zealand general election. The regular polls are the quarterly polls produced by Television New Zealand conducted by Verian, along with monthly polls by Roy Morgan and by Curia. Curia Market Research is no longer a member of the Research Association of New Zealand, following complaints and the resignation from RANZ by its principal, David Farrar. The sample size, margin of error, and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

References

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