Opinion polling for the 2008 New Zealand general election

Last updated

Opinion polling has been commissioned throughout the duration of the 48th New Zealand Parliament and in the leadup to the 2008 election by various organisations, the main four being Television New Zealand, TV3, The New Zealand Herald and Roy Morgan Research. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

Contents

Party vote and key events in the leadup to the 2008 election

Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey firms.

Graphical summary

Summary of poll results up to 7 November 2008 for all political parties that have exceeded the 5.0% mixed member proportional representation (MMP) threshold. Lines give the mean estimated by a Loess smoother, with shaded grey areas showing the corresponding 95% confidence interval for the estimate. Figures to the right show the estimate from the smoothing line at the date of the most recent poll, with 95% confidence interval. NZ opinion polls 2005-2008 new.png
Summary of poll results up to 7 November 2008 for all political parties that have exceeded the 5.0% mixed member proportional representation (MMP) threshold. Lines give the mean estimated by a Loess smoother, with shaded grey areas showing the corresponding 95% confidence interval for the estimate. Figures to the right show the estimate from the smoothing line at the date of the most recent poll, with 95% confidence interval.

Individual polls

PollDate Labour National NZ First Māori Green ACT United
Future 		Prog
2005 election result 17 September 200541.139.15.72.15.31.52.71.2
Roy Morgan Research [1] 17 September–2 October 200536.541.54.5391.531
Roy Morgan Research [1] 4–16 October 20053940.55271.53.51
Roy Morgan Research [1] 18–31 October 200537.54061913.50.5
3 News TNS [2] 27 October–2 November 200544373.52.571.52.50.7
One News Colmar Brunton [3] 20 November 2005404442711
Herald-DigiPoll [4] 30 November 2005 [nb 1] 43.841.73.81.55.31.51.3
One News Colmar Brunton [5] 11 December 2005374642.17
Roy Morgan International [6] 13–23 January 20063940.54.51.58.51.53.00.0
Sunday Star-Times/BRC [7] 16–25 January 2006424341611
3 News TNS [2] 26 January–2 February 200644383.41.771.21.50.5
One News Colmar Brunton [8] 19 February 2006424542611
3 News TNS [2] 23–29 March 200643404.3361.11.90.2
Herald-DigiPoll [9] 10 April 200643.444.63.92.15.21.11.5
3 News TNS [2] 4–10 May 200642413.82.261.81.90.2
18 May 2006  – 2006 New Zealand budget presented to Parliament.
One News Colmar Brunton [10] 22–25 May 200638474351.11.40.1
3 News TNS [2] 29 June–5 July 200646393.81.360.81.10.4
One News Colmar Brunton [11] 16 July 2006434522420.8
One News Colmar Brunton [12] 7–10 August 2006434532.630.91.50.4
Herald-DigiPoll [13] 31 August 2006 [nb 1] 38.746.42.83.45.80.71.10.2
3 News TNS [2] 24–30 August 200643403.22.8711.20.2
Roy Morgan Research [14] 28 August–10 September 200641385.538.51.520.5
13 September 2006 – National Party leader Don Brash takes leave to sort out marital problems amidst rumours he had an affair. [15]
PollDate Labour National NZ First Māori Green ACT United Future Prog
Herald-DigiPoll [16] 22–24 September 20063845.72.84.16.81.40.70.3
One News Colmar Brunton [17] 18–21 September 20063849–36–––
Roy Morgan Research [18] 16 September–1 October 20063641.572.58.51.52.5–
Roy Morgan Research [19] 2–15 October 2006404051.58.521.50.5
One News Colmar Brunton [20] 16–19 October 200636492.52.460.50.90.2
Roy Morgan Research [21] 16–29 October 200638.54132.581.53–
3 News TNS [22] 26 October–1 November 200642402.43.471.51.90.2
Roy Morgan Research [23] 30 October–12 November 200638.542.552.57.50.51.50.5
Roy Morgan Research [24] 13–26 November 200637.542.54.5281.53–
27 November 2006 – John Key becomes leader of the National Party.
Herald-DigiPoll [25] 14 November–2 December 200641.742.83.426.111.60.4
Roy Morgan Research [26] 27 November–12 December 200637.544.5419.50.520.5
Roy Morgan Research [27] 3–21 January 20074141427.51.510.5
3 News TNS [28] 25 January–1 February 200744412.8280.80.80.1
Roy Morgan Research [1] 23 January–5 February 200739.541.54281.52.50.5
13 February 2007 – Taito Phillip Field is expelled from the Labour Party caucus after saying he would stand for election at the 2008 election, either with Labour or as an independent.
PollDate Labour National NZ First Māori Green ACT United Future Prog
One News Colmar Brunton [29] 12–15 February 200739462.23.171.30.50.4
Roy Morgan Research [30] 6–18 February 20073648.531.58.511.5–
Roy Morgan Research [31] 19 February–4 March 2007364523.58.52.51.50.5
Roy Morgan Research [32] 5–18 March 200737.54543.57.511.5–
One News Colmar Brunton [33] 17–22 March 2007374623.471.51.60.1
3 News TNS [34] 22–28 March 200744421.23.45.61.20.70.2
Roy Morgan Research [35] 19 March–2 April 200735.5463.52.59.511–
Roy Morgan Research [36] 3–16 April 200733.545.5628.512–
One News Colmar Brunton [37] 14–19 April 2007394921.7610.60.2
Roy Morgan Research [38] 23 April–6 May 20073649.54.51.560.51.5–
3 News TNS [39] 3–9 May 200736482.43.780.50.60.1
16 May 2007 – Parliament passes the Crimes (Substituted Section 59) Amendment Act 2007.
17 May 2007  – 2007 New Zealand budget presented to Parliament.
Roy Morgan Research [40] 7–20 May 200732494.52.571.51.5–
Herald-DigiPoll [41] 18–24 May 200733.650.93.21.76.10.70.80.4
One News Colmar Brunton [42] 19–24 May 200731562.12.960.410.2
Roy Morgan Research [43] 21 May–3 June 200733.550.53.51.56.50.520.5
7 June 2007 – The Reserve Bank intervenes in the currency market by selling New Zealand Dollars in an attempt halt the increase in value of the currency.
PollDate Labour National NZ First Māori Green ACT United Future Prog
Roy Morgan Research [44] 4–17 June 20073649.531.56.51.50.50.5
Herald-DigiPoll [45] 4–22 June 200740.148.232.440.60.3–
Roy Morgan Research [46] 18 June–1 July 20073448.52.528.511.51
1 July 2007 – Introduction of several government policies, including 20 hours funded childcare for 3 and 4-year olds and the Kiwisaver retirement savings scheme.
One News Colmar Brunton [47] 30 June–5 July 200736522.32.650.30.60.4
3 News TNS [48] 5–11 July 200736482.62.761.21.1–
UMR Research [49] c. 15 July 200736502.32.67.10.40.8–
Roy Morgan Research [50] 2–15 July 20073647526.51.510.5
Herald-DigiPoll [51] 5–19 July 20074248.521.840.40.3–
Roy Morgan Research [52] 16–29 July 200735494360.50.50.5
One News Colmar Brunton [53] 4–9 August 200736532.6151.20.50.2
UMR Research [49] c. 15 August 200735492.92.17.70.61.1–
Roy Morgan Research [54] 30 July–12 August 20073150.54371.520.5
Roy Morgan Research [55] 20 August–2 September 200734482.539.510.50.5
3 News TNS [2] 30 August–5 September 200737473.21.871.50.1–
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [56] 15 September 20073650326110
One News Colmar Brunton [57] 8–13 September 200739492.92.850.80.50.3
Roy Morgan Research [58] 3–16 September 200735492.537.51.51–
UMR Research [59] 13–19 September 200734512.82.66.70.90.4–
Herald-DigiPoll [60] 29 September 2007 [nb 1] 39.644.83.12.87.21.10.40.2
Roy Morgan Research [61] 17–30 September 20073348.532.59.511.50.5
One News Colmar Brunton [62] 6–11 October 200737491.92.860.60.40.1
Roy Morgan Research [63] 1–14 October 20073945.5327.50.51.5–
UMR Research [49] 11–15 October 200738492.61.26.90.80.5–
15 October 2007 – Operation 8 police raids on activists.
PollDate Labour National NZ First Māori Green ACT United Future Prog
Herald-DigiPoll [64] 8–28 October 200738.851.21.81.85.40.20.2–
Roy Morgan Research [65] 15–28 October 200740.5453.51.56.511.5–
Roy Morgan Research [66] 29 October–11 November 200734485.52.57.511–
12 November 2007 – The New Zealand Herald dedicates its front page to criticism of the Electoral Finance Bill under headline "Democracy under attack".
Herald-DigiPoll [67] 8–26 November 200738.151.32.133.50.70.40.3
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [68] 17 November 2007 [nb 1] 4045335110
Roy Morgan Research [69] 12–25 November 2007354852.56.51.50.50.5
3 News TNS [2] 8–13 December 200736512.22.84.80.90.7–
One News Colmar Brunton [70] 8–13 December 200735542.21.74.60.80.50.1
Roy Morgan Research [71] 26 November–9 December 200734.547.55261.50.50.5
Roy Morgan Research [72] 3–20 January 200833.5523.526.510.50.5
Herald-DigiPoll [73] 10–24 January 200838.747.5319.10.700
3 News TNS [2] 23–30 January 200835493370.50.5–
29 January, 30 January 2008 – John Key and Helen Clark open their election year campaigns with speeches focusing on youth issues.
PollDate Labour National NZ First Māori Green ACT United Future Prog
Roy Morgan Research [74] 21 January–3 February 200836.545.542920.50.5
One News Colmar Brunton [75] 9–14 February 200834531.73.360.90.2–
Roy Morgan Research [76] 4–17 February 200832.551.53380.50.50.5
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [77] 13–19 February 20083255326100
3 News TNS [2] 19–26 February 2008355132710.10.1
Herald-DigiPoll [78] 11–28 February 200836.554.52.11.54.40.40.40
Roy Morgan Research [79] 18 February–2 March 20083549.542710.50.5
One News Colmar Brunton [80] 8–13 March 200835502.53.370.90.30.1
Roy Morgan Research [81] 3–16 March 20083451326.51.510.5
Herald-DigiPoll [82] 6–27 March 200839.349.91.13.73.91.10–
Roy Morgan Research [83] 24 March–6 April 200834.5474391.50.50.5
3 News TNS [84] 10–16 April 200838483.42.95.80.50.3–
One News Colmar Brunton [85] 12–17 April 200835541.53.23.71.10.20.1
Roy Morgan Research [86] 7–20 April 200835.5503.52.56.51.50.5–
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [87] 9–22 April 20083452336011
Herald-DigiPoll [88] 5–26 April 200837.252.11.52.95.20.40.10
PollDate Labour National NZ First Māori Green ACT United Future Prog
Roy Morgan Research [89] 21 April–4 May 200835.549.54.526.511–
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [90] 7–13 May 20082956526100
17 May 2008  – 2008 New Zealand budget presented to Parliament.
Roy Morgan Research [91] 5–18 May 2008354942.57.51.5–
Herald-DigiPoll [92] 5–28 May 200836.251.51.92.26.40.70.40
3 News TNS [93] 23–29 May 200835503.925.810.20.1
One News Colmar Brunton [94] 24–29 May 200829554.42.571.20.20.1
Roy Morgan Research [95] 19 May–1 June 20083250.54371.51–
Roy Morgan Research [96] 2–15 June 200831.552.542720.5–
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [97] 11–17 June 2008305432711–
One News Colmar Brunton [98] 14–19 June 200829553.24.470.80.40
Herald-DigiPoll [99] 6–25 June 200832.454.93.31.85.90.80.1–
Roy Morgan Research [100] 16–29 June 200830.551.542.5821–
PollDate Labour National NZ First Māori Green ACT United Future Prog
Roy Morgan Research [101] 30 June–13 July 200831526.517.50.51–
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [102] 9–15 July 2008355142510–
One News Colmar Brunton [103] 12–17 July 200835522.41.761.20.30
3 News TNS [104] Released 18 July 2008354842710.30
Herald-DigiPoll [105] Released 29 July 200830.855.44.12.65.50.20.9–
Roy Morgan Research [106] 14–27 July 200832.547.55382.50.5–
Roy Morgan Research [107] 28 July–10 August 200834486.527.51.50–
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [108] 6–12 August 2008355432410–
One News Colmar Brunton [109] 9–14 August 200837512.63.13.50.60.70.1
3 News TNS [110] 14–20 August 20083748326210
Roy Morgan Research [111] 18–31 August 20083844.52.53.581.51–
Herald-DigiPoll [112] 3–25 August 200836.3502.13.15.12.30–
One News Colmar Brunton [113] 6–11 September 200835531.81.85200
11 September 2008 – Parliament passes a law creating the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme. [114]
12 September 2008 – Helen Clark announces the election will be held 8 November 2008. [115]
PollDate Labour National NZ First Māori Green ACT United Future Prog
Roy Morgan Research [116] 1–14 September 200836.547.551.56.51.50.5–
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [117] 10–16 September 200834523351––
Herald-DigiPoll [118] 15–24 September 200835.751.42.81.94.91.10.40.4
3 News TNS [119] 18–24 September 20083649325200
One News Colmar Brunton [120] 27 September–2 October 200833522.02.571.50.70.3
Roy Morgan Research [121] 22 September –5 October 200837.540.54293.511
3 News TNS [122] Released 10 October 200839452.72.56.71.80.10.1
One News Colmar Brunton [123] 4–9 October 200833512.62.881.60.10.3
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [124] 8–14 October 20083351327110
One News Colmar Brunton [125] 11–16 October 200836502.12.152.10.50.5
3 News TNS [126] Released 23 October 200837.445.13.52.38.81.70.20.1
PollDate Labour National NZ First Māori Green ACT United Future Prog
Roy Morgan Research [127] 6–19 October 200832434.52.511.53.50.50.5
Herald-DigiPoll [128] 15–22 October 200837.050.42.12.45.41.20.20.3
One News Colmar Brunton [129] 18–23 October 200835.047.03.03.08.02.00.40.0
3 News TNS [130] Released 6 November 200833.146.03.42.79.02.80.20.3
One News Colmar Brunton [131] 1–5 November 200835.047.02.41.39.02.50.40.4
Herald-DigiPoll [132] 29 October–5 November 200836.447.93.92.35.81.80.70.2
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [133] Released 7 November 2008314933841–
Roy Morgan Research [134] 20 October–2 November 200834.5424.52.51041–
2008 election result [135] 8 November 200833.9944.934.072.396.723.650.870.91

Preferred Prime Minister

Graphical summary

Summary of Preferred Prime Minister Polls up to 6 November 2008. Lines show the mean, as estimated by a Loess smoother. Figures to the right show the estimate from the smoothing line at the date of the most recent poll, with 95% confidence interval. NZ opinion polls 2005-2008 -PPM.png
Summary of Preferred Prime Minister Polls up to 6 November 2008. Lines show the mean, as estimated by a Loess smoother. Figures to the right show the estimate from the smoothing line at the date of the most recent poll, with 95% confidence interval.

Individual polls

PollDate Helen
Clark 		Don
Brash 		John
Key 		Winston
Peters
TV3–TNS [2] 27 October – 2 November 20054319–8
TV3–TNS [2] 26 January – 2 February 20063916–7
TV3–TNS [2] 23–29 March 20063815–6
TV3–TNS [2] 4–10 May 20063418–6
TV3–TNS [2] 29 June – 5 July 2006381306
TV3–TNS [2] 24–30 August 2006381705
Herald–DigiPoll [13] 31 August 2006 [nb 1] 52.422.48.55
Herald–DigiPoll [16] 22–24 September 200650.825.99.24.8
TV3–TNS [22] 26 October–1 November 20063515––
Herald–DigiPoll [25] 14 November–2 December 200654.23.928.5–
TV3–TNS [28] 25 January–1 February 2007351245
One News–Colmar Brunton [29] 12–15 February 200732–273
One News–Colmar Brunton [33] 17–22 March 200732–294
TV3–TNS [34] 22–28 March 2007371284
One News–Colmar Brunton [37] 14–19 April 2007371293
TV3–TNS [39] 3–9 May 2007301325
Herald–DigiPoll [41] 18–24 May 200742.1–45.55.4
One News–Colmar Brunton [42] 19–24 May 2007270.3382
PollDate Helen
Clark 		Don
Brash 		John
Key 		Winston
Peters
One News–Colmar Brunton [47] 30 June–5 July 2007290.5352
TV3–TNS [2] 5–11 July 2007311314
Herald–DigiPoll [51] 5–19 July 200748.7–37.97
One News–Colmar Brunton [53] 4–9 August 2007300.7334
TV3–TNS [2] 30 August – 5 September 2007281326
Fairfax Media Poll [56] 15 September 2007 [nb 1] 34–413
One News–Colmar Brunton [57] 8–13 September 2007330.3314
Herald–DigiPoll [60] 29 September 2007 [nb 1] 46.8–42.2–
One News–Colmar Brunton [62] 6–11 October 2007330.2333
Herald–DigiPoll [64] 8–28 October 200750.8–37.35
Fairfax Media Poll [68] 17 November 2007 [nb 1] 38–36–
Herald–DigiPoll [67] 8–26 November 200748.7–36.78.1
TV3–TNS [2] 5–12 December 200728–336
One News–Colmar Brunton [70] 8–13 December 2007300.2352
Herald–DigiPoll [73] 10–24 January 200849.7–39.23.8
TV3–TNS [2] 23–30 January 200829–336
One News–Colmar Brunton [75] 9–14 February 2008270.4364
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [77] 13–19 February 200829–44–
TV3–TNS [2] 19–26 February 200828–355
Herald–DigiPoll [78] 11–28 February 200844.30.246.33.3
One News–Colmar Brunton [80] 8–13 March 200831–365
Herald–DigiPoll [82] 6–27 March 200845.6–45.93.9
PollDate Helen
Clark 		Don
Brash 		John
Key 		Winston
Peters
TV3–TNS [84] 10–16 April 200832–296
One News–Colmar Brunton [85] 12–17 April 200829–354
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [87] 9–22 April 200833–42–
Herald–DigiPoll [88] 5–26 April 200845.3–48–
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [90] 7–13 May 200828–455
Herald–DigiPoll [92] 5–28 May 200842.3–44.66.7
TV3–TNS [93] 23–29 May 200829–356
One News–Colmar Brunton [94] 24–29 May 200828–366
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [97] 11–17 June 200830–432
One News–Colmar Brunton [98] 14–19 June 2008270.2384
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [102] 9–15 July 200832–393
One News–Colmar Brunton [103] 12–17 July 2008310.3384
TV3–TNS [104] Released 18 July 200828–326
Herald–DigiPoll [105] Released 29 July 200844–47.14.9
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [108] 6–12 August 200831–432
One News–Colmar Brunton [109] 9–14 August 200833–363
TV3–TNS [110] 14–20 August 200831–343
Herald–DigiPoll [112] 3–25 August 200845–46.65.6
PollDate Helen
Clark 		Don
Brash 		John
Key 		Winston
Peters
One News-Colmar Brunton [113] 6–11 September 2008310.1403
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [117] 10–16 September 200830–412
Herald–DigiPoll [118] 15–24 September 200843.1–45.54
TV3–TNS [119] Released 28 September 200832–34–
One News-Colmar Brunton [120] 27 September–2 October 200831–413
TV3–TNS [122] Released 10 October 200831.6–31–
One News-Colmar Brunton [123] 4–9 October 200831–392
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [124] 8–14 October 200835–43–
One News-Colmar Brunton [125] 11–16 October 2008340.1402
TV3–TNS [126] Released 23 October 200836.3–36.3–
Herald–DigiPoll [128] 15–22 October 200845.4–44.84.0
One News-Colmar Brunton [129] 18–23 October 200837-383
One News-Colmar Brunton [131] 1–5 November 200836–401

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Dates surveyed unavailable: date shown is date polled released to media.

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Don Brash</span> Former New Zealand politician

Donald Thomas Brash is a former New Zealand politician who was Leader of the Opposition and leader of the New Zealand National Party from October 2003 to November 2006, and leader of the ACT New Zealand party for seven months from April to November 2011.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">David Cunliffe</span> New Zealand politician

David Richard Cunliffe is a New Zealand management consultant and former politician who was Leader of the New Zealand Labour Party and Leader of the Opposition from September 2013 to September 2014. He was Member of Parliament (MP) for Titirangi and then New Lynn for the Labour Party between 1999 and 2017. He served as the Minister of Health, Minister for Communications and Information Technology and Minister of Immigration for the Fifth Labour Government of New Zealand from October 2007 until November 2008.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Republicanism in New Zealand</span> Political movement in New Zealand

Republicanism in New Zealand is the political position that New Zealand's system of government should be changed from a constitutional monarchy to a republic.

The 2005 New Zealand election funding controversy occurred in the aftermath of the 2005 New Zealand general election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2011 New Zealand general election</span> General election in New Zealand

The 2011 New Zealand general election took place on Saturday 26 November 2011 to determine the membership of the 50th New Zealand Parliament.

Opinion polling has been commissioned throughout the duration of the 49th New Zealand Parliament and in the leadup to the 2011 election by various organisations. The main four are Television New Zealand, TV3, The New Zealand Herald and Roy Morgan Research. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Helen Clark</span> Prime Minister of New Zealand from 1999 to 2008

Helen Elizabeth Clark is a New Zealand politician who served as the 37th prime minister of New Zealand from 1999 to 2008, and was the administrator of the United Nations Development Programme from 2009 to 2017. She was New Zealand's fifth-longest-serving prime minister, and the second woman to hold that office.

Opinion polling was commissioned throughout the duration of the 47th New Zealand Parliament and in the lead up to the 2005 election by various organisations.

Opinion polling for the 2014 New Zealand general election has been commissioned throughout the duration of the 50th New Zealand Parliament by various organisations. The five main polling organisations are Fairfax Media, MediaWorks New Zealand, The New Zealand Herald, Roy Morgan Research, and Television New Zealand. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

The 2011 New Zealand Labour Party leadership election was held on 13 December 2011 to choose the thirteenth Leader of the New Zealand Labour Party. A Deputy Leader and a senior and a junior whip were also elected. Following the Labour Party's loss in the 2011 general election, leader Phil Goff and deputy leader Annette King resigned, prompting the leadership election, which was conducted as a secret ballot of the Labour caucus.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2013 New Zealand Labour Party leadership election</span> New Zealand party leadership election

The 2013 New Zealand Labour Party leadership election was held on 15 September 2013 to choose the fourteenth Leader of the New Zealand Labour Party. The election was won by David Cunliffe.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2017 New Zealand general election</span>

The 2017 New Zealand general election took place on Saturday 23 September 2017 to determine the membership of the 52nd New Zealand Parliament. The previous parliament was elected on 20 September 2014 and was officially dissolved on 22 August 2017. Voters elected 120 members to the House of Representatives under New Zealand's mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system, a proportional representation system in which 71 members were elected from single-member electorates and 49 members were elected from closed party lists. Around 3.57 million people were registered to vote in the election, with 2.63 million (79.8%) turning out. Advance voting proved popular, with 1.24 million votes cast before election day, more than the previous two elections combined.

Various organisations commissioned opinion polls for the 2017 New Zealand general election during the term of the 51st New Zealand Parliament (2014–2017). Roy Morgan Research polled monthly, with MediaWorks New Zealand and Television New Zealand polling less frequently. The last The New Zealand Herald was in December 2015, and Fairfax Media discontinued their poll after the 2014 election. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varied by organisation and date, but were typically 800–1000 participants with a margin of error of just over 3%.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2015 Northland by-election</span> New Zealand by-election

A by-election was held in the Northland electorate on 28 March 2015. The seat had been vacated following the resignation of Mike Sabin of the National Party from the House of Representatives on 30 January 2015. Northland was generally regarded as a safe National seat; the party has held the seat since its creation for the 1996 election. The election was won by Winston Peters of New Zealand First. As Peters was already a list MP for his party, this allowed New Zealand First an additional list member, Ria Bond, to join parliament.

Several research and polling firms conducted polls during the parliamentary term and prior to the 2016 Australian federal election on 2 July in relation to voting intention for the Australian House of Representatives and leader ratings. Most firms use the flow of preferences at the previous election to determine the two-party-preferred vote; others ask respondents to nominate their second preference before applying the preference flows at the previous election.

Several polling firms conducted opinion polls during the term of the 52nd New Zealand Parliament in the lead up to the 2020 general election, which elects the 53rd Parliament. The 52nd Parliament was elected on 23 September 2017 and dissolved on 6 September 2020. The 2020 election was originally due to take place on Saturday 19 September 2020, but due to a second COVID-19 outbreak it was delayed until Saturday 17 October 2020.

The 2016 New Zealand National Party leadership election was held on 12 December 2016 to determine the next Leader of the National Party and the 39th Prime Minister of New Zealand. A secret exhaustive ballot of the 59-member National parliamentary caucus was to be used in the event of a contested leadership.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2017 New Zealand Labour Party leadership election</span> New Zealand party leadership election

The 2017 New Zealand Labour Party leadership election was held on 1 August 2017 to choose the next Leader of the New Zealand Labour Party. The election was won by Deputy Leader and Mount Albert MP Jacinda Ardern.

Several polling firms conducted opinion polls during the term of the 53rd New Zealand Parliament (2020–2023) for the 2023 New Zealand general election. The regular polls are the quarterly polls produced by Television New Zealand conducted by Verian and Discovery New Zealand (Newshub) conducted by Reid Research, along with monthly polls by Roy Morgan, and by Curia. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

Several polling firms will conduct opinion polls during the term of the 54th New Zealand Parliament (2023–present) for the next New Zealand general election. The regular polls are the quarterly polls produced by Television New Zealand conducted by Verian and Discovery New Zealand (Newshub) conducted by Reid Research, along with monthly polls by Roy Morgan, and by Curia. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

References

  1. 1 2 3 4 "In New Zealand: Labour Support Down 1.5% In Past Fortnight To 39.5%". Roy Morgan Research. 13 February 2007. Retrieved 19 July 2011.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 "3 News Poll" (PDF). 3 News (MediaWorks New Zealand). 20 April 2008. Retrieved 23 October 2010.
  3. ↑ "NATIONAL FINANCE SPOKESMAN MAKES APPEARANCE IN POPULARITY STAKES". New Zealand Press Association. 20 November 2005.
  4. ↑ Berry, Ruth (17 December 2005). "Labour stays tops in poll to end year". The New Zealand Herald . APN News & Media . Retrieved 13 October 2013.
  5. ↑ "The Green Party, on 7 percent, and New Zealand First on 4 percent, were both...". New Zealand Press Association. 16 December 2005.
  6. ↑ "NATS AHEAD IN NEW POLL". New Zealand Press Association. 29 January 2006.
  7. ↑ "There was also a Sunday Star-Times/BRC opinion poll out today". New Zealand Press Association. 29 January 2006.
  8. ↑ "NATS STILL AHEAD IN LATEST POLL". New Zealand Press Association. 19 February 2006.
  9. ↑ Young, Audrey (10 April 2006). "Key overtakes Peters in PM stakes". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 14 October 2013.
  10. ↑ "One News Colmar Brunton poll: May 2006". ONE News (Television New Zealand). 28 May 2006. Retrieved 23 October 2010.
  11. ↑ "GAP CLOSING BUT NATIONAL STILL IN FRONT -- NEW POLL SHOWS". New Zealand Press Association. 16 July 2006.
  12. ↑ "ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll: Aug 2006". ONE News (Television New Zealand). 13 August 2006. Retrieved 23 October 2010.
  13. 1 2 Oliver, Paula (31 August 2006). "National storms to poll lead". The New Zealand Herald . APN News & Media . Retrieved 23 October 2010.
  14. ↑ "In New Zealand: Labour Government Support Up 2.5%, Nationals Down 6%". Roy Morgan Research. 16 September 2006. Retrieved 23 October 2010.
  15. ↑ Marks, Kathy (19 September 2006). "Dirty politics: Sex and smears, down under" . The Independent . Archived from the original on 24 May 2022. Retrieved 23 October 2010.
  16. 1 2 Oliver, Paula; Berry, Ruth (26 September 2006). "Hefty majority of voters rejects PM's use of 'cancerous'". The New Zealand Herald. APN News & Media. Retrieved 23 October 2010.
  17. ↑ "ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll: Sept 2006". ONE News (Television New Zealand). 24 September 2010. Retrieved 23 October 2010.
  18. ↑ "In New Zealand: National Ahead of Labour As Speculation Engulfs PM Clark's Private Life – Minor Party Support Continues To Rise". Roy Morgan Research. 7 October 2006. Retrieved 23 October 2010.
  19. ↑ "In New Zealand: Labour Up 4% To 40% – National Party Support Also 40%". Roy Morgan Research. 21 October 2006. Archived from the original on 7 November 2006. Retrieved 19 June 2011.
  20. ↑ "ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll: Oct 2006". ONE News (Television New Zealand). 23 October 2006. Retrieved 19 June 2011.
  21. ↑ "In New Zealand: National Hold A Small Lead Over Labour". Roy Morgan Research. 4 November 2006. Retrieved 19 June 2011.
  22. 1 2 TV3 (6 November 2006). "Poll fuels speculation of National coup". The New Zealand Herald. APN News & Media. Retrieved 19 June 2011.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  23. ↑ "In New Zealand: National Extend Their Lead Over Labour". Roy Morgan Research. 18 November 2006. Retrieved 19 June 2011.
  24. ↑ "New Zealand Nationals Extend Lead to 5%". Roy Morgan Research. 2 December 2006. Retrieved 19 June 2011.
  25. 1 2 Oliver, Paula (5 December 2006). "Key's takeover puts brakes on Labour rise". The New Zealand Herald. APN News & Media. Retrieved 19 June 2011.
  26. ↑ "In New Zealand: National Support Up 2% To 44.5%". Roy Morgan Research. 19 December 2006. Retrieved 19 June 2011.
  27. ↑ "In New Zealand: Support For Labour Up 3.5% In January". Roy Morgan Research. 30 January 2007. Retrieved 19 June 2011.
  28. 1 2 "Poll good news for Green Party and Key". TV3. (MediaWorks New Zealand). 5 February 2007. Archived from the original on 19 November 2007.
  29. 1 2 ONE News, 19 February 2007, ONE News report, Party source, Preferred Prime Minister
  30. ↑ Roy Morgan Research, 27 February 2007 Source
  31. ↑ Roy Morgan Research, 14 March 2007 Source
  32. ↑ Roy Morgan Research, 24 March 2007 Source
  33. 1 2 ONE News, 25 March 2007, ONE News report, Party support, Preferred Prime Minister
  34. 1 2 Scoop.co.nz, 1 April 2007, "Source" (PDF). (139 KB)
  35. ↑ Roy Morgan Research, 13 April 2007, Source
  36. ↑ Roy Morgan Research, 24 April 2007, Source
  37. 1 2 ONE News, 22 April 2007, ONE News report, Party support, Preferred Prime Minister
  38. ↑ Roy Morgan Research, 15 May 2007 Source
  39. 1 2 TV3, 13 May 2007, "Source" (PDF). (137 KB)
  40. ↑ Roy Morgan Research, 25 May 2007 Source
  41. 1 2 The New Zealand Herald, 26 May 2007 Source
  42. 1 2 ONE News, 27 May 2007, ONE News report, Party support, Preferred PM
  43. ↑ Roy Morgan Research, 15 June 2007 Source
  44. ↑ Roy Morgan Research, 27 June 2007 Source
  45. ↑ The New Zealand Herald, 25 June 2007 Source
  46. ↑ Roy Morgan Research, 11 July 2007 Source
  47. 1 2 ONE News, 8 July 2007, ONE News report, Party support, Preferred Prime Minister
  48. ↑ TV3 (New Zealand), 15 July 2007 "Source" (PDF). (138 KB)
  49. 1 2 3 UMR Research, 15 October 2007 "Source" (PDF). (111 KB)
  50. ↑ Roy Morgan Research, 24 July 2007 Source
  51. 1 2 The New Zealand Herald, 23 July 2007 Source
  52. ↑ Roy Morgan Research, 8 August 2007 Source
  53. 1 2 ONE News, 12 August 2007, ONE News report, Party support, Preferred Prime Minister
  54. ↑ Roy Morgan Research, 21 August 2007 Source
  55. ↑ Roy Morgan Research, 13 September 2007 Source
  56. 1 2 Fairfax Media, 15 September 2007 Source
  57. 1 2 ONE News, 16 September 2007, ONE News report, Party support, Preferred Prime Minister
  58. ↑ Roy Morgan Research, 25 September 2007 Source
  59. ↑ UMR Research, 19 September 2007 "Source" (PDF). (112 KB)
  60. 1 2 The New Zealand Herald, 29 September 2007 Source; Curia newsletter, September 2007
  61. ↑ Roy Morgan Research, 9 October 2007 Source
  62. 1 2 ONE News, 14 October 2007, ONE News report, Party support, Preferred Prime Minister
  63. ↑ Roy Morgan Research, 26 October 2007 Source
  64. 1 2 The New Zealand Herald, 30 October 2007 Source, source
  65. ↑ Roy Morgan Research, 9 November 2007 Source
  66. ↑ Roy Morgan Research, 20 November 2007 Source
  67. 1 2 The New Zealand Herald, 28 November 2007 Source
  68. 1 2 Fairfax Media, 17 November 2007 Source
  69. ↑ Roy Morgan Research, 4 December 2007 Source
  70. 1 2 ONE News, 17 December 2007, ONE News report Party support, Preferred Prime Minister
  71. ↑ Roy Morgan Research, 18 December 2007 Source
  72. ↑ Roy Morgan Research, 25 January 2008 Source
  73. 1 2 The New Zealand Herald, 26 January 2008 Source
  74. ↑ Roy Morgan Research, 11 February 2008 Source
  75. 1 2 ONE News, 17 February 2008, ONE News report, Party support, Preferred Prime Minister
  76. ↑ Roy Morgan Research, 22 February 2008 Source
  77. 1 2 "Labour poll-axed". The Dominion Post . 23 February 2008. Archived from the original on 13 June 2011. Retrieved 28 June 2010.
  78. 1 2 The New Zealand Herald, 3 March 2008 Source
  79. ↑ Roy Morgan Research, 7 March 2008 Source
  80. 1 2 ONE News, 17 March 2008, ONE News report, Party support, Preferred Prime Minister
  81. ↑ Roy Morgan Research, 20 March 2008 Source
  82. 1 2 The New Zealand Herald, 29 March 2008 Source
  83. ↑ Roy Morgan Research, 11 April 2008 Source
  84. 1 2 Scoop.co.nz, 20 April 2008, "Source" (PDF). (143 KB)
  85. 1 2 ONE News, 20 April 2008, ONE News report, Party support, Preferred Prime Minister
  86. ↑ Roy Morgan Research, 24 April 2008 Source
  87. 1 2 Fairfax Media, 26 April 2008 Source; Curia newsletter, Issue 21, April 2008.
  88. 1 2 The New Zealand Herald, 30 April 2008 Source; Curia newsletter, Issue 21, April 2008.
  89. ↑ Roy Morgan Research, 9 May 2008 Source
  90. 1 2 Fairfax Media, 17 May 2008 Source
  91. ↑ Roy Morgan Research, 22 May 2008 Source
  92. 1 2 The New Zealand Herald, 30 May 2008 Source
  93. 1 2 Scoop.co.nz, 4 June 2008, Source .docx icon.svg DOC  (519 KB)
  94. 1 2 ONE News, 1 June 2008, ONE News report, Party support, Preferred Prime Minister
  95. ↑ Roy Morgan Research, 5 June 2008 Source
  96. ↑ Roy Morgan Research, 19 June 2008 Source
  97. 1 2 Fairfax Media, 21 June 2008 Source
  98. 1 2 ONE News, 22 June 2008, ONE News report, Party support, Preferred Prime Minister
  99. ↑ The New Zealand Herald, 28 June 2008 Source
  100. ↑ Roy Morgan Research, 4 July 2008 Source
  101. ↑ Roy Morgan Research, 18 July 2008 Source
  102. 1 2 Fairfax Media, 19 July 2008 Source
  103. 1 2 ONE News, 20 July 2008, ONE News report, Party support, Preferred Prime Minister
  104. 1 2 Curia Blog
  105. 1 2 The New Zealand Herald, 29 July 2008 Source
  106. ↑ Roy Morgan Research, 1 August 2008 Source
  107. ↑ Roy Morgan Research, 15 August 2008 Source
  108. 1 2 Fairfax Media, 16 August 2008 National Business Review article, Stuff.co.nz
  109. 1 2 ONE News, 17 August 2008, Source, "Party support" (PDF)., "Preferred Prime Minister" (PDF).
  110. 1 2 Curia Blog
  111. ↑ Roy Morgan Research, 4 September 2008 Source
  112. 1 2 The New Zealand Herald, 28 August 2008 Source
  113. 1 2 ONE News, 14 September 2008, ONE News report, Party support .docx icon.svg DOC , Preferred Prime Minister .docx icon.svg DOC
  114. ↑ "Emissions trading scheme bill passes". Radio New Zealand. Archived from the original on 14 October 2008. Retrieved 7 October 2008.
  115. ↑ "Poll all about trust, says Clark". The New Zealand Herald. 13 September 2008. Retrieved 25 September 2008.
  116. ↑ Roy Morgan Research, 17 September 2008 Source
  117. 1 2 Fairfax Media, 20 September 2008 Source and Date range
  118. 1 2 The New Zealand Herald, 26 September 2008 Source
  119. 1 2 Curia Blog and Angus Reid
  120. 1 2 ONE News, 5 October 2008, ONE News report, Party support .docx icon.svg DOC , Preferred Prime Minister .docx icon.svg DOC
  121. ↑ Roy Morgan Research, 17 September 2008 Source
  122. 1 2 TV3 Report
  123. 1 2 ONE News, 12 October 2008, ONE News report, Party support & Preferred Prime Minister .docx icon.svg DOC
  124. 1 2 Fairfax Media, 17 October 2008 Source
  125. 1 2 ONE News, 19 October 2008, ONE News report, "Party support & Preferred Prime Minister" (PDF).
  126. 1 2 TV3 Report Curiablog
  127. ↑ Roy Morgan Research, 24 October 2008 Source
  128. 1 2 The New Zealand Herald, 24 October 2008 Source
  129. 1 2 ONE News, 26 October 2008, One News Report,Colmar Brunton Website
  130. ↑ TV3 Report Curiablog
  131. 1 2 ONE News, 6 November 2008, ONE News report, "ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll Nov 1 – Nov 5" (PDF).
  132. ↑ The New Zealand Herald, 7 November 2008 Source
  133. ↑ Fairfax Media, 7 November 2008 Source
  134. ↑ Roy Morgan Research, 7 November 2008 Source
  135. ↑ "Official Count Results – Overall Status". New Zealand Ministry of Justice. Archived from the original on 9 February 2009. Retrieved 25 November 2008.
This page is based on this Wikipedia article
Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply.
Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.