Opinion polling has been commissioned throughout the duration of the 48th New Zealand Parliament and in the leadup to the 2008 election by various organisations, the main four being Television New Zealand, TV3, The New Zealand Herald and Roy Morgan Research. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.
Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey firms.
Poll | Date | Labour | National | NZ First | Māori | Green | ACT | United Future | Prog |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2005 election result | 17 September 2005 | 41.1 | 39.1 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
Roy Morgan Research [1] | 17 September–2 October 2005 | 36.5 | 41.5 | 4.5 | 3 | 9 | 1.5 | 3 | 1 |
Roy Morgan Research [1] | 4–16 October 2005 | 39 | 40.5 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 1 |
Roy Morgan Research [1] | 18–31 October 2005 | 37.5 | 40 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 3.5 | 0.5 |
3 News TNS [2] | 27 October–2 November 2005 | 44 | 37 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 7 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 |
One News Colmar Brunton [3] | 20 November 2005 | 40 | 44 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | |
Herald-DigiPoll [4] | 30 November 2005 [nb 1] | 43.8 | 41.7 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 1.3 | |
One News Colmar Brunton [5] | 11 December 2005 | 37 | 46 | 4 | 2.1 | 7 | |||
Roy Morgan International [6] | 13–23 January 2006 | 39 | 40.5 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 8.5 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 0.0 |
Sunday Star-Times/BRC [7] | 16–25 January 2006 | 42 | 43 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | |
3 News TNS [2] | 26 January–2 February 2006 | 44 | 38 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 7 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
One News Colmar Brunton [8] | 19 February 2006 | 42 | 45 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | |
3 News TNS [2] | 23–29 March 2006 | 43 | 40 | 4.3 | 3 | 6 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 0.2 |
Herald-DigiPoll [9] | 10 April 2006 | 43.4 | 44.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 5.2 | 1.1 | 1.5 | |
3 News TNS [2] | 4–10 May 2006 | 42 | 41 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 6 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 0.2 |
18 May 2006 – 2006 New Zealand budget presented to Parliament. | |||||||||
One News Colmar Brunton [10] | 22–25 May 2006 | 38 | 47 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.1 |
3 News TNS [2] | 29 June–5 July 2006 | 46 | 39 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 6 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
One News Colmar Brunton [11] | 16 July 2006 | 43 | 45 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0.8 | |
One News Colmar Brunton [12] | 7–10 August 2006 | 43 | 45 | 3 | 2.6 | 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
Herald-DigiPoll [13] | 31 August 2006 [nb 1] | 38.7 | 46.4 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
3 News TNS [2] | 24–30 August 2006 | 43 | 40 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 7 | 1 | 1.2 | 0.2 |
Roy Morgan Research [14] | 28 August–10 September 2006 | 41 | 38 | 5.5 | 3 | 8.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 0.5 |
13 September 2006 – National Party leader Don Brash takes leave to sort out marital problems amidst rumours he had an affair. [15] | |||||||||
Poll | Date | Labour | National | NZ First | Māori | Green | ACT | United Future | Prog |
Herald-DigiPoll [16] | 22–24 September 2006 | 38 | 45.7 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 6.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
One News Colmar Brunton [17] | 18–21 September 2006 | 38 | 49 | – | 3 | 6 | – | – | – |
Roy Morgan Research [18] | 16 September–1 October 2006 | 36 | 41.5 | 7 | 2.5 | 8.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | – |
Roy Morgan Research [19] | 2–15 October 2006 | 40 | 40 | 5 | 1.5 | 8.5 | 2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
One News Colmar Brunton [20] | 16–19 October 2006 | 36 | 49 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 6 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
Roy Morgan Research [21] | 16–29 October 2006 | 38.5 | 41 | 3 | 2.5 | 8 | 1.5 | 3 | – |
3 News TNS [22] | 26 October–1 November 2006 | 42 | 40 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 7 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 0.2 |
Roy Morgan Research [23] | 30 October–12 November 2006 | 38.5 | 42.5 | 5 | 2.5 | 7.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
Roy Morgan Research [24] | 13–26 November 2006 | 37.5 | 42.5 | 4.5 | 2 | 8 | 1.5 | 3 | – |
27 November 2006 – John Key becomes leader of the National Party. | |||||||||
Herald-DigiPoll [25] | 14 November–2 December 2006 | 41.7 | 42.8 | 3.4 | 2 | 6.1 | 1 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
Roy Morgan Research [26] | 27 November–12 December 2006 | 37.5 | 44.5 | 4 | 1 | 9.5 | 0.5 | 2 | 0.5 |
Roy Morgan Research [27] | 3–21 January 2007 | 41 | 41 | 4 | 2 | 7.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 0.5 |
3 News TNS [28] | 25 January–1 February 2007 | 44 | 41 | 2.8 | 2 | 8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
Roy Morgan Research [1] | 23 January–5 February 2007 | 39.5 | 41.5 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 |
13 February 2007 – Taito Phillip Field is expelled from the Labour Party caucus after saying he would stand for election at the 2008 election, either with Labour or as an independent. | |||||||||
Poll | Date | Labour | National | NZ First | Māori | Green | ACT | United Future | Prog |
One News Colmar Brunton [29] | 12–15 February 2007 | 39 | 46 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
Roy Morgan Research [30] | 6–18 February 2007 | 36 | 48.5 | 3 | 1.5 | 8.5 | 1 | 1.5 | – |
Roy Morgan Research [31] | 19 February–4 March 2007 | 36 | 45 | 2 | 3.5 | 8.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
Roy Morgan Research [32] | 5–18 March 2007 | 37.5 | 45 | 4 | 3.5 | 7.5 | 1 | 1.5 | – |
One News Colmar Brunton [33] | 17–22 March 2007 | 37 | 46 | 2 | 3.4 | 7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.1 |
3 News TNS [34] | 22–28 March 2007 | 44 | 42 | 1.2 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
Roy Morgan Research [35] | 19 March–2 April 2007 | 35.5 | 46 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 9.5 | 1 | 1 | – |
Roy Morgan Research [36] | 3–16 April 2007 | 33.5 | 45.5 | 6 | 2 | 8.5 | 1 | 2 | – |
One News Colmar Brunton [37] | 14–19 April 2007 | 39 | 49 | 2 | 1.7 | 6 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
Roy Morgan Research [38] | 23 April–6 May 2007 | 36 | 49.5 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 6 | 0.5 | 1.5 | – |
3 News TNS [39] | 3–9 May 2007 | 36 | 48 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 8 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
16 May 2007 – Parliament passes the Crimes (Substituted Section 59) Amendment Act 2007. | |||||||||
17 May 2007 – 2007 New Zealand budget presented to Parliament. | |||||||||
Roy Morgan Research [40] | 7–20 May 2007 | 32 | 49 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | – |
Herald-DigiPoll [41] | 18–24 May 2007 | 33.6 | 50.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 6.1 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
One News Colmar Brunton [42] | 19–24 May 2007 | 31 | 56 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 6 | 0.4 | 1 | 0.2 |
Roy Morgan Research [43] | 21 May–3 June 2007 | 33.5 | 50.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 6.5 | 0.5 | 2 | 0.5 |
7 June 2007 – The Reserve Bank intervenes in the currency market by selling New Zealand Dollars in an attempt halt the increase in value of the currency. | |||||||||
Poll | Date | Labour | National | NZ First | Māori | Green | ACT | United Future | Prog |
Roy Morgan Research [44] | 4–17 June 2007 | 36 | 49.5 | 3 | 1.5 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Herald-DigiPoll [45] | 4–22 June 2007 | 40.1 | 48.2 | 3 | 2.4 | 4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | – |
Roy Morgan Research [46] | 18 June–1 July 2007 | 34 | 48.5 | 2.5 | 2 | 8.5 | 1 | 1.5 | 1 |
1 July 2007 – Introduction of several government policies, including 20 hours funded childcare for 3 and 4-year olds and the Kiwisaver retirement savings scheme. | |||||||||
One News Colmar Brunton [47] | 30 June–5 July 2007 | 36 | 52 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
3 News TNS [48] | 5–11 July 2007 | 36 | 48 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | – |
UMR Research [49] | c. 15 July 2007 | 36 | 50 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 7.1 | 0.4 | 0.8 | – |
Roy Morgan Research [50] | 2–15 July 2007 | 36 | 47 | 5 | 2 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 0.5 |
Herald-DigiPoll [51] | 5–19 July 2007 | 42 | 48.5 | 2 | 1.8 | 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | – |
Roy Morgan Research [52] | 16–29 July 2007 | 35 | 49 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
One News Colmar Brunton [53] | 4–9 August 2007 | 36 | 53 | 2.6 | 1 | 5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
UMR Research [49] | c. 15 August 2007 | 35 | 49 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 7.7 | 0.6 | 1.1 | – |
Roy Morgan Research [54] | 30 July–12 August 2007 | 31 | 50.5 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 1.5 | 2 | 0.5 |
Roy Morgan Research [55] | 20 August–2 September 2007 | 34 | 48 | 2.5 | 3 | 9.5 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
3 News TNS [2] | 30 August–5 September 2007 | 37 | 47 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 7 | 1.5 | 0.1 | – |
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [56] | 15 September 2007 | 36 | 50 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
One News Colmar Brunton [57] | 8–13 September 2007 | 39 | 49 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
Roy Morgan Research [58] | 3–16 September 2007 | 35 | 49 | 2.5 | 3 | 7.5 | 1.5 | 1 | – |
UMR Research [59] | 13–19 September 2007 | 34 | 51 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 6.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | – |
Herald-DigiPoll [60] | 29 September 2007 [nb 1] | 39.6 | 44.8 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 7.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Roy Morgan Research [61] | 17–30 September 2007 | 33 | 48.5 | 3 | 2.5 | 9.5 | 1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
One News Colmar Brunton [62] | 6–11 October 2007 | 37 | 49 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Roy Morgan Research [63] | 1–14 October 2007 | 39 | 45.5 | 3 | 2 | 7.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | – |
UMR Research [49] | 11–15 October 2007 | 38 | 49 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 6.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | – |
15 October 2007 – Operation 8 police raids on activists. | |||||||||
Poll | Date | Labour | National | NZ First | Māori | Green | ACT | United Future | Prog |
Herald-DigiPoll [64] | 8–28 October 2007 | 38.8 | 51.2 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 5.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | – |
Roy Morgan Research [65] | 15–28 October 2007 | 40.5 | 45 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 6.5 | 1 | 1.5 | – |
Roy Morgan Research [66] | 29 October–11 November 2007 | 34 | 48 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 7.5 | 1 | 1 | – |
12 November 2007 – The New Zealand Herald dedicates its front page to criticism of the Electoral Finance Bill under headline "Democracy under attack". | |||||||||
Herald-DigiPoll [67] | 8–26 November 2007 | 38.1 | 51.3 | 2.1 | 3 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [68] | 17 November 2007 [nb 1] | 40 | 45 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Roy Morgan Research [69] | 12–25 November 2007 | 35 | 48 | 5 | 2.5 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
3 News TNS [2] | 8–13 December 2007 | 36 | 51 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | – |
One News Colmar Brunton [70] | 8–13 December 2007 | 35 | 54 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 4.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
Roy Morgan Research [71] | 26 November–9 December 2007 | 34.5 | 47.5 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Roy Morgan Research [72] | 3–20 January 2008 | 33.5 | 52 | 3.5 | 2 | 6.5 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Herald-DigiPoll [73] | 10–24 January 2008 | 38.7 | 47.5 | 3 | 1 | 9.1 | 0.7 | 0 | 0 |
3 News TNS [2] | 23–30 January 2008 | 35 | 49 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | – |
29 January, 30 January 2008 – John Key and Helen Clark open their election year campaigns with speeches focusing on youth issues. | |||||||||
Poll | Date | Labour | National | NZ First | Māori | Green | ACT | United Future | Prog |
Roy Morgan Research [74] | 21 January–3 February 2008 | 36.5 | 45.5 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
One News Colmar Brunton [75] | 9–14 February 2008 | 34 | 53 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
Roy Morgan Research [76] | 4–17 February 2008 | 32.5 | 51.5 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [77] | 13–19 February 2008 | 32 | 55 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
3 News TNS [2] | 19–26 February 2008 | 35 | 51 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Herald-DigiPoll [78] | 11–28 February 2008 | 36.5 | 54.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 4.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0 |
Roy Morgan Research [79] | 18 February–2 March 2008 | 35 | 49.5 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
One News Colmar Brunton [80] | 8–13 March 2008 | 35 | 50 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Roy Morgan Research [81] | 3–16 March 2008 | 34 | 51 | 3 | 2 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 0.5 |
Herald-DigiPoll [82] | 6–27 March 2008 | 39.3 | 49.9 | 1.1 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0 | – |
Roy Morgan Research [83] | 24 March–6 April 2008 | 34.5 | 47 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
3 News TNS [84] | 10–16 April 2008 | 38 | 48 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 5.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | – |
One News Colmar Brunton [85] | 12–17 April 2008 | 35 | 54 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Roy Morgan Research [86] | 7–20 April 2008 | 35.5 | 50 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | – |
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [87] | 9–22 April 2008 | 34 | 52 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Herald-DigiPoll [88] | 5–26 April 2008 | 37.2 | 52.1 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 5.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0 |
Poll | Date | Labour | National | NZ First | Māori | Green | ACT | United Future | Prog |
Roy Morgan Research [89] | 21 April–4 May 2008 | 35.5 | 49.5 | 4.5 | 2 | 6.5 | 1 | 1 | – |
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [90] | 7–13 May 2008 | 29 | 56 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
17 May 2008 – 2008 New Zealand budget presented to Parliament. | |||||||||
Roy Morgan Research [91] | 5–18 May 2008 | 35 | 49 | 4 | 2.5 | 7.5 | 1 | .5 | – |
Herald-DigiPoll [92] | 5–28 May 2008 | 36.2 | 51.5 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 6.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0 |
3 News TNS [93] | 23–29 May 2008 | 35 | 50 | 3.9 | 2 | 5.8 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
One News Colmar Brunton [94] | 24–29 May 2008 | 29 | 55 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Roy Morgan Research [95] | 19 May–1 June 2008 | 32 | 50.5 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 1.5 | 1 | – |
Roy Morgan Research [96] | 2–15 June 2008 | 31.5 | 52.5 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0.5 | – |
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [97] | 11–17 June 2008 | 30 | 54 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | – |
One News Colmar Brunton [98] | 14–19 June 2008 | 29 | 55 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0 |
Herald-DigiPoll [99] | 6–25 June 2008 | 32.4 | 54.9 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 5.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
Roy Morgan Research [100] | 16–29 June 2008 | 30.5 | 51.5 | 4 | 2.5 | 8 | 2 | 1 | – |
Poll | Date | Labour | National | NZ First | Māori | Green | ACT | United Future | Prog |
Roy Morgan Research [101] | 30 June–13 July 2008 | 31 | 52 | 6.5 | 1 | 7.5 | 0.5 | 1 | – |
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [102] | 9–15 July 2008 | 35 | 51 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | – |
One News Colmar Brunton [103] | 12–17 July 2008 | 35 | 52 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0 |
3 News TNS [104] | Released 18 July 2008 | 35 | 48 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Herald-DigiPoll [105] | Released 29 July 2008 | 30.8 | 55.4 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 5.5 | 0.2 | 0.9 | – |
Roy Morgan Research [106] | 14–27 July 2008 | 32.5 | 47.5 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 2.5 | 0.5 | – |
Roy Morgan Research [107] | 28 July–10 August 2008 | 34 | 48 | 6.5 | 2 | 7.5 | 1.5 | 0 | – |
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [108] | 6–12 August 2008 | 35 | 54 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | – |
One News Colmar Brunton [109] | 9–14 August 2008 | 37 | 51 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
3 News TNS [110] | 14–20 August 2008 | 37 | 48 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Roy Morgan Research [111] | 18–31 August 2008 | 38 | 44.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 8 | 1.5 | 1 | – |
Herald-DigiPoll [112] | 3–25 August 2008 | 36.3 | 50 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0 | – |
One News Colmar Brunton [113] | 6–11 September 2008 | 35 | 53 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
11 September 2008 – Parliament passes a law creating the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme. [114] | |||||||||
12 September 2008 – Helen Clark announces the election will be held 8 November 2008. [115] | |||||||||
Poll | Date | Labour | National | NZ First | Māori | Green | ACT | United Future | Prog |
Roy Morgan Research [116] | 1–14 September 2008 | 36.5 | 47.5 | 5 | 1.5 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | – |
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [117] | 10–16 September 2008 | 34 | 52 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 1 | – | – |
Herald-DigiPoll [118] | 15–24 September 2008 | 35.7 | 51.4 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
3 News TNS [119] | 18–24 September 2008 | 36 | 49 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
One News Colmar Brunton [120] | 27 September–2 October 2008 | 33 | 52 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
Roy Morgan Research [121] | 22 September –5 October 2008 | 37.5 | 40.5 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 3.5 | 1 | 1 |
3 News TNS [122] | Released 10 October 2008 | 39 | 45 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 6.7 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
One News Colmar Brunton [123] | 4–9 October 2008 | 33 | 51 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 8 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [124] | 8–14 October 2008 | 33 | 51 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
One News Colmar Brunton [125] | 11–16 October 2008 | 36 | 50 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
3 News TNS [126] | Released 23 October 2008 | 37.4 | 45.1 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 8.8 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Poll | Date | Labour | National | NZ First | Māori | Green | ACT | United Future | Prog |
Roy Morgan Research [127] | 6–19 October 2008 | 32 | 43 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 11.5 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Herald-DigiPoll [128] | 15–22 October 2008 | 37.0 | 50.4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 5.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
One News Colmar Brunton [129] | 18–23 October 2008 | 35.0 | 47.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
3 News TNS [130] | Released 6 November 2008 | 33.1 | 46.0 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 9.0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
One News Colmar Brunton [131] | 1–5 November 2008 | 35.0 | 47.0 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 9.0 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
Herald-DigiPoll [132] | 29 October–5 November 2008 | 36.4 | 47.9 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [133] | Released 7 November 2008 | 31 | 49 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 1 | – |
Roy Morgan Research [134] | 20 October–2 November 2008 | 34.5 | 42 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 10 | 4 | 1 | – |
2008 election result [135] | 8 November 2008 | 33.99 | 44.93 | 4.07 | 2.39 | 6.72 | 3.65 | 0.87 | 0.91 |
Poll | Date | Helen Clark | Don Brash | John Key | Winston Peters |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
TV3–TNS [2] | 27 October – 2 November 2005 | 43 | 19 | – | 8 |
TV3–TNS [2] | 26 January – 2 February 2006 | 39 | 16 | – | 7 |
TV3–TNS [2] | 23–29 March 2006 | 38 | 15 | – | 6 |
TV3–TNS [2] | 4–10 May 2006 | 34 | 18 | – | 6 |
TV3–TNS [2] | 29 June – 5 July 2006 | 38 | 13 | 0 | 6 |
TV3–TNS [2] | 24–30 August 2006 | 38 | 17 | 0 | 5 |
Herald–DigiPoll [13] | 31 August 2006 [nb 1] | 52.4 | 22.4 | 8.5 | 5 |
Herald–DigiPoll [16] | 22–24 September 2006 | 50.8 | 25.9 | 9.2 | 4.8 |
TV3–TNS [22] | 26 October–1 November 2006 | 35 | 15 | – | – |
Herald–DigiPoll [25] | 14 November–2 December 2006 | 54.2 | 3.9 | 28.5 | – |
TV3–TNS [28] | 25 January–1 February 2007 | 35 | 1 | 24 | 5 |
One News–Colmar Brunton [29] | 12–15 February 2007 | 32 | – | 27 | 3 |
One News–Colmar Brunton [33] | 17–22 March 2007 | 32 | – | 29 | 4 |
TV3–TNS [34] | 22–28 March 2007 | 37 | 1 | 28 | 4 |
One News–Colmar Brunton [37] | 14–19 April 2007 | 37 | 1 | 29 | 3 |
TV3–TNS [39] | 3–9 May 2007 | 30 | 1 | 32 | 5 |
Herald–DigiPoll [41] | 18–24 May 2007 | 42.1 | – | 45.5 | 5.4 |
One News–Colmar Brunton [42] | 19–24 May 2007 | 27 | 0.3 | 38 | 2 |
Poll | Date | Helen Clark | Don Brash | John Key | Winston Peters |
One News–Colmar Brunton [47] | 30 June–5 July 2007 | 29 | 0.5 | 35 | 2 |
TV3–TNS [2] | 5–11 July 2007 | 31 | 1 | 31 | 4 |
Herald–DigiPoll [51] | 5–19 July 2007 | 48.7 | – | 37.9 | 7 |
One News–Colmar Brunton [53] | 4–9 August 2007 | 30 | 0.7 | 33 | 4 |
TV3–TNS [2] | 30 August – 5 September 2007 | 28 | 1 | 32 | 6 |
Fairfax Media Poll [56] | 15 September 2007 [nb 1] | 34 | – | 41 | 3 |
One News–Colmar Brunton [57] | 8–13 September 2007 | 33 | 0.3 | 31 | 4 |
Herald–DigiPoll [60] | 29 September 2007 [nb 1] | 46.8 | – | 42.2 | – |
One News–Colmar Brunton [62] | 6–11 October 2007 | 33 | 0.2 | 33 | 3 |
Herald–DigiPoll [64] | 8–28 October 2007 | 50.8 | – | 37.3 | 5 |
Fairfax Media Poll [68] | 17 November 2007 [nb 1] | 38 | – | 36 | – |
Herald–DigiPoll [67] | 8–26 November 2007 | 48.7 | – | 36.7 | 8.1 |
TV3–TNS [2] | 5–12 December 2007 | 28 | – | 33 | 6 |
One News–Colmar Brunton [70] | 8–13 December 2007 | 30 | 0.2 | 35 | 2 |
Herald–DigiPoll [73] | 10–24 January 2008 | 49.7 | – | 39.2 | 3.8 |
TV3–TNS [2] | 23–30 January 2008 | 29 | – | 33 | 6 |
One News–Colmar Brunton [75] | 9–14 February 2008 | 27 | 0.4 | 36 | 4 |
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [77] | 13–19 February 2008 | 29 | – | 44 | – |
TV3–TNS [2] | 19–26 February 2008 | 28 | – | 35 | 5 |
Herald–DigiPoll [78] | 11–28 February 2008 | 44.3 | 0.2 | 46.3 | 3.3 |
One News–Colmar Brunton [80] | 8–13 March 2008 | 31 | – | 36 | 5 |
Herald–DigiPoll [82] | 6–27 March 2008 | 45.6 | – | 45.9 | 3.9 |
Poll | Date | Helen Clark | Don Brash | John Key | Winston Peters |
TV3–TNS [84] | 10–16 April 2008 | 32 | – | 29 | 6 |
One News–Colmar Brunton [85] | 12–17 April 2008 | 29 | – | 35 | 4 |
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [87] | 9–22 April 2008 | 33 | – | 42 | – |
Herald–DigiPoll [88] | 5–26 April 2008 | 45.3 | – | 48 | – |
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [90] | 7–13 May 2008 | 28 | – | 45 | 5 |
Herald–DigiPoll [92] | 5–28 May 2008 | 42.3 | – | 44.6 | 6.7 |
TV3–TNS [93] | 23–29 May 2008 | 29 | – | 35 | 6 |
One News–Colmar Brunton [94] | 24–29 May 2008 | 28 | – | 36 | 6 |
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [97] | 11–17 June 2008 | 30 | – | 43 | 2 |
One News–Colmar Brunton [98] | 14–19 June 2008 | 27 | 0.2 | 38 | 4 |
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [102] | 9–15 July 2008 | 32 | – | 39 | 3 |
One News–Colmar Brunton [103] | 12–17 July 2008 | 31 | 0.3 | 38 | 4 |
TV3–TNS [104] | Released 18 July 2008 | 28 | – | 32 | 6 |
Herald–DigiPoll [105] | Released 29 July 2008 | 44 | – | 47.1 | 4.9 |
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [108] | 6–12 August 2008 | 31 | – | 43 | 2 |
One News–Colmar Brunton [109] | 9–14 August 2008 | 33 | – | 36 | 3 |
TV3–TNS [110] | 14–20 August 2008 | 31 | – | 34 | 3 |
Herald–DigiPoll [112] | 3–25 August 2008 | 45 | – | 46.6 | 5.6 |
Poll | Date | Helen Clark | Don Brash | John Key | Winston Peters |
One News-Colmar Brunton [113] | 6–11 September 2008 | 31 | 0.1 | 40 | 3 |
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [117] | 10–16 September 2008 | 30 | – | 41 | 2 |
Herald–DigiPoll [118] | 15–24 September 2008 | 43.1 | – | 45.5 | 4 |
TV3–TNS [119] | Released 28 September 2008 | 32 | – | 34 | – |
One News-Colmar Brunton [120] | 27 September–2 October 2008 | 31 | – | 41 | 3 |
TV3–TNS [122] | Released 10 October 2008 | 31.6 | – | 31 | – |
One News-Colmar Brunton [123] | 4–9 October 2008 | 31 | – | 39 | 2 |
Fairfax Media–Nielsen [124] | 8–14 October 2008 | 35 | – | 43 | – |
One News-Colmar Brunton [125] | 11–16 October 2008 | 34 | 0.1 | 40 | 2 |
TV3–TNS [126] | Released 23 October 2008 | 36.3 | – | 36.3 | – |
Herald–DigiPoll [128] | 15–22 October 2008 | 45.4 | – | 44.8 | 4.0 |
One News-Colmar Brunton [129] | 18–23 October 2008 | 37 | - | 38 | 3 |
One News-Colmar Brunton [131] | 1–5 November 2008 | 36 | – | 40 | 1 |
Republicanism in Australia is a movement to change Australia's system of government from a constitutional monarchy to a republic; presumably, a form of parliamentary republic that would replace the monarch of Australia with a non-royal Australian head of state. It is opposed to monarchism in Australia. Republicanism was first espoused in Australia before Federation in 1901. After a period of decline following Federation, the movement again became prominent at the end of the 20th century after successive legal and socio-cultural changes loosened Australia's ties with the United Kingdom.
Donald Thomas Brash is a former New Zealand politician who was Leader of the Opposition and leader of the New Zealand National Party from October 2003 to November 2006, and leader of the ACT New Zealand party for seven months from April to November 2011.
David Richard Cunliffe is a New Zealand management consultant and former politician who was Leader of the New Zealand Labour Party and Leader of the Opposition from September 2013 to September 2014. He was Member of Parliament (MP) for Titirangi and then New Lynn for the Labour Party between 1999 and 2017. He served as the Minister of Health, Minister for Communications and Information Technology and Minister of Immigration for the Fifth Labour Government of New Zealand from October 2007 until November 2008.
Republicanism in New Zealand is the political position that New Zealand's system of government should be changed from a constitutional monarchy to a republic.
The 2011 New Zealand general election took place on Saturday 26 November 2011 to determine the membership of the 50th New Zealand Parliament.
Opinion polling has been commissioned throughout the duration of the 49th New Zealand Parliament and in the leadup to the 2011 election by various organisations. The main four are Television New Zealand, TV3, The New Zealand Herald and Roy Morgan Research. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.
Helen Elizabeth Clark is a New Zealand politician who served as the 37th prime minister of New Zealand from 1999 to 2008 and was the administrator of the United Nations Development Programme from 2009 to 2017. She was New Zealand's fifth-longest-serving prime minister, and the second woman to hold that office.
Opinion polling was commissioned throughout the duration of the 47th New Zealand Parliament and in the lead up to the 2005 election by various organisations.
Opinion polling for the 2014 New Zealand general election has been commissioned throughout the duration of the 50th New Zealand Parliament by various organisations. The five main polling organisations are Fairfax Media, MediaWorks New Zealand, The New Zealand Herald, Roy Morgan Research, and Television New Zealand. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.
The 2011 New Zealand Labour Party leadership election was held on 13 December 2011 to choose the thirteenth Leader of the New Zealand Labour Party. A Deputy Leader and a senior and a junior whip were also elected. Following the Labour Party's loss in the 2011 general election, leader Phil Goff and deputy leader Annette King resigned, prompting the leadership election, which was conducted as a secret ballot of the Labour caucus.
The 2013 New Zealand Labour Party leadership election was held on 15 September 2013 to choose the fourteenth Leader of the New Zealand Labour Party. The election was won by David Cunliffe.
The 2017 New Zealand general election took place on Saturday 23 September 2017 to determine the membership of the 52nd New Zealand Parliament. The previous parliament was elected on 20 September 2014 and was officially dissolved on 22 August 2017. Voters elected 120 members to the House of Representatives under New Zealand's mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system, a proportional representation system in which 71 members were elected from single-member electorates and 49 members were elected from closed party lists. Around 3.57 million people were registered to vote in the election, with 2.63 million (79.8%) turning out. Advance voting proved popular, with 1.24 million votes cast before election day, more than the previous two elections combined.
Various organisations commissioned opinion polls for the 2017 New Zealand general election during the term of the 51st New Zealand Parliament (2014–2017). Roy Morgan Research polled monthly, with MediaWorks New Zealand and Television New Zealand polling less frequently. The last The New Zealand Herald was in December 2015, and Fairfax Media discontinued their poll after the 2014 election. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varied by organisation and date, but were typically 800–1000 participants with a margin of error of just over 3%.
A by-election was held in the Northland electorate on 28 March 2015. The seat had been vacated following the resignation of Mike Sabin of the National Party from the House of Representatives on 30 January 2015. Northland was generally regarded as a safe National seat; the party has held the seat since its creation for the 1996 election. The election was won by Winston Peters of New Zealand First. As Peters was already a list MP for his party, this allowed New Zealand First an additional list member, Ria Bond, to join parliament.
Several research and polling firms conducted polls during the parliamentary term and prior to the 2016 Australian federal election on 2 July in relation to voting intention for the Australian House of Representatives and leader ratings. Most firms use the flow of preferences at the previous election to determine the two-party-preferred vote; others ask respondents to nominate their second preference before applying the preference flows at the previous election.
Several polling firms conducted opinion polls during the term of the 52nd New Zealand Parliament in the lead up to the 2020 general election, which elects the 53rd Parliament. The 52nd Parliament was elected on 23 September 2017 and dissolved on 6 September 2020. The 2020 election was originally due to take place on Saturday 19 September 2020, but due to a second COVID-19 outbreak it was delayed until Saturday 17 October 2020.
The 2016 New Zealand National Party leadership election was held on 12 December 2016 to determine the next Leader of the National Party and the 39th Prime Minister of New Zealand. A secret exhaustive ballot of the 59-member National parliamentary caucus was to be used in the event of a contested leadership.
The 2017 New Zealand Labour Party leadership election was held on 1 August 2017 to choose the next Leader of the New Zealand Labour Party. The election was won by Deputy Leader and Mount Albert MP Jacinda Ardern.
Several polling firms conducted opinion polls during the term of the 53rd New Zealand Parliament (2020–2023) for the 2023 New Zealand general election. The regular polls are the quarterly polls produced by Television New Zealand conducted by Verian and Discovery New Zealand (Newshub) conducted by Reid Research, along with monthly polls by Roy Morgan, and by Curia. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.
Several polling firms have conducted opinion polls during the term of the 54th New Zealand Parliament (2023–present) for the next New Zealand general election. The regular polls are the quarterly polls produced by Television New Zealand conducted by Verian, along with monthly polls by Roy Morgan and by Curia. Curia Market Research is no longer a member of the Research Association of New Zealand, following complaints and the resignation from RANZ by its principal, David Farrar. The sample size, margin of error, and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.
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