Next New Zealand general election

Last updated

Next New Zealand general election
Flag of New Zealand.svg
←  2023 No later than 19 December 2026
All 120 seats (plus any overhang) in the House of Representatives
61 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
LUXON, Christopher - Botany (cropped).png
Profile--chrishipkins-390x2-UNC.jpg
Marama Davidson and Chloe Swarbrick.png
Leader Christopher Luxon Chris Hipkins Marama Davidson
Chlöe Swarbrick
Party National Labour Green
Leader since 30 November 2021 22 January 2023 8 April 2018
10 March 2024
Leader's seat Botany Remutaka List
Auckland Central
Last election48 seats, 38.06%34 seats, 26.91%15 seats, 11.06%
Current seats493415
Seats neededIncrease2.svg12Increase2.svg27Increase2.svg46
 
David Seymour 2023 cropped headshot.jpg
Winston Peters 2024 US Deputy Secretary visit (further crop).jpg
Debbie Ngarewa-Packer and Rawiri Waititi.jpg
Leader David Seymour Winston Peters Debbie Ngarewa-Packer
Rawiri Waititi
Party ACT NZ First Te Pāti Māori
Leader since4 October 201418 July 199315 April 2020
28 October 2020
Leader's seat Epsom List Te Tai Hauāuru
Waiariki
Last election11 seats, 8.64%8 seats, 6.08%6 seats, 3.08%
Current seats1186
Seats neededIncrease2.svg50Increase2.svg53Increase2.svg55
Incumbent Prime Minister

Christopher Luxon
National



The next New Zealand general election will be held after the current 54th New Zealand Parliament is dissolved or expires. The current Parliament was elected on Saturday, 14 October 2023. The last possible date for the election to be held is Saturday, 19 December 2026.

Contents

Voters will elect 120 members to the House of Representatives under New Zealand's mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system, a proportional representation system in which 71 members are elected from single-member electorates and 49 members are elected from closed party lists.

After the previous election, the centre-right National Party, led by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, formed a coalition government with the ACT and New Zealand First parties. The main opponent to the National-ACT-NZ First government is the centre-left Labour Party, led by former Prime Minister Chris Hipkins. Other opposition parties include the left-wing Green Party and the indigenous rights-based Te Pāti Māori.

Electoral system

New Zealand uses the mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system to elect the House of Representatives. Each voter gets two votes, one for a political party (the party vote) and one for a local candidate (the electorate vote). Political parties which meet the threshold (5% of the party vote or one electorate seat) receive seats in the House in proportion to the percentage of the party vote they receive. 72 of the 120 seats are filled by the MPs elected from the electorates, with the winner in each electorate determined by the first past the post method (i.e. most votes wins). The remaining 48 seats are filled by candidates from each party's closed party list. If a party wins more electorates than seats it is entitled to under the party vote, an overhang results; in this case, the House will add extra seats to cover the overhang.

The political party or party bloc with the majority of the seats in the House forms the Government. Since the introduction of MMP in 1996, a party has only won an outright majority of seats once, when the Labour Party won 65 out of 120 seats in 2020. As a result, parties typically negotiate with other parties to form a coalition government or a minority government.

Electorate boundaries

Electorate boundaries for the next election are due to be redrawn following the 2023 census and the Electoral (Māori Electoral Option) Legislation Act, which allows Māori to switch between the General Roll and Māori Roll at any time and as often as they like excluding during certain pre-election periods. This means that unless a snap election is called before the boundary review, the next general election will be the first to use boundaries based on the 2023 census. [1] [2]

The number of South Island general electorates is fixed at 16, [3] with the number of North Island general electorates and Māori electorates increasing or decreasing in proportion. For the 2020 and 2023 elections, there were 49 North Island general electorates and seven Māori electorates.

On 25 October 2024, Statistics New Zealand announced that population changes necessitated reducing the number of North Island general electorates by one, bringing the total number of North Island general electorates to 48 and the overall number of electorates to 71 (increasing the number of list seats available by one). [4] Statistics New Zealand also announced that 17 North Island electorates, one South Island electorate (Invercargill), and one Māori electorate (Ikaroa-Rāwhiti) were below 5% tolerance, while seven North Island electorates and one South Island electorate (Selwyn) were above 5% tolerance. [5]

Election date

Unless an early election is called or the election date is set to circumvent holding a by-election, a general election is held every three years. The last election was held on Saturday, 14 October 2023. [6]

The Governor General must issue a writs for an election within seven days of the expiration or dissolution of the current Parliament. [7] Under section 17 of the Constitution Act 1986, Parliament expires three years "from the day fixed for the return of the writs issued for the last preceding general election of members of the House of Representatives, and no longer." The writs for the 2023 election were returned on 9 November 2023. As a result, the 54th Parliament will expire, if not dissolved earlier, on Monday, 9 November 2026. Consequently, the last day for issuance of writs of election is 16 November 2026. The writs must be returned within 50 days of their issuance (save for any judicial recount or death of a candidate), which will be Tuesday, 5 January 2027. [8] Because polling day must be a Saturday [8] and two weeks is generally required for the counting of special votes, the last possible date for the next general election is Saturday, 19 December 2026.

Parties and candidates

Since the 2023 election, three parties have been deregistered: DemocracyNZ on 15 February 2024, [9] [a] Leighton Baker Party on 27 May 2024, [10] [b] and New Zealand Loyal on 26 July 2024. [11] [c]

PartyLeader(s)FoundedIdeology2023 election resultCurrent seats
 % party voteseats
National Christopher Luxon 1936 Conservatism 38.08%4849
Labour Chris Hipkins 1916 Social democracy 26.92%3434
Green Marama Davidson / Chlöe Swarbrick 1990 Green politics, Social democracy 11.61%1515
ACT David Seymour 1994 Classical liberalism, Right-libertarianism 8.64%1111
NZ First Winston Peters 1993 Nationalism, social conservatism 6.09%88
Te Pāti Māori Debbie Ngarewa-Packer / Rawiri Waititi 2004 Māori rights, tino rangatiratanga 3.08%66
Opportunities 2016 Radical centrism 2.22%00
NewZeal Alfred Ngaro 2020 Social conservatism 0.56%00
Legalise Cannabis Maki Herbert / Michael Appleby 1996 Cannabis legalisation 0.45%00
Freedoms NZ Brian Tamaki / Sue Grey 2022 Right-wing populism 0.33%00
Animal Justice Anna Rippon / Robert McNeil2023 Animal rights 0.17%00
New Conservatives Helen Houghton2011 Conservatism, Traditionalism 0.15%00
Women's Rights Jill Ovens / Chimene Del La Veras2023 Gender-critical feminism 0.08%00
New Nation Michael Jacomb2022 Social conservatism 0.05%00

Opinion polling

Graph of opinion polls conducted Opinion polling for the next New Zealand general election.svg
Graph of opinion polls conducted

Seat projections

The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party (ACT retains Epsom and Tāmaki, Greens retain Auckland Central, Rongotai and Wellington Central, Te Pāti Māori retains all six of their Māori electorates, etc). Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.

When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future. [12]

SourceSeats in parliament [i] Likely
government
formation(s)
NAT LAB GRN ACT NZF TPM Total
Roy Morgan [13]
23 Sep – 20 Oct 2024 poll		3937181196120Labour–Greens–Māori (61)
1 News–Verian [14]
5–9 Oct 2024 poll		4737151066*121National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia [15]
3–7 Oct 2024 poll		4438131296**122National–ACT–NZ First (65)
Roy Morgan [16]
26 Aug – 22 Sep 2024 poll		4729171396*121National–ACT–NZ First (69)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia [17]
8–10 Sep 2024 poll		4833141186120National–ACT–NZ First (67)
Talbot Mills [18]
1–10 Sep 2024 poll		4639121086*121National–ACT–NZ First (64)
Roy Morgan [19]
29 Jul – 25 Aug 2024 poll		4533161296*121National–ACT–NZ First (66)
1 News–Verian [20]
10–14 Aug 2024 poll		493814876**122National–ACT–NZ First (64)
Roy Morgan [21]
24 Jun – 21 Jul 2024 poll		4131181488120National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia [22]
4–8 Jul 2024 poll		4733161196**122National–ACT–NZ First (67)
Roy Morgan [23]
27 May – 23 Jun 2024 poll		4435181176*121National–ACT–NZ First (62)
1 News–Verian [24]
15–19 Jun 2024 poll		473616986**122National–ACT–NZ First (64)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia [25]
4–6 Jun 2024 poll		4436161276*121National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Roy Morgan [26]
22 Apr – 19 May 2024 poll		4238171276**122 Hung parliament
Taxpayers' Union–Curia [27]
5–7 May 2024 poll		4737131276**122National–ACT–NZ First (66)
Talbot Mills [28]
30 Apr 2024 poll		424115986*121Labour–Greens–Māori (62)
1 News–Verian [29]
20–24 Apr 2024 poll		484018906*121Labour–Greens–Māori (64)
Roy Morgan [30]
25 Mar – 21 Apr 2024 poll		4531161477120National–ACT–NZ First (66)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia [31]
2–4 Apr 2024 poll		473218986120National–ACT–NZ First (64)
Roy Morgan [32]
29 Jan – 25 Feb 2024 poll		4527191595120National–ACT–NZ First (69)
Talbot Mills [33]
1–10 Feb 2024 poll		473515986120National–ACT–NZ First (64)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia [34]
1–7 Feb 2024 poll		4934111766***123National–ACT (66)
Roy Morgan [35]
8–28 Jan 2024 poll		4928201076120National–ACT–NZ First (66)
Roy Morgan [36]
Dec 2023 poll		4628201288**122National–ACT–NZ First (66)
Curia [37]
3–5 Dec 2023 poll		4636148106120National–NZ First–ACT (64)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia [38]
1–6 Nov 2023 poll		4635171086**122National–ACT–NZ First (64)
2023 election result [39]
14 Oct 2023		4834151186**122National–ACT–NZ First (67)
* indicates an overhang seat
  1. ↑ Forecasted seats are calculated using the Electoral Commission's MMP seat allocation calculator, based on polling results.

Potential four-year-term referendum

A potential four-year-term referendum might be held during the election. [40] [41]

Notes

  1. ↑ Got 0.24% of the party vote in 2023 election
  2. ↑ Got 0.07% of the party vote in 2023 election
  3. ↑ Got 1.21% of the party vote in 2023 election

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Politics of New Zealand</span>

The politics of New Zealand function within a framework of an independent, unitary, parliamentary democracy. The system of government is based on the Westminster system, and the legal system is modelled on the common law of England. New Zealand is a constitutional monarchy in which King Charles III is the sovereign and head of state, while his prime minister serves as the head of government.

The New Zealand National Party, shortened to National or the Nats, is a centre-right New Zealand political party that is the current senior ruling party. It is one of two major parties that dominate contemporary New Zealand politics, alongside its traditional rival, the Labour Party.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">ACT New Zealand</span> New Zealand political party

ACT New Zealand, also known as the ACT Party or simply ACT, is a right-wing, classical liberal, right-libertarian, and conservative political party in New Zealand. It is currently led by David Seymour, and is in coalition with the National and New Zealand First parties, as part of the Sixth National government.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Electoral reform in New Zealand</span>

Electoral reform in New Zealand has been a political issue in the past as major changes have been made to both parliamentary and local government electoral systems.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1996 New Zealand general election</span> General election in New Zealand

The 1996 New Zealand general election was held on 12 October 1996 to determine the composition of the 45th New Zealand Parliament. It was notable for being the first election to be held under the new mixed-member proportional (MMP) electoral system, and produced a parliament considerably more diverse than previous elections. Under the new MMP system, 65 members were elected in single-member districts by first-past-the-post voting, while a further 55 "top-up" members were allocated from closed lists to achieve a proportional distribution based on each party's share of the nationwide party vote.

Te Pāti Māori, also known as the Māori Party, is a political party in New Zealand advocating Māori rights. With the exception of a handful of general electorates, Te Pāti Māori contests the reserved Māori electorates, in which its main rival is the Labour Party.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Electoral system of New Zealand</span> System by which New Zealand parliament is elected

The New Zealand parliamentary electoral system has been based on the principle of mixed-member proportional (MMP) since the 1996 election. MMP was introduced following a referendum in 1993. It replaced the first-past-the-post (FPP) system New Zealand had previously used for most of its history. Under the MMP system, New Zealanders have two secret ballot votes to elect members of Parliament (MPs). The first vote is for a candidate from an electorate, a geographic electoral district. The second is the party vote for the political party the voter wants to form the government.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">History of voting in New Zealand</span> Aspect of political history

Voting in New Zealand was introduced after colonisation by Britain. The first New Zealand Constitution Act was passed in 1852, and the first parliamentary elections were held the following year.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2011 New Zealand general election</span> General election in New Zealand

The 2011 New Zealand general election took place on Saturday 26 November 2011 to determine the membership of the 50th New Zealand Parliament.

The 2011 New Zealand voting system referendum was a referendum on whether to keep the existing mixed member proportional (MMP) voting system, or to change to another voting system, for electing Members of Parliament to New Zealand's House of Representatives. It was held on 26 November 2011 in conjunction with the 2011 general election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2014 New Zealand general election</span> General election in New Zealand

The 2014 New Zealand general election took place on Saturday 20 September 2014 to determine the membership of the 51st New Zealand Parliament.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2017 New Zealand general election</span>

The 2017 New Zealand general election took place on Saturday 23 September 2017 to determine the membership of the 52nd New Zealand Parliament. The previous parliament was elected on 20 September 2014 and was officially dissolved on 22 August 2017. Voters elected 120 members to the House of Representatives under New Zealand's mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system, a proportional representation system in which 71 members were elected from single-member electorates and 49 members were elected from closed party lists. Around 3.57 million people were registered to vote in the election, with 2.63 million (79.8%) turning out. Advance voting proved popular, with 1.24 million votes cast before election day, more than the previous two elections combined.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 New Zealand general election</span>

The 2020 New Zealand general election was held on Saturday 17 October 2020 to determine the composition of the 53rd New Zealand Parliament. Voters elected 120 members to the House of Representatives, 72 from single-member electorates and 48 from closed party lists. Two referendums, one on the personal use of cannabis and one on euthanasia, were also held on the same day. Official results of the election and referendums were released on 6 November.

Several polling firms conducted opinion polls during the term of the 52nd New Zealand Parliament in the lead up to the 2020 general election, which elects the 53rd Parliament. The 52nd Parliament was elected on 23 September 2017 and dissolved on 6 September 2020. The 2020 election was originally due to take place on Saturday 19 September 2020, but due to a second COVID-19 outbreak it was delayed until Saturday 17 October 2020.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Christopher Luxon</span> Prime Minister of New Zealand since 2023

Christopher Mark Luxon is a New Zealand politician and former business executive who has been serving as the 42nd prime minister of New Zealand since 2023, previously as leader of the Opposition from 2021 to 2023, and as leader of the National Party since 2021. He has been member of Parliament (MP) for Botany since 2020. He was the chief executive officer (CEO) of Air New Zealand from 2012 to 2019.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2023 New Zealand general election</span> General election for the 54th Parliament of New Zealand

The 2023 New Zealand general election was held on 14 October 2023 to determine the composition of the 54th Parliament of New Zealand. Voters elected 122 members to the unicameral New Zealand House of Representatives under the mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system, with 71 members elected from single-member electorates and the remaining members elected from closed party lists. Of the 72 electorates, only 71 seats were filled, with the remaining electorate MP determined in the 2023 Port Waikato by-election, due to the death of one of the general election candidates. Two overhang seats were added due to Te Pāti Māori winning six electorate seats when the party vote only entitled them to four seats, with an additional overhang seat added after the by-election making for 123 members of parliament.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">53rd New Zealand Parliament</span> New Zealand parliamentary term from 2020 to 2023

The 53rd New Zealand Parliament was a meeting of the legislature in New Zealand. It opened on 25 November 2020 following the 17 October 2020 general election, and dissolved on 8 September 2023 to trigger the next election. It consisted of 120 members of Parliament (MPs) with five parties represented: the Labour and Green parties, in government, and the National, Māori and ACT parties, in opposition. The Sixth Labour Government held a majority in this Parliament. Jacinda Ardern continued as prime minister until her resignation on 25 January 2023; she was succeeded by Chris Hipkins.

Several polling firms conducted opinion polls during the term of the 53rd New Zealand Parliament (2020–2023) for the 2023 New Zealand general election. The regular polls are the quarterly polls produced by Television New Zealand conducted by Verian and Discovery New Zealand (Newshub) conducted by Reid Research, along with monthly polls by Roy Morgan, and by Curia. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

Freedoms New Zealand, also known as Freedoms NZ: Uniting Political Parties and Freedom Movements, is a registered political alliance in New Zealand, founded on 22 August 2022 by Brian Tamaki following a series of protests. Today it is co-led by Tamaki and Sue Grey. It is an "umbrella party", consisting of an alliance between Tamaki's Freedom and Rights Coalition organisation, the registered Vision NZ and Outdoors & Freedom parties, and the unregistered Yes Aotearoa and Rock The Vote NZ parties.

Several polling firms have conducted opinion polls during the term of the 54th New Zealand Parliament (2023–present) for the next New Zealand general election. The regular polls are the quarterly polls produced by Television New Zealand conducted by Verian, along with monthly polls by Roy Morgan and by Curia. Curia Market Research is no longer a member of the Research Association of New Zealand, following complaints and the resignation from RANZ by its principal, David Farrar. The sample size, margin of error, and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

References

  1. ↑ "How are electoral boundaries decided?". Electoral Commission. Retrieved 7 February 2024.
  2. ↑ "New Zealand Election Results". Ministry of Justice. Retrieved 7 February 2024.
  3. ↑ Electoral Act 1993, section 35(3)(a).
  4. ↑ "General electorates down by one, number of Māori electorates stays at seven". Stats NZ. 23 October 2024.
  5. ↑ "Number of electorates and electoral populations: 2023 Census | Stats NZ". www.stats.govt.nz. Retrieved 9 November 2024.
  6. ↑ "New Zealand Election Results". Electoral Commission. Retrieved 7 February 2024.
  7. ↑ "Electoral Act 1993, Sec. 125". Legislation.co.nz. Retrieved 7 February 2024.
  8. 1 2 "Electoral Act 1993, Sec. 139". Legislation.co.nz. Retrieved 7 February 2024.
  9. ↑ "DemocracyNZ no longer registered". Electoral Commission. 16 February 2024.
  10. ↑ "Leighton Baker Party no longer registered". Electoral Commission. 27 May 2024.
  11. ↑ "New Zealand Loyal no longer registered". New Zealand Electoral Commission. 29 July 2024.
  12. ↑ Schwartz, Dominique (20 September 2014). "John Key's National Party takes out New Zealand election". ABC News. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
  13. ↑ "National support down significantly in October after the sinking of HMNZS Manawanui in Samoa". Roy Morgan. 6 November 2024.
  14. ↑ Desmarais, Felix (14 October 2024). "Poll: Coalition remain in front, but Labour gain seats". 1 News.
  15. ↑ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: October 2024". Taxpayers' Union.
  16. ↑ "National support up in September as National-led Government increases lead to 14% points after RBNZ cut interest ratess". Roy Morgan. 8 October 2024.
  17. ↑ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: September 2024". Taxpayers' Union.
  18. ↑ Ensor, Jamie (19 September 2024). "New poll results show closer fight between Chris Hipkins, Christopher Luxon for preferred Prime Minister". NZ Herald.
  19. ↑ "National support up in August as National-led Government increases lead to 10% points and RBNZ cut interest rates". Roy Morgan. 3 September 2024.
  20. ↑ Desmarais, Felix (19 August 2024). "Poll: Voters warming to Luxon as PM, party votes hold firm". 1 News.
  21. ↑ "National support lowest since the election but Labour support also down as support for minor parties increases in July". Roy Morgan. 6 August 2024.
  22. ↑ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: July 2024". Taxpayers' Union.
  23. ↑ "National support increases marginally in June as support for Labour slumps back below 30%". Roy Morgan. 2 July 2024.
  24. ↑ Desmarais, Felix (25 June 2024). "Poll: Government coalition makes up lost ground as NZ First lifts". 1 News.
  25. ↑ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: June 2024". Taxpayers' Union.
  26. ↑ "Prime Minister Luxon's honeymoon is over as National support crashes to lowest since the NZ Election after sacking two ministers in late April". Roy Morgan. 28 May 2024.
  27. ↑ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll May 2024". Taxpayers' Union.
  28. ↑ Edwards, Bryce (1 May 2024). "Political Roundup: Discontent and gloom dominate NZ's political mood". NZ Herald.
  29. ↑ Desmarais, Felix (29 April 2024). "Poll: Labour could return to power if election held today". 1 News.
  30. ↑ "National/ ACT/ NZ First (53%) lead over Labour/ Greens/ Maori (43%) – cut to 10% points in April". Roy Morgan. 30 April 2024.
  31. ↑ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: April 2024". Taxpayers' Union.
  32. ↑ "National/ ACT/ NZ First (55%) increase lead over Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 41% – now at 14% points". Roy Morgan. 8 March 2024.
  33. ↑ Coughlan, Thomas (16 February 2024). "National extends lead in latest Talbot-Mills poll, Chris Hipkins falls". New Zealand Herald.
  34. ↑ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: February 2024". Taxpayers' Union.
  35. ↑ "National/ ACT/ NZ First (51.5%) strengthen lead over Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 42%". Roy Morgan. 9 February 2024.
  36. ↑ "National/ ACT/ NZ First with majority support of 51.5% ahead of Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 42.5%". Roy Morgan. 30 January 2024.
  37. ↑ Coughlan, Thomas (12 December 2023). "Support for Christopher Luxon drops, NZ First overtakes Act in new poll". New Zealand Herald.
  38. ↑ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: November 2023". New Zealand Taxpayers' Union. 9 November 2023.
  39. ↑ "2023 General Election - Official Result". ElectionResults.govt.nz. Electoral Commission. 3 November 2023.
  40. ↑ "Will there be a vote on four-year political terms?".
  41. ↑ "Referendum on four-year political terms may come by next election – Luxon". Radio New Zealand .
This page is based on this Wikipedia article
Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply.
Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.