Next New Zealand general election

Last updated

Next New Zealand general election
Flag of New Zealand.svg
←  2023 No later than 19 December 2026
All 120 seats (plus any overhang) in the House of Representatives
61 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
LUXON, Christopher - Botany (cropped).png
Profile--chrishipkins-390x2-UNC.jpg
Marama Davidson and Chloe Swarbrick.png
Leader Christopher Luxon Chris Hipkins Marama Davidson
/ Chlöe Swarbrick
Party National Labour Green
Leader since 30 November 2021 22 January 2023 8 April 2018
/ 10 March 2024
Leader's seat Botany Remutaka List
/ Auckland Central
Last election48 seats, 38.06%34 seats, 26.91%15 seats, 11.60%
Current seats493415
Seats neededIncrease2.svg12Increase2.svg27Increase2.svg46
 
David Seymour 2023 cropped headshot.jpg
Winston Peters 2024 US Deputy Secretary visit (further crop).jpg
Debbie Ngarewa-Packer and Rawiri Waititi.jpg
Leader David Seymour Winston Peters Debbie Ngarewa-Packer
/ Rawiri Waititi
Party ACT NZ First Te Pāti Māori
Leader since4 October 201418 July 199315 April 2020
/ 28 October 2020
Leader's seat Epsom List Te Tai Hauāuru
/ Waiariki
Last election11 seats, 8.64%8 seats, 6.08%6 seats, 3.08%
Current seats1186
Seats neededIncrease2.svg50Increase2.svg53Increase2.svg55
Incumbent Prime Minister

Christopher Luxon
National



The next New Zealand general election will be held after the current 54th New Zealand Parliament is dissolved or expires. The current Parliament was elected on Saturday, 14 October 2023. The last possible date for the election to be held is Saturday, 19 December 2026.

Contents

Voters will elect 120 members to the House of Representatives under New Zealand's mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system, a proportional representation system in which 71 members are elected from single-member electorates and 49 members are elected from closed party lists.

After the previous election, the centre-right National Party, led by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, formed a coalition government with the ACT and New Zealand First parties. The main opponent to the National-ACT-NZ First government is the centre-left Labour Party, led by former Prime Minister Chris Hipkins. Other opposition parties include the left-wing Green Party and the indigenous rights-based Te Pāti Māori.

Electoral system

New Zealand uses the mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system to elect the House of Representatives. Each voter gets two votes, one for a political party (the party vote) and one for a local candidate (the electorate vote). Political parties which meet the threshold (5% of the party vote or one electorate seat) receive seats in the House in proportion to the percentage of the party vote they receive. 72 of the 120 seats are filled by the MPs elected from the electorates, with the winner in each electorate determined by the first past the post method (i.e. most votes wins). The remaining 48 seats are filled by candidates from each party's closed party list. If a party wins more electorates than seats it is entitled to under the party vote, an overhang results; in this case, the House will add extra seats to cover the overhang.

The political party or party bloc with the majority of the seats in the House forms the Government. Since the introduction of MMP in 1996, a party has only won an outright majority of seats once, when the Labour Party won 65 out of 120 seats in 2020. As a result, parties typically negotiate with other parties to form a coalition government or a minority government.

Electorate boundaries

Electorate boundaries for the next election are due to be redrawn following the 2023 census and the Electoral (Māori Electoral Option) Legislation Act, which allows Māori to switch between the General Roll and Māori Roll at any time and as often as they like excluding during certain pre-election periods. This means that unless a snap election is called before the boundary review, the next general election will be the first to use boundaries based on the 2023 census. [1] [2]

The number of South Island general electorates is fixed at 16, [3] with the number of North Island general electorates and Māori electorates increasing or decreasing in proportion. For the 2020 and 2023 elections, there were 49 North Island general electorates and seven Māori electorates.

On 25 October 2024, Statistics New Zealand announced that population changes necessitated reducing the number of North Island general electorates by one, bringing the total number of North Island general electorates to 48 and the overall number of electorates to 71 (increasing the number of list seats available by one). [4] Statistics New Zealand also announced that 17 North Island electorates, one South Island electorate (Invercargill), and one Māori electorate (Ikaroa-Rāwhiti) were below 5% tolerance, while seven North Island electorates and one South Island electorate (Selwyn) were above 5% tolerance. [5]

Election date

Unless an early election is called or the election date is set to circumvent holding a by-election, a general election is held every three years. The last election was held on Saturday, 14 October 2023. [6]

The Governor General must issue a writs for an election within seven days of the expiration or dissolution of the current Parliament. [7] Under section 17 of the Constitution Act 1986, Parliament expires three years "from the day fixed for the return of the writs issued for the last preceding general election of members of the House of Representatives, and no longer." The writs for the 2023 election were returned on 9 November 2023. As a result, the 54th Parliament will expire, if not dissolved earlier, on Monday, 9 November 2026. Consequently, the last day for issuance of writs of election is 16 November 2026. The writs must be returned within 50 days of their issuance (save for any judicial recount or death of a candidate), which will be Tuesday, 5 January 2027. [8] Because polling day must be a Saturday [8] and two weeks is generally required for the counting of special votes, the last possible date for the next general election is Saturday, 19 December 2026.

Campaign

Parties

Since the 2023 election, four parties have been deregistered: DemocracyNZ on 15 February 2024, [9] [a] Leighton Baker Party on 27 May 2024, [10] [b] New Zealand Loyal on 26 July 2024, [11] [c] and Democratic Alliance on 27 November 2024. [12]

PartyLeader(s)FoundedIdeology2023 election resultCurrent seatsStatus
 % party voteseats
National Christopher Luxon 1936 Conservatism
Liberalism 		38.08%
48 / 123
49 / 123
 Government
Labour Chris Hipkins 1916 Social democracy 26.92%
34 / 123
34 / 123
Opposition
Green Marama Davidson
Chlöe Swarbrick 		1990 Green politics
Social democracy 		11.61%
15 / 123
15 / 123
Opposition
ACT David Seymour 1994 Classical liberalism
Right-libertarianism 		8.64%
11 / 123
11 / 123
 Government
NZ First Winston Peters 1993 Nationalism
Social conservatism 		6.09%
8 / 123
8 / 123
 Government
Te Pāti Māori Debbie Ngarewa-Packer
Rawiri Waititi 		2004 Māori rights
Tino rangatiratanga 		3.08%
6 / 123
6 / 123
Opposition
Opportunities 2016 Radical centrism 2.22%
0 / 123
0 / 123
Extra-parliamentary
NewZeal Alfred Ngaro 2020 Social conservatism 0.56%
0 / 123
0 / 123
Extra-parliamentary
Legalise Cannabis Maki Herbert
Michael Appleby 		1996 Cannabis legalisation 0.45%
0 / 123
0 / 123
Extra-parliamentary
Freedoms NZ Brian Tamaki
Sue Grey 		2022 Right-wing populism 0.33%
0 / 123
0 / 123
Extra-parliamentary
Animal Justice Anna Rippon
Robert McNeil		2023 Animal rights 0.17%
0 / 123
0 / 123
Extra-parliamentary
New Conservatives Helen Houghton2011 Conservatism
Traditionalism 		0.15%
0 / 123
0 / 123
Extra-parliamentary
Women's Rights Jill Ovens
Chimene Del La Veras		2023 Trans-exclusionary radical feminism 0.08%
0 / 123
0 / 123
Extra-parliamentary
New Nation Michael Jacomb2022 Social conservatism 0.05%
0 / 123
0 / 123
Extra-parliamentary

Opinion polling

Local regression graph of opinion polls conducted Opinion polling for the 2026 New Zealand election.svg
Local regression graph of opinion polls conducted

Seat projections

The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party (ACT retains Epsom and Tāmaki, Greens retain Auckland Central, Rongotai and Wellington Central, Te Pāti Māori retains all six of their Māori electorates, etc). Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.

When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future. [13]

SourceSeats in parliament [i] Likely government formation
NAT LAB GRN ACT NZF TPM Total
Taxpayers' Union–Curia [14]
9–13 Jan 2025 poll		38391214107120National–ACT–NZ First (62)
Roy Morgan [15]
25 Nov – 15 Dec 2024 poll		3932171697120National–ACT–NZ First (64)
1 News–Verian [16]
30 Nov – 4 Dec 2024 poll		4636121079120National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia [17]
1–3 Dec 2024 poll		4434111777120National–ACT (61)
Labour–Talbot Mills [18]
22–28 Nov 2024 poll		3940121289120Labour–Greens–Māori (61)
The Post–Freshwater Strategy [19]
26–27 Nov 2024 poll		4239161086*121Labour–Greens–Māori (61)
Roy Morgan [20]
28 Oct – 24 Nov 2024 poll		37361711811120Labour–Greens–Māori (64)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia [21]
6–10 Nov 2024 poll		4839111186***123National–ACT–NZ First (67)
Talbot Mills [22]
1–10 Nov 2024 poll		4241121296**122National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Roy Morgan [23]
23 Sep – 20 Oct 2024 poll		3937181196120Labour–Greens–Māori (61)
1 News–Verian [24]
5–9 Oct 2024 poll		4737151066*121National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia [25]
3–7 Oct 2024 poll		4438131296**122National–ACT–NZ First (65)
Roy Morgan [26]
26 Aug – 22 Sep 2024 poll		4729171396*121National–ACT–NZ First (69)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia [27]
8–10 Sep 2024 poll		4833141186120National–ACT–NZ First (67)
Talbot Mills [28]
1–10 Sep 2024 poll		4639121086*121National–ACT–NZ First (64)
Roy Morgan [29]
29 Jul – 25 Aug 2024 poll		4533161296*121National–ACT–NZ First (66)
1 News–Verian [30]
10–14 Aug 2024 poll		493814876**122National–ACT–NZ First (64)
Roy Morgan [31]
24 Jun – 21 Jul 2024 poll		4131181488120National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia [32]
4–8 Jul 2024 poll		4733161196**122National–ACT–NZ First (67)
Roy Morgan [33]
27 May – 23 Jun 2024 poll		4435181176*121National–ACT–NZ First (62)
1 News–Verian [34]
15–19 Jun 2024 poll		473616986**122National–ACT–NZ First (64)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia [35]
4–6 Jun 2024 poll		4436161276*121National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Roy Morgan [36]
22 Apr – 19 May 2024 poll		4238171276**122 Hung parliament
Taxpayers' Union–Curia [37]
5–7 May 2024 poll		4737131276**122National–ACT–NZ First (66)
Talbot Mills [38]
30 Apr 2024 poll		424115986*121Labour–Greens–Māori (62)
1 News–Verian [39]
20–24 Apr 2024 poll		484018906*121Labour–Greens–Māori (64)
Roy Morgan [40]
25 Mar – 21 Apr 2024 poll		4531161477120National–ACT–NZ First (66)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia [41]
2–4 Apr 2024 poll		473218986120National–ACT–NZ First (64)
Roy Morgan [42]
29 Jan – 25 Feb 2024 poll		4527191595120National–ACT–NZ First (69)
Talbot Mills [43]
1–10 Feb 2024 poll		473515986120National–ACT–NZ First (64)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia [44]
1–7 Feb 2024 poll		4934111766***123National–ACT (66)
Roy Morgan [45]
8–28 Jan 2024 poll		4928201076120National–ACT–NZ First (66)
Roy Morgan [46]
Dec 2023 poll		4628201288**122National–ACT–NZ First (66)
Curia [47]
3–5 Dec 2023 poll		4636148106120National–NZ First–ACT (64)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia [48]
1–6 Nov 2023 poll		4635171086**122National–ACT–NZ First (64)
2023 election result [49]
14 Oct 2023		4834151186**122National–ACT–NZ First (67)
* indicates an overhang seat
  1. ↑ Forecasted seats are calculated using the Electoral Commission's MMP seat allocation calculator, based on polling results.

Potential four-year-term referendum

A potential four-year-term referendum might be held during the election. [50] [51]

Notes

  1. ↑ Got 0.24% of the party vote in 2023 election
  2. ↑ Got 0.07% of the party vote in 2023 election
  3. ↑ Got 1.21% of the party vote in 2023 election

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References

  1. ↑ "How are electoral boundaries decided?". Electoral Commission. Retrieved 7 February 2024.
  2. ↑ "New Zealand Election Results". Ministry of Justice. Retrieved 7 February 2024.
  3. ↑ Electoral Act 1993, section 35(3)(a).
  4. ↑ "General electorates down by one, number of Māori electorates stays at seven". Stats NZ. 23 October 2024.
  5. ↑ "Number of electorates and electoral populations: 2023 Census | Stats NZ". www.stats.govt.nz. Retrieved 9 November 2024.
  6. ↑ "New Zealand Election Results". Electoral Commission. Retrieved 7 February 2024.
  7. ↑ "Electoral Act 1993, Sec. 125". Legislation.co.nz. Retrieved 7 February 2024.
  8. 1 2 "Electoral Act 1993, Sec. 139". Legislation.co.nz. Retrieved 7 February 2024.
  9. ↑ "DemocracyNZ no longer registered". Electoral Commission. 16 February 2024.
  10. ↑ "Leighton Baker Party no longer registered". Electoral Commission. 27 May 2024.
  11. ↑ "New Zealand Loyal no longer registered". New Zealand Electoral Commission. 29 July 2024.
  12. ↑ "Democratic Alliance no longer registered". New Zealand Electoral Commission. 28 November 2024.
  13. ↑ Schwartz, Dominique (20 September 2014). "John Key's National Party takes out New Zealand election". ABC News. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
  14. ↑ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: January 2025". Taxpayers' Union. 17 January 2025.
  15. ↑ "Support for National-led Government increases in December with National, ACT and NZ First all up". Roy Morgan. 21 January 2025.
  16. ↑ Day, Tom (9 December 2024). "Poll: Record high for Te Pāti Māori, coalition still in driving seat". 1 News.
  17. ↑ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: December 2024". Taxpayers' Union.
  18. ↑ Witton, Bridie (1 December 2024). "Labour pulls ahead of National in internal polling, as Hipkins plans tax pitch". Stuff.
  19. ↑ Vance, Andrea (2 December 2024). "New poll delivers hung Parliament, bad news for Christopher Luxon as preferred PM". Stuff.
  20. ↑ "National support down again in November as Government seeks to redefine the Treaty of Waitangi". Roy Morgan. 3 December 2024.
  21. ↑ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: November 2024". Taxpayers' Union.
  22. ↑ Coughlan, Thomas (22 November 2024). "Hīkoi's influence will be felt for years, but Treaty bill still popular - Thomas Couglan". NZ Herald.
  23. ↑ "National support down significantly in October after the sinking of HMNZS Manawanui in Samoa". Roy Morgan. 6 November 2024.
  24. ↑ Desmarais, Felix (14 October 2024). "Poll: Coalition remain in front, but Labour gain seats". 1 News.
  25. ↑ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: October 2024". Taxpayers' Union.
  26. ↑ "National support up in September as National-led Government increases lead to 14% points after RBNZ cut interest ratess". Roy Morgan. 8 October 2024.
  27. ↑ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: September 2024". Taxpayers' Union.
  28. ↑ Ensor, Jamie (19 September 2024). "New poll results show closer fight between Chris Hipkins, Christopher Luxon for preferred Prime Minister". NZ Herald.
  29. ↑ "National support up in August as National-led Government increases lead to 10% points and RBNZ cut interest rates". Roy Morgan. 3 September 2024.
  30. ↑ Desmarais, Felix (19 August 2024). "Poll: Voters warming to Luxon as PM, party votes hold firm". 1 News.
  31. ↑ "National support lowest since the election but Labour support also down as support for minor parties increases in July". Roy Morgan. 6 August 2024.
  32. ↑ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: July 2024". Taxpayers' Union.
  33. ↑ "National support increases marginally in June as support for Labour slumps back below 30%". Roy Morgan. 2 July 2024.
  34. ↑ Desmarais, Felix (25 June 2024). "Poll: Government coalition makes up lost ground as NZ First lifts". 1 News.
  35. ↑ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: June 2024". Taxpayers' Union.
  36. ↑ "Prime Minister Luxon's honeymoon is over as National support crashes to lowest since the NZ Election after sacking two ministers in late April". Roy Morgan. 28 May 2024.
  37. ↑ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll May 2024". Taxpayers' Union.
  38. ↑ Edwards, Bryce (1 May 2024). "Political Roundup: Discontent and gloom dominate NZ's political mood". NZ Herald.
  39. ↑ Desmarais, Felix (29 April 2024). "Poll: Labour could return to power if election held today". 1 News.
  40. ↑ "National/ ACT/ NZ First (53%) lead over Labour/ Greens/ Maori (43%) – cut to 10% points in April". Roy Morgan. 30 April 2024.
  41. ↑ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: April 2024". Taxpayers' Union.
  42. ↑ "National/ ACT/ NZ First (55%) increase lead over Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 41% – now at 14% points". Roy Morgan. 8 March 2024.
  43. ↑ Coughlan, Thomas (16 February 2024). "National extends lead in latest Talbot-Mills poll, Chris Hipkins falls". New Zealand Herald.
  44. ↑ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: February 2024". Taxpayers' Union.
  45. ↑ "National/ ACT/ NZ First (51.5%) strengthen lead over Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 42%". Roy Morgan. 9 February 2024.
  46. ↑ "National/ ACT/ NZ First with majority support of 51.5% ahead of Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 42.5%". Roy Morgan. 30 January 2024.
  47. ↑ Coughlan, Thomas (12 December 2023). "Support for Christopher Luxon drops, NZ First overtakes Act in new poll". New Zealand Herald.
  48. ↑ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: November 2023". New Zealand Taxpayers' Union. 9 November 2023.
  49. ↑ "2023 General Election - Official Result". ElectionResults.govt.nz. Electoral Commission. 3 November 2023.
  50. ↑ "Will there be a vote on four-year political terms?".
  51. ↑ "Referendum on four-year political terms may come by next election – Luxon". Radio New Zealand .
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