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The next New Zealand general election will be held after the current 54th New Zealand Parliament is dissolved or expires. The current Parliament was elected on Saturday, 14 October 2023. The last possible date for the election to be held is Saturday, 19 December 2026.
Voters will elect 120 members to the House of Representatives under New Zealand's mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system, a proportional representation system in which 72 members are elected from single-member electorates and 48 members are elected from closed party lists.
After the previous election, the centre-right National Party, led by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, formed a coalition government with the ACT and New Zealand First parties. The main opponent to the National-ACT-NZ First government is the centre-left Labour Party, led by former Prime Minister Chris Hipkins. Other opposition parties include the left-wing Green Party and the indigenous rights-based Te Pāti Māori.
New Zealand uses the mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system to elect the House of Representatives. Each voter gets two votes, one for a political party (the party vote) and one for a local candidate (the electorate vote). Political parties which meet the threshold (5% of the party vote or one electorate seat) receive seats in the House in proportion to the percentage of the party vote they receive. 72 of the 120 seats are filled by the MPs elected from the electorates, with the winner in each electorate determined by the first past the post method (i.e. most votes wins). The remaining 48 seats are filled by candidates from each party's closed party list. If a party wins more electorates than seats it is entitled to under the party vote, an overhang results; in this case, the House will add extra seats to cover the overhang.
The political party or party bloc with the majority of the seats in the House forms the Government. Since the introduction of MMP in 1996, a party has only won an outright majority of seats once, when the Labour Party won 65 out of 120 seats in 2020. As a result, parties typically negotiate with other parties to form a coalition government or a minority government.
Electorate boundaries for the next election are due to be redrawn following the 2023 census and the Electoral (Māori Electoral Option) Legislation Act, which allows Māori to switch between the General Roll and Māori Roll at any time and as often as they like excluding during certain pre-election periods. This means that unless a snap election is called before the boundary review, the next general election will be the first to use boundaries based on the 2023 census. [1] [2]
The number of South Island general electorates is fixed at 16, [3] with the number of North Island general electorates and Māori electorates increasing or decreasing in proportion. For the 2020 and 2023 elections, there were 49 North Island general electorates and seven Māori electorates.
Unless an early election is called or the election date is set to circumvent holding a by-election, a general election is held every three years. The last election was held on Saturday, 14 October 2023. [4]
The Governor General must issue a writs for an election within seven days of the expiration or dissolution of the current Parliament. [5] Under section 17 of the Constitution Act 1986, Parliament expires three years "from the day fixed for the return of the writs issued for the last preceding general election of members of the House of Representatives, and no longer." The writs for the 2023 election were returned on 9 November 2023. As a result, the 54th Parliament will expire, if not dissolved earlier, on Monday, 9 November 2026. Consequently, the last day for issuance of writs of election is 16 November 2026. The writs must be returned within 50 days of their issuance (save for any judicial recount or death of a candidate), which will be Tuesday, 5 January 2027. [6] Because polling day must be a Saturday [6] and two weeks is generally required for the counting of special votes, the last possible date for the next general election is Saturday, 19 December 2026.
Since the 2023 election, three parties have been deregistered: DemocracyNZ on 15 February 2024, [7] Leighton Baker Party on 27 May 2024, [8] and New Zealand Loyal on 26 July 2024. [9]
The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party (ACT retains Epsom and Tāmaki, Greens retain Auckland Central, Rongotai and Wellington Central, Te Pāti Māori retains all six of their Māori electorates, etc). Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.
When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future. [10]
Source | Seats in parliament [lower-roman 1] | Likely government formation(s) | ||||||
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NAT | LAB | GRN | ACT | NZF | TPM | Total | ||
Taxpayers' Union–Curia [11] 4–8 Jul 2024 poll | 47 | 33 | 16 | 11 | 9 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
Roy Morgan [12] 27 May – 23 Jun 2024 poll | 44 | 35 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
1 News–Verian [13] 15–19 Jun 2024 poll | 47 | 36 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
Talbot Mills [14] 30 Apr 2024 poll | 42 | 41 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
2023 election result [15] 14 Oct 2023 | 48 | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
Mixed-member proportional representation is a mixed electoral system which combines local majoritarian elections with a compensatory tier of party list votes, which are used to allocate additional members in a way that aims to produce proportional representation overall. In most MMP systems, voters get two votes: one to decide the representative for their single-seat constituency, and one for a political party. Some countries use single vote variants of MMP, although this article focuses primarily on dual vote versions of MMP.
Electoral reform in New Zealand has been a political issue in the past as major changes have been made to both parliamentary and local government electoral systems.
The House of Representatives is the sole chamber of the New Zealand Parliament. The House passes laws, provides ministers to form the Cabinet, and supervises the work of government. It is also responsible for adopting the state's budgets and approving the state's accounts.
New Zealand is a representative democracy in which members of the unicameral New Zealand Parliament gain their seats through elections. General elections are usually held every three years; they may be held at an earlier date at the discretion of the prime minister, but that usually only happens in the event of a vote of no confidence or other exceptional circumstances. A by-election is held to fill an electorate vacancy arising during a parliamentary term. The most recent general election took place on 14 October 2023.
The 1996 New Zealand general election was held on 12 October 1996 to determine the composition of the 45th New Zealand Parliament. It was notable for being the first election to be held under the new mixed-member proportional (MMP) electoral system, and produced a parliament considerably more diverse than previous elections. Under the new MMP system, 65 members were elected in single-member districts by first-past-the-post voting, while a further 55 "top-up" members were allocated from closed lists to achieve a proportional distribution based on each party's share of the nationwide party vote.
An electorate or electoral district is a geographic constituency used for electing a member (MP) to the New Zealand Parliament. The size of electorates is determined such that all electorates have approximately the same population.
The New Zealand electoral system has been mixed-member proportional (MMP) since the 1996 election. MMP was introduced following a referendum in 1993. It replaced the first-past-the-post (FPP) system New Zealand had previously used for most of its history. Under MMP, New Zealanders have two secret ballot votes to elect members of Parliament (MPs). The first vote is for a candidate from an electorate, a geographic electoral district. The second is the party vote for the political party the voter wants to form the government.
Voting in New Zealand was introduced after colonisation by British settlers. The first New Zealand Constitution Act was passed in 1852, and the first parliamentary elections were held the following year.
The 49th New Zealand Parliament was elected at the 2008 election. It comprised 122 members, including an overhang of two seats caused by the Māori Party having won two more electorate seats than its share of the party vote would otherwise have given it. The Parliament served from December 2008 until the November 2011 election.
The 2011 New Zealand general election took place on Saturday 26 November 2011 to determine the membership of the 50th New Zealand Parliament.
The 2011 New Zealand voting system referendum was a referendum on whether to keep the existing mixed member proportional (MMP) voting system, or to change to another voting system, for electing Members of Parliament to New Zealand's House of Representatives. It was held on 26 November 2011 in conjunction with the 2011 general election.
The 2014 New Zealand general election took place on Saturday 20 September 2014 to determine the membership of the 51st New Zealand Parliament.
The 50th New Zealand Parliament was elected at the 2011 general election. It had 121 members, and was in place from December 2011 until September 2014, followed by the 2014 general election. The first sitting of the 50th Parliament was held on 20 December 2011, where members were sworn in and Lockwood Smith was elected Speaker of the House. This was followed by the speech from the throne on 21 December. John Key continued to lead the Fifth National Government. Following the resignation of Smith, David Carter was elected Speaker.
The 51st New Zealand Parliament was elected at the 2014 general election. This Parliament consists of 121 members and was in place from September 2014 until August 2017, followed by the 2017 New Zealand general election. Following the final vote count John Key was able to continue to lead the Fifth National Government.
The 2020 New Zealand general election was held on Saturday 17 October 2020 to determine the composition of the 53rd New Zealand Parliament. Voters elected 120 members to the House of Representatives, 72 from single-member electorates and 48 from closed party lists. Two referendums, one on the personal use of cannabis and one on euthanasia, were also held on the same day. Official results of the election and referendums were released on 6 November.
The 2023 New Zealand general election was held on 14 October 2023 to determine the composition of the 54th Parliament of New Zealand. Voters elected 122 members to the unicameral New Zealand House of Representatives under the mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system, with 71 members elected from single-member electorates and the remaining members elected from closed party lists. Of the 72 electorates, only 71 seats were filled, with the remaining electorate MP determined in the 2023 Port Waikato by-election, due to the death of one of the general election candidates. Two overhang seats were added due to Te Pāti Māori winning six electorate seats when the party vote only entitled them to four seats, with an additional overhang seat added after the by-election making for 123 members of parliament.
The 53rd New Zealand Parliament was a meeting of the legislature in New Zealand. It opened on 25 November 2020 following the 17 October 2020 general election, and dissolved on 8 September 2023 to trigger the next election. It consisted of 120 members of Parliament (MPs) with five parties represented: the Labour and Green parties, in government, and the National, Māori and ACT parties, in opposition. The Sixth Labour Government held a majority in this Parliament. Jacinda Ardern continued as prime minister until her resignation on 25 January 2023; she was succeeded by Chris Hipkins.
Several polling firms have conducted opinion polls during the term of the 54th New Zealand Parliament (2023–present) for the next New Zealand general election. The regular polls are the quarterly polls produced by Television New Zealand conducted by Verian and Discovery New Zealand (Newshub) conducted by Reid Research, along with monthly polls by Roy Morgan, and by Curia. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.
The 54th New Zealand Parliament is the current meeting of the legislature in New Zealand. It opened on 5 December 2023 following the 14 October 2023 general election, and will expire on or before 16 November 2026 to trigger the next election.