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The next New Zealand general election will be held after the current 54th New Zealand Parliament is dissolved or expires. The current Parliament was elected on Saturday, 14 October 2023. The last possible date for the election to be held is Saturday, 19 December 2026.
Voters will elect 120 members to the House of Representatives under New Zealand's mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system, a proportional representation system in which 72 members are elected from single-member electorates and 48 members are elected from closed party lists.
After the previous election, the centre-right National Party, led by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, formed a coalition government with the ACT and New Zealand First parties. The main opponent to the National-ACT-NZ First government is the centre-left Labour Party, led by former Prime Minister Chris Hipkins. Other opposition parties include the left-wing Green Party and the indigenous rights-based Te Pāti Māori.
New Zealand uses the mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system to elect the House of Representatives. Each voter gets two votes, one for a political party (the party vote) and one for a local candidate (the electorate vote). Political parties which meet the threshold (5% of the party vote or one electorate seat) receive seats in the House in proportion to the percentage of the party vote they receive. 72 of the 120 seats are filled by the MPs elected from the electorates, with the winner in each electorate determined by the first past the post method (i.e. most votes wins). The remaining 48 seats are filled by candidates from each party's closed party list. If a party wins more electorates than seats it is entitled to under the party vote, an overhang results; in this case, the House will add extra seats to cover the overhang.
The political party or party bloc with the majority of the seats in the House forms the Government. Since the introduction of MMP in 1996, a party has only won an outright majority of seats once, when the Labour Party won 65 out of 120 seats in 2020. As a result, parties typically negotiate with other parties to form a coalition government or a minority government.
Electorate boundaries for the next election are due to be redrawn following the 2023 census and the Electoral (Māori Electoral Option) Legislation Act, which allows Māori to switch between the General Roll and Māori Roll at any time and as often as they like excluding during certain pre-election periods. This means that unless a snap election is called before the boundary review, the next general election will be the first to use boundaries based on the 2023 census. [1] [2]
The number of South Island general electorates is fixed at 16, [3] with the number of North Island general electorates and Māori electorates increasing or decreasing in proportion. For the 2020 and 2023 elections, there were 49 North Island general electorates and seven Māori electorates.
Unless an early election is called or the election date is set to circumvent holding a by-election, a general election is held every three years. The last election was held on Saturday, 14 October 2023. [4]
The Governor General must issue a writs for an election within seven days of the expiration or dissolution of the current Parliament. [5] Under section 17 of the Constitution Act 1986, Parliament expires three years "from the day fixed for the return of the writs issued for the last preceding general election of members of the House of Representatives, and no longer." The writs for the 2023 election were returned on 9 November 2023. As a result, the 54th Parliament will expire, if not dissolved earlier, on Monday, 9 November 2026. Consequently, the last day for issuance of writs of election is 16 November 2026. The writs must be returned within 50 days of their issuance (save for any judicial recount or death of a candidate), which will be Tuesday, 5 January 2027. [6] Because polling day must be a Saturday [6] and two weeks is generally required for the counting of special votes, the last possible date for the next general election is Saturday, 19 December 2026.
Since the 2023 election, three parties have been deregistered: DemocracyNZ on 15 February 2024, [7] Leighton Baker Party on 27 May 2024, [8] and New Zealand Loyal on 26 July 2024. [9]
The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party (ACT retains Epsom and Tāmaki, Greens retain Auckland Central, Rongotai and Wellington Central, Te Pāti Māori retains all six of their Māori electorates, etc). Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.
When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future. [10]
Source | Seats in parliament [lower-roman 1] | Likely government formation(s) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NAT | LAB | GRN | ACT | NZF | TPM | Total | ||
Taxpayers' Union–Curia [11] 8–10 Sep 2024 poll | 48 | 33 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
Talbot Mills [12] 1–10 Sep 2024 poll | 46 | 39 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
Roy Morgan [13] 29 Jul – 25 Aug 2024 poll | 45 | 33 | 16 | 12 | 9 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
1 News–Verian [14] 10–14 Aug 2024 poll | 49 | 38 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
Roy Morgan [15] 24 Jun – 21 Jul 2024 poll | 41 | 31 | 18 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
Taxpayers' Union–Curia [16] 4–8 Jul 2024 poll | 47 | 33 | 16 | 11 | 9 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
Roy Morgan [17] 27 May – 23 Jun 2024 poll | 44 | 35 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (62) |
1 News–Verian [18] 15–19 Jun 2024 poll | 47 | 36 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
Taxpayers' Union–Curia [19] 4–6 Jun 2024 poll | 44 | 36 | 16 | 12 | 7 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (63) |
Roy Morgan [20] 22 Apr – 19 May 2024 poll | 42 | 38 | 17 | 12 | 7 | 6** | 122 | Hung parliament |
Taxpayers' Union–Curia [21] 5–7 May 2024 poll | 47 | 37 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
Talbot Mills [22] 30 Apr 2024 poll | 42 | 41 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (62) |
1 News–Verian [23] 20–24 Apr 2024 poll | 48 | 40 | 18 | 9 | 0 | 6* | 121 | Labour–Greens–Māori (64) |
Roy Morgan [24] 25 Mar – 21 Apr 2024 poll | 45 | 31 | 16 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
Taxpayers' Union–Curia [25] 2–4 Apr 2024 poll | 47 | 32 | 18 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
Roy Morgan [26] 29 Jan – 25 Feb 2024 poll | 45 | 27 | 19 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (69) |
Talbot Mills [27] 1–10 Feb 2024 poll | 47 | 35 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
Taxpayers' Union–Curia [28] 1–7 Feb 2024 poll | 49 | 34 | 11 | 17 | 6 | 6*** | 123 | National–ACT (66) |
Roy Morgan [29] 8–28 Jan 2024 poll | 49 | 28 | 20 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
Roy Morgan [30] Dec 2023 poll | 46 | 28 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 8** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (66) |
Curia [31] 3–5 Dec 2023 poll | 46 | 36 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 120 | National–NZ First–ACT (64) |
Taxpayers' Union–Curia [32] 1–6 Nov 2023 poll | 46 | 35 | 17 | 10 | 8 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
2023 election result [33] 14 Oct 2023 | 48 | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
A Potential four year term referendum might be held during the election. [34] [35]
The New Zealand National Party, shortened to National or the Nats, is a centre-right New Zealand political party that is the current ruling party. It is one of two major parties that dominate contemporary New Zealand politics, alongside its traditional rival, the Labour Party.
ACT New Zealand, also known as the ACT Party or simply ACT, is a right-wing, classical liberal, right-libertarian, and conservative political party in New Zealand. It is currently led by David Seymour, and is in coalition with the National and New Zealand First parties, as part of the Sixth National government.
Electoral reform in New Zealand has been a political issue in the past as major changes have been made to both parliamentary and local government electoral systems.
New Zealand is a representative democracy in which members of the unicameral New Zealand Parliament gain their seats through elections. General elections are usually held every three years; they may be held at an earlier date at the discretion of the prime minister, but that usually only happens in the event of a vote of no confidence or other exceptional circumstances. A by-election is held to fill an electorate vacancy arising during a parliamentary term. Election day is always a Saturday, but advance voting is allowed in the lead-up to it. The most recent general election took place on 14 October 2023.
The 1996 New Zealand general election was held on 12 October 1996 to determine the composition of the 45th New Zealand Parliament. It was notable for being the first election to be held under the new mixed-member proportional (MMP) electoral system, and produced a parliament considerably more diverse than previous elections. Under the new MMP system, 65 members were elected in single-member districts by first-past-the-post voting, while a further 55 "top-up" members were allocated from closed lists to achieve a proportional distribution based on each party's share of the nationwide party vote.
The New Zealand parliamentary electoral system has been based on the principle of mixed-member proportional (MMP) since the 1996 election. MMP was introduced following a referendum in 1993. It replaced the first-past-the-post (FPP) system New Zealand had previously used for most of its history. Under the MMP system, New Zealanders have two secret ballot votes to elect members of Parliament (MPs). The first vote is for a candidate from an electorate, a geographic electoral district. The second is the party vote for the political party the voter wants to form the government.
Voting in New Zealand was introduced after colonisation by Britain. The first New Zealand Constitution Act was passed in 1852, and the first parliamentary elections were held the following year.
The 2011 New Zealand general election took place on Saturday 26 November 2011 to determine the membership of the 50th New Zealand Parliament.
The 2011 New Zealand voting system referendum was a referendum on whether to keep the existing mixed member proportional (MMP) voting system, or to change to another voting system, for electing Members of Parliament to New Zealand's House of Representatives. It was held on 26 November 2011 in conjunction with the 2011 general election.
The 2014 New Zealand general election took place on Saturday 20 September 2014 to determine the membership of the 51st New Zealand Parliament.
The 2017 New Zealand general election took place on Saturday 23 September 2017 to determine the membership of the 52nd New Zealand Parliament. The previous parliament was elected on 20 September 2014 and was officially dissolved on 22 August 2017. Voters elected 120 members to the House of Representatives under New Zealand's mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system, a proportional representation system in which 71 members were elected from single-member electorates and 49 members were elected from closed party lists. Around 3.57 million people were registered to vote in the election, with 2.63 million (79.8%) turning out. Advance voting proved popular, with 1.24 million votes cast before election day, more than the previous two elections combined.
Various organisations commissioned opinion polls for the 2017 New Zealand general election during the term of the 51st New Zealand Parliament (2014–2017). Roy Morgan Research polled monthly, with MediaWorks New Zealand and Television New Zealand polling less frequently. The last The New Zealand Herald was in December 2015, and Fairfax Media discontinued their poll after the 2014 election. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varied by organisation and date, but were typically 800–1000 participants with a margin of error of just over 3%.
The 2020 New Zealand general election was held on Saturday 17 October 2020 to determine the composition of the 53rd New Zealand Parliament. Voters elected 120 members to the House of Representatives, 72 from single-member electorates and 48 from closed party lists. Two referendums, one on the personal use of cannabis and one on euthanasia, were also held on the same day. Official results of the election and referendums were released on 6 November.
Several polling firms conducted opinion polls during the term of the 52nd New Zealand Parliament in the lead up to the 2020 general election, which elects the 53rd Parliament. The 52nd Parliament was elected on 23 September 2017 and dissolved on 6 September 2020. The 2020 election was originally due to take place on Saturday 19 September 2020, but due to a second COVID-19 outbreak it was delayed until Saturday 17 October 2020.
The 2023 New Zealand general election was held on 14 October 2023 to determine the composition of the 54th Parliament of New Zealand. Voters elected 122 members to the unicameral New Zealand House of Representatives under the mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system, with 71 members elected from single-member electorates and the remaining members elected from closed party lists. Of the 72 electorates, only 71 seats were filled, with the remaining electorate MP determined in the 2023 Port Waikato by-election, due to the death of one of the general election candidates. Two overhang seats were added due to Te Pāti Māori winning six electorate seats when the party vote only entitled them to four seats, with an additional overhang seat added after the by-election making for 123 members of parliament.
The 53rd New Zealand Parliament was a meeting of the legislature in New Zealand. It opened on 25 November 2020 following the 17 October 2020 general election, and dissolved on 8 September 2023 to trigger the next election. It consisted of 120 members of Parliament (MPs) with five parties represented: the Labour and Green parties, in government, and the National, Māori and ACT parties, in opposition. The Sixth Labour Government held a majority in this Parliament. Jacinda Ardern continued as prime minister until her resignation on 25 January 2023; she was succeeded by Chris Hipkins.
Several polling firms conducted opinion polls during the term of the 53rd New Zealand Parliament (2020–2023) for the 2023 New Zealand general election. The regular polls are the quarterly polls produced by Television New Zealand conducted by Verian and Discovery New Zealand (Newshub) conducted by Reid Research, along with monthly polls by Roy Morgan, and by Curia. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.
Freedoms New Zealand, also known as Freedoms NZ: Uniting Political Parties and Freedom Movements, is a registered political alliance in New Zealand, founded on 22 August 2022 by Brian Tamaki following a series of protests. Today it is co-led by Tamaki and Sue Grey. It is an "umbrella party", consisting of an alliance between Tamaki's Freedom and Rights Coalition organisation, the registered Vision NZ and Outdoors & Freedom parties, and the unregistered Yes Aotearoa and Rock The Vote NZ parties.
Several polling firms have conducted opinion polls during the term of the 54th New Zealand Parliament (2023–present) for the next New Zealand general election. The regular polls are the quarterly polls produced by Television New Zealand conducted by Verian and Discovery New Zealand (Newshub) conducted by Reid Research, along with monthly polls by Roy Morgan, and by Curia. Curia Market Research is no longer a member of the Research Association of New Zealand, following complaints and the resignation from RANZ by its Principal, David Farrar. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.
The 54th New Zealand Parliament is the current meeting of the legislature in New Zealand. It opened on 5 December 2023 following the 14 October 2023 general election, and will expire on or before 16 November 2026 to trigger the next election.