Opinion polling for the 1999 New Zealand general election

Last updated September 06, 2024

Opinion polling was commissioned throughout the duration of the 45th New Zealand Parliament in the lead up to the 1999 election by various organisations.

Party vote

Polls are listed in the table below in chronological order. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey firms.

Graphical summary

Local regression of polls conducted

Individual polls

Poll	Date^{[nb 1]}	Labour	National	NZ First	Alliance	ACT	Green	United
Poll	Date^{[nb 1]}
1996 election result ^[1]	12 Oct 1996	28.19	33.87	13.35	10.10	6.10	–	0.88
One News Colmar Brunton^[2]	13 Feb 1997	31	45	7	7	4.3	–	0.2
One News Colmar Brunton^[2]	13 Mar 1997	32	47	4.2	7	4.4	–	–
One News Colmar Brunton^[2]	11 Apr 1997	36	41	5	8	6	–	0.1
One News Colmar Brunton^[3]	13 May 1997	42	38	3.8	6	4.7	–	0.1
TV3/CM Research^[2]	25 May 1997	45	30	6	6.7	7.1	–	–
One News Colmar Brunton^[4]	25 Jun 1997	41	39	4.4	7	4.9	–	0.1
One News Colmar Brunton^[2]	10 Jul 1997	42	39	3.8	7	4.5	–	0.2
One News Colmar Brunton^[2]	7 Aug 1997	42	39	3.7	9	4.7	–	0
One News Colmar Brunton^[2]	18 Sep 1997	45	36	1.9	7	6	–	0.6
TV3/CM Research^[2]	11 Oct 1997	49	31	4.5	8.3	5.9	–	–
New Zealand Herald-DigiPoll^[5]	13 Oct 1997	50	32	1.7	5.9	4.6	–	–
One News Colmar Brunton^[2]	16 Oct 1997	52	30	1.8	7	6	–	0.2
One News Colmar Brunton^[2]	4 Nov 1997	45	37	2.3	6	5	–	0.3
One News Colmar Brunton^[2]	13 Nov 1997	45	36	2.8	6	7	–	–
TV3/CM Research^[2]	23 Nov 1997	45	34	3.1	7.6	7	–	–
8 December 1997 – Jenny Shipley is elected Prime Minister and leader of the National Party after Jim Bolger's resignation.
One News Colmar Brunton^[6]	8–10 Dec 1997	46	40	1.1	6	5	0.6	0.1
One News Colmar Brunton^[7]	12 Feb 1998	45	42	1.3	5	5	0.4	–
TV3-CM Research^[7]	15 Feb 1998	44	38	1.8	7.9	4.4	0.5	–
One News Colmar Brunton^[8]	25 Mar 1998	39	42	1.6	5	8	0.6	0.3
TV3/CM Research^[2]	21 Apr 1998	38	42	2.2	6.3	6.1	0.4	–
One News Colmar Brunton^[2]	23 Apr 1998	38	46	2.5	6	5	0.4	0.3
2 May 1998 – National narrowly wins the Taranaki-King Country by-election after Bolger's resignation.
New Zealand Herald-DigiPoll^[9]	11 May 1998	34.7	38.3	1.7	8.5	11.8	1.4	–
TV3/CM Research^[2]	14 May 1998	37	41	2.1	8	9	0.2	0.1
One News Colmar Brunton^[2]	18 Jun 1998	37	37	2.1	9	11	0.5	0.1
One News Colmar Brunton^[2]	9 Jul 1998	42	36	1.9	9	8	0.2	–
TV3-CM Research^[10]	10 Jul 1998	42	36	2.3	9.9	5.1	1	–
One News Colmar Brunton^[11]	6 Aug 1998	40	39	2.6	9	6	0.7	–
New Zealand Herald-DigiPoll^[11]	11 Aug 1998	46.1	32.6	2.2	9.7	5.9	–	–
One News Colmar Brunton^[2]	13 Aug 1998	41	39	2.9	9	5	–	–
14 August 1998 – Winston Peters is sacked from cabinet by Shipley ending the coalition between National and New Zealand First.
TV3/CM Research^[2]	13 Sep 1998	42	35	4.4	9.1	4.7	0.4	–
One News Colmar Brunton^[12]	22 Sep 1998	42	41	1.8	7	6	0.3	–
One News Colmar Brunton^[2]	15 Oct 1998	48	35	2	6	6	0.7	0.1
One News Colmar Brunton^[13]	16 Nov 1998	48	34	2	7	6	0.5	–
TV3/CM Research^[14]	17 Nov 1998	49	32	3	5	5	1	–
New Zealand Herald-Digipoll^[15]	7 Dec 1998	51	32	3.5	6	4.5	–	–
One News Colmar Brunton^[2]	10 Dec 1998	45	35	2.4	8	5	0.4	0.1
One News Colmar Brunton^[2]	11 Feb 1999	42	41	2.6	7	3.9	0.7	–
TV3/CM Research^[2]	14 Feb 1999	43	37	3	7	5	1	–
One News Colmar Brunton^[16]	23 Mar 1999	39	42	2.2	7	6	0.6	0.4
TV3/CM Research^[2]	18 Apr 1999	41	37	3	8	5	1	–
One News Colmar Brunton^[17]	27 Apr 1999	44	38	1.5	6	6	0.5	0.4
One News Colmar Brunton^[18]	19 May 1999	44	39	2.6	7	4.4	0.9	0.2
One News Colmar Brunton^[2]	17 Jun 1999	42	41	1.9	6	4.9	1.4	–
TV3/CM Research^[2]	20 Jun 1999	46	33	4	7	4	1.4	–
One News Colmar Brunton^[19]	13 Jul 1999	44	38	1.8	6	4.7	0.9	0.2
TV3/CM Research^[2]	25 Jul 1999	38	37	4.7	8	6	1.5	–
One News Colmar Brunton^[2]	5 August 1999	40	38	4	7	7	1.1	–
TV3/CM Research^[2]	22 August 1999	40	32	7	7	6	2.6	–
New Zealand Herald-DigiPoll^[20]	28 Aug – 3 Sep 1999	43.8	35.7	5.5	5	–	3.1	–
One News Colmar Brunton^[2]	16 Sep 1999	41	35	4.1	7	5	1.9	0.2
TV3/CM Research^[2]	19 Sep 1999	39	33	7	6	7	2.4	–
TV3/CM Research^[2]	10 Oct 1999	40	36	4	8	7	2	–
TV3/CM Research^[2]	20 Oct 1999	37	33	6	7	9	2.5	–
One News Colmar Brunton^[21]	18 Oct 1999	39	37	6	4.5	7	1	0.5
New Zealand Herald-Digipoll^[22]	5 Nov 1999	35.2	34	1	8.7	9.2	2.9	0.3
TV3/CM Research^[2]	7 Nov 1999	41	28	6	7	10	2.9	–
One News Colmar Brunton^[2]	11 Nov 1999	34	33	6	9	11	2.4	0.1
TV3/CM Research^[2]	17 Nov 1999	37	30	6	9	9	2.8	–
New Zealand Herald-Digipoll^[23]	26 Nov 1999	39.8	29.9	3.6	7.7	8.5	5.4	–
One News Colmar Brunton^[24]	26 Nov 1999	39	31	3.2	8	7	6	0.7
TV3/CM Research^[24]	26 Nov 1999	34	29	5.5	9	11	6	–
1999 election result ^[25]	27 Nov 1999	38.74	30.50	4.26	7.74	7.04	5.16	0.54

Preferred prime minister

Individual polls

Poll	Date^{[nb 1]}	Helen Clark	Jim Bolger	Jenny Shipley	Winston Peters	Jim Anderton	Richard Prebble	Mike Moore
Poll	Date^{[nb 1]}
One News Colmar Brunton^[3]	13 May 1997	21	20	6	4	6	–	5
One News Colmar Brunton^[4]	25 Jun 1997	26	21	4	4	5	–	4
One News Colmar Brunton^[26]	13 Aug 1997	25	20	9	3	7	–	–
8 December 1997 – Jenny Shipley is elected Prime Minister and leader of the National Party after Jim Bolger's resignation.
One News Colmar Brunton^[6]	8 – 10 Dec 1997	28	5	27	2	–	–	–
One News Colmar Brunton^[7]	12 Feb 1998	26	3	27	1	5	–	3
TV3-CM Research^[7]	15 Feb 1998	28	4	20	2	5	–	5
One News Colmar Brunton^[8]	25 Mar 1998	23	3	31	3	4	–	3
TV3-CM Research^[10]	10 Jul 1998	21	–	22	–	–	–	–
One News Colmar Brunton^[11]	11 Aug 1998	22	–	28	2	9	2	–
14 August 1998 – Winston Peters is sacked from cabinet by Shipley ending the coalition between National and New Zealand First.
One News Colmar Brunton^[12]	22 Sep 1998	23	–	28	3	7	1	–
TV3/CM Research^[14]	17 Nov 1998	24	–	15	4	6	–	–
One News Colmar Brunton^[16]	23 Mar 1999	21	–	29	–	–	–	–
One News Colmar Brunton^[17]	27 Apr 1999	21	–	27	3	5	1	–
One News Colmar Brunton^[18]	19 May 1999	22	–	27	4	6	1	–
New Zealand Herald-DigiPoll^[27]	11 Aug 1999	19.5	–	17.6	2.4	6.4	–	3
New Zealand Herald-DigiPoll^[28]	8 Sep 1999	19.5	1.1	16	6.9	4.4	1.8	1.7
One News Colmar Brunton^[24]	26 Nov 1999	30	–	27	–	–	–	–
TV3/CM Research^[24]	26 Nov 1999	23	–	20	–	–	–	–

Electorate polling

Coromandel

Poll	Date	Tony Bird	Jeanette Fitzsimons	Margaret Hawkeswood	Robyn McDonald	Murray McLean
Poll	Date
Reid Research^[29]	5–8 Aug 1999	6	33	20	10	31
Sunday Star Times/UMR Insight^[30]	24 Oct 1999	–	34	15	–	37
TV1 Colmar Brunton^[31]^[32]	10 Nov 1999	8	39	13	4	36
Dominion/UMR Insight^[33]	15 Nov 1999	–	43	11	–	35
TV1 Colmar Brunton^[34]	18–21 Nov 1999	3	44	11	–	39
1999 election result	27 Nov 1999	3.56	39.98	11.37	3.61	39.25

Wellington Central

Poll	Date	Marian Hobbs	Richard Prebble
Poll	Date
TV1 Colmar Brunton^[35]	8 Nov 1999	48	47
1999 election result	27 Nov 1999	48.37	44.27

Ikaroa-Rāwhiti

Poll	Date	Derek Fox	Bill Gudgeon	Parekura Horomia	Dalvanius Prime	Des Ratima	Vicky Robin	Tauni Sinclair
Poll	Date
Marae ^[36]		31.7	10.9	34.6	3.9	4.2	2.9	3.3
Marae^[37]	21 Nov 1999	34	–	36.6	–	–	–	–
1999 election result	27 Nov 1999	37.16	5.97	40.99	—	5.27	0.77	—

Waiariki

Poll	Date	Tuariki Delamere	Mita Ririnui
Poll	Date
Marae^[37]	21 Nov 1999	27.1	30
1999 election result	27 Nov 1999	20.01	45.11

Notes

1 2 These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.

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References

↑ "Part I - Summary of Party List and Electorate Candidate Seats" (PDF). Wellington: Electoral Commission. 1997. Retrieved 2 August 2020.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 "Historical Pollling Data 1974–2023". Patrick Leyland. Retrieved 1 August 2023.
1 2 Luke, Peter (13 May 1997). "Labour tops poll as Govt rating slides". The Press .
1 2 "Coalition takes a dive". The Press . 25 June 1997.
↑ "Polls show Labour may gain enough votes for outright win". The Press . 14 October 1997.
1 2 "Little between Clark, Shipley in poll rating". The Press . 16 December 1997. p. 3.
1 2 3 4 "Shipley leads in one poll, trails in another". The Dominion . 17 February 1998. p. 2.
1 2 "Labour now trails National in latest poll". Waikato Times . 25 March 1998. p. 2.
↑ Espiner, Guyon (12 May 1998). "Fletcher sees no mandate for 'lurch to right'". The Evening Post . p. 9.
1 2 "Labour most popular party – poll". The Press . 10 July 1998. p. 9.
1 2 3 "Labour ahead of National in new polls". The Press . 11 August 1998. p. 3.
1 2 "Poll shows National's popularity on the rise". Waikato Times . 22 September 1998. p. 2.
↑ Edwards, Brent (16 November 1998). "Clark confident of Labour victory after latest poll". The Evening Post . p. 3.
1 2 "Two polls show Labour leads". Waikato Times . 17 November 1998. p. 2.
↑ "Poll shows Labour could govern alone". The Press . 8 December 1998. p. 9.
1 2 "National now ahead of Labour in polls". Waikato Times . 23 March 1999. p. 21.
1 2 "Poll shows Labour Party back in front". The Dominion . 27 April 1999. p. 2.
1 2 "Labour retains lead as National inches up poll". Waikato Times . 19 May 1999. p. 2.
↑ Llewellyn, Ian (13 July 1999). "TV1 Poll Shows A Return To Status Quo". Scoop.co.nz .
↑ Hill, Jonathan (6 September 1999). "Labour Surge, Alliance Slump in Latest Poll". Scoop.co.nz .
↑ "Nats on rise, but Prebble holds firm; Nats on rise in polls". The Evening Post . 18 October 1999. p. 1.
↑ "Latest poll points to election cliffhanger". Waikato Times . 5 November 1999. p. 2.
↑ Edwards, Brent (26 November 1999). "Polls point to National's ousting". Waikato Times . p. 2.
1 2 3 4 Main, Victoria (26 November 1999). "Polls tip Labour-led coalition". The Dominion . p. 1.
↑ "1999 GENERAL ELECTION – Summary of Overall Results". Wellington: Electoral Commission. 27 November 1999. Retrieved 15 December 2017.
↑ "Rise in support for Shipley as leader". The Press . 14 August 1997.
↑ "Clark tops Shipley in preferred PM poll". The Press . 11 August 1999. p. 7.
↑ "Peters back on track with voters". The Press . 8 September 1999. p. 10.
↑ "Poll Shows Fitzsimons Ahead In Coromandel". Scoop.co.nz. 17 August 1999.
↑ "Greens' Coromandel confidence buoyed by poll". 24 October 1999.
↑ Hill, Jonathan (10 November 1999). "Fitzsimons Edges Ahead in Latest Coromandel Poll". Scoop.co.nz.
↑ "Fitzsimons takes lead in Coromandel". Scoop.co.nz. 11 November 1999.
↑ Hill, Jonathan (15 November 1999). "Greens Look Set to go to Parliament". Scoop.co.nz.
↑ Hill, Jonathan (25 November 1999). "Greens Still Lead in Coromandel". Scoop.co.nz.
↑ Hill, Jonathan (9 November 1999). "Poll Shock For Prebble in Wellington Central". Scoop.co.nz.
↑ "Mayor in close race for seat". New Zealand Herald.
1 2 Hill, Jonathan (22 November 1999). "Poll Shows Tight Race For Maori Seats". Scoop.co.nz.

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[dates-1] 1 2 These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.

[1996result-2] "Part I - Summary of Party List and Electorate Candidate Seats" (PDF). Wellington: Electoral Commission. 1997. Retrieved 2 August 2020.

[pollednz-3] 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 "Historical Pollling Data 1974–2023". Patrick Leyland. Retrieved 1 August 2023.

[Labour_tops-4] 1 2 Luke, Peter (13 May 1997). "Labour tops poll as Govt rating slides". The Press .

[takes_a_dive-5] 1 2 "Coalition takes a dive". The Press . 25 June 1997.

[6] "Polls show Labour may gain enough votes for outright win". The Press . 14 October 1997.

[Little_between-7] 1 2 "Little between Clark, Shipley in poll rating". The Press . 16 December 1997. p. 3.

[leads_in_one-8] 1 2 3 4 "Shipley leads in one poll, trails in another". The Dominion . 17 February 1998. p. 2.

[Labour_now_trails-9] 1 2 "Labour now trails National in latest poll". Waikato Times . 25 March 1998. p. 2.

[10] Espiner, Guyon (12 May 1998). "Fletcher sees no mandate for 'lurch to right'". The Evening Post . p. 9.

[most_popular-11] 1 2 "Labour most popular party – poll". The Press . 10 July 1998. p. 9.

[Labour_ahead-12] 1 2 3 "Labour ahead of National in new polls". The Press . 11 August 1998. p. 3.

[on_the_rise-13] 1 2 "Poll shows National's popularity on the rise". Waikato Times . 22 September 1998. p. 2.

[14] Edwards, Brent (16 November 1998). "Clark confident of Labour victory after latest poll". The Evening Post . p. 3.

[Two_polls-15] 1 2 "Two polls show Labour leads". Waikato Times . 17 November 1998. p. 2.

[16] "Poll shows Labour could govern alone". The Press . 8 December 1998. p. 9.

[National_now_ahead-17] 1 2 "National now ahead of Labour in polls". Waikato Times . 23 March 1999. p. 21.

[back_in_front-18] 1 2 "Poll shows Labour Party back in front". The Dominion . 27 April 1999. p. 2.

[inches_up-19] 1 2 "Labour retains lead as National inches up poll". Waikato Times . 19 May 1999. p. 2.

[20] Llewellyn, Ian (13 July 1999). "TV1 Poll Shows A Return To Status Quo". Scoop.co.nz .

[21] Hill, Jonathan (6 September 1999). "Labour Surge, Alliance Slump in Latest Poll". Scoop.co.nz .

[22] "Nats on rise, but Prebble holds firm; Nats on rise in polls". The Evening Post . 18 October 1999. p. 1.

[cliffhanger-23] "Latest poll points to election cliffhanger". Waikato Times . 5 November 1999. p. 2.

[ousting-24] Edwards, Brent (26 November 1999). "Polls point to National's ousting". Waikato Times . p. 2.

[coalition-25] 1 2 3 4 Main, Victoria (26 November 1999). "Polls tip Labour-led coalition". The Dominion . p. 1.

[1999result-26] "1999 GENERAL ELECTION – Summary of Overall Results". Wellington: Electoral Commission. 27 November 1999. Retrieved 15 December 2017.

[27] "Rise in support for Shipley as leader". The Press . 14 August 1997.

[28] "Clark tops Shipley in preferred PM poll". The Press . 11 August 1999. p. 7.

[29] "Peters back on track with voters". The Press . 8 September 1999. p. 10.

[30] "Poll Shows Fitzsimons Ahead In Coromandel". Scoop.co.nz. 17 August 1999.

[31] "Greens' Coromandel confidence buoyed by poll". 24 October 1999.

[32] Hill, Jonathan (10 November 1999). "Fitzsimons Edges Ahead in Latest Coromandel Poll". Scoop.co.nz.

[33] "Fitzsimons takes lead in Coromandel". Scoop.co.nz. 11 November 1999.

[34] Hill, Jonathan (15 November 1999). "Greens Look Set to go to Parliament". Scoop.co.nz.

[35] Hill, Jonathan (25 November 1999). "Greens Still Lead in Coromandel". Scoop.co.nz.

[36] Hill, Jonathan (9 November 1999). "Poll Shock For Prebble in Wellington Central". Scoop.co.nz.

[37] "Mayor in close race for seat". New Zealand Herald.

[marae-38] 1 2 Hill, Jonathan (22 November 1999). "Poll Shows Tight Race For Maori Seats". Scoop.co.nz.

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Opinion polling for the 1999 New Zealand general election

Contents

Party vote

Graphical summary

Individual polls

Preferred prime minister

Individual polls

Electorate polling

Coromandel

Wellington Central

Ikaroa-Rāwhiti

Waiariki

See also

Notes

Related Research Articles

References