Opinion polling for the 2023 New Zealand general election

Last updated • 4 min readFrom Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia

Several polling firms conducted opinion polls during the term of the 53rd New Zealand Parliament (2020–2023) for the 2023 New Zealand general election. The regular polls are the quarterly polls produced by Television New Zealand ( 1 News ) conducted by Verian (formerly known as Colmar Brunton and Kantar Public) and Discovery New Zealand ( Newshub ) conducted by Reid Research, along with monthly polls by Roy Morgan, and by Curia (Taxpayers' Union). The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

Contents

The current parliament was elected on 17 October 2020. The general election took place on 14 October 2023. [1]

Party vote

Graph of opinion polls conducted (as at 10 October 2023). Smoothing is set to span 65%. Opinion polling for the 2023 New Zealand election.svg
Graph of opinion polls conducted (as at 10 October 2023). Smoothing is set to span 65%.
Opinion polls grouped by main blocs (as at 10 October 2023) Opinion polling for the 2023 New Zealand election (blocs).svg
Opinion polls grouped by main blocs (as at 10 October 2023)

Nationwide polling

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. The 'party lead' column shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. In the instance of a tie, both figures are shaded and displayed in bold. Percentages may not add to 100 percent due to polls not reporting figures for all minor parties and due to rounding. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations.

The parties shown in the table are Labour (LAB), National (NAT), Green (GRN), ACT, Māori (TPM), New Zealand First (NZF), Opportunities (TOP), New Conservative (NCP), and New Zealand Loyal (NZL). Other parties may have also registered in some polls, but are not listed in this table.

Date [lower-alpha 1] Polling organisationSample size LAB NAT GRN ACT TPM NZF TOP NCP Lead
14 Oct 2023 2023 election result N/A26.9238.0811.618.643.086.092.220.1511.16
7–10 Oct 2023 1 News–Verian 1,00128371491.762.39
5–10 Oct 2023 Newshub–Reid Research 27.534.514.98.82.76.82.27
9 Oct 2023The Port Waikato electorate vote is cancelled after ACT candidate Neil Christensen dies; a replacement by-election will be held on 25 November 2023. [2]
4 Sep – 8 Oct 2023 Roy Morgan 1,2502630.51511.537.53.5-4.5
4–8 Oct 2023 Guardian Essential 1,20030.33410.67.91.98.23.7
1–4 Oct 2023 Taxpayers' Union-Curia 1,00027.935.910.69.13.76.92.90.78
30 Sep – 3 Oct 2023 1 News–Verian 1,000263613102.261.510
2 Oct 2023 Advance voting for the 2023 general election begins.
22–28 Sep 2023 Talbot Mills 1,02727381393.16.42.311
23–26 Sep 2023 1 News–Verian 1,002263613121.961.30.610
17–23 Sep 2023 Newshub–Reid Research 26.539.114.28.82.25.21.91.112.6
16–19 Sep 2023 1 News–Verian 1,001273712122.951.40.110
9–12 Sep 2023 1 News–Verian 1,002283910102.651.40.811
6–10 Sep 2023 Guardian Essential 1,15426.934.51110.32.567.6
3–9 Sep 2023 Newshub–Reid Research 26.840.912.310.13.14.60.70.814.1
31 Aug – 6 Sep 2023 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,00026.53512.714.32.93.92.70.88.5
28–30 Aug 2023 The Post–Freshwater Strategy 1,511263612113610
24–30 Aug 2023 Talbot Mills 303612102.45.41.56
31 Jul – 27 Aug 2023 Roy Morgan 1,046243112.51845.527
25 Aug 2023 Talbot Mills [lower-alpha 2] 32341110462
12–16 Aug 2023 1 News–Verian 1,002293712132.63.70.60.38
3–8 Aug 2023 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,00027.134.912132.55.810.67.8
31 Jul – 7 Aug 2023 Talbot Mills 1,012323510113.14.41.83
2–6 Aug 2023 Guardian Essential 1,1632934.58.511.62.55.35.5
26–31 Jul 2023 Newshub–Reid Research 32.336.69.612.12.74.11.50.74.3
24 Jul 2023 Kiri Allan of the Labour Party resigns as a minister.
26 Jun – 23 Jul 2023 Roy Morgan 9372633.59146547.5
8–12 Jul 2023 1 News–Verian 1,000333510122.83.11.70.42
2–10 Jul 2023 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,00031.133.38.913.253.30.30.42.2
28 Jun – 2 Jul 2023 Talbot Mills 1,03631368124.242.95
29 May – 25 Jun 2023 Roy Morgan 95530.5309.5157330.5
21 Jun 2023 Michael Wood of the Labour Party resigns as a minister.
30 May – 6 Jun 2023 Talbot Mills 1,00136357113.652.91
31 May – 6 Jun 2023 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,00032.935.79.712.73.51.60.81.32.8
20–24 May 2023 1 News–Kantar Public 1,00235377112.431.40.62
24 Apr – 21 May 2023 Roy Morgan 9523131.51213.54.53.520.50.5
18 May 2023The 2023 Budget is delivered.
12–17 May 2023 Horizon Research 1,56334.426.59.512.34.35.32.81.47.9
5–11 May 2023 Newshub–Reid Research 35.935.38.110.83.5320.6
2–7 May 2023 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,00033.835.6712.73.72.61.71.61.8
3 May 2023 Meka Whaitiri resigns from the Labour Party and joins Te Pāti Māori.
27 Apr – 3 May 2023 Talbot Mills 1,04633369104.13.41.83
27 Mar – 23 Apr 2023 Roy Morgan 92930321212.54.54.520.52
2–5 Apr 2023 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,00036.936.56.79.52.92.60.81.70.4
30 Mar – 5 Apr 2023 Talbot Mills 36369101.93.90.8Tie
28 Mar 2023 Stuart Nash of the Labour Party is stripped of all his ministerial portfolios.
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2023 Roy Morgan 943333210.513233.511
1–9 Mar 2023 Talbot Mills 1,02137348123.22.91.53
4–8 Mar 2023 1 News–Kantar Public 1,002363411112.63.110.52
2–7 Mar 2023 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,00035.534.85.79.31.44.21.72.50.7
30 Jan – 26 Feb 2023 Roy Morgan 943333212.513.53.522.50.51
12 Feb 2023 Cyclone Gabrielle begins impacting the North Island
2–9 Feb 2023 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,00034.434.47.811.72.12.920.8Tie
26–31 Jan 2023 Talbot Mills 3336111033.42.33
9–29 Jan 2023 Roy Morgan 94830321213.54.551.50.52
25–29 Jan 2023 1 News–Kantar Public 1,00838377101.42.21.10.61
23–28 Jan 2023 Horizon Research 1,14735.527.79134.64.51.61.17.8
27 Jan 2023 2023 Auckland Anniversary Weekend floods begin
22–27 Jan 2023 Newshub–Reid Research 3836.68.110.71.82.21.51.4
25 Jan 2023 Chris Hipkins is sworn in as the 41st Prime Minister of New Zealand.
22 Jan 2023 Chris Hipkins is unanimously elected Leader of the Labour Party.
19 Jan 2023 Jacinda Ardern announces her resignation as Prime Minister of New Zealand, taking effect 25 January 2023.
10–16 Jan 2023 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,00031.737.210.610.81.62.85.5
Dec 2022 Roy Morgan 94727.5351114.5442.517.5
10 Dec 2022 Tama Potaka of the National Party wins the Hamilton West by-election.
1–6 Dec 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,00033.139.48.110.43.52.96.3
Dec 2022 Talbot Mills 32359113.54.32.43
26–30 Nov 2022 1 News–Kantar Public 1,011333891123.61.70.65
31 Oct – 27 Nov 2022 Roy Morgan 92625.539121143.52.50.513.5
3–8 Nov 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,00035.337.67.89.91.63.82.10.92.3
31 Oct – 7 Nov 2022 Talbot Mills 34359103.24.421
25 Oct – 3 Nov 2022 Newshub–Reid Research 32.340.79.5101.93.31.28.4
20–25 Oct 2022 Horizon Research 1,15429.726.61313.52.27.221.83.1
26 Sep – 23 Oct 2022 Roy Morgan 951293215.512.533.530.53
2–11 Oct 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,00034.439.27.29.42.12.13.414.8
Oct 2022 Talbot Mills 35359112.24Tie
29 Aug – 25 Sep 2022 Roy Morgan 94229.53612.512.53.512.50.56.5
17–21 Sep 2022 1 News–Kantar Public 1,0013437991.631.313
12 Sep 2022The COVID-19 Protection Framework officially ends.
1–9 Sep 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,00033.4379.912.41.51.60.71.53.6
31 Aug – 7 Sep 2022 Talbot Mills 35388933
25 Jul – 21 Aug 2022 Roy Morgan 9473535.5910.551.510.50.5
3–11 Aug 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,20035.2349.5113.52.61.2
28 Jul – 8 Aug 2022 Talbot Mills 36379101
30 Jul – 3 Aug 2022 1 News–Kantar Public 1,02333379112.32.61.90.74
29 Jul – 3 Aug 2022 Horizon Research 1,04434.131.410.210.72.23.51.72.72.7
Jul 2022 Roy Morgan 937343510.51141.52.511
3–10 Jul 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,20034.7378.5103.72.82.3
30 May – 26 Jun 2022 Roy Morgan 94733.539109.51.51.520.55.5
18 Jun 2022 Sam Uffindell of the National Party wins the Tauranga by-election.
1–12 Jun 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,20034.237.48.39.41.82.331.43.2
2–10 Jun 2022 Talbot Mills 1,20036351083.13.31
26 Apr – 22 May 2022 Roy Morgan 93431.54011.5101310.58.5
21–25 May 2022 1 News–Kantar Public 1,00235391071.91.31.71.24
19 May 2022The 2022 Budget is delivered.
4–11 May 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,00034.236.89.710.92.41.81.41.32.6
29 Apr – 10 May 2022 Talbot Mills [lower-alpha 2] 373687341
18–27 Apr 2022 Newshub–Reid Research 1,00038.240.58.46.42.51.70.90.72.3
28 Mar – 24 Apr 2022 Roy Morgan 91833.537.510.5101.52.520.54
13 Apr 2022New Zealand shifts from the Red Light setting to the Orange Light setting of the COVID-19 Protection Framework.
7–13 Apr 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,00036.837.89.48.43.61.71
28 Feb – 27 Mar 2022 Roy Morgan 944323810.59241.50.56
2–7, 14–15 Mar 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,00036.235.312.411.20.21.80.10.60.9
5–8 Mar 2022 1 News–Kantar Public 1,0003739982.32.21.30.92
31 Jan – 27 Feb 2022 Roy Morgan 96332381111.522116
1–10 Feb 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,00042.338.46.36.611.523.9
22 Jan – 4 Feb 2022 Newshub–Reid Research 1,00044.331.39.6821.81.51.113
4–30 Jan 2022 Roy Morgan 951333510.513.52.52.51.512
22–26 Jan 2022 1 News–Kantar Public 1,00040329111.61.81.618
23 Jan 2022Nationwide Red Light restrictions are implemented due to the COVID−19 Omicron variant being detected in the community.
10–17 Jan 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,00041.23310.711.50.50.91.18.2
22 Nov – 19 Dec 2021 Roy Morgan 96735.531.58.518.51210.54
1–8 Dec 2021 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,00039.532.610.910.632.36.9
2 Dec 2021New Zealand shifts from the COVID-19 alert level system to the new COVID-19 Protection Framework system.
30 Nov 2021 Christopher Luxon is elected Leader of the National Party with Nicola Willis as his deputy.
25 Nov 2021 Judith Collins loses the National Party leadership.
25 Oct – 21 Nov 2021 Roy Morgan 9513626.510.517.532.51.519.5
10–17 Nov 2021 Newshub–Reid Research 1,00042.726.97.2162.12.51.20.915.8
6–10 Nov 2021 1 News–Kantar Public 1,00141289140.93.31.2113
1–8 Nov 2021 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,00039.326.28.615.92.31.713.1
29 Oct – 3 Nov 2021 Labour–Talbot Mills [lower-alpha 2] 1,02341249172.44.217
27 Sep – 24 Oct 2021 Roy Morgan 92939.52610.51622.511.513.5
3–11 Oct 2021 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,00044.822.56.416.61.53.622.3
28 Sep – 5 Oct 2021 Labour–Talbot Mills [lower-alpha 2] 1,200+46227161.93.824
30 Aug – 26 Sep 2021 Roy Morgan 94045.5239.51621.51.522.5
22–26 Sep 2021 1 News–Kantar Public 1,00143268142.12.51.21.317
5–9 Sep 2021 Taxpayers' Union–Curia [lower-alpha 2] 1,00045.821.39.614.91.22.724.5
31 Aug – 6 Sep 2021 Labour–Talbot Mills [lower-alpha 2] 1,050452661324.119
26 Jul – 22 Aug 2021 Roy Morgan 94039.52512132.52.5214.5
17 Aug 2021Nationwide Level 4 restrictions are implemented due to the COVID−19 Delta variant being detected in the community.
21 Jul – 1 Aug 2021 Labour–Talbot Mills [lower-alpha 2] 1,21643287131.74.415
22–29 Jul 2021 Newshub–Reid Research 1,0004328.78.511.11.93.40.81.614.3
28 Jun – 25 Jul 2021 Roy Morgan 94539.52910132.52310.5
24 Jun – 1 Jul 2021 Labour–Talbot Mills [lower-alpha 2] 1,19948248111.5524
31 May – 27 Jun 2021 Roy Morgan 92738.529.512.511.52.51.529
22–26 May 2021 1 News–Kantar Public 1,0024629891.81.21.81.517
26 Apr – 23 May 2021 Roy Morgan 9324528.51191.521.516.5
20 May 2021The 2021 Budget is delivered.
7–13 May 2021 Newshub–Reid Research 1,00052.7277.16.91.21.91.31.225.7
29 Mar – 25 Apr 2021 Roy Morgan 93341.529.513.592.510.512
21–28 Mar 2021 Roy Morgan 92445.523121112.5222.5
9–13 Mar 2021 1 News–Kantar Public 1,0064927981.51.81.21.422
25 Jan – 21 Feb 2021 Roy Morgan 924452913.57.511.5116
4–24 Jan 2021 Roy Morgan 937472511.59221.522
23 Nov – 13 Dec 2020 Roy Morgan 923442810.51022216
28 Nov – 2 Dec 2020 1 News–Kantar Public 1,0045325881.51.60.51.128
26 Oct – 22 Nov 2020 Roy Morgan 9394425.512.510.51.51218.5
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result [3] N/A5025.67.97.61.22.61.51.524.4
Date [lower-alpha 1] Polling organisationSample size LAB NAT GRN ACT TPM NZF TOP NCP Lead

General electorates

Auckland Central

Electorate vote
DatePolling organisationSample size GRN LAB NAT ACT NZF Lead
24 Sep 2023Taxpayers' Union–Curia [4] 500381736242
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result [3] N/A35.1032.1327.161.630.762.97
Party vote
DatePolling organisationSample size LAB NAT ACT GRN Lead
24 Sep 2023Taxpayers' Union–Curia [5] [6] 500263792311
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result [3] N/A46.0221.107.4819.0624.92

Ilam

Electorate vote
DatePolling organisationSample size LAB NAT TOP GRN Lead
23 Aug 2023Taxpayers' Union–Curia [7] 400153314518
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result [3] N/A45.6737.69N/A7.517.98

Napier

Electorate vote
DatePolling organisationSample size LAB NAT ACT NZF Lead
20 Aug 2023Taxpayers' Union–Curia [8] 40037481511
9 Nov 2022Curia [9] 40037451218
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result [3] N/A51.0637.04N/AN/A18.77
Party vote
DatePolling organisationSample size LAB NAT ACT Lead
20 Aug 2023Taxpayers' Union–Curia [8] 4002735178
9 Nov 2022Curia [9] 40025432018
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result [3] N/A50.5927.908.1212.76

Northland

Electorate vote

DatePolling organisationSample sizeNATLABNZFGRNDNZACTLead
10 Sep 2023Taxpayers' Union-Curia [10] 40049201555329
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result N/A37.7438.1111.433.91N/A2.860.37

Tāmaki

Electorate vote
DatePolling organisationSample size NAT LAB GRN ACT Lead
18–28 Sep 2023Taxpayers' Union–Curia [11] 4004014382
20 Jul 2023Sentio Group [12] 7003686342
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result [3] N/A51.7332.297.855.1819.44
Party vote
DatePolling organisationSample size LAB NAT ACT GRN Lead
18–28 Sep 2023Taxpayers' Union–Curia [11] 400204914829
20 Jul 2023Sentio Group [12] 70013491836
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result [3] N/A38.4236.8711.687.651.55

Tauranga

An opinion poll was held in the Tauranga electorate prior to the June 2022 Tauranga by-election. The by-election was won by National's Sam Uffindell. [13]

Party vote
DatePolling organisationSample size LAB NAT ACT GRN NZF TPM Lead
18 Jun 2022 2022 by-election result N/A25.3055.8710.26N/AN/AN/A30.57
19–29 May 2022Newshub–Reid Research [14]  ?27.951.57.12.82.94.723.6
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result [3] N/A42.032.58.95.53.60.359.5

Party vote

DatePolling organisationSample size LAB TPM NAT GRN NZF ACT Lead
26 September 2023Whakaata Māori–Curia [15] 50031189143613
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result [3] N/A58.708.695.6411.543.452.7550.01

Wellington Central

Electorate vote
DatePolling organisationSample size NAT LAB GRN Lead
3–14 Sep 2023Newshub–Reid Research50028.030.626.62.6
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result [3] N/A17.7657.2617.5439.50
Party vote
DatePolling organisationSample size LAB NAT GRN ACT TOP TPM NZF Lead
3–14 Sep 2023Newshub–Reid Research [16] 50027.82826.55.74.932.80.2
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result [3] N/A43.014.4330.334.863.720.531.1112.67

Māori electorates

Hauraki-Waikato

Electorate vote
DatePolling organisationSample size LAB TPM Lead
27 September 2023Whakaata Māori–Curia [17] 50036324
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result [3] N/A65.2625.5739.69
Party vote
DatePolling organisationSample size LAB TPM NAT GRN NZF ACT Lead
27 September 2023Whakaata Māori–Curia [17] 5002626148650
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result [3] N/A63.3812.003.656.213.581.2851.38

Ikaroa-Rāwhiti

Electorate vote

DatePolling organisationSample size LAB TPM Lead
21 September 2023Whakaata Māori–Curia [18] 50033258
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result [3] N/A55.5730.9424.63

Party vote

DatePolling organisationSample size LAB TPM NAT GRN NZF ACT Lead
21 September 2023Whakaata Māori–Curia [18] 50035241176411
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result [3] N/A67.3312.162.336.483.760.8855.17

Tāmaki Makaurau

Electorate vote

DatePolling organisationSample size LAB TPM NAT GRN Lead
10 October 2023Whakaata Māori–Curia [19] 50037279610
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result [3] N/A39.5635.98N/A19.313.58

Party vote

DatePolling organisationSample size LAB TPM NAT GRN NZF ACT Lead
10 October 2023Whakaata Māori–Curia [19] 50035221098213
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result [3] N/A59.9812.73.2110.464.341.0650.01

Te Tai Hauāuru

DatePolling organisationSample size LAB TPM NAT Lead
19 September 2023Whakaata Māori–Curia [20] 5003429125
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result [3] N/A47.4043.29N/A4.11

Party vote

DatePolling organisationSample size LAB TPM NAT GRN NZF ACT Lead
19 September 2023Whakaata Māori–Curia [20] 50034221367212
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result [3] N/A61.0315.452.996.713.511.2045.58

Te Tai Tokerau

DatePolling organisationSample size LAB TPM GRN ALC Lead
5 October 2023Whakaata Māori–Curia [21] 5003226766
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result [3] N/A55.0724.96N/A7.8630.11

Party vote

DatePolling organisationSample size LAB TPM NAT GRN ACT Lead
5 October 2023Whakaata Māori–Curia [21] 500352289413
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result [3] N/A60.0610.183.617.351.3149.88

Te Tai Tonga

Electorate vote

DatePolling organisationSample size LAB TPM Lead
26 September 2023Whakaata Māori–Curia [15] 50036259
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result [3] N/A48.8825.4123.47

Waiariki

Electorate vote

DatePolling organisationSample size TPM LAB Lead
9 October 2023Whakaata Māori–Curia [22] 500502228
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result [3] N/A46.7843.623.16

Party vote

DatePolling organisationSample size LAB TPM NAT GRN NZF ACT Lead
9 October 2023Whakaata Māori–Curia [22] 500372967438
17 Oct 2020 2020 election result [3] N/A60.6717.752.395.953.670.9442.92

Preferred prime minister

Some opinion pollsters ask voters who they would prefer as prime minister. The phrasing of questions and the treatment of refusals, as well as "don't know" answers, differ from poll to poll. To qualify for this table and graph, this person must reach at least 3 percent in three separate polls.

Preferred prime minister polling for the 2023 New Zealand election.svg
Graph of preferred prime minister opinion polls (as at 10 October 2023). Only includes people who polled at least 3% in three separate polls. Smoothing is set to span 45%.
Date [lower-alpha 1] Polling organisationSample size Hipkins Luxon Seymour Peters Ardern Collins Lead
7–10 Oct 2023 1 News–Verian 1,0012525450.50.2Tie
5–10 Oct 2023 Newshub–Reid Research 22.223.64.253.41.4
1–4 Oct 2023 Taxpayers’ Union–Curia 1,000272944.34.52
30 Sep – 3 Oct 2023 1 News–Verian 1,0002526340.41
23–26 Sep 2023 1 News–Verian 1,0022323541Tie
17–23 Sep 2023 Newshub–Reid Research 19.1246.164.14.9
16–19 Sep 2023 1 News–Verian 1,00123235410.2Tie
9–12 Sep 2023 1 News–Verian 1,00223235410.1Tie
3–9 Sep 2023 Newshub–Reid Research 22.522.574.6Tie
28–30 Aug 2023 The Post–Freshwater Strategy 1,51145432
24–30 Aug 2023 Talbot Mills 282611---2
12–16 Aug 2023 1 News–Verian 1,00021206320.21
3–8 Aug 2023 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000252577Tie
31 Jul – 7 Aug 2023 Talbot Mills 1,0123424----10
26–31 Jul 2023 Newshub–Reid Research 2415.910.94.38.1
8–12 Jul 2023 1 News–Verian 1,00024207214
2–10 Jul 2023 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000232063.68-3
28 Jun – 2 Jul 2023 Talbot Mills 1,0363221----11
31 May – 6 Jun 2023 Taxpayers' Union Curia 1,000292372.89-6
20–24 May 2023 1 News–Kantar Public 1,00225187210.17
5–11 May 2023 Newshub–Reid Research 23.416.47.53.68.57
27 Apr – 3 May 2023 Talbot Mills 1,04632257
30 Mar – 5 Apr 2023 Talbot Mills 36241112
1–9 Mar 2023 Talbot Mills 1,021392316
4–8 Mar 2023 1 News–Kantar Public 1,00227176320.210
2–7 Mar 2023 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,0003021879
1–9 Feb 2023 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,000302683.594
26–31 Jan 2023 Talbot Mills 352798
25–29 Jan 2023 1 News–Kantar Public 1,00823226250.31
22–27 Jan 2023 Newshub–Reid Research 19.618.882.912.40.8
25 Jan 2023 Chris Hipkins is sworn in as the 41st Prime Minister of New Zealand.
22 Jan 2023 Chris Hipkins is unanimously elected Leader of the Labour Party.
19 Jan 2023 Jacinda Ardern announces her resignation as Prime Minister of New Zealand, taking effect 25 January 2023.
1–6 Dec 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,00026.37.13.435.39
26–30 Nov 2022 1 News–Kantar Public 1,0110.22362290.16
3–8 Nov 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,00021.16.12.53513.9
31 Oct – 7 Nov 2022 Talbot Mills 244016
25 Oct – 3 Nov 2022 Newshub–Reid Research 21.57.34.229.98.4
2–11 Oct 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,00022.57.33.632.910.4
17–21 Sep 2022 1 News–Kantar Public 1,0010.22142300.19
1–9 Sep 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,00025.96.62.636.510.6
31 Aug – 7 Sep 2022 Talbot Mills 263812
3–11 Aug 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,20019.57.74.239.520
28 Jul – 8 Aug 2022 Talbot Mills 2693913
30 Jul – 3 Aug 2022 1 News–Kantar Public 1,0230.22252300.28
3–10 Jul 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,20022.46.12.341.218.8
1–12 Jun 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,200285.63.839.711.7
2–10 Jun 2022 Talbot Mills 1,2002984213
21–25 May 2022 1 News–Kantar Public 1,0022531330.18
4–11 May 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,00027.935.17.2
18–27 Apr 2022 Newshub–Reid Research 23.95.136.312.4
7–13 Apr 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,00028.64.82.636.37.7
2–7, 14–15 Mar 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,00026.64.45.538.712.1
5–8 Mar 2022 1 News–Kantar Public 1,0000.32552340.39
1–10 Feb 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,00028.52.41.838.91.510.4
22 Jan – 4 Feb 2022 Newshub–Reid Research 17.87.943.325.5
22–26 Jan 2022 1 News–Kantar Public 1,0000.11761.0350.218
10–17 Jan 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,00018.48.40.937.53.819.1
1–8 Dec 2021 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,00020.45.62.439.10.818.7
30 Nov 2021 Christopher Luxon is elected Leader of the National Party.
25 Nov 2021 Judith Collins is removed as National Party leader in a vote of no confidence.
10–17 Nov 2021 Newshub–Reid Research 1,0002.511.941.76.129.8
6–10 Nov 2021 1 News–Kantar Public 1,001411139528
1–8 Nov 2021 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,0004.110.51.5346.323.5
29 Oct – 3 Nov 2021 Talbot Mills 1,023215471032
3–11 Oct 2021 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,0002.312.31.347.25.234.9
28 Sep – 5 Oct 2021 Talbot Mills 1,200+1651935
22–26 Sep 2021 1 News–Kantar Public 1,0010.13110.744533
5–9 Sep 2021 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,0003.39.31.550.84.441.5
31 Aug – 6 Sep 2021 Talbot Mills 1,0501.314551341
21 Jul – 1 Aug 2021 Talbot Mills 1,2162.114501136
22–29 Jul 2021 Newshub–Reid Research 1,0008.645.58.236.9
24 Jun – 1 Jul 2021 Talbot Mills 1,19912551043
22–26 May 2021 1 News–Kantar Public 1,00236148939
7–13 May 2021 Newshub–Reid Research 1,0002.448.15.642.5
9–13 Mar 2021 1 News–Kantar Public 1,006240.743835
28 Nov – 2 Dec 2020 1 News–Kantar Public 1,0040.3241581246

Government approval rating

The government approval rating is a statistic which measures the proportion of people who say they think the country is heading in the right direction or wrong direction politically.

Government approval polling prior to the 2023 New Zealand election.svg
Graph of government approval rating polls (as at 31 August 2023). Smoothing is set to span 65%.
Date [lower-alpha 1] Polling organisationSample sizeRight directionWrong directionDo not knowLead
4 Sep – 8 Oct 2023 Roy Morgan 3845177
31 Jul – 27 Aug 2023 Roy Morgan 1,04632561223
28–30 Aug 2023 The Post–Freshwater Strategy 1,51121631542
31 Jul – 7 Aug 2023 Talbot Mills 1,0123755818
2–6 Aug 2023 Guardian Essential 1,16331551424
26 Jun – 23 Jul 2023 Roy Morgan 9372960.510.531.5
2–10 Jul 2023 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,00022.164.513.442.4
29 May – 25 Jun 2023 Roy Morgan 9553854816
24 Apr – 21 May 2023 Roy Morgan 95234.554.51120
27 Apr – 3 May 2023 Talbot Mills 1,0464052812
27 Mar – 23 Apr 2023 Roy Morgan 92935551020
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2023 Roy Morgan 94538.552.5914
30 Jan – 26 Feb 2023 Roy Morgan 94342.547.5105
9–29 Jan 2023 Roy Morgan 9484049119
Dec 2022 Roy Morgan 94732571125
31 Oct – 27 Nov 2022 Roy Morgan 92635551020
31 Oct – 7 Nov 2022 Talbot Mills 4149108
26 Sep – 23 Oct 2022 Roy Morgan 951425088
2–11 Oct 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,00029561527
29 Aug – 25 Sep 2022 Roy Morgan 94237.551.51114
1–9 Sep 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,00032541422
31 Aug – 7 Sep 2022 Talbot Mills 444975
25 Jul – 21 Aug 2022 Roy Morgan 94737.5539.515.5
28 Jul – 8 Aug 2022 Talbot Mills 425088
27 Jul – 24 Jul 2022 Roy Morgan 93740.5518.510.5
30 May – 26 Jun 2022 Roy Morgan 9473951.59.512.5
1–12 Jun 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,20036501414
2–10 Jun 2022 Talbot Mills 1,200504288
26 Apr – 22 May 2022 Roy Morgan 93440501010
4–11 May 2022 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,00034481814
29 Apr – 10 May 2022 Talbot Mills 5140911
28 Mar – 24 Apr 2022 Roy Morgan 9134349.57.56.5
28 Feb – 27 Mar 2022 Roy Morgan 9443951.59.512.5
31 Jan – 27 Feb 2022 Roy Morgan 96342.547.5105
4–30 Jan 2022 Roy Morgan 95148.5429.56.5
22 Nov – 19 Dec 2021 Roy Morgan 96742.544.5132
25 Oct – 21 Nov 2021 Roy Morgan 9514644.59.51.5
1–8 Nov 2021 Taxpayers' Union–Curia 1,0004445111
27 Sep – 24 Oct 2021 Roy Morgan 9294838.513.59.5
28 Sep – 5 Oct 2021 Talbot Mills 1,2006330733
30 Aug – 26 Sep 2021 Roy Morgan 94057321125
26 Jul – 22 Aug 2021 Roy Morgan 94052.537.51015
28 Jun – 25 Jul 2021 Roy Morgan 94555.534.51021
31 May – 27 Jun 2021 Roy Morgan 92757331024
26 Apr – 23 May 2021 Roy Morgan 93262.528.5934
29 Mar – 25 Apr 2021 Roy Morgan 93362.526.51136
21–28 Mar 2021 Roy Morgan 92461.52612.535.5
25 Jan – 21 Feb 2021 Roy Morgan 92469.52010.549.5
4–24 Jan 2021 Roy Morgan 93771.518.51053
23 Nov – 13 Dec 2020 Roy Morgan 92371.51810.553.5
26 Oct – 22 Nov 2020 Roy Morgan 93969.52010.549.5

Forecasts

The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party (ACT retains Epsom, Greens retain Auckland Central, Māori retains Waiariki, etc.). Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.

When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future. [23]

On 19 November 2022, New Zealand First leader Winston Peters ruled out a coalition with Labour, claiming "No one gets to lie to me twice". [24] In April 2023, National leader Christopher Luxon commented that it would be "highly unlikely" that National would form a government with Te Pāti Māori or the Greens; however, a spokesperson later clarified Luxon had not "intended to fully rule out working" with either party. At the time, Te Pāti Māori was largely seen as the kingmaker in the upcoming election. [25] Furthermore, Te Pāti Māori may not be prepared to support a National-led government that includes the ACT Party, as Te Pāti Māori has repeatedly accused the ACT Party of race baiting over co-governance and its calls for a referendum on the Treaty of Waitangi. [26] On 10 May, Luxon officially ruled out forming a coalition with Te Pāti Māori. [27] On 27 August, Labour leader Chris Hipkins ruled out New Zealand First as a possible coalition partner. [28]

SourceSeats in parliament [lower-roman 1] Likely
government
formation(s)
LAB NAT GRN ACT TPM NZF Total
2023 election result [29]
14 Oct 2023
3448151168122National–ACT–NZ First (67)
1 News–Verian [30]
7–10 Oct 2023 poll
3547171128120National–ACT–NZ First (66)
Newshub–Reid Research [31]
5–10 Oct 2023 poll
3543191139120National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Guardian Essential [32]
4–8 Oct 2023 poll
39441410211120National–ACT–NZ First (65)
Roy Morgan [33]
4 Sep – 8 Oct 2023 poll
33391915410120National–ACT–NZ First (64)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia [34]
1–4 Oct 2023 poll
3546131259120National–ACT–NZ First (67)
Talbot Mills [35]
22–28 Sep 2023 poll
3447161148120National–ACT–NZ First (66)
The Post/Freshwater Strategy [36]
28–30 Aug 2023 poll
3446151447120National–ACT–NZ First (67)
  1. Forecasted seats are calculated using the Electoral Commission's MMP seat allocation calculator, based on polling results.

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Private poll

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Winston Peters</span> New Zealand politician (born 1945)

Winston Raymond Peters is a New Zealand politician who has been the leader of New Zealand First since it was founded in 1993. He was re-elected for a fifteenth time at the 2023 general election, having previously been a member of Parliament (MP) from 1979 to 1981, 1984 to 2008 and 2011 to 2020. Peters has served as the 13th deputy prime minister of New Zealand and 25th minister of foreign affairs since November 2023.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1999 New Zealand general election</span> General election in New Zealand

The 1999 New Zealand general election was held on 27 November 1999 to determine the composition of the 46th New Zealand Parliament. The governing National Party, led by Prime Minister Jenny Shipley, was defeated, being replaced by a coalition of Helen Clark's Labour Party and the smaller Alliance. This marked an end to nine years of the Fourth National Government, and the beginning of the Fifth Labour Government which would govern for nine years in turn, until its loss to the National Party in the 2008 general election. It was the first New Zealand election where both major parties had female leaders.

Te Pāti Māori, also known as the Māori Party, is a political party in New Zealand advocating Māori rights. With the exception of a handful of general electorates, Te Pāti Māori contests the reserved Māori electorates, in which its main rival is the Labour Party.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Māori electorates</span> Electoral districts for Māori voters in New Zealand

In New Zealand politics, Māori electorates, colloquially known as the Māori seats, are a special category of electorate that give reserved positions to representatives of Māori in the New Zealand Parliament. Every area in New Zealand is covered by both a general and a Māori electorate; as of 2020, there are seven Māori electorates. Since 1967, candidates in Māori electorates have not needed to be Māori themselves, but to register as a voter in the Māori electorates people need to declare that they are of Māori descent.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Nanaia Mahuta</span> New Zealand politician (born 1970)

Nanaia Cybele Mahuta is a New Zealand former politician who served as the Minister of Foreign Affairs of New Zealand from 2020 to 2023. In October 2022, Mahuta became the Mother of the House, having served continuously in the House of Representatives since the 1996 general election. She lost her seat in parliament in the 2023 general election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Māori politics</span> Politics of the Māori people

Māori politics is the politics of the Māori people, who were the original inhabitants of New Zealand and who are now the country's largest minority.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Simon Bridges</span> New Zealand politician and lawyer

Simon Joseph Bridges is a former New Zealand politician and lawyer. He served as Leader of the National Party and Leader of the Opposition between 2018 and 2020, and as the Member of Parliament for Tauranga from the 2008 election to May 2022, when he resigned.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2017 New Zealand general election</span>

The 2017 New Zealand general election took place on Saturday 23 September 2017 to determine the membership of the 52nd New Zealand Parliament. The previous parliament was elected on 20 September 2014 and was officially dissolved on 22 August 2017. Voters elected 120 members to the House of Representatives under New Zealand's mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system, a proportional representation system in which 71 members were elected from single-member electorates and 49 members were elected from closed party lists. Around 3.57 million people were registered to vote in the election, with 2.63 million (79.8%) turning out. Advance voting proved popular, with 1.24 million votes cast before election day, more than the previous two elections combined.

Various organisations commissioned opinion polls for the 2017 New Zealand general election during the term of the 51st New Zealand Parliament (2014–2017). Roy Morgan Research polled monthly, with MediaWorks New Zealand and Television New Zealand polling less frequently. The last The New Zealand Herald was in December 2015, and Fairfax Media discontinued their poll after the 2014 election. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varied by organisation and date, but were typically 800–1000 participants with a margin of error of just over 3%.

Hobson's Pledge is a right-wing lobby group in New Zealand that was formed in late September 2016 to oppose affirmative action for Māori people. It is led by conservative politician Don Brash. The group aims to nullify the partnership between the Crown and Māori, remove the Māori electorates, abolish the Waitangi Tribunal, restrict tribal powers and "remove all references in law and in Government policy to Treaty 'partnership' and 'principles'".

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 New Zealand general election</span>

The 2020 New Zealand general election was held on Saturday 17 October 2020 to determine the composition of the 53rd New Zealand Parliament. Voters elected 120 members to the House of Representatives, 72 from single-member electorates and 48 from closed party lists. Two referendums, one on the personal use of cannabis and one on euthanasia, were also held on the same day. Official results of the election and referendums were released on 6 November.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Christopher Luxon</span> Prime Minister of New Zealand since 2023

Christopher Mark Luxon is a New Zealand politician and former business executive who has served as the 42nd prime minister of New Zealand since November 2023. He served as leader of the Opposition from 2021 to 2023. Luxon became member of Parliament (MP) for Botany in 2020. He had previously been the chief executive officer (CEO) of Air New Zealand from 2012 to 2019.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2023 New Zealand general election</span> General election for the 54th Parliament of New Zealand

The 2023 New Zealand general election was held on 14 October 2023 to determine the composition of the 54th Parliament of New Zealand. Voters elected 122 members to the unicameral New Zealand House of Representatives under the mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system, with 71 members elected from single-member electorates and the remaining members elected from closed party lists. Of the 72 electorates, only 71 seats were filled, with the remaining electorate MP determined in the 2023 Port Waikato by-election, due to the death of one of the general election candidates. Two overhang seats were added due to Te Pāti Māori winning six electorate seats when the party vote only entitled them to four seats, with an additional overhang seat added after the by-election making for 123 members of parliament.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Debbie Ngarewa-Packer</span> New Zealand politician and Māori leader

Debbie Anne Ngarewa-Packer is a New Zealand politician, iwi leader and activist. She is a Member of Parliament and co-leader of Te Pāti Māori alongside Rawiri Waititi, and is the chief executive of the Ngāti Ruanui iwi.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 Tauranga by-election</span> Tauranga by-election in 2022

The 2022 Tauranga by-election for the New Zealand House of Representatives was held on 18 June 2022 in the Tauranga electorate, after the sitting member, former National Party leader Simon Bridges, resigned from parliament. The National Party's Sam Uffindell won the by-election in a landslide result, ahead of the Labour Party's Jan Tinetti.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Candidates in the 2023 New Zealand general election by electorate</span>

This page lists candidates contesting electorates in the 2023 New Zealand general election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 Hamilton West by-election</span> New Zealand by-election

The 2022 Hamilton West by-election was a by-election in New Zealand's Hamilton West electorate. The seat became vacant due to the resignation of former Labour Party MP Gaurav Sharma on 18 October 2022 after expulsion from the party caucus.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Next New Zealand general election</span> Next general election in New Zealand

The next New Zealand general election will be held after the current 54th New Zealand Parliament is dissolved or expires. The current Parliament was elected on Saturday, 14 October 2023. The last possible date for the election to be held is Saturday, 19 December 2026.

Several polling firms will conduct opinion polls during the term of the 54th New Zealand Parliament (2023–present) for the next New Zealand general election. The regular polls are the quarterly polls produced by Television New Zealand conducted by Verian and Discovery New Zealand (Newshub) conducted by Reid Research, along with monthly polls by Roy Morgan, and by Curia. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">54th New Zealand Parliament</span> Current New Zealand parliamentary term

The 54th New Zealand Parliament is the current meeting of the legislature in New Zealand. It opened on 5 December 2023 following the 14 October 2023 general election, and will expire on or before 16 November 2026 to trigger the next election.

References

  1. "'I no longer have enough in the tank': Jacinda Ardern resigns as New Zealand Prime Minister". ABC News. 19 January 2023. Archived from the original on 19 January 2023. Retrieved 19 January 2023.
  2. "ACT Party Port Waikato candidate Neil Christensen dies". Radio NZ News. Retrieved 10 October 2023.
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 "2020 General Election – Official Results and Statistics". ElectionResults.govt.nz. Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 21 January 2021. Retrieved 28 February 2021.
  4. "National's Muralidhar nipping at Swarbrick's heels in Auckland central electorate poll". Radio New Zealand. 26 September 2023. Archived from the original on 26 September 2023. Retrieved 26 September 2023.
  5. "Poll shows Chlöe Swarbrick in fight to hold Auckland Central". Newstalk ZB. 27 September 2023.
  6. "Auckland Central Electorate Debate 2023 - Taxpayers' Union The Working Group". YouTube . New Zealand Taxpayers' Union. Retrieved 26 September 2023.
  7. "Christchurch's Ilam electorate swings back to National, according to latest poll". Radio New Zealand. 29 August 2023. Archived from the original on 29 August 2023. Retrieved 29 August 2023.
  8. 1 2 "NEW POLL: National Leads In Napier Electorate". New Zealand Taxpayers' Union. 23 August 2023. Archived from the original on 23 August 2023. Retrieved 23 August 2023.
  9. 1 2 "Napier Poll - November 2022" (PDF). Curia. 9 November 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on 13 March 2023. Retrieved 4 September 2023.
  10. September 12; Media, 2023 Nztu. "NEW POLL: National Lead in Northland Electorate". Taxpayers' Union. Retrieved 7 October 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  11. 1 2 Manhire, Toby (3 October 2023). "Simon O'Connor vs Brooke van Velden will go to wire in Tāmaki – new poll". The Spinoff.
  12. 1 2 "Matthew Hooton: Van Velden on track to make it two seats for Act in Auckland". NZ Herald. 21 July 2023. Archived from the original on 20 July 2023. Retrieved 20 July 2023.
  13. "Tauranga – Official Result". Electoral Commission . Retrieved 17 September 2023.
  14. "Tauranga by-election: On the campaign trail and behind the scenes with National, ACT and Labour". Newshub. Archived from the original on 25 June 2022. Retrieved 21 June 2022.
  15. 1 2 "Tirikatene tightens grip on Te Tai Tonga". Te Ao Māori News. Retrieved 5 October 2023.
  16. "Newshub Nation Reid Research Poll: Labour's Ibrahim Omer, Greens' Tamatha Paul, National's Scott Sheeran neck and neck in Wellington Central". Newshub. Retrieved 17 September 2023.
  17. 1 2 "Election's youngest candidate has Labour stronghold under siege". Te Ao Māori News. Retrieved 5 October 2023.
  18. 1 2 "Will voters punish Meka Whaitiri for waka jumping?". Te Ao Māori News. Retrieved 5 October 2023.
  19. 1 2 "Older voters back Henare and Labour; younger favour Kemp and Te Pāti Māori". Te Ao Māori News. Retrieved 11 October 2023.
  20. 1 2 "Neck and neck race for Te Tai Hauāuru". Te Ao Māori News. Retrieved 8 October 2023.
  21. 1 2 "KORO BEATS WINNING THE ELECTION FOR KELVIN DAVIS | Media Release | Whakaata Māori". www.whakaatamaori.co.nz. Retrieved 8 October 2023.
  22. 1 2 "Poll: Rawiri Waititi takes clear lead to hold Waiariki". Te Ao Māori News. Retrieved 9 October 2023.
  23. Schwartz, Dominique (20 September 2014). "John Key's National Party takes out New Zealand election". ABC News. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
  24. Swift, Molly. "NZ First leader Winston Peters rules out coalition with Labour". Newshub. No. 19 November 2022. Retrieved 29 September 2023.
  25. Franke-Bowell, Jonah; McConnell, Glenn (13 April 2023). "'Highly unlikely' Christopher Luxon will partner with Te Pāti Māori or 'socialist' Greens". Stuff. Retrieved 12 April 2023.
  26. McConnell, Glenn (11 January 2023). "Te Pāti Māori plans for a big 2023, but happy to stay cross bench". Stuff. Retrieved 11 January 2023.
  27. McConnell, Glenn (10 May 2023). "National's Christopher Luxon officially rules out working with Māori Party". Stuff. Retrieved 10 May 2023.
  28. "'Instability and chaos' - Labour rules out a partnership with NZ First". RNZ. 27 August 2023. Retrieved 27 August 2023.
  29. "2023 General Election - Official Result". ElectionResults.govt.nz. Electoral Commission. 3 November 2023.
  30. Desmarais, Felix (11 October 2023). "Poll: Labour lifts and Greens strong, Peters has decision to make". 1 News.
  31. Lynch, Jenna (11 October 2023). "Newshub-Reid Research poll: National right to panic as support plummets, New Zealand First surges". Newshub.
  32. Graham-McLay, Charlotte (10 October 2023). "Guardian Essential New Zealand poll: Labour picks up steam days out from election". The Guardian.
  33. "New Zealand set for a new Prime Minister and a three-party governing coalition: National, ACT & NZ First". Roy Morgan. 13 October 2023.
  34. "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: October 2023". New Zealand Taxpayers' Union. 6 October 2023.
  35. Trevett, Claire (5 October 2023). "Election 2023: Last pre-election Talbot Mills shows NZ First rising and in the box seat, National and Greens rising, Act and Labour dropping". New Zealand Herald.
  36. Vance, Andrea (7 September 2023). "Labour slumps to new poll low but numbers offer some comfort". The Post.