Opinion polling for the 2024 Belgian elections

Last updated

In the run up to the 2024 Belgian federal election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Belgium. The results of nationwide polls are usually numerically split into the three Belgian regions: Flanders, Brussels and Wallonia. Federal seat projections for the Chamber of Representatives are presented together under these regional polls. The federal election was part of a group of elections which also include the regional elections and the European elections held on the same day. Some polls might be undefined voting intentions without differentiating between the elections.

Contents

Flanders

Federal

Opinion polling for the 2024 Belgian elections (Flanders).svg

The graph and the table below show the results for the opinion polls conducted in the Flemish Region, as well as for polls conducted nationwide the part of the results related to the Flemish Region.

Date(s) conductedPolling firmPublisherSample size N‑VA VB cd&v Open Vld Vooruit Groen PVDA OthersLeadGov.Opp.Blank/ no vote/no answer
9 June 2024 Federal election [1] 25.6%21.8%12.8%8.8%13.0%7.5%8.2%2.3%3.8%42.1%57.9%
3 – 4 June 2024 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws [2] 2,00021.0%25.8%12.3%7.0%15.6%6.1%10.2%2.0%4.8%41.0%59.0%
28 – 31 May 2024 Cluster17 RTL [3] 1,14019.6%27.2%12.0%9.2%13.0%6.9%9.3%2.8%7.6%41.1%58.2%
14 – 20 May 2024 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [4] 2,00020.6%26.8%12.2%8.2%14.3%6.6%8.9%2.4%6.2%41.3%58.7%
8 - 18 Apr 2024 Kantar La Libre Belgique / RTBF [5] 101620.9%26.0%11.6%10.4%11.5%6.0%12.2%1.4%5.1%39.5%60.5%
11 – 18 Mar 2024 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [6] 1,00020.4%27.4%13.1%8.3%11.4%7.8%9.5%2.1%7.0%40.6%59.4%
22 Jan – 8 Feb 2024 Kantar Knack / Le Vif [7] 1,07720.6%25.5%10.5%8.0%14.7%8.7%10.9%1.1%4.9%41.8%58.2%
9 – 22 Jan 2024 iVox Het Nieuwsblad / GVA / HBVL [8] 2,00022.7%26.6%12.3%7.6%12.8%7.4%9.3%1.4%3.9%42.6%57.4%
4 – 11 Dec 2023 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [9] 1,00022.0%25.1%11.7%7.1%13.8%9.2%9.7%1.4%3.1%41.8%58.2%
23 Nov – 28 Nov 2023 iVox Het Nieuwsblad / GVA / HBVL [10] 1,00022.0%26.5%11.6%8.8%14.3%7.1%8.7%0.9%4.5%41.7%58.3%
10 Sep – 9 Oct 2023 Kantar La Libre Belgique / RTBF [11] 56620.4%23.3%13.9%7.9%16.1%8.2%8.8%1.4%2.9%46.1%53.9%
18 – 25 Sep 2023 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [12] 1,00020.2%25.8%12.2%8.2%15.4%6.4%9.5%2.3%5.6%42.2%57.8%7%
29 May – 6 Jun 2023 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [13] 1,00021.8%22.7%10.7%8.3%16.8%7.6%10.3%1.8%0.9%43.4%56.6%
20 – 27 Mar 2023 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [14] 1,00021.6%25.0%11.8%9.2%15.5%7.4%8.0%1.5%3.4%43.9%56.1%
16 – 29 Jan 2023 Kantar La Libre Belgique [15] 51421.5%24.8%9.6%12.1%15.2%10.3%5.7%0.9%3.3%46.9%53.1%
21 – 29 Nov 2022 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [16] 1,00122.0%25.5%9.6%9.3%16.1%8.7%7.4%1.4%3.5%43.7%56.3%
7 – 13 Sep 2022 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [17] 1,00021.5%21.6%9.9%11.1%16.8%8.6%8.7%1.8%0.1%46.4%53.6%
6 – 14 Jun 2022 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [18] 1,00824.9%22.6%10.2%9.3%14.8%7.9%8.5%1.8%2.3%42.2%57.8%
15 – 22 Mar 2022 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [19] 1,00723.4%22.2%11.3%9.8%14.2%8.4%8.9%1.8%1.2%43.7%56.3%
1 – 8 Dec 2021 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [20] 98821.6%24.5%10.7%10.3%13.9%8.4%8.9%1.7%2.9%43.3%56.7%
7 – 14 Sep 2021 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [21] 1,00021.2%23.6%12.6%11.4%12.3%9.6%7.7%1.6%2.4%45.9%54.1%
25 May – 1 Jun 2021 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [22] 1,00221.8%26.1%10.0%11.4%12.6%8.3%7.8%2.0%4.3%42.3%57.7%
29 Mar – 19 Apr 2021TNS VRT / De Standaard [23] 1,90821.5%24.7%10.0%11.5%12.0%10.9%7.9%1.4%3.2%44.4%55.5%
4 – 9 Mar 2021 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [24] 1,00620.0%23.6%13.2%12.9%12.3%8.2%8.2%1.6%3.6%46.6%53.4%
2 – 8 Dec 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [25] 1,00719.9%26.3%12.4%12.0%13.6%8.1%6.6%1.1%6.4%46.1%53.9%
2 – 8 Oct 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [26] 1,00122.2%27.1%10.6%10.9%13.7%7.6%6.0%1.9%4.9%42.8%57.2%
1 Oct 2020 De Croo Government formed with Open Vld, sp.a (currently named Vooruit), cd&v, Groen (Flemish), MR, PS and Ecolo (Francophone)
10 – 15 Jun 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [27] 95120.0%27.7%11.8%10.0%12.5%9.4%7.3%1.3%7.7%43.7%56.3%
9 – 28 Apr 2020TNS VRT / De Standaard [28] 2,04020.3%24.5%11.9%11.6%11.0%11.1%8.2%1.4%4.2%45.6%54.4%
4 – 9 Mar 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir / De Morgen [29] 95820.7%28.0%11.7%10.3%9.6%8.8%9.3%1.9%7.3%40.4%59.6%
29 Nov – 6 Dec 2019 ESOMAR VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [30] 99922.1%27.3%11.4%9.9%8.9%10.7%8.4%1.3%5.2%40.9%59.1%
2–10 Sep 2019 ESOMAR VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [31] 1,00022.7%24.9%11.7%13.3%8.4%11.0%6.2%1.8%2.2%44.4%55.6%
26 May 2019 Federal election 25.5%18.6%14.2%13.5%10.8%9.8%5.6%1.9%6.9%48.3%51.6%

Regional

Date(s) conductedPolling firmPublisherSample size N‑VA VB cd&v Open Vld Vooruit Groen PVDA OthersLeadGov.Opp.Blank/ no vote/no answer
23 Apr – 3 May 2024 iVox OVV [32] 1,57921.4%26.3%12.5%7.7%13.5%8.2%8.8%1.7%4.9%41.9%58.1%
8 – 22 Jan 2024 Kantar VRT / De Standaard [33] 2,02918.9%27.8%11.3%9.0%13.7%8.2%10.7%0.5%8.9%39.2%60.8%10.1%
23 Nov – 28 Nov 2023 iVox Het Nieuwsblad / GVA / HBVL [34] 1,00021.3%27.5%12.9%8.7%13.2%6.9%8.5%0.9%6.2%42.9%57.1%
13 – 23 Mar 2023 VUB, UA VRT / De Standaard [35] 2,09221.0%24.6%9.2%9.3%16.9%7.9%9.5%1.6%3.6%39.5%60.5%
14 – 31 Mar 2022 VUB, UA VRT / De Standaard [36] 2,06422.4%22.9%8.7%10.2%15.5%9.4%9.1%1.8%0.5%41.3%58.7%
26 May 2019 Regional election 24.8%18.5%15.4%13.1%10.4%10.1%5.3%2.4%6.3%53.3%46.7%

Wallonia

The graph and the table below show the results for the opinion polls conducted in the Walloon Region, as well as for polls conducted nationwide the part of the results related to the Walloon Region.

Opinion polling for the 2024 Belgian elections (Wallonia).svg
Date(s) conductedPolling firmPublisherSample size PS MR Ecolo PTB LE DéFI OthersLeadGov.Opp.
28 – 31 May 2024 Cluster17 RTL [37] 1,00023.9%23.0%8.0%16.0%17.9%4.0%7.2%0.9%54.9%45.1%
14 – 20 May 2024 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [4] 1,00022.6%22.6%8.8%14.5%18.1%4.3%9.1%0.0%54.0%46.0%
8 - 18 Apr 2024 Kantar La Libre Belgique, RTBF [5] 100425.4%20.8%12.7%16.0%13.9%4.2%7.0%4.6%58.9%41.1%
11 – 18 Mar 2024 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [6] 1,00021.3%20.5%11.9%14.9%16.8%4.8%9.8%0.8%53.7%46.3%
22 Jan – 8 Feb 2024 Kantar Knack / Le Vif [7] 1,00424.3%19.9%13.8%18.4%13.2%4.1%6.4%3.1%58.0%42.0%
4 – 11 Dec 2023 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [9] 1,00023.9%20.0%14.0%14.0%13.8%3.9%10.4% [nb 1] 3.9%57.9%42.1%
10 Sep – 9 Oct 2023 Kantar La Libre Belgique, RTBF [11] 43627.2%20.6%11.6%19.2%11.1%4.5%5.8%6.6%59.4%41.6%
18 – 25 Sep 2023 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [12] 1,00021.8%19.7%14.9%19.8%13.8%2.7%7.3% [nb 2] 2.0%56.4%43.6%
29 May – 6 Jun 2023 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [13] 1,00025.7%19.8%12.7%18.9%10.3%3.8%8.8%5.9%58.2%41.8%
20 – 27 Mar 2023 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [14] 1,00025.5%18.5%12.8%17.6%11.1%4.9%9.6%7.0%56.8%43.2%
16 – 29 Jan 2023 Kantar La Libre Belgique [15] 50225.8%19.7%11.3%20.1%9.3%5.4%8.5%5.7%56.8%43.2%
21 – 29 Nov 2022 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [16] 1,00223.7%20.4%13.1%17.9%9.1%5.3%10.5%3.3%57.2%42.8%
7 – 13 Sep 2022 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [17] 1,00222.9%22.0%13.6%18.4%9.1%5.6%8.0%0.9%58.5%41.5%
6 – 14 Jun 2022 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [18] 1,00825.3%19.2%14.4%19.1%8.8%4.2%9.0%5.9%58.9%41.1%
15 – 22 Mar 2022 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [19] 1,00922.4%20.1%15.0%19.7%9.5%3.7%9.4%2.3%57.7%42.5%
1 – 8 Dec 2021 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [20] 96124.9%22.3%15.5%18.2%8.0%4.2%9.9%2.6%62.7%37.3%
7 – 14 Sep 2021 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [21] 93021.4%20.3%16.7%18.7%10.0%5.1%7.8%1.1%58.4%41.6%
25 May – 1 Jun 2021 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [22] 99224.0%18.7%15.0%19.1%10.8%5.1%7.3%4.9%57.7%42.3%
4 – 9 Mar 2021 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [39] 95822.8%20.1%16.4%19.0%8.7%3.9%9.1%2.7%59.3%40.7%
2 – 8 Dec 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [40] 99523.2%20.6%15.6%17.2%10.3%3.7%9.7%2.6%59.4%40.6%
2 – 8 Oct 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [26] 1,00121.1%19.2%17.8%18.9%9.7%3.8%9.5%1.9%58.1%41.9%
1 Oct 2020 De Croo Government formed with Open Vld, sp.a (currently named Vooruit), cd&v, Groen (Flemish), MR, PS and Ecolo (Francophone)
10 – 15 Jun 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [27] 98623.7%20.5%15.1%18.7%8.1%4.7%9.2%3.2%59.3%40.7%
4 – 9 Mar 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir / De Morgen [29] 97425.5%19.6%15.5%18.6%7.5%5.1%8.2%5.9%60.6%39.4%
29 Nov – 6 Dec 2019 ESOMAR VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [30] 98323.8%20.5%17.2%16.5%8.8%4.7%8.5%3.3%61.5%38.5%
2–10 Sep 2019 ESOMAR VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [31] 99222.9%22.6%16.2%15.5%8.5%5.0%9.3%0.3%61.7%38.3%
26 May 2019 Federal election 26.1%20.5%14.9%13.8%10.7%4.1%9.9% [nb 3] 5.6%61.5%38.5%

Brussels

The graph and the table below show polling results in the Brussels Region (which may be part of a larger, nationwide poll). In September 2022, only polling results for Francophone parties were published for polls conducted for VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir.

Scatter plot with moving average showing the results of the polls in the Brussels Region since the last federal elections. Opinion polling for the 2024 Belgian elections (Brussels).svg
Scatter plot with moving average showing the results of the polls in the Brussels Region since the last federal elections.
Date(s) conductedPolling firmPublisherSample size Ecolo PS MR PTB-
PVDA 		DéFI LE N‑VA Open Vld VB cd&v Groen Vooruit OthersLeadGov.Opp.
28 – 31 May 2024 Cluster17 RTL [41] 50111.6%15.0%22.9%19.8%7.0%7.8%3.2%3.1%
14 – 20 May 2024 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [4] 60012.5%15.2%23.3%19.8%7.2%7.7%3.5%
8 - 18 Apr 2024 Kantar La Libre Belgique, RTBF [5] 80715.5%14.2%22.9%15.4%7.4%5.4%3.8%1.2%5.0%1.6%4.6%1.0%2.0%7.4%61.0%39.0%
11 – 18 Mar 2024 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [6] 60014.7%15.4%21.8%17.5%8.8%6.9%2.2%2.2%3.0%1.3%1.0%1.3%3.9%4.3%57.7%42.3%
22 Jan – 8 Feb 2024 Kantar Knack / Le Vif [7] 60014.2%13.5%17.9%20.8%7.8%5.4%3.8%1.9%5.2%1.2%5.3%1.3%1.3%2.9%55.3%44.7%
4 – 11 Dec 2023 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [9] 60016.8%15.7%18.1%19.3%9.1%7.2%3.4%2.0%3.0%0.5%1.9%0.7%2.3%1.2%55.7%44.3%
10 Sep – 9 Oct 2023 Kantar La Libre Belgique, RTBF [11] 54513.0%18.8%19.7%16.3%6.9%5.1%5.3%3.3%4.2%0.8%4.2%1.3%1.2%0.9%61.1%38.9%
18 – 25 Sep 2023 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [12] 60017.9%18.1%21.9%15.3%8.0%6.5%3.6%1.2%2.3%0.6%0.8%1.8%2.0%3.8%62.3%37.7%
29 May – 6 Jun 2023 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [13] 60018.1%18.6%19.9%17.6%8.3%4.3%2.9%1.4%3.1%0.9%1.3%0.6%3.0%1.3%60.8%39.2%
20 – 27 Mar 2023 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [42] 60015.7%16.8%19.8%19.4%10.2%5.1%3.0%0.8%3.0%0.5%1.8%2.0%1.9%0.4%57.4%42.6%
16 – 29 Jan 2023 Kantar La Libre Belgique [15] 49316.0%18.0%16.8%16.7%9.6%2.9%4.5%1.2%2.6%1.0%6.1%1.6%3.1%1.2%60.7%39.3%
21 – 29 Nov 2022 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [42] 60113.0%21.6%20.3%16.1%10.4%6.1%2.8%0.8%2.5%1.8%1.0%0.3%3.3%1.3%58.8%41.2%
7 – 13 Sep 2022 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [17] 60015.8%22.7%21.2%12.7%9.6%3.8%1.6%
6 – 14 Jun 2022 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [18] 53618.0%19.1%22.0%13.6%10.8%3.8%2.8%2.0%2.2%0.6%1.4%0.9%2.8%2.9%64.0%36.0%
15 – 22 Mar 2022 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [19] 48520.3%15.1%19.9%16.4%10.8%4.9%3.5%1.6%2.3%0.2%3.0%1.0%1.0%0.4%61.1%38.9%
1 – 8 Dec 2021 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [43] 48519.3%15.1%17.4%15.1%11.3%5.2%3.0%2.9%3.3%1.3%0.6%0.3%5.2%1.9%56.9%43.1%
7 – 14 Sep 2021 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [44] 48519.1%18.6%18.5%15.1%10.4%3.7%2.6%2.4%1.5%0.6%2.5%0.8%4.2%0.5%62.5%37.7%
25 May – 1 Jun 2021 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [22] 52318.0%17.6%17.9%15.0%11.1%5.3%4.1%2.5%3.1%0.7%2.8%0.5%1.4%0.1%60.0%40.0%
4 – 9 Mar 2021 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [39] 55718.2%16.8%16.4%16.0%11.4%4.0%2.9%2.8%3.2%1.5%2.4%1.1%3.3%1.4%59.2%40.8%
2 – 8 Dec 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [40] 53319.5%16.8%15.0%15.1%11.5%5.0%4.9%1.9%3.7%0.3%2.8%1.4%0.6%2.7%57.7%42.3%
2 – 8 Oct 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [26] 59321.6%19.1%14.0%12.1%11.3%3.2%4.8%2.4%3.7%1.7%3.2%2.3%0.6%2.5%64.3%35.7%
1 October 2020 De Croo Government formed with Open Vld, sp.a (currently named Vooruit), cd&v, Groen (Flemish), MR, PS and Ecolo (Francophone)
10 – 15 Jun 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [27] 58019.1%18.2%17.4%12.6%10.9%4.8%4.9%1.4%3.7%1.5%1.8%0.7%3.0%0.9%60.1%39.9%
4 – 9 Mar 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [29] 53120.3%20.5%17.6%12.2%10.0%3.8%4.1%0.9%3.3%0.9%1.4%1.4%3.6%0.2%63%37%
29 Nov – 6 Dec 2019 ESOMAR VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [30] 52619.7%18.9%16.2%12.5%12.0%5.1%4.8%2.2%1.9%0.9%2.8%0.5%2.2%0.8%61.2%38.8%
2–10 Sep 2019 ESOMAR VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [31] 54821.4%19.2%16.4%11.0%11.0%4.9%3.6%2.4%2.5%0.2%3.1%1.0%3.3%2.2%63.7%36.3%
26 May 2019 Federal election [45] 21.6%20.0%17.5%12.3%10.3%5.8%3.2%2.3%1.6%1.3%EcoloPS4.3% [nb 3] 1.6%62.7%37.3%

Seat projections

The graph and table below shows seat projections for the Chamber of Representatives according to a reporting newspaper or polling firm.

Opinion polling for the 2024 Belgian federal election (Seats).svg

By party

76 seats needed for majority
Date(s) conductedPolling firmPublishers N‑VA PS VB MR Ecolo cd&v Open
Vld 		PVDA-
PTB 		Vooruit Groen LE DéFI OthersLeadGov.Opp.Lead
9 june 2024 Federal election 241620203117151361410476741
28 – 31 May 2024 Cluster17 RTL [46] 201826184107201151010673774
14 – 20 May 2024 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [47] [ under discussion ]201626184107191251210672786
8 - 18 Apr 2024 Kantar La Libre Belgique / RTBF [48] 191826148101120104910675750
11 – 18 Mar 2024 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [49] [ under discussion ]201627159116191051020772786
22 Jan – 8 Feb 2024 Kantar Knack / Le Vif [50] 191625151010621137710477734
4 – 11 Dec 2023 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [51] 211825141010519117820475750
10 Sep – 9 Oct 2023 Kantar La Libre Belgique [52] 211921169106201665100826913
18 – 25 Sep 2023 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [53] 191626161010620144810676742
29 May – 6 Jun 2023 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [54] 2020221510106211654101826814
20 – 27 Mar 2023 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [42] 2020241410108181455204836716
16 – 29 Jan 20233rd party analysis based on Kantar La Libre Belgique [55] 2119241410610171494203826814
21 – 29 Nov 2022 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [16] 20192515987181575205807010
7 – 13 Sep 2022 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [17] 201820171099181574300856520
6 – 14 Jun 2022 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [18] 25192115119720125420478726
15 – 22 Mar 2022 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [19] 231721151210721126420279718
1 – 8 Dec 2021 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [56] 2017241611109191165204807010
7 – 14 Sep 2021 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [57] 20162215131110181094202846618
25 May – 1 Jun 2021 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [58] 2018251412910171175205816912
4 – 9 Mar 2021 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [59] 20162215131111191164202836716
2 – 8 Dec 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [60] 20172515121010171255205816912
2 – 8 Oct 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [61] [62] 21172514141010161254204826814
10 – 15 Jun 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [63] 2019261412109171074206816912
4 – 9 Mar 2020 Ipsos VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [64] 191926141310919784207807010
29 Nov – 6 Dec 2019 ESOMAR VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [65] 20182714131081869520778726
2–10 Sep 2019 ESOMAR VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws / RTL / Le Soir [66] 2117251713111114694204846618
26 May 2019Federal election2520181413121212985205886226

By political family

Below are tallies for each ideological 'group' as well as probable coalitions. In bold on dark grey, if the coalition commands an absolute majority.

Note that "asymetrical" coalitions are now frequent: between 2007 and 2011, PS was part of each cabinet but not sp.a (Vooruit); and between 2014 and 2018, the Michel Government included cd&v but not cdH (LE), as well as the N-VA, of which there is no equivalent in Wallonia.

Coalition seat projections

Opinion polling for the 2024 Belgian federal election (Possible Coalitions).svg

Political family seat projections

Opinion polling for the 2024 Belgian federal election (Political families).svg
Date(s)
conducted		Polling
firm		IdeologiesCoalitions
Far-leftGreensSoc-
Dems		Soc LibsLibsChr Dems [nb 4] Flemish Nation-alistFar-rightLeft-
wing		Big Olive TreeOlive TreePurple-
Green [nb 5] 		Vivaldi (+ LE)National UnityTri-partiteArizonaSunsetPurple-YellowSwedish + LE
[nb 6] 		Centre-
right		Right-
wing
9 June 2024Federal
Elections		159291272524205381636576 (90)114811057880769671
14 - 20 May 2024 Ipsos 199281252220265678596272 (84)10475957073679371
8 - 18 Apr 2024 Kantar 2012281251919266079596575 (84)10372916672638970
1 – 18 Mar 2024 Ipsos 1914262212120275980616172 (82)10268876767628968
22 Jan – 8 Feb 2024 Kantar 2117291211719256784636777(84)10367866569578265
4 – 11 Dec 2023 Ipsos 1917292191821256583646575 (83)10466876869588365
10 Sep – 9 Oct 2023 Kantar 2015351221521217085657282 (87)10872937178587964
18 – 25 Sep 2023 Ipsos 2014301221819266482626676 (84)10370896771598567
29 May – 6 Jun 2023 Ipsos 2115361211420227286657282 (86)10671917077557763
20–27 Mar 2023 Ipsos 1815342221520246782647181 (86)10671916976578166
16–29 Jan 20233rd party analysis based on Kantar 1719332241021246979627682 (86)10767886478557969
21–29 Nov 2022 Ipsos 1816342221320256881637280 (85)10569896776558067
7–13 Sep 2022 Ipsos 1817333261320206881637685 (89)10972926679597966
6–14 Jun 2022 Ipsos 2016312221325216780606978 (82)10766916978608168
15–22 Mar 2022 Ipsos 2118292221423216882616979 (83)10665886674598066
1–8 Dec 2021 Ipsos 1917282251520246479607080 (85)10568886373608469
7–14 Sep 2021 Ipsos 1822262251520226681637384 (88)10866866171608267
25 May – 1 Jun 2021 Ipsos 1719292241420256579627281 (86)10667876373588369
4–9 Mar 2021 Ipsos 1919272261520226580617283 (87)10768886273618368
2–10 Dec 2020 Ipsos 1717292251520256378617181 (86)10669896474608570
2–10 Oct 2020 Ipsos 1619292241421256478627182 (86)10767886474598470
10–15 Jun 2020 Ipsos 1719292231420266579627181 (85)10566866372578369
4–9 Mar 2020 Ipsos 1921262231419266680617080 (84)10563826668568268
29 Nov – 6 Dec 2019 ESOMAR 1822242221520276479616878 (83)10561815966578469
2–10 Sep 2019 ESOMAR 1422232281521255974607384 (88)10966865972678974
26 May 2019Federal
Elections		1221292261725186279677688 (93)12072977180688669

European Parliament election

Dutch-speaking

Date(s) conductedPolling firmPublisherSample size N‑VA
ECR 		VB
ID 		Open Vld
Renew 		cd&v
EPP 		Groen
G/EFA 		Vooruit
S&D 		PVDA
Left 		OthersLead
23 Feb – 5 Mar 2024 Ipsos Euronews [67] 1,50018.7%
3		23.5%
3		12.7%
2		11.5%
1		9.7%
1		13.8%
2		9.3%
1		0.8%
0		4.8%
26 May 2019 European election 22.4%
3		19.1%
3		15.9%
2		14.5%
2		12.4%
1		10.2%
1		4.9%
0		0.5%
0		3.3%

French-speaking

Date(s) conductedPolling firmPublisherSample size PS
S&D 		Ecolo
G/EFA 		MR
Renew 		PTB
Left 		LE
EPP 		DéFI
NI 		OthersLead
23 Feb – 5 Mar 2024 Ipsos Euronews [67] 1,50026.7%
2		12.8%
1		22.8%
2		19.2%
2		11.0%
1		2.8%
0		4.7%
0		3.9%
26 May 2019 European election 26.7%
2		19.9%
2		19.3%
2		14.6%
1		8.9%
1		5.9%
0		4.7%
0		6.8%

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Chez Nous 1.4%, N-VA 1.2% [38]
  2. ↑ Chez Nous 0.3% [38]
  3. 1 2 Includes the People's Party, which dissolved in June 2019 after the elections
  4. ↑ Includes LE, which broke with their Christian democratic tradition on 17 March 2022
  5. ↑ Example of a Purple-Green coalition: Verhofstadt I Government
  6. ↑ Example of a Swedish coalition: Michel I Government

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References

  1. ↑ "VP2024" (in Dutch). 9 June 2024. Retrieved 10 June 2024.
  2. ↑ "DE LAATSTE PEILING. Vlaams Belang blijft de grootste, voor N-VA en Vooruit" (in Dutch). 6 June 2024. Retrieved 6 June 2024.
  3. ↑ Delfosse, RTL info avec Frederic (4 June 2024). "Sondage RTL info-Cluster17: bataille entre le MR et le PS en Wallonie, le Vlaams Belang conforte sa place de futur premier parti en Flandre". RTL Info (in French). Retrieved 4 June 2024.
  4. 1 2 3 "DE GROTE PEILING. Vlaams Belang blijft grootste partij van Vlaanderen, Vooruit profiteert van Conner-effect" (in Dutch). 24 May 2024. Retrieved 24 May 2024.
  5. 1 2 3 "Découvrez les résultats de notre sondage : le Vlaams Belang toujours plus haut, le MR en grande forme à Bruxelles" (in French). 25 April 2024. Retrieved 25 April 2024.
  6. 1 2 3 "DE GROTE PEILING. Vlaams Belang met voorsprong de grootste, Vooruit neemt een duik" (in Dutch). 22 March 2024. Retrieved 24 March 2024.
  7. 1 2 3 "Open Vld verliest helft zetels in Knack-peiling, liberalen duiken in Antwerpen onder kiesdrempel". De Morgen. DPG Media nv. 20 February 2024.
  8. ↑ "Nieuwe peiling zet De Wever opnieuw met twee voeten in de campagne" (in Dutch). 11 March 2024. Retrieved 11 March 2024.
  9. 1 2 3 "DE GROTE PEILING. Open Vld wordt kleinste partij van Vlaanderen, kwart kiest voor Vlaams Belang" (in Dutch). 15 December 2023. Retrieved 15 December 2023.
  10. ↑ "GVA PEILING. De Wever zit federaal Vlaams Belang op de hielen, Vivaldi-partijen boeken verlies van meer dan 6%" (in Dutch). 5 December 2023. Retrieved 6 December 2023.
  11. 1 2 3 "La percée du PTB et du Vlaams Belang, la mauvaise forme d'Ecolo: découvrez les résultats de notre grand sondage politique" (in French). 12 October 2023. Retrieved 12 October 2023.
  12. 1 2 3 "DE GROTE PEILING. Kwart Vlamingen zou voor Vlaams Belang kiezen, malaise voor Open Vld en Groen is enorm" (in Dutch). 29 September 2023. Retrieved 29 September 2023.
  13. 1 2 3 "DE GROTE PEILING. Slechtste resultaat voor Open Vld ooit, Vlaams Belang blijft de grootste partij van Vlaanderen" (in Dutch). 9 June 2023. Retrieved 9 June 2023.
  14. 1 2 "DE GROTE PEILING. Kwart van Vlamingen zou voor Vlaams Belang stemmen, beste peiling in anderhalf jaar voor CD&V" (in Dutch). 31 March 2023. Retrieved 31 March 2023.
  15. 1 2 3 "Notre sondage politique : le Vlaams Belang triomphe en Flandre, le PTB enregistre la plus grande progression en Wallonie" (in French). 16 February 2023. Retrieved 16 February 2023.
  16. 1 2 3 "DE GROTE PEILING. Een kwart van de Vlamingen stemt voor Vlaams Belang, Conner Rousseau wordt de populairste politicus van Vlaanderen" (in Dutch). 2 December 2022. Retrieved 2 December 2022.
  17. 1 2 3 4 "DE GROTE PEILING. Vooruit scoort historisch hoog, Vlaams Belang wordt nipt de grootste partij van Vlaanderen" (in Dutch). 16 September 2022. Retrieved 16 September 2022.
  18. 1 2 3 4 Roelandt, Astrid (17 June 2022). "GROTE PEILING. Open Vld op laagste peil ooit, N-VA bijna terug op verkiezingsresultaat" (in Dutch). Retrieved 17 June 2022.
  19. 1 2 3 4 "DE GROTE PEILING. N-VA weer nipt de grootste partij van Vlaanderen, Vlaams Belang volgt op korte afstand". Het Laatste Nieuws (Dutch). 25 March 2022.
  20. 1 2 "DE GROTE PEILING. Vlaams Belang blijft de grootste partij in Vlaanderen, PS sterkste stijger in Wallonië". Het Laatste Nieuws (Dutch). 10 December 2021.
  21. 1 2 "DE GROTE PEILING. Vlaams Belang blijft de grootste partij in Vlaanderen, PS krijgt klappen in Wallonië". Het Laatste Nieuws (Dutch). 18 September 2021.
  22. 1 2 3 "DE GROTE PEILING. Vlaams Belang blijft de grootste partij, cd&v op dieptepunt met 10 procent". Het Laatste Nieuws (Dutch). 4 June 2021.
  23. ↑ "Vlaams Belang blijft de grootste partij, premier Alexander De Croo (Open VLD) de populairste: dit zegt "De Stemming"". VRT NWS (Dutch). 22 May 2021.
  24. ↑ "DE GROTE PEILING. Vlaams Belang zakt maar blijft de grootste partij". Het Laatste Nieuws (Dutch). 12 March 2021.
  25. ↑ "DE GROTE PEILING. Vlaams Belang blijft de grootste, N-VA zakt net onder de 20%". Het Laatste Nieuws (Dutch). 11 December 2020.
  26. 1 2 3 "De Grote Peiling. Vlaams Belang blijft de grootste partij, sp.a blijft 'vooruit' gaan". Het Laatste Nieuws (Dutch). 20 October 2020.
  27. 1 2 3 "GROTE PEILING. Vlaams Belang blijft afgetekend de grootste, sp.a klimt naar derde plaats". Het Laatste Nieuws (Dutch). 19 June 2020.
  28. ↑ "De Stemming: de kiezer ruilt het centrum meer en meer in voor de uitersten". VRT NWS (Dutch). 23 May 2020.
  29. 1 2 3 "Grote Peiling: Vlaams Belang wordt de grootste, ook PVDA scoort, N-VA zakt richting 20%". Het Laatste Nieuws (Dutch). 14 March 2020.
  30. 1 2 3 "De Grote Peiling. Vlaams Belang stijgt tot ongekende hoogtes, Open Vld afgestraft". Het Laatste Nieuws (Dutch). 13 December 2019.
  31. 1 2 3 "De Grote Peiling. Vlaams Belang wipt over N-VA naar eerste plaats, dramatische score voor cd&v en sp.a". Het Laatste Nieuws (Dutch). 13 September 2019.
  32. ↑ "NIEUWE PEILING. Vlaams Belang en N-VA halen samen meerderheid in Vlaams Parlement" (in Dutch). 17 May 2024. Retrieved 17 May 2024.
  33. ↑ "De Stemming 2024; Vlaams Belang peilde nooit hoger, N-VA zakt voor het eerst onder de 20 procent". De Standaard. 2 March 2024.
  34. ↑ "PEILING. Vooruit gaat achteruit na heisa rond Conner Rousseau, Vlaams Belang heeft wind in de zeilen" (in Dutch). 4 December 2023. Retrieved 4 December 2023.
  35. ↑ "Peiling "De Stemming": Vlaams Belang blijft de grootste, Vooruit gaat meest vooruit en PVDA wordt vierde partij". VRTNWS. 12 May 2023.
  36. ↑ "cd&v verliest bijna helft van kiezers en wordt de kleinste partij van Vlaanderen". VRTNWS. 6 May 2022.
  37. ↑ Delfosse, RTL info avec Frederic (4 June 2024). "Sondage RTL info-Cluster17: bataille entre le MR et le PS en Wallonie, le Vlaams Belang conforte sa place de futur premier parti en Flandre". RTL Info (in French). Retrieved 4 June 2024.
  38. 1 2 David Coppi (15 December 2023). "Grand Baromètre : le PTB caracole à Bruxelles et dégringole en Wallonie (infographies)" . Le Soir . Retrieved 16 December 2023. Mais d'autres électeurs envisagent de donner leur voix à la N-VA (1,2 %) si elle présente des listes au sud du pays et également à « Chez nous », mouvement d'extrême droite (1,4 % contre 0,3 % en septembre) ainsi qu'à d'autres formations comme le Parti Populaire.
  39. 1 2 "Grand Baromètre: le PTB monte en puissance". Le Soir (French). 12 March 2021.
  40. 1 2 "Grand Baromètre: le gouvernement De Croo fait chuter la N-VA sous les 20%". Le Soir (French). 11 December 2020.
  41. ↑ Delfosse, RTL info avec Frederic (4 June 2024). "Sondage RTL info-Cluster17: bataille entre le MR et le PS en Wallonie, le Vlaams Belang conforte sa place de futur premier parti en Flandre". RTL Info (in French). Retrieved 4 June 2024.
  42. 1 2 3 "Ipsos: De Grote Peiling – Le Grand Baromètre" (PDF). Het Laatste Nieuws (in Dutch and French). 31 March 2023. Retrieved 1 April 2023.
  43. ↑ "Grand Baromètre: le PS décroche à Bruxelles mais redécolle en Wallonie". Le Soir (French). 10 December 2021.
  44. ↑ "Grand Baromètre: le PS chute en Wallonie, la N-VA et le Belang baissent en Flandre". Le Soir (French). 18 September 2021.
  45. ↑ "Federale verkiezingen 2019: alle uitslagen". 26 May 2019. Retrieved 10 December 2019.
  46. ↑ Delfosse, RTL info avec Frederic (4 June 2024). "Sondage RTL info-Cluster17: bataille entre le MR et le PS en Wallonie, le Vlaams Belang conforte sa place de futur premier parti en Flandre". RTL Info (in French). Retrieved 4 June 2024.
  47. ↑ "seat projections". 24 May 2024.
  48. ↑ "seat projections". 25 April 2024.
  49. ↑ "seat projections". 22 March 2024.
  50. ↑ "seat projections". 20 February 2024.
  51. ↑ "seat projections". 16 December 2023.
  52. ↑ "seat projections". 12 October 2023.
  53. ↑ "seat projections". 29 September 2023.
  54. ↑ "Extreme droite et extreme gauche conditionnent la campagne de 2024". 10 June 2023.
  55. ↑ "Opinion Poll by Kantar for La Libre Belgique, 16–29 January 2023". 17 February 2023. Retrieved 17 February 2023.
  56. ↑ "De Grote Peiling. Regering-De Croo verliest 7 zetels, maar behoudt meerderheid". 11 December 2021.
  57. ↑ "BELGIUM · Ipsos poll 17/09/2021: VB largest party in Flanders (23.6%), PS in Wallonia (21.4%), Ecolo in Brussels (19.1%)". 17 September 2021.
  58. ↑ "Amper helft Groen- en Vooruitkiezers heeft vertrouwen in regering, Vivaldi verliest zes zetels in peiling". 5 June 2021.
  59. ↑ "Seat projections". 12 March 2021.
  60. ↑ "#GrandBaromètre IProjection en sièges à la Chambre". 12 December 2020.
  61. ↑ "De Grote Peiling. Regering-De Croo verliest 5 zetels, maar behoudt ruime meerderheid". 12 October 2020.
  62. ↑ "Grand Baromètre: le gouvernement De Croo serait moins représentatif si les élections avaient lieu demain". 12 October 2020.
  63. ↑ "#GrandBaromètre Ipsos RTL-Soir-HLN: The Projection and Sessions à la Chambre". 14 March 2020.
  64. ↑ "Les francophones bien à gauche, La Flandre à droite". Le Soir (French). 14 March 2020.
  65. ↑ "Le Vlaams Belang s'envole, la Flandre à droite toute". Le Soir (French). 15 December 2019.
  66. ↑ "Grand Baromètre: le Vlaams Belang et la N-VA obtiennent la majorité flamande à la Chambre (infographie)". Le Soir (French). 14 September 2019.
  67. 1 2 "Euronews-Ipsos Poll". 19 March 2024. Retrieved 17 April 2024.
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