In the leadup to the June 2015 general election, various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.
The results tend to vary widely, as described in opinion polls in Turkey.
Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. (Note that, pre 2015 results only indicate the last date of the survey's fieldwork, and not the whole interval.) If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. For the highest percentage figure in each polling survey, the background is shaded in the leading party's colour. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty.
Date | Pollster | Sample | AKP | CHP | MHP | HDP | ANAPAR | Others | Lead | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7 Jun | Election results Domestic vote only | – | 40.7 | 25.1 | 16.5 | 13.0 | 0.1 | 4.6 | 15.6 | |
2 Jun | Gezici [1] [2] | 4,860 | 38.5 | 28.5 | 16.5 | 12.5 | – | 3.0 | 10.0 | |
30 May – 1 Jun | ORC [3] | 3,850 | 46.0 | 25.3 | 15.5 | 9.0 | – | 4.2 | 20.7 | |
30 – 31 May | Konda [4] | 3,543 | 41.0 | 27.8 | 14.8 | 12.6 | – | 3.8 | 13.2 | |
28 May | A pre-election ban on opinion polling comes into effect, ten days before polling day [5] | |||||||||
27 May | ANAR [6] | – | 40.5 | 26.0 | 17.0 | 11.0 | – | 5.5 | 14.5 | |
27 May | Aksoy [7] | – | 42.6 | 26.2 | 16.2 | 10.6 | – | 4.2 | 16.4 | |
18 – 26 May | MAK [8] | 2,155 | 43.6 | 24.9 | 16.4 | 9.9 | – | 5.2 | 18.7 | |
25 May | SONAR [9] | 3,000 | 41.0 | 26.0 | 18.1 | 10.4 | – | 4.5 | 15.0 | |
23 – 24 May | Gezici [10] | 4,860 | 39.3 | 28.5 | 17.2 | 12.4 | – | 2.6 | 10.8 | |
21 – 24 May | Andy-Ar [11] | 4,166 | 41.9 | 25.8 | 16.0 | 10.7 | – | 5.6 | 16.1 | |
18 – 24 May | KamuAR [12] | 5,223 | 35.3 | 27.9 | 23.1 | 7.7 | – | 6.0 | 7.4 | |
16 – 24 May | Denge [13] | 11,859 | 44.6 | 25.5 | 16.1 | 10.5 | – | 3.3 | 19.1 | |
17 – 23 May | Politics [14] | 4,200 | 45.2 | 26.3 | 15.4 | 9.6 | – | 3.5 | 18.9 | |
11 – 22 May | SAMER [15] | 4,150 | 43.3 | 27.1 | 15.3 | 11.3 | – | 3.0 | 16.2 | |
15 – 21 May | Vera [16] | 1,509 | 43.5 | 27.1 | 16.0 | 9.6 | – | 3.9 | 16.4 | |
21 May | Konda [17] | – | 40.5 | 28.7 | 14.4 | 11.5 | – | 4.9 | 11.8 | |
15 – 20 May | AKAM [18] | 2,164 | 38.9 | 28.1 | 17.6 | 11.8 | – | 3.6 | 10.8 | |
8 – 11 May | MetroPoll [19] | 2,976 | 42.8 | 27.0 | 17.1 | 9.2 | – | 3.9 | 15.8 | |
9 – 10 May | Gezici [20] [21] | 4,860 | 38.2 | 30.1 | 17.1 | 10.5 | – | 4.1 | 8.1 | |
6 – 7 May | CHP [22] | 1,618 | 39.3 | 28.1 | 17.8 | 10.3 | – | 4.6 | 11.2 | |
4 – 7 May | ORC [23] | 2,450 | 47.5 | 23.9 | 15.0 | 8.1 | – | 5.5 | 23.6 | |
3 – 7 May | Denge [24] | 5,073 | 45.6 | 25.5 | 15.1 | 9.5 | – | 4.3 | 20.1 | |
2 – 7 May | Benenson SG [25] | – | 39.0 | 31.6 | 14.7 | 10.5 | – | 4.2 | 7.4 | |
30 Apr–7 May | Konsensus [26] | 1,500 | 43.9 | 26.7 | 15.8 | 9.7 | – | 3.9 | 17.2 | |
1 – 5 May | AKAM [27] | 2,262 | 38.3 | 27.3 | 18.1 | 11.8 | – | 4.5 | 11.0 | |
3 May | The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) announces their manifesto | |||||||||
24 – 27 Apr | AKAM [28] | 3,214 | 38.1 | 28.1 | 17.8 | 12.6 | – | 3.4 | 10.0 | |
20 – 27 Apr | KamuAR [29] | 4,382 | 36.2 | 26.7 | 22.4 | 6.7 | – | 8.0 | 9.5 | |
20 – 26 Apr | Gezici [30] | 4,860 | 38.1 | 28.5 | 18.0 | 11.0 | – | 4.4 | 9.6 | |
18 – 25 Apr | SONAR [31] | 3,086 | 43.0 | 26.1 | 17.2 | 9.6 | – | 4.1 | 16.9 | |
18 – 25 Apr | MAK [32] [33] | 5,400 | 45.15 | 24.79 | 15.25 | 9.15 | – | 5.66 | 20.36 | |
21 Apr | The Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) announces their manifesto | |||||||||
18 – 21 Apr | MetroPoll [34] | 2,824 | 42.5 | 26.4 | 17.6 | 10.2 | – | 3.3 | 16.1 | |
19 Apr | The Republican People's Party (CHP) announces their manifesto | |||||||||
11–17 Apr | AKAM [35] | 5,160 | 40.7 | 25.5 | 18.0 | 11.4 | – | 4.4 | 15.2 | |
15 Apr | The Justice and Development Party (AKP) announces their manifesto | |||||||||
9–13 Apr | ORC [36] | 4,200 | 48.3 | 23.7 | 14.4 | 8.9 | – | 4.7 | 24.6 | |
9–12 Apr | Gezici [37] | – | 39.2 | 28.1 | 16.9 | 11.3 | – | 4.6 | 11.1 | |
12 Apr | MetroPoll [38] | 2,500 | 41.7 | 27.7 | 17.4 | 10.4 | – | 2.8 | 14.0 | |
4 Apr | Andy-Ar [39] | – | 43.7 | 23.5 | 17.6 | 10.4 | – | 4.8 | 20.2 | |
4 Apr | GENAR [39] | – | 47.7 | 25.0 | 13.5 | 10.9 | – | 2.9 | 22.7 | |
30 Mar | Denge [40] | – | 47.0 | 26.0 | 14.6 | 8.8 | – | 3.6 | 21.0 | |
18–24 Mar | ORC [41] | 3,178 | 50.3 | 23.0 | 14.1 | 8.6 | – | 4.0 | 27.3 | |
16 Mar | MAK [42] | 5,000 | 47.7 | 25.3 | 14.2 | 9.2 | – | 3.7 | 22.4 | |
12–21 Mar | KamuAR [43] | 8,173 | 35.6 | 27.2 | 21.8 | 7.2 | – | 8.2 | 8.4 | |
7–8 Mar | Gezici [44] | 4,860 | 39.3 | 29.6 | 17.7 | 11.4 | – | 2.0 | 9.7 | |
4–7 Mar | SONAR [45] | 3,000 | 40.0 | 27.1 | 18.0 | 10.1 | – | 4.8 | 12.9 | |
4–7 Mar | ORC [46] | 3,160 | 50.0 | 23.2 | 13.5 | 8.4 | – | 4.9 | 26.8 | |
27 Feb | GENAR [47] [48] | 5,202 | 47.7 | 25.1 | 13.4 | 8.9 | – | 4.9 | 22.6 | |
15 Feb | The Workers' Party (İP) is succeeded by the Patriotic Party (VP) | |||||||||
14–15 Feb | Gezici [49] [50] [51] | 3,840 | 39.1 | 28.7 | 18.1 | 9.5 | 0.1 | 4.5 | 10.7 | |
11–14 Feb | Metropoll [52] | 2,694 | 43.1 | 27.0 | 16.4 | 9.8 | – | 3.7 | 16.1 | |
10–14 Feb | ORC [53] [54] | 4,650 | 49.8 | 23.0 | 13.9 | 8.9 | – | 4.4 | 26.8 | |
3–8 Feb | Andy-AR [55] | 2,263 | 45.2 | 25.6 | 16.5 | 9.2 | – | 3.5 | 19.6 | |
3–8 Feb | MAK [56] | 5,454 | 47.6 | 24.8 | 14.3 | 8.0 | – | 5.3 | 22.8 | |
Jan | KONDA [57] [58] | ? | 45.4 | 23.3 | 15.1 | 10.6 | – | 5.6 | 22.1 | |
26 Jan | MPs Ercan Cengiz and Birgül Ayman Güler both resign from the CHP, with Cengiz joining the Centre Party | |||||||||
19–23 Jan | Pollmark [59] | 5,000 | 49.4 | 23.5 | 15.0 | 8.0 | – | 4.1 | 25.9 | |
17–20 Jan | Metropoll [60] [61] | 2,759 | 44.9 | 26.9 | 14.6 | 9.3 | – | 4.3 | 18.0 | |
15–19 Jan | ORC [62] [63] | 1,720 | 48.6 | 23.3 | 13.5 | 8.2 | – | 6.4 | 25.3 | |
17–18 Jan | Gezici [64] | 3,600 | 39.8 | 29.6 | 17.3 | 7.3 | 0.4 | 5.6 | 10.2 | |
12 Jan | SONAR [65] | 3,000 | 38.1 | 27.8 | 17.6 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 10.3 | |
5–10 Jan | MAK [66] [67] [68] | 5,400 | 48.4 | 25.4 | 14.0 | 6.8 | – | 5.2 | 23.0 | |
1–10 Jan | TÜSİAR [69] | 4,153 | 51.4 | 22.6 | 14.2 | 8.0 | – | 3.8 | 28.8 | |
Date | Pollster | Sample | Lead | |||||||
AKP | CHP | MHP | HDP | ANAPAR | Others |
Date | Pollster | Sample | AKP | CHP | MHP | HDP | ANAPAR | Others | Lead | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dec | KONDA [57] | ? | 47.5 | 25.0 | 14.9 | 8.0 | – | 4.6 | 22.5 | |
24–31 Dec | ANAR [70] | 5,190 | 47.0 | 25.0 | 14.0 | 7.8 | – | 6.2 | 22.0 | |
15–20 Dec | ORC [71] | 3,860 | 49.4 | 23.0 | 13.1 | 7.9 | – | 6.6 | 26.4 | |
4–14 Dec | KHU [72] [note 1] | 1,000 | 47.1 | 26.2 | 16.0 | 10.2 | – | 0.6 | 20.9 | |
14 Dec | KamuAR [73] [74] | 4,177 | 38.5 | 27.1 | 21.6 | 6.7 | – | 6.1 | 12.1 | |
4–8 Dec | GENAR [75] | 5,115 | 48.2 | 25.0 | 14.1 | 9.0 | – | 3.7 | 23.2 | |
1–5 Dec | MAK [76] [77] | 10,800 | 50.0 | 25.1 | 15.0 | 4.5 | – | 5.4 | 24.9 | |
1 Dec 2014 | ORC [77] [78] | 3,100 | 48.5 | 23.1 | 13.7 | 8.0 | – | 6.7 | 25.4 | |
28 Nov 2014 | SONAR [79] | 3,025 | 37.17 | 27.01 | 17.13 | 6.69 | 8.04 | 3.96 | 10.16 | |
14 Nov 2014 | ||||||||||
3 Nov 2014 | MAK [80] | 10,800 | 51.1 | 25.6 | 14.1 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 25.5 | ||
25 Oct 2014 | Gezici [81] | 5,292 | 43.3 | 28.7 | 18.5 | – | – | 14.6 | ||
25 Oct 2014 | ORC [82] | 11,353 | 47.3 | 24.6 | 13.5 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 23.7 | ||
24 Oct 2014 | Optimar [83] | 5,200 | 50.6 | 24.7 | 14.5 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 25.9 | ||
23 Oct 2014 | Gezici [84] | 3,292 | 41.4 | 27.4 | 19.7 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 14.0 | ||
22 Oct 2014 | MetroPoll [85] | 2,752 | 47.5 | 26.7 | 15.7 | 8.3 | 1.8 | 20.8 | ||
20 Oct 2014 | Andy-Ar [86] | 2,037 | 46.4 | 24.8 | 14.3 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 21.6 | ||
14 Oct 2014 | Pollmark [87] | 5,071 | 50.4 | 24.4 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 26.0 | ||
23 Sep 2014 | Optimar [83] | 5,200 | 50.6 | 24.7 | 14.5 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 25.9 | ||
20 Sep 2014 | ||||||||||
15 Sep 2014 | ANAR [88] | 5,200 | 51.7 | 24.7 | 12.1 | 8.3 | 3.2 | 27.0 | ||
10 Sep 2014 | ORC [89] | 2,312 | 47.4 | 24.3 | 15.0 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 23.1 | ||
28 Aug 2014 | ||||||||||
19 Aug 2014 | Andy-Ar [90] | 1,897 | 45.6 | 24.3 | 16.8 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 21.3 | ||
14 Aug 2014 | MetroPoll [91] | – | 44.1 | 26.0 | 16.0 | – | – | 18.1 | ||
13 Aug 2014 | ORC [92] | 2,750 | 47.1 | 25.0 | 14.2 | 10.2 | 3.5 | 22.1 | ||
10 Aug 2014 | Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is elected President with 51.79% of the vote | |||||||||
22 Jul 2014 | TÜSİAR [93] | 4,123 | 50.1 | 27.3 | 14.2 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 22.8 | ||
17 Jul 2014 | Andy-AR [94] | 3,216 | 48.8 | 25.2 | 15.2 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 23.6 | ||
28 Apr 2014 | MAK [95] | 10,440 | 50.1 | 23.0 | 14.0 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 27.1 | ||
30 May 2014 | Gezici [96] | 3,292 | 44.5 | 27.5 | 18.6 | 8.1 | 1.3 | 17.0 | ||
6 May 2014 | ORC [97] | 5,100 | 49.1 | 24.8 | 16.3 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 24.3 | ||
30 Mar 2014 | 2014 local elections | – | 42.9 | 26.3 | 17.8 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 16.6 | ||
18 Mar 2014 | SONAR [98] [99] | 15,948 | 39.0 | 30.0 | – | – | – | 9.0 | ||
17 Mar 2014 | AKP [100] | – | 29.7 | 33.3 | 21.3 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 3.6 | ||
28 Feb 2014 | Gezici [101] | 5,292 | 39.7 | 31.4 | 18.2 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 8.3 | ||
Date | Pollster | Sample | Lead | |||||||
AKP | CHP | MHP | HDP | ANAPAR | Others |
Date | Pollster | Sample | AKP | CHP | MHP | HDP | ANAPAR | Others | Lead | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
17 Dec 2013 | A ₺100bn government corruption scandal occurs and Fethullah Gülen withdraws support for the AKP | |||||||||
22 Sep 2013 | Gezici [102] | 5,292 | 42.5 | 27.3 | 18.1 | 9.5 | 2.6 | 15.2 | ||
1 Sep 2013 | ORC [103] [104] | 3,100 | 49.2 | 26.5 | 14.9 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 22.7 | ||
24 Jun 2013 | Konsensus [105] | 1,500 | 47.1 | 30.9 | 14.6 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 16.2 | ||
30 May 2013 | ||||||||||
13 Apr 2013 | Gezici [106] | 2,646 | 44.1 | 27.5 | 17.2 | 9.2 | 2.0 | 16.6 | ||
6 Apr 2013 | GENAR [107] | 3,000 | 50.2 | 25.2 | 13.7 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 25.0 | ||
1 Jan 2013 | O&A [108] | 2,614 | 44.6 | 30.2 | 15.8 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 14.4 | ||
Date | Pollster | Sample | Lead | |||||||
AKP | CHP | MHP | HDP | ANAPAR | Others |
Date | Pollster | Sample | AKP | CHP | MHP | HDP | ANAPAR | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
30 Dec 2012 | ORC [109] | – | 48.2 | 27.4 | 14.1 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 20.8 | |
12 Dec 2012 | Konsensus [110] | 1,501 | 50.7 | 27.7 | 12.8 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 23.0 | |
24 Nov 2012 | Gezici [111] [112] | 8,460 | 45.9 | 26.1 | 17.1 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 19.8 | |
15 Nov 2012 | SONAR [113] | 2,220 | 47.3 | 25.2 | 15.2 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 22.1 | |
12 Oct 2012 | GENAR [114] | – | 51.2 | 26.5 | 12.4 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 24.7 | |
6 Sep 2012 | Gezici [115] [116] | 6,460 | 46.3 | 26.4 | 17.7 | – | – | 25.6 | |
27 Aug 2012 | Andy-Ar [117] [118] | 3,251 | 49.7 | 20.7 | 17.1 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 29.0 | |
11 Jul 2012 | SDE [119] | 2,155 | 49.0 | 25.9 | 14.1 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 23.1 | |
30 May 2012 | ORC [120] | 5,000 | 51.7 | 24.7 | 12.4 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 27.0 | |
31 Apr 2012 | ORC [121] | 5,670 | 54.7 | 19.3 | 15.8 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 35.4 | |
13 Apr 2012 | GENAR [122] | 2,220 | 51.3 | 25.7 | 13.2 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 25.6 | |
30 Mar 2012 | ORC [123] | 5,000 | 55.2 | 19.0 | 14.4 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 36.2 | |
3 Mar 2012 | Konsensus [124] | 1,505 | 51.7 | 27.7 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 24.0 | |
Date | Pollster | Sample | Lead | ||||||
AKP | CHP | MHP | HDP | ANAPAR | Others |
Date | Pollster | Sample | AKP | CHP | MHP | BDP | ANAPAR | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
19 Dec 2011 | SONAR [125] [126] | 3,000 | 54.8 | 19.5 | 16.1 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 35.3 | |
18 Dec 2011 | Konsensus [127] | 1,500 | 50.2 | 27.1 | 12.0 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 23.1 | |
12 Jun 2011 | 2011 election | – | 49.83 | 25.98 | 13.01 | 5.67 [128] | 11.18 | 23.85 | |
Date | Pollster | Sample | Lead | ||||||
AKP | CHP | MHP | BDP | ANAPAR | Others |
Date | Pollster | Sample | AKP | CHP | MHP | HDP | Majority | Notes |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7 June | Election results | – | 258 / 550 | 132 / 550 | 80 / 550 | 80 / 550 | Hung | |
? | Metropoll [129] | – | 260 / 550 | 142 / 550 | 81 / 550 | 67 / 550 | Hung | Poll applied to election simulator in http://secimharitasi.com/milletvekili-dagilimi-hesapla |
2 – 3 June | A&G Research [130] | 2,976 | 265 / 550 | 138 / 550 | 78 / 550 | 69 / 550 | Hung | Poll applied to election simulator in http://secimharitasi.com/milletvekili-dagilimi-hesapla |
2 June | Gezici [1] | 4,860 | 242 / 550 | 151 / 550 | 85 / 550 | 72 / 550 | Hung | Poll applied to election simulator in http://secimharitasi.com/milletvekili-dagilimi-hesapla |
2 June | SONAR [131] | – | 257 / 550 | 134 / 550 | 100 / 550 | 59 / 550 | Hung | Poll applied to election simulator in http://secimharitasi.com/milletvekili-dagilimi-hesapla |
30 – 31 May | KONDA [4] | 3,543 | 261 / 550 | 144 / 550 | 73 / 550 | 72 / 550 | Hung | Poll applied to election simulator in http://secimharitasi.com/milletvekili-dagilimi-hesapla |
27 May | ANAR [6] | – | 263 / 550 | 136 / 550 | 89 / 550 | 62 / 550 | Hung | Poll applied to election simulator in http://secimharitasi.com/milletvekili-dagilimi-hesapla |
25 May | SONAR [9] | 3,000 | 257 / 550 | 134 / 550 | 100 / 550 | 59 / 550 | Hung | Poll applied to election simulator in http://secimharitasi.com/milletvekili-dagilimi-hesapla |
23 – 24 May | Gezici [10] | 4,860 | 257 / 550 | 134 / 550 | 86 / 550 | 70 / 550 | Hung | Poll applied to election simulator in http://secimharitasi.com/milletvekili-dagilimi-hesapla |
21 – 24 May | Andy-Ar [11] | 4,166 | 271 / 550 | 136 / 550 | 83 / 550 | 60 / 550 | Hung | Poll applied to election simulator in http://secimharitasi.com/milletvekili-dagilimi-hesapla |
21 May | Konda [132] | – | 260 / 550 | 149 / 550 | 71 / 550 | 70 / 550 | Hung | Poll applied to election simulator in http://secimharitasi.com/milletvekili-dagilimi-hesapla |
9 – 10 May | Gezici [133] | 1,500 | 236 / 550 | 163 / 550 | 92 / 550 | 59 / 550 | Hung | Poll applied to election simulator in http://secimharitasi.com/milletvekili-dagilimi-hesapla |
6 – 7 May | CHP [22] | 1,618 | 232 / 550 | 151 / 550 | 104 / 550 | 63 / 550 | Hung | |
30 Apr–7 May | Konsensus [134] | 1,500 | 277 / 550 | 138 / 550 | 75 / 550 | 60 / 550 | 4 | If the HDP surpasses the 10% threshold |
331 / 550 | 142 / 550 | 77 / 550 | 0 / 550 | 112 | If the HDP falls below the 10% threshold | |||
24–27 Apr 2015 | AKAM [135] | 3,124 | 238 / 550 | 142 / 550 | 100 / 550 | 68 / 550 | Hung | |
11–17 Apr 2015 | AKAM [33] [136] | 5,160 | 262 / 550 | 133 / 550 | 88 / 550 | 67 / 550 | Hung | Predicts 2 independent MPs (Hakan Şükür and Cemal Kaya) |
12 Apr 2015 | MetroPoll [137] | 2,500 | 261 / 550 | 141 / 550 | 90 / 550 | 58 / 550 | Hung | |
24 Mar 2015 | ORC [138] | 3,176 | 375 / 550 | 125 / 550 | 50 / 550 | 0 / 550 | 200 | Two-thirds majority |
11 Mar 2015 | SONAR [139] [140] | 3,000 | 243 / 550 | 133 / 550 | 116 / 550 | 58 / 550 | Hung | If the HDP surpasses the 10% threshold |
274 / 550 | 148 / 550 | 128 / 550 | 0 / 550 | Hung | If the HDP falls below the 10% threshold | |||
8 Mar 2015 | Gezici [141] | 4,860 | 229 / 550 | 146 / 550 | 118 / 550 | 57 / 550 | Hung | |
12 Jun 2011 | 2011 election | – | 327 / 550 | 135 / 550 | 53 / 550 | 35 / 550 | 104 | |
Date | Pollster | Sample | Majority | Notes | ||||
AKP | CHP | MHP | BDP |
Turkish expats living abroad will have the ability to vote for the first time in a Turkish general election. The following table shows the results of polls conducted in different countries amongst Turkish expat voters.
Date | Country | Pollster | Sample | AKP | CHP | MHP | HDP | ANAPAR | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8–31 May 2015 | Overseas results [142] | – | 50.4 | 15.9 | 9.1 | 21.4 | 0.1 | 3.1 | 29.0 | |
18–26 May 2015 | Germany France Netherlands Belgium Austria | MAK [8] | 1,381 294 240 130 110 | 58.5 | 14.0 | 8.5 | 12.0 | – | 7.0 | 44.5 |
4–12 April 2015 | Germany | Ethno-Forschung [143] | 3,000 | 60.8 | 10.1 | 11.9 | 17.2 | – | 0.0 | 43.6 |
Date | Country | Pollster | Sample | Lead | ||||||
AKP | CHP | MHP | HDP | ANAPAR | Others |
A range of opinion polling regarding several contemporary issues which may affect voter choice has also been conducted by several organisations. The results of these are listed below. Please note that some opinion polls may offer different means of wording questions, or may offer different options.
The following table shows opinion polling for whether the 17–25 December 2014 corruption scandal is seen to be a genuine corruption probe, or a plot against the government.
Date | Pollster | Sample | Corruption investigation | Coup plot | Both | Don't know |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
14 Dec 2014 | KHU [72] | 1,000 | 38.4 | 35.6 | – | 1.3 |
21 Jan 2014 | MetroPoll [74] [144] | 1,545 | 42.2 | 24.0 | 24.9 | 8.9 |
The following table lists opinions on the construction of a new presidential palace, which has raised controversy due to its size, cost, location and legality.
Date | Pollster | Sample | Approve | Disapprove | Don't know |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
14 Dec 2014 | KHU [72] | 1,000 | 37.5 | 48.0 | 14.5 |
14 Dec 2014 | KamuAR [73] [74] | 4,177 | 23.8 | 71.7 | 4.5 |
30 Nov 2014 | MetroPoll [145] | 2,780 | 35.2 | 57.1 | 7.7 |
The AKP government support a presidential system of government as opposed to the current parliamentary system. Should they win above 330 seats in the next parliament, they have voiced intentions to place several proposed constitutional changes to a referendum, which may include the issue of which government system is used in Turkey. The following polls show the support for parliamentary, presidential and semi-presidential systems.
Date | Pollster | Sample | Parliamentary | Presidential | Semi-presidential | Other/Don't know |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
23 February 2015 | Gezici [146] | 3,480 | 76.8 | 23.2 | – | – |
3 February 2015 | A&G [147] [148] | – | 70.0 | 30.0 | – | – |
14 Dec 2014 | KHU [72] | 1,000 | 79.3 | 12.6 | 4.7 | 3.1 |
August 2014 | MetroPOLL [149] | – | 42.2 | 34.3 | – | 23.5 |
May 2014 | MetroPOLL [149] | – | 45.8 | 33.6 | – | 20.5 |
May 2014 | MetroPOLL [149] | – | 45.8 | 33.6 | – | 20.5 |
August 2013 | MetroPOLL [149] | – | 43.8 | 40.1 | – | 21.1 |
20 Jul 2013 | Bilgesam [150] | 2,570 | 67.9 | 32.1 | – | – |
June 2013 | MetroPOLL [149] | – | 42.9 | 30.9 | – | 26.2 |
April 2013 | MetroPOLL [149] | – | 39.8 | 35.2 | – | 25.0 |
11 Mar 2013 | Varyans [151] | 5,068 | 56.5 | 27.6 | 11.4 | 4.5 |
December 2012 | MetroPOLL [149] | – | 44.2 | 36.9 | – | 18.9 |
24 Nov 2012 | Gezici [111] [112] | 8,460 | 57.4 | 42.6 | – | – |
15 Nov 2012 | SONAR [113] | 2,220 | 52.5 | 26.8 | – | 20.7 |
June 2012 | MetroPOLL [149] | – | 37.7 | 43.2 | – | 19.1 |
February 2011 | A&G [152] | 2,516 | 56.3 | 16.0 | 0.8 | 26.9 |
The following table lists opinions on how well the government have managed the Turkish economy.
Date | Pollster | Sample | Approve | Disapprove | Don't know |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
14 Dec 2014 | KHU [72] | 1,000 | 30.0 | 44.4 | 25.6 |
30 Nov 2014 | MetroPoll [145] | 2,780 | 40.2 | 54.4 | 5.5 |
31 Jul 2014 | Pew [153] | 1,001 | 50.0 | 46.0 | 4.0 |
30 Mar 2012 | ORC [123] | 5,000 | 71.6 | 28.4 | – |
Being one of the hardest hit countries in terms of refugees due to the Syrian Civil War, the Turkish government's policy on Syrian refugees has created controversy, especially in the Hatay Province on the Turkish-Syrian border. The following table shows opinion polling on the support of the government in terms of their policy on Syria.
Date | Pollster | Sample | Approve | Disapprove | Don't know |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
14 Dec 2014 | KHU [72] | 1,000 | 21.6 | 53.7 | 24.7 |
30 Nov 2014 | MetroPoll [145] | 2,780 | 28.2 | 66.8 | 4.9 |
24 Nov 2012 | Gezici [111] [112] | 8,460 | 30.9 | 69.1 | – |
6 Sep 2012 | Gezici [115] [116] | 6,460 | 36.0 | 64.0 | – |
27 Aug 2012 | Andy-Ar [154] | 3,251 | 18.3 | 67.1 | 14.6 |
The following table shows opinion polling for the approval of the government's foreign policy.
Date | Pollster | Sample | Approve | Disapprove | Don't know |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
14 Dec 2014 | KHU [72] | 1,000 | 32.6 | 41.4 | 26.0 |
14 Jul 2014 | MetroPoll [155] | 2,268 | 28.0 | 57.7 | 7.4 |
1 Sep 2013 | ORC [103] [156] | 3,100 | 59.2 | 30.2 | 10.4 |
30 Mar 2012 | ORC [123] | 5,000 | 61.2 | 38.8 | – |
The government began a peace process with Kurdish separatist militants in 2013, with the PKK militant organisation beginning a withdrawal of insurgents as a result. However, numerous casualties despite the ceasefire as well as the unclear terms of the ceasefire have generated controversy. The following table shows opinion polling on the approval of the government's solution process.
Date | Pollster | Sample | Approve | Disapprove | Partially | Don't know |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
25 Dec 2014 | ORC [157] | 3,860 | 59.5 | 40.5 | – | – |
14 Dec 2014 | KHU [72] | 1,000 | 25.0 | 47.7 | 27.3 | – |
14 Dec 2014 | KamuAR [73] [74] | 4,177 | 29.6 | 51.7 | 13.9 | 4.8 |
30 Nov 2014 | MetroPoll [145] | 2,780 | 29.1 | 61.4 | – | 9.6 |
6 Sep 2012 | Gezici [115] [116] | 6,460 | 40.7 | 59.3 | – | – |
Following the 2013 government corruption scandal and the subsequent crackdown by the government on the judiciary, the independence of the judiciary has been a key issue of concern for the political opposition and the European Union. The following table shows opinion polling on whether or not the judiciary is independent.
Date | Pollster | Sample | Independent | Not independent | Don't know |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
14 Dec 2014 | KHU [72] | 1,000 | 24.2 | 58.7 | 17.1 |
14 Dec 2014 | KamuAR [73] [74] | 4,177 | 27.5 | 47.2 | 25.3 |
28 Feb 2014 | Gezici [101] | 5,292 | 27.2 | 72.8 | – |
Alevi Muslims are the main religious minority in Turkey. The table below shows opinion polling on whether Alevi citizens should have greater rights, such as granting official status to their place of worship, the Cemevi.
Date | Pollster | Sample | Approve | Disapprove | Don't know |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
14 Dec 2014 | KamuAR [73] [74] | 4,177 | 58.3 | 15.4 | 26.3 |
The following table shows the approval for the government's policy on tackling the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant in Iraq and Syria. This particularly centres around the situation in the border town of Kobanî, where Turkish inaction caused deadly protests, as well as the government's permission for Kurdish Peshmerga forces to cross Turkish territory to fight in Kobanî.
Date | Pollster | Sample | Approve | Disapprove | Don't know |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
14 Dec 2014 | KHU [72] | 1,000 | 19.1 | 51.6 | 29.3 |
14 Dec 2014 | KamuAR [73] [74] | 4,177 | 24.0 | 52.9 | 23.1 |
The following table shows opinion polling for whether workers' rights are sufficient. This issue rose to prominence after 301 miners were killed in Soma, Manisa after a mine collapsed. Subsequent deaths in the construction and mining sector have also caused debate on workers' rights in Turkey.
Date | Pollster | Sample | Sufficient | Insufficient | Don't know |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
14 Dec 2014 | KHU [72] | 1,000 | 24.0 | 52.9 | 23.1 |
14 Dec 2014 | KamuAR [73] [74] | 4,177 | 7.2 | 89.0 | 3.8 |
The following table shows opinion polling for the protests that took place in the summer of 2013 against the construction plan of a shopping mall in Taksim Gezi Park.
Date | Pollster | Sample | Approve | Disapprove | Don't know |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
31 Jul 2014 | Pew [153] | 1,001 | 49,0 | 40,0 | 11,0 |
The following tables show the approval ratings for key politicians in Turkey, most of whom will be seeking re-election in the 2015 general election. The tick icon indicates approval, the X icon indicates disapproval, while N/O indicates no opinion.
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Opinion polling has been commissioned throughout the duration of the 23rd parliamentary term and in the leadup to the 2011 election by various organisations. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.
Presidential elections were held in Turkey on 10 August 2014 in order to elect the 12th President. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was elected outright with an absolute majority of the vote in the first round, making a scheduled run-off for 24 August unnecessary.
General elections were held in Turkey on 7 June 2015 to elect 550 members to the Grand National Assembly. This was the 24th general election in the history of the Turkish Republic, electing the country's 25th Parliament. The result was the first hung parliament since the 1999 general elections. Unsuccessful attempts to form a coalition government resulted in a snap general election being called for November 2015.
Local elections were held in Turkey on 30 March 2014, with some repeated on 1 June 2014. Metropolitan and district mayors as well as their municipal council members in cities, and muhtars and "elderly councils" in rural areas were elected. In light of the controversy around the elections, it was viewed as a referendum on the government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. About 50 million people were eligible to vote.
The 18th Republican People's Party Extraordinary Convention took place on 5 and 6 September 2014 in order to elect a leader of the Republican People's Party, a Turkish centre-left political party. Initially, an ordinary convention was due to be held in 2014, two years after the previous one in 2012. However, the party's incumbent leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu accepted calls for an extraordinary convention to be held following the loss of the CHP's presidential candidate Ekmeleddin İhsanoğlu in the presidential election held in August. The ordinary convention will thus be held in 2015 instead.
Opinion polls in Turkey are conducted by several companies which vary in terms of political affiliations and sampling techniques. They usually conduct polls in relation to voting intentions of the electorate during elections. Results of such polls tend to vary widely, usually due to political bias and alleged manipulation. In some cases, such as during the 2014 presidential election held on 10 August, they have been criticised for their inaccuracy. The leader of the KONDA polling company issued an apology for their inaccuracy on 15 August 2014. On a notable occasion on 17 March 2014, just before the local elections, a poll conducted by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) put the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) in the lead. This poll, like several others conducted before the local elections, did not reflect the outcome of the vote, which again put the verifiability of Turkish opinion polls in doubt.
In the run-up to the Turkish general election of June 2015, many political parties engaged in campaign efforts to increase their vote shares. The main contesting parties were the governing incumbent Justice and Development Party (AKP) led by Ahmet Davutoğlu, the Republican People's Party (CHP) led by Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) led by Devlet Bahçeli and the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) co-led by Selahattin Demirtaş and Figen Yüksekdağ. These four parties are the only parties with a realistic chance of surpassing the 10% parliamentary threshold to gain representation in the Grand National Assembly of Turkey
In the run-up to, during and after the Turkish general election of June 2015, numerous accusations of electoral fraud and violence were made by opposition parties. Electoral fraud in Turkey has usually been most extensive during local elections, where individual votes have significantly larger impact in determining local administrations. Although the 2014 presidential election saw little evidence of electoral misconduct, issues regarding voter records as well as extensive media bias have been controversial issues that have remained largely unaddressed. In both the local and presidential elections in 2014, several voters reported that ballot papers had been sent to addresses that are wrong or do not exist as well as voters that have been dead for a substantial amount of time.
The electoral system of Turkey varies for general, presidential and local elections that take place in Turkey every five years. Turkey has been a multi-party democracy since 1950, with the first democratic election held on 14 May 1950 leading to the end of the single-party rule established in 1923. The current electoral system for electing Members of Parliament to the Grand National Assembly has a 7% election threshold.
The following article documents the issues and developments that have formed the basis of the political campaigns and the news agenda in the run-up to the June 2015 general election and the November 2015 general election.
General elections were held in Turkey on 1 November 2015 to elect 550 members to the Grand National Assembly. They were the 25th general elections in the History of the Republic of Turkey and elected the country's 26th Parliament. The election resulted in the Justice and Development Party (AKP) regaining a parliamentary majority following a 'shock' victory, having lost it five months earlier in the June 2015 general elections.
Meral Danış Beştaş is a Turkish politician from the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), who has served as a Member of Parliament since 7 June 2015.
In the leadup to the November 2015 general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. These polls only include Turkish voters nationwide and do not take into account Turkish expatriates voting abroad.
The Republican People's Party election campaign of June 2015 was the election campaign of the Republican People's Party (CHP), the main opposition political party in Turkey. The campaign, which was mainly centred on the slogan Yaşanacak Bir Türkiye, was for the June 2015 general election. Before the election, the CHP had signed a deal with the American election strategy firm Beneson Strategy Group to assist with the campaign.
The Peoples' Democratic Party election campaign of June 2015 was the official election campaign of the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) for the June 2015 general election in Turkey. the campaign was dominated by the party's co-leader Selahattin Demirtaş. It was the first time a pro-Kurdish party contested a general election as a political party rather than as independent candidates since the 2002 general election and the first time such a party won representation in Parliament.
Controversies during the Turkish general election of November 2015 mainly centred on the escalating violence in the south-east and the rise in domestic terrorist attacks linked to both the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). International concerns also grew over an increase in media censorship, with the government being accused of specifically targeting news outlets known to be close to the Gülen Movement such as Kanaltürk and Bugün TV. Safety concerns due to the escalating conflict resulted in the government proposing to merge ballot boxes in affected areas and to transport them to safer locations, though the opposition criticised the move as an attempt to decrease the votes of the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), which polled strongly in the June 2015 general election.
The Turkish local elections of 2019 were held on Sunday 31 March 2019 throughout the 81 provinces of Turkey. A total of 30 metropolitan and 1,351 district municipal mayors, alongside 1,251 provincial and 20,500 municipal councillors were elected, in addition to numerous local non-partisan positions such as neighbourhood wardens (muhtars) and elderly people's councils.
A constitutional referendum was held in Turkey on 16 April 2017 on whether to approve 18 proposed amendments to the Turkish constitution that were brought forward by the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). As a result of its approval, the office of Prime Minister was abolished and the existing parliamentary system of government was replaced with an executive presidency and a presidential system. The number of seats in Parliament was raised from 550 to 600, while, among a series of other proposals, the president was given more control over appointments to the Supreme Board of Judges and Prosecutors (HSYK). The referendum was held under a state of emergency that was declared following a failed military coup attempt in July 2016.
The Nation Alliance, abbreviated as NATION, was an electoral and political alliance in Turkey, made up of six opposition parties to contest the 2023 Turkish general election against its main rival, the People's Alliance. Originally established prior to the country's 2018 general election, the alliance had consisted of four opposition parties across the political spectrum, which had found common ground on withstanding Turkey's newly established presidential system. The alliance dissolved in 1 June 2023 following its decisive defeat in the 2023 elections, after Good Party's announcement that they were no longer a part of it.
The June 2019 Istanbul mayoral election was held on 23 June 2019. It was a repeat of the March 2019 mayoral election, which was annulled by the Supreme Electoral Council (YSK) on 6 May 2019. The original election had resulted in a narrow 0.2% margin of victory for opposition candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu, causing the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) to successfully petition for a by-election.
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