The Roe effect is a hypothesis about the long-term effect of abortion on the political balance of the United States, which suggests that since supporters of the legalization of abortion cause the erosion of their own political base, the practice of abortion will eventually lead to the restriction or illegalization of abortion. It is named after Roe v. Wade , the U.S. Supreme Court case that effectively legalized abortion nationwide in the U.S. Its best-known proponent is James Taranto of The Wall Street Journal who coined the phrase "Roe effect" in Best of the Web Today, his OpinionJournal.com column.
Put simply, this hypothesis holds that:
A similar argument suggests that political groups that oppose abortion will tend to have more supporters in the long run than those who support it. In 2005, the Wall Street Journal published a detailed explanation and statistical evidence that Taranto says supports his hypothesis. [1]
Taranto first discussed the concept in January 2003, [2] and named it in December 2003. He later suggested that the Roe effect serves as an explanation for the fact that the fall in teen birth rates is "greatest in liberal states, where pregnant teenagers would be more likely to [have abortions] and thus less likely to carry their babies to term." [3]
The Journal has also published articles about this topic by Larry L. Eastland [4] and Arthur C. Brooks. [5] Eastland has argued that Democrats have had higher rates of abortion than Republicans following Roe, while Brooks points out liberals have a lower fertility rate than conservatives. [6]
According to American historian Elizabeth Fox-Genovese the existence of such an effect "cannot be doubted" but "its nature, causes, and consequences may be." Fox-Genovese said that "Taranto has advanced an arresting argument that deserves more extended treatment." [7]
Wellesley College Professor of Economics Phillip Levine, while acknowledging that Taranto's hypothesis cannot be dismissed out of hand, has said there are several flaws in Taranto's reasoning. He writes that the conditions laid out by Taranto make several incorrect assumptions, most notably that pregnancies are events that are completely out of the control of the women. He writes, "If people engage in sexual activity (or not), or choose to use birth control (or not), independent of outside influences, then [Taranto's and Eastland's] statistical statements would be valid." Levine concludes that the hypothesis passes the test of plausibility but that it "would be unwarranted to draw any definitive conclusions regarding the actual contribution of the Roe Effect in determining contemporary political outcomes." [8]
Roe v. Wade, 410 U.S. 113 (1973), was a landmark decision of the U.S. Supreme Court in which the Court ruled that the Constitution of the United States generally protected a right to have an abortion. The decision struck down many abortion laws, and caused an ongoing abortion debate in the United States about whether, or to what extent, abortion should be legal, who should decide the legality of abortion, and what the role of moral and religious views in the political sphere should be. The decision also shaped debate concerning which methods the Supreme Court should use in constitutional adjudication.
The United States is a global outlier among developed countries on the issue of abortion, with the subject being divisible in American politics and culture wars to an extent not found elsewhere. There are widely different abortion laws depending on state.
The abortion debate is a longstanding, ongoing controversy that touches on the moral, legal, medical, and religious aspects of induced abortion. In English-speaking countries, the debate most visibly polarizes around adherents of the self-described "pro-choice" and "pro-life" movements. Pro-choice emphasizes a woman's right to bodily autonomy, while the pro-life position argues that a fetus is a human deserving of legal protection, separate from the will of the mother. Both terms are considered loaded in mainstream media, where terms such as "abortion rights" or "anti-abortion" are generally preferred.
Fertility is the ability to conceive a child. The fertility rate is the average number of children born during an individual's lifetime and is quantified demographically. Conversely, infertility is the difficulty or inability to reproduce naturally. In general, infertility is defined as not being able to conceive a child after one year of unprotected sex. Infertility is widespread, with fertility specialists available all over the world to assist parents and couples who experience difficulties conceiving a baby.
Birth rate, also known as natality, is the total number of live human births per 1,000 population for a given period divided by the length of the period in years. The number of live births is normally taken from a universal registration system for births; population counts from a census, and estimation through specialized demographic techniques. The birth rate is used to calculate population growth. The estimated average population may be taken as the mid-year population.
Sub-replacement fertility is a total fertility rate (TFR) that leads to each new generation being less populous than the older, previous one in a given area. The United Nations Population Division defines sub-replacement fertility as any rate below approximately 2.1 children born per woman of childbearing age, but the threshold can be as high as 3.4 in some developing countries because of higher mortality rates. Taken globally, the total fertility rate at replacement was 2.33 children per woman in 2003. This can be "translated" as 2 children per woman to replace the parents, plus a "third of a child" to make up for the higher probability of males born and mortality prior to the end of a person's fertile life. In 2020, the average global fertility rate was around 2.4 children born per woman.
A theory regarding the effect of legalized abortion on crime is a controversial hypothesis about the reduction in crime in the decades following the legalization of abortion. Proponents argue that the availability of abortion resulted in fewer births of children at the highest risk of committing crime. The earliest research suggesting such an effect was a 1966 study in Sweden. In 2001, Steven Levitt of the University of Chicago and John Donohue of Yale University argued, citing their research and earlier studies, that children who are unwanted or whose parents cannot support them are likelier to become criminals. This idea was further popularized by its inclusion in the book Freakonomics, which Levitt co-wrote.
Steven David Levitt is an American economist and co-author of the best-selling book Freakonomics and its sequels. Levitt was the winner of the 2003 John Bates Clark Medal for his work in the field of crime, and is currently the William B. Ogden Distinguished Service Professor of Economics at the University of Chicago as well as the Faculty Director and Co-Founder of the Center for Radical Innovation for Social Change at the University of Chicago which incubates the Data Science for Everyone coalition. He was co-editor of the Journal of Political Economy published by the University of Chicago Press until December 2007. In 2009, Levitt co-founded TGG Group, a business and philanthropy consulting company. He was chosen as one of Time magazine's "100 People Who Shape Our World" in 2006. A 2011 survey of economics professors named Levitt their fourth favorite living economist under the age of 60, after Paul Krugman, Greg Mankiw and Daron Acemoglu.
The United States anti-abortion movement contains elements opposing induced abortion on both moral and religious grounds and supports its legal prohibition or restriction. Advocates generally argue that human life begins at conception and that the human zygote, embryo or fetus is a person and therefore has a right to life. The anti-abortion movement includes a variety of organizations, with no single centralized decision-making body. There are diverse arguments and rationales for the anti-abortion stance. Some anti-abortion activists allow for some permissible abortions, including therapeutic abortions, in exceptional circumstances such as incest, rape, severe fetal defects, or when the woman's health is at risk.
Abortion in Russia is legal as an elective procedure up to the 12th week of pregnancy, and in special circumstances at later stages.
The human sex ratio is the ratio of males to females in a population in the context of anthropology and demography. In humans, the natural sex ratio at birth is slightly biased towards the male sex. It is estimated to be about 1.05 or 1.06 or within a narrow range from 1.03 to 1.06 males per female.
Unintended pregnancies are pregnancies that are mistimed, unplanned or unwanted at the time of conception.
Decree 770 was a decree of the communist Romanian government of Nicolae Ceaușescu, signed in 1967. It restricted abortion and contraception, and was intended to create a new and large Romanian population. The term decreței is used to refer to those Romanians born during the time period immediately following the decree.
16 and Pregnant is an American reality television series that aired from June 11, 2009, to July 1, 2014, on the cable channel MTV. It followed the stories of pregnant teenage girls in high school dealing with the hardships of teenage pregnancy. Each episode featured a different teenage girl, with the episode typically beginning when she is 4+1⁄2 – 8 months into her pregnancy. The episode typically ends when the baby is a few months old. The series is produced in a documentary format, with an animation on notebook paper showing highlights during each episode preceding the commercial breaks. 16 and Pregnant has spawned five spin-off series: Teen Mom, Teen Mom 2, Teen Mom 3, Teen Mom: Young and Pregnant, and 16 and Recovering, which premiered on September 1, 2020.
Scientific and medical expert bodies have repeatedly concluded that abortion poses no greater mental health risks than carrying an unintended pregnancy to term. Nevertheless, the relationship between induced abortion and mental health is an area of political controversy. In 2008, the American Psychological Association concluded after a review of available evidence that induced abortion did not increase the risk of mental-health problems. In 2011, the U.K. National Collaborating Centre for Mental Health similarly concluded that first-time abortion in the first trimester does not increase the risk of mental-health problems compared with bringing the pregnancy to term. In 2018, The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine concluded that abortion does not lead to depression, anxiety, or post-traumatic stress disorder. The U.K. Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists likewise summarized the evidence by finding that abortion did not increase the risk of mental-health problems compared to women carrying an unwanted pregnancy to term. Two studies conducted on the Danish population in 2011 and 2012 analysed the association between abortion and psychiatric admission found no increase in admissions after an abortion. The same study, in fact, found an increase in psychiatric admission after first child-birth. A 2008 systematic review of the medical literature on abortion and mental health found that high-quality studies consistently showed few or no mental-health consequences of abortion, while poor-quality studies were more likely to report negative consequences.
Abortion-rights movements, also self-styled as pro-choice movements, advocate for the right to have legal access to induced abortion services including elective abortion. They seek to represent and support women who wish to terminate their pregnancy without fear of legal or social backlash. These movements are in direct opposition to anti-abortion movements.
Anti-abortion movements, also self-styled as pro-life or abolitionistmovements, are involved in the abortion debate advocating against the practice of abortion and its legality. Many anti-abortion movements began as countermovements in response to the legalization of elective abortions.
After decades of increasing crime across the industrialised world, crime rates started to decline sharply in the 1990s, a trend that continued into the new millennium. Many explanations have been proposed, including situational crime prevention and interactions between many other factors complex, multifactorial causation.
Socialist perspectives on abortion vary. In the first world, some socialist individuals believe in the legalisation and right to elective abortion care as a public service, whereas others do not believe abortion should be legal in any circumstances for a number of reasons. In Third World, there are discussions regarding traditionalists, Natalists, Malthusianists, and economics factors within society.
Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, No. 19-1392, 597 U.S. 215 (2022), is a landmark decision of the U.S. Supreme Court in which the court held that the Constitution of the United States does not confer a right to abortion. The court's decision overruled both Roe v. Wade (1973) and Planned Parenthood v. Casey (1992), returning to individual states the power to regulate any aspect of abortion not protected by federal law.