Steve McIntyre

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Steve McIntyre
Bornc. 1947
NationalityCanadian
EducationBSc (mathematics)
MA (philosophy, politics, and economics)
Alma mater University of Toronto
University of Oxford
OccupationMining consultant
Known forCritique of the hockey stick graph
Website Climate Audit

Stephen McIntyre (born c. 1947) is a Canadian mining exploration company director, a former minerals prospector and semi-retired mining consultant whose work has included statistical analysis. He is the founder and editor of Climate Audit, a blog which analyses and discusses climate data. He is a critic of the temperature record of the past 1000 years and the data quality of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. He has made statistical critiques, with economist Ross McKitrick, of the hockey stick graph which shows that the increase in late 20th century global temperatures is unprecedented in the past 1,000 years. [1]

Contents

Early life and education

McIntyre, a native of Ontario, attended the University of Toronto Schools, a college-preparatory school in Toronto, finishing first in the national high school mathematics competition of 1965. [2] He went on to study mathematics at the University of Toronto and graduated with a Bachelor of Science degree in 1969. McIntyre then obtained a Commonwealth Scholarship to read philosophy, politics and economics (PPE) at Corpus Christi College, Oxford, graduating in 1971. [1] [2] Although he was offered a graduate scholarship, McIntyre decided not to pursue studies in mathematical economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. [2]

Career

McIntyre started work for Noranda [1] and worked for 30 years in the mineral business, [2] the last part of these in the hard-rock mineral exploration as an officer or director of several public mineral exploration companies. [3] [4] He was the president and founder of Northwest Exploration Company Limited and a director of its parent company, Northwest Explorations Inc. When Northwest Explorations Inc. was taken over in 1998 by CGX Resources Inc. to form the oil and gas exploration company CGX Energy Inc., McIntyre ceased being a director. McIntyre was a strategic advisor for CGX in 2000 through 2003. [5] McIntyre says that during his career his skills in statistical analysis enabled him to analyse mineral prospecting data and out-bet his rivals. [6] He also occasionally worked as a government policy analyst, including a period at the federal Anti-Inflation Board. [1]

Prior to 2003 he was an officer or director of several small public mineral exploration companies. He retired from full-time work, but still sometimes engaged in mining consultancy. [7] He is an active squash player and once won a gold medal in the World Masters Games in squash doubles. [2]

In April 2011, Trelawney Mining and Exploration Inc. of Toronto, Ontario announced the appointment of McIntyre to their board of directors and then later to chairman in June 2011. [8] [9] In September 2011, McIntyre was appointed to the board of directors of Augen Gold Corp., which was shortly acquired by Trelawney Mining and Exploration Inc. in November 2011. [10] [11] In October 2011, McIntyre was appointed to the board of directors of Southeast Asia Mining Corp. and later resigned in May 2012. [12] [13] Trelawney Mining and Exploration Inc. was acquired by Iamgold Corporation in June 2012. [14]

Hockey stick graph controversy

In 2002, McIntyre became interested in climate science after a leaflet from the Canadian government warning of the dangers of global warming was delivered to his residence. McIntyre states that he noticed discrepancies in climate science papers that reminded him of the false prospectus that had duped investors involved in the Bre-X gold mining scandal. [6]

The Canadian government pamphlets were based on the IPCC Third Assessment Report section, which prominently displayed the hockey stick graph based on the 1999 reconstruction by Mann, Bradley and Hughes (MBH99). McIntyre began studying Mann's research, which had produced the graph, and met Ross McKitrick. [15] [16] McIntyre has remarked on how his suspicions of this graph were aroused: "In financial circles, we talk about a hockey stick curve when some investor presents you with a nice, steep curve in the hope of palming something off on you." [17]

McIntyre & McKittrick's papers were cited by Senator Jim Inhofe and Representative Joe Barton to support their political criticisms of the MBH studies, and Representative Sherwood Boehlert requested the National Academy of Sciences in the United States to arrange an investigation. The outcome was the North Report, published in 2006, which endorsed the MBH studies with a few reservations. The principal component analysis method criticised by McIntyre & McKittrick had a small tendency to bias results so was not recommended, but it had little influence on the final reconstructions, and other methods produced similar results. [18] [19] [20] [ non-primary source needed ]

ClimateAudit.org

McIntyre's blog has as a recurrent topic the struggle to obtain underlying data from peer reviewed papers. McIntyre has stated that he started Climate Audit so that he could defend himself against attacks being made at the climatology blog RealClimate. [21] An earlier website, Climate2003, provided additional information for papers co-written by McIntyre and Ross McKitrick, including raw data and source code, and comments by McIntyre. On 26 October 2004 McIntyre commented on climate2003.com, "Maybe I'll start blogging some odds and ends that I'm working on. I'm going to post up some more observations on some of the blog criticisms." [22] On 1 December Mann and nine other scientists launched the RealClimate website. [23] On 2 February McIntyre set up his Climate Audit blog, having found difficulties with posting comments on the climate2003.com layout. [24]

Climate Audit was co-winner of a 2007 Weblog Award for "Best Science Blog", receiving 20,000 votes in the online poll. [25]

Auditing

Stephen McIntyre has been highlighted by the press, including The Wall Street Journal . [26]

In 2007, McIntyre started auditing the various corrections made to temperature records, in particular those relating to the urban heat island effect. He discovered a discontinuity in some U.S. records in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) dataset starting in January 2000. He emailed GISS advising them of the problem and within a couple of days GISS issued a new, corrected set of data and thanked McIntyre for "bringing to our attention that such an adjustment is necessary to prevent creating an artificial jump in year 2000". [27] The adjustment reduced the average temperatures for the continental United States by about 0.15  °C during the years 2000-2006. Changes in other portions of the record did not exceed 0.03 °C; it made no discernible difference to the global mean anomalies.

McIntyre later commented: [28]

My original interest in GISS adjustment procedures was not an abstract interest, but a specific interest in whether GISS adjustment procedures were equal to the challenge of "fixing" bad data. If one views the above assessment as a type of limited software audit (limited by lack of access to source code and operating manuals), one can say firmly that the GISS software had not only failed to pick up and correct fictitious steps of up to 1 deg C, but that GISS actually introduced this error in the course of their programming. According to any reasonable audit standards, one would conclude that the GISS software had failed this particular test. While GISS can (and has) patched the particular error that I reported to them, their patching hardly proves the merit of the GISS (and USHCN) adjustment procedures. These need to be carefully examined.

Role in the Climatic Research Unit controversy

Colby Cosh, writing for Maclean's magazine, believes McIntyre's criticisms of climate science are at the heart of the Climatic Research Unit email controversy in November–December 2009. McIntyre is mentioned over 100 times in the hacked Climatic Research Unit (CRU) emails. In the emails, one climate researcher dismisses him as a "bozo". Others speculate over his funding, and argue about whether to ignore or counterattack him, although, according to Cosh, some unnamed scientists acknowledge that his criticisms have merit. [1]

The Associated Press analysis of the CRU e-mails stated: "Some e-mails said McIntyre's attempts to get original data from scientists are frivolous and meant more for harassment than doing good science. There are allegations that he would distort and misuse data given to him. McIntyre disagreed with how he is portrayed. 'Everything that I've done in this, I've done in good faith,' he said." [29] The independent Science Assessment Panel's chair, Lord Oxburgh, said at a press conference that the repeated Freedom of Information (FOI) requests made by Steve McIntyre and others could have amounted to a campaign of harassment, and the issue of how FOI laws should be applied in an academic context remained unresolved. [30]

In May 2010 BBC environment analyst Roger Harrabin wrote that McIntyre "arguably knows more about CRU science than anyone outside the unit — but none of the CRU inquiries has contacted him for input." [31] In March McIntyre had submitted evidence to the Independent Climate Change Email Review (chaired by Sir Muir Russell), and points he raised were discussed in the Review report published on 7 July 2010. [32] New Statesman named McIntyre as 32nd of its "50 People Who Matter 2010", citing his role in the email controversy. It said "The influence might not be positive, but there's no doubt he has shaped the debate." [33]

Selected publications

See also

Related Research Articles

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Michael E. Mann</span> American physicist and climatologist

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Hans von Storch</span> German climate scientist

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References

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 Cosh, Colby (13 December 2009). "Centre of the storm". Maclean's . Retrieved 29 June 2012.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 McIntyre, Stephen (25 October 2003). "Short Bio: Steven McIntyre". Archived from the original on 28 November 2007. Retrieved 1 September 2007.
  3. ↑ Stephen McIntyre (22 March 2006). "Blog comment". Climate Audit . Retrieved 1 September 2007.
  4. ↑ "Stephen McIntyre". George C. Marshall Institute. Archived from the original on 8 August 2007. Retrieved 1 September 2007.
  5. ↑ "Consolidated Statements of Operations & Deficit" (PDF). cgxEnergy. Archived from the original (PDF) on 28 November 2007. Retrieved 1 September 2007.
  6. 1 2 Pearce, p. 14.
  7. ↑ Montford, A.W. (2010). The Hockey Stick Illusion. London: Stacey International. p. 58. ISBN   978-1-906768-35-5.
  8. ↑ "Trelawney Intersects 304.00 Metres of 1.65 g/t Gold in 200-Metre Step-Out Hole From the Cote Lake Deposit; Appoints New Director and Grants Stock Options". Marketwire. 4 April 2011. Retrieved 29 June 2012.
  9. ↑ "Trelawney Announces Appointment of Officers and Grant of Stock Options". Marketwire. 30 June 2011. Retrieved 29 May 2012.
  10. ↑ "Augen Gold Announces Appointment of New Directors and Management". Marketwire. 23 September 2011. Retrieved 29 June 2012.
  11. ↑ "Trelawney Completes Compulsory Acquisition of Shares of Augen Gold". Marketwire. 4 November 2011. Retrieved 29 June 2012.
  12. ↑ "Southeast Asia Mining Closes $3.4 Million Private Placement". Marketwire. 13 October 2011. Retrieved 29 June 2012.
  13. ↑ "Board Resignation". Marketwire. 23 May 2012. Retrieved 29 June 2012.
  14. ↑ "IAMGOLD Corporation Completes Acquisition Of Trelawney Mining and Exploration Inc". Reuters. 21 June 2012. Archived from the original on 23 February 2013. Retrieved 29 June 2012.
  15. ↑ McKitrick, Ross; McIntyre, Stephen (November 2003), Ross McKitrick, archived from the original on 27 November 2003, retrieved 10 September 2012
  16. ↑ McIntyre, Stephen; McKitrick, Ross (February 2005). "Hockey Sticks, principal components, and spurious significance" (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters . 32 (3): L03710. Bibcode:2005GeoRL..32.3710M. doi: 10.1029/2004GL021750 . Archived from the original (PDF) on 12 April 2007. Retrieved 1 September 2007.
  17. ↑ Evers, Marco; Stampf, Olaf; Traufetter, Gerald (1 April 2010). "Climate Catastrophe: A Superstorm for Global Warming Research". Der Spiegel . Retrieved 29 June 2012.
  18. ↑ Revkin, Andrew C. (22 June 2006), "Science Panel Backs Study on Warming Climate", New York Times
  19. ↑ National Research Council (2006). Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the last 2,000 years. National Academies Press. CiteSeerX   10.1.1.178.5968 . doi:10.17226/11676. ISBN   978-0-309-10225-4.
  20. ↑ McIntyre, Stephen (11 September 2005). "Hockey Stick Studies". Archived from the original on 11 August 2015. Retrieved 19 August 2015.
  21. ↑ Stephen McIntyre (23 March 2006). "Blog comment". Climate Audit. Retrieved 26 December 2010.
  22. ↑ McIntyre, Stephen (26 October 2004), "Oct. 26, 2004 "SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS"", Webpage of Stephen McIntyre, Climate2003, archived from the original on 24 January 2005, retrieved 10 September 2012
  23. ↑ Appell, David (21 February 2005), "Behind the Hockey Stick", Scientific American, vol. 292, no. 3, pp. 34–35, Bibcode:2005SciAm.292c..34A, doi:10.1038/scientificamerican0305-34, PMID   15859209 , retrieved 7 March 2011
  24. ↑ McIntyre, Steve (3 February 2005), Climate Audit, Climate Audit, archived from the original on 4 February 2005, retrieved 10 September 2012
  25. ↑ Aylward, Kevin (1 November 2007). "Best Science Blog - The 2007 Weblog Awards". Wizbang. Archived from the original on 4 November 2007. Retrieved 29 June 2012.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: unfit URL (link)
  26. ↑ "Climate Change Emails Reveal Rigged "Consensus"". The Wall Street Journal. 27 November 2009.
  27. ↑ "GISS Surface Temperature Analysis: August 2007 Updates to Analysis and Effects". NASA. Archived from the original on 12 October 2007. Retrieved 29 June 2012.
  28. ↑ McIntyre, Steve (11 August 2007). "Does Hansen's Error "Matter"?". Climate Audit. Retrieved 29 June 2012.
  29. ↑ Borenstein, Seth; Satter, Raphael; Ritter, Malcolm (12 December 2009). "AP IMPACT: Science not faked, but not pretty". Associated Press . Retrieved 25 December 2009.
  30. ↑ Adams, David (14 April 2010). "Scientists cleared of malpractice in UEA's hacked emails inquiry". The Guardian. London. Retrieved 14 April 2010.
  31. ↑ Harrabin, Roger (29 May 2010). "Harrabin's Notes: Getting the message". BBC . Retrieved 29 June 2012.
  32. ↑ The Independent Climate Change Email Review, an independent review funded by the UEA, chaired by Sir Muir Russell
  33. ↑ "50 People Who Matter 2010 - 32. Stephen McIntyre: Climategate keeper". New Statesman. 27 September 2010. Retrieved 29 June 2012.
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