2014 United States Senate election in Montana

Last updated

2014 United States Senate election in Montana
Flag of Montana.svg
  2008 November 4, 2014 2020  
  Steve Daines, official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped).jpg No image.svg
Nominee Steve Daines Amanda Curtis [lower-alpha 1]
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote213,709148,184
Percentage57.79%40.07%

2014 United States Senate election in Montana results map by county.svg
County results
Daines:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Curtis:     50–60%     60–70%

U.S. senator before election

John Walsh [lower-alpha 2]
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Steve Daines
Republican

The 2014 United States Senate election in Montana took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate from Montana, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Contents

Democratic Senator Max Baucus, who had announced he would retire and not seek a seventh term, resigned in February 2014 in order to accept an appointment as United States Ambassador to China under President Barack Obama. Democrat John Walsh, the Lieutenant Governor of Montana, who was already running for Baucus' seat when Baucus was named to the ambassadorship, was appointed to replace Baucus by Governor Steve Bullock. [1]

Walsh won the Democratic primary on June 3 and ran for a first full term in office, but withdrew from the race on August 7, 2014 due to allegations that he had plagiarized a term paper while attending the Army War College. [2] Democrats selected Amanda Curtis, a state representative from Butte, to replace Walsh as the party's nominee at a convention in Helena on August 16. [3] Steve Daines, the incumbent U.S. Representative from Montana's at-large congressional district, easily won the Republican nomination.

Daines defeated Curtis 57.9% to 40.0%, while Libertarian Roger Roots won 2.2%. Daines and Arkansas' Tom Cotton became just the 18th and 19th U.S. House freshmen to win U.S. Senate races over the last 100 years, and just the third and fourth over the last 40 years. [4] He became the first Republican to win this Senate seat since 1907.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

John Walsh
Elected officials
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Walsh
Dirk
Adams
John
Bohlinger
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling November 15–17, 2013381± 5%39%3%31%27%
Harper Polling January 20–22, 2014519± 4.3%23%2%23%52%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Max
Baucus
Brian
Schweitzer
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 16–19, 2011333± 5.4%34%51%14%
Public Policy Polling November 28–30, 2011573± 4.1%35%51%14%
Public Policy Polling April 26–29, 2012332± 5.4%37%48%15%
Public Policy Polling September 10–11, 2012201± 5.4%36%40%24%
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 2013371± 5.1%35%54%11%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Denise
Juneau
Brian
Schweitzer
OtherUndecided
Harper Polling April 27–28, 2013165± 7.63%14%78%8%

Results

Results by county
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
Walsh
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
Bohlinger
50-60% 2014 MT US Senate Democratic primary.svg
Results by county
  Walsh
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Bohlinger
  •   50–60%
Democratic primary results [33]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic John Walsh (incumbent) 48,665 64.04%
Democratic John Bohlinger 17,18722.62%
Democratic Dirk Adams10,13913.34%
Total votes75,991 100.00%

Democratic convention

Because Walsh withdrew, a nominating convention was held to pick a new nominee prior to August 20. [34] The state party called a convention for August 16, and voting delegates were members of the State Central Committee, specifically: "one chair and one vice chair from each existing county central committee; one state committeeman and one state committeewoman from each county central committee; all voting members of the State Party Executive Board; the president of each chartered organization of the Montana Democratic Party; Montana State House leadership, and Montana State Senate leaders, and all Democrats currently holding statewide or federal office." [35]

Candidates

Momentary buzz was created by a movement to draft actor Jeff Bridges for the nomination, with over 1,000 people signing a petition on Change.org and a Twitter account, DudeSenator, being created online. Bridges, who lives part-time and owns property in the Paradise Valley south of Livingston, Montana, declined the offer on the Howard Stern show, noting the disapproval of his wife. Other news outlets noted that he also was not registered to vote in Montana. [36] [37]

Potential

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Amanda Curtis

Elected officials

Organizations

Results

Democratic convention results [64]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Amanda Curtis 82 64.0%
Democratic Dirk Adams4636.0%
Total votes128 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Steve Daines
Elected officials
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Steve
Daines
Champ
Edmunds
Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 15–17, 2013469± 4.5%66%7%27%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Steve
Daines
Champ
Edmunds
Marc
Racicot
Corey
Stapleton
Undecided
Harper Polling April 27–28, 2013472± 4.51%26%3%42%6%22%
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013340± 5.3%28%5%47%5%14%

Results

Republican primary results [33]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Steve Daines 110,565 83.37%
Republican Susan Cundiff11,9098.98%
Republican Champ Edmunds 10,1517.65%
Total votes132,625 100.00%

Libertarian nomination

Candidates

Declared

Independents

Candidates

Declined

General election

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [87] Solid R (flip)November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball [88] Safe R (flip)November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report [89] Safe R (flip)November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics [90] Safe R (flip)November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Steve
Daines (R)
Amanda
Curtis (D)
OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports August 18–19, 2014750± 4%55%35%2%8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18 – September 2, 2014684± 5%53%35%1%11%
Gravis Marketing September 29–30, 2014535± 4%54%41%5%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20 – October 1, 2014549± 5%55%34%0%10%
The MSU-Billings Poll October 6–11, 2014410± 5%47%31%2% [91] 21%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014497± 6%56%38%0%6%
Gravis Marketing October 23–24, 2014604± 4%53%39%8%
Hypothetical polling
With Adams
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Dirk
Adams (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
OtherUndecided
Harper Polling January 20–22, 2014519± 4.3%20%44%36%
with Baucus
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Max
Baucus (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%44%49%7%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Max
Baucus (D)
Champ
Edmunds (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%47%37%16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Max
Baucus (D)
Tim
Fox (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%46%43%11%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Max
Baucus (D)
Marc
Racicot (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%42%47%11%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Max
Baucus (D)
Corey
Stapleton (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%45%38%16%
With Bohlinger
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Bohlinger (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling November 15–17, 2013952± 3.2%36%51%13%
Harper Polling January 20–22, 2014519± 4.3%32%43%25%
Harper Polling April 7–8, 2014604± 4.3%33%44%23%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Bohlinger (D)
Champ
Edmunds (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling November 15–17, 2013952± 3.2%37%39%24%
With Juneau
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Denise
Juneau (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013807± 3.4%38%48%13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Denise
Juneau (D)
Champ
Edmunds (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013807± 3.4%41%34%25%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Denise
Juneau (D)
Marc
Racicot (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013807± 3.4%37%52%11%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Denise
Juneau (D)
Corey
Stapleton (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013807± 3.4%42%38%21%
With Keenan
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Nancy
Keenan (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%39%49%12%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Nancy
Keenan (D)
Champ
Edmunds (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%41%36%23%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Nancy
Keenan (D)
Tim
Fox (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%40%45%15%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Nancy
Keenan (D)
Marc
Racicot (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%38%50%11%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Nancy
Keenan (D)
Corey
Stapleton (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%40%40%20%
With Lindeen
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Monica
Lindeen (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013807± 3.4%37%49%14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Monica
Lindeen (D)
Champ
Edmunds (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013807± 3.4%39%34%26%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Monica
Lindeen (D)
Marc
Racicot (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013807± 3.4%35%52%13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Monica
Lindeen (D)
Corey
Stapleton (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013807± 3.4%39%37%24%
With Schweitzer
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Brian
Schweitzer (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%48%45%7%
Harper Polling April 27–28, 2013771± 3.53%50%40%10%
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013807± 3.4%48%45%7%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Brian
Schweitzer (D)
Champ
Edmunds (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%52%37%12%
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013807± 3.4%52%37%11%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Brian
Schweitzer (D)
Tim
Fox (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%49%43%8%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Brian
Schweitzer (D)
Marc
Racicot (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%45%46%9%
Harper Polling April 27–28, 2013771± 3.53%47%43%10%
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013807± 3.4%46%47%6%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Brian
Schweitzer (D)
Corey
Stapleton (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%49%39%13%
Public Policy Polling June 21–23, 2013807± 3.4%52%38%10%
With Walsh
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Walsh (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling November 15–17, 2013952± 3.2%35%52%13%
Harper Polling January 20–22, 2014519± 4.3%29%43%28%
Rasmussen Reports March 17–18, 2014750± 4%37%51%4%9%
Magellan Strategies April 1–2, 20142,490± 1.96%36%49%9% [92] 6%
Harper Polling April 7–8, 2014604± 4.3%35%42%23%
Hickman Analytics April 24–30, 2014400± 4.9%37%49%14%
Vox Populi Polling May 21–22, 2014806± 3.5%33%56%11%
Magellan Strategies June 4–5, 2014761± 3.57%39%55%6%
Rasmussen Reports June 9–10, 2014750± 4%35%53%3%9%
Public Policy Polling July 17–18, 2014574± 4.1%39%46%15%
Gravis Marketing July 20–22, 2014741± 4%41%45%6% [91] 7%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 2014838± 3.6%39%55%2%4%
Gravis Marketing July 24, 2014781± 3.5%38%45%9% [91] 8%
Vox Populi Polling August 3–4, 2014798± 3.5%34%47%18%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Walsh (D)
Champ
Edmunds (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling November 15–17, 2013952± 3.2%36%38%26%

Results

United States Senate election in Montana, 2014 [93]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Steve Daines 213,709 57.79% +30.71%
Democratic Amanda Curtis 148,18440.07%-32.85%
Libertarian Roger Roots7,9332.14%N/A
Total votes369,826 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

Notes

  1. Replaced John Walsh.
  2. In February 2014, Walsh was appointed by Governor Steve Bullock to fill the vacancy caused by the resignation of Senator Max Baucus, who had appointed U.S. Ambassador to China.

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Roy Brown is a former Montana state senator from Billings, Montana Senate District 25. He served four terms in the Montana House of Representatives and was elected to the state senate in 2007. He was the Republican nominee for the governor seat in Montana with Steve Daines in 2008. In 2010, Representative Kendall Van Dyk defeated Brown in the general election.

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Steven David Daines is an American politician and former corporate executive serving as the junior United States senator from Montana since 2015. A member of the Republican Party, he represented Montana's at-large congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2013 to 2015.

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References

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