2014 Wisconsin gubernatorial election

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2014 Wisconsin gubernatorial election
Flag of Wisconsin.svg
←  2012 (recall) November 4, 2014 2018  →
Turnout54.5% (Decrease2.svg 3.3%)
  Scott Walker (16485216228) (1).jpg Mary Burke (cropped).jpg
Nominee Scott Walker Mary Burke
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Rebecca Kleefisch John Lehman
Popular vote1,259,7061,122,913
Percentage52.3%46.6%
2014 Wisconsin gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
County results
Walker:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Burke:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Governor before election

Scott Walker
Republican

Elected Governor

Scott Walker
Republican

The 2014 Wisconsin gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to determine the governor and lieutenant governor of the U.S. state of Wisconsin. It occurred concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Contents

Incumbent Republican Governor Scott Walker won re-election to a second term in office, defeating Democratic businesswoman and Madison school board member Mary Burke and two minor party candidates in the general election.

Walker, who was elected in 2010, survived an attempted recall in 2012, the first governor in United States history to do so, defeating Democrat Tom Barrett both times. Wisconsin voters have elected a governor from a different political party than the sitting president in 27 of the last 31 elections since 1932; only once has a Democratic candidate been elected governor in Wisconsin in the last 18 contests when a Democrat was in the White House. [1] Eleven of the last twelve Wisconsin governors, dating back to Republican Vernon Wallace Thomson in the late 1950s, had, unlike Burke, previously won an election to state government, the exception being Republican Lee S. Dreyfus in 1978. [2]

The polling leading up to the election was very close, with no candidate clearly in the lead. The consensus among most analysts was that the race was either a tossup or leaning Republican. As of 2023, this is the last time a Republican was elected governor of Wisconsin. This is the last time that a candidate was elected Governor of Wisconsin by winning a majority of counties in Wisconsin.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Results

Republican primary results [4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Scott Walker (incumbent) 238,715 99.42
Republican Steve Evans (write-in)940.04
No partyScattering1,2930.54
Total votes240,102 100

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Disqualified

Declined


Endorsements

Mary Burke

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mary
Burke		Brett
Hulsey		Marcia Mercedes
Perkins		Hari
Trivedi		OtherUndecided
Marquette University May 15–18, 2014 ?± ?66%3%1%1%—24%

Results

Results by county .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Burke-->90% Burke--80-90% Burke--70-80% Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary results by county, 2014.svg
Results by county
  Burke—>90%
  Burke—80-90%
  Burke—70–80%
Democratic primary results [4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Mary Burke 259,926 83.28
Democratic Brett Hulsey51,83016.61
No partyScattering3500.11
Total votes312,106 100

Third parties and independents

Candidates

Declared

  • Running mate: Joseph Brost

Disqualified

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [30] TossupNovember 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball [31] Lean RNovember 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report [32] Tilt RNovember 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics [33] TossupNovember 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Scott
Walker (R)		Mary
Burke (D)		OtherUndecided
YouGov October 25–31, 20141,494± 3.4%45%43%1%11%
Public Policy Polling October 28–30, 20141,814± 3%48%47%—5%
Marquette University October 23–26, 20141,164 LV± 3%50%43%1%7%
1,409 RV± 2.7%46%45%1%9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 20143,308± 3%46%45%0%10%
Rasmussen Reports October 20–21, 2014973± 3%48%49%1%2%
WPR/St. Norbert College Archived 2014-10-25 at the Wayback Machine October 18–21, 2014525± 4.4%47%46%—6%
Public Policy Polling October 17–18, 2014860± ?47%46%—7%
Marquette University October 9–12, 2014803 LV± 3.5%47%47%0%5%
1,004 RV± 3.2%48%45%1%6%
Gravis Marketing October 3–4, 2014837± 3%50%46%—4%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20–October 1, 20141,444± 3%48%49%0%3%
Marquette University September 25–28, 2014585 LV± 4.1%51%45%1%4%
801 RV± 3.5%46%45%1%8%
Gravis Marketing Archived March 4, 2016, at the Wayback Machine September 22–23, 2014908± 3%45%50%—4%
Rasmussen Reports September 15–16, 2014650± 4%48%46%3%3%
Marquette University September 11–14, 2014589 LV± 4.1%49%46%1%4%
800 RV± 3.5%46%46%1%7%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18–September 2, 20141,473± 4%49%45%0%5%
We Ask America September 3, 20141,170 LV± 3%44%48%2%6%
Marquette University August 21–24, 2014609 LV± 4.1%47%49%1%4%
815 RV± 3.5%48%44%1%8%
Rasmussen Reports August 13–14, 2014750± 4%48%47%—5%
Gravis Marketing July 31–August 2, 20141,346± 3%47%47%—6%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 20141,968± ?47%46%1%5%
Marquette University July 17–20, 2014549 LV± 4.3%46%47%1%8%
804 RV± 3.5%46%45%1%8%
Marquette University May 15–18, 2014805± 3.5%46%46%—6%
Public Policy Polling April 17–20, 20141,144± 2.9%48%45%—7%
Magellan Strategies April 14–15, 2014851± 3.36%47%47%2%4%
St. Norbert College March 24–April 3, 2014401± 5%55%40%—5%
Marquette University March 20–23, 2014801± 3.5%48%41%—11%
Gravis Marketing March 17, 2014988± 4%49%44%—7%
Rasmussen Reports March 10–11, 2014500± 4.5%45%45%5%5%
Marquette University January 20–23, 2014802± 3.5%47%41%—8%
Marquette University October 21–24, 2013800± 3.5%47%45%—8%
Public Policy Polling September 13–16, 20131,180± 2.9%48%42%—10%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Scott
Walker (R)		Jon
Erpenbach (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 21–24, 20131,799± 2.3%48%42%—9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Scott
Walker (R)		Russ
Feingold (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 21–24, 20131,799± 2.3%47%49%—4%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Scott
Walker (R)		Mahlon
Mitchell (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 21–24, 20131,799± 2.3%48%39%—13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Scott
Walker (R)		Brett
Hulsey (D)		OtherUndecided
Marquette University May 15–18, 2014805± 3.5%48%39%—13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Scott
Walker (R)		Steve
Kagen (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 21–24, 20131,799± 2.3%48%41%—11%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Scott
Walker (R)		Tom
Nelson (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling September 13–16, 20131,180± 2.9%47%40%—12%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Scott
Walker (R)		Ron
Kind (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 21–24, 20131,799± 2.3%46%42%—11%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Scott
Walker (R)		Kathleen
Vinehout (D)		OtherUndecided
Marquette University October 21–24, 2013800± 3.5%47%44%—9%
Public Policy Polling September 13–16, 20131,180± 2.9%47%41%—10%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Scott
Walker (R)		Peter W.
Barca (D)		OtherUndecided
Marquette University October 21–24, 2013800± 3.5%48%42%—10%
Public Policy Polling September 13–16, 20131,180± 2.9%47%43%—10%
Public Policy Polling February 21–24, 20131,799± 2.3%48%43%—9%

Results

Wisconsin gubernatorial election, 2014 [34]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Scott Walker (incumbent) 1,259,706 52.26% -0.82%
Democratic Mary Burke 1,122,91346.59%+0.31%
Independent Robert Burke18,7200.78%N/A
Independent Dennis Fehr7,5300.31%N/A
Write-in 1,4450.06%0.00%
Total votes2,410,314 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional districts

Walker won 6 of the 8 congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat. [35]

DistrictWalkerBurkeRepresentative
1st 58.25%40.73% Paul Ryan
2nd 33.35%65.51% Mark Pocan
3rd 50.1%48.52% Ron Kind
4th 27.35%71.65% Gwen Moore
5th 67.64%31.53% Jim Sensenbrenner
6th 60.71%38.17% Glenn Grothman
7th 57.84%40.98% Sean Duffy
8th 60.16%38.76% Reid Ribble

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References

  1. ↑ Ostermeier, Eric (August 23, 2013). "Scott Walker's Ticket to Ride: Obama in the White House?". Smart Politics.
  2. ↑ Ostermeier, Eric (September 17, 2014). "Wisconsin Gubernatorial Pathways: How Does Burke's Measure Up?". Smart Politics.
  3. ↑ "8 firebrand GOP governors meet 2014's political reality". The Northwestern. June 5, 2013. Retrieved January 5, 2021.
  4. 1 2 "Official Election Results" (PDF). G.A.B. Canvass Reporting System. Retrieved September 1, 2014.
  5. ↑ Bauer, Scott (June 25, 2013). "Democrats testing potential candidacy of Mary Burke against Walker in 2014". Star Tribune. Retrieved June 27, 2013.
  6. 1 2 3 Craver, Jack (April 21, 2014). "Brett Hulsey running for Wisconsin governor: 'I promise you it will be very entertaining'". The Capital Times . Retrieved April 21, 2014.
  7. ↑ Schultze, Steve (February 26, 2013). "Citing rapport with Gov. Walker, Abele says he's not contemplating 2014 Democratic run for governor". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel . Retrieved August 8, 2013.
  8. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Stein, Jason (December 15, 2012). "Few Democrats lining up to challenge Walker in 2014". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel . Retrieved December 19, 2012.
  9. 1 2 3 4 Ross, JR (June 9, 2012). "2014 Dem field unclear as party looks to next shot at Walker". Wispolitics.com . Retrieved December 18, 2012.
  10. ↑ Umhoefer, Dave (June 4, 2013). "Barrett: Will Walker run for governor again?". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel . Retrieved June 8, 2013.
  11. ↑ Kertscher, Tom (March 18, 2013). "Run for governor? Brewer Deb Carey prefers suds to hot oil". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel . Retrieved August 8, 2013.
  12. 1 2 Penzenstadler, Nick; Opoien, Jessica (June 7, 2013). "Walker's next opponent could come from Northeastern Wisconsin". Green Bay Press-Gazette . Retrieved June 8, 2013.
  13. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Camp, Aaron (June 6, 2013). "Can a woman defeat Scott Walker in 2014? YES!!!". The Apollo Report. Retrieved August 15, 2013.
  14. 1 2 3 4 Camp, Aaron (August 12, 2013). "Is a competitive Democratic primary for Governor of Wisconsin inevitable?". The Prairie Badger. Retrieved August 15, 2013.
  15. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Penzenstadler, Nick; Opoien, Jessie (June 7, 2013). "Fox Valley's Nelson, Harris could present challenge to Walker in 2014". The Post-Crescent . Retrieved August 8, 2013.
  16. 1 2 Adair, Paul (July 2, 2013). "Who Will be Elected Governor in 2014". Germantown Now. Retrieved August 26, 2013.
  17. ↑ Walker, Don (June 7, 2013). "Russ Feingold teases Democrats about 2016 Senate run". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel . Retrieved June 8, 2013.
  18. ↑ Glauber, Bill (August 30, 2013). "Winnebago County Exec Mark Harris declines run for governor". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel . Retrieved August 30, 2013.
  19. ↑ "WI-Gov: Sara Johann considering run". Daily Kos . May 24, 2013. Retrieved August 8, 2013.
  20. ↑ Beckett, Andrew (June 8, 2013). "Kind says no plans to run for governor". Wisconsin Radio Network. Retrieved June 8, 2013.
  21. ↑ Patrick Marley (January 17, 2014). "Kathleen Vinehout announces she won't run for governor". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved January 17, 2014.
  22. ↑ Stein, Jason (October 24, 2013). "EMILY's List endorses Mary Burke, could bring big campaign money". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel . Retrieved October 24, 2013.
  23. ↑ "ENDORSED CANDIDATES". ppawi.com. Retrieved November 7, 2013.
  24. ↑ DeFour, Matthew (October 22, 2013). "On Politics: Progressives United will support Mary Burke against Scott Walker". Wisconsin State Journal . Retrieved October 24, 2013.
  25. ↑ "Wisconsin League of Conservation Voters Endorses Mary Burke for Governor" (PDF). Wisconsin League of Conservation Voters. April 21, 2014. Retrieved April 21, 2014.
  26. ↑ Kertscher, Tom (February 14, 2014). "A Mary Burke and a Robert Burke running for governor?". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved April 4, 2014.
  27. ↑ Aarik Woods (March 19, 2014). "Local man launches campaign for governor's race". wqow.com. Retrieved April 10, 2014.
  28. ↑ Wagman, Jen (October 23, 2014). "State Rep. Brad Hulsey launches write-in campaign for governor". The Daily Cardinal. Retrieved October 28, 2014.
  29. ↑ Horne, Michael (June 8, 2013). "Ahoy! Pirate Party Will Rally Downtown". Urban Milwaukee. Retrieved June 13, 2013.
  30. ↑ "2014 Governor Race Ratings for November 3, 2014". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
  31. ↑ "The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 3, 2014. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
  32. ↑ "2014 Gubernatorial Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
  33. ↑ "2014 Elections Map - 2014 Governors Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
  34. ↑ "gab.wi.gov" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on April 4, 2016. Retrieved December 4, 2014.
  35. ↑ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
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