2014 United States Senate election in West Virginia

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2014 United States Senate election in West Virginia
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  Shelley moore capito (cropped).jpg NatalieTennant7 (cropped).jpg
Nominee Shelley Moore Capito Natalie Tennant
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote281,820156,360
Percentage62.12%34.47%
2014 United States Senate election in West Virginia results map by county.svg
2014 US Senate Election in West Virginia by Congressional District.svg
Moore Capito:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
U.S. senator before election

Jay Rockefeller
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Shelley Moore Capito
Republican

The 2014 United States Senate election in West Virginia was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of West Virginia, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. This election was the fifth consecutive even-number year in which a senate election was held in West Virginia after elections in 2006, 2008, 2010, and 2012.

Contents

Incumbent Democratic senator Jay Rockefeller decided to retire rather than run for reelection for a sixth term. The Democrats nominated Secretary of State of West Virginia Natalie Tennant and the Republicans nominated U.S. Representative Shelley Moore Capito. It was the thirteenth U.S. Senate election that involved two major party female nominees in U.S. history. [1]

Capito defeated Tennant and became the first female senator elected in West Virginia's history as well as the first Republican elected to the Senate from West Virginia since 1956, and their victory in this seat since 1942. [2] The results of this election were a near complete flip from 2008, in which Democrat Jay Rockefeller received 64% of the vote. This was the first open-seat non-special election since 1984.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

  • Sheirl Fletcher, former Republican State Delegate and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2008, 2010 and 2012 [6]

Declined

Endorsements

Natalie Tennant
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Sheirl
Fletcher		David
Harless		Natalie
Tennant		David
Wamsley		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling September 19–22, 2013600± 4%8%3%51%4%—34%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ralph
Baxter		Robin
Davis		Nick
Preservati		Natalie
Tennant		OtherUndecided
MBE Research May 1–2, 20132071%12%1%40%—38%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Robin
Davis		Carte
Goodwin		Nick
Rahall		OtherUndecided
Harper Polling Archived February 10, 2013, at the Wayback Machine January 21, 2013579± 4.07%17%8%38%—37%

Results

Results by county .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Tennant 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% West Virginia Senate Election Democratic primary, 2014.svg
Results by county
  Tennant
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Democratic primary results [36]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Natalie Tennant 104,598 77.95%
Democratic Dennis Melton15,81711.79%
Democratic David Wamsley13,77310.26%
Total votes134,188 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

  • Rick LeMasters, retired Marine officer and state employee [5] [6]
  • Pat McGeehan, former state delegate and former Air Force Intelligence Officer and Captain (running for House of Delegates) [38]
  • Scott Regan, Democratic candidate for the state senate in 2010 [5] [6]
  • Edwin Vanover, former Bramwell Police Chief and Democratic candidate for the House of Delegates in 2012 [6] [39]

Declined

Endorsements

Shelley Moore Capito
Politicians
Organizations
Newspapers
Individuals

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Shelley
Moore Capito		Rick
Lemasters		Pat
McGeehan		Patrick
Morrisey		Scott
Regan		Edwin
Vanover		Undecided
Harper Polling Archived February 10, 2013, at the Wayback Machine January 21, 2013462± 4.56%73%——10%——18%
Public Policy Polling September 19–22, 2013348± 5.3%72%5%4%—1%2%17%
Harper Polling September 24–25, 2013354± 5.21%77%—7%———16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Shelley
Moore Capito		Someone more
conservative		Undecided
Public Policy Polling September 19–22, 2013348± 5.3%65%21%14%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Shelley
Moore Capito		David
McKinley		Undecided
Harper Polling Archived February 10, 2013, at the Wayback Machine January 21, 2013462± 4.56%70.5%14.75%14.75%

Results

Republican primary results [36]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Shelley Moore Capito 74,655 87.50%
Republican Matthew Dodrill7,0728.29%
Republican Larry Butcher3,5954.21%
Total votes85,322 100.00%

Independents and third parties

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

General election

Debates

A televised debate between Tennant and Capito was held on October 7 in Charleston. [51]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [52] Likely R (flip)November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball [53] Safe R (flip)November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report [54] Safe R (flip)November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics [55] Likely R (flip)November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Natalie
Tennant (D)		Shelley Moore
Capito (R)		OtherUndecided
West Virginia Poll August 15–22, 2013400± 4.9%40%45%—15%
Public Policy Polling September 19–22, 20131,110± 2.9%36%50%—14%
Harper Polling September 24–25, 2013640± 3.87%34%51%—15%
Clarity Campaigns Archived February 23, 2014, at the Wayback Machine January 29–30, 20141,727± 2.35%39%45%—16%
Rasmussen Reports February 19–20, 2014500± 4.5%35%49%4%12%
Vox Populi Polling April 16–17, 2014571± 4.1%33%49%—19%
Rasmussen Reports May 14–15, 2014750± 4%39%48%5%9%
West Virginia Poll May 19–22, 2014400± 4.9%38%49%—13%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 20141,750± 2.7%40%47%1%11%
Rasmussen Reports August 19–20, 2014750± 4%33%50%—17%
West Virginia Poll Archived August 31, 2014, at the Wayback Machine August 15–23, 2014401± 4.9%37%54%—9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18 – September 2, 20141,284± 4%32%55%1%12%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20 – October 1, 20141,066± 4%33%56%1%9%
Rasmussen Reports September 30 – October 1, 2014750± 4%39%50%3%8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014877± 5%34%56%0%10%
Hypothetical polling
With Davis
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Robin
Davis (D)		Shelley Moore
Capito (R)		OtherUndecided
Harper Polling January 21, 20131,444± 2.58%24%51%—25%
MBE Research May 1–2, 2013406± 4.87%32%51%—18%
With Fletcher
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Sheirl
Fletcher (D)		Shelley Moore
Capito (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling September 19–22, 20131,110± 2.9%26%54%—20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Sheirl
Fletcher (D)		Pat
McGeehan (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling September 19–22, 20131,110± 2.9%24%27%—48%
With Goodwin
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Carte
Goodwin (D)		Shelley Moore
Capito (R)		OtherUndecided
Harper Polling January 21, 20131,444± 2.58%19%53%—28%
With Rahall
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Nick
Rahall (D)		Shelley Moore
Capito (R)		OtherUndecided
Harper Polling January 21, 20131,444± 2.58%32%50%—18%
With Rockefeller
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jay
Rockefeller (D)		Shelley Moore
Capito (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling September 30 – October 2, 2011932± 3.2%44%48%—7%
Repass & Partners August 22–25, 2012401± 4.9%44%48%—8%
With Tennant
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Natalie
Tennant (D)		Pat
McGeehan (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling September 19–22, 20131,110± 2.9%42%32%—26%

Results

2014 United States Senate election in West Virginia [56]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Shelley Moore Capito 281,820 62.12% +25.86%
Democratic Natalie Tennant 156,36034.47%-29.27%
Libertarian John Buckley 7,4091.63%N/A
Mountain Bob Henry Baber5,5041.21%N/A
Constitution Phil Hudok2,5660.57%N/A
Total votes453,659 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Capito won all three congressional districts. [57]

DistrictCapitoTennantRepresentative
1st 62.19%33.92% David McKinley
2nd 63.13%33.72% Alex Mooney
3rd 60.94%35.86% Evan Jenkins

See also

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References

  1. ↑ Ostermeier, Eric (September 17, 2013). "West Virginia 2014 US Senate Race to Feature Rare Matchup". Smart Politics.
  2. ↑ "Republican Shelley Moore Capito Wins Senate Seat in WV". ABC News. November 4, 2014.
  3. 1 2 3 Boucher, Dave (January 25, 2014). "No surprises in U.S. Senate race". Charleston Gazette-Mail . Retrieved January 25, 2014.
  4. ↑ Boucher, Dave (September 15, 2013). "Confirmed: Tennant announces Senate run Tuesday". Charleston Daily Mail . Retrieved September 15, 2013.[ permanent dead link ]
  5. 1 2 3 4 5 Messina, Lawrence (July 14, 2013). "2014 field growing in W.Va. federal races". Charleston Daily Mail . Archived from the original on July 25, 2013. Retrieved July 25, 2012.
  6. 1 2 3 4 "Candidate listing by office". West Virginia Secretary of State. February 16, 2014. Retrieved February 16, 2014.
  7. ↑ "Preservati out of Senate race". WV Metro News. June 3, 2013. Retrieved June 4, 2013.
  8. ↑ "West Virginia: Caperton Says He Is Not Interested in Senate Seat". Roll Call. January 15, 2013. Archived from the original on January 27, 2013. Retrieved February 26, 2013.
  9. ↑ Ry Rivard [@ryrivard] (November 27, 2012). "Fmr WV D Chair & #WV02 candidate Mike Callaghan (in email my inbox ate Monday) = interested in Senate if Jay doesn't run & House if Jay does" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  10. ↑ Boucher, Dave (April 30, 2013). "Nick Casey launches 2014 US House run". Charleston Daily Mail . Archived from the original on May 7, 2013. Retrieved May 12, 2013.
  11. ↑ "Another Democrat passes on West Virginia Senate race". Washington Post. July 17, 2013. Retrieved July 17, 2013.
  12. ↑ Ali, Ann (November 8, 2013). "WV Auditor Glen Gainer announces run for Congress". State Journal. Archived from the original on December 17, 2013. Retrieved December 9, 2013.
  13. ↑ Kercheval, Hoppy (February 19, 2013). "2014 U.S. Senate race update". WVMetroNews.com. Retrieved February 20, 2013.
  14. ↑ Wilson, Reid (February 20, 2013). "Carte Goodwin out for 2014". WVMetroNews.com. Retrieved February 20, 2013.
  15. 1 2 "Nationwide, Republicans' Congressional Prospects Looking Bright for 2014". Sunshine State News. January 12, 2013. Archived from the original on January 14, 2013. Retrieved May 5, 2013.
  16. 1 2 Livingston, Abby (January 11, 2013). "West Virginia: Democrats Begin Positioning to Run for Rockefeller's Seat". Roll Call . Archived from the original on January 13, 2013. Retrieved January 12, 2013.
  17. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Nyden, Paul J. (September 17, 2013). "Tennant announces run for Senate". The Charleston Gazette . Retrieved December 9, 2013.
  18. ↑ Harold, Zack (June 3, 2013). "Preservati Out of the 2014 U.S. Senate Race". Charleston Daily Mail. Archived from the original on June 28, 2013. Retrieved June 26, 2013.
  19. ↑ Livingston, Abby (April 30, 2013). "Rahall Forgoes Senate Run". Roll Call. Archived from the original on May 3, 2013. Retrieved May 1, 2013.
  20. ↑ "West Virginia Democratic Sen. Jay Rockefeller won't run in 2014 - John Bresnahan". Politico.com. January 11, 2013. Retrieved January 11, 2013.
  21. ↑ "Allen Tackett not running for Jay Rockefeller's US Senate seat". Charleston Daily Mail. July 29, 2013. Archived from the original on August 1, 2013. Retrieved July 29, 2013.
  22. 1 2 "Rockefeller to retire, giving GOP a prime pickup opportunity". The Hill. January 11, 2013. Retrieved February 16, 2013.
  23. ↑ "West Virginia Senate: Democrats Look for Winner". rothenbergpoliticalreport.com. January 15, 2013. Retrieved January 17, 2013.
  24. ↑ "State Sen. Erik Wells says he won't run for Congress". Charleston Daily Mail. April 26, 2013. Archived from the original on May 15, 2013. Retrieved July 17, 2013.
  25. 1 2 Mattise, Jonathan (June 23, 2014). "Sen. Elizabeth Warren to campaign for Tennant in W.V". The Charleston Gazette . Archived from the original on September 18, 2014. Retrieved June 23, 2014.
  26. ↑ Boucher, Dave (November 19, 2013). "Michelle Obama backs Natalie Tennant in US Senate race". Charleston Daily Mail . Archived from the original on December 12, 2013. Retrieved December 9, 2013.
  27. ↑ Harold, Zack (November 26, 2013). "Tennant, Gainer, Rahall get early endorsements from AFT". Charleston Daily Mail . Archived from the original on December 12, 2013. Retrieved December 9, 2013.
  28. ↑ "Natalie Tennant (D-WV) for Senate". Council for a Livable World. Archived from the original on December 16, 2013. Retrieved December 9, 2013.
  29. ↑ "Natalie Tennant". Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. Archived from the original on June 22, 2014. Retrieved June 12, 2014.
  30. ↑ Jaffe, Alexandra (September 26, 2013). "EMILY's List endorses Tennant for W.Va. Senate". The Hill . Retrieved December 9, 2013.
  31. ↑ "The IADLC is proud to officially endorse..." Facebook. November 19, 2013. Retrieved December 9, 2013.
  32. ↑ Cama, Timothy (September 2, 2014). "Miners union backs Dem in W.Va. Senate race". The Hill . Retrieved September 23, 2015.
  33. ↑ "2014 Primary Election COPE Endorsements" (PDF). West Virginia AFL-CIO. 2014. Retrieved June 12, 2014.[ permanent dead link ]
  34. 1 2 "ICYMI: WEST VIRGINIA'S LARGEST NEWSPAPER ENDORSES TENNANT" (PDF). West Virginia Democrats. April 21, 2014. Archived from the original (PDF) on June 17, 2014. Retrieved June 11, 2014.
  35. ↑ "Natalie Tennant U.S. Senate, WV". Women's Political Committee. 2014. Retrieved June 12, 2014.[ permanent dead link ]
  36. 1 2 "Statewide Results Primary Election - May 13, 2014 ★★★ Official Results ★★★". West Virginia Secretary of State. Retrieved July 17, 2014.
  37. ↑ "Capito Will Challenge Rockefeller". Politicalwire.com. November 25, 2012. Archived from the original on November 29, 2012. Retrieved January 11, 2013.
  38. ↑ "Elections - Candidate Detail". West Virginia Secretary of State. January 25, 2014. Retrieved January 25, 2014.
  39. ↑ Johnson, Shauna (August 10, 2013). "Tennant for U.S. Senate?". West Virginia MetroNews . Retrieved August 12, 2013.
  40. ↑ "Former candidate Maloney not running for anything, launches think tank". The Charleston Gazette . May 30, 2013. Archived from the original on February 4, 2016. Retrieved August 28, 2013.
  41. ↑ Livingston, Abby (February 25, 2013). "West Virginia: McKinley Opts Not to Run Against Capito". Roll Call . Archived from the original on March 3, 2013. Retrieved February 26, 2013.
  42. ↑ "Capito Gets an Early Start on 2014 W.Va. Senate Race : Roll Call Politics". Rollcall.com. November 26, 2012. Retrieved January 11, 2013.
  43. 1 2 Twitter / CapitoforWV: Great to see County Commissioner
  44. ↑ Archived October 24, 2014, at the Wayback Machine
  45. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 "Endorsements for Shelley Moore Capito - Capito for Senate". Archived from the original on October 24, 2014. Retrieved August 28, 2013.
  46. ↑ Donald J. Trump [@realDonaldTrump] (July 30, 2014). "It's time for Mountain State to have a Senator who will stop Obama's war on coal. This November send DC a message, vote for @CapitoforWV!" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  47. ↑ "Mountain Party candidate makes 4 in Senate race". The Charleston Gazette . July 31, 2014. Archived from the original on August 10, 2014. Retrieved August 2, 2014.
  48. ↑ Cardosi, Mandi (June 12, 2014). "5 questions with Libertarian candidate for U.S. Senate John Buckley". State Journal . Archived from the original on July 15, 2014. Retrieved June 14, 2014.
  49. ↑ Winger, Richard (August 22, 2014). "West Virginia Secretary of State Says Constitution Party Petition for U.S. Senate is Valid". Ballot Access News. Archived from the original on September 3, 2014. Retrieved August 28, 2014.
  50. ↑ Boucher, Dave (April 25, 2013). "Former TV anchor to run for Senate". Charleston Daily Mail . Archived from the original on April 29, 2013. Retrieved May 12, 2013.
    "Facebook profile". Facebook.
  51. ↑ "Capito, Tennant, others to debate in October". West Virginia MetroNews. August 14, 2014. Retrieved August 14, 2014.
  52. ↑ "2014 Senate Race Ratings for November 3, 2014". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  53. ↑ "The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 3, 2014. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  54. ↑ "2014 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  55. ↑ "2014 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2014". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  56. ↑ "WV SOS - Elections - Election Results - Online Data Services". services.sos.wv.gov. Archived from the original on November 7, 2017. Retrieved December 17, 2014.
  57. ↑ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
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