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Turnout | 47.04% | ||||||||||||||||
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Manchin: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% Morrisey: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in West Virginia |
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The 2018 United States Senate election in West Virginia took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of West Virginia, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.
Incumbent Senator Joe Manchin was considered to be among the most vulnerable Democratic senators facing re-election in 2018 due to the state's deepening partisan lean and his declining popularity. Manchin ultimately won a second full term, though by a much narrower margin than his 2012 landslide.
West Virginia was once a Democratic stronghold at the state and federal level, but has been rapidly shifting towards the Republican Party since 2000. In 2008, John McCain defeated Barack Obama by a margin of 55–42%. From 1959 to 2015, West Virginia was exclusively represented in the U.S. Senate by Democrats.
In the 2012 presidential election, Mitt Romney defeated Obama 62–35% and swept every single county in the state. Despite this, Manchin was reelected in his own landslide over perennial candidate John Raese, receiving more than 60% of the vote and carrying all but three counties. Manchin’s 2012 re-election against Raese was a rematch between the two, as Manchin previously defeated Raese in the 2010 special election where he was first elected to the U.S. Senate.
In 2016, Donald Trump won the state by a greater than 40-point margin over Hillary Clinton (68–26%), with Clinton's performance being the worst for either party in the state's history. Trump also won every county in the state.
Concurrent with Trump's landslide victory in West Virginia, Democratic businessman Jim Justice won the gubernatorial election with 49% of the vote but changed his party affiliation back to Republican within a year (Justice had previously been a Republican prior to running as a Democrat for governor). Democrats lost almost every statewide office in the state in 2016, with State Treasurer John Perdue being the only statewide Democrat re-elected.
Because of the heavy Republican lean of his state, Manchin was ranked by many outlets as one of the most vulnerable incumbents up for reelection. President Trump headlined three rallies in the state on behalf of Manchin's opponent Patrick Morrisey. Manchin's vote to confirm Judge Brett Kavanaugh in his highly contentious confirmation hearing, making him the only Democrat to do so, garnered national attention and backlash from members of his own party just weeks before the midterm elections. [1] Despite the challenges to his re-election, Manchin leaned into his close personal ties to the state and emphasized his moderate views.
Although Manchin was seen as vulnerable during the lead-up to the election, polling considered him to be a slight favorite for most of the general election cycle.
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Turnout | 161,252 votes | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||||||||||
Results by county: Manchin 70–80% 60–70% 50–60% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Joe Manchin | Paula Jean Swearengin | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyMonkey (D-Swearengin) | September 2017 | 46% | 8% | 38% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Joe Manchin (incumbent) | 112,658 | 69.86% | |
Democratic | Paula Jean Swearengin | 48,594 | 30.14% | |
Total votes | 161,252 | 100% |
Host network | Date | Link(s) | Participants | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Evan Jenkins | Patrick Morrisey | Don Blankenship | Bo Copley | Jack Newbrough | Tom Willis | |||
Fox News | May 1, 2018 | [30] | Invited | Invited | Invited | – | – | – |
WVPB | April 23, 2018 | [31] | Invited | Invited | Invited | Invited | Invited | Invited |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Don Blankenship | Evan Jenkins | Patrick Morrisey | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Morrisey) | April 22–23, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 15% | 26% | 28% | – | 18% |
Fox News | April 18–22, 2018 | 985 | ± 3.0% | 16% | 25% | 21% | 8% [32] | 24% |
National Research Inc. (R-GOPAC) Archived April 24, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | April 17–19, 2018 | 411 | ± 4.9% | 12% | 20% | 24% | 5% [33] | 39% |
Osage Research (R-Morrisey) | March 13, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 23% | 17% | 24% | 4% [34] | – |
Harper Polling (R-Jenkins) | March 5–6, 2018 | 400 | – | 27% | 29% | 19% | 10% [35] | 15% |
Harper Polling (R-Jenkins) | February 5–6, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 18% | 33% | 25% | 12% | 12% |
– | 42% | 36% | – | 22% | ||||
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R-35th PAC) | October 19–22, 2017 | 400 | ± 4.9% | – | 34% | 40% | – | 26% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Patrick Morrisey | 48,007 | 34.90% | |
Republican | Evan Jenkins | 40,185 | 29.21% | |
Republican | Don Blankenship | 27,478 | 19.97% | |
Republican | Tom Willis | 13,540 | 9.84% | |
Republican | Bo Copley | 4,248 | 3.09% | |
Republican | Jack Newbrough | 4,115 | 2.99% | |
Total votes | 137,573 | 100% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [43] | Lean D | October 26, 2018 |
Inside Elections [44] | Tilt D | November 1, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [45] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
CNN [46] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
RealClearPolitics [47] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
Daily Kos [48] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
Fox News [49] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
FiveThirtyEight [50] | Likely D | November 6, 2018 |
Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2018 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate (party) | Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand |
Joe Manchin (D) | $8,872,162 | $6,459,930 | $4,200,530 |
Patrick Morrisey (R) | $4,943,056 | $3,315,300 | $1,627,756 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [93] |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Manchin (D) | Patrick Morrisey (R) | Rusty Hollen (L) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | October 28–31, 2018 | 1,013 | ± 3.2% | 47% | 42% | 3% | – | 8% |
Research America Inc. | October 19–30, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 45% | 40% | 11% | – | 5% |
Strategic Research Associates Archived November 4, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | October 12–19, 2018 | 650 | ± 3.8% | 52% | 36% | 4% | – | 8% |
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R-NRSC) Archived October 24, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | October 16–18, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 42% | 44% | 3% | – | 12% |
45% | 47% | – | – | 8% | ||||
Vox Populi Polling | October 13–15, 2018 | 789 | ± 3.5% | 53% | 47% | – | – | – |
The Polling Company (R-Citizens United) | October 11–13, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 49% | 45% | – | 2% | 3% |
Public Opinion Strategies (R-NRSC) | October 7–9, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 41% | 40% | 8% | – | – |
Strategic Research Associates [ permanent dead link ] | September 17–26, 2018 | 650 | ± 3.8% | 46% | 38% | 3% | – | 13% |
1892 Polling (R-Morrisey) | September 24–25, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 45% | 45% | – | – | 10% |
The Tarrance Group (R-SLF) | September 23–25, 2018 | 612 | ± 4.1% | 47% | 43% | 5% | – | 5% |
Global Strategy Group (D-Manchin) | September 19–23, 2018 | 601 | ± 4.0% | 48% | 36% | 4% | – | – |
Emerson College | September 13–15, 2018 | 825 | ± 3.5% | 45% | 33% | – | 6% | 16% |
Harper Polling (R-35th PAC) | August 23–26, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 41% | – | – | 12% |
Research America Inc. | August 16–26, 2018 | 404 | ± 4.9% | 46% | 38% | – | – | 16% |
Trafalgar Group (R) | July 13–16, 2018 | 1,158 | ± 2.9% | 50% | 40% | 2% | – | 8% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 892 | ± 5.5% | 53% | 40% | – | – | 6% |
Monmouth University | June 14–19, 2018 | 653 | ± 3.8% | 49% | 42% | – | 3% | 6% |
Public Policy Polling | June 12–13, 2018 | 633 | – | 49% | 42% | – | – | 9% |
Hart Research Associates (D-DSCC) | May 15–16, 2018 | 602 | ± 4.0% | 52% | 40% | – | – | – |
Global Strategy Group (D-Manchin) | May 13–16, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 50% | 42% | – | – | – |
47% | 40% | 4% | – | – | ||||
WPA Intelligence (R) | May 10, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 44% | 46% | – | – | 11% |
Zogby Analytics | September 27–30, 2017 | 320 | ± 5.5% | 45% | 38% | – | – | 17% |
Research America Inc. | August 11–20, 2017 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 51% | 37% | – | – | 12% |
Harper Polling Archived November 30, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | November 16–17, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 57% | 35% | – | – | 8% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Manchin (D) | Patrick Morrisey (R) | Don Blankenship (C) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Research America Inc. | August 16–26, 2018 | 404 | ± 4.9% | 45% | 34% | 8% | – | 13% |
Monmouth University | June 14–19, 2018 | 653 | ± 3.8% | 48% | 39% | 4% | 2% | 6% |
Public Policy Polling | June 12–13, 2018 | 633 | – | 46% | 35% | 11% | – | 7% |
Gravis Marketing | May 22, 2018 | 543 | ± 4.2% | 51% | 39% | 5% | – | – |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Manchin (D) | Generic Republican | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
National Research Inc. (R-GOPAC) Archived April 24, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | April 17–19, 2018 | – | – | 37% | 41% | 20% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios | February 12 – March 5, 2018 | 1,591 | ± 3.5% | 43% | 52% | 5% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Manchin (D) | Evan Jenkins (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zogby Analytics | September 27–30, 2017 | 320 | ± 5.5% | 49% | 36% | 15% |
Research America Inc. | August 11–20, 2017 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 50% | 40% | 10% |
Harper Polling Archived November 30, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | November 16–17, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 51% | 39% | 10% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Manchin (D) | Alex Mooney (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zogby Analytics | September 27–30, 2017 | 320 | ± 5.5% | 49% | 35% | 17% |
Harper Polling Archived November 30, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | November 16–17, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 58% | 28% | 14% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Manchin (D) | David McKinley (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Harper Polling Archived November 30, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | November 16–17, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 54% | 34% | 12% |
Public Policy Polling | April 29 – May 1, 2016 | 1,201 | ± 2.8% | 46% | 36% | 18% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Carte Goodwin (D) | David McKinley (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Harper Polling Archived November 30, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | November 16–17, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 36% | 42% | 22% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Generic Democrat | Generic Republican | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
National Research Inc. (R-GOPAC) Archived April 24, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | April 17–19, 2018 | – | – | 37% | 49% | 4% | 11% |
Zogby Analytics | September 27–30, 2017 | 320 | ± 5.5% | 35% | 40% | 6% | 19% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Carte Goodwin (D) | Alex Mooney (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Harper Polling Archived November 30, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | November 16–17, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 41% | 31% | 28% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Carte Goodwin (D) | Evan Jenkins (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Harper Polling Archived November 30, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | November 16–17, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 31% | 43% | 25% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Carte Goodwin (D) | Patrick Morrisey (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Harper Polling Archived November 30, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | November 16–17, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 39% | 43% | 18% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Joe Manchin (incumbent) | 290,510 | 49.57% | -12.00% | |
Republican | Patrick Morrisey | 271,113 | 46.26% | +9.79% | |
Libertarian | Rusty Hollen | 24,411 | 4.17% | N/A | |
Total votes | 586,034 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Democratic hold | |||||
Manchin won all three congressional districts, all of which elected Republicans. [95]
District | Manchin | Morrisey | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 49% | 45% | David McKinley |
2nd | 50% | 46% | Alex Mooney |
3rd | 49% | 47% | Evan Jenkins (115th Congress) |
Carol Miller (116th Congress) |
All results are from the office of the Secretary of State of West Virginia. [96]
County | Candidate | Total votes | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Joe Manchin | Patrick Morrisey | Rusty Hollen | |||||
% | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | ||
Barbour | 42.98% | 2,121 | 51.91% | 2,562 | 5.11% | 252 | 4,935 |
Berkeley | 42.63% | 14,508 | 53.21% | 18,111 | 4.16% | 1,416 | 34,035 |
Boone | 57.12% | 3,894 | 39.75% | 2,710 | 3.12% | 213 | 6,817 |
Braxton | 51.24% | 2,148 | 45.01% | 1,887 | 3.75% | 157 | 4,192 |
Brooke | 50.93% | 3,987 | 44.88% | 3,513 | 4.19% | 328 | 7,828 |
Cabell | 58.18% | 16,909 | 38.77% | 11,267 | 3.05% | 885 | 29,061 |
Calhoun | 45.34% | 967 | 49.93% | 1,065 | 4.74% | 101 | 2,133 |
Clay | 46.92% | 1,141 | 49.22% | 1,197 | 3.87% | 94 | 2,432 |
Doddridge | 33.77% | 746 | 61.20% | 1,352 | 5.02% | 111 | 2,209 |
Fayette | 53.19% | 6,502 | 42.22% | 5,160 | 4.59% | 561 | 12,223 |
Gilmer | 47.22% | 944 | 46.47% | 929 | 6.30% | 126 | 1,999 |
Grant | 24.04% | 935 | 72.49% | 2,820 | 3.47% | 135 | 3,890 |
Greenbrier | 50.78% | 6,201 | 45.55% | 5,563 | 3.67% | 448 | 12,212 |
Hampshire | 33.80% | 2,325 | 62.71% | 4,313 | 3.49% | 240 | 6,878 |
Hancock | 46.53% | 4,707 | 49.06% | 4,963 | 4.42% | 447 | 10,117 |
Hardy | 41.41% | 1,880 | 54.34% | 2,467 | 4.25% | 193 | 4,540 |
Harrison | 51.05% | 11,491 | 42.25% | 9,512 | 6.70% | 1,508 | 22,511 |
Jackson | 47.89% | 4,890 | 48.61% | 4,964 | 3.50% | 357 | 10,211 |
Jefferson | 51.32% | 10,666 | 45.04% | 9,360 | 3.64% | 756 | 20,782 |
Kanawha | 61.58% | 39,333 | 35.27% | 22,527 | 3.16% | 2,018 | 63,878 |
Lewis | 41.64% | 2,326 | 51.54% | 2,879 | 6.82% | 381 | 5,586 |
Lincoln | 51.40% | 2,899 | 45.27% | 2,553 | 3.33% | 188 | 5,640 |
Logan | 47.74% | 4,574 | 49.13% | 4,708 | 3.13% | 300 | 9,582 |
Marion | 56.23% | 10,889 | 37.59% | 7,280 | 6.18% | 1,197 | 19,366 |
Marshall | 50.84% | 5,485 | 45.12% | 4,868 | 4.04% | 436 | 10,789 |
Mason | 51.06% | 4,270 | 45.50% | 3,805 | 3.44% | 288 | 8,363 |
McDowell | 48.67% | 2,222 | 48.15% | 2,198 | 3.18% | 145 | 4,565 |
Mercer | 41.19% | 7,430 | 55.62% | 10,033 | 3.20% | 577 | 18,040 |
Mineral | 34.79% | 3,108 | 61.84% | 5,525 | 3.37% | 301 | 8,934 |
Mingo | 42.13% | 2,929 | 55.02% | 3,825 | 2.85% | 198 | 6,952 |
Monongalia | 58.20% | 18,010 | 35.28% | 10,918 | 6.52% | 2,019 | 30,947 |
Monroe | 43.09% | 2,125 | 53.61% | 2,644 | 3.30% | 163 | 4,932 |
Morgan | 34.54% | 2,143 | 60.98% | 3,783 | 4.48% | 278 | 6,204 |
Nicholas | 45.75% | 3,588 | 50.34% | 3,948 | 3.91% | 307 | 7,843 |
Ohio | 55.18% | 8,731 | 41.64% | 6,588 | 3.19% | 504 | 15,823 |
Pendleton | 37.65% | 948 | 58.70% | 1,478 | 3.65% | 92 | 2,518 |
Pleasants | 45.88% | 1,157 | 50.20% | 1,266 | 3.93% | 99 | 2,522 |
Pocahontas | 44.59% | 1,269 | 49.58% | 1,411 | 5.83% | 166 | 2,846 |
Preston | 35.56% | 3,686 | 57.34% | 5,943 | 7.10% | 736 | 10,365 |
Putnam | 49.31% | 10,513 | 47.33% | 10,090 | 3.36% | 716 | 21,319 |
Raleigh | 43.86% | 10,581 | 52.31% | 12,620 | 3.84% | 926 | 24,127 |
Randolph | 50.27% | 4,472 | 45.16% | 4,017 | 4.58% | 407 | 8,896 |
Ritchie | 33.85% | 1,082 | 61.36% | 1,961 | 4.79% | 153 | 3,196 |
Roane | 51.30% | 2,165 | 45.00% | 1,899 | 3.70% | 156 | 4,220 |
Summers | 50.62% | 2,069 | 45.71% | 1,868 | 3.67% | 150 | 4,087 |
Taylor | 44.91% | 2,376 | 49.94% | 2,642 | 5.14% | 272 | 5,290 |
Tucker | 46.90% | 1,469 | 47.96% | 1,502 | 5.14% | 161 | 3,132 |
Tyler | 38.00% | 1,065 | 57.19% | 1,603 | 4.82% | 135 | 2,803 |
Upshur | 41.17% | 3,102 | 53.23% | 4,010 | 5.60% | 422 | 7,534 |
Wayne | 50.34% | 6,395 | 46.87% | 5,954 | 2.79% | 355 | 12,704 |
Webster | 45.03% | 1,033 | 48.82% | 1,120 | 6.15% | 141 | 2,294 |
Wetzel | 50.91% | 2,518 | 43.17% | 2,135 | 5.92% | 293 | 4,946 |
Wirt | 42.22% | 790 | 53.71% | 1,005 | 4.06% | 76 | 1,871 |
Wood | 48.88% | 14,189 | 47.19% | 13,696 | 3.93% | 1,141 | 29,026 |
Wyoming | 44.27% | 2,607 | 52.57% | 3,096 | 3.16% | 186 | 5,889 |
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