2018 United States Senate election in Michigan

Last updated

2018 United States Senate election in Michigan
Flag of Michigan.svg
  2012 November 6, 2018 2024  
Turnout56.72%
  Debbie Stabenow, official photo, 116th Congress (1).jpg John James 3 (1).png
Nominee Debbie Stabenow John James
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote2,214,4781,938,818
Percentage52.26%45.76%

2018 United States Senate election in Michigan results map by county.svg
MI-2018-sen-districts.svg
MI Senate 2018 State House Districts.svg
MI Senate 2018 Precinct Results No Outlines.svg
Stabenow:     40-50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
James:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Tie:      40–50%
     No data

U.S. senator before election

Debbie Stabenow
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Debbie Stabenow
Democratic

The 2018 United States Senate election in Michigan took place on November 6, 2018, in order to elect the Class 1 U.S. Senator from the State of Michigan, concurrently with a gubernatorial election, as well as other elections to the U.S. House of Representatives.

Contents

Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow won reelection to a fourth term. On August 7, 2018, John James won the Republican nomination, defeating businessman Sandy Pensler. [1] On May 5, 2018, Marcia Squier received the endorsement and nomination of the Green Party of Michigan at the state convention in Flint. [2]

Stabenow was re-elected by a 6.5% margin and a difference of 275,660 votes, [3] making this the second-closest U.S. Senate election in Michigan since Stabenow was first elected in 2000. [4]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Declined

Withdrew

  • Craig Allen Smith

Endorsements

Results

Democratic primary results [14]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Debbie Stabenow (incumbent) 1,045,450 100.00%
Total votes1,045,450 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Defeated in primary

  • Sandy Pensler, former Wayne County Commissioner, businessman and candidate for MI-08 in 1992 [17] [16]

Failed to qualify

  • Bob Carr, historic preservationist, businessman and nominee for MI-01 in 1996 [18] [16]

Declined

Withdrew

Endorsements

John James
U.S. President
U.S. Vice President
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
U.S. Governors
State Senators [38] [39] [40]
State Representatives [38]
Judges
Cabinet-level officials
  • John R. Bolton, former United States Ambassador to the United Nations, current National Security Advisor [42]
Individuals
Local officials
Organizations
Newspapers
Sandy Pensler
Bob Young Jr. (endorsed James)
Individuals

Debates

A debate was held between John James and Sandy Pensler on July 6 and televised by WKAR-TV. It was the only televised debate scheduled between the two candidates. [69]

Polling

Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
John
James
Sandy
Pensler
OtherUndecided
Mitchell Research July 30, 2018413± 5.0%44%30%26%
EPIC-MRA July 21–22, 20181,045± 3.1%39%38%23%
Emerson College Archived 2018-07-31 at the Wayback Machine July 19–21, 2018202± 7.3%28%28%44%
Marist College July 15–19, 2018337± 6.3%30%23%1%46%
National Research Inc. (R-Outsider PAC) July 11–14, 2018600± 4.0%21%28%10%41%
Target-Insyght June 24–26, 2018400± 5.0%29%32%39%
Strategic National (R) June 16–21, 20181,000± 3.1%18%33%49%
Strategic National (R) June 9–10, 2018400± 4.9%16%29%54%
Marketing Resource Group (R-Pensler) May 28–29, 2018627± 3.8%26%36%38%
Strategic National (R) April 21, 2018350± 5.2%13%26%61%
Strategic National (R) April 4–5, 2018600± 4.0%12%20%68%
Denno Research April 2–3, 2018500± 4.0%12%16%72%
Strategic National (R) March 19–20, 2018400± 4.9%17%21%62%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
John
James
Sandy
Pensler
Fred
Upton
Robert
Young
Undecided
Strategic National (R) December 16–17, 2017600± 4.0%9%5%11%75%
Target-Insyght November 1–6, 20171,00024%19%7%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Lena
Epstein
Bob
Young
John
James
Robert
Ritchie
Undecided
Zogby Analytics September, 2017 [lower-alpha 1] 7%3%5%29%56%
Trafalgar Group (R) July 25–27, 20171,078± 3.1%9%6%7%50%28%
Target-Insyght July 25–27, 2017344± 5.358%14%16%33%29%

Results

Results by county:
James
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50-60%
60-70%
Pensler
50-60%
60-70% Michigan Senate Republican Primary Election Results by County, 2018.svg
Results by county:
James
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Pensler
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Republican primary results [14]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican John James 518,564 54.67%
Republican Sandy Pensler429,88545.32%
Write-in 57<0.01%
Total votes948,506 100.00%

Green Party Convention

The Green Party of Michigan picked their candidates at a state convention on May 5, 2018.

Declared

Withdrew

General election

Debates

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party)Total receiptsTotal disbursementsCash on hand
Debbie Stabenow (D)$17,449,325.17$15,720,981.25$2,842,613.58
John James (R)$9,838,137.84$7,953,403.16$1,884,735.02
Source: Federal Election Commission [73]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [74] Likely DOctober 26, 2018
Inside Elections [75] Safe DNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [76] Safe DNovember 5, 2018
CNN [77] Likely DNovember 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics [78] Lean DNovember 5, 2018
Fox News [79] [lower-alpha 2] Likely DNovember 5, 2018
Notes
  1. Not yet released, but is Republican primary subsample of full 800 voter sample in Michigan
  2. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Endorsements

Debbie Stabenow (D)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Organizations
Individuals
John James (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
U.S. Governors
State Senators [38] [39] [40]
State Representatives [38]
Judges
Cabinet-level officials
  • John R. Bolton, former United States Ambassador to the United Nations, current National Security Advisor [42]
Individuals
Local officials
Organizations
Newspapers

Polling

2018 Senate election in Michigan polling.png


Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Debbie
Stabenow (D)
John
James (R)
OtherUndecided
Mitchell Research November 5, 2018827± 3.4%49%46%1%4%
The Trafalgar Group (R) November 2–5, 20181,817± 2.3%53%44%1%2%
Mitchell Research November 4, 2018701± 3.7%53%46%0%1%
Change Research November 2–4, 201888049%47%3% [97]
Research Co. November 1–3, 2018450± 4.6%52%36%1%11%
Gravis Marketing October 29–30, 2018764± 3.6%54%41%6%
Glengariff Group October 25–27, 2018600± 4.0%53%36%3% [98] 8%
Emerson College October 24–26, 2018822± 3.6%52%43%1%4%
Mitchell Research October 25, 2018400± 5.0%52%46%0%2%
Target-Insyght Archived 2018-11-07 at the Wayback Machine October 22–24, 2018800± 3.0%53%43%4% [99] 1%
EPIC-MRA October 18–23, 2018600± 4.0%49%42%5%4%
The Tarrance Group (R) [upper-alpha 1] October 20–22, 2018605± 4.1%48%41%4%7%
Michigan State University October 13–22, 201816949%42%
Marketing Resource Group Archived 2018-10-24 at the Wayback Machine October 14–18, 2018600± 4.0%53%37%5%
Mitchell Research September 30 – October 7, 2018654± 3.8%51%42%8%
Glengariff Group September 30 – October 2, 2018600± 4.0%53%35%3%10%
EPIC-MRA Archived 2018-09-28 at the Wayback Machine September 21–25, 2018600± 4.0%56%33%5%6%
Ipsos September 14–24, 20181,150± 3.0%55%35%4%6%
Target-Insyght [ permanent dead link ]September 10–14, 2018800± 3.0%55%40%
Mitchell Research September 12–13, 20181,009± 3.0%54%41%5%
Strategic National (R) September 8–9, 20181,000± 3.1%53%35%11%
Glengariff Group September 5–7, 2018600± 4.0%56%33%2%10%
Gravis Marketing August 14–16, 2018647± 3.9%51%35%14%
Strategic National (R) August 13–14, 2018700± 3.7%50%35%2%13%
The Tarrance Group (R) [upper-alpha 1] August 11–14, 2018602± 4.1%49%38%3%9%
Emerson College Archived 2018-07-31 at the Wayback Machine July 19–21, 2018600± 4.3%47%29%8%17%
Marist College July 15–19, 2018886± 3.9%55%37%1%8%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018978± 5.0%54%42%4%
Glengariff Group January 16–19, 2018600± 4.0%51%30%18%
Hypothetical polling
with Sandy Pensler
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Debbie
Stabenow (D)
Sandy
Pensler (R)
OtherUndecided
Emerson College Archived 2018-07-31 at the Wayback Machine July 19–21, 2018600± 4.3%48%32%7%13%
Marist College July 15–19, 2018886± 3.9%52%37%1%10%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018978± 5.0%53%41%5%
Glengariff Group January 16–19, 2018600± 4.0%51%30%18%
with generic Democrat and Republican
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Debbie
Stabenow (D)
Generic
Republican
Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios February 12 – March 5, 20182,012± 3.8%49%45%6%
with Robert Ritchie (a.k.a. Kid Rock)
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Debbie
Stabenow (D)
Robert
Ritchie (R)
Undecided
Mitchell/Rosetta Stone October 1, 2017558± 4.2%46%38%16%
Zogby Analytics September 19, 2017800± 3.4%46%36%18%
Marketing Resource Group September 13–18, 2017600± 4.0%52%34%14%
Target-Insyght July 25–27, 2017822± 3.5%50%42%8%
Trafalgar Group (R) July 25–27, 20171,078± 3.1%46%49%5%

Results

Although Stabenow ended up winning the election by 6.5 percent, the margin was smaller than expected, considering the polling and past results of Senate elections in Michigan. [4] Part of the relative closeness of the race has been attributed to the Stabenow campaign having run no negative ads against James during the election. [100] Although James won most of Michigan's smaller counties, Stabenow won large margins in urban areas and modest margins in suburban areas. Stabenow trounced James in Wayne County, home of Detroit, and also performed well in Detroit's suburbs. She also easily won in Washtenaw County, home of Ann Arbor and Ingham County, home of Lansing. Kent County, home of Grand Rapids, also narrowly flipped to Stabenow, making this the first Senate election of her career in which she carried the county, and also the only county to flip her direction in 2018, and only the second time (after Carl Levin in 2008) a Democrat had carried the county since Donald Riegle in 1982. In addition to Stabenow's win, Democrats won the previously Republican-held offices of governor, secretary of state, and attorney general, ensuring that as of January 1, 2019, all elected statewide officials would be Democrats. James once again ran unsuccessfully for the other Senate seat in 2020, as he was defeated by incumbent Gary Peters. James would later be elected as a representative in Michigan's 10th congressional district in 2022.

2018 United States Senate election in Michigan [101]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Debbie Stabenow (incumbent) 2,214,478 52.26% -6.54%
Republican John James 1,938,81845.76%+7.78%
Green Marcia Squier40,2040.95%+0.35%
Constitution George Huffman III27,2510.65%+0.09%
Natural Law John Howard Wilhelm16,5020.39%+0.15%
Write-in 18<0.01%N/A
Total votes4,237,271 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Both Stabenow and James won 7 of 14 congressional districts. [102]

DistrictJamesStabenowRepresentative
1st 54.39%43.44% Jack Bergman
2nd 55.19%42.52% Bill Huizenga
3rd 51.08%46.67% Justin Amash
4th 56.73%41.01% John Moolenaar
5th 43.05%54.73% Dan Kildee
6th 50.37%47.18% Fred Upton
7th 52.94%45.02% Tim Walberg
8th 49.0%49.37% Elissa Slotkin
9th 39.7%58.46% Andy Levin
10th 58.1%40.1% Paul Mitchell
11th 47.76%50.87% Haley Stevens
12th 31.93%66.32% Debbie Dingell
13th 17.8%79.87% Rashida Tlaib
14th 19.55%78.9% Brenda Lawrence

Notes

    Partisan clients
    1. 1 2 Poll conducted for James' campaign.

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    29. 1 2 Mike Pence. "Proud to support @JohnJamesMI for U.S. Senate. Leaders like John are the FUTURE of the GOP. I know he will be a strong champion of @RealDonaldTrump's agenda. To the great people of Michigan - get out & vote Aug 7 for John!". Twitter.
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    37. 1 2 John James. "Thank you, @OneToughNerd & @RPA_PAC for supporting our mission of protecting the American Dream for future generations!💪 I look forwarding to working to bring economic opportunity and national security to everyone across Michigan! 🇺🇸 #LetsFlyMI". Twitter.
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    49. 1 2 John James. ".@KidRock: "I'm 100% here to endorse, and do everything I can, to make sure John James gets in the Senate." #LetsFlyMI #TeamJohnJames #MISen". Twitter.
    50. 1 2 Donald Trump Jr. "Excited to see @JohnJamesMI and @SchuetteOnDuty win big tonight in Michigan. They're both great candidates who are #MAGA to the core. #MISEN #MIGOV". Twitter.
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    55. 1 2 John James. "PROUD to have the endorsement of Sterling Heights Mayor, Michael Taylor. MACOMB COUNTY is JAMES COUNTRY!". Twitter.
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    81. Debbie Stabenow. "Thanks @BarackObama! #MiSen #MadeInMichigan". Twitter.
    82. Gary Peters. "I can't think of anyone who works harder or cares more deeply about her state than @Stabenow. I would know: I've seen her focus, hard-work & effectiveness up close in the Senate. I can't wait to vote for my good friend. Read about why I'm supporting her". Twitter.
    83. Joe Kennedy. "In just 6 short weeks, young Americans can change the trajectory of this nation. Grateful to @CollegeDemsatUM for showing up on a Wednesday morning and for fighting to be proud of the country they call home. #DemsLIVE". Twitter.
    84. Dan Kildee. "We deserve leaders who understand that a strong middle class means a strong country. We deserve leaders who will protect Social Security and Medicare and expand access to affordable health care. That's why we deserve @GretchenWhitmer, @Stabenow & Democrats up and down the ballot". Twitter.
    85. Brenda Lawrence. "Attended four churches in Pontiac today with our United States Senator Debbie @Stabenow, my mentor and dear friend. I am so excited to vote for her November 6th and I hope you join me! #TeamBrenda #PrayersUp @TeamStabenow". Twitter.
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    90. Rudy Giuliani. "Don James is running for Senate in Michigan. He is a combat veteran, a successful business man and believes in lower taxes, more jobs, effective health care and safety and security. He's the future of our party. Let's make that future now.. Vote for Don James". Twitter.
    91. Rudy Giuliani. "Sorry for the mistake with JOHN JAMES first name but you'd be making one if you don't elect him to Senate from Michigan.The tweet was not planned but spontaneous.I saw his interview and record-military, business-and said this is a true leader,not the same old. He's exceptional". Twitter.
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    93. Peterson, Jordan B. (October 11, 2018). "I met John James in New York and he is one impressive character: a truly powerful, direct speaker @JohnJamesMI".
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    97. George E. Huffman III (U.S. Taxpayers), Marcia Squier (G), and John Howard Wilhelm (Natural Law) with 1%
    98. George E. Huffman III (U.S. Taxpayers), Marcia Squier (G) with 1%, John Howard Wilhelm (Natural Law) with 0%
    99. Marcia Squier (G) with 2%, George Huffman (U.S. Taxpayers) and John Howard Wilhelm (Natural Law) with 1%
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