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Turnout | 71.53% (of registered voters) [1] | ||||||||||||||||
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Tester: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Rosendale: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Montana |
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The 2018 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Montana, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. Incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester was reelected to a third term, defeating Republican State Auditor Matt Rosendale. Rosendale conceded on November 7, 2018. [2] This was the first Senate election in which Tester received a majority of votes cast rather than a simple plurality.
Following his loss, Rosendale went on to run for Montana’s vacant congressional seat in 2020 and won, taking office in the U.S. House of Representatives in January 2021.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Jon Tester (incumbent) | 114,948 | 100.00% | |
Total votes | 114,948 | 100.00% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Troy Downing | Russell Fagg | Al Olszewski | Matt Rosendale | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WPA Intelligence (R-Club for Growth) | April 15–16, 2018 | 503 | ± 4.4% | 12% | 17% | 8% | 40% | – | 23% |
WPA Intelligence (R-Rosendale) | February 5–7, 2018 | 401 | ± 4.4% | 12% | 11% | 5% | 28% | 1% [41] | – |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Matt Rosendale | 51,859 | 33.82% | |
Republican | Russ Fagg | 43,465 | 28.34% | |
Republican | Troy Downing | 29,341 | 19.13% | |
Republican | Al Olszewski | 28,681 | 18.70% | |
Total votes | 153,346 | 100.00% |
In October 2018, Breckenridge told a reporter from the Associated Press that he opposed the use of dark money in politics. Breckenridge said that he realistically anticipated only receiving three or four percent of the vote in the general election, and that he endorsed Rosendale's efforts to stop the use of dark money in politics. [43] The Associated Press interpreted Breckenridge's comments as a statement that Breckenridge was dropping out of the race and endorsing Rosendale. [43] Breckenridge later stated that his use of the word "endorse" referred only to stopping the use of dark money in politics, and said he was still running for the Senate. [44] [45] [46]
Kelly won the Green Party nomination, but a Montana district court judge ruled that he had insufficient signatures to get on the ballot. [47]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Green | Steve Kelly | 971 | 61.22% | |
Green | Timothy Adams | 615 | 38.78% | |
Total votes | 1,586 | 100% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [49] | Tossup | October 26, 2018 |
Inside Elections [50] | Tilt D | November 1, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [51] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
Daily Kos [52] | Tossup | November 1, 2018 |
Fox News [53] | Lean D | November 1, 2018 |
CNN [54] | Lean D | November 1, 2018 |
RealClearPolitics [55] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
FiveThirtyEight [56] | Likely D | November 6, 2018 |
Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate (party) | Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand |
Jon Tester (D) | $19,499,290 | $17,946,600 | $1,612,530 |
Matt Rosendale (R) | $5,034,075 | $4,515,910 | $524,379 |
Rick Breckenridge (L) | - | - | - |
Source: Federal Election Commission [79] |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jon Tester (D) | Matt Rosendale (R) | Rick Breckenridge (L) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Trafalgar Group (R) | November 2–5, 2018 | 953 | ± 3.2% | 50% | 49% | – | 1% | 0% |
HarrisX | November 1–5, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 50% | 42% | – | – | – |
Change Research | November 2–4, 2018 | 879 | – | 46% | 49% | 3% | – | – |
HarrisX | October 31 – November 4, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 49% | 43% | – | – | – |
HarrisX | October 30 – November 3, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 49% | 43% | – | – | – |
HarrisX | October 29 – November 2, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 50% | 42% | – | – | – |
HarrisX | October 28 – November 1, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 49% | 42% | – | – | – |
HarrisX | October 27–31, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 49% | 42% | – | – | – |
HarrisX | October 24–30, 2018 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 48% | 40% | – | – | – |
Gravis Marketing | October 24–26, 2018 | 782 | ± 3.5% | 48% | 45% | – | – | 7% |
University of Montana | October 10–18, 2018 | 533 | ± 4.3% | 49% | 39% | 2% | – | 10% |
Montana State University Billings | October 8–13, 2018 | 471 | ± 4.5% | 47% | 38% | 3% | – | 12% |
Montana State University Bozeman | September 15 – October 6, 2018 | 2,079 | ± 2.2% | 46% | 43% | 3% | 2% | 7% |
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) | September 28, 2018 | 594 | ± 4.0% | 49% | 45% | – | – | 6% |
Gravis Marketing | September 19–22, 2018 | 710 | ± 3.7% | 49% | 45% | – | – | 6% |
Axis Research (R-NRSC) | September 17–19, 2018 | – | ± 4.5% | 44% | 44% | 4% | – | 8% |
AARP/Benenson Strategy Group (D) | September 6–16, 2018 | 950 | ± 3.1% | 50% | 43% | – | 2% | 5% |
CBS News/YouGov | September 10–14, 2018 | 453 | – | 47% | 45% | – | 3% | 5% |
University of Montana | August 13–31, 2018 | 466 | ± 4.5% | 56% | 32% | 2% | – | 9% |
WPA Intelligence (R-NRSC) | August 20–22, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 47% | – | – | 5% |
Remington Research (R) | July 8–10, 2018 | 2,581 | ± 2.0% | 49% | 46% | – | – | 5% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 974 | ± 5.0% | 55% | 43% | – | – | 3% |
Gravis Marketing | June 11–13, 2018 | 469 | ± 4.5% | 52% | 44% | – | – | 4% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jon Tester (D) | Generic Republican | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyMonkey/Axios | February 12–March 5, 2018 | 1,484 | ± 3.4% | 42% | 55% | 3% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Jon Tester (incumbent) | 253,876 | 50.33% | +1.75% | |
Republican | Matt Rosendale | 235,963 | 46.78% | +1.92% | |
Libertarian | Rick Breckenridge | 14,545 | 2.88% | -3.68% | |
Total votes | 504,384 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Democratic hold | |||||
From Secretary of State of Montana [81]
County | Jon Tester Democratic | Matt Rosendale Republican | Rick Breckenridge Libertarian | Total Votes | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
# | % | # | % | # | % | ||
Beaverhead | 1,876 | 38.31% | 2,866 | 58.53% | 155 | 3.17% | 4,897 |
Big Horn | 3,027 | 64.73% | 1,558 | 33.32% | 91 | 1.95% | 4,676 |
Blaine | 1,961 | 64.96% | 982 | 32.53% | 76 | 2.52% | 3,019 |
Broadwater | 1,071 | 32.84% | 2,086 | 63.97% | 104 | 3.19% | 3,261 |
Carbon | 2,680 | 44.17% | 3,209 | 52.89% | 178 | 2.93% | 6,067 |
Carter | 128 | 17.02% | 602 | 80.05% | 22 | 2.93% | 752 |
Cascade | 17,435 | 51.27% | 15,566 | 45.77% | 1,008 | 2.96% | 34,009 |
Chouteau | 1,275 | 47.99% | 1,312 | 49.38% | 70 | 2.63% | 2,657 |
Custer | 1,942 | 39.77% | 2,762 | 56.56% | 179 | 3.67% | 4,883 |
Daniels | 281 | 29.86% | 631 | 67.06% | 29 | 3.08% | 941 |
Dawson | 1,233 | 30.27% | 2,700 | 66.29% | 140 | 3.44% | 4,073 |
Deer Lodge | 2,892 | 68.27% | 1,208 | 28.52% | 136 | 3.21% | 4,236 |
Fallon | 281 | 21.80% | 951 | 73.78% | 57 | 4.42% | 1,289 |
Fergus | 1,964 | 33.90% | 3,640 | 62.83% | 189 | 3.26% | 5,793 |
Flathead | 19,652 | 41.15% | 26,759 | 56.03% | 1,349 | 2.82% | 47,760 |
Gallatin | 33,251 | 59.45% | 21,248 | 37.99% | 1,434 | 2.56% | 55,933 |
Garfield | 81 | 11.88% | 571 | 83.72% | 30 | 4.40% | 682 |
Glacier | 3,754 | 75.14% | 1,153 | 23.08% | 89 | 1.78% | 4,996 |
Golden Valley | 130 | 28.63% | 303 | 66.74% | 21 | 4.63% | 454 |
Granite | 695 | 38.76% | 1,046 | 58.34% | 52 | 2.90% | 1,793 |
Hill | 3,729 | 58.36% | 2,434 | 38.09% | 227 | 3.55% | 6,390 |
Jefferson | 2,954 | 43.23% | 3,653 | 53.46% | 226 | 3.31% | 6,833 |
Judith Basin | 388 | 32.58% | 752 | 63.14% | 51 | 4.28% | 1,191 |
Lake | 6,916 | 50.22% | 6,491 | 47.13% | 365 | 2.65% | 13,772 |
Lewis and Clark | 20,506 | 57.70% | 14,106 | 39.69% | 927 | 2.61% | 35,539 |
Liberty | 365 | 37.21% | 586 | 59.73% | 30 | 3.06% | 981 |
Lincoln | 2,902 | 31.08% | 6,137 | 65.73% | 298 | 3.19% | 9,337 |
Madison | 1,890 | 38.11% | 2,898 | 58.44% | 171 | 3.45% | 4,959 |
McCone | 227 | 22.06% | 773 | 75.12% | 29 | 2.82% | 1,029 |
Meagher | 319 | 32.68% | 629 | 64.45% | 28 | 2.87% | 976 |
Mineral | 785 | 38.14% | 1,181 | 57.39% | 92 | 4.47% | 2,058 |
Missoula | 41,688 | 67.62% | 18,631 | 30.22% | 1,332 | 2.16% | 61,651 |
Musselshell | 573 | 23.56% | 1,743 | 71.67% | 116 | 4.77% | 2,432 |
Park | 5,114 | 52.59% | 4,357 | 44.81% | 253 | 2.60% | 9,724 |
Petroleum | 58 | 18.59% | 248 | 79.49% | 6 | 1.92% | 312 |
Phillips | 577 | 27.71% | 1,426 | 68.49% | 79 | 3.79% | 2,082 |
Pondera | 1,176 | 43.80% | 1,413 | 52.63% | 96 | 3.58% | 2,685 |
Powder River | 203 | 20.86% | 748 | 76.88% | 22 | 2.26% | 973 |
Powell | 1,026 | 37.17% | 1,641 | 59.46% | 93 | 3.37% | 2,760 |
Prairie | 177 | 27.11% | 450 | 68.91% | 26 | 3.98% | 653 |
Ravalli | 9,156 | 39.13% | 13,622 | 58.21% | 623 | 2.66% | 23,401 |
Richland | 1,136 | 26.22% | 3,017 | 69.64% | 179 | 4.13% | 4,332 |
Roosevelt | 2,013 | 58.40% | 1,346 | 39.05% | 88 | 2.55% | 3,447 |
Rosebud | 1,511 | 44.88% | 1,765 | 52.42% | 91 | 2.70% | 3,367 |
Sanders | 2,071 | 33.65% | 3,856 | 62.66% | 227 | 3.69% | 6,154 |
Sheridan | 712 | 39.29% | 1,017 | 56.13% | 83 | 4.58% | 1,812 |
Silver Bow | 11,672 | 71.55% | 4,246 | 26.03% | 394 | 2.42% | 16,312 |
Stillwater | 1,501 | 30.86% | 3,206 | 65.91% | 157 | 3.23% | 4,864 |
Sweet Grass | 652 | 31.08% | 1,372 | 65.40% | 74 | 3.53% | 2,098 |
Teton | 1,290 | 40.86% | 1,784 | 56.51% | 83 | 2.63% | 3,157 |
Toole | 626 | 32.90% | 1,208 | 63.48% | 69 | 3.63% | 1,903 |
Treasure | 129 | 31.16% | 279 | 67.39% | 6 | 1.45% | 414 |
Valley | 1,545 | 39.80% | 2,137 | 55.05% | 200 | 5.15% | 3,882 |
Wheatland | 315 | 33.76% | 586 | 62.81% | 32 | 3.43% | 933 |
Wibaux | 140 | 25.83% | 390 | 71.96% | 12 | 2.21% | 542 |
Yellowstone | 32,225 | 46.53% | 34,682 | 50.08% | 2,351 | 3.39% | 69,258 |
Raymond Jon Tester is an American politician and farmer serving as the senior United States senator from Montana, a seat he has held since 2007. A member of the Democratic Party, Tester is the dean of Montana's congressional delegation and the only Democrat who holds statewide office in Montana. He served in the Montana Senate from 1999 to 2007, and as its president for his last two years in the chamber. He is generally considered a centrist or moderate Democrat.
The 2012 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 6, 2012, alongside a presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
The 2014 United States Senate election in Montana took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate from Montana, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
Matthew Martin Rosendale Sr. is an American politician. A Republican, Rosendale represents Montana's 2nd congressional district in the United States House of Representatives. Rosendale served in the Montana House of Representatives from 2011 to 2013, and in the Montana Senate from 2013 to 2017. From 2015 to 2017, he served as Senate majority leader. Rosendale was elected Montana state auditor in 2016 and held that position from 2017 to 2020. Rosendale ran unsuccessfully for the U.S. House of Representatives in 2014 and for the U.S. Senate in 2018. He was elected to represent Montana's at-large congressional district in 2020. After Montana regained its second House seat in the 2020 census, Rosendale was elected to represent the new 2nd congressional district in 2022.
The 2014 congressional election in Montana was held on November 4, 2014, to elect the U.S. representative from Montana's at-large congressional district. Between 1993 and 2023, Montana had one at-large seat in the House.
The 2018 United States Senate election in Arizona took place on November 6, 2018. Incumbent Republican Senator Jeff Flake did not seek reelection to a second term. The election was held concurrently with a gubernatorial election, other elections to the U.S. Senate, elections to the U.S. House of Representatives, and various other state and local elections.
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The 2020 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Montana. It was held concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. The primaries for both the Democratic and Republican nominations took place on June 2, 2020. Incumbent senator Steve Daines won the Republican primary, while Montana Gov. Steve Bullock won the Democratic primary.
The 2020 Montana gubernatorial election was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the next governor of Montana, concurrently with the U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives and various state and local elections. It resulted in voters selecting Greg Gianforte over Mike Cooney. Incumbent Democratic governor Steve Bullock was term-limited and could not seek a third consecutive term in office, and he ran unsuccessfully for Montana's Class II Senate seat.
The 2018 United States House of Representatives election in Montana was held on November 6, 2018, to elect the U.S. representative from Montana's at-large congressional district. The election coincided with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections.
In Montana, an at-large congressional district special election was held on May 25, 2017, to determine the member of the United States House of Representatives for Montana's at-large congressional district. The election was necessitated by incumbent Republican Representative Ryan Zinke's appointment as United States Secretary of the Interior. Zinke resigned on March 1, 2017, upon his confirmation.
The 2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona was held on November 3, 2020, following the death in office of incumbent Republican U.S. Senator John McCain on August 25, 2018. Governor Doug Ducey was required by Arizona law to appoint a Republican to fill the vacant seat until a special election winner could be sworn in. On September 5, 2018, Ducey appointed former U.S. Senator Jon Kyl to fill McCain's seat. However, Kyl announced he would resign on December 31, 2018.
The 2020 United States House of Representatives election in Montana was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the U.S. representative from Montana's at-large congressional district. The election coincided with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections.
The 2024 United States Senate election in Wisconsin will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Wisconsin. Primary elections will take place on August 13, 2024.
The 2024 United States Senate election in Montana will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Montana. Incumbent Senator Jon Tester is seeking a fourth term in office. This race is one of three Democratic-held U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2024 in states Donald Trump won in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, alongside Ohio and West Virginia. Tester's re-election is considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024. Primary elections will take place on June 4, 2024. The last time Republicans won this seat was in 2000.
The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Montana were held on November 8, 2022, to elect two U.S. Representatives from Montana, one from each of its congressional districts. Prior to this election cycle, Montana had one at-large district, represented by Republican Matt Rosendale. However, during the 2020 redistricting cycle, Montana regained the 2nd district that it lost in 1993. As a result, Montana became the first state relegated from multi-district to at-large status that reclaimed a second representative in the House of Representatives, in which Rosendale ran for re-election.
The 2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Montana will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect the two U.S. representatives from the state of Montana, one from each of the state's congressional districts. The elections will coincide with the U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary elections are scheduled for June 4, 2024.
The 2024 Montana Republican presidential primary will be held on June 4, 2024, as part of the Republican Party primaries for the 2024 presidential election. 31 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention will be allocated on a winner-take-all basis. The contest will be among the last in the Republican primary cycle, held alongside primaries in New Jersey and New Mexico].
The NRA Political Victory Fund (NRA-PVF) has endorsed Matt Rosendale for U.S. Senate in Montana.