2018 Vermont gubernatorial election

Last updated

2018 Vermont gubernatorial election
Flag of Vermont.svg
←  2016 November 6, 2018 2020  →
Turnout55.6%
  Phil Scott 2017 (cropped).jpg Christine Hallquist (cropped).jpg
Nominee Phil Scott Christine Hallquist
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote151,261110,335
Percentage55.19%40.25%
2018 Vermont gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2018 Vermont gubernatorial election results map by municipality.svg
Scott:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Hallquist:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Governor before election

Phil Scott
Republican

Elected Governor

Phil Scott
Republican

The 2018 Vermont gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the Governor of Vermont, concurrently with the election of Vermont's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Governor Phil Scott, who was first elected in 2016, was re-elected to a second term in office. [1] Hallquist's 40.3% was also the worst performance for a Democratic Party candidate since 2008. This was one of eight Republican-held governorships up for election in a state that Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election.

Contents


Despite initial expectations of a potentially close race due to national blue wave, Scott easily won reelection in what became a difficult year for Republicans, winning by 15 percentage points. As of 2022, this election marked the last time a Democratic candidate won a county in a gubernatorial election in Vermont.

Background

Along with New Hampshire, Vermont is one of only two states where governors are elected to two-year terms. Republican Phil Scott was elected in the 2016 election. [1]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Eliminated in primary

Endorsements

Debates and forums

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Scott--70-80% Scott--60-70% Scott--50-60% 2018 VT GOV GOP primary.svg
Results by county:
  Scott—70–80%
  Scott—60–70%
  Scott—50–60%
Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Phil Scott (incumbent) 24,042 66.67
Republican Keith Stern11,61732.22
Republican Write-ins4011.11
Total votes36,060 100.0
Republican Blank votes700
Republican Overvotes20

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

  • James Ehlers, executive director of Lake Champlain International and environmentalist [5]
  • John S. Rodgers, current State Senator from Essex County, former State Representative, and construction business owner [6] (write-in candidate)
  • Brenda Siegel, opioid epidemic and Brattleboro hurricane relief activist and worker, former community organizer for Bernie Sanders, southern Vermont nonprofit executive and founding director [7] (also ran in Progressive primary)
  • Ethan Sonneborn, freshman in high school [8] who began his campaign when he was 13 years old. [9] The election was held a few weeks before he entered his freshman year of high school. [10] His campaign was focused on healthcare for all, the environment, economy, and education. [11] Had he won, he would have been the youngest governor in American history. [11] Vermont (as well as Kansas) does not have a minimum age requirement for governor.

Endorsements

James Ehlers
Organizations
  • AFL-CIO
People
Brenda Siegel
Statewide and local politicians
Businesses
  • Vermont Green Grow Wellness Center
Organizations
  • Emerge Vermont
  • SolutionsToWork
People
  • Mark Hughes, executive director of Justice for All, organizer of Poor Peoples Campaign VT [14]

Debates and forums

Results

Results by county: Hallquist--60-70% Hallquist--50-60% Hallquist--40-50% Hallquist--30-40% Siegel--40-50% 2018 VT GOV Dem primary.svg
Results by county:
  Hallquist—60–70%
  Hallquist—50–60%
  Hallquist—40–50%
  Hallquist—30–40%
  Siegel—40–50%
Democratic primary results [15]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Christine Hallquist 27,622 45.07
Democratic James Ehlers12,66820.67
Democratic Brenda Siegel12,26020.01
Democratic Ethan Sonneborn4,6967.66
Democratic John S. Rodgers (write-in)9501.55
Democratic Write-ins (other)3,0745.02
Total votes61,279 100.0
Democratic Blank votes7,997
Democratic Overvotes68

With this result, Christine Hallquist became the first openly transgender candidate for governor nominated by a major political party in the United States. [16] [17]

Progressive primary

Candidates

Eliminated in primary

Write-in
  • Brenda Siegel (also ran in Democratic primary)

Endorsements

Brenda Siegel
Statewide and local politicians
  • Mike Mrowicki, State Representative
  • Tommy Walz, State Representative
Businesses
  • Vermont Green Grow Wellness Center
Organizations
  • Emerge Vermont
  • SolutionsToWork
People
  • Mark Hughes, executive director of Justice for All, organizer of Poor Peoples Campaign VT

Debates and forums

Results

[18]

Vermont Progressive Party primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Progressive Brenda Siegel (write-in)358.75
Progressive Write-ins (other)36591.2
Total votes400 100.0
Progressive Blank votes199

Libertarian nomination

Candidates

Withdrawn

Liberty Union nomination

Candidates

Declared

  • Emily Peyton, candidate for governor in 2014 [20]

Independents

Candidates

Declared

Write-in

Withdrawn

General election

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [27] Safe ROctober 26, 2018
The Washington Post [28] Lean RNovember 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight [29] Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report [30] Safe RNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [31] Safe RNovember 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics [32] Likely RNovember 4, 2018
Daily Kos [33] Likely RNovember 5, 2018
Fox News [34] [lower-alpha 1] Likely RNovember 5, 2018
Politico [35] Lean RNovember 5, 2018
Governing [36] Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Notes
  1. ↑ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Endorsements

Christine Hallquist (D)
US Cabinet members and Cabinet-level officials
US Senators
US Representatives
Statewide and local politicians
  • Martin O'Malley, former Governor of Maryland [41]
  • Claire Ayer, state senator [42]
  • Chris Bray, state senator [42]
  • Joey Donovan, state representative [42]
  • Alice Emmons, state representative [42]
  • Helen Head, state representative [42]
  • Matt Hill, state representative [42]
  • Warren Kitzmiller, state representative [42]
  • Gabe Lucke, state representative [42]
  • Curt McCormack, state representative [42]
  • Dick McCormack, state senator [42]
  • Mary Sullivan, state representative [42]
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Phil Scott (R)
Statewide and local politicians
Organizations
Declined to endorse

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Phil
Scott (R)		Christine
Hallquist (D)		OtherUndecided
Gravis Marketing October 30 – November 1, 2018885± 3.3%49%39%–12%
Braun Research October 5–14, 2018495± 4.4%42%28%7% [53] 22%
Tulchin Research (D-Vermont Democratic Party) Archived 2018-10-02 at the Wayback Machine September 23–26, 2018406± 4.9%50%42%––

Results

2018 Vermont gubernatorial election
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Phil Scott (incumbent) 151,261 55.19% +2.28%
Democratic Christine Hallquist 110,33540.25%-3.91%
Independent Trevor Barlow3,2661.19%N/A
Independent Charles Laramie2,2870.83%N/A
Marijuana Cris Ericson 2,1290.78%N/A
Earth RightsStephen Marx1,8550.68%N/A
Liberty Union Emily Peyton1,8390.66%-2.17%
Write-in 1,1150.41%-0.31%
Total votes274,087 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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References

  1. 1 2 3 Hallenbeck, Terri; Heintz, Paul (November 9, 2016). "Republican Phil Scott Elected Governor of Vermont". Seven Days . Retrieved November 27, 2016.
  2. ↑ Bradley, Pat. "Vermont Gubernatorial Candidate Keith Stern Discusses His Campaign". Archived from the original on April 10, 2018. Retrieved April 9, 2018.
  3. ↑ Evans, Brad (February 19, 2018). "Transgender woman to run for governor of Vermont". WPTZ.
  4. ↑ Trotta, Daniel (August 15, 2018). "In first, transgender woman wins Democratic nomination for Vermont..." reuters.com.
  5. ↑ Hirschfeld, Peter. "Water Quality Advocate James Ehlers To Run For Governor, As Democrat" . Retrieved August 3, 2017.
  6. ↑ "YCN Vermont Wrap with Keith Hanson 6/16/18". YCN Now. June 16, 2018. Retrieved July 18, 2018.
  7. ↑ Walters, John (May 8, 2018). "Walters: Anti-Poverty Advocate Launches Bid for Vermont Governor". Seven Days.
  8. ↑ "Thirteen-year-old runs for Governor of Vermont". Burlington Free Press. August 24, 2017. Retrieved August 31, 2017.
  9. ↑ McCullum, April (August 8, 2018). "Meet the 14-year-old running for Vermont governor". Burlington Free Press. Retrieved August 14, 2018.
  10. ↑ Robinson, Adia (August 14, 2018). "14-year-old is running to be Vermont's next governor". ABC News. Retrieved August 14, 2018.
  11. 1 2 Luz Henning Santiago, Amanda (August 14, 2018). "The website for Vermont's 14-year-old gubernatorial candidate has convinced me he's fit for the job". Mashable. Retrieved August 14, 2018.
  12. ↑ "Letter: Mrowicki supports Siegel". reformer.com.
  13. ↑ "Brenda Siegel for Vermont". www.facebook.com.
  14. ↑ "Mark A. Hughes". www.facebook.com.
  15. ↑ ":: Vermont Election Night Results ::". vtelectionresults.sec.state.vt.us. Archived from the original on August 11, 2017. Retrieved August 15, 2018.
  16. ↑ "Transgender candidate makes history with win in Vermont governor primary". ABC News. August 15, 2018.
  17. ↑ Bidgood, Jess (August 14, 2018). "Christine Hallquist, a Transgender Woman, Wins Vermont Governor's Primary". The New York Times .
  18. ↑ ":: Vermont Election Night Results ::". vtelectionresults.sec.state.vt.us. Archived from the original on August 11, 2017. Retrieved August 15, 2018.
  19. ↑ "2018 Vermont Libertarian Party Convention Summary". May 3, 2018. Archived from the original on July 24, 2018. Retrieved July 23, 2018.
  20. 1 2 "Archived copy". Archived from the original on August 14, 2018. Retrieved August 13, 2018.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  21. ↑ "Candidates - Elections - Vermont Secretary of State". www.sec.state.vt.us. Archived from the original on June 1, 2016. Retrieved August 12, 2018.
  22. ↑ Kaiser, Jonas (December 23, 2020). "How YouTube helps form homogeneous online communities". Brookings.edu. Retrieved December 25, 2022.
  23. ↑ Daro, Ishmael; Lytvyneko, Jane. "Right-Wing YouTubers Think It's Only A Matter Of Time Before They Get Kicked Off The Site". Buzzfeed News. Retrieved December 25, 2022.
  24. ↑ Thompson, Stuart (March 11, 2022). "The far right complains after the search engine DuckDuckGo vows to limit Russian propaganda". The New York Times. Retrieved December 25, 2022.
  25. ↑ "YouTube Star Styxhexenhammer - aka Tarl Warwick - Running for Vermont Governor". thegoldwater.com. Archived from the original on August 15, 2018. Retrieved August 15, 2018.
  26. ↑ "Barney joins Vermont governor's race as independent". burlingtonfreepress.com.
  27. ↑ "2018 Governor Race Ratings for October 26, 2018". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 10, 2021.
  28. ↑ "The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings". The Washington Post . October 16, 2018.
  29. ↑ "2018 Governor Forecast | FiveThirtyEight". FiveThirtyEight. October 17, 2018. Retrieved October 17, 2018.
  30. ↑ "2018 Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved November 15, 2017.
  31. ↑ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor". www.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved November 15, 2017.
  32. ↑ "2018 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics . October 9, 2018.
  33. ↑ "2018 Governor Race Ratings". Daily Kos . June 5, 2018.[ permanent dead link ]
  34. ↑ "2018 Midterm Power Ranking". Fox News . October 10, 2021.
  35. ↑ "Politico Race Ratings". Politico .
  36. ↑ "2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups". www.governing.com. Archived from the original on October 21, 2018. Retrieved July 18, 2018.
  37. ↑ Barack Obama. "Today, I'm proud to endorse even more Democratic candidates who aren't just running against something, but for something—to expand opportunity for all of us and to restore dignity, honor, and compassion to public service. They deserve your vote". Twitter.
  38. ↑ "VT Insights: Hallquist rakes in endorsements from Obama, Biden, Warren and Sanders".
  39. ↑ "Biden endorses Hallquist for governor". wcax.com. Retrieved March 5, 2023.
  40. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "Supporters".
  41. ↑ Martin O'Malley. "Proud to support @christineforvt, a leader in green energy and health care for the state of Vermont". Twitter.
  42. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 "Christine Hallquist - Posts". Facebook . July 23, 2018. Retrieved July 26, 2018.
  43. ↑ Battipaglia, Helena (September 12, 2018). "'Supernatural' actor supports Democratic gubernatorial candidate". www.mynbc5.com. WPTZ.
  44. ↑ Ocasio-Cortez, Alexandria [@Ocasio2018] (August 15, 2018). "Incredible and groundbreaking victory. Congratulations @christineforvt & shout out to Vermont voters for continuing VT's legacy of courageous inclusion & advocacy for all people" (Tweet). Retrieved October 16, 2018– via Twitter.
  45. ↑ Tinney, Don (August 28, 2018). "Vermont-NEA Recommends Hallquist for Governor". www.vtnea.org. Vermont-NEA Board.
  46. ↑ Peters, Stephen (August 29, 2018). "HRC Endorses Christine Hallquist for Governor of Vermont | Human Rights Campaign". Human Rights Campaign.
  47. ↑ Byrne, Robert (May 22, 2018). "Victory Fund Endorses 24 More LGBTQ Candidates for 2018, Spotlights Five New Historic Races". LGBTQ Victory Fund. LGBTQ Victory Fund.
  48. ↑ Sandberg, Stephanie (July 26, 2018). "LPAC Announces 5 New Endorsements for Local Office as Primaries Approach - LPAC". LPAC. Archived from the original on September 1, 2018. Retrieved September 1, 2018.
  49. ↑ "Republican Leaders Endorse Governor Phil Scott". Phil Scott for Vermont. August 6, 2018.
  50. 1 2 "Governor Jim Douglas and Lt. Governor Brian Dubie Endorse Governor Phil Scott for Reelection". Phil Scott for Vermont. August 3, 2018.
  51. ↑ "Phil Scott Receives Small-Business Endorsement in the Race for Governor". NFIB. October 9, 2018.
  52. ↑ Landen, Xander (October 7, 2018). "Planned Parenthood declines to endorse in governor's race". VTDigger.
  53. ↑ Trevor Barlow (I), Cris Ericson (I), Charles Laramie (I), and Emily Peyton (LU) with 1%; none/write in/other with 3%
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