2018 United States Senate election in North Dakota

Last updated

2018 United States Senate election in North Dakota
Flag of North Dakota.svg
  2012 November 6, 2018 2024  
Turnout56.27% Decrease2.svg
  Kevin Cramer, official portrait, 116th congress (cropped).jpg Heidi Heitkamp official portrait 113th Congress.jpg
Nominee Kevin Cramer Heidi Heitkamp
Party Republican Democratic–NPL
Popular vote179,720144,376
Percentage55.11%44.27%

2018 United States Senate election in North Dakota results map by county.svg
2018NDSenate-precinct.svg
2018 United States Senate election in North Dakota by State Senate District.svg
Cramer:     40—50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Heitkamp:     50–60%     60–70%     80–90%     >90%

U.S. senator before election

Heidi Heitkamp
Democratic–NPL

Elected U.S. Senator

Kevin Cramer
Republican

The 2018 United States Senate election in North Dakota took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of North Dakota, concurrently with other elections to the U.S. Senate, as well as other federal, state and local elections in North Dakota.

Contents

This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. Incumbent senator Heidi Heitkamp ran for reelection to a second term. [1] The candidate filing deadline was April 9, 2018, and the primary election was held on June 12, 2018. [2] U.S. Representative Kevin Cramer won the Republican primary to challenge Heitkamp, who ran unopposed in the Democratic primary.

On November 6, 2018, Cramer defeated Heitkamp in the general election, becoming the first Republican to win this seat since 1958. This marked the first time since 1960 that Republicans held both of North Dakota's Senate seats.

Background

Many observers cited Heitkamp as a vulnerable incumbent Democrat in 2018, as she balanced cooperation with her Democratic colleagues in the U.S. Senate with pleasing her constituents in deeply Republican North Dakota; Donald Trump won in North Dakota by about 36 points. [3] The race was expected to be extremely competitive and some projected it would be the most expensive race in North Dakota history. [4]

Voter ID law and Native Americans disenfranchisement

On October 9, 2018, the Supreme Court of the United States refused to overturn North Dakota's voter ID law, called HB 1369. This law requires voters to use an ID which lists a street address, and doesn't allow PO boxes as valid addresses. However, many Native American reservations don't use a conventional address system and their inhabitants tend to use PO boxes instead, making a large share of the IDs used by Native Americans invalid. Although both Natives and non-Natives are affected, Native Americans are disproportionately more likely to be affected by HB 1369, and the law has been criticized for disenfranchising Native Americans. The Republican-held state government of North Dakota argued that the law was created to prevent voter fraud, but has been accused of passing the law because Native Americans are likely to vote Democratic.

A group of seven Native American voters led by Richard Brakebill, a U.S. Navy veteran enrolled in the Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa Indians, challenged HB 1369 as violating the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment. In the case of Brakebill v. Jaeger, judge Daniel L. Hovland of the District Court of North Dakota ruled in April 2018 that large parts of HB 1369 were unconstitutional, including the prohibition on IDs with PO box addresses.

North Dakota secretary of state Alvin Jaeger appealed the ruling to the Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit, and requested a stay on Hovland's ruling. The Eighth Circuit initially rejected Jaeger's stay request, with the primary elections in June 2018 not being affected by HB 1369, but revised its opinion in September 2018 and stayed Hovland's ruling. The plaintiffs filed a motion to the Supreme Court, requesting that they take up the case, but this motion was denied. Consequently, Hovland's ruling remained inoperative and HB 1369 was effective for the November 2018 general elections, with many people without the right ID being unable to vote. [5] [6] [7] [8]

Activists reacted to these suppression measures by educating voters, helping them get their identification cards updated, and giving them rides to the polls on election day. This backlash resulted in a Native American turnout that reached an unprecedented level in the election. [9]

Democratic-NPL primary

The Democratic-NPL Party held their state convention March 16 and 17, during which delegates voted to endorse Heitkamp for re-election. Although general election ballot access is actually controlled by a primary election, challenger Dustin Peyer did not challenge Heitkamp in the June 2018 primary. [10]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

  • Dustin Peyer, firefighter and candidate for the state senate in 2016 [10]

Endorsements

Heidi Heitkamp
Federal officials
  • Joe Biden, former Vice President [11]
  • Chuck Hagel, former Secretary of Defense (Republican) [12]
  • Tom Vilsack, former Secretary of Agriculture and Governor of Iowa [13]
  • Mary Wakefield, former Acting Deputy Secretary of Health and Human Services [14]
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representative
Local officials
  • Michael Brown, Mayor of Grand Forks [19]
  • Tim McLean, Casselton Fire Chief [20]
  • Arland Rasmussen, former West Fargo police chief [21]
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers

Results

Results by county:
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
Heitkamp--100%
Heitkamp-->=90% 2018 ND US Senate Democratic primary.svg
Results by county:
  Heitkamp—100%
  Heitkamp—≥90%
Democratic primary results [38]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic–NPL Heidi Heitkamp (incumbent) 36,729 99.58%
Democratic–NPL Write-ins1520.42%
Total votes36,883 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Kevin Cramer
Presidents of the United States
U.S. Vice Presidents
U.S. Senators
U.S. Governors
N.D State Legislature
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Tom Campbell (withdrawn)
State Senators
State Representatives

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Rick
Becker
Rick
Berg
Tom
Campbell
Tammy
Miller
Kathy
Neset
Kelly
Schmidt
Undecided
1892 Polling (R-Campbell) October 11–12, 2017400± 4.0%3%24%32%1%4%1%35%
1892 Polling (R-Campbell) May 30 – June 1, 2017400± 4.0%9%39%7%45%

Results

Republican primary results by county
Cramer >= 90%
Cramer >= 80%
Cramer >= 70% 2018 North Dakota Republican Senatorial Primary.svg
Republican primary results by county
  Cramer >= 90%
  Cramer >= 80%
  Cramer >= 70%
Republican primary results [38]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Kevin Cramer 61,529 87.73%
Republican Thomas O'Neill8,50912.13%
Republican Write-ins950.14%
Total votes70,133 100.00%

General election

Debates

Heitkamp and Cramer greet each other during debate for the 2018 Senate's election. Heidi Heitkamp and Kevin Cramer greet each other during debate for the 2018 Senate's election.png
Heitkamp and Cramer greet each other during debate for the 2018 Senate's election.

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [76] Lean R (flip)October 26, 2018
Inside Elections [77] Lean R (flip)November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [78] Lean R (flip)November 5, 2018
Daily Kos [79] Lean R (flip)November 5, 2018
Fox News [80] [lower-alpha 1] Likely R (flip)November 5, 2018
CNN [81] Lean R (flip)November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics [82] Lean R (flip)November 5, 2018
Notes
  1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party)Total receiptsTotal disbursementsCash on hand
Heidi Heitkamp (D)$27,353,798$16,356,442$11,142,250
Kevin Cramer (R)$5,584,357$5,003,819$976,045
Source: Federal Election Commission [83]

Polling

Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Heidi
Heitkamp (D)
Kevin
Cramer (R)
OtherUndecided
FOX News October 27–30, 2018789 LV± 3.0%42%51%2%4%
851 RV± 3.0%42%49%3%6%
Trafalgar Group (R) October 23–24, 20181,498± 2.1%46%55%
Strategic Research Associates Archived 2018-11-07 at the Wayback Machine October 12–19, 2018650± 3.8%40%56%4%
FOX News September 29 – October 2, 2018704 LV± 3.5%41%53%2%3%
801 RV± 3.5%41%50%3%5%
Strategic Research Associates Archived 2018-11-07 at the Wayback Machine September 17–27, 2018650± 3.8%41%51%8%
FOX News September 8–11, 2018701 LV± 3.5%44%48%2%6%
804 RV± 3.5%42%47%2%7%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018457± 7.5%47%52%2%
Mason-Dixon June 13–15, 2018625± 4.0%44%48%8%
Gravis Marketing February 21–24, 2018385± 5.0%43%40%17%
The Tarrance Group (R-NRSC) February 18–20, 2018500± 4.5%44%49%7%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Heidi
Heitkamp (D)
Generic
Republican
Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios February 12 – March 5, 2018821± 3.2%47%49%4%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
Undecided
The Tarrance Group (R-NRSC) February 18–20, 2018500± 4.5%34%48%18%
with Tom Campbell
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Heidi
Heitkamp (D)
Tom
Campbell (R)
Undecided
1892 Polling (R-Campbell) October 11–12, 2017500± 4.9%41%44%15%
1892 Polling (R-Campbell) May 30 – June 1, 2017500± 4.9%43%37%20%
with Kelly Schmidt
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Heidi
Heitkamp (D)
Kelly
Schmidt (R)
Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R-Club for Growth) September 10–11, 2017406± 4.9%44%48%9%

Results

United States Senate election in North Dakota, 2018 [84]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Kevin Cramer 179,720 55.11% +5.79%
Democratic–NPL Heidi Heitkamp (incumbent)144,37644.27%-5.97%
Write-in 2,0420.63%N/A
Total votes326,138 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic–NPL

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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References

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  15. Gillibrand, Kirsten [@SenGillibrand] (September 23, 2018). ".@HeidiHeitkamp's Republican opponent, Kevin Cramer, casually dismissed the sexual assault allegation against Kavanaugh. Cramer has no place in the Senate. Help keep him out by rushing a donation to Heidi's campaign: https://t.co/6BexiNrRq6 #StopKavanaugh" (Tweet). Archived from the original on March 8, 2021. Retrieved June 14, 2021 via Twitter.
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