2018 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

For related races, see 2018 United States Senate elections.

Not to be confused with 2018 Pennsylvania Senate election.

2018 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

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Turnout	58.18%
Nominee Bob Casey Jr. Lou Barletta Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 2,792,437 2,134,848 Percentage 55.74% 42.62%
County results Congressional district results Precinct results Casey:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90% Barletta:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90% Tie:     40–50%     50%     No data
U.S. senator before election Bob Casey Jr. Democratic Elected U.S. Senator Bob Casey Jr. Democratic

The 2018 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Pennsylvania, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. The primary elections were held on May 15. ^[1] Incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr. ran for re-election to a third term. ^[2] Casey, who faced no primary opposition, defeated the Republican nominee, Lou Barletta, ^[3] Green Party nominee Neal Gale, ^[4] and Libertarian Party nominee Dale Kerns. ^[5] Casey was the first senator to be elected to a third term from Pennsylvania since Arlen Specter in 1992, and the first Pennsylvania Democrat to be popularly elected to three terms in the Senate.

Democratic primary

Candidates

On ballot

• Bob Casey Jr., incumbent U.S. Senator ^[6]

Results

Democratic primary results ^[7]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent)	Unopposed
Total votes			752,008	100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

On ballot

• Lou Barletta, U.S. Representative from Hazleton ^[8]
• Jim Christiana, state representative from Beaver ^[9]

Withdrew

• Paul Addis, businessman (running for PA-5) ^{[10] [11] [12]}
• Cynthia E. Ayers, cyber security consultant and former National Security Agency employee ^{[12] [13]}
• Jeff Bartos, real estate developer (running for lieutenant governor) ^[14]
• Paul DeLong, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2004 ^{[12] [15]}
• Bobby Lawrence, small business owner (endorsed Dale Kerns) ^{[12] [16]}
• Rick Saccone, state representative (ran for PA-18, ran for PA-14) ^[17]
• Andrew Shecktor, Berwick Borough Councilman (running for PA-9) ^{[18] [19]}

Declined

• Mike Kelly, U.S. Representative ^[20]
• Pat Meehan, former U.S. Representative ^[21]
• Dave Reed, Majority Leader of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives ^[22]

Endorsements

Jim Christiana

State senators

• Jake Corman, State Senator from the 34th district (1999–2022), Pennsylvania State Senate Majority Leader (2015–2020) ^[23]

State representatives

• Kerry Benninghoff, State Representative from the 171st district (1997–present) ^[24]
• Garth Everett, State Representative from the 84th district (2007–2020)
• Mark Mustio, State Representative from the 44th district (2003–2019)
• Dave L. Reed, State Representative from the 62nd district (2003–2018), Pennsylvania House Majority Leader (2015–2018) ^[25]
• Jesse Topper, State Representative from the 78th district (2014–present)
• Mike Turzai, 140th Speaker of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives (2015–2020), State Representative from the 28th district (2001–2020), candidate for Governor in 2018 ^[26]

Newspapers

• The Beaver County Times ^[27]

Cynthia E. Ayers (withdrew)

Individuals

• Brigadier General Ken Chrosniak, former instructor at the U.S. Army War College ^[28]
• Henry Cooper, former Director of the Strategic Defense Initiative ^[28]
• Dr. Brian Hay, business executive and national security expert ^[29]
• Major General Robert B. Newman Jr., former Adjutant General of Virginia (USAF) ^[28]
• Dr. Peter Pry, Director of the United States Nuclear Strategy Forum, an advisory board to Congress on policies to counter Weapons of Mass Destruction. ^[28]

Bobby Lawrence (withdrew)

Individuals

• Jeremy Hanson, host of Unleashed: The Jeremy Hanson Show ^[30]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Lou Barletta	Jim Christiana	Other	Undecided
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R-Christiana)	April 2018	>400	–	32%	11%	–	58%
Bellwether Research (R-Addis)	September 20–24, 2017	600	± 4.0%	22%	–	<10%	60%

Results

Results by county:

  Barletta—>90%

  Barletta—80–90%

  Barletta—70–80%

  Barletta—60–70%

  Barletta—50–60%

  Christiana—50–60%

  Christiana—60–70%

  Christiana—70–80%

Republican primary results ^[31]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Lou Barletta	433,312	63.03%
	Republican	Jim Christiana	254,118	36.97%
Total votes			687,430	100.00%

Libertarian Party

Dale Kerns ran unopposed for the Libertarian nomination and received the official nomination from the Pennsylvania Libertarian Party at the state convention on March 6, 2018. ^[32]

Candidates

Nominee

• Dale Kerns, former Republican Eddystone Borough council member ^[33] and board of directors member for Goodwill Industries ^{[5] [12] [34]}

Green Party

Candidates

Nominee

• Neal Gale, clean energy consultant ^[4]

General election

Candidates

• Lou Barletta (R), U.S. Representative
• Bob Casey Jr. (D), incumbent senator
• Neal Gale (G), clean energy consultant
• Dale Kerns (L), former Eddystone Borough council member

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [35]	Likely D	October 26, 2018
Inside Elections [36]	Safe D	November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [37]	Safe D	November 5, 2018
Daily Kos [38]	Safe D	November 5, 2018
Fox News [39] [lower-alpha 1]	Likely D	November 5, 2018
CNN [40]	Likely D	November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics [41]	Likely D	November 5, 2018

Notes

1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Endorsements

Lou Barletta (R)

Federal officials

• Mike Pence, 48th Vice President of the United States (2017–2021) ^[42]
• Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021) ^[43]

U.S. Senators

• Rick Santorum, U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania (1995–2007) ^[44]

U.S. Representatives

• Ryan Costello, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 6th congressional district (2015–2019) ^[45]
• Charlie Dent, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 15th congressional district (2005–2018) ^[45]
• Brian Fitzpatrick, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district (2017–2019) ^[45]
• Mike Kelly, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 3rd congressional district (2011–2019) ^[45]
• Tom Marino, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 10th congressional district (2011–2019) ^[45]
• Pat Meehan, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district (2011–2018) ^[45]
• Scott Perry, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 4th congressional district (2013–2019) ^[45]
• Keith Rothfus, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district (2013–2019) ^[45]
• Bill Shuster, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 9th congressional district (2001–2019) ^[45]
• Lloyd Smucker, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 16th congressional district (2017–2019) ^[45]
• Glenn Thompson, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 5th congressional district (2009–2019) ^[45]

State officials

• Jim Cawley, 32nd Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania (2011–2015) ^[44]

State senators

• Lisa Baker, state senator from the 20th district (2007–present) ^[44]
• Camera Bartolotta, state senator from the 46th district (2015–present) ^[44]
• John DiSanto, state senator from the 15th district (2017–present) ^[44]
• John Gordner, state senator from the 27th district (2003–2022) ^[44]
• Scott Martin, state senator from the 13th district (2017–present) ^[44]
• Mike Regan, state senator from the 31st district (2017–present) ^[44]
• Mario Scavello, state senator from the 40th district (2015–2022) ^[44]
• Robert Tomlinson, state senator from the 6th district (1995–present) ^[44]
• Kim Ward, state senator from the 39th district (2009–present) ^[44]

State representatives

• Steve Bloom, state representative from the 199th district (2011–2019) ^[44]
• Sheryl Delozier, state representative from the 88th district (2009–present) ^[44]
• Doyle Heffley, state representative from the 122nd district (2011–present) ^[44]
• Sue Helm, state representative from the 104th district (2007–present) ^[44]
• Dawn Keefer, state representative from the 92nd district (2017–present) ^[44]
• Fred Keller, state representative from the 85th district (2011–2019) ^[44]
• Jerry Knowles, state representative from the 124th district (2009–present) ^[44]
• Ryan Mackenzie, state representative from the 134th district (2012–present) ^[44]
• John Maher, state representative from the 40th district (1997–2019) ^[44]
• Kurt Masser, state representative from the 107th district (2011–present) ^[44]
• Tom Mehaffie, state representative from the 106th district (2017–present) ^[44]
• Daryl Metcalfe, state representative from the 12th district (1999–present) ^[44]
• Dave Millard, state representative from the 109th district (2004–present) ^[44]
• Kristin Phillips-Hill, state representative from the 93rd district (2015–2019) ^[44]
• Greg Rothman, state representative from the 87th district (2015–present) ^[46]
• Justin Simmons, state representative from the 131st district (2011–2021) ^[44]
• Mike Tobash, state representative from the 125th district (2011–2020) ^[44]
• Tarah Toohil, state representative from the 116th district (2011–present) ^[44]

Individuals

• Nigel Farage, chair of Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy (2004–2019), Member of the European Parliament for South East England (1999–2020), and former chair and leader of the UK Independence Party (1998–2000) ^[47]
• Paul Mango, candidate for Governor in 2018 ^[48]
• Eric Trump, businessman and son of U.S. President Donald Trump ^[49]
• Lara Trump, television host and daughter-in-law of U.S. President Donald Trump ^[49]

Organizations

• Associated Builders and Contractors ^[50]
• Fraternal Order of Police Fort Pitt Lodge #1 ^[51]
• National Electrical Contractors Association (NECA) ^[52]
• National Federation of Independent Business ^[53]
• National Right to Life ^[54]
• Penn-Del-Jersey Chapter of NECA ^[52]
• Pennsylvania GOP ^[55]
• Students For Trump ^[56]
• Western Pennsylvania Chapter of NECA ^[52]

Newspapers

• The Patriot-News ^[57]

Bob Casey Jr. (D)

Federal officials

• Joe Biden, 47th Vice President of the United States (2009–2017) ^[58]
• Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States (2009–2017) ^[59]

U.S. Senators

• Cory Booker, U.S. Senator from New Jersey (2013–present) ^[60]
• Catherine Cortez Masto, U.S. Senator from Nevada (2017–present) ^[61]
• Dick Durbin, Senate Minority Whip (2015–2021), U.S. Senator from Illinois (1997–present) ^[62]
• Kamala Harris, U.S. Senator from California (2017–2021) ^[63]
• Ed Markey, U.S. Senator from Massachusetts (2013–present) ^[64]
• Jeff Merkley, U.S. Senator from Oregon (2009–present) ^[65]
• Gary Peters, U.S. Senator from Michigan (2015–present) ^[66]
• Elizabeth Warren, U.S. Senator from Massachusetts (2013–present) ^[67]

U.S. Representatives

• Dwight Evans, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 2nd congressional district (2016–2019) ^[68]
• Conor Lamb, U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district (2018–2019) ^[69]

Local and state officials

• John Fetterman, Mayor of Braddock (2006–2019) and Democratic nominee for Lieutenant Governor in 2018
• Josh Shapiro, 50th Attorney General of Pennsylvania (2017–2023) ^[70]
• Tom Wolf, 47th Governor of Pennsylvania (2015–2023) ^[71]

Labor unions

• Pennsylvania State AFL–CIO ^[72]
• United Mine Workers of America ^[73]

Organizations

• Council for a Livable World ^[74]
• End Citizens United ^[75]
• Equality Pennsylvania ^[76]
• League of Conservation Voters ^[77]
• National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare ^[78]
• Natural Resources Defense Council Action Fund ^[79]
• Sierra Club ^[80]

Neal Gale (G)

Organizations

• Green Party ^[81]
• Green Party of Pennsylvania ^[81]

Dale Kerns (L)

Governors

• Gary Johnson, 29th Governor of New Mexico (1995–2003), Libertarian nominee for President in 2012 and 2016, nominee for Senate in New Mexico in 2018 ^[82]
• Bill Weld, 68th Governor of Massachusetts (1991–1997), Libertarian nominee for Vice President in 2016 ^[83]

State and local politicians

• Brandon Magoon, Majority Inspector of Elections Erie 6-1 ^[84] (Republican)
• Jennifer Moore, Upper Providence Township Auditor ^[85] (Libertarian)
• Bruno Novak, Judge of Elections, Hempfield-3 ^[84] (Libertarian)
• Michael Oehling Jr, Buffalo Township Republican Committeeman and Auditor ^[85]

Individuals

• Bobby Lawrence, former Republican U.S. Senate candidate and small business owner ^[85]

Organizations

• Libertarian Party ^{[5] [12]}
• Libertarian Party of Pennsylvania ^{[5] [12]}

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Casey Jr. (D)	Lou Barletta (R)	Other	Undecided
Change Research	November 2–4, 2018	1,833	–	51%	44%	3% [86]	–
Research Co.	November 1–3, 2018	450	± 4.6%	56%	39%	1%	4%
Muhlenberg College Archived 2018-11-02 at the Wayback Machine	October 28 – November 1, 2018	421	± 5.5%	54%	40%	–	–
Franklin & Marshall College	October 22–28, 2018	214 LV	± 9.5%	50%	35%	–	14%
		537 RV	± 6.0%	50%	31%	4% [87]	14%
Morning Consult Archived 2018-10-15 at the Wayback Machine	October 1–2, 2018	1,188	± 3.0%	47%	32%	–	21%
Franklin & Marshall College	September 17–23, 2018	204 LV	–	50%	33%	–	15%
		545 RV	± 6.1%	48%	30%	4% [88]	20%
Ipsos	September 12–20, 2018	1,080	± 3.0%	53%	37%	3%	7%
Muhlenberg College	September 13–19, 2018	404	± 5.5%	53%	35%	7% [89]	6%
Rasmussen Reports	September 12–13, 2018	800	± 3.5%	52%	38%	2%	8%
Franklin & Marshall College	August 20–26, 2018	222 LV	–	47%	34%	1%	19%
		511 RV	± 6.1%	48%	29%	3% [90]	20%
NBC News/Marist	August 12–16, 2018	713	± 4.2%	53%	38%	1%	8%
Commonwealth Leaders Fund (R)	August 13–15, 2018	2,012	± 3.6%	47%	45%	2%	6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	June 11 – July 2, 2018	990	± 4.5%	55%	41%	–	5%
Suffolk University Archived 2018-06-27 at the Wayback Machine	June 21–25, 2018	500	± 4.4%	47%	32%	1%	21%
Franklin & Marshall College	June 4–10, 2018	472	± 6.5%	44%	27%	1%	28%
Muhlenberg College	April 4–12, 2018	414	± 5.5%	48%	32%	8%	18%
Franklin & Marshall College	March 19–26, 2018	423	± 6.8%	43%	25%	2%	30%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)	March 15–16, 2018	1,056	± 3.0%	54%	36%	–	10%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	February 12 – March 5, 2018	2,165	± 3.8%	52%	43%	–	5%

Hypothetical polling

with Jim Christiana

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Casey Jr. (D)	Jim Christiana (R)	Other	Undecided
Muhlenberg College	April 4–12, 2018	414	± 5.5%	48%	29%	3%	20%

with generic Democrat and Republican

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Generic Democrat	Generic Republican	Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)	March 15–16, 2018	1,056	± 3.0%	53%	41%	7%

Results

United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2018 ^[91]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Bob Casey Jr. (incumbent)	2,792,437	55.74%	+2.05%
	Republican	Lou Barletta	2,134,848	42.62%	-1.97%
	Libertarian	Dale Kerns	50,907	1.02%	-0.70%
	Green	Neal Gale	31,208	0.62%	N/A
Total votes			5,009,400	100.00%	N/A
	Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Fayette (largest borough: Uniontown)
• Luzerne (largest city: Wilkes-Barre)

By congressional district

Bob Casey Jr won 11 of 18 congressional districts, including the 1st and 10th districts, which elected Republicans to the House. ^[92]

District	Barletta	Casey Jr.	Representative
1st	41.65%	56.72%	Brian Fitzpatrick
2nd	20.33%	78.53%
			Brendan Boyle
3rd	5.76%	93.06%	Dwight Evans
4th	34.11%	64.36%	Madeleine Dean
5th	30.84%	67.88%	Mary Gay Scanlon
6th	39.17%	59.05%	Chrissy Houlahan
7th	42.21%	56.07%	Susan Wild
8th	47.02%	51.84%
			Matt Cartwright
9th	58.77%	39.57%	Dan Meuser
10th	48.19%	49.78%	Scott Perry
11th	55.77%	42.04%	Lloyd Smucker
12th	60.26%	37.80%	Tom Marino
13th	64.15%	34.20%	John Joyce
14th	52.34%	46.04%	Guy Reschenthaler
15th	60.19%	38.04%	Glenn Thompson
16th	50.21%	48.11%	Mike Kelly
17th	40.66%	57.55%	Conor Lamb
18th	27.41%	70.86%	Mike Doyle

See also

• 2018 United States Senate elections
• 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Pennsylvania
• 2018 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election

References

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43. "Rep. Lou Barletta, a Great Republican from Pennsylvania who was one of my very earliest supporters, will make a FANTASTIC Senator. He is strong & smart, loves Pennsylvania & loves our Country! Voted for Tax Cuts, unlike Bob Casey, who listened to Tax Hikers Pelosi and Schumer!". Twitter . February 11, 2018. Retrieved February 11, 2018.
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49. Eric Trump. "Lara and I loved spending the day in Pennsylvania campaigning for @RepLouBarletta for Senate! He is an incredible guy & a great friend - we desperately need him fighting alongside @realDonaldTrump in #WashingtonDC! #VoteForLou #MAGA #PA". Twitter.
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55. Murphy, Jan (February 10, 2018). "Lou Barletta wins state GOP backing in U.S. Senate race". The Patriot-News .
56. Students For Trump. ".@SenBobCasey has Pennsylvania values every 6 years when he's up for election. @louforsenate actually holds these values and will bring them to Washington in November!". Twitter.
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59. Bob Casey Jr. ".@BarackObama is counting on you to vote, Pennsylvania. Are you ready?". Twitter.
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68. Dwight Evans. "Busy evening full of stops at the 59th, 17th and 12th wards talking about the importance of Philadelphia to the @WolfforPA and @Bob_Casey campaigns. Need to get that vote out on Nov. 6th! #ElectionsMatter #GOTV #PAVotesBlue". Twitter.
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72. "Pennsylvania AFL-CIO Candidate Endorsements".
73. "Pennsylvania - COMPAC Endorsements - UMWA". UMWA.
74. "2018 Council-endorsed Senate Candidates - Council for a Livable World". Council for a Livable World.
75. Tiffany Muller (May 3, 2017). "End Citizens United Endorses Bob Casey, Heidi Heitkamp and Sheldon Whitehouse for U.S. Senate". End Citizens United.
76. Dawe, John (March 30, 2018). "Equality PA endorses Senator Bob Casey, Jr. for Re-Election". Equality Pennsylvania. Archived from the original on April 19, 2018. Retrieved April 19, 2018.
77. "LCV Action Fund Endorses Pennsylvania Environmental Champions Senator Casey & Representative Cartwright". League of Conservation Voters. October 23, 2017.
78. NCPSSM. "Candidates We Endorse and Support".
79. Curtis, Kevin (February 16, 2018). "NRDC Action Fund : Sen. Bob Casey endorsed by the NRDC Action Fund". www.nrdcactionfund.org.
80. "Sierra Club #ClimateVoter Guide: Endorsements".
81. "Neal Gale Announces Run for U.S. Senate in PA". Green Party US. Retrieved May 24, 2018.
82. "Thank you Gary Johnson for your endorsement!". Facebook.
83. "I endorse". Facebook.
84. "Facebook". Facebook.
85. "Kerns Endorsements". Dale Kerns. Retrieved July 4, 2017.
86. Neal Gale (G) with 2%, Dale Kerns (L) with 1%
87. Neal Gale (G) with 2%, Dale Kerns (L) with 1%; other with 1%
88. Dale Kerns (L) with 2%, Neal Gale (G) with 1%; other with 1%
89. Neal Gale (G) and Dale Kerns (L) with 2%, neither/other with 3%
90. Dale Kerns (L) and Neal Gale (G) with 1%; other with 1%
91. "Pennsylvania Elections - Summary Results". electionreturns.pa.gov.
92. "Twitter".

External links

• Candidates at Vote Smart
• Candidates at Ballotpedia
• Campaign finance at FEC
• Campaign finance at OpenSecrets

Official campaign websites

• Lou Barletta (R) for Senate
• Bob Casey (D) for Senate
• Dale Kerns (L) for Senate
• Neal Gale (G) for Senate