List of election bellwether counties in the United States

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Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. There are a total of 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States. [1]

Contents

Significant bellwethers

The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980:

Deviations in one election

The following 44 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no current bellwethers deviated from the winner in ONLY 1980, 1984, 1996 or 2008, although some deviated in one of those plus another election): [3] [4]

Overview of bellwether counties in federal elections
Election year of deviationCountyStateCounty winnerVotesNational winnerLast deviation
1988 Blaine Flag of Montana.svg  Montana Michael Dukakis 1,4601,402 George H. W. Bush 1912
Clay Flag of Minnesota.svg  Minnesota 11,18610,380 1968
1992 Door Flag of Wisconsin.svg  Wisconsin George H. W. Bush 5,4684,735 Bill Clinton 1976
Essex Flag of New York.svg  New York 8,2786,717
Hillsborough Flag of New Hampshire.svg  New Hampshire 61,62058,470
Kent Flag of Delaware.svg  Delaware 15,56215,364 1948
Saratoga Flag of New York.svg  New York 36,91733,011 1976
2000 Pinellas Flag of Florida.svg  Florida Al Gore 200,657184,849 George W. Bush
2004 Nicollet Flag of Minnesota.svg  Minnesota John Kerry 8,7978,689
Sullivan Flag of New Hampshire.svg  New Hampshire 11,43410,142
2012 Albany Flag of Wyoming.svg  Wyoming Mitt Romney 7,8667,458 Barack Obama
2016 Bexar Flag of Texas.svg  Texas Hillary Clinton 319,550240,333 Donald Trump 1968
Buncombe Flag of North Carolina.svg  North Carolina 75,45255,716 1960
Centre Flag of Pennsylvania.svg  Pennsylvania 37,08835,274 1976
Clackamas Flag of Oregon.svg  Oregon 102,09588,392
DeKalb Flag of Illinois.svg  Illinois 20,46619,091
Merced Flag of California.svg  California 37,31728,725 1968
San Bernardino 340,833271,240 1976
San Joaquin 121,12488,936
Skagit Washington 26,69024,736
Stanislaus Flag of California.svg  California 81,64778,494 1968
Sandoval Flag of New Mexico.svg  New Mexico 27,70725,905
Ventura Flag of California.svg  California 194,402132,323 1976
Will Flag of Illinois.svg  Illinois 151,927132,720
Winnebago 55,71355,624
2020 Bremer Flag of Iowa.svg  Iowa Donald Trump 8,2945,958 Joe Biden
Cortland Flag of New York.svg  New York 10,78910,369
Essex Flag of Vermont.svg  Vermont 1,7731,405
Hidalgo Flag of New Mexico.svg  New Mexico 1,120823 1968
Juneau Flag of Wisconsin.svg  Wisconsin 5,7193,239 1960
Marquette 1976
Otsego Flag of New York.svg  New York 14,38212,975
Ottawa Flag of Ohio.svg  Ohio 14,6289,008 1960
Richland Flag of Wisconsin.svg  Wisconsin 4,8713,995 1976
Sawyer 5,9094,498 1960
Shiawassee Flag of Michigan.svg  Michigan 23,14915,347 1976
Valencia Flag of New Mexico.svg  New Mexico 17,36414,623 1948
Van Buren Flag of Michigan.svg  Michigan 21,59116,803 1976
Vigo Flag of Indiana.svg  Indiana 23,54518,213 1952
Warren Flag of Illinois.svg  Illinois 4,6763,090 1976
Washington Flag of Maine.svg  Maine 10,1946,761
Westmoreland Flag of Virginia.svg  Virginia 5,3184,501 1960
Wood Flag of Ohio.svg  Ohio 35,75730,617 1976

Deviations in two elections

The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: [3]

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 This county voted with the popular vote each time.

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    References

    1. "How many counties are in the United States?". Reunion Technology Inc. Retrieved June 10, 2022.
    2. McCormick, John (November 13, 2020). "Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election" . The Wall Street Journal . Retrieved November 17, 2020.
    3. 1 2 Leip, David. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". uselectionatlas.org . Retrieved November 22, 2020.
    4. 1 2 3 4 5 Obeng, Adam (April 26, 2016). "There Are No Bellwether Counties". The Huffington Post . Retrieved November 18, 2020.