2020 Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly election

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2020 Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly Election
Flag of Pakistan.svg
  2015 November 15, 2020 (2020-11-15) [a] 2026  

24 of the 33 seats in the Gilgit-Baltistan Legislative Assembly [b]
17 seats needed for a majority
Registered745,362 [2]
Turnout48.12%
 First partySecond partyThird party
  Flag of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf.svg Flag of Pakistan People's Party.svg PMLN 2021 Flag.png
Leader Khalid Khurshid Amjad Hussain Azar Hafiz Hafeezur Rehman
Party PTI PPP PML(N)
Leader's seat Astore-I (won) Gilgit-I (won)
Nagar-I (won)
Gilgit-II (lost)
Last election1 seat, 11.11%1 seat, 18.26%21 seats, 34.17%
Seats before1121
Seats won2253
Seat changeIncrease2.svg 21Increase2.svg 4Decrease2.svg 18
Popular vote---
Percentage---
Swing---

2020 Gilgit-Baltistan Election.svg
Gilgit Baltistan Assembly Constituencies and winning parties

Chief Minister before election

Hafiz Hafeezur Rehman
PML(N)

Elected Chief Minister

Khalid Khurshid
PTI

The 2020 Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly elections were held on 15 November 2020. [3] [4] [5] [6] Elections were held in 24 constituencies, each electing one member to the 3rd Gilgit-Baltistan Legislative Assembly. [7] [8] 330 candidates contested these elections, [9] either representing one of the political parties of Gilgit-Baltistan [9] (at the time of the 2020 elections) or being an independent candidate.

Contents

The elections were originally scheduled to be held on 18 August 2020, [10] [11] but were postponed in July [12] [13] due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which severely affected Gilgit-Baltistan.

The Pakistan Army was not called in to preside over the polls at the Election, with Mir Afzal, the Caretaker Chief Minister of Gilgit-Baltistan, giving a statement that the caretaker government had the capacity to hold free, fair, and transparent elections in Gilgit-Baltistan. [14] [15]

Opinion polling taken before the election had shown the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), the ruling party prior to the 2020 election, being the third-most-popular political party in Gilgit-Baltistan, falling from its earlier position of making the province's government and having the largest vote-bank. The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, which ruled nationally, led in the polls and the Pakistan Peoples Party had been shown as the second-most-popular political party.

745,362 voters in Gilgit-Baltistan had the ability to exercise their right to vote in the elections and will be able to vote across nearly 1,234 polling places across the province. This showed an increase of 126,998 new voters since 2015, when only 618,364 people were registered to vote. 405,365 of the people registered to vote are male and 339,997 are female (which shows a gender gap of 9%). [2] [16] [17]

The elections were postponed in the constituency GBA-3 (Gilgit-III), due to the PTI candidate in that constituency, who was the provincial party leader, dying of COVID-19 in early October. The election there were held on November 22, seven days after the election throughout the rest of Gilgit-Baltistan. [18] [1]

Preliminary and unofficial results showed the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf being all set to form the next government in Gilgit-Baltistan. They had won eleven general seats, Independent politicians had won seven seats, the Pakistan Peoples Party had won three seats, the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) had won two seats, and the Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen had won one seat.

In late November 2020, the final results revealed that the PTI won a two-thirds majority of seats (22 of 33). The PPP and PML-N won five and three seats, respectively. [19] [20]

Full results by districts were published on November 24. The latter two parties made claims of election fraud and supporters staged demonstrations to protest against the alleged rigging. [21]

Background

2015 elections

Following the elections in 2015, Pakistan Muslim League (N), emerged as the largest party winning 15 of the 24 general seats in the Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly, and securing a supermajority in the assembly after the three technocrat (two who went to PML(N)) and six women representatives (four who went to PML(N)) were added with a final total of 21 out of 33 seats. Hafiz Hafeezur Rehman was elected as the Chief Minister of Gilgit-Baltistan. [22] [23]

Timeline

Woman casting her vote during the election 2020 Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly election women.jpg
Woman casting her vote during the election

Parties

The table below lists the ten political parties that fielded at least three candidates (out of a possible 24 constituencies) or won at least one assembly seat in the 2020 Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly election, [9] and gives a detailed overview of their characteristics. Parties are initially ordered by their voteshare in the 2015 Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly Election.

NameNational
Leader
Claimed
Ideology(ies)
Voteshare
in 2015
General Assembly
Seats won in
the 2015 election [c]
Total seats in the 2nd
Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly
[c]
Total seats in the 3rd
Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly
[d]
Symbol
PML(N) Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz)
پاکستان مسلم لیگ (نواز)
Shehbaz Sharif Conservatism
Economic liberalism
Federalism
34.17%
15 / 24
21 / 33
3 / 33
Tiger
PPP Pakistan Peoples Party
پاکستان پیپلز پارٹی
Bilawal Bhutto
Zardari
Social Democracy
Secularism
Social liberalism
18.26%
1 / 24
1 / 33
5 / 33
Arrow
PTI Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf
پاکستان تحريکِ انصاف
Imran Khan Populism
Islamic Democracy
Welfarism
11.11%
1 / 24
1 / 33
22 / 33
Bat
MWM Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen
مجلس وحدتِ مسلمین
Allama Raja
Nasir Abbas
Pan-Islamism
Welfarism
Populism
10.50%
2 / 24
3 / 33
1 / 33
Tent
ITP Islami Tehreek Pakistan
اسلامی تحریک پاکستان
Syed Sajid
Ali Naqvi
Pan-Islamism 4.88%
2 / 24
3 / 33
0 / 33
Two Swords
JUI(F) Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (Fazl)
جمیعت علمائے اسلام (فضل)
Fazl-ur-Rahman Islamism
Clericalism
Conservatism
2.94%
1 / 24
3 / 33
1 / 33
Book
BNF [e] Balawaristan National Front (Naji)
بلاورستان نيشنل فرنٹ (ناجی)
Nawaz Khan Naji Gilgit-Baltistan
Autonomy
1.39%
1 / 24
1 / 33
1 / 33
Revolver
APML All Pakistan Muslim League
آل پاکستان مسلم لیگ
Pervez Musharraf Pakistani Nationalism
Islamic Democracy
Atlanticism
1.18%
0 / 24
0 / 33
0 / 33
Eagle
MQM(P) Muttahida Qaumi Movement (Pakistan)
(متحدہ قومی موومنٹ (پاکستان
Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui Liberalism
Muhajir Nationalism
Secularism
0.16%
0 / 24
0 / 33
0 / 33
Kite
PSP Pak Sarzameen Party
پاک سرزمین پارٹی
Syed Mustafa
Kamal
Pakistani Nationalism Did Not Contest 2015 Elections
0 / 33
Dolphin
PML(Q) Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid e Azam)
پاکستان مسلم لیگ (قائد اعظم)
Shujaat Hussain Conservatism
Pakistani Nationalism
Did Not Contest 2015 Elections
0 / 33
Tractor

Opinion Polls

In the run up to the 2020 Gilgit-Baltistan elections, various organisations have carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention throughout Gilgit-Baltistan. The results of such polls are displayed in this section. The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous general election, held on 8 June 2015, to the present day.

Voting Intention

The table below shows the results of polls taken which asked the people of Gilgit-Baltistan which political party they would vote for in the 2020 election.

Polling firmLast date
of polling
Link PML(N) PPP PTI JUI(F) Indep. Other LeadMargin
of error
Sample
size
Polling method
Pulse Consultant8 November 2020 HTML 14%26%35%4%12%9%+9%N/A1,423Field Interviews
Gallup Pakistan 6 November 202014%24%27%4%12%19%+3%±2-3%~1,000Unknown
2015 Election 8 June 2015 ECGB 34.17%18.40%11.11%4.45%31.87%+15.77%N/A379,032Final Election Results

Results

The two tables below show the results of the 2020 Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly Election by Political Party. The first table shows the results for the elections provincewide, through all 24 constituencies, and shows each political party's standing. The second table shows more detailed results for each of the 24 general constituencies.

On November 24, 2020, full results were published on the official Pakistani elections sites. PTI received 10 additional seats, earning it a historic two-thirds majority in the Assembly. [30] Independent candidates won 7 seats; Six of the independent candidates joined PTI after the election and the party already had a seat adjustment arrangement with the MWM. PPP got one seat reserved for women and one seat reserved for technocrats, whereas PMLN only got one reserved seat for women. The PPP party refused to accept the results and claimed election fraud. [31] [32]

Provincewide

Gilgit Baltistan Assembly 2020.svg
PartyVotes%Seats
GeneralWomenTechnocratsTotal+/–
PTI 164222+21
PPP 3115+4
PMLN 2103–18
MWM 1001–2
AML 00000
ITP 0000–4
JUI (F) 10010
MQM-P 0000New
PML(Q) 0000New
PSP 0000New
BNF 10010
TLP 0000New
Total2463330
Registered voters/turnout745,362

By Constituency

Constituency [9] Winner [9] Runner-up [9] MarginRegistered
Voters
Votes
Cast
Voter
Turnout
DistrictNameCandidatePartyVotes%CandidatePartyVotes%
Gilgit GBA-1 Amjad Hussain Azar PPP 11,178Sultan Rais IND 8,3562,82235,992
GBA-2 Fatehullah Khan PTI 6,69827.16%Jamil Ahmed PPP 6,69427.14%441,10824,66160.00%
GBA-3 Syed Sohail Abbas Shah PTI 6,873Muhammad Iqbal IND 4,6782,19541,36026,46163.98%
Nagar GBA-4 Amjad Hussain Azar PPP 4,716Muhammad Ayub ITP 4,29142523,17114,83764.03%
GBA-5 Javed Ali Manwa IND 2,570Rizwan Ali MWM 1,85072014,001
Hunza GBA-6 Abaid Ullah Baig PTI 5,710Noor Muhammad IND 4,6832,01443,60323,06052.89%
Skardu GBA-7 Raja Muhammad Zakaria Khan Maqpoon PTI 5,565 Syed Mehdi Shah PPP 4,1131,45217,127
GBA-8 Muhammad Kazim Maisam MWM 7,84235.35%Syed M. Ali Shah PPP 6,90431.12%93839,56722,18256.06%
GBA-9 Wazir Muhammad Saleem IND 6,286 Fida Muhammad Nashad PTI 5,1871,09925,562
GBA-10 Raja Nasir Ali Khan Maqpoon IND 4,81127.18%Wazir Hassan PTI 3,43919.43%1,37226,83917,70265.96%
Kharmang GBA-11 Syed Amjad Ali Zaidi PTI 5,733Syed Muhsin Rizvi IND 2,0163,71726,869
Shigar GBA-12 Raja Azam Khan Amacha PTI 10,674Imran Nadeem PPP 8,8861,78836,18324,80468.55%
Astore GBA-13 Muhammad Khalid Khurshid Khan PTI 4,836Abdul Hamid Khan PPP 3,1171,71933,37816,29848.83%
GBA-14 Shamsul Haq PTI 5,354Muzaffar Ali PPP 3,4731,88129,02315,51353.45%
Diamer GBA-15 Shah Baig IND 2,713Muhammad Dilpazir IND 2,30940435,18522,23763.20%
GBA-16 Muhammad Anwar PML(N) 4,813Attaullah IND 2,5762,23735,40521,45860.61%
Tangir GBA-17 Rehmat Khaliq JUI(F) 5,389Haider Khan PTI 5,12626329,95512,87042.96%
Darel GBA-18 Gulbar Khan PTI 6,793Malik Kifayat Ur Rehman IND 5,98680718,9079,66951.14%
Ghizer GBA-19 Nawaz Khan Naji BNF(N)

[e]

6,208Pir Jalal Ali Shah PPP 4,9671,24137,808
GBA-21 Ghulam Muhammad PML(N) 4,334M. Ayub Shah PPP 3,43090434,97320,05357.34%
Gupis-Yasin GBA-20 Nazir Ahmed PTI 5,592Khan Akbar Khan PML(Q) 3,8151,77742,533
Ghanche GBA-22 Mushtaq Hussain IND 6,051M. Ibrahim Sanai PTI 4,9451,10629,10417,16958.99%
GBA-23 Abdul Hameed IND 3,666Amina Ansari PTI 3,29637027,52215,39355.93%
GBA-24 Engr Mohammad Ismail PPP 6,239Syed Shamsuddin PTI 5,36184520,18712,25160.69%

Notes

  1. Except the election in the General Constituency of GBA-3 (Gilgit-III), where the election was postponed due to the death of a major candidate and was held on November 22. [1]
  2. Six seats are reserved for women, three seats are reserved for technocrats.
  3. 1 2 One member was an Independent politician
  4. One member was an Independent politician
  5. 1 2 Represented by Nawaz Khan Naji. Although Naji is the leader of Balawaristan National Front (N), he ran as an independent in the elections.

References

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