Ground-Based Midcourse Defense

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A Ground-Based Interceptor loaded into a silo at Fort Greely, Alaska in July 2004. OBV GBI 1.jpg
A Ground-Based Interceptor loaded into a silo at Fort Greely, Alaska in July 2004.

Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD), previously National Missile Defense (NMD), is an anti-ballistic missile system implemented by the United States of America for defense against ballistic missiles, during the midcourse phase of ballistic trajectory flight. It is a major component of the American missile defense strategy to counter ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) carrying nuclear, chemical, biological or conventional warheads. [1]

Contents

As of 2018, the system is composed of two interceptor staging bases in the states of Alaska and California, with 40 staged in the former, 4 staged in the latter, for a total of 44 interceptors, as well as the component early warning and targeting sensors based on land, sea, and in orbit. [2] [3] As of 2019, a Missile Defense Review has requested 20 additional interceptors to be based in Fort Greely, Alaska, though their delivery has not materialized. [4]

GMD is administered by the U.S. Missile Defense Agency (MDA), while operational control is provided by the U.S. Army, with support functions provided by the U.S. Air Force and U.S. Space Force.

Background

GMD after its renaming in 2002 remains a limited defense system, intended to protect the continental United States from limited launches of ballistic missiles. [5] Examples given in the past have included countries such as North Korea. [6]

GMD has undergone some controversy over its operational lifetime, such as with a study in 2000 by the Union of Concerned Scientists and the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology concluding that "[a]ny country capable of deploying a long-range missile would also be able to deploy countermeasures that would defeat the planned NMD system." Countermeasures studied in detail were bomblets containing biological or chemical agents, aluminized balloons to serve as decoys and to disguise warheads, and cooling warheads to reduce the kill vehicle's ability to detect them. [7] Currently, the Union of Concerned Scientists maintains that GMD is "unproven, unaccountable, and unhelpful for reducing the nuclear threat." [8]

More recently, questions have been asked about the Pentagon characterizing the January 28 test in 2016 as a success, when LA Times reported that the EKV suffered a fault in its reaction control system thrusters, which resulted in "a distance 20 times greater than what was expected" according to an anonymous Pentagon scientist. [9]

Under the Missile Defense Agency, GMD has conducted multiple test exercises, with mixed results. Early testing revealed deficiencies in the Ground Based Interceptor missile, as well as the Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle. However, with time, success rates increased, marred by the occasional technical failure such as in 2010's FTG-06 (Flight Test Ground-Based Interceptor) where the Sea-based X Band Radar failed to perform as expected, [10] and the subsequent FTG-06a where despite all elements performing correctly, intercept failed to occur. [11]

Description

Prototype of the Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle prototype.jpg
Prototype of the Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle

GMD is tied into existing United States missile warning infrastructure, as well as purpose built radar sites. It also encompasses 44 ground-based missile interceptors housed at two military bases.

Boeing Defense, Space & Security is the prime contractor of the program, tasked to oversee and integrate systems from other major defense sub-contractors, such as Computer Sciences Corporation and Raytheon.

The key sub-systems of the GMD system are:

Interceptor sites are at Fort Greely, Alaska [12] [13] [14] and Vandenberg Space Force Base, California. A third site was planned for a proposed US missile defense complex in Poland, [15] but was canceled in September 2009.

In December 2008, the U.S. Missile Defense Agency awarded Boeing a $397.9 million contract to continue development of the program. [16]

In March 2013, the Obama administration announced plans to add 14 interceptors to the current 26 at Fort Greely in response to North Korean threats. [17] The deployment of a second TPY-2 radar to Japan was announced at the same time. [18] While President Obama said that the additional deployment was a hedge against unexpected capabilities, Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Hong Lei complained that the additional defenses would affect the global strategic balance and strategic trust. [19] In late 2013, there were plans for a proposed Eastern United States missile defense site to house a battery of these missiles. [20]

On 30 April 2014, the Government Accountability Office issued a report stating that the system may not be operational any time soon because "its development was flawed". It said the GBI missile was at that point "capable of intercepting a simple threat in a limited way". [21] On 12 August 2015, Lt. General David L. Mann (commanding general USASMDC/ARSTRAT) characterized GMD as the nation's only ground-based defense against limited ICBM attacks. [21]

Issues with the EKV prompted the MDA to work with Raytheon, Boeing, and Lockheed Martin on a new Redesigned Kill Vehicle (RKV), scheduled to debut in 2025. [22] In 2019, the government issued a stop work order for the RKV after recent test results indicated that the current RKV plan is not viable. The government "initiated an analysis of alternative courses of action"; [23] on 21 August the MDA cancelled the $5.8 billion contract for the RKV. [24] This initiates new work on bids for the successor to the Exo-Atmospheric Kill Vehicle (EKV) to 2025. [24] [25] The current GMD programs continue per plan, with up to 64 GBIs (meaning an additional 20) in the missile fields for 2019. [26]

Program costs

Sea-based X-band Radar platform arriving in Pearl Harbor in January 2006. X band radar platform entering Pearl on Heavy lift Marlin.jpg
Sea-based X-band Radar platform arriving in Pearl Harbor in January 2006.

Expenditures on the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense program were estimated to be US$30.7 billion by 2007. [27] In 2013, it was estimated that the program would cost $40.926 billion from inception through fiscal year 2017; in 2013–17 spending was to total $4.46 billion, an average of $892 million per year. [28]

Flight tests

BV: Booster Verification Test
CMCM: Critical Measurements and Countermeasures
CTV: Control Test Vehicle
FTG: Flight Test Ground-Based Interceptor
FTX: Flight Test Other [29]
IFT: Integrated Flight Test

Intercept tests

After the FTG-12 test on 11 December 2023, 12 of the 21 (57%) hit-to-kill intercept tests have succeeded. No flight intercept tests from 2010 to 2013 were successful. [30] In response the Pentagon asked for a budget increase and another test for the fielded program. [31] The successful intercept FTG-15 was accomplished by an operational team of the 100th Missile Defense Brigade using their standard operating procedures (round-the-clock 24/7). [32] Although they knew in advance that there would be a test launch, they did not know exactly when it would occur or its exact nature. [32]

NamedateResultDescription [33] [34] [35]
IFT-32 Oct 1999SuccessThis was an element test of the EKV that relied on a surrogate booster vehicle. Because the Inertial Measurement Unit malfunctioned, the EKV used a backup acquisition mode to acquire the target.
IFT-418 Jan 2000FailureThis was the first end-to-end system test, again relying on a surrogate booster vehicle. The test was designed to target a mock warhead, transmitting its location by GPS, and ignore a single large decoy balloon. The failure to intercept was traced to an obstructed cooling line on the EKV that disrupted the IR sensors' ability to cool down to their operating temperatures in time, leaving the EKV unable to detect its target.
IFT-58 Jul 2000FailureThis was the second end-to-end system test. The test was designed to target a mock warhead, transmitting its location by C-band, and ignore a single large decoy balloon. The failure to intercept occurred because the EKV did not separate from the boost vehicle due to an apparent failure of the 1553 data bus in the booster.
IFT-614 Jul 2001SuccessThis test repeated IFT-5. The prototype X-Band radar falsely reported a missed target but was confirmed by a satellite, jet, and ground stations.
IFT-73 Dec 2001SuccessThis test repeated IFT-6 except that the target booster used Orbital's Target Launch Vehicle instead of Lockheed Martin's Multi-Service Launch System.
IFT-815 Mar 2002SuccessThe test was designed to target a mock warhead, transmitting its location by C-band, and ignore both a large decoy balloon and two small decoy balloons.
IFT-914 Oct 2002SuccessTwice delayed from August, this was the first test to use the Aegis SPY-1 radar, although it was not used to achieve the intercept. After the classification of decoys since May 2002, no information is known on their details.
IFT-1011 Dec 2002FailureThe failure to intercept occurred because the EKV did not separate from the boost vehicle because a pin broke that should have activated a laser to release the boost vehicle's restraining units.
IFT-13C15 Dec 2004FailureDelayed several times from December 2003 due to bad circuitry, this test was designed to use the Orbital Sciences booster from Kwajalein to hit a target from Kodiak, Alaska. The target flew as planned but the booster failed to leave the ground. The failure was traced to a software problem on the 1553 communications data bus, which may be incapable of processing messages at a rate that is fast enough for the GMD system to work effectively.
IFT-1413 Feb 2005FailureThis test repeated IFT-13C, with a booster from Kwajalein designed to hit a target from Kodiak, Alaska. Again, the target flew as planned but the booster failed to leave the ground. The failure was traced to the arms that hold the interceptor up in the silo. When they failed to fully retract, the launch was automatically aborted.
FTG-021 Sep 2006SuccessThis test involved the first ground-based interceptor launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base to intercept a "threat-representative" target from Kodiak, Alaska. This was the first time that operational radar was used to capture targeting information. Not officially an intercept test, this was originally designed to collect data on the phenomenology of the intercept and act as a radar certification test. No decoys were used. [36]
FTG-0325 May 2007FailureWith the same setup as FTG-02, the test target flew off-course and an intercept did not occur.
FTG-03A28 Sep 2007SuccessThis test was scheduled in response to the failure of FTG-03, this time with a successful intercept.
FTG-055 Dec 2008SuccessThis test launched a threat-representative mock warhead from Kodiak Launch Complex, Alaska followed by a Ground-Based Interceptor from Vandenberg AFB. All components performed as designed. [37]
FTG-0631 Jan 2010FailureThis test was to be the first to assess both a CE-II EKV and a complex target scene and the first test to use a newly developed FTF LV-2 target. [38] While the target missile and interceptor launched and performed nominally, the Sea Based X-Band Radar did not perform as expected, and an investigation will explain the failure to intercept. [10]
FTG-06a15 Dec 2010FailureThis test was similar to FTG-06, over a distance of 4,200 miles. [39] While the Sea Based X-Band radar and all sensors performed as planned, the test was unable to achieve the planned intercept of a ballistic missile target. [11]
FTG-075 Jul 2013Failure [40] [41] This intercept test used an improved CE-I EKV. [42]
FTG-06b22 Jun 2014Success [43] This test is designed to demonstrate an intercept and meet the unmet objectives of FTG-06a. [34] [42]
FTG-1530 May 2017Success [44] The test involved the new CE-II Block-I version of the EKV, which executed a direct collision with the ICBM target. [45] [46] [47]
FTG-1125 Mar 2019Success [48] This test used two interceptors, [49] one to crash into a dummy target representing an incoming ICBM and another to use sensors to detect another ICBM or other countermeasures. [50] [51]
FTG-1211 Dec 2023Success [52] This test used a CE-II EKV and was the first test of a three-stage GBI operating in a two-stage mode—releasing its kill vehicle earlier by not igniting the GBI's third stage. [52] It was launched from Vandenberg Space Force Base and successfully intercepted an IRBM deployed from a C-17 aircraft over the Pacific Ocean. [53]

Non-intercept tests

NamedateResultDescription [33] [54] [55]
IFT-1A24 Jun 1997SuccessThis test allowed the program to assess the Boeing EKV seeker's ability to collect target phenomenological data, and evaluate target modeling and discrimination algorithms for a cluster of 10 objects.
IFT-216 Jan 1998SuccessThis test allowed the program to assess the Raytheon EKV seeker's ability to collect target phenomenological data, and evaluate target modeling and discrimination algorithms for a cluster of 10 objects. As a result, Raytheon was selected over Boeing and was awarded the EKV contract.
BV-128 Apr 2001SuccessThis was a ground test to certify the procedures that lead to an actual flight test, including all ground and safety checks as well as launch and safety steps. The missile was not launched.
BV-231 Aug 2001SuccessThis was a flight test of three-stage Boeing Booster Vehicle with a mass-simulated kill vehicle payload. An anomaly occurred in the first-stage vehicle roll control, but the second- and third-stage motors performed normally.
BV-313 Dec 2001FailureThis flight test resulted in failure when the Boeing Booster Vehicle steered off course 30 seconds after launch and was then ordered to self-destruct off the coast of California.
BV-616 Aug 2003SuccessThis was a flight test of the three-stage Orbital Sciences Booster Vehicle with a mass-simulated kill vehicle payload. The launch from Vandenberg Air Force Base proceeded normally over the Pacific Ocean.
BV-59 Jan 2004FailureThis flight test of the Lockheed Martin Booster Vehicle with a mass-simulated kill vehicle payload resulted in failure due to an apparent power drop that prevented the mock EKV from separating from the booster. The flight was delayed by the third-stage rocket motor's circuit boards.
IFT-13B26 Jan 2004SuccessThis was a system-level test of the Orbital Sciences booster carrying a simulated EKV from Kwajalein Atoll against a simulated target from Vandenberg AFB in California.
Medium-range air-launch target8 Apr 2005SuccessThis test featured a C-17 dropping a medium-range target from its rear, 800 miles (1,300 km) northwest of the Pacific Missile Range Facility in Hawaii.
CMCM-1A/FT 04-2A4 Aug 2005SuccessThis test was the first of two medium-range target vehicles.
CMCM-1B/FT 04-2B18 Aug 2005SuccessThis test was the second of two medium-range target vehicles. [56]
FT 04-5/FTG 04-526 Sep 2005SuccessThis test was an apparent variant of IFT-19 and featured an air-launched long-range target tracked by Cobra Dane radar.
FT-113 Dec 2005SuccessOriginally designed as IFT-13A, this test featured an interceptor missile from the Ronald Reagan test site in the Marshall Islands to hit a target from Kodiak, Alaska. The operationally configured warhead and its booster left the ground successfully.
FTX-01/FT 04-123 Feb 2006SuccessOriginally designed as IFT-16, then changed to a radar characterization flight test as IFT-16A, then FT 04-1, then FTX-01. This test incorporated radar and targets testing.
CMCM-2B/FTC-02B13 Apr 2006SuccessThis test was a radar certification flight and featured a missile system powered by a two-stage SR-19 rocket flown from the Kauai Test Facility in the Pacific Missile Range Facility. The payload included complex countermeasures, a mock reentry vehicle, and on-board sensor package.
CMCM-2A/FTC-02A28 Apr 2006SuccessThis test repeated FTC-02B to test its radars in the Pacific Missile Range Facility in Hawaii against a target missile that carried countermeasures, a mock warhead, and an on-board sensor package.
FTX-0227 Mar 2007Partial successThis test of the Sea-Based X-Band Radar revealed "anomalous behavior", and demonstrated a need for software modifications to improve performance.
FTX-0318 Jul 2008SuccessThis test demonstrated the integration of missile defense sensors to support an interceptor engagement. This revealed the success of the Sea-Based X-Band Radar to be used in future missions. [57]
BVT-016 Jun 2010SuccessA two-stage Ground-Based Interceptor successfully launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base, and after separating from the second-stage booster, the exoatmospheric kill vehicle executed a variety of maneuvers to collect data to further prove its performance in space. All components performed as designed. [58]
GM CTV-0126 Jan 2013SuccessThe three-stage booster deployed the Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle to a point in space and executed a variety of pre-planned maneuvers to collect performance data. Initial indications are that all components performed as designed. [34] [59]
GM CTV-0228 Jan 2016FailureA long-range ground-based interceptor was launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base to evaluate performance of alternate divert thrusters for the system's Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle. The test had planned for the interceptor to fly within a narrow "miss distance" of its target to test the new thrusters' effectiveness. The U.S. military initially stated the test had been a success. [60]

But the closest the interceptor came to the target was a distance 20 times greater than what was expected. One of the four thrusters stopped working during the maneuvers, and the interceptor peeled away from its intended course, according to the Pentagon scientists. One of them said the thruster remained inoperable through the final, "homing phase" of the test, when the kill vehicle was supposed to make a close fly-by of the target. [61] MDA acknowledged that a problem surfaced during 28 January exercise: "There was an observation unrelated to the new thruster hardware that has been investigated and successfully root-caused," the agency said in a written response to questions. "Any necessary corrective actions will be taken for the next flight test." [61]

Canceled tests

Throughout the program's history, multiple test flights have been canceled, including BV-4, IFT-11, −12, −13, −13A, −15, FTC-03, and, most recently, FTG-04. [62] [63]

Estimated effectiveness

The system has a "single shot probability of kill" of its interceptors calculated at 56%, [2] with the total probability of intercepting a single target, if four interceptors are launched, at 97%. [2] Each interceptor costs approximately $75 million. [2]

See also

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  22. ↑ Wichner, David (26 March 2019). "ICBM target downed in key test of missile defense, Raytheon Warhead". Arizona Daily Star . Retrieved 26 March 2019– via tucson.com.
  23. ↑ Capaccio, Anthony (6 June 2019). "As North Korea Threat Grows, U.S. Anti-Missile Warhead Stumbles" . Retrieved 14 July 2019.
  24. 1 2 Insinna, Valerie (21 August 2019). "Pentagon Cancels Multi-Billion $ Boeing Missile Defense Program".
  25. ↑ Loren Thompson (8 Oct 2019) Inside The U.S. Missile Defense Agency's Secret Next Generation Interceptor
    • 50 threat scenarios have been defined (Classified)
    • The GBIs will be Hit-to-kill
    • Each GBI will have multiple warheads (multiple kill vehicles)
    • The GBIs will fit in existing silos
    • The GBIs are expected by 2026
    • The interim GBI solution until then is to be determined
  26. ↑ Judson, Jen (23 July 2020). "Cost tripled for missile defense warhead, despite prior warnings, GAO finds". Defense News.
  27. ↑ "More Dollars, Less Sense, Individual Contract Report: Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (Missile Defense)" Archived 3 November 2008 at the Wayback Machine . United States House of Representatives, Committee on Oversight And Government Reform, June 2007.
  28. ↑ "GAO-13-294SP, DEFENSE ACQUISITIONS Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs" (PDF). US Government Accountability Office. 26 March 2013. p. 51. Retrieved 26 May 2013.
  29. ↑ Lehner, Rick (20 December 2008). "Missile Defense Agency Successfully Completes Ground Test for Data Collection to Improve Modeling and Simulation" (PDF). Retrieved 8 July 2013.
  30. ↑ Reif, Kingston (11 February 2014). "The Defense That Does not Defend: More problems for national missile defense". armscontrolcenter.org. Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation. Archived from the original on 21 February 2014. Retrieved 12 February 2014.
  31. ↑ Hills, Amy (14 February 2014). "2015 MDA Request Ignite Old Debate On the Cost of Success". aviationweek.com. Penton. Archived from the original on 31 August 2014. Retrieved 14 February 2014.
  32. 1 2 "In Their Words: Missile defense crew recounts intercontinental ballistic missile target flight test". army.mil. 18 December 2017. Flight Test Ground-based Interceptor-15, or FTG-15, showcased the system's capabilities, as it was the first successful interception of a simulated intercontinental ballistic missile target by a ground-based interceptor launched by the GMD system. [] while the crew was aware there would be a test launch, they were not privy to the exact nature of what they would face and when.
  33. 1 2 "Missile Defense Integrated Test Flights" (PDF). Center for Defense Information. 18 June 2007. Archived from the original (PDF) on 14 April 2012.
  34. 1 2 3 "Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD)" (PDF). U.S. Office of the Director, Operational Test & Evaluation. 2012. p. 288. Archived from the original (PDF) on 4 March 2016. Retrieved 7 July 2013.
  35. ↑ "Ballistic Missile Defense Intercept Flight Test Record" (PDF). Missile Defense Agency. 8 July 2013. Archived from the original (PDF) on 27 September 2017. Retrieved 8 July 2013.
  36. ↑ "Missile Defense Exercise and Flight Test Successfully Completed" (PDF). Missile Defense Agency. 1 September 2006. Archived from the original (PDF) on 17 October 2020. Retrieved 18 January 2019.
  37. ↑ "Missile Defense Flight Test Results in Successful Intercept" (PDF). Missile Defense Agency . 5 December 2008. Retrieved 6 December 2008.
  38. ↑ "Defense Acquisitions: Charting a Course for Improved Missile Defense Testing". Government Accountability Office . 25 February 2009. Archived from the original on 7 January 2010. Retrieved 1 January 2010.
  39. ↑ "Missile Defense Test Conducted". Lompoc Record. 10 December 2010. Retrieved 15 December 2010.
  40. ↑ "Missile Defense Test Conducted" (Press release). U.S. Department of Defense. 5 July 2013.
  41. ↑ "Missile Defense Test Conducted" (Press release). 5 July 2013. Retrieved 18 January 2019.
  42. 1 2 "Unclassified Statement of Vice Admiral James D. Syring Director, Missile Defense Agency" (PDF). United States Senate via MDA.mil. pp. 5–6. Retrieved 7 July 2013.
  43. ↑ "U.S. missile defense system destroys target in key test". Reuters. 22 June 2014. Retrieved 18 January 2019.
  44. ↑ "US successfully intercepts ICBM in historic test". ABC News. 30 May 2017.
  45. ↑ "Could FTG-15 Delays Prevent the Deployment of 44 GBIs by the End of 2017?". 2 February 2017.
  46. ↑ "With eyes on North Korea, U.S. successfully destroys mock ICBM over Pacific" . Retrieved 30 May 2017.
  47. ↑ Judson, Jen (8 August 2017). "Missile takedown: Historic ICBM intercept test sends strong message to North Korea". Defense News.
  48. ↑ Burns, Robert (25 March 2019). "Pentagon: missile defense test succeeds in shootdown". Associated Press. Archived from the original on 26 March 2019. Retrieved 25 March 2019– via The Washington Post.
  49. ↑ Sheely, Zachary (5 April 2019). "National Guard Soldiers at forefront of most significant test in missile defense history". army.mil. United States Army. Retrieved 22 April 2019.
  50. ↑ Zargham, Mohammad (25 March 2019). Reese, Chris (ed.). "U.S. military says it conducts successful missile defense test". Reuters . Retrieved 25 March 2019.
  51. ↑ Capaccio, Anthony (24 March 2019). "Trickiest U.S. Missile Defense Test Is Finally Ready to Launch". Bloomberg. Retrieved 25 March 2019.
  52. 1 2 "Homeland Missile Defense System Conducts Successful Intercept Of Target". Missile Defense Agency. 11 December 2023. Retrieved 12 December 2023.
  53. ↑ Homeland defense interceptor defeats ballistic missile in test, Jen Judson, Defense News, 2023-12-12
  54. ↑ "Missile Defense BV Test Flights" (PDF). Center for Defense Information. 5 May 2005. Archived from the original (PDF) on 14 April 2012.
  55. ↑ Parsch, Andreas. "Boeing Ground-Based Interceptor (GBI)". Directory of U.S. Military Rockets and Missiles. Archived from the original on 4 September 2006. Retrieved 25 June 2014.
  56. ↑ "Orbital Successfully Launches Second Target Rocket for U.S. Missile Defense Agency's CMCM-1 Program; Two Launches in Two Weeks Conducted at Hawaii's Pacific Missile Site". Business Wire. 23 August 2005.
  57. ↑ "U.S. missile defense sensor test called successful". Associated Press. 18 July 2008.
  58. ↑ "Modified Ground-Based Interceptor Completes Successful Flight Test". Missile Defense Agency . 6 June 2010. Retrieved 15 December 2010.
  59. ↑ "Ground-Based Interceptor Completes Successful Flight Test". Missile Defense Agency. 26 January 2013. Retrieved 18 January 2019.
  60. ↑ "Ground-based Midcourse Defense System Conducts Successful Flight Test". Missile Defense Agency. 28 January 2016. Retrieved 28 January 2016.
  61. 1 2 "A test of America's homeland missile defense system found a problem. Why did the Pentagon call it a success?". Los Angeles Times . 6 July 2016.
  62. ↑ "GMD Test Cancelled by MDA". Center for Defense Information. 16 June 2008. Archived from the original on 10 December 2008.
  63. ↑ Samson, Victoria (16 June 2008). "GMD Test Cancelled by MDA". Archived from the original on 28 August 2009. Retrieved 15 July 2009.
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