Guatemalan general election, 2015

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Guatemalan presidential election, 2015
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←  2011 6 September 2015
25 October 2015		 2019  →
  Reunion OPIC (cropped).jpg Sandra torres 2 (cropped).jpg
Nominee Jimmy Morales Sandra Torres
Party FCN UNE
Home state Guatemala City Petén
Running mate Jafeth Cabrera Mario Leal
States carried202
Popular vote2,751,0581,328,342
Percentage67.44%32.56%
Eleccion presidencial Guatemala 2015 primera vuelta.png
Results of first round by department:
dark blue for Morales; red for Baldizón;
green for Torres; and light blue for Estrada.
President before election

Alejandro Maldonado
Independent

President-elect

Jimmy Morales
FCN

Guatemala
Coat of arms of Guatemala.svg
This article is part of a series on the
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Judiciary

General elections were held in Guatemala on 6 September 2015 to elect the President and Vice President, all 158 Congress deputies, all 20 deputies to the Central American Parliament, and mayors and councils for all 338 municipalities in the country.

Guatemala republic in Central America

Guatemala, officially the Republic of Guatemala, is a country in Central America bordered by Mexico to the north and west, Belize and the Caribbean to the northeast, Honduras to the east, El Salvador to the southeast and the Pacific Ocean to the south. With an estimated population of around 16.6 million, it is the most populated country in Central America. Guatemala is a representative democracy; its capital and largest city is Nueva Guatemala de la Asunción, also known as Guatemala City.

President of Guatemala head of state and head of government of Guatemala

The President of Guatemala officially known as the President of the Republic of Guatemala, is the head of state and head of government of Guatemala, elected to a single four-year term.

Vice President of Guatemala political position in Guatemala

Vice President of Guatemala is a political position in Guatemala which is since 1966 elected concurrently with the position of President of Guatemala. The current Vice President is Jafeth Cabrera.

Contents

The Renewed Democratic Liberty became the largest party in Congress with 44 seats. Since no presidential candidate received more than 50% of the vote, a run-off took place on 25 October. Jimmy Morales won the contest, taking 67.4% of the vote, in a landslide victory over Sandra Torres.

Renewed Democratic Liberty was a centre-right political party in Guatemala.

Jimmy Morales Guatemalan politician, film director and film producer

Jimmy Morales is a Guatemalan politician, actor, screenwriter and director, who won the 2015 Guatemalan presidential election and has served as President of Guatemala since January 2016. He joined the National Convergence Front (FCN/Nation) party in 2013 and became its General Secretary. Prior to his entry into politics he was a comic actor.

Sandra Torres (politician) First Lady of Guatemala

Sandra Julieta Torres Casanova is a Guatemalan politician and current presidential candidate who was First Lady of Guatemala from 2008 to 2011, as the wife of President Álvaro Colom Caballeros. She was the runner up of the Presidential election of 2015 in the runoff against Jimmy Morales.

It was the first presidential election since 1999 in which the runner-up of the previous contest did not then go on to win.

Background

Ahead of the election, the La Linea corruption case involving high-ranking officials of the outgoing administration, including President Otto Pérez Molina and Vice President Roxana Baldetti, was made public by the International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala. Baldetti resigned in May and was arrested on fraud charges in August. More than a dozen ministers and deputy ministers as well as a number of government officials also resigned. Less than a week before the election, President Pérez was stripped of his immunity, resigned and was arrested. Alejandro Maldonado Aguirre acts as head of state until a new president is elected and sworn into office. The scandal has further diminished many Guatemalans' trust in the political elite. Some of the participants of mass protests against corruption demanded a postponement of the election due to the crisis and claims of irregularities. [1] [2]

Otto Pérez Molina President of Guatemala

Otto Fernando Pérez Molina is a Guatemalan politician and retired military officer, who was President of Guatemala from 2012 to 2015. Standing as the Patriotic Party candidate, he lost the 2007 presidential election but prevailed in the 2011 presidential election. During the 1990s, before entering politics, he served as Director of Military Intelligence, Presidential Chief of Staff under President Ramiro de León Carpio, and as chief representative of the military for the Guatemalan Peace Accords. On being elected President, he called for the legalization of drugs.

Roxana Baldetti Guatemalan politician

Ingrid Roxana Baldetti Elías was the first female Vice President of Guatemala from 2012 until her resignation amid a corruption scandal in 2015.

The International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala is an international body charged with investigating and prosecuting serious crime in Guatemala. On January 7, 2019 the agreement between the United Nations and Guatemala was terminated by Guatemalan president Jimmy Morales, evoking CICIG´s alleged participation in illegal acts, abuse of authority and acts against the constitution. The UN rejected this unilateral termination, and the country's highest law court ruled against the president's decision CICIG's term was scheduled to end in September 2019. Morales' decision, approved by the country's business elite, triggered an institutional crisis in Guatemala, as the Constitutional court sided with CICIG. Morales is being investigated concerning his campaign financing

Possible Belize referendum

In May 2015, Belize allowed Guatemala to proceed with a referendum asking the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to definitively rule on Guatemala's longstanding territorial dispute against Belize, although Belize by its own admission was not ready for such a vote. A previous treaty between the two countries stipulated that any such vote must be held simultaneously. Guatemala was initially expected to hold its referendum on the issue during its second round of presidential elections in October 2015. [3] Belize has yet to announce its vote on the matter. [4]

Belize country in Central America

Belize is a country located on the eastern coast of Central America. Belize is bordered on the northwest by Mexico, on the east by the Caribbean Sea, and on the south and west by Guatemala. It has an area of 22,970 square kilometres (8,867 sq mi) and a population of 387,879 (2017). Its mainland is about 180 mi (290 km) long and 68 mi (110 km) wide. It has the lowest population and population density in Central America. The country's population growth rate of 1.87% per year (2015) is the second highest in the region and one of the highest in the Western Hemisphere.

International Court of Justice primary judicial organ of the United Nations

The International Court of Justice (ICJ) sometimes called the World Court, is the principal judicial organ of the United Nations (U.N.). It settles legal disputes submitted by states and gives advisory opinions on legal issues referred by authorized U.N. organs and specialized agencies. Through its opinions and rulings, the ICJ also serves as a source of international law.

Belizean–Guatemalan territorial dispute

The Belizean–Guatemalan territorial dispute is an unresolved binational territorial dispute between the states of Belize and Guatemala, neighbours in Central America. The territory of Belize has been claimed in whole or in part by Guatemala since 1821.

When Jimmy Morales was running for president, a Guatemalan journalist asked Morales which Guatemalan historical event he thought was the most deplorable. Morales responded, "The most deplorable event – among all the things that have happened in Guatemala, there are certain things that are not spoken about and which I believe we should. Everything that goes contrary to national unity and territorial integrity are things that should hurt us. Something is happening right now, we are about to lose Belize. We have not lost it yet. We still have the possibility of going to the International Court of Justice where we can fight that territory or part of that territory. ... I think that it is worth anything that is natural resources and of benefit to the nation." [3]

Electoral system

The President of Guatemala is elected using the two-round system. The 158 members of Congress are elected by two methods; 31 members are elected by closed list proportional representation in a single nationwide constituency, with seats allocated using the d'Hondt method. The other 127 seats are elected in 23 multi-member constituencies based on the departments (with the Central District or Guatemala City as a separate constituency) also using the d'Hondt method. [5]

Around 7.5 million people registered for the elections. Members of the armed forces (Air Force, Army, and Navy), people in prison, and Guatemalans living abroad were not allowed to vote. [6] The Tribunal Supremo Electoral (Supreme Electoral Tribunal) officially called for general elections on 2 May 2015.

Campaign

LIDER party campaign posters Campagne du parti Lider elections 2015.jpg
LIDER party campaign posters

A total of 14 candidates were registered to contest the presidential elections: [7]

In the buildup to the elections the Patriotic Party (PP) and Renewed Democratic Liberty (LIDER) were suspended due to repeated offences. However, all parties were reinstated before elections were called. [9] [10]

Presidential candidates

National Convergence Front
Jimmy Morales Jafeth Cabrera
for Presidentfor Vice President
Visita de Estado del Presidente de Guatemala ; Jimmy Morales. (25772034823) (cropped).jpg
Jafeth Cabrera-Embajada - cropped.jpg
General Secretary of National Convergence Front
(2013- )
Candidate for Mayor of Mixco
(2011)		Rector of the University of San Carlos
(1994-1998)
Secretary of Agrarian Affairs
(2004-2008)


National Unity of Hope
Sandra Torres Mario Leal
for Presidentfor Vice President
Sandra torres (cropped).jpg
Mario Leal (vicepresidenciable).jpg
General Secretary of National Unity of Hope
(2012- )
First Lady of Guatemala
(2008-2011)		Secretary of Specific Affairs of the Presidency
(2012-2014)

Opinion polls

A poll released on 3 September gave Morales 25% of the vote, compared to 22.9% for Manuel Baldizon and 18.4% for Sandra Torres. [11]

Results

President

The front runners: Morales, Baldizón and Torres, were expected to competitively compete for the position of President. In the first round, Morales gained 24% of the vote, followed by a closely fought battle between Torres and Baldizón, with less than 20,000 votes separating the two. Since no candidate received a 50% majority, the top two candidates participated in the run-off in October. Morales won the run-off contest with 67.4% of the vote to Torres' 32.6%. Morales, a comedic actor, won with the slogan "not corrupt, nor a thief". [12]

CandidatePartyFirst roundSecond round
Votes%Votes%
Jimmy Morales National Convergence Front 1,152,39423.992,751,05867.44
Sandra Torres National Unity of Hope 948,80919.761,328,34232.56
Manuel Baldizón Renewed Democratic Liberty 930,90519.38
Alejandro Giammattei Fuerza 313,6286.53
Zury Ríos Vision with Values 286,7305.97
Lizardo Sosa Todos 259,6735.41
Mario David García Patriotic Party 214,5324.47
Roberto González Díaz-Durán CREO–Unionist Party 166,9603.48
Mario Estrada National Change Union 163,9743.41
Juan Guillermo Gutiérrez National Advancement Party 149,9253.12
Miguel Ángel Sandoval Winaq–URNG–MAIZ 101,3472.11
José Ángel López Encounter for Guatemala 43,9160.91
Luis Fernando Pérez Institutional Republican Party 41,5540.87
Aníbal García New Republic Movement 28,3830.59
Invalid/blank votes467,759–176,647–
Total5,270,4891004,242,854100
Registered voters/turnout7,556,87369.747,556,87356.15
Source: TSE

Congress

In Congress, Baldizón's LIDER gained 31 seats on their previous election making them the largest party with 45 seats. Torres' UNE retained second position with 32 seats, despite losing 16. Competing in their first election, Todos captured 18 seats. PP suffered the greatest loss, losing 38 seats overall, down to 18. Morales' FCN gained 11 seats.

PartyNationalDistrictTotal
seats		+/–
Votes%SeatsVotes%Seats
Renewed Democratic Liberty 860,78318.887903,64419.293845+31
National Unity of Hope 676,08014.835728,10615.542732–16
Todos 445,9969.783495,12910.571518New
Patriotic Party 419,3539.203501,02910.701518–38
National Convergence Front 403,0868.843338,0607.22811+11
Encuentro por Guatemala 289,6466.352217,6124.6557–
CREO–Unionist Party 261,0405.732269,9395.7635–8
National Change Union 244,7885.372264,4375.6557–7
Winaq–URNG–MAIZ 198,7154.36145,7310.9801–
Convergence 175,5153.851167,3633.5723New
Vision with Values 168,7073.701237,1185.0645–
National Advancement Party 158,3093.471113,3542.4223+1
Fuerza 95,3922.09092,2441.9722New
Institutional Republican Party 58,8111.29062,7631.3400–1
New Republic Movement 41,9540.92044,4430.9500New
Reform Movement 36,6930.80039,2950.8400New
Heart New Nation23,8800.52013,9920.3000New
URNG–MAIZ –––112,1232.3911–
Winaq –––29,9240.6400–
My Country–––6,4520.1400New
CREO –––1,3750.0300–
Invalid/blank votes712,352––612,313––––
Total5,271,100100315,296,4461001271580
Registered voters/turnout7,556,87369.75–7,556,87370.09–––
Source: TSE

Reactions

Following his victory, Morales vowed "I will try with all my heart and strength not to disappoint you." [13] The US-based National Public Radio described this a rightward shift among voters in both the Americas and Europe. [14]

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References

  1. ↑ Jo Tuckman (27 August 2015). "Guatemalan president faces growing threat of impeachment amid scandal". The Guardian.
  2. ↑ Fernando del Rincón; Rafael Romo (7 September 2015). "Guatemala election: Millions vote, but runoff widely expected". CNN.
  3. 1 2 Trujillo, Renee. "Presidential Candidate for Guatemala Says Belize Can Still Be Fought For", LOVE FM, 9 September 2015 (retrieved 28 September 2015)
  4. ↑ Ramos, Adele. "Belize and Guatemala to amend ICJ compromis", Amandala , 12 May 2015. (retrieved 14 May 2015)
  5. ↑ Electoral system IPU
  6. ↑ "Órgano electoral da luz verde a comicios generales". s21.com.gt. Retrieved 7 September 2015.
  7. ↑ "Candidatos Presidenciales 2015 Guatemala". guatemalaelecciones.com. Retrieved 6 September 2015.
  8. ↑ Louisa Reynolds (10 June 2015). "In Guatemala, anti-establishment presidential candidate benefits from corruption scandals". The Tico Times.
  9. ↑ Flor de María Ortiz. "2015 electoral season already started" (in Spanish). Guatemala: lahora.com.gt. Archived from the original on 14 December 2011. Retrieved 13 August 2013.
  10. ↑ http://www.elperiodico.com.gt/es/20141221/pais/6476/Partidos-suspendidos-son-multados--otra-vez-por-campaña-anticipada.htm
  11. ↑ France 24 news report, 6 September 2015
  12. ↑ Jimmy Morales Is Elected New President in Guatemala The New York Times, 26 October 2015
  13. ↑ Ex-comedian Jimmy Morales in landslide Guatemala election victory Financial Times, 26 October 2015
  14. ↑ Voters In Poland, Guatemala And Argentina Surprise Establishment Candidates NPR, 26 October 2015
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