Invest (meteorology)

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Invest 97L emerging off the coast of Africa on August 8, 2022. Note the cyclonic shape. 97L 2022-08-08 1210Z.jpg
Invest 97L emerging off the coast of Africa on August 8, 2022. Note the cyclonic shape.

In meteorology, an invest (a clipping of "investigative area") [1] is a designated area of disturbed weather that is being monitored for potential tropical cyclone development. Invests are designated by three separate United States forecast centers: the National Hurricane Center, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Contents

Invests (also called areas of interest) are designated by three separate forecast centers located in the United States: the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, overseeing the North Atlantic and North Eastern Pacific basins (east of the 140°W meridian); the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii, monitoring the North Central Pacific basin (between the International Date Line and the 140°W meridian); and the military Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii (formerly located in the island of Guam), serving U.S. government interests elsewhere (i.e. the North Western Pacific basin west of the International Date Line). The designation of a system as an invest does not necessarily correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone (tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane/typhoon).

Designation

INVEST Numbering (NHC/CPHC/JTWC)
Basin(s) Warning
Center
SuffixRolling numbers
N Atlantic NHC Lfrom Invest-90L
to Invest-99L
NE Pacific
(E of 140°W)
Efrom Invest-90E
to Invest-99E
NC Pacific
(E of  IDL, W of 140°W)
CPHC Cfrom Invest-90C
to Invest-99C
NW Pacific
(W of IDL)
JTWC Wfrom Invest-90W
to Invest-99W
N Indian O.
(Bay of Bengal)
JTWC
(unoff.)
Bfrom Invest-90B
to Invest-99B
N Indian O.
(Arabian Sea)
Afrom Invest-90A
to Invest-99A
SW Indian O. & Australian reg.
(W of 135°E)
Sfrom Invest-90S
to Invest-99S
Australian reg. & S Pacific
(E of 135°E)
Pfrom Invest-90P
to Invest-99P
S Atlantic NRL , NHCQfrom Invest-90Q
to Invest-99Q
Mediterranean SAB Mfrom Invest-90M
to Invest-99M

Invests are numbered from 90 to 99, followed by a suffix letter "L" in the North Atlantic basin, "E" and "C" in the Eastern and Central Pacific basins (respectively), or "W" in the Western Pacific basin. [2]

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center also issues unofficial warnings for U.S. government interests (predominantly military) in the Southern Hemisphere, designating tropical invests with the "S" suffix when they form west of 135°E (this spans the whole South Indian Ocean, including the South-Western Indian Ocean basin and the western half of the Australian-region basin), and the "P" suffix when they form east of 135°E (spans both the eastern half of the Australian region and the South Pacific basin). In addition, invests in the North Indian Ocean cyclone basin are also labelled by the JTWC, and are suffixed with "A" if they form in the Arabian Sea and with "B" if they form in the Bay of Bengal.

The Naval Research Laboratory's Marine Meteorology Division also uses the "Q" suffix to designate invests which form in the South Atlantic Ocean, [3] [4] even though it is not recognized as an official tropical cyclone basin by the World Meteorological Organization.

These suffix letters (with the usual exception of "L") are also used with the tropical cyclone numbers (TC numbers for short) assigned to tropical and subtropical depressions (and potential tropical cyclones) monitored by the NHC & CPHC (North Atlantic systems are usually designated by TC numbers without a suffix letter; the "L" is still used, however, by the NRL for this basin) and all tropical, subtropical, and potential tropical cyclones tracked by the JTWC. [5]

Number rotation

Numbers are rotated within the season and are re-used as necessary (the next invest after 99 would be numbered 90). In contrast, TC numbers start each year/season with 01 and run upwards, usually up to 30 in NHC and CPHC-monitored basins. [6] The hard-coded limit imposed by the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System is 49. TC numbers assigned to proper cyclones (tropical, subtropical, and potential tropical) are not recycled until the following year/season. If the invest system develops into a (sub)tropical cyclone, it is reclassified as the next name/number on the list. This is a TC number if evolving into a depression or JTWC cyclone; or a name if evolving quickly into a tropical or subtropical storm, bypassing the depression stage). The NHC also numbers cyclones based on previous seasons.

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tropical cyclone naming</span> Tables of names for tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclones and subtropical cyclones are named by various warning centers to simplify communication between forecasters and the general public regarding forecasts, watches and warnings. The names are intended to reduce confusion in the event of concurrent storms in the same basin. Once storms develop sustained wind speeds of more than 33 knots, names are generally assigned to them from predetermined lists, depending on the basin in which they originate. Some tropical depressions are named in the Western Pacific, while tropical cyclones must contain a significant amount of gale-force winds before they are named in the Southern Hemisphere.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Central Pacific Hurricane Center</span>

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) of the United States National Weather Service is the official body responsible for tracking and issuing tropical cyclone warnings, watches, advisories, discussions, and statements for the Central Pacific region: from the equator northward, 140°W–180°W, most significantly for Hawai‘i. It is the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) for tropical cyclones in this region, and in this capacity is known as RSMC Honolulu.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Joint Typhoon Warning Center</span> Joint United States Navy – United States Air Force command

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is a joint United States Navy – United States Air Force command in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. The JTWC is responsible for the issuing of tropical cyclone warnings in the North-West Pacific Ocean, South Pacific Ocean, and Indian Ocean for all branches of the U.S. Department of Defense and other U.S. government agencies. Their warnings are intended primarily for the protection of US military ships and aircraft, as well as military installations jointly operated with other countries around the world.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Pacific hurricane</span> Mature tropical cyclone that develops within the eastern and central Pacific Ocean

A Pacific hurricane is a tropical cyclone that develops within the northeastern and central Pacific Ocean to the east of 180°W, north of the equator. For tropical cyclone warning purposes, the northern Pacific is divided into three regions: the eastern, central, and western, while the southern Pacific is divided into 2 sections, the Australian region and the southern Pacific basin between 160°E and 120°W. Identical phenomena in the western north Pacific are called typhoons. This separation between the two basins has a practical convenience, however, as tropical cyclones rarely form in the central north Pacific due to high vertical wind shear, and few cross the dateline.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tropical cyclone scales</span> Scales of the intensity of tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclones are ranked on one of five tropical cyclone intensity scales, according to their maximum sustained winds and which tropical cyclone basins they are located in. Only a few scales of classifications are used officially by the meteorological agencies monitoring the tropical cyclones, but other scales also exist, such as accumulated cyclone energy, the Power Dissipation Index, the Integrated Kinetic Energy Index, and the Hurricane Severity Index.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre</span>

A Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) is responsible for the distribution of information, advisories, and warnings regarding the specific program they have a part of, agreed by consensus at the World Meteorological Organization as part of the World Weather Watch.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tropical cyclone basins</span> Areas of tropical cyclone formation

Traditionally, areas of tropical cyclone formation are divided into seven basins. These include the north Atlantic Ocean, the eastern and western parts of the northern Pacific Ocean, the southwestern Pacific, the southwestern and southeastern Indian Oceans, and the northern Indian Ocean. The western Pacific is the most active and the north Indian the least active. An average of 86 tropical cyclones of tropical storm intensity form annually worldwide, with 47 reaching hurricane/typhoon strength, and 20 becoming intense tropical cyclones, super typhoons, or major hurricanes.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Hurricane Ekeka</span> Category 3 Pacific hurricane in 1992

Hurricane Ekeka was the most intense off-season tropical cyclone on record in the northeastern Pacific basin. The first storm of the 1992 Pacific hurricane season, Ekeka developed on January 28 well to the south of Hawaii. It gradually intensified to reach major hurricane status on February 2, although it subsequently began to weaken due to unfavorable high wind shear. It crossed the International Date Line as a weakened tropical storm, and shortly thereafter degraded to tropical depression status. Ekeka continued westward, passing through the Marshall Islands and later over Chuuk State, before dissipating on February 9 about 310 miles (500 km) off the north coast of Papua New Guinea. The storm did not cause any significant damage or deaths.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1990–91 Australian region cyclone season</span>

The 1990–91 Australian region cyclone season was a slightly below average cyclone season, with ten tropical cyclones occurring within the region between 90°E and 160°E. The season officially ran from November 1, 1990, to April 30, 1991, with the first disturbance of the season forming on 10 December and the last disturbance moving out of the region during 11 May. Six people were killed by Cyclone Joy when it made landfall on Australia. During the season, tropical cyclones were monitored by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, who ran Tropical Cyclone Warning Centers (TCWC) in Perth, Darwin, and Brisbane. The United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and Papua New Guinea National Weather Service also monitored systems within the basin during the season. The JTWC designated systems with a number and either a S or a P suffix depending on which side of 135E. The Bureau of Meteorology and Papua New Guinea national Weather Service both used the Australian Tropical Cyclone Intensity Scale, and estimated windspeeds over a ten-minute period, while the JTWC estimated sustained winds over a one-minute period and are comparable to the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tropical cyclones in 2006</span>

Throughout 2006, 133 tropical cyclones formed in seven bodies of water known as tropical cyclone basins. Of these, 80 have been named, including two tropical cyclones in the South Atlantic Ocean, and a tropical cyclone in the Mediterranean Sea, by various weather agencies when they attained maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h (40 mph). The strongest storms of the year were Typhoon Yagi in the Western Pacific, and Cyclone Glenda of the Australian region. The deadliest and costliest storms of the year were a series of five typhoons that struck the Philippines and China; Chanchu, Bilis, Saomai, Xangsane, and Durian, with most of the damage being caused by Durian of November. So far, 27 Category 3 tropical cyclones formed, including five Category 5 tropical cyclones in the year. The accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index for the 2006, as calculated by Colorado State University was 761 units.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Glossary of tropical cyclone terms</span>

The following is a glossary of tropical cyclone terms.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System</span> Software used to predict and forecast tropical cyclogenesis and to track tropical cyclones

The Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF) is a piece of software originally developed to run on a personal computer for the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in 1988, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in 1990. ATCF remains the main piece of forecasting software used for the United States Government, including the JTWC, NHC, and Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Other tropical cyclone centers in Australia and Canada developed similar software in the 1990s. The data files with ATCF lie within three decks, known as the a-, b-, and f-decks. The a-decks include forecast information, the b-decks contain a history of center fixes at synoptic hours, and the f-decks include the various fixes made by various analysis center at various times. In the years since its introduction, it has been adapted to Unix and Linux platforms.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Hurricane Genevieve (2014)</span> Pacific hurricane and typhoon in 2014

Hurricane Genevieve, also referred to as Typhoon Genevieve, was the first tropical cyclone to track across all three northern Pacific basins since Hurricane Dora in 1999. Genevieve developed from a tropical wave into the eighth tropical storm of the 2014 Pacific hurricane season well east-southeast of Hawaii on July 25. However, increased vertical wind shear caused it to weaken into a tropical depression by the following day and degenerate into a remnant low on July 28. Late on July 29, the system regenerated into a tropical depression, but it weakened into a remnant low again on July 31, owing to vertical wind shear and dry air.

During 1994, tropical cyclones formed within seven different tropical cyclone basins, located within various parts of the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans. During the year, a total of 124 systems formed with 91 of these developing further and were named by the responsible warning centre. The strongest tropical cyclone of the year was Cyclone Geralda, which was estimated to have a minimum barometric pressure of 905 hPa (26.72 inHg). The deadliest tropical cyclone was Typhoon Fred, which caused 1,248 fatalities in China, while the costliest was Tropical Storm Sharon, which caused an estimated $5.27 billion USD in damage after striking Hong Kong, China and the Philippines. Five Category 5 tropical cyclones formed in 1994. The accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index for the 1994, as calculated by Colorado State University was 1019 units.

During 1991, tropical cyclones formed within seven different tropical cyclone basins, located within various parts of the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans. During the year, a total of 100 systems formed with 75 of these developing further and were named by the responsible warning centre. The strongest tropical cyclone of the year was Typhoon Yuri, which was estimated to have a minimum barometric pressure of 895 hPa (26.43 inHg). The deadliest tropical cyclone was Cyclone BOB 01, which caused 138,866 fatalities in Bangladesh, Northeastern India, Myanmar, Yunnan, while the costliest was Typhoon Mireille, which caused an estimated $10 billion USD in damage after striking Japan. Four Category 5 tropical cyclones formed in 1991.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tropical cyclones in 2022</span>

During 2022, tropical cyclones formed in seven major bodies of water, commonly known as tropical cyclone basins. Tropical cyclones were named by various weather agencies when they attained maximum sustained winds of 35 knots. During the year, 133 systems formed, of which 87 were named. The strongest storm to form was Typhoon Nanmadol, with minimum pressure of 910 hPa (26.87 inHg). The deadliest tropical cyclone was Tropical Storm Megi, which caused 214 fatalities in the Philippines, while the costliest was Hurricane Ian, which had an estimated damage total of at least $113.1 billion after affecting Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela, Colombia, the western part of the Greater Antilles and Southeast United States. Throughout 2022, eighteen major tropical cyclones formed, including three Category 5 tropical cyclones Saffir–Simpson scale (SSHWS) during the year. The accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index for the 2022, as calculated by Colorado State University (CSU) was 559.6 units overall.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tropical cyclones in 2024</span> Tropical cyclones in 2024 worldwide

In 2024, tropical cyclones will form in seven major bodies of water, commonly known as tropical cyclone basins. Tropical cyclones will be named by various weather agencies when they attain maximum sustained winds of 35 knots. So far, twenty systems have formed, with twelve of them being named. The most intense storm of the year so far is Djoungou, with a minimum pressure of 922 hPa (27.23 inHg). Among this year's systems, so far, two became a major tropical cyclone, with no tropical cyclones intensifying into Category 5 tropical cyclones on the Saffir–Simpson scale (SSHWS). The accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index for the 2024 so far, as calculated by Colorado State University (CSU) is 89.1 units overall.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2021–22 South Pacific cyclone season</span> Cyclone season in the South Pacific Ocean

The 2021–22 South Pacific cyclone season was a near average tropical cyclone season within the South Pacific Ocean to the east of 160°E. The season officially started from November 1, 2021, and officially ended on April 30, 2022, however a tropical cyclone could form at any time between July 1, 2021, and June 30, 2022, and would count towards the season total. During the season, tropical cyclones will be officially monitored by the Fiji Meteorological Service, Australian Bureau of Meteorology and New Zealand's MetService. The United States Armed Forces through the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) will also monitor the basin and issue unofficial warnings for American interests. The FMS attaches a number and an F suffix to tropical disturbances that form in or move into the basin while the JTWC designates significant tropical cyclones with a number and a P suffix. The BoM, FMS and MetService all use the Australian Tropical Cyclone Intensity Scale and estimate windspeeds over a period of ten minutes, while the JTWC estimated sustained winds over a 1-minute period, which are subsequently compared to the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale (SSHWS).

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tropical cyclones in 2023</span> Tropical cyclones in 2023 worldwide

During 2023, tropical cyclones formed in seven major bodies of water, commonly known as tropical cyclone basins. They were named by various weather agencies when they attained maximum sustained winds of 35 knots. Throughout the year, a total of 115 systems formed, with 79 of them being named. The most intense storm this year was Typhoon Mawar, which had a minimum pressure of 900 hPa (26.58 inHg). The deadliest tropical cyclone of the year was Storm Daniel, which killed at least 10,028 people in Libya, Greece, Turkey, and Bulgaria. Meanwhile, the costliest tropical cyclone was Typhoon Doksuri which caused at least US$28.4 billion worth of damage in China, the Philippines and Taiwan, becoming the costliest on record outside the Atlantic Ocean basin. Among this year's systems, thirty became major tropical cyclones, of which nine intensified into Category 5 tropical cyclones on the Saffir–Simpson scale (SSHWS). This year, for the first time on record, at least one such Category 5 system formed in each tropical cyclone basin: Typhoons Mawar and Bolaven in the western Pacific Ocean, Hurricanes Jova and Otis in the eastern Pacific, Hurricane Lee in the Atlantic, Cyclone Mocha in the North Indian Ocean, Cyclone Freddy in the southwest Indian Ocean, Cyclone Ilsa in the Australian region, and Cyclone Kevin in the South Pacific. The accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index for the 2023, as calculated by Colorado State University (CSU) was 857.4 units overall.

References

  1. Franklin, James (July 31, 2014). "Investing for Meteorologists". Miami, Florida: United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service's National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 1 August 2014.
  2. "Glossary of NHC Terms". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2008-08-17.
  3. United States Naval Research LaboratoryMonterey, Marine Meteorology Division. "Best Track/Objective Aid/Wind Radii Format" . Retrieved October 15, 2018.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  4. "Rare Tropical Cyclone Forms Off Brazil". Earthweek . Retrieved 6 June 2018.
  5. Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (May 2017). National Hurricane Operations Plan (PDF) (Report). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration . Retrieved October 14, 2018.
  6. Michael J. Brennan, National Hurricane Center (2017-07-03). "Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) Data Files / Text Files". National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration . Retrieved October 14, 2018.