Manitoba general election, 2016

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Manitoba general election, 2016
Flag of Manitoba.svg
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57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba
29 seats needed for a majority
Turnout57.43%
 First partySecond party
  Brian Pallister 2014.jpg Greg Selinger cropped.jpg
Leader Brian Pallister Greg Selinger
Party Progressive Conservative New Democratic
Leader since July 30, 2012 October 17, 2009
Leader's seat Fort Whyte St. Boniface
Last election19 seats, 43.71%37 seats, 46.16%
Seats before1935
Seats won4014
Seat changeIncrease2.svg21Decrease2.svg21
Popular vote232,215112,748
Percentage53.10%25.78%
SwingIncrease2.svg9.39%Decrease2.svg20.38%
 Third partyFourth party
  Canadianbokhari.png James Beddome 2011 - 01.jpg
Leader Rana Bokhari James Beddome
Party Liberal Green
Leader since October 26, 2013 November 15, 2014
Leader's seatran in Fort Rouge (lost)ran in Fort Garry-Riverview (lost)
Last election1 seat, 7.52%0 seats, 2.52%
Seats before10
Seats won30
Seat changeIncrease2.svg2Steady2.svg
Popular vote62,97322,188
Percentage14.40%5.07%
SwingIncrease2.svg6.88%Increase2.svg2.62%
Manitoba Election Map 2016.svg
Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding.
Premier before election

Greg Selinger
New Democratic

Premier-designate

Brian Pallister
Progressive Conservative

The 41st general election of Manitoba was held on April 19, 2016 to elect members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba, Canada. [1] The New Democratic Party of Manitoba, led by Greg Selinger, were defeated by the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba led by Brian Pallister, ending nearly 17 years of NDP government. The Tories won 40 seats, one of the largest majority governments in Manitoba history, the other one was in 1915 when Liberals also won 40 seats. [2]

Legislative Assembly of Manitoba form the Legislature of Manitoba, Canada

The Legislative Assembly of Manitoba and the Queen of Canada in Right of Manitoba, represented by the Lieutenant Governor of Manitoba form the legislature of the Canadian province of Manitoba. Fifty-seven members are elected to this assembly in provincial general elections, all in single-member constituencies with first-past-the-post voting. The Manitoba Legislative Building is located in central Winnipeg, at the meeting point of the Wolseley and Fort Rouge constituencies.

New Democratic Party of Manitoba political party

The New Democratic Party of Manitoba is a social-democratic political party in Manitoba, Canada. It is the provincial wing of the federal New Democratic Party of Canada, and is a successor to the Manitoba Co-operative Commonwealth Federation. It is currently the opposition party in Manitoba.

Greg Selinger former Winnipeg city councilor, current Manitoba MLA, former Manitoba Minister of Finance, currently running for leadership of the Manitoba NDP

Gregory Francis "Greg" Selinger is a Canadian former politician who served as the 21st Premier of Manitoba from 2009 until 2016, leading an NDP government. From 1999 to 2009 he was the Minister of Finance in the government of his immediate predecessor, Gary Doer. Selinger was the member of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba for St. Boniface from 1999 until his resignation in early 2018. His party was defeated by Brian Pallister and the Progressive Conservatives in the 2016 Manitoba general election.

Contents

The election also removed one of the two New Democratic governments in the country, the other being formed by the Alberta New Democratic Party.

Alberta New Democratic Party centre-left political party in Alberta

The Alberta New Democratic Party, commonly shortened to Alberta's NDP, is a social-democratic political party in Alberta, Canada. It is the provincial Alberta affiliate of the federal New Democratic Party of Canada, and the successor to the Alberta section of the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation and the even earlier Alberta wing of the Canadian Labour Party and the United Farmers of Alberta. From the mid-1980s to 2004, the party abbreviated its name as the "New Democrats" (ND).

Date

Under the Manitoba Elections Act, the general election is to be held on the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year, following the previous election. [3] As the last election was held in 2011, that date would be October 6, 2015. However, the act also provides that if, as of January 1 of the election year, the election period would overlap with a federal election period, the provincial election is to be postponed until the third Tuesday of the following April. [4] Under the federal fixed-term act, on January 1, 2015, the next federal election was tentatively scheduled for October 19, 2015, overlapping election periods by approximately three weeks. Thus the next Manitoba election was scheduled for April 19, 2016. The Lieutenant Governor retains the power to dissolve the Legislative Assembly early. [5] The legislature was dissolved and writs or the election were dropped on March 16, 2016. [6]

Lieutenant Governor of Manitoba

The Lieutenant Governor of Manitoba is the viceregal representative in Manitoba of the Canadian monarch, Queen Elizabeth II, who operates distinctly within the province but is also shared equally with the ten other jurisdictions of Canada, as well as the other Commonwealth realms and any subdivisions thereof, and resides predominantly in her oldest realm, the United Kingdom. The Lieutenant Governor of Manitoba is appointed in the same manner as the other provincial viceroys in Canada and is similarly tasked with carrying out most of the monarch's constitutional and ceremonial duties. The present, and 25th, Lieutenant Governor of Manitoba is Janice Filmon, who has served in the role since 19 June 2015.

Campaign

The election was relatively unique within Canadian politics, in that opinion polling indicated that most voters were basing their decision on the local candidate in their riding or the party platform, not the performance of the leader. In most Canadian elections, such as the 2016 Saskatchewan election, the behaviour of the party leader was a stronger motivator for constituents when voting; [7] in the context of the Manitoba election, however, polling found that none of the three main party leaders was particularly well-liked or trusted by the electorate. [8] Although Pallister fared best with 33 per cent support in public opinion polling on the question of preferred premier, even he finished only one point ahead of "none of the above" at 32 per cent. [8]

The campaigns of all three parties were based on themes of change, with even Selinger suggesting the incumbent NDP government would be able to respond to constituent concerns and change problematic policies in the leaders' debate. [7] Opinion polling during the campaign suggested a lack of enthusiasm for all party leaders, and a general desire for change. [9]

Election summary

The Tories won a near-sweep of southern and central Manitoba, and also made significant inroads in Winnipeg, taking every seat in the southern and western portions of the capital. In many cases, previously safe NDP seats either fell to the Tories or saw the NDP margins cut by more than half.

Summary of the April 19, 2016 Manitoba Legislature election

Manitoba Legislature Legislative Assembly and Lieutenant Governor of Manitoba

The Legislature of Manitoba is the legislature of the province of Manitoba, Canada. Today, the legislature is made of two elements: Queen of Canada in Right of Manitoba represented by the Lieutenant Governor of Manitoba, and the unicameral assembly called the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba. The legislature has existed since Manitoba was formed out of part of Rupert's Land in 1870.

PartyLeaderCandidatesSeatsPopular vote
2011 Dissol. 2016+/-Votes%% change
Progressive Conservative Brian Pallister 57191940+21232,21553.10+9.39
New Democratic Greg Selinger 57373514-21112,74825.78−20.38
Liberal Rana Bokhari 51113+262,97314.40+6.88
Green James Beddome 30––––22,1885.07+2.55
Manitoba Gary Marshall 16––––4,8871.12n/a
Communist Darrell Rankin 6––––3050.07+0.03
 Independents4––––2,0320.46+0.41
 Vacant [lower-alpha 1] 2
Total221575757437,348

Summary results

↓
40143
Progressive ConservativeNew DemocraticLiberal
Elections to the 41st Manitoba Legislature – seats won/lost by party, 2011–2016
Party2011Gain from (loss to)2016
NDPPCLib
New Democratic 37(21)(2)14
Progressive Conservative 192140
Liberal 123
Total5723(21)(2)57
Elections to the 41st Manitoba Legislature – top 5 candidates from each riding, by party
PartyCandidates1st2nd3rd4th5th
Progressive Conservative 5740116––
New Democratic 571428123–
Liberal 51311316–
Green 30–45201
Manitoba 16–2157
Independent 4–1–3–
Party candidates in 2nd place
Party in 1st placeParty in 2nd placeTotal
PCNDPLibGrnMBInd
Progressive Conservative –26832140
New Democratic 10–31–14
Liberal 12––––3
Total11281142157
Principal races, according to 1st and 2nd-place results
PartiesSeats
█  Progressive Conservative █  New Democratic 36
█  Progressive Conservative █  Liberal 9
█  Progressive Conservative █  Green 3
█  Progressive Conservative █  Manitoba 2
█  Progressive Conservative █  Independent 1
█  New Democratic █  Liberal 5
█  New Democratic █  Green 1
Total57

Incumbents not contesting their seats

Retiring incumbents
PartyRidingIncumbent
NDP
Assiniboia Jim Rondeau [11]
Dauphin Stan Struthers [12]
Dawson Trail Ron Lemieux
Fort Rouge Jennifer Howard
Radisson Bidhu Jha [13]
St. Johns Gord Mackintosh
St. Vital Nancy Allan [14]
Seine River Theresa Oswald
Transcona Daryl Reid
Progressive Conservative
Agassiz Stu Briese [15]
Riding Mountain Leanne Rowat [15]
River East Bonnie Mitchelson [16]

Opinion polls

NDP Progressive Conservative Liberal Green MB 2011-2016.png
Polling FirmLast Date of PollingLink NDP PC Liberal Green Other
Insights West April 18, 2016 HTML 28531071
Insightrix ResearchApril 18, 2016 HTML 22491991
Forum Research April 17, 2016 PDF 2152189
Mainstreet Research April 14, 2016 HTML 2655119
Insights West April 7, 2016 HTML 26491771
Insightrix ResearchApril 7, 2016 HTML 2449225
Mainstreet Research April 5, 2016 HTML 2450179
Probe Research IncApril 4, 2016 PDF 2846206
Mainstreet Research March 29, 2016 HTML 2345247
Mainstreet Research March 19, 2016 HTML 2444247
Forum Research March 13, 2016 PDF 22462381
Mainstreet Research March 12, 2016 HTML 2743247
Mainstreet Research February 20, 2016 HTML 2150236
Mainstreet Research February 11, 2016 HTML 2151207
Mainstreet Research January 25, 2016 HTML 2052209
Mainstreet Research January 9, 2016 HTML 2344276
Insightrix ResearchDecember 22, 2015 HTML 19393651
Probe Research IncDecember 15, 2015 PDF 2243296
Probe Research IncSeptember 23, 2015 PDF 2545245
Probe Research IncJune 27, 2015 PDF 2946195
Probe Research IncApril 5, 2015 PDF 2944207
Probe Research IncDecember 12, 2014 HTML 2648197
Mainstreet Research November 3, 2014 HTML 275320
Probe Research IncOctober 1, 2014 HTML 3042208
Probe Research IncJune 19, 2014 HTML 3245167
Probe Research IncMarch 28, 2014 HTML 2846233
Insightrix ResearchFebruary 7, 2014 HTML 2449189
Probe Research IncDecember 27, 2013 PDF 2648206
Probe Research IncSeptember 28, 2013 HTML 2943208
Probe Research IncJune 26, 2013 PDF 28461710
Probe Research IncApril 14, 2013 PDF 3542158
Probe Research IncDecember 14, 2012 PDF 3943117
Probe Research IncOctober 14, 2012 PDF 4538116
Probe Research IncJune 29, 2012 PDF 4440133
Probe Research IncApril 4, 2012 PDF 4045105
2011 election October 4, 201146.243.77.52.50.1

Candidates by riding

Northern Manitoba

Electoral DistrictCandidates Incumbent
 NDP PC Liberal GreenOther
Flin Flon Tom Lindsey
1,106		Angela Enright
954		Leslie Beck
948		 Clarence Pettersen (Ind.)
359		Clarence Pettersen
Kewatinook Eric Robinson
1,207		Edna Nabess
375		 Judy Klassen
1,565		Eric Robinson
Swan River Ron Kostyshyn
2,408		 Rick Wowchuk
4,081		Shayne Lynxleg
483		Dan Soprovich
296		Ron Kostyshyn
The Pas Amanda Lathlin
1,976		Doug Lauvstad
1,765		Tyler Duncan
586		Patrick Wood
217		Amanda Lathlin
Thompson Steve Ashton
1,527		 Kelly Bindle
1,712		Inez Vystrcil-Spence
638		Steve Ashton

Westman/Parkland

Electoral DistrictCandidates Incumbent
 NDP PC Liberal GreenOther
Agassiz Courtney Lucas
450		 Eileen Clarke
5,228		Robert Smith
409		Damian Dempsey (Ind.)
910		 Stu Briese
Arthur-Virden Lorne Topolniski
600		 Doyle Piwniuk
6,006		Frank Godon (Manitoba)
846		Doyle Piwniuk
Brandon East Drew Caldwell
2,534		 Len Isleifson
3,669		Vanessa Hamilton
830		Drew Caldwell
Brandon West Linda Ross
1,884		 Reg Helwer
5,624		William Moore
631		Reg Helwer
Dauphin Darcy Scheller
1,899		 Brad Michaleski
4,795		Garry Gurke
505		Kate Storey
595		Darrell Inkster (Manitoba)
168		 Stan Struthers
Riding Mountain Béla Gyarmati
601		 Greg Nesbitt
5,311		Jordan Fleury
1,028		Mark Olenick
779		 Leanne Rowat
Spruce Woods Amanda Chmelyk
665		 Cliff Cullen
5,210		Jaron Hart
512		Malcolm McKellar (Manitoba)
738		Cliff Cullen

Central Manitoba

Electoral DistrictCandidates Incumbent
 NDP PC Liberal GreenOther
Emerson Alanna Jones
432		 Cliff Graydon
4,943		Loren Braul
1,423		Cliff Graydon
Gimli Armand Bélanger
2,579		 Jeff Wharton
5,614		Dwight Harfield
843		Ed Paquette (Manitoba)
239		vacant
Interlake Tom Nevakshonoff
1,428		 Derek Johnson
3,685		Jamal Abas
2,068		Tom Nevakshonoff
Lakeside Matt Austman
1,369		 Ralph Eichler
6,077		Ralph Eichler
Midland Jacqueline Theroux
714		 Blaine Pedersen
6,168		Julia Sisler
523		Stacey O’Neill
797		Blaine Pedersen
Morden-Winkler Elizabeth Lynch
215		 Cameron Friesen
6,598		Benjamin Bawdon
279		Mike Urichuk
667		Cameron Friesen
Morris Mohamed Alli
840		 Shannon Martin
6,980		John Falk
1,430		Shannon Martin
Portage la Prairie Alex MacDonald
697		 Ian Wishart
4,635		Stephen Prince
1,238		Ian Wishart

Eastman

Electoral DistrictCandidates Incumbent
 NDP PC Liberal GreenOther
Dawson Trail Roxane Dupuis
1,678		 Bob Lagassé
4,430		Terry Hayward
1,652		David Sutherland (Manitoba)
516		 Ron Lemieux
Lac du Bonnet Wendy Sol
1,647		 Wayne Ewasko
5,666		Wayne Ewasko
La Verendrye Echo Asher
705		 Dennis Smook
5,262		Bill Paulishyn
696		Janine Gibson
724		Dennis Smook
Steinbach Kathleen McCallum
387		 Kelvin Goertzen
6,982		Dakota Young-Brown
461		Kelvin Goertzen
St. Paul Andrew Podolecki
1,757		 Ron Schuler
7,091		Pete Sanderson
1,055		Ron Schuler
Selkirk Greg Dewar
2,366		 Alan Lagimodiere
4,686		Stefan Jones
1,390		Greg Dewar

Northwest Winnipeg

Electoral DistrictCandidates Incumbent
 NDP PC Liberal GreenOther
Burrows Melanie Wight
1,775		Rae Wagner
1,014		 Cindy Lamoureux
2,641		Garrett Bodnaryk
216		Tony Petrowski (Communist)
28		Melanie Wight
Kildonan Dave Chomiak
3,065		 Nic Curry
3,694		Navdeep Khangura
974		Steven Stairs
456		Gary Marshall (Manitoba)
133		Dave Chomiak
Point Douglas Kevin Chief
2,839		Marsha Street
811		Althea Guiboche
956		Alberteen Spence
247		Frank Komarniski (Communist)
58		Kevin Chief
St. Johns Nahanni Fontaine
2,358		Barbara Judt
1,869		Noel Bernier
1,465		Elizabeth Puchailo
671		 Gord Mackintosh
The Maples Mohinder Saran
2,832		Kaur Sidhu
2,705		Harbans Singh Brar
1,695		John Redekopp
582		Mohinder Saran
Tyndall Park Ted Marcelino
2,139		Naseer Warraich
1,306		Aida Champagne
1,656		Shane Neustaeter
391
Ted Marcelino

Northeast Winnipeg

Electoral DistrictCandidates Incumbent
 NDP PC Liberal GreenOther
Concordia Matt Wiebe
2,761		Andrew Frank
2,483		Donovan Martin
642		Terry Scott (Manitoba)
254		Matt Wiebe
Elmwood Jim Maloway
2,993		Sarah Langevin
2,886		Albert Ratt (Manitoba)
579		Jim Maloway
Radisson Preet Singh
2,945		 James Teitsma
4,635		Scott Newman
1,593		 Bidhu Jha
River East Jody Gillis
2,435		 Cathy Cox
6,154		Piero Scaramuzzi
776		 Bonnie Mitchelson
Rossmere Erna Braun
3,389		 Andrew Micklefield
5,303		Malli Aulakh
838		William Sullivan (Manitoba)
427		Erna Braun
St. Boniface Greg Selinger
3,624		Mamadou Ka
2,211		Alain Landry
1,663		Signe Knutson
1,048		Greg Selinger
Transcona Barb Burkowski
2,281		 Blair Yakimoski
3,948		Chad Panting
1,465		 Darrell Rankin (Communist)
68
Ajit Kumar (Manitoba)
233		 Daryl Reid

West Winnipeg

Electoral DistrictCandidates Incumbent
 NDP PC Liberal GreenOther
Assiniboia Joseph McKellep
2,196		 Steven Fletcher
3,450		Ian McCausland
1,631		Ileana Ohlsson
580		 Jim Rondeau
Charleswood Janna Barkman
1,168		 Myrna Driedger
5,298		Paul Brault
1,187		Kevin Nichols
1,080		Myrna Driedger
Kirkfield Park Sharon Blady
3,075		 Scott Fielding
5,457		Kelly Nord
889		Lisa Omand
784		Sharon Blady
St. James Deanne Crothers
2,723		 Scott Johnston
3,532		Michelle Finley
1,150		Jeff Buhse
850		Brad Gross (Manitoba)
137		Deanne Crothers
Tuxedo Zach Fleisher
1,312		 Heather Stefanson
4,986		Michael Lazar
1,251		Bob Krul
976		Heather Stefanson

Central Winnipeg

Electoral DistrictCandidates Incumbent
 NDP PC Liberal GreenOther
Fort Garry-Riverview James Allum
3,450		Jeannette Montufar
3,149		Johanna Wood
807		 James Beddome
1,711		James Allum
Fort Rouge Wab Kinew
3,360		Audrey Gordon
2751		 Rana Bokhari
1,792		Grant Sharp
983		Matthew Ostrove (Manitoba)
175
Paula Ducharme (Communist)
47		 Jennifer Howard
Logan Flor Marcelino
2,020		Allie Szarkiewicz
997		Peter Koroma
1,457		Jitendradas Loves-Life
397		Joe Chan (Manitoba)
185
Cheryl-Anne Carr (Communist)
63		Flor Marcelino
Minto Andrew Swan
2,954		Belinda Squance
1,016		Demetre Balaktsis
723		Martha Jo Willard
410		Andrew Taylor (Communist)
41
Virgil Gil (Manitoba)
51
Don Woodstock (Ind)
589		Andrew Swan
River Heights Shafagh Daneshfar
591		Tracey Maconachie
3,485		 Jon Gerrard
5,230		Michael Cardillo
771		Jon Gerrard
Wolseley Rob Altemeyer
3,037		Raquel Dancho
945		Shandi Strong
653		David Nickarz
2,645		Wayne Sturby (Manitoba)
79		Rob Altemeyer

South Winnipeg

Electoral DistrictCandidates Incumbent
 NDP PC Liberal GreenOther
Fort Richmond Kerri Irvin-Ross
2,274		 Sarah Guillemard
2,879		Kyra Wilson
814		Cameron Proulx
540		Kerri Irvin-Ross
Fort Whyte George Wong
1,718		 Brian Pallister
6,775		Peter Bastians
1,205		Carli Runions
731		Daryl Newis (Manitoba)
127		Brian Pallister
Riel Christine Melnick
3,053		 Rochelle Squires
5,024		Neil Johnston
1,627		Christine Melnick
Seine River Lise Pinkos
2,343		 Janice Morley-Lecomte
5,396		Peter Chura
2,388		 Theresa Oswald
Southdale Dashi Zargani
2,460		 Andrew Smith
6,663		Ryan Colyer
1,318		vacant
St. Norbert Dave Gaudreau
3,062		 Jon Reyes
4,673		James Bloomfield
1,251		Narinder Kaur Johar
174		Dave Gaudreau
St. Vital Jamie Moses
2,831		 Colleen Mayer
3,229		Bryan Van Wilgenburg
1,296		Kelly Whelan-Enns
791		 Nancy Allan

Notes

  1. ↑ Erin Selby (Southdale) and Peter Bjornson (Gimli) resigned their seats in 2015. [10] No by-elections were called and their seats remained vacant.

Related Research Articles

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The New Democratic Party of Manitoba leadership election of 2017 was called as a result of the resignation of Manitoba NDP leader Greg Selinger following his government's defeat in the April 19, 2016 Manitoba general election.

Bernadette Smith is a Canadian First Nations politician, who was elected to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba in a by-election on June 13, 2017. She represents the electoral district of Point Douglas as a member of the Manitoba New Democratic Party.

References

  1. ↑ Voting in a Manitoba Provincial Election Archived February 22, 2012, at the Wayback Machine .. Retrieved June 24, 2012.
  2. ↑ "Brian Pallister's PCs win majority government in Manitoba". CBC News. 2016-04-19.
  3. ↑ Elections Act, sec. 49.1(2).
  4. ↑ Elections Act, sec. 49.1(3).
  5. ↑ Elections Act, sec. 49.1(1).
  6. ↑ http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/choices-are-clear-selinger-makes-april-19-manitoba-election-official-1.2819225
  7. 1 2 "Manitoba election results 2016". Global News. 19 April 2016. Retrieved 19 April 2016.
  8. 1 2 "Voters don't trust leaders, but Pallister fares better than rivals: poll". Winnipeg Free Press , April 9, 2016.
  9. ↑ "Manitobans go to the polls in provincial election". CBC News. 19 April 2016. Retrieved 19 April 2016.
  10. ↑ http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/opinion/columnists/Selingers-shuffle-making-the-best-of-a-bad-situation--301769811.html
  11. ↑ "Demoted Manitoba politician, Jim Rondeau, to leave politics". Global News. April 13, 2015.
  12. ↑ "Former Manitoba cabinet minister not running". Global News. May 13, 2015.
  13. ↑ CBC News Manitoba, 24-11-2015
  14. ↑ http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/Longtime-NDP-MLA-Nancy-Allan-announces-retirement-305366321.html
  15. 1 2 "MLA Leanne Rowat will not seek reelection". Winnipeg Free Press. September 11, 2014.
  16. ↑ "River East MLA Bonnie Mitchelson Announces Retirement". CJOB. October 17, 2014.
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