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The assessment of risk factors for genocide is an upstream mechanism for genocide prevention. The goal is to apply an assessment of risk factors to improve the predictive capability of the international community before the killing begins, and prevent it. There may be many warning signs that a country may be leaning in the direction of a future genocide. If signs are presented, the international community takes notes of them and watches over the countries that have a higher risk. Many different scholars, and international groups, have come up with different factors that they think should be considered while examining whether a nation is at risk or not. One predominant scholar in the field James Waller came up with his own four categories of risk factors: governance, conflict history, economic conditions, and social fragmentation. [1]
The regime type of the government is an indicator on whether the nation is in danger of genocide or not. An anocracy and a transitional government are the types that have the most danger while a full monarchy is the most stable. The nation also has a higher risk if there is state legitimacy deficit, which would include high corruption, disregard for constitutional norms, or mass protests. If a state structure is weak and provides poor basic services for the citizens, restricted the rule of law, or has a lack of civilian protection, it also creates a higher risk and could become unstable. If there is identity-based polar factionalism or systematic state-led discrimination through exclusionary ideology, or political contentious along identity line this can create a divide of people in the nation creating different ranks and violence amongst the civilians.
A state is more likely to experience genocide or mass atrocity if it has a history of identity-related tensions, otherwise known as a tendency to other, or if it has committed prior genocides/politicides, this is because a government may already have the previous weapons, strategies, and power since the last genocide. It is also aware of how much damage it can do once more if it has evaded repercussions for human rights violations in the past. Also, if a state has had a record of serious violations of international human rights laws, the population of the country is more desensitised to the violence and it may also be less aware of what is happening around it. Other conflict histories that put a state at risk are past cultural traumas that have hurt the core social identity of the state, or if the people have been known to have a legacy of group grievances or vengeance. The more conflict a country has had in the past can make its population more unstable and more at risk for genocide.
States with low levels of economic development are more likely to have problems because it creates a low opportunity cost for mass violence, as the citizens' lives aren't valued as much as in an economy that has high levels. States that practice economic discrimination, make it so one group of people have the most economic opportunity, forcing the other group to be unemployed or if they have horizontal economic inequalities, which is when a country's economy is based on a small number of opportunities, and products. Those conditions with the addition of high unemployment rates, foreign debt, and informal economies such as growing black markets a country is at risk of its economic conditions playing into their risk factors for Genocide.
Social fragmentation can by five major subcategories; identity-based social divisions, demographic pressures, unequal access to basic goods and services, gender inequalities, and political instability. Identity-based social divisions, constitute of differential access to power, wealth, statues, and resources, meaning that certain people have more access to what the need to live than others, or when a state practices hate speech, like RTLMC in Rwanda. Demographic pressures can be experienced in a state has a high population density, massive movements of refugees or internal displaced peoples, or a male youth bulge, which means that there is a high male population with nothing really to do. Unequal access to basic goods and services, which can be shown by high infant mortality rates, as mothers and children would not be getting the proper care that they needed to grow and be healthy. Gender inequalities are shown in rate of violence against women, as these are normally an indicator of how the country views their women, and if it is a low rate they normally see them more as equals. Political instability can be revealed by hurtful regime changes, threats of armed conflict, proportions of populations that are armed, and where the country is in the world, and if its neighboring countries have conflict it has been known to spill into the neighboring regions.
If a nation has one or more of these risk factors it does not mean that they will have a genocide but they are simply additive factors that when put together can be used to help predict and defuse a tense, or dangerous, situation. There is no guarantee or formula that allows you to predict the future but instead thing to help us learn from the past to help protect the future.
The United Nations have their list of 14 risk factors for atrocity crimes with multiple indicators for each factor. These risk factors include: [2]
Common risk factors:
Risk factors specific to each international crime:
For genocide:
For crimes against humanity:
For war crimes:
The UN is different in that it separates specific factors that lead to different crimes. Such that "serious threats to humanitarian or peacekeeping operators" will lead to war crimes while "Intergroup tensions or patterns of discrimination against protected groups" (under Article 2 of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide) is a risk factor to genocide. These guidelines were expanded upon and published in 2014 as the booklet Framework of Analysis for Atrocity Crimes: A tool for prevention. [3]
The Fund for Peace non-profit organization, has written a conflict assessment framework manual to help "meet security challenges stemming from weak and failing states." The Conflict Assessment System Tool (CAST) has 12 pressure indicators including: [4]
Along with each pressure indicator is a list of scores indicating when that indicator is becoming a serious risk factor. A score of 0 means there is no risk at all score of 10 would be a serious problem. Also included in the CAST is a guide to assessing the capacities of the state. The capacities are leadership, military, police, judiciary and civil service.
The European Commission has come up with their own risk factors to assess the risk of a country committing mass atrocities and genocide. The eight risk factors they chose are: [5]
Each risk factor has other multiple subsections that can point to more specific events that can be seen as potential risk factors for conflict. Along with the subsections, there are examples of what possible objectives could be in order to improve that specific risk factor.
Genocide Watch, The Alliance Against Genocide published Gregory Stanton's list of ten stages of genocide, which include, [6]
These stages can be seen in every genocide that scholars have studied so far. They can be used as red flags for future genocides. The Ten Stages of Genocide model has been used by the US State Department, UN, many genocide scholars and policy makers, and teachers and museums worldwide.[ citation needed ]
In 1996 Gregory Stanton, the founding president of Genocide Watch, presented a briefing paper called The 8 Stages of Genocide at the United States Department of State. [7] In it he suggested that genocide develops in eight stages that are "predictable but not inexorable". [7] [lower-alpha 1] In 2012, Stanton added two additional stages, Discrimination and Persecution, to his model, which resulted in a ten-stage model of genocide. [6]
The stages are not linear, and usually several occur simultaneously. Stanton's model is a logical model for analyzing the processes of genocide, and for determining preventive measures that might be taken to combat or stop each process.
The Stanton paper was presented at the State Department in 1996, shortly after the Rwanda genocide, but it also analyzes the processes in the Holocaust, Khmer Rouge Cambodia, and other genocides. The preventive measures suggested are those that the United States, national governments, and U.N. could implement or influence other governments to implement.
Stage | Characteristics | Preventive measures |
---|---|---|
1. Classification | People are divided into "them and us". | "The main preventive measure at this early stage is to develop universalistic institutions that transcend... divisions." |
2. Symbolization | "When combined with hatred, symbols may be forced upon unwilling members of pariah groups..." | "To combat symbolization, hate symbols can be legally forbidden as can hate speech". |
3. Discrimination | "Law or cultural power excludes groups from full civil rights: segregation or apartheid laws, denial of voting rights". | "Pass and enforce laws prohibiting discrimination. Full citizenship and voting rights for all groups." |
4. Dehumanization | "One group denies the humanity of the other group. Members of it are equated with animals, vermin, insects, or diseases." | "Local and international leaders should condemn the use of hate speech and make it culturally unacceptable. Leaders who incite genocide should be banned from international travel and have their foreign finances frozen." |
5. Organization | "Genocide is always organized... Special army units or militias are often trained and armed..." | "The U.N. should impose arms embargoes on governments and citizens of countries involved in genocidal massacres, and create commissions to investigate violations" |
6. Polarization | "Hate groups broadcast polarizing propaganda..." | "Prevention may mean security protection for moderate leaders or assistance to human rights groups...Coups d’état by extremists should be opposed by international sanctions." |
7. Preparation | "Mass killing is planned. Victims are identified and separated out because of their ethnic or religious identity..." | "At this stage, a Genocide Emergency must be declared. Full diplomatic pressure by regional organizations must be invoked, including preparation to intervene to prevent genocide." |
8. Persecution | "Expropriation, forced displacement, ghettos, concentration camps". | "Direct assistance to victim groups, targeted sanctions against persecutors, mobilization of humanitarian assistance or intervention, protection of refugees." |
9. Extermination | "It is 'extermination' to the killers because they do not believe their victims to be fully human". | "At this stage, only rapid and overwhelming armed intervention can stop genocide. Real safe areas or refugee escape corridors should be established with heavily armed international protection." |
10. Denial | "The perpetrators... deny that they committed any crimes..." | "The response to denial is punishment by an international tribunal or national courts" |
Stanton's Ten Stage Model of the Genocidal Process is widely used in comparative genocide studies, by teachers in schools and universities, and in museums such as the Dallas Holocaust Museum. Stanton's method focuses on events and processes that lead to genocide. The organization he founded, Genocide Watch, [8] monitors events worldwide. It issues Genocide Alerts to policy makers in governments and the UN.
Other genocide scholars have focused on the cultural and political conditions that lead to genocide. Sociologist Helen Fein [9] showed that preexisting antisemitism was correlated with the percentage of Jews killed in different European countries during the Holocaust. Political scientists such as Dr. Barbara Harff [10] have identified political characteristics of states that statistically correlate with risk of genocide. They are prior genocides with impunity; political upheaval; ethnic minority rule; exclusionary ideology; autocracy; closed borders; and massive violations of human rights.
Stanton's model places the risk factors in Harff's analysis of country risks of genocide and politicide into a processual structure. Risks of political instability are characteristic of what Leo Kuper [11] called "divided societies," with deep rifts in Classification. Targeted groups of state-led discrimination are victims of Discrimination. An exclusionary ideology is central to Dehumanization. Autocratic regimes foster the Organization of hate groups. An ethnically polarized elite is characteristic of Polarization. Lack of openness to trade and other influences from outside a state's borders is characteristic of Preparation for genocide or politicide. Massive violation of human rights is evidence of Persecution. Impunity after previous genocides or politicides is evidence of Denial.
Gregory Stanton described genocide prevention in the statement, "Ultimately the best antidote to genocide is popular education and the development of social and cultural tolerance for diversity." [6]
Genocide is violence that targets individuals because of their membership of a group and aims at the destruction of a people.
Genocide denial is the attempt to deny or minimize the scale and severity of an instance of genocide. Denial is an integral part of genocide and includes the secret planning of genocide, propaganda while the genocide is going on, and destruction of evidence of mass killings. According to genocide researcher Gregory Stanton, denial "is among the surest indicators of further genocidal massacres".
Mass killing is a concept which has been proposed by genocide scholars who wish to define incidents of non-combat killing which are perpetrated by a government or a state. A mass killing is commonly defined as the killing of group members without the intention to eliminate the whole group, or otherwise the killing of large numbers of people without a clear group membership.
The Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (CPPCG), or the Genocide Convention, is an international treaty that criminalizes genocide and obligates state parties to pursue the enforcement of its prohibition. It was the first legal instrument to codify genocide as a crime, and the first human rights treaty unanimously adopted by the United Nations General Assembly, on 9 December 1948, during the third session of the United Nations General Assembly. The Convention entered into force on 12 January 1951 and has 153 state parties as of June 2024.
Gregory H. Stanton is the former research professor in Genocide Studies and Prevention at the George Mason University in Fairfax County, Virginia, United States. He is best known for his work in the area of genocide studies. He is the founder and president of Genocide Watch, the founder and director of the Cambodian Genocide Project, and the Chair of the Alliance Against Genocide. From 2007 to 2009 he was the president of the International Association of Genocide Scholars.
The Political Instability Task Force (PITF), formerly known as State Failure Task Force, is a U.S. government-sponsored research project to build a database on major domestic political conflicts leading to state failures. The study analyzed factors to denote the effectiveness of state institutions, population well-being, and found that partial democracies with low involvement in international trade and with high infant mortality are most prone to revolutions. One of the members of the task force resigned on January 20, 2017, in protest of the Trump administration, before Donald Trump was sworn in as U.S. president.
Ted Robert Gurr was an American author and professor of political science who most notably wrote about political conflict and instability. His widely translated book Why Men Rebel (1970) emphasized the importance of social psychological factors and ideology as root sources of political violence. He was Distinguished University Professor emeritus at the University of Maryland and consulted on projects he established there. He died in November 2017.
Political cleansing of a population is the elimination of categories of people in specific areas for political reasons. The means may vary and include forced migration, ethnic cleansing and population transfers.
Mass killings under communist regimes occurred through a variety of means during the 20th century, including executions, famine, deaths through forced labour, deportation, starvation, and imprisonment. Some of these events have been classified as genocides or crimes against humanity. Other terms have been used to describe these events, including classicide, democide, red holocaust, and politicide. The mass killings have been studied by authors and academics and several of them have postulated the potential causes of these killings along with the factors which were associated with them. Some authors have tabulated a total death toll, consisting of all of the excess deaths which cumulatively occurred under the rule of communist states, but these death toll estimates have been criticised. Most frequently, the states and events which are studied and included in death toll estimates are the Holodomor and the Great Purge in the Soviet Union, the Great Chinese Famine and the Cultural Revolution in the People's Republic of China, and the Cambodian genocide in Democratic Kampuchea. Estimates of individuals killed range from a low of 10–20 million to as high as 148 million.
Barbara Harff is professor of political science emerita at the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis, Maryland. In 2003 and again in 2005 she was a distinguished visiting professor at the Strassler Center for Holocaust and Genocide Studies at Clark University. Her research focuses on the causes, risks, and prevention of genocidal violence.
The Sentinel Project for Genocide Prevention is an international non-governmental organisation based in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, with approximately 60 members in North America. Its mission is "to prevent the crime of genocide worldwide through effective early warning and cooperation with victimized peoples to carry out non-violent prevention initiatives." The Sentinel Project was founded in 2008 by two students, Taneem Talukdar and Christopher Tuckwood, at the University of Waterloo. In 2009, the Sentinel Project's approach was selected as a finalist in Google's 10 to the 100th competition for innovative social application of technology. This organization has been recognized as one of four active anti-genocide organizations based in Canada and is a member of the International Alliance to End Genocide, and the International Coalition for the Responsibility to Protect.
The ten stages of genocide, formerly the eight stages of genocide, is an academic tool and a policy model which was created by Gregory Stanton, the founding president of Genocide Watch, in order to explain how genocides occur. The stages of genocide are not linear, and as a result, several of them may occur simultaneously. Stanton's stages are a conceptual model with no real-world sampling for analyzing the events and processes that lead to genocides, and they are also a model for determining preventative measures.
Prevention of genocide is any action that works toward averting future genocides. Genocides take a lot of planning, resources, and involved parties to carry out, they do not just happen instantaneously. Scholars in the field of genocide studies have identified a set of widely agreed upon risk factors that make a country or social group more at risk of carrying out a genocide, which include a wide range of political and cultural factors that create a context in which genocide is more likely, such as political upheaval or regime change, as well as psychological phenomena that can be manipulated and taken advantage of in large groups of people, like conformity and cognitive dissonance. Genocide prevention depends heavily on the knowledge and surveillance of these risk factors, as well as the identification of early warning signs of genocide beginning to occur.
Holocaust education is efforts, in either formal or informal settings, to teach about the Holocaust. Teaching and Learning about the Holocaust addresses didactics and learning, under the larger umbrella of education about the Holocaust, which also comprises curricula and textbooks studies. The expression "Teaching and Learning about the Holocaust" is used by the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance.
Incitement to genocide is a crime under international law which prohibits inciting (encouraging) the commission of genocide. An extreme form of hate speech, incitement to genocide is an inchoate offense and is theoretically subject to prosecution even if genocide does not occur, although charges have never been brought in an international court without mass violence having occurred. "Direct and public incitement to commit genocide" was forbidden by the Genocide Convention in 1948. Incitement to genocide is often cloaked in metaphor and euphemism and may take many forms beyond direct advocacy, including dehumanization and accusation in a mirror.
Benjamin Andrew Valentino is a political scientist and professor at Dartmouth College. His 2004 book Final Solutions: Mass Killing and Genocide in the 20th Century, adapted from his PhD thesis and published by Cornell University Press, has been reviewed in several academic journals.
Predictions of a genocide in Ethiopia, particularly one that targets Tigrayans, Amharas and/or Oromos, have frequently occurred during the 2020s, particularly in the context of the Tigray War and Ethiopia's broader civil conflict.
During the Russo-Ukrainian War, national parliaments including those of Poland, Ukraine, Canada, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Ireland declared that genocide was taking place. Scholars and commentators including Eugene Finkel, Timothy D. Snyder and Gregory Stanton; and legal experts such as Otto Luchterhandt and Zakhar Tropin, have made claims of varying degrees of certainty that Russia is committing genocide in Ukraine. A comprehensive report by the Raoul Wallenberg Centre for Human Rights concluded that there exists a "very serious risk of genocide" in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Below is an outline of articles on the academic field of genocide studies and subjects closely and directly related to the field of genocide studies; this is not an outline of acts or events related to genocide or topics loosely or sometimes related to the field of genocide studies. The Event outlines section contains links to outlines of acts of genocide.