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Starting in the 1990s, the city of San Francisco and the surrounding San Francisco Bay Area have faced a serious housing shortage. Such is that in October 2015, San Francisco had the highest rents of any major US city. [2] San Francisco has the slowest permitting process of any large city in the United States. The first stage can take an average of 450 calendar days, and the second stage taking 630 days for typical multi-family housing, or 860 days for a single-family house, [3] and the second-most expensive construction costs in the world ($473 / sq. ft.). [4]
The nearby city of San Jose, had the fourth highest rents, and adjacent Oakland, had the sixth highest. [2] Over the period April 2012 to December 2017, the median house price in most counties in the Bay Area nearly doubled. [5] Late San Francisco mayor Ed Lee called the shortage a "housing crisis", [6] and news reports stated that addressing the shortage was the mayor's "top priority". [7] The Bay Area's housing shortage is part of the broader California housing shortage.
Strict zoning regulations are a primary cause behind the housing shortage in San Francisco. [8] [9] Historically, zoning regulations were implemented to restrict housing construction in wealthy neighborhoods, as well as prevent people of color from moving into white neighborhoods. [10] [11] [12] When explicit racial discrimination was prohibited with the 1968 Fair Housing Act, white neighborhoods began instituting zoning regulations that heavily prioritized single-family housing and prohibited construction of the kinds of housing that poor minorities could afford. [11] [12]
Since the 1960s, San Francisco and the surrounding Bay Area have enacted strict zoning regulations. [13] Among other restrictions, San Francisco does not allow buildings over 40 feet tall in most of the city, and has passed laws making it easier for neighbors to block developments. [14] Partly as a result of these codes, from 2007 to 2014, Bay Area cities have issued building permits for only half the number of needed houses, based on the area's population growth. [15]
During the same period, there was rapid economic growth of the high tech industry in San Francisco and nearby Silicon Valley, which created hundreds of thousands of new jobs. The resultant high demand for housing, combined with the lack of supply, (caused by severe restrictions on the building of new housing units [16] ) caused dramatic increases in rents and extremely high housing prices. [17] [18] [19] For example, from 2012 to 2016, the San Francisco metropolitan area added 373,000 new jobs, but permitted only 58,000 new housing units. [20]
Due to the advances of the city's economy from the increase of tourism, the boom of innovative tech companies, and insufficient new housing production, the rent increased by more than 50 percent by the 1990s. [21] [22] Many affluent tech workers migrated to San Francisco in pursuit of job opportunities and the lack of housing in the South Bay. [22] Until the end of the 1960s, San Francisco had affordable housing, which allowed people from many different backgrounds to settle down, but the economic shift impacted the city's demographics. [21] All of this resulted in constant gentrification of many neighborhoods. [23] By 1995, residents of areas such as the Tenderloin and The Mission District, which house many immigrants and low-income families, were faced with the possibility of eviction, in order to develop low-income housing into housing for high-income residents. [23] For example, residents of the Mission District, constituting 5 percent of the city's population, experienced 14 percent of the citywide evictions in the year 2000. [24]
The effect of housing policies has been to discourage migration to California, especially San Francisco and other coastal areas, as the California Legislative Analyst's Office 2015 report "California's High Housing Costs - Causes and Consequences" details: [From 1980-2010]
"If California had added 210,000 new housing units each year over the past three decades (as opposed to 120,000), [enough to keep California's housing prices no more than 80% higher than the median for the U.S. as a whole--the price differential which existed in 1980] population would be much greater than it is today.
We estimate that around 7 million additional people would be living in California.
In some areas, particularly the Bay Area, population increases would be dramatic. For example,
San Francisco's population would be more than twice as large (1.7 million people versus around 800,000)." [25]
On this issue, New York Times opinion writer Farhad Manjoo stated in 2019: "What Republicans want to do with I.C.E. and border walls, wealthy progressive Democrats are doing with zoning and Nimbyism. Preserving “local character,” maintaining “local control,” keeping housing scarce and inaccessible — the goals of both sides are really the same: to keep people out." [26]
A 2021 study by housing economists Joseph Gyourko and Jacob Krimmel estimated that artificially inflated land prices—referred to as a "zoning tax", or the cost for the "right to build"—brought on by tight residential zoning rules amounted to more than $400,000 per home. [27] [28]
In an attempt to address evictions, San Francisco City Supervisor David Campos (D9) passed two new city ordinances, each requiring landlords to pay tens of thousands of dollars to each tenant evicted under the Ellis Act. The first ordinance was struck down in 2014 as unconstitutional under the Fifth Amendment, [29] while the second was rejected the following yer as contrary to California state law. [30]
Mayor Ed Lee responded to the shortage by calling for the construction of 30,000 new housing units by 2020, and proposing a $310 million city bond to fund below-market-rate housing units. [31] The goal of 30,000 new units was approved by San Francisco voters in 2014's Proposition K, [32] and the affordable housing bond was passed in 2015 as Proposition A. [33]
In 2015, then City Supervisor Scott Wiener (D8) criticized the advocates of anti-development laws, writing an article titled "Yes, Supply & Demand Apply to Housing, Even in San Francisco" in response to Proposition I. Wiener called for greatly increasing the supply of all housing, including both subsidized housing and housing at market rate. [34]
In November 2015, San Francisco voters rejected two ballot propositions both of which were claimed by their supporters to reduce the crisis. The first, Proposition F, would have enacted a number of restrictions on Airbnb rentals within the city. The second, Proposition I or the "Mission Moratorium", would have blocked all housing development in San Francisco's Mission District for 18 months, except for developments in which every apartment was subsidized at a below-market rate.[ citation needed ] [35]
In 2017, almost 75% of all city land zoned residential allowed only single-family homes or duplexes. [36] [37] David Garcia, policy director of the Terner Center for Housing Innovation at UC Berkeley, said that a proposal to allow fourplexes everywhere would be a more equitable proposal, and that research shows that the housing shortage is so large that limiting new housing to specific areas would not sufficiently address the shortage. [36] [37]
In October 2021, the Board of Supervisors and Mayor Breed's office passed a proposal to allow slightly greater density by legalizing fourplexes for each lot and six unit complexes on corner lots. [38] Further, the measure lessens the property ownership time from five years (as the original proposal stated) to one year before owners can subdivide lots. While the policy has limited impact on streamlining the housing approval process, policy proposer and Board of Supervisor Rafael Mandelman called it "an important step in the right direction to increase [housing] density in San Francisco". [38]
One of the main avenues for increasing the amount of long-term housing options available to unhoused individuals is the removal of current affordable housing construction obstacles. While the city’s Board of Supervisors approved a streamlining ballot measure that would expedite the development approval process for projects that paid construction workers a middle-class wage for developments that are either 100% affordable housing, increased affordability/mixed-income housing, or educator housing, [39] the proposal (Proposition D) received only 49% of the minimum required 51% of votes in the November 2022 election. [40] Since then, robust policy proposals to streamline approval time have been limited. [41]
The YIMBY movement is a pro-infrastructure development movement mostly focusing on public housing policy, real estate development, public transportation, and pedestrian safety in transportation planning, in contrast and in opposition to the NIMBY movement that generally opposes most forms of urban development in order to maintain the status quo. As a popular organized movement in the United States, it began in the San Francisco Bay Area in the 2010s amid a major housing affordability crisis and has subsequently become a potent political force in state and local politics across the United States.
John Avalos is an American politician. He served two terms as a member of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors from 2008 to 2016. Avalos represented District 11 in San Francisco, consisting of the Crocker-Amazon, Excelsior, Ingleside, Oceanview, and Outer Mission districts. Avalos was elected on November 4, 2008 in the 2008 San Francisco election and took office on January 8, 2009. He was re-elected in the 2012 San Francisco election with 94 percent of the vote, and termed out of office in January 2017.
Jane Jungyon Kim is an American attorney and politician, and the first Korean American elected official in San Francisco. She represented San Francisco's District 6 on the Board of Supervisors between 2011 and 2019. She is a member of the San Francisco's Democratic County Central Committee. She is executive director of the California Working Families Party.
Scott Wiener is an American politician and a member of the California State Senate. A Democrat, he represents the 11th Senatorial District, encompassing San Francisco and parts of San Mateo County.
London Nicole Breed is an American politician who is the 45th and current mayor of the City and County of San Francisco. She was supervisor for District 5 and was president of the Board of Supervisors from 2015 to 2018.
The San Francisco Bay Area comprises nine northern California counties and contains five of the ten most expensive counties in the United States. Strong economic growth has created hundreds of thousands of new jobs, but coupled with severe restrictions on building new housing units, it has resulted in an extreme housing shortage which has driven rents to extremely high levels. The Sacramento Bee notes that large cities like San Francisco and Los Angeles both attribute their recent increases in homeless people to the housing shortage, with the result that homelessness in California overall has increased by 15% from 2015 to 2017. In September 2019, the Council of Economic Advisers released a report in which they stated that deregulation of the housing markets would reduce homelessness in some of the most constrained markets by estimates of 54% in San Francisco, 40 percent in Los Angeles, and 38 percent in San Diego, because rents would fall by 55 percent, 41 percent, and 39 percent respectively. In San Francisco, a minimum wage worker would have to work approximately 4.7 full-time jobs to be able to spend less than 30% of their income on renting a two-bedroom apartment.
The Costa–Hawkins Rental Housing Act ("Costa–Hawkins") is a California state law, enacted in 1995, which places limits on municipal rent control ordinances. Costa–Hawkins preempts the field in two major ways. First, it prohibits cities from establishing rent control over certain kinds of residential units, e.g., single-family dwellings and condominiums, and newly constructed apartment units; these are deemed exempt. Second, it prohibits "vacancy control", also called "strict" rent control. The legislation was sponsored by Democratic Senator Jim Costa and Republican Assemblymember Phil Hawkins.
Aaron Dan Peskin is an American elected official in San Francisco, California. He is a member of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors representing District 3. He was elected in 2015, having previously served two terms in 2001–2009.
David Sen-Fu Chiu is an American politician currently serving as the City Attorney of San Francisco. Previously, he served in the California State Assembly as a Democrat representing the 17th Assembly District, which encompasses the eastern half of San Francisco. Chiu was the Chair of the Assembly Housing and Community Development Committee, a position he held from 2016 to 2021, and the former chair of the California Asian & Pacific Islander Legislative Caucus.
The San Francisco Bay Area Renters' Federation (SFBARF) is a political advocacy group formed in response to the present-day San Francisco housing shortage. SFBARF advocates for more housing development, and fewer zoning restrictions on the production of housing. It is one of several formed YIMBY groups in the San Francisco Bay Area.
Hillary Ronen is an American politician and attorney serving as a member of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors from District 9, which includes the neighborhoods of Mission District, Bernal Heights, and Portola.
Since about 1970, California has been experiencing an extended and increasing housing shortage, such that by 2018, California ranked 49th among the states of the U.S. in terms of housing units per resident. This shortage has been estimated to be 3-4 million housing units as of 2017. Experts say that California needs to double its current rate of housing production to keep up with expected population growth and prevent prices from further increasing, and needs to quadruple the current rate of housing production over the next seven years in order for prices and rents to decline.
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Rafael Mandelman is an American attorney and politician currently serving on the San Francisco Board of Supervisors, representing District 8.
Matthew Craig Haney is an American politician from San Francisco currently serving as a member of the California State Assembly from the 17th district, covering the eastern portion of the city. A progressive member of the Democratic Party, Haney had represented District 6 on the San Francisco Board of Supervisors from 2019 to 2022 and previously served as a commissioner on the San Francisco Board of Education from 2013 to 2019.
Gordon Mar is an American politician from San Francisco. He was a member of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors from 2019 to 2023, representing District 4. He is the brother of former District 1 supervisor Eric Mar.
Dean E. Preston is an American attorney and member of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors. In November 2019, Preston won a special election to finish Mayor London Breed's term on the Board of Supervisors. He was re-elected in the November 2020 election.
Connie Chan is an American politician serving as a member of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors for District 1 since January 8, 2021, after defeating Marjan Philhour, who ran for the seat in 2016, in a narrow race. Chan is a progressive. District 1 includes the Richmond, Lone Mountain, Sea Cliff, and Presidio Terrace neighborhoods, and parts of Golden Gate Park.
Single-family zoning is a type of planning restriction applied to certain residential zones in the United States and Canada in order to restrict development to only allow single-family detached homes. It disallows townhomes, duplexes, and multifamily housing (apartments) from being built on any plot of land with this zoning designation.
The 2022 California 17th State Assembly district special election was a special election to fill the vacant 17th Assembly District. The special election was called after incumbent Assemblymember David Chiu resigned the seat to become City Attorney of San Francisco. Matt Haney, a member of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors, won the election.
To build housing in San Francisco, developers must first receive planning approval, known as entitlement, to ensure the city supports the type, size and design of housing proposed for a site. This part of the process took an average of 450 days over the last 18 months, according to recent data from the state. Then comes post-entitlement — the focus of The Chronicle's analysis ... The typical applicant currently waits a staggering 627 calendar days before obtaining a full building permit from the city to construct a multifamily housing project, and 861 days before gaining the same approval for a single-family residence, the analysis found.
So how can smaller Seattle make so much more housing happen than San Francisco? Developers active in both cities and officials who have worked in both point to structural differences that outweigh the demographic similarities. In San Francisco, development issues are routinely subject to consideration by neighborhood bodies, approval by the city planning commission and often ratification by its board of supervisors, with opportunities for decisions to be appealed. Seattle's approval process is much more streamlined ... The city's planning commission is strictly a policy entity. It does not approve or reject projects. The city council weighs in on projects only in rare cases. [In S.F.] ... he thinks that the California Environmental Quality Act, known as CEQA, makes it too easy for residents to sue projects, effectively holding them up for years or blocking them.
San Francisco's metropolitan area added 373,000 net new jobs in the last five years—but issued permits for only 58,000 units of new housing. The lack of new construction has exacerbated housing costs in the Bay Area, making the San Francisco metro among the cruelest markets in the U.S. Over the same period, Houston added 346,000 jobs and permitted 260,000 new dwellings, five times as many units per new job as San Francisco.
It was another chapter in a dismal saga of Nimbyist urban mismanagement that is crushing American cities. Not-in-my-backyardism is a bipartisan sentiment, but because the largest American cities are populated and run by Democrats — many in states under complete Democratic control — this sort of nakedly exclusionary urban restrictionism is a particular shame of the left.
Restrictive zoning has impacted housing supply and affordability. A 2021 study found that in San Francisco, the "zoning tax" -— the amount land prices are artificially inflated due to restrictive residential zoning laws — was estimated at more than $400,000 per house.
He actually thinks Mandelman would have a better chance of ensuring equity if he followed Sacramento's path and allowed fourplexes everywhere. Then large parts of the west side that have been frozen in time would finally have to carry their weight, alleviating the crush on the east side. ... "There's a lot of research on the need to increase housing supply in all in-fill areas, not just near transit," Garcia said. "San Francisco has some robust transit, but certainly not to the degree where limiting new housing to those areas is going to have as big of an impact as we need to address the full shortage."