Housing crisis

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The term housing crisis refers to acute problems with the provision or market for shelter and lodging. These include shortage and affordability crises as well as financial crises related to the real estate sector. [1]

Contents

Following the first definition, the term "housing crisis" or "affordability crisis" is currently used in the United States and other countries to refer to widespread shortages of housing in certain regions where people want to live. These shortages, caused in part by regulatory barriers to new construction, have led to a rise in homelessness, housing insecurity, and housing costs. Its different manifestations indicate that there is not one crisis but a "web of problems and dysfunctions." [2] Even in regions that are not experiencing an overall housing shortage, for example, the term housing crisis has been used to refer to shortages for specific segments of the population, such as a shortage of dedicated affordable housing for very-low income populations or permanent supportive housing for those with disabilities.

The term has also been used to refer to financial crises tied to the housing sector, such as in the United States during the subprime mortgage crisis of 2007–2008. Similarly, "housing crisis" has been used to describe financial problems in the Chinese property sector that began in 2020 and are ongoing.

Housing shortage

The term "housing crisis" often refers to issues around high prices for accessing housing, sometimes known as the housing shortage, housing crunch or the homelessness and affordability crisis.

Global housing affordability crisis

Cities around the world are facing an "affordability crisis" as part of a long run trend that has persisted for decades.

Economists debate the causes of this affordability crisis. The state of the debate as of 2022 was summarized by economists Christian Hilber and Olivier Schöni in a contribution to the Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance:

"Three strands of the literature can be distinguished. The first is a strand of the urban economics literature, which highlights the importance of local long-run supply constraints, especially land use restrictions, in conjunction with local longrun demand growth, as crucial determinants of high and growing house costs. The second strand emphasizes macroeconomic factors and financing conditions. It argues that a unique macroeconomic environment with a decline in the real rate of interest (influenced by central banks) or unprecedented availability of housing credit may explain a significant fraction of the increase in house prices over the last two decades. The third strand focuses on the role of unrealistic expectations about future house price growth." [3]

Of the three strands, "the main underlying cause for the 'affordability crisis', which has been mounting for decades, is a combination of strong and growing demand for housing in desirable areas in conjunction with tight long-run supply constraints, both physical and man-made regulatory ones." [3]

Although major cities around the world face housing shortages, leading to the use of the term "Global housing crisis," substantial variation exists across countries and across planning systems. [4] Among developed countries, for example, cities in Japan have relatively abundant and affordable housing for their size, which some have attributed to nationalized control of zoning and easy and fast permitting for housing construction. Most English-speaking countries, on the other hand, stand out for planning systems that enable NIMBY obstruction of housing, with prices rising and housing falling into shortage as a result. Exceptions include Houston non-zoning approach with no restrictions on specific land use (YIMBY) but with other developmental code. [5] Developed European countries, which favor higher density construction than Anglophone countries, have followed a path intermediate between these two. [6]

Impacts

Housing affordability crises have especially hurt the finances of Millennials and Generation Z, who entered a more competitive housing market, resulting in paying a higher proportion of income towards housing costs. [7] Politico suggests that in many countries this has allowed populist politicians to stoke anti-immigrant sentiment among younger voters and has resulted in a generation more skeptical of the ability of democracy to deliver results. [7]

U.S. shortage and affordability crisis

Inflationary impacts

By the 2020s, the United States has faced a growing housing crisis defined by shortages of housing that differ in scope and effect depending on region or segment of the population. The housing shortage has been cited as a major factor in inflation in the US, [8] [9] [10] with Katy O'Donnell of Politico arguing that housing shortages were the single-biggest contributor to inflation. [11] The U.S. Census Bureau found that if you took out housing costs, inflation at the end of 2023 would have been 1.8% instead of 3.2%. [12] Artificial scarcity in the supply of housing, due to NIMBYism, has been a significant factor in making housing more expensive. [13] [14] Freddie Mac estimated that the shortage of homes increased by 52%, to 3.8 million units, between 2018 and 2020. [12]

Cost-burdened

The United States Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) defines affordable housing as "housing on which the occupant is paying no more than 30 percent of gross income for housing costs, including utilities." [15] HUD uses the terms "cost burdened" and "severely cost burdened" to describe individuals or families that spend more than 30% and 50% of their income on housing costs, respectively. [16] According to the 2020 U.S. census, 46% of American renters are cost burdened, with 23% severely cost burdened. [17] The affordable housing gap especially impacts the lower-income households in America. A 2017 HUD survey found that 89% of extremely low income renter households were moderately or severely cost burdened. 83% of very low income households, 54% of low income households, 20% of moderate income households, and 6% of high income households met the same criteria. [18]

Market-wide housing shortages in high-demand areas

Decades of under-building in economically prosperous metros has led to regional housing shortages with national implications. In the 19th century, housing development in the United States was characterized by rapid urban growth in economically productive places. [19] Throughout the 20th century, however, a number of regulations that were designed to block in-fill and direct greenfield development took hold, such as exclusionary zoning. These regulations had the net effect of reducing housing construction and reducing the ability of regional housing stock to adjust to changing market conditions. Beginning in the last quarter of the 20th century, market-wide housing shortages have existed in a growing number of markets throughout the country, starting in prosperous coastal regions, such as Boston, New York, or the California Bay Area. [20] In the last two decades, these shortages have spread from coastal superstar cities to affect broader areas of the country, so that on average there is a deficit of housing nationwide. [21] Rental vacancy rates, for example, which are one marker of the balance of housing supply, have declined across the country. While, in a balanced market, rental vacancy rates should fall between 7 and 8 percent, only one U.S. census region, the South, achieved target levels on average in its metro areas as of 2021. [22]

These regional housing shortages have had nationwide effects. Rates of migration within the United States have fallen, housing costs have risen in areas that would otherwise provide quality jobs, and incomes from region to region have increasingly diverged. [19] Immigration into the United States in certain markets could account for a miniscule amount of inflated housing costs while some Economists believe that deporations would exacerbate the crisis given the high percentage of foreign-born workers building and fixing homes, with a professor at Wharton arguing there is no way to increase the supply without more immigration. [23] Others point out that recent immigrants demand less space, often doubling-up. [23] Immigrants are also more likely to seek out and be recruited to help revitalize places with flagging downtowns and empty homes. [23]

Within areas experiencing these shortages, effects are especially acute among the young, the poor, among renters, those living in crowded conditions, and those experiencing homelessness. Areas with market-wide housing shortages have significantly higher rates of homelessness than those with adequate or surplus housing stock: Variations in rent-levels and vacancies are chief factors explaining regional variations in homelessness rates. [24]

Median size of a new single family home built in the United States, 1973-2021, according to Census data. Zoning restrictions have contributed to this trend in a process called "McMansionization." .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Contractor built single-family homes Owner built single-family homes Median size of new home built.webp
Median size of a new single family home built in the United States, 1973-2021, according to Census data. Zoning restrictions have contributed to this trend in a process called "McMansionization."
   Contractor built single-family homes
   Owner built single-family homes

In certain high-demand metros, single-family zoning has also contributed to the process of "McMansionization." Rather than preserving existing single-family homes, single-family zoning can lead to replacement and upscaling because of cost pressures associated with the housing shortage. [25] A trend towards larger single-family homes is also observable in national census data. [26]

After the COVID-19 pandemic, some baby boomers whose children have moved away have found it prohibitively expensive to move into smaller homes, a paradox caused by the higher prices of newer homes, tax benefits given to long-time owners, higher interest rates, and low supply of appropriately-sized housing caused by restrictive zoning that prohibits accessory dwelling units or requires single-family homes. [27] As of 2024, this shortage is estimated to be between 4 and 7 million homes, resulting in rents rising 30% since 2017. [28]

Affordable and supportive housing

In addition to market-wide housing shortages in certain regions of the United States, the term "housing crisis" has been used to describe persistent shortages of non-commodity and supportive housing provided to vulnerable members of the population. Even in regions with relatively abundant market-rate housing, the market can fail to supply safe and sufficient housing to populations with very low income or disabilities that impair independent living. Insufficient public funding has contributed to a distinct housing crisis affecting these groups. [29] [30] Even regions with relatively abundant housing supply and low rates of homelessness, such as Mississippi, face challenges with street homelessness due to factors like addiction, as well as issues with housing quality. [31]

The affordable housing gap is a socio-economic phenomenon characterized by the scarcity of affordable housing relative to the demand for it. [32] This disparity is linked to social, racial, and economic inequality, and disproportionately affects households with lower incomes. The insufficiency of suitable affordable housing options can lead to negative outcomes for both families and communities, including homelessness.

Discrimination and evictions

In addition to shortage and affordability issues, the term "housing crisis" has been used for overlapping concepts such as a "fair housing crisis," involving residential discrimination and effects of segregation; an "eviction crisis"; issues of gentrification and displacement; and environmental concerns. Eviction, displacement, and forms of housing inequality are worsened by and related to the shortage and affordability crisis, but also have causes of their own and require distinct solutions. [2] [33] [ additional citation(s) needed ]

Rising insurance premiums due to natural disasters has been one source of climate-driven price increases, [34] with one estimate showing home insurance premiums rising 33% between 2020 and 2023. [35] Climate change can also raise energy costs as hotter summers require more energy to keep home cool. [35]

Price fixing

Rent algorithm

ProPublica in 2022 investigated the use of RealPage's algorithmic pricing scheme by many competing rental companies across the United States to set rental prices, which critics allege has helped to raise rents by limiting competition. [36] The US DOJ escalated its investigation into price fixing in March of 2024, [37] and filed an anti-trust lawsuit in August of 2024. [38]

In other countries

India

According to a 2012 report by the National Buildings Organisation (NBO), the shortage of housing units in urban areas was estimated to be 18.78 million. The shortfall is particularly acute for households belonging to the Economically Weaker Section (total household income does not exceed 300,000 rupees), with a shortage of 10.55 million units, as well as the Lower Income Group (total household income is between 300,000 and 600,000 rupees), with a shortage of 7.41 million units. The Middle Income Group and above (households with a total annual income exceeding 600,000 rupees) face a shortfall of 0.82 million units. [39] [40] [ non-primary source needed ]

New Zealand

Auckland quickly boosted supply and slowed the increase in rents and home prices by loosening constraints on the construction. [41] [42] Auckland saw rents grow more slowly than in other parts of the country and more slowly than incomes since it started reforming its housing laws in 2013. As of July 2024, Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy estimated that rents were 28% lower than they would have been without the reforms. [43] Building on Auckland's success, the national government passed a bipartisan upzoning of much of the country's largest cities to allow 3 units and 3 stories on all residential parcels in October of 2021. [44] [45]

United Kingdom

The United Kingdom faces regional shortages of housing, with undersupply and high demand in the south, relative to more abundant housing in economically depressed areas of the north. [46]

The UK National Planning Policy Framework uses the "standard formula" to assess local housing need. The formula uses household growth projections, adjusted for affordability [47] Critics of this method say that it does not account for the present backlog of housing. Households that live in poorly maintained or overcrowded accommodations would not be represented in the standard formula. [48] A 2019 report estimates that 4.75 million households in Great Britain are in need of adequate affordable housing. [49]

In the 2019 general election, both major political parties identified the housing gap as an obstacle for the country, and pledged to increase housing supply. [50] [51] The Parliament has a stated target of 300,000 new homes a year by the mid-2020s. [52]

Financial crisis

Another use of the term "housing crisis" refers to financial crises related to the housing sector. Rapid swings and especially declines in housing asset prices can cause shocks to credit markets, the banking sector, and the wider economy. [53]

Foreclosure crises

Many homebuyers purchase housing on credit in the form of a mortgage, but changing economic conditions can leave them unable to pay back their loans. Guren and McQuade (2020) argue that widespread foreclosures can interact with the housing market to amplify declines in asset prices, leading to prices below levels determined by fundamentals: "When the housing market is hit by a shock that lowers housing demand and induces some foreclosures — for example a drop in employment . . . the dynamic interactions between falling prices, defaults, and credit constraints keep growing numbers of buyers out of the market. The scarcity of buyers lowers prices, intensifies the buyers’ market, and leads to a downward price-default spiral." [54]

Asset cycles and housing crises (financial)

In addition to long-run trends driven by fundamentals, house prices are also subject to asset cycles. Economists debate the causes of these cycles, but have studied links to changing beliefs about asset prices, broader economic conditions, credit constraints, and interactions with mortgage lenders. As part of an asset cycle, house prices can rise above levels determined by fundamentals ("Housing bubble"). During a correction, a financial-housing crisis can occur in the context of a downward price-foreclosure spiral. This "price-foreclosure spiral . . . pushes prices below their long-run level" leading to patterns such as the boom-bust-rebound of the 2000s housing cycle. [55] These foreclosure crises can have significant consequences for the wider economy.

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Cost of living</span> Cost to maintain a standard of living

The cost of living is the cost of maintaining a certain standard of living for an individual or a household. Changes in the cost of living over time can be measured in a cost-of-living index. Cost of living calculations are also used to compare the cost of maintaining a certain standard of living in different geographic areas. Differences in the cost of living between locations can be measured in terms of purchasing power parity rates. A sharp rise in the cost of living can trigger a cost of living crisis, where purchasing power is lost and, for some people, their previous lifestyle is no longer affordable.

Inclusionary zoning (IZ) is municipal and county planning ordinances that require or provide incentives when a given percentage of units in a new housing development be affordable by people with low to moderate incomes. Such housing is known as inclusionary housing. The term inclusionary zoning indicates that these ordinances seek to counter exclusionary zoning practices, which exclude low-cost housing from a municipality through the zoning code. Non-profit affordable housing developers build 100% of their units as affordable, but need significant taxpayer subsidies for this model to work. Inclusionary zoning allows municipalities to have new affordable housing constructed without taxpayer subsidies. In order to encourage for-profit developers to build projects that include affordable units, cities often allow developers to build more total units than their zoning laws currently allow so that there will be enough profit generating market-rate units to offset the losses from the below market-rate units and still allow the project to be financially feasible. Inclusionary zoning can be mandatory or voluntary, though the great majority of units have been built as a result of mandatory programmes. There are variations among the set-aside requirements, affordability levels, and length of time the unit is deed-restricted as affordable housing.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Affordability of housing in the United Kingdom</span> Housing affordability in the UK

The affordability of housing in the UK reflects the ability to rent or buy property. There are various ways to determine or estimate housing affordability. One commonly used metric is the median housing affordability ratio; this compares the median price paid for residential property to the median gross annual earnings for full-time workers. According to official government statistics, housing affordability worsened between 2020 and 2021, and since 1997 housing affordability has worsened overall, especially in London. The most affordable local authorities in 2021 were in the North West, Wales, Yorkshire and The Humber, West Midlands and North East.

A real-estate bubble or property bubble is a type of economic bubble that occurs periodically in local or global real estate markets, and it typically follows a land boom. A land boom is a rapid increase in the market price of real property such as housing until they reach unsustainable levels and then declines. This period, during the run-up to the crash, is also known as froth. The questions of whether real estate bubbles can be identified and prevented, and whether they have broader macroeconomic significance, are answered differently by schools of economic thought, as detailed below.

The YIMBY movement is a pro-housing movement that focuses on encouraging new housing, opposing density limits, and supporting public transportation. It stands in opposition to NIMBY tendencies, which generally oppose most forms of urban development in order to maintain the status quo.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Affordable housing</span> Housing affordable to those with a median household income

Affordable housing is housing which is deemed affordable to those with a household income at or below the median, as rated by the national government or a local government by a recognized housing affordability index. Most of the literature on affordable housing refers to mortgages and a number of forms that exist along a continuum – from emergency homeless shelters, to transitional housing, to non-market rental, to formal and informal rental, indigenous housing, and ending with affordable home ownership. Demand for affordable housing is generally associated with a decrease in housing affordability, such as rent increases, in addition to increased homelessness.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Australian property market</span> Overview of Australian property market

The Australian property market comprises the trade of land and its permanent fixtures located within Australia. The average Australian property price grew 0.5% per year from 1890 to 1990 after inflation, however rose from 1990 to 2017 at a faster rate. House prices in Australia receive considerable attention from the media and the Reserve Bank and some commentators have argued that there is an Australian property bubble.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Housing inequality</span>

Housing inequality is a disparity in the quality of housing in a society which is a form of economic inequality. The right to housing is recognized by many national constitutions, and the lack of adequate housing can have adverse consequences for an individual or a family. The term may apply regionally, temporally or culturally. Housing inequality is directly related to racial, social, income and wealth inequality. It is often the result of market forces, discrimination and segregation.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Affordable housing in Canada</span>

Affordable housing in Canada refers to living spaces that are deemed financially accessible to households with a median household income. Housing affordability is generally measured based on a shelter-cost-to-income ratio (STIR) of 30% by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), the national housing agency of Canada. It encompasses a continuum ranging from market-based options like affordable rental housing and affordable home ownership, to non-market alternatives such as government-subsidized housing. Canada ranks among the lowest of the most developed countries for housing affordability.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">San Francisco housing shortage</span> Housing affordability crisis

Starting in the 1990s, the city of San Francisco and the surrounding San Francisco Bay Area have faced a serious housing shortage. The Bay Area's housing shortage is part of the broader California housing shortage.

The property bubble in New Zealand is a major national economic and social issue. Since the early 1990s, house prices in New Zealand have risen considerably faster than incomes, putting increasing pressure on public housing providers as fewer households have access to housing on the private market. The property bubble has produced significant impacts on inequality in New Zealand, which now has one of the highest homelessness rate in the OECD and a record-high waiting list for public housing. Government policies have attempted to address the crisis since 2013, but have produced limited impacts to reduce prices or increase the supply of affordable housing. However, prices started falling in 2022 in response to tightening of mortgage availability and supply increasing. Some areas saw drops as high as around 9% - albeit from very high prices.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">California housing shortage</span> Extended and increasing shortage since 1970

Since about 1970, California has been experiencing an extended and increasing housing shortage, such that by 2018, California ranked 49th among the states of the U.S. in terms of housing units per resident. This shortage has been estimated to be 3-4 million housing units as of 2017. As of 2018, experts said that California needs to double its current rate of housing production to keep up with expected population growth and prevent prices from further increasing, and needs to quadruple the current rate of housing production over the next seven years in order for prices and rents to decline.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Affordable housing by country</span>

Affordable housing is housing that is deemed affordable to those with a median household income as rated by the national government or a local government by a recognized housing affordability index. A general rule is no more than 30% of gross monthly income should be spent on housing, to be considered affordable as the challenges of promoting affordable housing varies by location.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">New York City housing shortage</span>

For many decades, the New York metropolitan area has suffered from an increasing shortage of housing, as housing supply has not met housing demand. As a result, New York City has the highest rents of any city in the United States.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Canadian property bubble</span> Rise in real estate prices since 2002

The Canadian property bubble refers to a significant rise in Canadian real estate prices from 2002 to present. The Dallas Federal Reserve rated Canadian real estate as "exuberant" beginning in 2003. From 2003 to 2018, Canada saw an increase in home and property prices of up to 337% in some cities. In 2016, the OECD warned that Canada's financial stability was at risk due to elevated housing prices, investment and household debt. By 2018, home-owning costs were above 1990 levels when Canada saw its last housing bubble burst. Bloomberg Economics ranked Canada as the second largest housing bubble across the OECD in 2019 and 2021. Toronto scored the highest in the world in Swiss bank UBS' real estate bubble index in 2022, with Vancouver also scoring among the 10 riskiest cities in the world.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">California Senate Bill 35 (2017)</span> Affordable housing streamlining law

California Senate Bill 35 is a statute streamlining housing construction in California counties and cities that fail to build enough housing to meet state mandated housing construction requirements. The bill was introduced to the California State Assembly by State Senator Scott Wiener (D-SF) on December 15, 2016. SB 35 aims to address the California housing shortage by increasing housing supply. The bill was signed into law on September 29, 2017 by Governor Jerry Brown as part of California’s 2017 Housing Package – a set of 15 bills that provide “an injection of new regulatory and financial resources” for cities.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Housing in the United States</span> Overview of housing in the United States

Housing in the United States comes in a variety of forms and tenures. The rate of homeownership in the United States, as measured by the fraction of units that are owner-occupied, was 64% as of 2017. This rate is less than the rates in other large countries such as China (90%), Russia (89%) Mexico (80%), or Brazil (73%).

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2021–2023 inflation surge</span> Global inflation following the COVID-19 pandemic

Following the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, a worldwide surge in inflation began in mid-2021 and lasted until mid-2022. Many countries saw their highest inflation rates in decades. It has been attributed to various causes, including pandemic-related economic dislocation, supply chain disruptions, the fiscal and monetary stimulus provided in 2020 and 2021 by governments and central banks around the world in response to the pandemic, and price gouging. Preexisting factors that may have contributed to the surge included housing shortages, climate impacts, and government budget deficits have also been cited as factors. Recovery in demand from the COVID-19 recession had, by 2021, revealed significant supply shortages across many business and consumer economic sectors.

The Australian residential property market is the section of the Australian property market that provides rental properties by landlords to tenants. In Australia 31% of households rent their residences. The vast majority rent from private landlords, and a small minority rent from public housing authorities. Over the last three decades the proportion of Australians in public housing has halved, whilst the amount renting privately has grown. The average weekly price for a rental in Australia is $570 AUD. Sydney has the most expensive capital city rents. Rental rates have increased faster than inflation in recent years.

The term "affordable housing" refers to housing that is considered economically accessible for individuals and families whose household income falls at or below the Area Median Income (AMI), as evaluated by either national or local government authorities through an officially recognized housing affordability index. However, in the US, the term is mostly used to refer to housing units that are deed restricted to households considered Low-Income, Very Low-Income, and Extremely Low-Income. These units are most often constructed by non-profit "affordable housing developers" who use a combination of private money and government subsidies. For-profit developers, when building market-rate developments, may include some "affordable" units, if required as part of a city's inclusionary zoning mandate.

References

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  38. ↑ Vogell, Heather (2024-08-23). "DOJ Files Antitrust Suit Against Maker of Rent-Setting Algorithm". ProPublica. Retrieved 2024-08-24.
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  40. ↑ Credit Linked Subsidy Scheme for EWS/LIG (PDF). Ministry of Housing & Urban Poverty Alleviation. January 2017.
  41. ↑ Cruz, Diego Sánchez de la (2024-03-18). "El milagro de Nueva Zelanda: desregula la vivienda y los precios de los alquileres bajan". Libre Mercado (in European Spanish). Retrieved 2024-09-17.
  42. ↑ Clark, Emily (2023-09-24). "Australia has long debated this housing idea, but in Auckland it's already working". ABC News. Retrieved 2024-09-17.
  43. ↑ "YIMBY cities show how to build homes and contain rents". The Economist. July 17, 2024. ISSN   0013-0613 . Retrieved 2024-09-17.
  44. ↑ Greenaway-McGrevy, Ryan (January 24, 2022). "Commentary: New Zealand's bipartisan housing reforms offer a model to other countries". Brookings. Retrieved 2024-09-17.
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