Determination of seismic risk
The determination of seismic risk is the foundation for risk mitigation decision-making, a key step in risk management. Large corporations and other enterprises (e.g., local governments) analyze their 'portfolio' of properties, to determine how to best allocate limited funds for structural strengthening of buildings, or other risk reduction measures such as emergency planning. In calculating the risk of each facility in the 'portfolio', potential life safety and economic losses due not only to structural damage, but also to equipment, contents and business interruption are considered. Public agencies (local, state governments and federal agencies) similarly analyze their portfolios. The interconnections of infrastructures such as water, road and highway, and electric power systems are also considered. Insurance companies routinely employ estimates of seismic risk in their operations to determine appropriate insurance rates, monitor over-accumulation of policies in a small area, and purchase reinsurance. A simplified method of calculating seismic risk for a given city, involves the use of a street survey. [4] If you know the level of seismic hazard, the damage generally follows established patterns.
Seismic risk is often determined using a seismic modeling computer programs which uses the seismic hazard inputs and combines them with the known susceptibilities of structures and facilities, such as buildings, bridges, electrical power switching stations, etc. The result gives probabilities for economic damage or casualties, for example the HAZUS computer program. [5] While the results can be used as a general measure of seismic risk for types of buildings, the actual seismic risk for any individual building may vary considerably and will depend upon its exact configuration and condition. Acquiring and analyzing the specific data for an individual building or facility is one of the most expensive and daunting aspects of seismic risk estimation. Progress is made if one can calculate the 'fragility' or seismic capacity of the components within a structure. [6]
In 1999, ASTM produced guidelines for reporting seismic loss estimates on commercial properties, commonly known as Probable Maximum Loss or PML reviews. These guidelines specify the scope of work, qualifications of the reviewer, and proper nomenclature for reporting loss estimates. [7]
A disaster is an event that causes serious harm to people, buildings, economies, or the environment, and the affected community cannot handle it alone. Natural disasters like avalanches, floods, earthquakes, and wildfires are caused by natural hazards. Human-made disasters like oil spills, terrorist attacks and power outages are caused by people. Nowadays, it is hard to separate natural and human-made disasters because human actions can make natural disasters worse. Climate change also affects how often disasters due to extreme weather hazards happen.
A natural disaster is the very harmful impact on a society or community after a natural hazard event. Some examples of natural hazard events include avalanches, droughts, earthquakes, floods, heat waves, landslides, tropical cyclones, volcanic activity and wildfires. Additional natural hazards include blizzards, dust storms, firestorms, hails, ice storms, sinkholes, thunderstorms, tornadoes and tsunamis. A natural disaster can cause loss of life or damage property. It typically causes economic damage. How bad the damage is depends on how well people are prepared for disasters and how strong the buildings, roads, and other structures are. Scholars have been saying that the term natural disaster is unsuitable and should be abandoned. Instead, the simpler term disaster could be used. At the same time the type of hazard would be specified. A disaster happens when a natural or human-made hazard impacts a vulnerable community. It results from the combination of the hazard and the exposure of a vulnerable society.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is an agency of the United States Department of Homeland Security (DHS), initially created under President Jimmy Carter by Presidential Reorganization Plan No. 3 of 1978 and implemented by two Executive Orders on April 1, 1979. The agency's primary purpose is to coordinate the response to a disaster that has occurred in the United States and that overwhelms the resources of local and state authorities. The governor of the state in which the disaster occurs must declare a state of emergency and formally request from the President that FEMA and the federal government respond to the disaster. The only exception to the state's gubernatorial declaration requirement occurs when an emergency or disaster takes place on federal property or to a federal asset—for example, the 1995 bombing of the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, or the Space Shuttle Columbia in the 2003 return-flight disaster.
A seismic hazard is the probability that an earthquake will occur in a given geographic area, within a given window of time, and with ground motion intensity exceeding a given threshold. With a hazard thus estimated, risk can be assessed and included in such areas as building codes for standard buildings, designing larger buildings and infrastructure projects, land use planning and determining insurance rates. The seismic hazard studies also may generate two standard measures of anticipated ground motion, both confusingly abbreviated MCE; the simpler probabilistic Maximum Considered Earthquake, used in standard building codes, and the more detailed and deterministic Maximum Credible Earthquake incorporated in the design of larger buildings and civil infrastructure like dams or bridges. It is important to clarify which MCE is being discussed.
Preparations for earthquakes can consist of survival measures, preparation that will improve survival in the event of an earthquake, or mitigating measures, that seek to minimise the effect of an earthquake. Common survival measures include storing food and water for an emergency, and educating individuals what to do during an earthquake. Mitigating measures can include firmly securing large items of furniture, TV and computer screens that may otherwise fall over in an earthquake. Likewise, avoiding storing items above beds or sofas reduces the chance of objects falling on individuals.
Urban seismic risk is the risk of earthquakes damaging or destroying people and things in towns and cities. Even if a big earthquake is likely urban seismic risk can be minimized with good earthquake construction, and seismic analysis. One of the best ways to deal with the issue is through an earthquake scenario analysis. Earthquake engineering can reduce the risk.
Induced seismicity is typically earthquakes and tremors that are caused by human activity that alters the stresses and strains on Earth's crust. Most induced seismicity is of a low magnitude. A few sites regularly have larger quakes, such as The Geysers geothermal plant in California which averaged two M4 events and 15 M3 events every year from 2004 to 2009. The Human-Induced Earthquake Database (HiQuake) documents all reported cases of induced seismicity proposed on scientific grounds and is the most complete compilation of its kind.
Earthquake engineering is an interdisciplinary branch of engineering that designs and analyzes structures, such as buildings and bridges, with earthquakes in mind. Its overall goal is to make such structures more resistant to earthquakes. An earthquake engineer aims to construct structures that will not be damaged in minor shaking and will avoid serious damage or collapse in a major earthquake. A properly engineered structure does not necessarily have to be extremely strong or expensive. It has to be properly designed to withstand the seismic effects while sustaining an acceptable level of damage.
Mitigation is the reduction of something harmful that has occurred or the reduction of its harmful effects. It may refer to measures taken to reduce the harmful effects of hazards that remain in potentia, or to manage harmful incidents that have already occurred. It is a stage or component of emergency management and of risk management. The theory of mitigation is a frequently used element in criminal law and is often used by a judge to try cases such as murder, where a perpetrator is subject to varying degrees of responsibility as a result of one's actions.
Hazus is a geographic information system-based natural hazard analysis tool developed and freely distributed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).
Disaster risk reduction aims to make disasters less likely to happen. The approach, also called DRR or disaster risk management, also aims to make disasters less damaging when they do occur. DRR aims to make communities stronger and better prepared to handle disasters. In technical terms, it aims to make them more resilient or less vulnerable. When DRR is successful, it makes communities less the vulnerable because it mitigates the effects of disasters. This means DRR can make risky events fewer and less severe. Climate change can increase climate hazards. So development efforts often consider DRR and climate change adaptation together.
The Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI) is a leading technical society in dissemination of earthquake risk and earthquake engineering research both in the U.S. and globally. EERI members include researchers, geologists, geotechnical engineers, educators, government officials, and building code regulators. Their mission, as stated in their 5-year plan published in 2006, has three points: "Advancing the science and practice of earthquake engineering; Improving understanding of the impact of earthquakes on the physical, social, economic, political, and cultural environment; and Advocating comprehensive and realistic measures for reducing the harmful effects of earthquakes".
Flood management describes methods used to reduce or prevent the detrimental effects of flood waters. Flooding can be caused by a mix of both natural processes, such as extreme weather upstream, and human changes to waterbodies and runoff. Flood management methods can be either of the structural type and of the non-structural type. Structural methods hold back floodwaters physically, while non-structural methods do not. Building hard infrastructure to prevent flooding, such as flood walls, is effective at managing flooding. However, it is best practice within landscape engineering to rely more on soft infrastructure and natural systems, such as marshes and flood plains, for handling the increase in water.
The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a public–private partnership initiated in 2006 by the Global Science Forum of the OECD to develop global, open-source risk assessment software and tools. With committed backing from academia, governments and industry, GEM contributes to achieving profound, lasting reductions in earthquake risk worldwide by following the priorities of the Hyogo Framework for Action. From 2009 to 2013 GEM is constructing its first working global earthquake model and will provide an authoritative standard for calculating and communicating earthquake risk worldwide.
A hazard is a potential source of harm. Substances, events, or circumstances can constitute hazards when their nature would potentially allow them to cause damage to health, life, property, or any other interest of value. The probability of that harm being realized in a specific incident, combined with the magnitude of potential harm, make up its risk. This term is often used synonymously in colloquial speech.
Recent advances are improving the speed and accuracy of loss estimates immediately after earthquakes so that injured people may be rescued more efficiently. "Casualties" are defined as fatalities and injured people, which are due to damage to occupied buildings. After major and large earthquakes, rescue agencies and civil defense managers rapidly need quantitative estimates of the extent of the potential disaster, at a time when information from the affected area may not yet have reached the outside world. For the injured below the rubble every minute counts. To rapidly provide estimates of the extent of an earthquake disaster is much less of a problem in industrialized than in developing countries. This article focuses on how one can estimate earthquake losses in developing countries in real time.
Incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) is a computational analysis method of earthquake engineering for performing a comprehensive assessment of the behavior of structures under seismic loads. It has been developed to build upon the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in order to estimate the seismic risk faced by a given structure. It can be considered to be the dynamic equivalent of the static pushover analysis.
In the fields of engineering and construction, resilience is the ability to absorb or avoid damage without suffering complete failure and is an objective of design, maintenance and restoration for buildings and infrastructure, as well as communities. A more comprehensive definition is that it is the ability to respond, absorb, and adapt to, as well as recover in a disruptive event. A resilient structure/system/community is expected to be able to resist to an extreme event with minimal damages and functionality disruptions during the event; after the event, it should be able to rapidly recovery its functionality similar to or even better than the pre-event level.
The Utah Seismic Safety Commission (USSC) is a legislatively created independent advisory board that tends to seismic-hazard issues in Utah, United States. The Utah legislature created the 15-member commission in 1994 to supersede the Utah Earthquake Advisory Board and to act as a medium "for state and local governments, the private sector, and the public to advance earthquake-related issues by developing, researching, and recommending seismic policies and approaches aimed at reducing Utah's earthquake hazards and managing Utah's earthquake risk."
Omar-Darío Cardona Arboleda is a civil engineer, academic, and author. He is a Titular Professor of integrated disaster risk management and climate change adaptation in the Institute of Environment Studies at the National University of Colombia, Co-founder, and CEO of Ingeniar: Risk Intelligence.
