Seismic hazard

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Surface motion map for a hypothetical earthquake on the northern portion of the Hayward Fault Zone and its presumed northern extension, the Rodgers Creek Fault Zone RogersCrkNorthHayward.gif
Surface motion map for a hypothetical earthquake on the northern portion of the Hayward Fault Zone and its presumed northern extension, the Rodgers Creek Fault Zone

A seismic hazard is the probability that an earthquake will occur in a given geographic area, within a given window of time, and with ground motion intensity exceeding a given threshold. [1] [2] With a hazard thus estimated, risk can be assessed and included in such areas as building codes for standard buildings, designing larger buildings and infrastructure projects, land use planning and determining insurance rates. The seismic hazard studies also may generate two standard measures of anticipated ground motion, both confusingly abbreviated MCE; the simpler probabilistic Maximum Considered Earthquake (or Event [3] ), used in standard building codes, and the more detailed and deterministic Maximum Credible Earthquake incorporated in the design of larger buildings and civil infrastructure like dams or bridges. It is important to clarify which MCE is being discussed. [4]

Contents

Calculations for determining seismic hazard were first formulated by C. Allin Cornell in 1968 [5] and, depending on their level of importance and use, can be quite complex. [6] The regional geology and seismology setting is first examined for sources and patterns of earthquake occurrence, both in depth and at the surface from seismometer records; secondly, the impacts from these sources are assessed relative to local geologic rock and soil types, slope angle and groundwater conditions. Zones of similar potential earthquake shaking are thus determined and drawn on maps. The well known San Andreas Fault is illustrated as a long narrow elliptical zone of greater potential motion, like many areas along continental margins associated with the Pacific Ring of Fire. Zones of higher seismicity in the continental interior may be the site for intraplate earthquakes) and tend to be drawn as broad areas, based on historic records, like the 1812 New Madrid earthquake, since specific causative faults are generally not identified as earthquake sources.

Each zone is given properties associated with source potential: how many earthquakes per year, the maximum size of earthquakes (maximum magnitude), etc. Finally, the calculations require formulae that give the required hazard indicators for a given earthquake size and distance. For example, some districts prefer to use peak acceleration, others use peak velocity, and more sophisticated uses require response spectral ordinates.

The computer program then integrates over all the zones and produces probability curves for the key ground motion parameter. The final result gives a 'chance' of exceeding a given value over a specified amount of time. Standard building codes for homeowners might be concerned with a 1 in 500 years chance, while nuclear plants look at the 10,000 year time frame. A longer-term seismic history can be obtained through paleoseismology. The results may be in the form of a ground response spectrum for use in seismic analysis.

More elaborate variations on the theme also look at the soil conditions. [7] Higher ground motions are likely to be experienced on a soft swamp compared to a hard rock site. The standard seismic hazard calculations become adjusted upwards when postulating characteristic earthquakes. Areas with high ground motion due to soil conditions are also often subject to soil failure due to liquefaction. Soil failure can also occur due to earthquake-induced landslides in steep terrain. Large area landsliding can also occur on rather gentle slopes as was seen in the Good Friday earthquake in Anchorage, Alaska, March 28, 1964.

MCEs

In a normal seismic hazard analyses intended for the public, that of a "maximum considered earthquake", or "maximum considered event" (MCE) for a specific area, is an earthquake that is expected to occur once in approximately 2,500 years; that is, it has a 2-percent probability of being exceeded in 50 years. The term is used specifically for general building codes, which people commonly occupy; building codes in many localities will require non-essential buildings to be designed for "collapse prevention" in an MCE, so that the building remains standing – allowing for safety and escape of occupants – rather than full structural survival of the building.

A far more detailed and stringent MCE stands for "maximum credible earthquake", [8] [9] which is used in designing for skyscrapers and larger civil infrastructure, like dams, where structural failure could lead to other catastrophic consequences. These MCEs might require determining more than one specific earthquake event, depending on the variety of structures included. [10]

Map of peak ground acceleration with 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years 2014 pga2pct50yrs (vector).svg
Map of peak ground acceleration with 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years

US seismic hazard maps

Some maps released by the USGS are shown with peak ground acceleration with a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, measured in Metre per second squared. For parts of the US, the National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project in 2008 resulted in seismic hazard maps showing peak acceleration (as a percentage of gravity) with a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years.

Temblor, a company founded in 2014, offers a seismic hazard rank for all of the conterminous US. This service is free and ad-free for the public. The hazard rank "is made for the likelihood of experiencing strong shaking (0.4g peak ground acceleration) in 30 years, based on the 2014 USGS NSHMP hazard model." [11]

Color-blind friendly global map of peak ground acceleration with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years Global-Seismic-Hazard-sInk-Fabio-Crameri.png
Color-blind friendly global map of peak ground acceleration with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years

Global seismic hazard maps

Global seismic hazard maps exist too, which similarly present the level of certain ground motions that have a 10% probability of exceedance (or a 90% chance of non-exceedance) during a 50-year time span (that corresponds to a return period of 475 years). [12]

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Earthquake</span> Sudden movement of the Earths crust

An earthquake – also called a quake, tremor, or temblor – is the shaking of the Earth's surface resulting from a sudden release of energy in the lithosphere that creates seismic waves. Earthquakes can range in intensity, from those so weak they cannot be felt, to those violent enough to propel objects and people into the air, damage critical infrastructure, and wreak destruction across entire cities. The seismic activity of an area is the frequency, type, and size of earthquakes experienced over a particular time. The seismicity at a particular location in the Earth is the average rate of seismic energy release per unit volume.

The Modified Mercalli intensity scale measures the effects of an earthquake at a given location. This is in contrast with the seismic magnitude usually reported for an earthquake.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Seismic risk</span> Likelihood of damage to a building or system from an earthquake

Seismic risk or earthquake risk is the potential impact on the built environment and on people's well-being due to future earthquakes. Seismic risk has been defined, for most management purposes, as the potential economic, social and environmental consequences of hazardous events that may occur in a specified period of time. A building located in a region of high seismic hazard is at lower risk if it is built to sound seismic engineering principles. On the other hand, a building located in a region with a history of minor seismicity, in a brick building located on fill subject to liquefaction can be as high or higher risk.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1971 San Fernando earthquake</span> Earthquake in California

The 1971 San Fernando earthquake occurred in the early morning of February 9 in the foothills of the San Gabriel Mountains in southern California. The unanticipated thrust earthquake had a magnitude of 6.5 on the Ms scale and 6.6 on the Mw scale, and a maximum Mercalli intensity of XI (Extreme). The event was one in a series that affected Los Angeles County during the late 20th century. Damage was locally severe in the northern San Fernando Valley and surface faulting was extensive to the south of the epicenter in the mountains, as well as urban settings along city streets and neighborhoods. Uplift and other effects affected private homes and businesses.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Japan Meteorological Agency seismic intensity scale</span> Japanese earthquake measurements

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Seismic Intensity Scale is a seismic intensity scale used in Japan to categorize the intensity of local ground shaking caused by earthquakes.

Peak ground acceleration (PGA) is equal to the maximum ground acceleration that occurred during earthquake shaking at a location. PGA is equal to the amplitude of the largest absolute acceleration recorded on an accelerogram at a site during a particular earthquake. Earthquake shaking generally occurs in all three directions. Therefore, PGA is often split into the horizontal and vertical components. Horizontal PGAs are generally larger than those in the vertical direction but this is not always true, especially close to large earthquakes. PGA is an important parameter for earthquake engineering, The design basis earthquake ground motion (DBEGM) is often defined in terms of PGA.

Induced seismicity is typically earthquakes and tremors that are caused by human activity that alters the stresses and strains on Earth's crust. Most induced seismicity is of a low magnitude. A few sites regularly have larger quakes, such as The Geysers geothermal plant in California which averaged two M4 events and 15 M3 events every year from 2004 to 2009. The Human-Induced Earthquake Database (HiQuake) documents all reported cases of induced seismicity proposed on scientific grounds and is the most complete compilation of its kind.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Response spectrum</span>

A response spectrum is a plot of the peak or steady-state response of a series of oscillators of varying natural frequency, that are forced into motion by the same base vibration or shock. The resulting plot can then be used to pick off the response of any linear system, given its natural frequency of oscillation. One such use is in assessing the peak response of buildings to earthquakes. The science of strong ground motion may use some values from the ground response spectrum for correlation with seismic damage.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Strong ground motion</span> Earthquake shaking

In seismology, strong ground motion is the strong earthquake shaking that occurs close to a causative fault. The strength of the shaking involved in strong ground motion usually overwhelms a seismometer, forcing the use of accelerographs for recording. The science of strong ground motion also deals with the variations of fault rupture, both in total displacement, energy released, and rupture velocity.

Earthquake engineering is an interdisciplinary branch of engineering that designs and analyzes structures, such as buildings and bridges, with earthquakes in mind. Its overall goal is to make such structures more resistant to earthquakes. An earthquake engineer aims to construct structures that will not be damaged in minor shaking and will avoid serious damage or collapse in a major earthquake. A properly engineered structure does not necessarily have to be extremely strong or expensive. It has to be properly designed to withstand the seismic effects while sustaining an acceptable level of damage.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Earthquake zones of India</span>

The Indian subcontinent has a history of devastating earthquakes. The major reason for the high frequency and intensity of the earthquakes is that the Indian plate is driving into Asia at a rate of approximately 47 mm/year. Geographical statistics of India show that almost 58% of the land is vulnerable to earthquakes. A World Bank and United Nations report shows estimates that around 200 million city dwellers in India will be exposed to storms and earthquakes by 2050. The latest version of seismic zoning map of India given in the earthquake resistant design code of India [IS 1893 2002] assigns four levels of seismicity for India in terms of zone factors. In other words, the earthquake zoning map of India divides India into 4 seismic zones unlike its previous version, which consisted of five or six zones for the country. According to the present zoning map, Zone 5 expects the highest level of seismicity whereas Zone 2 is associated with the lowest level of seismicity.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1993 Scotts Mills earthquake</span> Earthquake in Oregon

The 1993 Scotts Mills earthquake, also known as the "Spring break quake", occurred in the U.S. state of Oregon on March 25 at 5:34 AM Pacific Standard Time. With a moment magnitude of 5.6 and a maximum perceived intensity of VII on the Mercalli intensity scale, it was the largest earthquake in the Pacific Northwest since the Elk Lake and Goat Rocks earthquakes of 1981. Ground motion was widely felt in Oregon's Willamette Valley, the Portland metropolitan area, and as far north as the Puget Sound area near Seattle, Washington.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Seismic microzonation</span>

Seismic microzonation is defined as the process of subdividing a potential seismic or earthquake prone area into zones with respect to some geological and geophysical characteristics of the sites such as ground shaking, liquefaction susceptibility, landslide and rock fall hazard, earthquake-related flooding, so that seismic hazards at different locations within the area can correctly be identified. Microzonation provides the basis for site-specific risk analysis, which can assist in the mitigation of earthquake damage. In most general terms, seismic microzonation is the process of estimating the response of soil layers under earthquake excitations and thus the variation of earthquake characteristics on the ground surface.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Hazard</span> Situation or object that can cause damage

A hazard is a potential source of harm. Substances, events, or circumstances can constitute hazards when their nature would potentially allow them to cause damage to health, life, property, or any other interest of value. The probability of that harm being realized in a specific incident, combined with the magnitude of potential harm, make up its risk. This term is often used synonymously in colloquial speech.

The 1986 Chalfant Valley earthquake struck southern Mono County near Bishop and Chalfant, California at 07:42:28 Pacific Daylight Time on July 21. With a moment magnitude of 6.2 and a maximum Mercalli intensity of VI (Strong), the shock injured two people and caused property damage estimated at $2.7 million in the affected areas. There was a significant foreshock and aftershock sequence that included a few moderate events, and was the last in a series of three earthquakes that affected southern California and the northern Owens Valley in July 1986.

Recent advances are improving the speed and accuracy of loss estimates immediately after earthquakes so that injured people may be rescued more efficiently. "Casualties" are defined as fatalities and injured people, which are due to damage to occupied buildings. After major and large earthquakes, rescue agencies and civil defense managers rapidly need quantitative estimates of the extent of the potential disaster, at a time when information from the affected area may not yet have reached the outside world. For the injured below the rubble every minute counts. To rapidly provide estimates of the extent of an earthquake disaster is much less of a problem in industrialized than in developing countries. This article focuses on how one can estimate earthquake losses in developing countries in real time.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Spectral acceleration</span>

Spectral acceleration (SA) is a unit measured in g that describes the maximum acceleration in an earthquake on an object – specifically a damped, harmonic oscillator moving in one physical dimension. This can be measured at different oscillation frequencies and with different degrees of damping, although 5% damping is commonly applied. The SA at different frequencies may be plotted to form a response spectrum.

The 1935 Helena earthquake occurred at 22:48:02 MDT on October 18 in Montana, with an epicenter near Helena. It had a magnitude of 6.2 on the surface-wave magnitude scale and a maximum perceived intensity of VIII (Severe) on the Mercalli intensity scale. The temblor on that date was the largest of a series of earthquakes that also included a large aftershock on October 31 of magnitude 6.0 and a maximum intensity of VIII. Two people died in the mainshock and two others died as a result of the October 31 aftershock. Property damage was over $4 million.

The 1980 Eureka earthquake occurred on November 8 at 02:27:34 local time along the northern coastal area of California in the United States. With a moment magnitude of 7.3 and a maximum Mercalli intensity of VII, this strike-slip earthquake was the largest to occur in California in 28 years. Although damage was considered light, several loss estimates equaled or exceeded $2 million, and six injuries resulted when two vehicles came down with the partial collapse of a highway overpass on US 101 in Fields Landing. The north coast of California experiences frequent plate boundary earthquakes near the Mendocino Triple Junction and intraplate events also occur within the Gorda plate.

Seismic intensity scales categorize the intensity or severity of ground shaking (quaking) at a given location, such as resulting from an earthquake. They are distinguished from seismic magnitude scales, which measure the magnitude or overall strength of an earthquake, which may, or perhaps may not, cause perceptible shaking.

References

  1. Baker, Jack; Bradley, Brendon; Stafford, Peter (2021). Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis. Cambridge University Press. ISBN   9781108425056 . Retrieved January 14, 2021.
  2. Natural Resources Canada page on Seismic Hazard Calculations Archived 2008-06-02 at the Wayback Machine
  3. Craig Taylor and Erik VanMarcke, ed. (2002). Acceptable Risk Processes: Lifeline and Natural Hazards. Reston, VA: ASCE, TCLEE. ISBN   9780784406236.
  4. [ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2012-03-30. Retrieved 2011-10-06.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link) Earthquake Definitions, Oregon State University
  5. Cornell, C.A. 1968, Engineering seismic risk analysis, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 58, 1583-1606
  6. McGuire, R. 2008, Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: Early history, Earthquake Engng Struct. Dyn., 37, 329–338 Archived 2009-02-27 at the Wayback Machine
  7. Wang, Z. 2008. A technical note on seismic microzonation in the central United States, J. Earth Syst. Sci. 117, S2, pp. 749–756
  8. Earthquake Design and Evaluation for civil Works Projects Engineering and Design, Department of the Army, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Regulation No. 1110-2-1806, 31 July 1995
  9. Maximum credible earthquake Archived 2007-12-25 at the Wayback Machine , United States Bureau of Reclamation
  10. "Maximum design earthquake". Archived from the original on 2007-12-25. Retrieved 2011-10-06.
  11. "Temblor website". Temblor, Inc.
  12. Giardini, D., Grünthal, G., Shedlock, K. M. and Zhang, P.: The GSHAP Global Seismic Hazard Map. In: Lee, W., Kanamori, H., Jennings, P. and Kisslinger, C. (eds.): International Handbook of Earthquake & Engineering Seismology, International Geophysics Series 81 B, Academic Press, Amsterdam, 1233-1239, 2003.