External links
| Groundhogs | |
|---|---|
| Other marmots | |
Stormy is trotted out once a year to check for his shadow and make a weather prediction. [1] [2]
Concrete Driveway in Colorado claims to rely on Stormy's forecasts to prepare their fleet. [3]
Punxsutawney Phil loyalists have been known to disparage Stormy. [4]
Flatiron Freddy also represents Groundhog Day prognostication in Colorado. He makes his home at Chautauqua Park in Boulder, CO. [5] [6]
| Year | Prediction |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 6 more weeks of winter [7] [8] |
| 2024 | Early spring [9] [10] [11] |
| 2023 | 6 more weeks of winter [12] [13] [14] |
| 2022 | Early spring [15] [16] [17] |
| 2021 | 6 more weeks of winter [18] [19] |
| 2020 | 6 more weeks of winter [20] [21] |
| 2019 | 6 more weeks of winter [22] [23] [24] |
| 2018 | Early spring [25] [26] |
| 2017 | Early spring [27] [28] [29] [30] |
| 2016 | Early spring [31] [32] [33] |
| 2015 | Early spring [34] [35] [36] |
| 2014 | 6 more weeks of winter [37] [38] [39] |
| 2013 | 6 more weeks of winter [40] [41] [42] [1] [43] |
| 2012 | Early spring [44] [45] [46] |
| 2011 | 6 more weeks of winter [47] [48] [49] [50] |
| 2010 | 6 more weeks of winter [51] [52] |
| 2008 | 6 more weeks of winter [53] [54] |
| 2006 | Early spring [55] [56] |
Statistical analysis of groundhog predictions show that Stormy Marmot and Poor Richard (a groundhog based in York, Pennsylvania) have the best correlation to observed weather trends. "When Stormy Marmot predicts an early spring, we can expect March to be on average 6 °F warmer, and April to be 2.5 °F warmer. When Poor Richard predicts an early spring, we can expect February to be 4 °F warmer and March to be 8 °F warmer." [57] Dover Doug, a groundhog from Dover, Pennsylvania, was also noted for having a strong correlation between the sign of his shadow and the arrival of spring conditions. [58] [59]
According to analysis by FiveThirtyEight, Stormy has a 70% prediction accuracy in his own region, tied by General Beauregard Lee for the southeast and beaten only by Snohomish Slew, a bullfrog in the northwest, who has an 80% accuracy. Punxsutawney Phil only scored 50% for his region, the northeast. [60]