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  Santos: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Zimmerman: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Tie: 50% No votes | ||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2022 New York's 3rd congressional district election was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the United States representative for New York's 3rd congressional district. Primary elections were held on August 23. In the general election, Republican George Santos defeated Democrat Robert Zimmerman by 8%, considered an upset in this Democratic-leaning district.
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| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Melanie D'Arrigo | Jon Kaiman | Josh Lafazan | Reema Rasool | Robert Zimmerman | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group (D) [38] [upper-alpha 1] | July 20–24, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 12% | 13% | 10% | 1% | 17% | 48% |
| The Mellman Group (D) [39] [upper-alpha 2] | June 12–16, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 4% | 20% | 20% | 4% | 10% | 43% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Robert Zimmerman | 9,482 | 35.8 | |
| Democratic | Jon Kaiman | 6,884 | 26.0 | |
| Democratic | Josh Lafazan | 5,296 | 20.0 | |
| Democratic | Melanie D'Arrigo | 4,197 | 15.8 | |
| Democratic | Reema Rasool | 661 | 2.5 | |
| Total votes | 26,520 | 100.0 | ||
Organizations
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report [43] | Tossup | November 1, 2022 |
| Inside Elections [44] | Tilt D | October 21, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball [45] | Lean R (flip) | November 7, 2022 |
| Politico [46] | Lean D | May 27, 2022 |
| RCP [47] | Tossup | June 9, 2022 |
| Fox News [48] | Tossup | July 11, 2022 |
| DDHQ [49] | Lean D | August 10, 2022 |
| FiveThirtyEight [50] | Lean D | September 30, 2022 |
| The Economist [51] | Lean D | September 28, 2022 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Robert Zimmerman (D) | George Santos (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RMG Research [52] | August 27 – September 2, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 42% | 41% | 4% | 14% |
Josh Lafazan vs. George Santos vs. Melanie D'Arrigo
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Josh Lafazan (D) | George Santos (R) | Melanie D'Arrigo (WFP) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient (R) [53] [upper-alpha 3] | July 11–12, 2022 | 714 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 33% | 44% | 8% | 15% |
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| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | George Santos | 133,859 | 49.35% | +9.78 | |
| Conservative | George Santos | 11,965 | 4.41% | +0.53 | |
| Total | George Santos | 145,824 | 53.76% | +10.31 | |
| Democratic | Robert Zimmerman | 120,045 | 44.26% | −8.35 | |
| Working Families | Robert Zimmerman | 5,359 | 1.98% | −0.49 | |
| Total | Robert Zimmerman | 125,404 | 46.24% | −9.73 | |
| Total votes | 271,228 | 100.00% | |||
| Republican gain from Democratic | |||||
In the wake of the disclosures about Santos after the election, Democratic Party officials and journalists asked whether Santos would have been elected had voters known about his misrepresentations. FiveThirtyEight noted that Santos's margin of victory was lower than Republicans running statewide who had carried the district—7.5 percent compared to Zeldin's 12 percent, for instance; Republican U.S. Senate candidate Joe Pinion carried the district by a 4 percent margin despite being vastly outspent by his victorious opponent, incumbent Senate majority leader Charles Schumer. The site's calculations suggest that scandals usually reduce an incumbent congressional candidate's margins by 9 percent, but there are so many other variables in elections that it cannot be assumed Santos would have lost just on that basis; sometimes candidates have actually done better than expected after a scandal, and scandal may have less effect in a time of hyperpartisan political identification. [57]
Newsday found that Santos had also benefited from higher-than-usual Republican turnout on Long Island resulting from Zeldin's gubernatorial bid (Zeldin received 47 percent of the vote, the best performance in the state by a Republican candidate for governor since George Pataki in 2002), with 64 percent of the party's voters, 12 percent more than usual, showing up at the polls. "This was not about George Santos", Nassau County Republican chairman Joe Cairo told the paper, noting that Republican candidates, flipped seats in the state legislature in both Nassau and Suffolk counties as well as the congressional seats. "This was a Republican year. Any Republican would have won that district." [58]
Had the state legislature's original redistricting plan been in place at the time of the election, Newsday found, it was likely that the Democratic candidate would have won the 3rd district. That plan, ruled unconstitutional by the state's Court of Appeals, its highest, would have combined the core of the old district on the North Shore and in neighboring Queens with heavily Democratic portions of Westchester County along the north coast of Long Island Sound. That potential district had voted for Biden in 2020 by a 57 percent margin, while the eventual 3rd district had done so by 54 percent, one percent less than the 2020 3rd district. Yet Democrats actually gained about 7,000 voters registered to them from the redistricting. [58]
Cairo discounted the effect of the redistricting. His Democratic counterpart, Jay Jacobs (also the state party chair), agreed. Adding Massapequa to the district at the expense of Huntington had cost "maybe a couple of thousand votes" out of the 20,000 Santos won by. "What did this was the overriding message problem we had on crime and bail reform, the fever pitch those were at in the New York suburbs", Jacobs said. "Santos didn't get elected based on his outstanding resume and he didn't get elected because of redistricting. He got elected because the political environment in New York State favored the Republican messaging." [58] His election made him the first LGBT non-incumbent Republican elected to federal office. [1]
On December 19, 2022, the New York Times found Republican candidate George Santos might have misrepresented his resume. [59] On December 26, in an interview, Santos admitted to lying about his resume but stated he still intends to serve in Congress. [60] The next day, the Republican Jewish Coalition condemned Santos for misrepresenting his heritage. [61] On January 31, 2023, amid outcry from his fabrication of his personal life, and amidst questions about his campaign finances, Santos withdrew from his committee assignments. [62]
On May 10, the United States District Court for the Eastern District of New York indicted Santos on seven counts of wire fraud, three counts of money laundering, two counts of making materially false statements to the House and one count of theft of public funds. [63] On October 10, Santos's previous indictment was replaced with one of 23 various counts, including charging $44,000 of cards from contributors of his campaign without their knowledge. [64]
On November 1, a vote to expel Santos from the house failed 179–213. [65] However, on November 16, the Ethics Committee released a report on Santos that found significant evidence of wrongdoing, finding he exploited his House campaign for his own benefit. [66] On December 1, Santos was expelled in a 311–114 vote. [67] As a result, a special election was held on February 13, 2024, to fill the vacancy, resulting in Santos' Democratic predecessor Tom Suozzi reclaiming his former seat. [68]
Partisan clients
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