AI bubble

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The AI bubble is a theorised ongoing stock market bubble, occurring during the AI boom, an ongoing period of rapid progression in artificial intelligence (AI) which has impacted the broader economy. [1] [2] [3]

Contents

Background

This paragraph is an excerpt from AI boom.[ edit ]
The AI boom [4] [5] is an ongoing period of technological progress in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) that started in the late 2010s before gaining international prominence in the 2020s. Examples include generative AI technologies, such as large language models and AI image generators by companies like OpenAI, as well as scientific advances, such as protein folding prediction led by Google DeepMind. This period is sometimes referred to as an AI spring, to contrast it with previous AI winters. [6] [7] As of 2025, ChatGPT is the 5th most visited website globally behind Google, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram. [8] [9]

Speculation about a bubble

In late January 2025, the unexpectedly successful launch of the Chinese-made chatbot DeepSeek resulted in concerns about a possible AI bubble. The stock prices of many AI companies dropped, such as Nvidia's shares dropping 17% in one day. Nvidia's share price recovered 8.8% the following day. [10]

In August 2025, a report by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology stated "despite US$30-40bn in enterprise investment into Gen[erative]AI, [...] 95% of organisations are getting zero return". [11] This caused concerns about a potential AI bubble and within days the stock market dropped by a few percentage points, a drop of $1 trillion. [12] [11]

Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, stated in 2025 that he believes that an AI bubble is ongoing. [13]

In early 2025, Bridgewater Associates co-investment officer Ray Dalio said that the current levels of investment in AI is "very similar" to the dot-com bubble. [13]

In September 2025, the Australian Financial Review said that "If we really are in another sharemarket bubble, it’s surely the most anticipated example in history." [14]

See also

References

  1. ↑ Aspan, Maria (30 August 2025). "AI and Nvidia have been bright spots in an uncertain economy, but there are doubts now". NPR .
  2. ↑ De Vynck, Gerrit (4 August 2025). "The AI spending boom could have real consequences for the U.S. economy". The Washington Post . Archived from the original on 26 August 2025.
  3. ↑ DePillis, Lydia (27 August 2025). "The A.I. Spending Frenzy Is Propping Up the Real Economy, Too". The New York Times . Archived from the original on 8 September 2025.
  4. ↑ Knight, Will. "Google's Gemini Is the Real Start of the Generative AI Boom". Wired. Retrieved 12 December 2023.
  5. ↑ Meredith, Sam (6 December 2023). "A 'thirsty' generative AI boom poses a growing problem for Big Tech". CNBC. Retrieved 12 December 2023.
  6. ↑ Bommasani, Rishi (17 March 2023). "AI Spring? Four Takeaways from Major Releases in Foundation Models". Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence. Archived from the original on 7 May 2023. Retrieved 16 May 2023.
  7. ↑ "The coming of AI Spring". www.mckinsey.com. Retrieved 7 December 2023.
  8. ↑ "Most Visited Websites in Worldwide 2025 | Trending Websites". Semrush. Retrieved 17 September 2025.
  9. ↑ "Top Websites Ranking, Similarweb".
  10. ↑ "Nvidia and Microsoft shares steady after DeepSeek AI app shock". www.bbc.com. 28 January 2025. Retrieved 26 August 2025.
  11. 1 2 Kahn, Jeremy. "An MIT report that 95% of AI pilots fail spooked investors. But it's the reason why those pilots failed that should make the C-suite anxious". Fortune. Retrieved 26 August 2025.
  12. ↑ "US tech stocks lose $1tn on AI bubble fears". The Telegraph. 20 August 2025. Retrieved 26 August 2025.
  13. 1 2 "Wall Street isn't worried about an AI bubble. Sam Altman is". Fortune . 19 August 2025. Retrieved 26 August 2025.
  14. ↑ "'Close to full ponzi': What big fundies are doing as markets flash red" . Australian Financial Review . 26 September 2025. Retrieved 29 September 2025.
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