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An earnings surprise, or unexpected earnings, in accounting, is the difference between the reported earnings and the expected earnings of an entity. [1] Measures of a firm's expected earnings, in turn, include analysts' forecasts of the firm's profit [2] [3] and mathematical models of expected earnings based on the earnings of previous accounting periods. [4] [5]
Stock markets tend to react in the same direction as earnings surprises—positively to positive earnings surprises and negatively to negative earnings surprises—although a significant proportion of earnings surprises result in stock markets reacting in the opposite direction, which may be a reaction to other relevant information released with the earnings announcement or inaccurate measurement of the earnings surprise. [6]
The market, however, may not correctly estimate the implications of earnings surprises when it revises its expectations of future earnings, which will decrease the change in stock prices associated with the change in earnings. In fact, many studies in accounting research have documented that the market takes up to a year to adjust to earnings announcements, a phenomenon known as the post-earnings announcement drift. [7]
Large negative earnings surprises may have legal and reputational costs to managers. Firstly, managers can be held personally liable if shareholders sue the firm for failing to disclose negative earnings news promptly. Secondly, money managers may choose not to hold, and analysts may choose not to follow, the stocks of firms whose managers have reputations for withholding bad news. This may contribute to managers' voluntary disclosure of information related to negative earnings surprises: quarterly earnings announcements containing large negative earnings surprises are preempted by voluntary disclosures more frequently than are other earnings announcements. [8]
Earnings surprises can be measured using historical earnings or analysts' forecasts. [9]
In accounting research, a measure that uses historical earnings is standardized unexpected earnings (SUE). SUE is the standardized difference between reported earnings and expected earnings, where expected earnings is modelled based on the assumption that earnings follows a seasonal random walk with a specific trend. In other words, in the case of quarterly earnings the SUE for quarter t is
where σ(X) is the standard deviation of X, and the expected earnings, E(Qt), is calculated using prior reported earnings:
where Qt-4 is the reported earnings for quarter t-4 and δ is the average trend. [4]
An alternative measure of SUE that uses analysts' forecasts is
where EPS is a firm's earnings per share, and Forecast is analysts' consensus forecast of its earnings per share. [9]
In financial markets, stock valuation is the method of calculating theoretical values of companies and their stocks. The main use of these methods is to predict future market prices, or more generally, potential market prices, and thus to profit from price movement – stocks that are judged undervalued are bought, while stocks that are judged overvalued are sold, in the expectation that undervalued stocks will overall rise in value, while overvalued stocks will generally decrease in value. A target price is a price at which an analyst believes a stock to be fairly valued relative to its projected and historical earnings.
In corporate finance, free cash flow (FCF) or free cash flow to firm (FCFF) is the amount by which a business's operating cash flow exceeds its working capital needs and expenditures on fixed assets. It is that portion of cash flow that can be extracted from a company and distributed to creditors and securities holders without causing issues in its operations. As such, it is an indicator of a company's financial flexibility and is of interest to holders of the company's equity, debt, preferred stock and convertible securities, as well as potential lenders and investors.
In finance, the beta is a measure of how an individual asset moves when the overall stock market increases or decreases. Thus, beta is a useful measure of the contribution of an individual asset to the risk of the market portfolio when it is added in small quantity. Thus, beta is referred to as an asset's non-diversifiable risk, its systematic risk, market risk, or hedge ratio. Beta is not a measure of idiosyncratic risk.
The 'PEG ratio' is a valuation metric for determining the relative trade-off between the price of a stock, the earnings generated per share (EPS), and the company's expected growth.
The random walk hypothesis is a financial theory stating that stock market prices evolve according to a random walk and thus cannot be predicted.
In financial economics and accounting research, post–earnings-announcement drift or PEAD is the tendency for a stock’s cumulative abnormal returns to drift in the direction of an earnings surprise for several weeks following an earnings announcement.
In finance, diversification is the process of allocating capital in a way that reduces the exposure to any one particular asset or risk. A common path towards diversification is to reduce risk or volatility by investing in a variety of assets. If asset prices do not change in perfect synchrony, a diversified portfolio will have less variance than the weighted average variance of its constituent assets, and often less volatility than the least volatile of its constituents.
An earnings call is a teleconference, or webcast, in which a public company discusses the financial results of a reporting period. The name comes from earnings per share (EPS), the bottom line number in the income statement divided by the number of shares outstanding. The US-based National Investor Relations Institute (NIRI) says that 92% of companies represented by their members conduct earnings calls and that virtually all of these are webcast. Transcripts of calls may be made available either by the company or a third party.
A preannouncement occurs when a company or individual announces something either prior to the time that they do it or prior to the time that they would normally announce it. Preannouncements can take the form of a press release, filing a form with the government, a conference call, or a webcast.
In financial economics, finance, and accounting, the earnings response coefficient, or ERC, is the estimated relationship between equity returns and the unexpected portion of companies' earnings announcements.
In finance, volatility is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time, usually measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns.
Demand forecasting refers to the process of predicting the quantity of goods and services that will be demanded by consumers at a future point in time. More specifically, the methods of demand forecasting entail using predictive analytics to estimate customer demand in consideration of key economic conditions. This is an important tool in optimizing business profitability through efficient supply chain management. Demand forecasting methods are divided into two major categories, qualitative and quantitative methods. Qualitative methods are based on expert opinion and information gathered from the field. This method is mostly used in situations when there is minimal data available for analysis such as when a business or product has recently been introduced to the market. Quantitative methods, however, use available data, and analytical tools in order to produce predictions. Demand forecasting may be used in resource allocation, inventory management, assessing future capacity requirements, or making decisions on whether to enter a new market.
In finance, the T-model is a formula that states the returns earned by holders of a company's stock in terms of accounting variables obtainable from its financial statements. The T-model connects fundamentals with investment return, allowing an analyst to make projections of financial performance and turn those projections into a required return that can be used in investment selection.
Fossil Fuel Beta (FFß) measures the percent change in excess (market-adjusted) stock returns for every 1 percent increase in fossil fuel prices. For example, if a company has an FFß of –0.20, then a 1 percent increase in fossil fuel prices should produce, on average, a 0.2% decline in the firm's stock price over and above the impact arising from fossil fuel price swing on the stock market as a whole.
In finance, the capital structure substitution theory (CSS) describes the relationship between earnings, stock price and capital structure of public companies. The CSS theory hypothesizes that managements of public companies manipulate capital structure such that earnings per share (EPS) are maximized. Managements have an incentive to do so because shareholders and analysts value EPS growth. The theory is used to explain trends in capital structure, stock market valuation, dividend policy, the monetary transmission mechanism, and stock volatility, and provides an alternative to the Modigliani–Miller theorem that has limited descriptive validity in real markets. The CSS theory is only applicable in markets where share repurchases are allowed. Investors can use the CSS theory to identify undervalued stocks.
Dividend policy is concerned with financial policies regarding paying cash dividend in the present or paying an increased dividend at a later stage. Whether to issue dividends, and what amount, is determined mainly on the basis of the company's unappropriated profit and influenced by the company's long-term earning power. When cash surplus exists and is not needed by the firm, then management is expected to pay out some or all of those surplus earnings in the form of cash dividends or to repurchase the company's stock through a share buyback program.
In portfolio management, the Carhart four-factor model is an extra factor addition in the Fama–French three-factor model, proposed by Mark Carhart. The Fama-French model, developed in the 1990, argued most stock market returns are explained by three factors: risk, price and company size. Carhart added a momentum factor for asset pricing of stocks. The Four Factor Model is also known in the industry as the Monthly Momentum Factor (MOM). Momentum is the speed or velocity of price changes in a stock, security, or tradable instrument.
Best on the Street, earlier known as the All Star Analysts Survey is an annual survey-cum-contest of financial analysts in the United States conducted by The Wall Street Journal. Many financial firms participate in the survey and boast about the results on their websites.
Catherine M. Schrand is an American academic and the Celia Z. Moh Professor of Accounting at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania.
Douglas J. Skinner is an accounting professor, and the Deputy Dean for Faculty and Eric J. Gleacher Distinguished Service Professor of Accounting at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. His substantive interests are in corporate accounting and specifically in disclosure practices of corporations and the role of disclosure in shareholder litigation, corporate financial reporting, and corporate finance.
