Pre-election pendulum for the 2015 New South Wales state election

Last updated

The Mackerras pendulum for the 2015 New South Wales state election. [1]

Contents

Legislative Assembly

Pendulum

Liberal/National seats
Marginal
East Hills Glenn Brookes LIB0.2 points
Swansea Garry Edwards LIB0.3 points
Prospect Andrew Rohan LIB1.1 points
Macquarie Fields Andrew McDonald (ALP) 8 LIB1.8 points
Monaro John Barilaro NAT2.0 points
Rockdale John Flowers LIB3.6 points
Granville Tony Issa LIB3.8 points
Oatley Mark Coure LIB3.8 points
Wyong Darren Webber 6 LIB4.6 points
Maitland Robyn Parker LIB4.9 points
Londonderry Bart Bassett LIB5.3 points
Blue Mountains Roza Sage LIB5.4 points
Fairly safe
Strathfield Charles Casuscelli LIB6.4 points
Campbelltown Bryan Doyle LIB6.8 points
Tamworth Kevin Anderson NAT v IND6.8 points
Coogee Bruce Notley-Smith LIB8.3 points
Kiama Gareth Ward LIB8.6 points
Seven Hills Nathan Rees (ALP) 8 LIB8.8 points
Safe
Holsworthy Melanie Gibbons LIB10.7 points
The Entrance Chris Spence 6 LIB11.5 points
Gosford Chris Holstein LIB11.9 points
Mulgoa Tanya Davies LIB12.4 points
Parramatta Geoff Lee LIB12.5 points
Port Stephens Craig Baumann LIB14.7 points
Clarence Chris Gulaptis 1 NAT15.1 points
Penrith Stuart Ayres LIB16.1 points
Drummoyne John Sidoti LIB17.1 points
Ballina Don Page NAT v GRN17.8 points
Upper Hunter George Souris NAT v IND18.3 points
Bega Andrew Constance LIB18.5 points
Heathcote Lee Evans LIB19.0 points
Very safe
Riverstone Kevin Conolly LIB20.2 points
Lismore Thomas George NAT v GRN20.2 points
South Coast Shelley Hancock LIB20.4 points
Wollondilly Jai Rowell LIB21.6 points
Tweed Geoff Provest NAT21.7 points
Orange Andrew Gee NAT v IND21.9 points
Camden Chris Patterson LIB22.8 points
North Shore Jillian Skinner LIB v GRN23.2 points
Bathurst Paul Toole NAT23.7 points
Terrigal Chris Hartcher 6 LIB24.2 points
Myall Lakes Stephen Bromhead NAT v IND24.9 points
Epping Greg Smith LIB25.2 points
Cronulla Mark Speakman LIB25.6 points
Lane Cove Anthony Roberts LIB v GRN25.7 points
Ryde Victor Dominello LIB25.7 points
Vaucluse Gabrielle Upton LIB v GRN26.1 points
Baulkham Hills David Elliott LIB26.4 points
Hornsby Matt Kean LIB26.5 points
Goulburn Pru Goward LIB26.6 points
Albury Greg Aplin LIB26.9 points
Manly Mike Baird LIB v GRN27.0 points
Coffs Harbour Andrew Fraser NAT27.2 points
Murray-Darling John Williams NAT27.2 points
Wagga Wagga Daryl Maguire LIB27.8 points
Pittwater Rob Stokes LIB v GRN28.0 points
Willoughby Gladys Berejiklian LIB v GRN28.1 points
Wakehurst Brad Hazzard LIB v GRN28.5 points
Port Macquarie Leslie Williams NAT28.8 points
Oxley Andrew Stoner NAT v GRN28.8 points
Cootamundra Katrina Hodgkinson   [2] NAT30.3 points
Castle Hill Dominic Perrottet LIB30.8 points
Northern Tablelands Adam Marshall 4 NAT31.0 points
Dubbo Troy Grant NAT31.3 points
Ku-ring-gai Barry O'Farrell LIB v GRN31.3 points
Barwon Kevin Humphries NAT32.0 points
Davidson Jonathan O'Dea LIB v GRN33.4 points
Hawkesbury Ray Williams LIB34.7 points
Labor seats
Marginal
Marrickville Carmel Tebbutt ALP v GRN0.9 points
Wollongong Noreen Hay ALP v IND1.0 points
Maroubra Michael Daley ALP1.6 points
Fairfield Guy Zangari ALP1.7 points
Kogarah Cherie Burton ALP1.9 points
Cabramatta Nick Lalich ALP2.1 points
Blacktown John Robertson ALP3.7 points
Keira Ryan Park ALP3.9 points
Cessnock Clayton Barr ALP4.4 points
Miranda Barry Collier 5 ALP5.2 points
Fairly safe
Wallsend Sonia Hornery ALP6.6 points
Mount Druitt Richard Amery ALP6.7 points
Lakemba Robert Furolo ALP7.0 points
Canterbury Linda Burney ALP8.3 points
Auburn Barbara Perry ALP8.5 points
Shellharbour Anna Watson ALP8.6 points
Newcastle Tim Crakanthorp ALP8.7 points
Safe
Bankstown Tania Mihailuk ALP10.3 points
Liverpool Paul Lynch ALP14.7 points
Heffron Ron Hoenig 2 ALP v GRN20.0 points
Charlestown Jodie Harrison 7 ALP v GRN20.6 points
Safe
Independent & other seats
Balmain Jamie Parker GRN v LIB3.5 points
Newtown Newly created electorateGRN v ALP4.4 points
Sydney Alex Greenwich 3 IND v LIB13.7 points
Lake Macquarie Greg Piper IND v LIB14.9 points
  1. ^ Member for Clarence, Steve Cansdell, resigned on 16 September 2011. He was succeeded by Chris Gulaptis at the 2011 Clarence state by-election.
  2. ^ Member for Heffron, Kristina Keneally, resigned on 29 June 2012. She was succeeded by Ron Hoenig at the 2012 Heffron state by-election.
  3. ^ Member for Sydney, Clover Moore, was forced to resign on 20 September 2012. She was succeeded by Alex Greenwich at the 2012 Sydney state by-election.
  4. ^ Member for Northern Tablelands, Richard Torbay, resigned on 20 March 2013. He was succeeded by Adam Marshall at the 2013 Northern Tablelands state by-election.
  5. ^ Member for Miranda, Graham Annesley, resigned on 28 August 2013. He was succeeded by Barry Collier at the 2013 Miranda state by-election.
  6. ^ Member for Wyong, Darren Webber, Member for The Entrance, Chris Spence and Member for Terrigal, Chris Hartcher were suspended for the Liberal Party due to investigations undertaken by the ICAC
  7. ^ Member for Charlestown, Andrew Cornwell, resigned with immediate effect in August 2014. He was succeeded by Jodie Harrison at the 2014 Charlestown state by-election.
  8. ^ As a result of a redistribution, the ALP-held seat of Macquarie Fields becomes notionally Liberal. ALP-held Toongabbie is replaced by the notionally Liberal electorate of Seven Hills. [3]

Legislative Council

Current balance

PartySeats heldCurrent 42-seat Council
2011 Now
Labor Party 1414                     
Liberal Party 1210                     
National Party 77                     
The Greens 55                     
Shooters and Fishers Party 22                     
Christian Democratic Party 22                     
Independents 02 [4]                      

References

  1. ↑ "Pendulum - New South Wales Votes - NSW Election 2015 (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)".
  2. ↑ "2013 New South Wales Redistribution - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)".
  3. ↑ "2013 New South Wales Redistribution - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)".
  4. ↑ "NSW Police Minister Mike Gallacher resigns over alleged donation scam raised at ICAC hearing | The Australian". Archived from the original on 2 May 2014.
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