Southwestern North American megadrought

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Lake Oroville, the second-largest reservoir in California, fell to a record 24% of capacity in summer 2021. Boats on Lake Oroville during the 2021 drought.jpg
Lake Oroville, the second-largest reservoir in California, fell to a record 24% of capacity in summer 2021.
The drought that began in 1276 is hypothesized to have caused the abandonment of Cliff Palace and other Ancestral Puebloans settlements at the end of the Pueblo III Period. Cliff Palace , Mesa Verde Nartional Park, CO, USA - panoramio (9).jpg
The drought that began in 1276 is hypothesized to have caused the abandonment of Cliff Palace and other Ancestral Puebloans settlements at the end of the Pueblo III Period.
Modeled soil moisture changes at the end of the 21st century under three greenhouse gas emissions scenarios Soil moisture changes in the U.S. southwest in the late 21th century.jpg
Modeled soil moisture changes at the end of the 21st century under three greenhouse gas emissions scenarios
Drought area in the United States Drought area in the United States.svg
Drought area in the United States
Drought area in California Drought area in California.svg
Drought area in California
A typical dry lakebed is seen in California, which is experiencing its worst megadrought in 1,200 years, and is therefore water rationing. California Drought Dry Lakebed 2009.jpg
A typical dry lakebed is seen in California, which is experiencing its worst megadrought in 1,200 years, and is therefore water rationing.

The southwestern North American megadrought is an ongoing megadrought in the southwestern region of North America that began in 2000. At least 24 years in length, the drought is the driest multi-decade period the region has seen since at least 800 CE. The megadrought has prompted the declaration of a water shortage at Lake Mead, the largest reservoir in the United States. Climate change models project drier conditions in the region through the end of the 21st century, though climate change mitigation may avoid the most extreme impacts.

Contents

Furthermore, global La Niña meteorological events are generally associated with drier and hotter conditions and further exacerbation of droughts in California and the Southwestern United States and to some extent Southeastern United States. Meteorological scientists have observed that La Niñas have become more frequent over time. [2]

Background

The southwestern region of North America (SWNA) is defined as the areas between 30 and 40 degrees North and 105- and 125-degrees West, comprising areas within Northern Mexico and the Southwestern United States. This area is roughly bounded by central Chihuahua to the southeast, the northwest coast of Baja California to the southwest, the Northern California coast to the northwest, and northcentral Colorado to the northeast. This area includes much of the Basin and Range Province, which contains the four deserts on the continent: the Chihuahuan Desert, the Sonoran Desert, the Mojave Desert, and the Great Basin Desert, as well as the Colorado Plateau, which is largely high desert.

Megadroughts, a term used to describe periods of multidecadal drought, are a recurring feature of the North American Southwest over the past millennium. [3] For example, droughts lasting at least a decade occurred in Texas in each century of the past millennium. [4] Researchers used tree ring chronologies to reconstruct summer soil moisture and snow water equivalents back to 800 CE. This allowed the identification of 40 SWNA drought events of at least 19-years duration. Of these, four megadroughts were 0.25 standard deviations drier than any experienced in the 20th century: 863–884, 1130–1151, 1276–1297, and 1571–1592. [5] The droughts of the twelfth and thirteenth centuries bracketed the Ancestral Puebloans' Pueblo III Period, with the thirteenth century drought coinciding with the abandonment of Mesa Verde, Chaco Canyon, and other settlements in the Four Corners region. [6] [7] The sixteenth century megadrought may be associated with the 1576 cocoliztli epidemic in New Spain. [8]

Climate change

The megadrought that began in 2000 was preceded by the wettest period in at least 1200 years. From 1980 to 1998, climate models begin projecting increased decadal precipitation swings in the SWNA starting in the latter half of the twentieth century as a result of climate change, but with an overall drying trend as a result of warming. Models indicate that the years 2000–2018 would have trended towards megadrought conditions regardless of climate change, with a predicted severity of the 11th worst period of drought since 800. However, anthropogenic warming pushed conditions into a severe megadrought. [5] From 2000 to 2021, mean annual precipitation in the region was 8.3% below the 1950–1999 average and the temperature was 0.91 °C above average. The megadrought that began in 2000 was the driest 22-year period since at least 800 and, if it persists through 2022, will match the duration of the severe late-1500s megadrought. Both 2002 and 2021 were drier than any of the previous nearly 300 years and were, respectively, the 11th and 12th driest years between 800 and 2021. [9]

The drought is largely driven by temperature, which increases the rate of evaporation, with some contribution from the lack of precipitation. The several wet years since 2000 were not sufficient to end the drought. Researchers calculated that without climate change-induced evaporation, the precipitation in 2005 would have broken the drought. While monsoon rains in the desert Southwest in mid-2021 and heavy rain and snow in California in late 2021 had raised hope of ending the drought, January 2022 was characterized by record dry conditions across much of the West. [10] Researchers noted that even in wet years in the Colorado River watershed, water from melting snows is soaked up by dry soils before it can reach the river. [11]

Throughout history, California has experienced many droughts, such as 1841, 1864, 1924, 1928–1935, 1947–1950, 1959–1960, 1976–1977, 1986–1992, 2006–2010, 2011–2017, 2018, and 2020- [12] [13] 2021. Precipitation in California is limited to a single, fairly short wet season, with the vast majority of rain and snowfall occurring in the winter months across the state. This delicate balance means that a dry rainy season can have lasting consequences. California is the most populous state and largest agricultural producer in the United States, and as such, drought in California can have a severe economic as well as environmental impact. The historical and ongoing droughts in California are caused by lack of rainfall (or snowfall), higher average temperatures, and drier air masses in the atmosphere. This leads to less water availability in the natural environment and in snowpack, rivers, and reservoirs for human use; these water shortages can have major impacts on agriculture and other water-intensive land uses.

The 2017 Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) noted that, under the worst-case scenario of RCP8.5, the annual average temperature of the Southwestern United States was projected to increase 8.6 °F (4.8 °C) by 2100. The southern Southwest could receive 45 additional days per year above 90 °F (32 °C). NCA4 noted that higher temperatures increased the probability of both droughts and megadroughts in the region. [14]

Deforestation in the Tropical Rainforests

In 2013 a group of scientists from the Princeton University published a study suggesting that total deforestation of the Amazon rainforest can strongly exacerbate drought conditions in the western states of the USA. According to the study "an Amazon stripped bare could mean 20 percent less rain for the coastal Northwest and a 50 percent reduction in the Sierra Nevada snowpack, a crucial source of water for cities and farms in California." Generally, the air in western USA from December to February will be drier. [15] [16]

Later studies found that "destruction of tropical forests is disrupting the movement of water in the atmosphere, causing major shifts in precipitation that could lead to drought in key agricultural areas in China, India, and the U.S. Midwest. ” Those include the 3 main tropical rainforest: Amazon, Congo, South-East Asia. 50% of the rain in the Midwest come from water evaporating from the land and the Amazon Rainforest probably providing part of it. [17]

Effects

Elephant Butte Reservoir Panorama.jpg
"Bathtub ring" at Elephant Butte Reservoir on the Rio Grande, the largest reservoir in the state of New Mexico, 2005

From 2012 to 2015, the Central Valley and South Coast of California experienced dryness that was unprecedented in the instrumental record going back to 1896 and, when compared to the paleoclimate record, was the driest since at least the later sixteenth century. Some areas lost more than two years of moisture from their soils during this period. Recovery to pre-2012 soil moisture levels in the most affected areas was predicted to require several decades of average rainfall. Even without increasing temperatures, predicted low precipitation would be sufficient to produce unprecedented dry conditions, but with higher temperatures could create megadroughts as not seen since medieval times. [18] [19]

Drought on Lake Mead (11171485533).jpg
Boat showing scale, 2010
Water intake towers at Hoover Dam.jpg
Hoover Dam intake towers, 2021
The "bathtub ring" along Lake Mead indicates the drop from historical water levels

The reduced water supplies along the Mexican-American border area have caused tensions. The 1944 water treaty that is administered by the International Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC) divides the waters of 450,000 square miles (1,200,000 km2) the Colorado River and Rio Grande basins between the two countries. However, the 1940s were a period of abnormally high precipitation; this built-in administrative deficit for subsequent years, coupled with a twentyfold increase in the population along the border, climate change, and aging water infrastructure means that there is not enough water to meet regional demand. [20] In 2003, Mexican ambassador Alberto Szekely criticized what he saw as a focus on acts of political will to resolve water disputes and a failure to recognize that the fundamental issue was a lack of sufficient water and insufficient mechanisms for sustainable management through the IBWC. [21] On 8 September 2020, thousands of Mexican farmers in Chihuahua, fearing for their own livelihoods, took control of the La Boquilla Dam to stop Mexican Federal authorities from releasing reservoir waters to the Rio Grande. [22] Later that month, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott asked the Federal government to intervene to force the release of Mexican waters from the Rio Conchos that would be used by farmers in South Texas. [23]

In March 2021, the New Mexico Interstate Stream Commission took the unprecedented step of asking farmers along the Rio Grande and Rio Chama not to farm; while agriculture uses 76% of water withdrawals in the state, it makes up 3% of the state GDP. [24] In August 2021, the United States Bureau of Reclamation declared a water shortage at Lake Mead for the first time in its history. This followed a forecast that, by the end of 2021, Lake Mead would be reduced to a level not seen since the building of the Hoover Dam in the 1930s. Lake Mead is one of the main reservoirs of the Colorado River and the declaration triggers cuts to the water supply for farmers in Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico. Without an alleviation of the drought conditions, The New York Times stated that further cuts affecting the 40 million people who rely upon the Colorado River for water were likely. It was anticipated that the cuts would prompt some farmers to increase pumping of limited groundwater supplies. [11] In August 2021, the Edward Hyatt Power Plant, which provides hydroelectric power to up to 800,000 homes in California, was forced to shut down for the first time after waters at Lake Oroville fell to 24% of capacity, a historic low. [25] In February 2022, the Bureau of Reclamation released projections for Lake Powell, the second largest artificial reservoir in the United States; the lower range of forecasts would result in a water level by the end of 2022 that would prohibit hydroelectric generation at the Glen Canyon Dam, which provides enough power for 400,000 homes. [26] In 2023, the drought situation on the Colorado River remains dire. Some states that rely on the river for water supplies have been required by the US Bureau of Reclamation to reduce their annual allocations. Arizona saw the steepest cuts, losing nearly 20 percent of its annual allocation. [27]

A 2021 study noted that increased drought conditions were now inevitable for the region, but that the most extreme modeled effects can still be avoided by climate change mitigation. However, climate change adaptation to the drier conditions will be needed. [28] [29] Dave D. White of Arizona State University, the lead author of the Southwest Chapter of the Fifth National Climate Assessment to be published in 2023, called for "bold solutions that match the scale of the challenges," including agricultural water conservation, coastal water desalination, technology innovations, and sustainable water management. [30] The Santa Fe New Mexican called for New Mexico to learn from the driest counties how to conserve water and start preparing for a drier and hotter future. [31]

Importation of water from the Missouri River has also been proposed. [32]

Peer-reviewed studies indicate that storing water in Lake Mead rather than in Lake Powell would yield a savings of 300,000 acre feet of water or more per year, leading to calls by environmentalists to drain Lake Powell and restore Glen Canyon to its natural, free-flowing state. [33] [34] [35]

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Drought</span> Period with less precipitation than normal

A drought is a period of drier-than-normal conditions. A drought can last for days, months or years. Drought often has large impacts on the ecosystems and agriculture of affected regions, and causes harm to the local economy. Annual dry seasons in the tropics significantly increase the chances of a drought developing, with subsequent increased wildfire risks. Heat waves can significantly worsen drought conditions by increasing evapotranspiration. This dries out forests and other vegetation, and increases the amount of fuel for wildfires.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Central Valley (California)</span> Flat valley that dominates central California

The Central Valley is a broad, elongated, flat valley that dominates the interior of California. It is 40–60 mi (60–100 km) wide and runs approximately 450 mi (720 km) from north-northwest to south-southeast, inland from and parallel to the Pacific coast of the state. It covers approximately 18,000 sq mi (47,000 km2), about 11% of California's land area. The valley is bounded by the Coast Ranges to the west and the Sierra Nevada to the east.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Colorado River</span> Major river in the western United States and Mexico

The Colorado River is one of the principal rivers in the Southwestern United States and in northern Mexico. The 1,450-mile-long (2,330 km) river, the 5th longest in the United States, drains an expansive, arid watershed that encompasses parts of seven U.S. states and two Mexican states. The name Colorado derives from the Spanish language for "colored reddish" due to its heavy silt load. Starting in the central Rocky Mountains of Colorado, it flows generally southwest across the Colorado Plateau and through the Grand Canyon before reaching Lake Mead on the Arizona–Nevada border, where it turns south toward the international border. After entering Mexico, the Colorado approaches the mostly dry Colorado River Delta at the tip of the Gulf of California between Baja California and Sonora.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Lake Mead</span> Reservoir on the Colorado River in Arizona and Nevada

Lake Mead is a reservoir formed by the Hoover Dam on the Colorado River in the Southwestern United States. It is located in the states of Nevada and Arizona, 24 mi (39 km) east of Las Vegas. It is the largest reservoir in the US in terms of water capacity. Lake Mead provides water to the states of Arizona, California, and Nevada as well as some of Mexico, providing sustenance to nearly 20 million people and large areas of farmland.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Colorado River Compact</span> US interstate water allocation agreement

The Colorado River Compact is a 1922 agreement that regulates water distribution among seven states in the southwestern United States. The contract is about the area within the drainage basin of the Colorado River.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Drought in Australia</span> Rainfall deficiency in Australia

Drought in Australia is defined by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology as rainfall over period greater than three-months being in the lowest decile of what has been recorded for that region in the past. This definition takes into account that drought is a relative term and rainfall deficiencies need to be compared to typical rainfall patterns including seasonal variations. Specifically, drought in Australia is defined in relation to a rainfall deficiency of pastoral leases and is determined by decile analysis applied to a certain area. Note that this definition uses rainfall only because long-term records are widely available across most of Australia. However, it does not take into account other variables that might be important for establishing surface water balance, such as evaporation and condensation.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">United States rainfall climatology</span> Characteristics of weather in U.S.

The characteristics of United States rainfall climatology differ significantly across the United States and those under United States sovereignty. Summer and early fall bring brief, but frequent thundershowers and tropical cyclones which create a wet summer and drier winter in the eastern Gulf and lower East Coast. During the winter, and spring, Pacific storm systems bring Hawaii and the western United States most of their precipitation. Low pressure systems moving up the East Coast and through the Great Lakes, bring cold season precipitation to from the Midwest to New England, as well as Great Salt Lake. The snow to liquid ratio across the contiguous United States averages 13:1, meaning 13 inches (330 mm) of snow melts down to 1 inch (25 mm) of water.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate of the United States</span>

The climate of the United States varies due to changes in latitude, and a range of geographic features, including mountains and deserts. Generally, on the mainland, the climate of the U.S. becomes warmer the further south one travels, and drier the further west, until one reaches the West Coast.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Geography of Arizona</span>

Arizona is a landlocked state situated in the southwestern region of the United States of America. It has a vast and diverse geography famous for its deep canyons, high- and low-elevation deserts, numerous natural rock formations, and volcanic mountain ranges. Arizona shares land borders with Utah to the north, the Mexican state of Sonora to the south, New Mexico to the east, and Nevada to the northwest, as well as water borders with California and the Mexican state of Baja California to the southwest along the Colorado River. Arizona is also one of the Four Corners states and is diagonally adjacent to Colorado.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Droughts in the United States</span>

The United States' contiguous western and especially southwestern region has experienced widespread drought since about year 2000. Below normal precipitation leads to drought, and is caused by an above average persistence of high pressure over the affected area. Changes in the track of extratropical cyclones, which can occur during climate cycles such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, as well as the North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, modulate which areas are more prone to drought. Increased drought frequency and severity is also expected to be one of the effects of global warming.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change in Nevada</span> Climate change in the US state of Nevada

Climate change in Nevada has been measured over the last century, with the average temperature in Elko, Nevada increasing by 0.6 °F (0.33 °C), and precipitation increasing by up to 20% in many parts of the state. These past trends may or may not continue into the future.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Megadrought</span> Prolonged drought lasting two decades or longer

A megadrought is an exceptionally severe drought, lasting for many years and covering a wide area.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Droughts in California</span> Historical and ongoing droughts in California

The historical and ongoing droughts in California result from various complex meteorological phenomena, some of which are not fully understood by scientists.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change in Arizona</span> Climate change in the US state of Arizona

Climate change in Arizona encompasses the effects of climate change, attributed to man-made increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, in the U.S. state of Arizona.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change in New Mexico</span> Climate change in the US state of New Mexico

Climate change in New Mexico encompasses the effects of climate change, attributed to man-made increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, in the U.S. state of New Mexico.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020–2023 North American drought</span> Severe drought impacting Canada, Mexico and the United States since 2020

A drought developed in the Western, Midwestern, and Northeastern United States in the summer of 2020. Similar conditions started in other states in August 2020, including Iowa, Nebraska and certain parts of Wisconsin and Minnesota. At the same time, more than 90% of Utah, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico were in some level of drought. Also in drought conditions were Wyoming, Oregon and Arizona.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 California wildfires</span> An overview of major wildfires in California during the year 2022

The 2022 California wildfire season was a series of wildfires throughout the U.S. state of California. By the end of the year, a total of 7,667 fires had been recorded, totaling approximately 363,939 acres across the state. Wildfires killed nine people in California in 2022, destroyed 772 structures, and damaged another 104. The 2022 season followed the 2020 and 2021 California wildfire seasons, which had the highest and second-highest (respectively) numbers of acres burned in the historical record, with a sharp drop in acreage burned.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Chilean water crisis</span>

The Chilean water crisis is a period of extreme water scarcity and drought in Chile that began in 2010 in response to climate change, agricultural practices and the existing policies established in the early 1980s. It is the longest lasting drought experienced in Chile in over 700 to 1,000 years.

2020s in climate history refers to major events pertaining to the climate, this includes extreme weather, as well as new scientific phenomena and occurrences which pertain to the climate. This article will be structured by category of data, and then chronologically within those broader sections.

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