In the National Football League (NFL), "going from worst-to-first" refers to a team winning its division the season following a last-place divisional finish. The inverse scenario, in which a team goes from first-to-worst in their division, has also been observed. The NFL's current division alignment has been in place since the 2002 season and sees both conferences–the American Football Conference (AFC) and National Football Conference (NFC)–have four divisions each, for a total of eight in the league. These conferences are mostly based on geography and have names to reflect this (i.e. the AFC East and NFC North).
The merger brought along with it the NFL's modern divisional structure, with the 1970 season being the first following the merger.[2] That season saw two teams accomplish the worst-to-first feat: the Cincinnati Bengals and the San Francisco 49ers. The latter went from a last-place finish in the NFL Coastal Division to winning its spiritual successor, the NFC West.[3] The Bengals, however, finished last in the AFL Western division in 1969 but were not a member of the post-merger AFC West in 1970. Instead, the Bengals were placed in the AFC Central division, which they won.[4] The Bengals also have the distinction of having the most worst-to-first seasons, with five (1970, 1981, 1988, 1990, and 2021).
Beginning with the 2002 season, the league realigned its division structure to have four each in both conferences.[5][6] Since the league's realignment in 2002, most seasons have seen at least one team go from worst-to-first.[6][7] The 2002, 2014, 2019, and 2024 seasons featured no such teams. Two teams have accomplished the feat in the same season on multiple occasions, with 2018 being the most recent occurrence of this. This also happened three times prior to the 2002 realignment (1970, 1999, and 2001).
From 2003–2006, all four NFC South teams traded worst-to-first seasons: the Carolina Panthers achieved the feat in 2003, with the Atlanta Falcons, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and New Orleans Saints replicating the feat in 2004, 2005, and 2006, respectively.[8] The Buccaneers went worst-to-first again in 2007, making the division have a five consecutive instances of a worst-to-first team.[8]
NFL schedule makers create the regular season schedule with a team's divisional ranking from the previous season in mind.[10] As a result, last-place divisional finishers will play a "last-place schedule", which can positively impact their ability to improve their record.[11]
Due to the frequency of the worst-to-first feat being accomplished, particularly since the 2002 realignment, NFL media publications and sportswriters often speculate during NFL off-seasons about which last-place divisional finishers will produce turn-around seasons.[12][13] These off-season publications often rank the eight divisions' last-place finishers in terms of most likely to go from worst-to-first.[9][14] These sportswriters have also noted the phenomenon as contributing to the NFL's parity and fan optimism, citing worst-to-first instances as examples of quick turnarounds being able to materialize.[6][9][15] The feat in the NFL is notably more common than in the other major North American sports leagues; according to Elias Sports Bureau, two teams achieving the worst-to-first feat in their divisions in consecutive seasons "has never happened in MLB, NBA, or the NHL".[16]
The inverse scenario, in which a division champion finishes in last place the following season, has also been observed by NFL media.[31][32] The Cincinnati Bengals who went from worst-to-first in 1970 then achieved the opposite feat the following season, as the 1971 Bengals squad finished in last place in their division.[33] The Bengals franchise also has gone from first-to-worst a league-leading five times (1971, 1989, 1991, 2010, and 2023).[34] The most recent instance of a team going from first-to-worst is the 2024 San Francisco 49ers, who won the NFC West in 2023, before finishing 6–11 in 2024.[35] The 49ers had several key players sustain injuries that season,[35] which is a common reason for teams documented to have considerable season-to-season decline in success; starters opting to retire or sign with another team in free agency have also been noted reasons for past first-to-worst falloffs.[31][36]
Maule, Tex (December 23, 1968). "Countdown to a Title". Sports Illustrated. Retrieved January 20, 2025. The Minnesota Vikings, playing with one ear cocked for reports from Chicago's Wrigley Field, won the Central Division championship of the National Football League
1 2 "Cincinnati Bengals History | 1970". Cincinnati Bengals. Retrieved January 20, 2025. The Bengals started horribly on the field, losing six of their first seven games, but they roared to life in winning their last seven and claimed the first AFC Central title at 8-6, by a game over Cleveland.
↑ "Vikings Make Playoffs and Bump Bengals". Associated Press. December 26, 1989. Retrieved January 20, 2025– via The New York Times. The Minnesota Vikings won the National Football Conference Central title tonight, beating Cincinnati, 29-21, [...] The victory gave Minnesota its first division title since 1980 and dropped the Bengals to 8-8 and into last place in the A.F.C. Central.
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