Worst-to-First

Last updated

In the National Football League (NFL), "going from worst-to-first" refers to a team winning its division the season following a last-place divisional finish. The inverse scenario, in which a team goes from first-to-worst in their division, has also been observed. The NFL's current division alignment has been in place since the 2002 season and sees both conferences–the American Football Conference (AFC) and National Football Conference (NFC)–have four divisions each, for a total of eight in the league. These conferences are mostly based on geography and have names to reflect this (i.e. the AFC East and NFC North).

Contents

History

The Cincinnati Bengals have gone from worst-to-first a record five times. Cincinnati Bengals (51154484352).jpg
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone from worst-to-first a record five times.

After finishing last in the Central Division of the NFL's Western Conference in 1967, the Minnesota Vikings won the division title the following season. [1] Their worst-to-first turnaround in 1968 makes them hold the distinction of being the only team to do so prior to the league's merger with the American Football League (AFL).

The merger brought along with it the NFL's modern divisional structure, with the 1970 season being the first following the merger. [2] That season saw two teams accomplish the worst-to-first feat: the Cincinnati Bengals and the San Francisco 49ers. The latter went from a last-place finish in the NFL Coastal Division to winning its spiritual successor, the NFC West. [3] The Bengals, however, finished last in the AFL Western division in 1969 but were not a member of the post-merger AFC West in 1970. Instead, the Bengals were placed in the AFC Central division, which they won. [4] The Bengals also have the distinction of having the most worst-to-first seasons, with five (1970, 1981, 1988, 1990, and 2021).

Beginning with the 2002 season, the league realigned its division structure to have four each in both conferences. [5] [6] Since the league's realignment in 2002, most seasons have seen at least one team go from worst-to-first. [6] [7] The 2002, 2014, 2019, and 2024 seasons featured no such teams. Two teams have accomplished the feat in the same season on multiple occasions, with 2018 being the most recent occurrence of this. This also happened three times prior to the 2002 realignment (1970, 1999, and 2001).

From 2003–2006, all four NFC South teams traded worst-to-first seasons: the Carolina Panthers achieved the feat in 2003, with the Atlanta Falcons, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and New Orleans Saints replicating the feat in 2004, 2005, and 2006, respectively. [8] The Buccaneers went worst-to-first again in 2007, making the division have a five consecutive instances of a worst-to-first team. [8]

Four worst-to-first teams have ultimately won the Super Bowl: the 1999 St. Louis Rams, the 2001 New England Patriots, the 2009 New Orleans Saints, and the 2017 Philadelphia Eagles. [8] [9] Four other teams to achieve a worst-to-first season also made Super Bowl appearances, albeit in losing efforts: three of the aforementioned Bengals teams (1981, 1988, 2021), and the 2003 Carolina Panthers.

Analysis

NFL schedule makers create the regular season schedule with a team's divisional ranking from the previous season in mind. [10] As a result, last-place divisional finishers will play a "last-place schedule", which can positively impact their ability to improve their record. [11]

Due to the frequency of the worst-to-first feat being accomplished, particularly since the 2002 realignment, NFL media publications and sportswriters often speculate during NFL off-seasons about which last-place divisional finishers will produce turn-around seasons. [12] [13] These off-season publications often rank the eight divisions' last-place finishers in terms of most likely to go from worst-to-first. [9] [14] These sportswriters have also noted the phenomenon as contributing to the NFL's parity and fan optimism, citing worst-to-first instances as examples of quick turnarounds being able to materialize. [6] [9] [15] The feat in the NFL is notably more common than in the other major North American sports leagues; according to Elias Sports Bureau, two teams achieving the worst-to-first feat in their divisions in consecutive seasons "has never happened in MLB, NBA, or the NHL". [16]

List of teams to go from worst-to-first

Legend
†Won the Super Bowl
Teams to go from worst-to-first
SeasonDivisionTeamRecordPlayoff resultPrevious finishRef.
Pre-merger
1968 NFL Central Minnesota Vikings 8–6Lost in Western Conference championship game 4th, 3–8–3 [1]
Post-merger
1970 AFC Central Cincinnati Bengals 8–6Lost in AFC Divisional round 5th, 4–9–1 [a] [4]
NFC West San Francisco 49ers 10–3–1Lost in NFC Championship Game 4th, 4–8–2 [b] [3]
1972 NFC Central Green Bay Packers 10–4Lost in NFC Divisional round 4th, 4–8–2 [2]
1975 AFC East Baltimore Colts 10–4Lost in AFC Divisional round 5th, 2–12 [17]
1979 NFC Central Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10–6Lost in NFC Championship Game 5th, 5–11 [2]
1981 AFC Central Cincinnati Bengals 12–4Lost in Super Bowl XVI 4th, 6–10
1987 AFC East Indianapolis Colts 9–6Lost in NFC Divisional round 5th, 3–13 [18]
1988 AFC Central Cincinnati Bengals 12–4Lost in Super Bowl XXIII 4th, 4–11 [19]
1990 AFC Central Cincinnati Bengals 9–7Lost in AFC Divisional round 4th, 8–8 [20]
1991 AFC West Denver Broncos 12–4Lost in AFC Championship Game 5th, 5–11 [21]
1992 AFC West San Diego Chargers 11–5Lost in AFC Divisional round 5th, 4–12 [2]
1993 NFC Central Detroit Lions 10–6Lost in NFC Wild Card round 5th, 5–11 [22]
1997 NFC East New York Giants 10–5–1Lost in NFC Wild Card round 5th, 6–10 [23]
1999 AFC East Indianapolis Colts 13–3Lost in AFC Divisional round 5th, 3–13 [24]
NFC West St. Louis Rams 13–3Won Super Bowl XXXIV†5th, 4–12 [9]
2000 NFC West New Orleans Saints 10–6Lost in NFC Divisional round 5th, 3–13 [25]
2001 AFC East New England Patriots 11–5Won Super Bowl XXXVI†5th, 5–11 [9]
NFC Central Chicago Bears 13–3Lost in NFC Divisional round 5th, 5–11 [26]
Since 2002 realignment
2003 AFC West Kansas City Chiefs 13–3Lost in AFC Divisional round 4th, 8–8 [27]
NFC South Carolina Panthers 11–5Lost in Super Bowl XXXVIII 4th, 7–9 [8]
2004 AFC West San Diego Chargers 12–4Lost in AFC Wild Card round 4th, 4–12
NFC South Atlanta Falcons 11–5Lost in NFC Championship Game 4th, 5–11
2005 NFC North Chicago Bears 11–5Lost in NFC Divisional round 4th, 5–11 [26]
NFC South Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11–5Lost in NFC Wild Card round 4th, 5–11 [8]
2006 NFC East Philadelphia Eagles 10–6Lost in NFC Divisional round 4th, 6–10
NFC South New Orleans Saints 10–6Lost in NFC Championship Game 4th, 3–13
2007 NFC South Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9–7Lost in NFC Wild Card round 4th, 4–12
2008 AFC East Miami Dolphins 11–5Lost in AFC Wild Card round 4th, 1–15 [28]
2009 NFC South New Orleans Saints 13–3Won Super Bowl XLIV†4th, 8–8 [9]
2010 AFC West Kansas City Chiefs 10–6Lost in AFC Wild Card round 4th, 4–12 [27]
2011 AFC West Denver Broncos 8–8Lost in AFC Divisional round 4th, 4–12 [29]
2012 NFC East Washington Redskins 10–6Lost in NFC Wild Card round 4th, 5–11 [8]
2013 NFC East Philadelphia Eagles 10–6Lost in NFC Wild Card round 4th, 4–12
2015 NFC East Washington Redskins 9–7Lost in NFC Wild Card round 4th, 4–12
2016 NFC East Dallas Cowboys 13–3Lost in NFC Divisional round 4th, 4–12
2017 AFC South Jacksonville Jaguars 10–6Lost in AFC Championship Game 4th, 3–13 [16]
NFC East Philadelphia Eagles 13–3Won Super Bowl LII†4th, 7–9
2018 AFC South Houston Texans 12–4Lost in AFC Divisional round 4th, 4–12
NFC North Chicago Bears 12–4Lost in NFC Wild Card round 4th, 5–11 [30]
2020 NFC East Washington Football Team 7–9Lost in NFC Wild Card round 4th, 3–13 [9]
2021 AFC North Cincinnati Bengals 10–7Lost in Super Bowl LVI 4th, 4–11–1 [30]
2022 AFC South Jacksonville Jaguars 9–8Lost in AFC Divisional round 4th, 3–14 [9]
2023 AFC South Houston Texans 10–7Lost in AFC Divisional round 4th, 3–13–1 [7]

First-to-Worst

The inverse scenario, in which a division champion finishes in last place the following season, has also been observed by NFL media. [31] [32] The Cincinnati Bengals who went from worst-to-first in 1970 then achieved the opposite feat the following season, as the 1971 Bengals squad finished in last place in their division. [33] The Bengals franchise also has gone from first-to-worst a league-leading five times (1971, 1989, 1991, 2010, and 2023). [34] The most recent instance of a team going from first-to-worst is the 2024 San Francisco 49ers, who won the NFC West in 2023, before finishing 6–11 in 2024. [35] The 49ers had several key players sustain injuries that season, [35] which is a common reason for teams documented to have considerable season-to-season decline in success; starters opting to retire or sign with another team in free agency have also been noted reasons for past first-to-worst falloffs. [31] [36]

In other sports

The phenomenon has been observed in other sports, such as basketball. The Detroit Shock of the Women's National Basketball Association (WNBA) won the 2003 WNBA Finals one season after finishing with the worst record in their conference (9–23). [37] In the National Basketball Association (NBA), the Boston Celtics finished at the bottom of the Eastern Conference with a 24–58 record in the 2006–07 season. The team's acquisition of Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen in the following off-season led to a significant turnaround in 2007–08, as the team won a league-best 66 games and the 2008 NBA Finals. [37]

In Major League Baseball (MLB), the 1991 season saw both the Atlanta Braves and Minnesota Twins win their respective divisions after both teams finished in last place the previous season; the two teams then faced each other in the 1991 World Series, with the Twins emerging victorious. [37] In 2013, the Boston Red Sox won the American League (AL) East division, as well as the 2013 World Series; the season prior, they posted a 69-93 record and finished last in their division. [37]

Notes

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">American Football Conference</span> One of two conferences in the National Football League

The American Football Conference (AFC) is one of the two conferences of the National Football League (NFL), the highest level of professional American football in the United States. The AFC and its counterpart, the National Football Conference (NFC), each have 16 teams organized into four divisions. Both conferences were created as part of the 1970 merger between the National Football League, and the American Football League (AFL). All ten of the AFL teams, and three NFL teams, became members of the new AFC, with the remaining thirteen NFL teams forming the NFC. A series of league expansions and division realignments have occurred since the merger, thus making the current total of 16 teams in each conference. The current AFC champions are the Kansas City Chiefs, who defeated the Buffalo Bills in the 2024 season's AFC Championship Game for their fifth conference championship and went on to Super Bowl LIX against the Philadelphia Eagles.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Super Bowl XXIII</span> 1989 Edition of the Super Bowl

Super Bowl XXIII was an American football game between the American Football Conference (AFC) champion Cincinnati Bengals and the National Football Conference (NFC) champion San Francisco 49ers to decide the National Football League (NFL) champion for the 1988 season. The 49ers defeated the Bengals 20–16, winning their third Super Bowl. The game was played on January 22, 1989, at Joe Robbie Stadium in Miami. This was the first Super Bowl hosted in the Miami area in 10 years, and the first in Miami not held at the Orange Bowl.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">National Football Conference</span> One of two conferences in the National Football League

The National Football Conference (NFC) is a conference of the National Football League (NFL), the highest level of professional American football in the United States. The NFC and its counterpart, the American Football Conference (AFC), each have 16 teams organized into four divisions. Both conferences were created as part of the 1970 NFL merger with the rival American Football League (AFL). All ten of the former AFL teams and three NFL teams formed the AFC while the remaining thirteen NFL clubs formed the NFC. A series of league expansions and division realignments have occurred since the merger, thus making a total of 16 clubs in each conference.

Brent Michael Jones is an American former professional football player, business executive, businessman, coach, and sports analyst. As a player, he was a tight end for the San Francisco 49ers during his entire 11-year career in the National Football League (NFL) from 1987 to 1997. Jones is listed among the top players in franchise history, and helped revolutionize the concept of the pass-catching tight end.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">NFC Championship Game</span> Semifinal championship football game in the NFL

The NFC Championship Game is the annual championship game of the National Football Conference (NFC) and one of the two semifinal playoff games of the National Football League (NFL), the largest professional American football league in the world. The game is played on the last Sunday in January by the two remaining playoff teams, following the NFC postseason's first two rounds. The NFC champion then advances to face the winner of the AFC Championship Game in the Super Bowl.

The American Football Conference – Northern Division or AFC North is one of the four divisions of the American Football Conference (AFC) in the National Football League (NFL). The division was created after the NFL realigned its divisions upon expanding to 32 teams, with the 2002 NFL season marking the league's first season following this restructuring. The division consists of the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, and Pittsburgh Steelers. Prior to this realignment, these teams were members of the AFC Central Division, along with the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars.

The National Football Conference – Eastern Division or NFC East is one of the four divisions of the National Football Conference (NFC) in the National Football League (NFL). It has four members: the Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, and Washington Commanders.

The 2002 NFL season was the 83rd regular season of the National Football League (NFL).

The 2001 NFL season was the 82nd regular season of the National Football League (NFL), and the first season of the 21st century. The league permanently moved the first week of the regular season to the weekend following Labor Day. In the wake of the September 11 attacks, the NFL's week 2 games were postponed and rescheduled to the weekend of January 6 and 7, 2002. To retain the full playoff format, all playoff games, including Super Bowl XXXVI, were rescheduled one week later. The New England Patriots won the Super Bowl, defeating the St. Louis Rams 20–17 at the Louisiana Superdome.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1988 NFL season</span> 1988 National Football League season

The 1988 NFL season was the 69th regular season of the National Football League. The Cardinals relocated from St. Louis, Missouri, to the Phoenix, Arizona, area becoming the Phoenix Cardinals but remained in the NFC East division. The playoff races came down to the regular season's final week, with the Seattle Seahawks winning the AFC West by one game, and the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers winning their respective divisions in a five-way tie, with the New Orleans Saints and New York Giants losing the NFC Wild Card berth to the Los Angeles Rams on tiebreakers.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1981 NFL season</span> 1981 National Football League season

The 1981 NFL season was the 62nd regular season of the National Football League. The season ended with Super Bowl XVI when the San Francisco 49ers defeated the Cincinnati Bengals 26–21 at the Pontiac Silverdome in Michigan.

The 1976 NFL season was the 57th regular season of the National Football League. The league expanded to 28 teams with the addition of the Seattle Seahawks and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This fulfilled one of the conditions agreed to in 1966 for the 1970 AFL–NFL merger, which called for the league to expand to 28 teams by 1970 or soon thereafter.

The 1970 NFL season was the 51st regular season of the National Football League, and the first after the consummation of the AFL–NFL merger. The merged league realigned into two conferences: all ten of the American Football League (AFL) teams joined the Baltimore Colts, Cleveland Browns, and Pittsburgh Steelers to form the American Football Conference (AFC); the other thirteen NFL clubs formed the National Football Conference (NFC).

The 2010 NFL season was the 91st regular season of the National Football League (NFL) and the 45th of the Super Bowl era.

NFL playoff results is a listing of the year-by-year results of the NFL Playoff games to determine the final two teams for the championship game. The winners of those games are listed in NFL Championship Game article.
The overall franchise records are shown in the last table.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2009 NFL season</span> 2009 National Football League season

The 2009 NFL season was the 90th season in the history of the National Football League (NFL). The 50th anniversary of the original eight charter members of the American Football League was celebrated during this season.

Todd Alexander Kalis is an American former professional football player in the National Football League (NFL). He was an offensive lineman for the Minnesota Vikings (1988–1993), Pittsburgh Steelers (1994) and Cincinnati Bengals (1995).

This timeline of the National Football League (NFL) tracks the history of each of the league's 32 current franchises from the early days of the league, through its merger with the American Football League (AFL). The history of franchises that began as independent teams, or as members of the Ohio League, New York Pro Football League, and other defunct leagues are shown as well.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">49ers–Raiders rivalry</span> National Football League rivalry

The 49ers–Raiders rivalry, once commonly known as the Battle of the Bay, is a professional American football rivalry between the National Football League (NFL)'s San Francisco 49ers and Las Vegas Raiders. This rivalry is unique in that both teams are members of different conferences within the NFL and have never met in a postseason game. The rivalry stems from the proximity of Oakland and San Francisco in the northern Bay Area, and was formalised the first time the teams met after the AFL–NFL merger in the 1970 season. The geographic aspect of the rivalry ended in 2020, when the Raiders left California and relocated to Las Vegas, Nevada.

References

  1. 1 2 Maule, Tex (September 16, 1968). "Central Division: Improvement among the Lions, Bears and Vikings should make things tougher for the Packers, but not much". Sports Illustrated . Retrieved January 20, 2025. Last season the Minnesota Vikings did everything well except pass, [...] although they were surprisingly close in some of the games they lost while struggling through a 3-8-3 season to finish last in the Central Division.
  2. 1 2 3 4 Robinson, Sam (May 30, 2024). "The most significant worst-to-first NFL teams". Yardbarker . Retrieved January 15, 2025.
  3. 1 2 "49ers Standings - 1969". San Francisco 49ers . Retrieved January 20, 2025.
  4. 1 2 "Cincinnati Bengals History | 1970". Cincinnati Bengals . Retrieved January 20, 2025. The Bengals started horribly on the field, losing six of their first seven games, but they roared to life in winning their last seven and claimed the first AFC Central title at 8-6, by a game over Cleveland.
  5. ↑ "Fact or Fiction? A team has gone from last to first every season since the 2002 realignment". Pro Football Hall of Fame. November 26, 2013. Retrieved January 15, 2025.
  6. 1 2 3 Middlehurst-Schwartz, Michael (June 26, 2024). "Worst to first? Ranking 8 NFL teams' chances to jump to top of division in 2024". USA Today . Retrieved January 15, 2025.
  7. 1 2 Melendrez Stapleton, Arnie (January 12, 2024). "Worst-to-first Texans provide hope for the 18 NFL teams that didn't make the playoffs this season". Associated Press . Retrieved January 15, 2025. In 19 of the last 21 seasons, at least one team has won its division a year after finishing in last place.
  8. 1 2 3 4 5 6 NFL teams to go from worst to first in their division since 2003. NFL.com . Retrieved January 15, 2025.
  9. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Dabbundo, Anthony (August 29, 2024). "Ranking the NFL's Worst-to-First Candidates for 2024". The Ringer . Retrieved January 15, 2025.
  10. ↑ "Creating the NFL Schedule". NFL Football Operations . Retrieved January 16, 2025.
  11. ↑ Auman, Greg (May 9, 2023). "How the NFL's scheduling model can impact a team's season". Fox Sports . Retrieved January 16, 2025.
  12. ↑ "Which four NFL teams are destined to go from 'worst-to-first' this season?". Fox Sports . July 15, 2023. Retrieved January 15, 2025.
  13. ↑ Sikkema, Trevor (June 4, 2024). "NFL teams most likely to go from worst to first in their division: Bengals, Bears among top candidates". Pro Football Focus . Retrieved January 15, 2025.
  14. ↑ Holder, Matt (September 1, 2023). "Ranking Every NFL Division's Potential Worst-to-First Team Entering 2023 Season". Bleacher Report . Retrieved January 15, 2025.
  15. ↑ Patra, Kevin (May 26, 2023). "2023 NFL season: Ranking all eight candidates to go from worst to first in division races". NFL.com . Retrieved January 15, 2025.
  16. 1 2 Gordon, Grant (December 30, 2018). "Texans clinch AFC South title with win over Jaguars". NFL.com . Archived from the original on November 9, 2022.
  17. ↑ "Sports Legends Museum to co-host 1975-1977 Colts reunion". The Baltimore Sun . October 1, 2021 [January 21, 2011]. Archived from the original on January 18, 2025. Retrieved January 18, 2025.
  18. ↑ Slater, Jim (December 28, 1987). "Jumping from worst to first in one season, the..." UPI . Retrieved January 18, 2025.
  19. ↑ Stacy, Mitch (January 29, 2022). "Bengals alums reflect on 1988 'shuffle' to Super Bowl". Associated Press . Retrieved January 18, 2025.
  20. ↑ "Vikings Make Playoffs and Bump Bengals" . Associated Press. December 26, 1989. Retrieved January 20, 2025– via The New York Times. The Minnesota Vikings won the National Football Conference Central title tonight, beating Cincinnati, 29-21, [...] The victory gave Minnesota its first division title since 1980 and dropped the Bengals to 8-8 and into last place in the A.F.C. Central.
  21. ↑ O'Halloran, Ryan (September 6, 2018). "How the 1991 Denver Broncos went from worst to first". The Denver Post . Retrieved January 18, 2025.
  22. ↑ Maakaron, John (September 4, 2022). "Lions Only Went Worst-to-First Once in Franchise History". Sports Illustrated . Retrieved January 18, 2025.
  23. ↑ "GIANTS 20, COWBOYS 7". Chicago Tribune . August 11, 2021 [December 22, 1997]. Retrieved January 18, 2025.
  24. ↑ "Turnaround Record Is Set in Come-From-Behind Win". Associated Press. December 27, 1999. Retrieved January 18, 2025– via Los Angeles Times.
  25. ↑ Lapointe, Joe (December 31, 2000). "PRO FOOTBALL; Saints Thwart Rams' Rally To Post First Playoff Victory" . The New York Times . Retrieved January 18, 2025.
  26. 1 2 Mayer, Larry (April 11, 2016). "Have Bears ever gone worst-to-first?". Chicago Bears . Retrieved January 18, 2025.
  27. 1 2 Lay, Rodney (September 1, 2011). "Worst to First in the NFL: Sudden Improvement or Sudden Luck?". Bleacher Report . Retrieved January 18, 2025.
  28. ↑ Clark, Kevin (August 6, 2018). "Into the Wildcat". The Ringer . Retrieved January 20, 2025.
  29. ↑ O'Halloran, Ryan (September 7, 2018). "How the 2011 Broncos went from worst to first". The Denver Post . Retrieved January 20, 2025.
  30. 1 2 Teams that could go from worst to first in 2024. National Football League. May 15, 2024. Retrieved January 15, 2025– via YouTube.
  31. 1 2 First-to-Worst: Biggest Team Letdowns. NFL Throwback. National Football League. December 28, 2022. Retrieved January 15, 2025– via YouTube.
  32. ↑ Roling, Chris (August 31, 2016). "Teams That Have Gone First to Worst in a Hurry". Bleacher Report . Retrieved January 15, 2025.
  33. ↑ "1971 NFL Standings & Team Stats". Pro-Football-Reference.com . Retrieved January 21, 2025.
  34. ↑ "Cincinnati Bengals Team Records, Leaders, and League Ranks". Pro-Football-Reference.com . Retrieved January 21, 2025.
  35. 1 2 Lombardi, David (January 7, 2025). "'A really tough year': The 10 exact moments when the 49ers' season fell apart". The San Francisco Standard . Retrieved January 21, 2025.
  36. ↑ Bunger, Luke (January 4, 2011). "Arizona Cardinals 2010 Season in Review: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly". Bleacher Report . Retrieved January 21, 2025.
  37. 1 2 3 4 Janovitz, Scott (May 28, 2015). "The Top 10 Worst-to-First Championship Stories". Bleacher Report . Retrieved January 23, 2025.
This page is based on this Wikipedia article
Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply.
Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.