SpaceX Mars Colonization Program

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Elon Musk at the 2006 Mars Society conference. Before founding SpaceX in 2001, Musk had expressed interest in Mars missions and briefly joined the Mars Society's board of directors. Elon Musk at MSC 2006.jpg
Elon Musk at the 2006 Mars Society conference. Before founding SpaceX in 2001, Musk had expressed interest in Mars missions and briefly joined the Mars Society's board of directors.

SpaceX has stated its ambition to facilitate the colonization of Mars via the development of the Starship launch vehicle. The company states that this is necessary for the long-term survival of the human species and for the expansion of the scope of human consciousness. [1]

Contents

Elon Musk, who founded SpaceX, first presented his goal of enabling Mars colonization in 2001 as a member of the Mars Society's board of directors. In the 2000s and early 2010s, SpaceX made many vehicle concepts for Mars, including space tugs, heavy-lift launch vehicles, and Red Dragon capsules. The company's current plan was first formally proposed at the 2016 International Astronautical Congress alongside a fully-reusable launch vehicle, the Interplanetary Transport System. Since then, the launch vehicle proposal was altered and renamed to "Starship", and has been in development since. On its third test flight, it reached its desired trajectory for the first time on March 14, 2024. The company has given many estimates of dates of the first human landing on Mars; the most recent discussion of which occurred during a company all hands meeting in April 2024. [2]

SpaceX's early missions to Mars will involve small fleets of Starship spacecraft, funded by public–private partnerships. [3] The company hopes that once infrastructure is established on Mars and the launch cost is reduced further, colonization can begin. The Mars program has been criticized by some people as far-fetched, partially because of uncertainties regarding its financing [4] and because it primarily addresses transportation to Mars and not the steps that follow. George Dvorsky writing for Gizmodo characterized Musk's timeline for Martian colonization as "stupendously unreasonable". [5] For reference, Musk's timeline for the colonization of Mars involves a crewed mission as early as 2029 and the development of a self-sustaining colony by 2050. [6]

Some experts, like Robert Zubrin, support the concept due to the prevalence of water ice in the form of permafrost and glaciers on Mars, as well as other resources like carbon dioxide and nitrogen; [7] some are opposed to the concept, believing the planet's lack of both breathable air and protective magnetosphere to be unacceptable problems. [8] A common sentiment among those opposed to expanding the scope of human civilization to Mars is that humans should focus on solving the problems on Earth before advancing to extraplanetary colonization. [9]

Prior mission concepts

Mars Colonial Transporter

This section is an excerpt from SpaceX Starship design history § Mars Colonial Transporter.[ edit ]
In October 2012, the company made the first public articulation of plans to develop a fully reusable rocket system with substantially greater capabilities than SpaceX's existing Falcon 9. [10] Later in 2012, [11] the company first mentioned the Mars Colonial Transporter rocket concept in public. It was going to be able to carry 100 people or 100 t (220,000 lb) of cargo to Mars and powered by methane-fueled Raptor engines. [12] Musk referred to this new launch vehicle under the unspecified acronym "MCT", [10] revealed to stand for "Mars Colonial Transporter" in 2013, [13] which would serve the company's Mars system architecture. [14] SpaceX COO Gwynne Shotwell gave a potential payload range between 150-200 tons to low Earth orbit for the planned rocket. [10] For mars missions, the spacecraft would carry up to 100 tonnes (220,000 lb) of passengers and cargo. [15] According to SpaceX engine development head Tom Mueller, SpaceX could use nine Raptor engines on a single MCT booster or spacecraft. [16] [17] The preliminary design would be at least 10 meters (33 ft) in diameter, and was expected to have up to three cores totaling at least 27 booster engines. [14]

Red Dragon capsule

Artist's conception of two Red Dragon capsules on Mars, next to an outpost SpaceX Dragon Capsule on Mars (18053607180).jpg
Artist's conception of two Red Dragon capsules on Mars, next to an outpost

Red Dragon

Red Dragon was a 2011-2017 concept mission which would have used a modified Dragon 2 spacecraft as a low-cost Mars lander. If flown, it would have been launched on a Falcon Heavy, and land solely via the use of its SuperDraco retro-propulsion thrusters, [18] as parachutes would have required significant vehicle modifications. [19]

In 2011, SpaceX planned on proposing Red Dragon for the Discovery Mission #13, which would launch in 2022, [20] [21] [22] but it was not submitted. It was then proposed in 2014 as a low-cost way for NASA to achieve a Mars sample return by 2021. In the concept, the Red Dragon capsule would be equipped with the system needed to return samples gathered on Mars. NASA did not fund this concept.

In 2016, SpaceX planned on launching two Red Dragon vehicles [23] in 2018, [24] [25] with NASA providing technical support instead of funding. [26] However, in 2017, Red Dragon was cancelled, in favor of the much larger Starship spacecraft. [27]

Program manifest

SpaceX has stated on several occasions aspirational plans to build a crewed base on Mars for an extended surface presence, which it hopes will grow into a self-sufficient colony. [28] [29] A successful colonization, meaning an established human presence on Mars growing over many decades, would ultimately involve many more economic actors than SpaceX. [30] [31] [32]

Before any people are transported to Mars, a number of cargo missions would be undertaken first in order to transport the requisite equipment, habitats and supplies. [33] Equipment that would accompany the early groups would include "machines to produce fertilizer, methane and oxygen from Mars' atmospheric nitrogen and carbon dioxide and the planet's subsurface water ice" as well as construction materials to build transparent domes for crop growth. [34] [35]

Musk has made statements on several occasions about aspirational dates for Starship's earliest possible Mars landing, [36] including in 2022, that a mission to Mars could be no earlier than 2029. [37]

Exploration

A scene of astronauts on Mars in the 2016 IAC presentation Interplanetary Transport System (29343825184).jpg
A scene of astronauts on Mars in the 2016 IAC presentation

Musk plans for the first crewed Mars missions to have approximately 12 people, with goals to "build out and troubleshoot the propellant plant and Mars Base Alpha power system" and establish a "rudimentary base." The company plans to process resources on Mars into fuel for return journeys, [38] and use similar technologies on Earth to create carbon-neutral propellant. [39]

Tenets

As early as 2007, Elon Musk stated a personal goal of eventually enabling human exploration and settlement of Mars, [40] although his personal public interest in Mars goes back at least to 2001 at the Mars Society. [41] : 30–31  SpaceX has stated its goal is to colonize Mars to ensure the long-term survival of the human species. [4]

Launch vehicle

Starship prototype assembled and stacked at Boca Chica Starship full stack.jpg
Starship prototype assembled and stacked at Boca Chica

Starship is designed to be a fully reusable and orbital rocket, aiming to drastically reduce launch costs and maintenance between flights. [42] : 2  The rocket consists of a Super Heavy first stage booster and a Starship second stage spacecraft, [43] powered by Raptor and Raptor Vacuum engines. [44] Both stages are made from stainless steel. [45]

Methane was chosen for the Raptor engines because it is relatively cheap, produces low amount of soot as compared to other hydrocarbons, [46] and can be created on Mars from carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and hydrogen via the Sabatier reaction. [47] The engine family uses a new alloy for the main combustion chamber, allowing it to contain 300 bar (4,400 psi) of pressure, the highest of all current engines. [46] In the future, it may be mass-produced [46] and cost about $230,000 per engine or $100 per kilonewton. [48]

Starship's reusability is expected to reduce launch costs, expanding space access to more payloads and entities. [49] According to Robert Zubrin, aerospace engineer and advocate for human exploration of Mars, Starship's planned lower launch cost could make space-based economy, colonization, and mining practical. [41] : 25, 26  According to Robert Zubrin, lower cost to space may potentially make space research profitable, allowing major advancements in medicine, computers, material science, and more. [41] : 47, 48  Musk has stated that a Starship orbital launch could eventually cost $2 million, starting at $10 million within 2-3 years and dropping with time. [50]

Colonization

Artist's conception of the process of terraforming Mars Terraforming Mars transition horizontal.jpg
Artist's conception of the process of terraforming Mars

The program aims to send a million people to Mars, using a thousand Starships sent during a Mars launch window, which occurs approximately every 26 months. [51] Proposed journeys would require 80 to 150 days of transit time, [32] averaging approximately 115 days (for the nine synodic periods occurring between 2020 and 2037). [52] This plan has been described as 'pure delusion' by George Dvorsky, writing for Gizmodo , [5] and as a 'dangerous delusion' by Lord Martin Rees, a British cosmologist/astrophysicist and the Astronomer Royal of the United Kingdom. [53] Others like Saul Zimet have expressed strong support for the concept, suggesting the possibility that the technological advancements that could be developed on Mars will come to benefit the whole of Earth. [54]

After the first few windows of crewed Mars landings, Musk has suggested that the amount of people who are sent to Mars will be ramped up rapidly. He's stated that in-situ resource utilization will be critical for establishing a self-sustaining colony, and that SpaceX plans to begin its efforts in advancing that field in "seven to nine years". [55] Current theories for in-situ resource utilizations involve harvesting CO2 from the atmosphere and splitting into its raw components. This will involve using the O2 as well as CH4 for fuel production, and specifically the O2 in addition to Nitrogen (the second-most common gas in the Martian atmosphere) for breathing air within habitats. [56]

Reception and feasibility

As of December 2023, SpaceX has not publicly detailed plans for the spacecraft's life-support systems, radiation protection, and in situ resource utilization, which are essential for space colonization. [57]

Notes

    Related Research Articles

    The Mars Society is a nonprofit organization that advocates for human exploration and colonization of Mars. It was founded by Robert Zubrin in 1998 and its principles are based on Zubrin's Mars Direct philosophy, which aims to make human missions to Mars as feasible as possible. The Mars Society generates interest in the Mars program by garnering support from the public and through lobbying. Many current and former Mars Society members are influential in the wider spaceflight community, such as Buzz Aldrin and Elon Musk.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">SpaceX</span> American private spacecraft company

    Space Exploration Technologies Corporation, commonly referred to as SpaceX, is an American spacecraft manufacturer, launch service provider and satellite communications company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. The company was founded in 2002 by Elon Musk with the goal of reducing space transportation costs and ultimately developing a sustainable colony on Mars. The company currently produces and operates the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets along with the Dragon and Starship spacecraft.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">Kennedy Space Center Launch Complex 39A</span> Historic launch pad operated by NASA and SpaceX

    Launch Complex 39A (LC-39A) is the first of Launch Complex 39's three launch pads, located at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Merritt Island, Florida. The pad, along with Launch Complex 39B, was first designed to accommodate the Saturn V launch vehicle. Typically used to launch NASA's crewed spaceflight missions since the late 1960s, the pad was leased by SpaceX and has been modified to support their launch vehicles.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">SpaceX Dragon</span> Family of SpaceX spacecraft

    Dragon is a family of spacecraft developed and produced by American private space transportation company SpaceX. The first family member, later named Dragon 1, flew 23 cargo missions to the ISS between 2010 and 2020 before retiring. This version, not designed to carry astronauts, was funded by NASA with $396 million awarded through the Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) program, with SpaceX announced as a winner of the first round of funding on August 18, 2006.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">VTVL</span> Method of takeoff and landing used by rockets; vertical takeoff, vertical landing

    Vertical takeoff, vertical landing (VTVL) is a form of takeoff and landing for rockets. Multiple VTVL craft have flown. The most successful VTVL vehicle was the Apollo Lunar Module which delivered the first humans to the Moon. Building on the decades of development, SpaceX utilised the VTVL concept for its flagship Falcon 9 first stage, which has delivered over two hundred successful powered landings so far.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">Falcon Heavy</span> Orbital launch vehicle made by SpaceX

    Falcon Heavy is a partially reusable super heavy-lift launch vehicle that can carry cargo into Earth orbit, and beyond. It is designed, manufactured and launched by American aerospace company SpaceX.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">SpaceX reusable launch system development program</span> Effort by SpaceX to make rockets that can fly multiple times

    SpaceX has privately funded the development of orbital launch systems that can be reused many times, similar to the reusability of aircraft. SpaceX has developed technologies over the last decade to facilitate full and rapid reuse of space launch vehicles. The project's long-term objectives include returning a launch vehicle first stage to the launch site within minutes and to return a second stage to the launch pad, following orbital realignment with the launch site and atmospheric reentry in up to 24 hours. SpaceX's long term goal would have been reusability of both stages of their orbital launch vehicle, and the first stage would be designed to allow reuse a few hours after return. Development of reusable second stages for Falcon 9 was later abandoned in favor of developing Starship, however, SpaceX developed reusable payload fairings for the Falcon 9.

    SpaceX <i>Red Dragon</i> Modified SpaceX Dragon spacecraft design for a proposed sample return mission to Mars

    The SpaceX Red Dragon was a 2011–2017 concept for using an uncrewed modified SpaceX Dragon 2 for low-cost Mars lander missions to be launched using Falcon Heavy rockets.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">SpaceX rocket engines</span> Rocket engines developed by SpaceX

    Since the founding of SpaceX in 2002, the company has developed four families of rocket engines — Merlin, Kestrel, Draco and SuperDraco — and is currently developing another rocket engine: Raptor, and after 2020, a new line of methalox thrusters.

    Super heavy-lift launch vehicle Launch vehicle capable of lifting more than 50 tonnes of payload into low earth orbit

    A super heavy-lift launch vehicle is a rocket that can lift to low Earth orbit a "super heavy payload", which is defined as more than 50 metric tons (110,000 lb) by the United States and as more than 100 metric tons (220,000 lb) by Russia. It is the most capable launch vehicle classification by mass to orbit, exceeding that of the heavy-lift launch vehicle classification.

    The Mars race, race to Mars or race for Mars is the competitive environment between various national space agencies, "New Space" and aerospace manufacturers involving crewed missions to Mars, land on Mars, or set a crewed base there. Some of these efforts are part of a greater Mars colonization vision, while others are for glory, or scientific endeavours. Some of this competitiveness is part of the New Space race.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">History of SpaceX</span> History of a space corporation

    This is a corporate history of SpaceX, an American aerospace manufacturer and spacetransport services company founded by Elon Musk.

    <i>dearMoon</i> project Planned crewed circumlunar mission and art project

    The dearMoonproject is a lunar tourism mission and art project conceived and financed by Japanese billionaire Yusaku Maezawa. It will make use of a SpaceX Starship spacecraft on a private spaceflight flying a single circumlunar trajectory around the Moon. The passengers will be Maezawa and eight other civilians, and there may be one or two crew members. The project was unveiled in September 2018 and was scheduled to launch in 2023. It has since been indefinitely delayed until Starship completes development. The project objective is to have eight passengers travel with Maezawa for free around the Moon on a six-day tour. Maezawa said that they expect the experience of space tourism to inspire the accompanying passengers in the creation of something new. If successful, the art would be exhibited some time after returning to Earth with the goal of promoting peace around the world.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">SpaceX Starship</span> Reusable super heavy-lift launch vehicle

    Starship is a two-stage super heavy-lift launch vehicle under development by SpaceX. As of April 2024, it is the largest and most powerful rocket ever flown. Starship's primary objective is to lower launch costs significantly via economies of scale. This is achieved by reusing both rocket stages, increasing payload mass to orbit, increasing launch frequency, creating a mass-manufacturing pipeline, and adapting it to a wide range of space missions. Starship is the latest project in SpaceX's decades-long reusable launch system development program and ambition of colonizing Mars.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">Artemis program</span> NASA-led lunar exploration program

    The Artemis program is a Moon exploration program that is led by the United States' National Aeronoautics and Space Administration (NASA) and was formally established in 2017 via Space Policy Directive 1. The Artemis program is intended to reestablish a human presence on the Moon for the first time since the Apollo 17 moon mission in 1972. The program's stated long-term goal is to establish a permanent base on the Moon to facilitate human missions to Mars.

    SpaceX Starship flight tests include fourteen launches of prototype rockets during 2019–2024 for the SpaceX Starship launch vehicle development program. Eleven test flights were of single-stage Starship spacecraft flying low-altitude tests (2019–2021), while three were orbital trajectory flights of the entire Starship launch vehicle (2023–2024), consisting of a Starship spacecraft second-stage prototype atop a Super Heavy first-stage booster prototype. None of the flights to date has carried an operational payload. More flight tests are planned in 2024 and 2025.

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">SpaceX Raptor</span> SpaceX family of liquid-fuel rocket engines

    Raptor is a family of rocket engines developed and manufactured by SpaceX. The engine is a full-flow staged combustion cycle (FFSC) engine powered by cryogenic liquid methane and liquid oxygen ("methalox").

    <span class="mw-page-title-main">Starship HLS</span> Lunar lander variant of SpaceX Starship

    Starship HLS is a lunar lander variant of the Starship spacecraft that is slated to transfer astronauts from a lunar orbit to the surface of the Moon and back. It is being designed and built by SpaceX under the Human Landing System contract to NASA as a critical element of NASA's Artemis program to land a crew on the Moon.

    Before settling on the 2018 Starship design, SpaceX successively presented a number of reusable super-heavy lift vehicle proposals. These preliminary spacecraft designs were known under various names.

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