2017 Manchester Gorton by-election

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Afzal Khan was elected as the next MP for Manchester Gorton. Official portrait of Afzal Khan MP crop 2.jpg
Afzal Khan was elected as the next MP for Manchester Gorton.

A by-election for the House of Commons constituency of Manchester Gorton was scheduled to take place on 4 May 2017, following the death of the sitting Labour Member of Parliament (MP), Sir Gerald Kaufman. It was cancelled on 20 April following the announcement of the 2017 general election. At the general election in June, most of the candidates who were due to stand in the by-election contested the seat, and the Labour candidate, Afzal Khan, retained the seat for his party with a large majority.

Contents

Kaufman had represented the seat since 1983, and was the Father of the House of Commons (the longest-serving MP). At the previous general election in 2015, he had won a large majority with over two-thirds of the vote, and Manchester Gorton was considered a safe seat. When selecting their candidate, the Labour Party announced a shortlist of five, all of whom had a South Asian background (the seat was over 25% Asian), and chose Afzal Khan, a Member of the European Parliament (MEP) for North West England. Ten other candidates were confirmed to stand in the by-election, including George Galloway, a former Labour MP who stood as an independent, as well as candidates from the Conservative Party, Liberal Democrats, Green Party and UKIP.

On 18 April, Theresa May, the prime minister, called an early election for June 2017, meaning that Parliament would have been dissolved before the by-election took place. Because of this, the by-election was cancelled, making it the first by-election to be cancelled since 1924. With the exception of two minor candidates, the candidates who were supposed to take part in the by-election stood in the general election instead. Khan won the seat with a large majority, receiving 76% of the vote, followed by the Conservative candidate in second. This was one of the highest vote shares achieved by the Labour Party in the election. Khan retained the seat at the 2019 general election with a slightly reduced majority.

Background

ManchesterGorton2007Constituency.svg
Location of Manchester Gorton within Greater Manchester
EnglandGreaterManchester.svg
Location of Greater Manchester within England

The UK Parliament constituency of Manchester Gorton is located in Greater Manchester in North West England. The constituency is a borough constituency, [1] which means that it is mostly urban; [2] it consists of the wards of Fallowfield, Gorton North, Gorton South, Levenshulme, Longsight, Rusholme and Whalley Range in the city of Manchester. [1] In 2016, 68 per cent of adults in the constituency aged 16 to 64 were economically active, which was lower than both the regional and national averages. [3] The constituency's population at the time of the 2011 census was 29% Asian, mainly of Pakistani origin; [4] later, the 2021 census found that the consistuency was 41% white, 36% Asian (including 25% Pakistani and 5% Bangladeshi) and 12% Black, while England and Wales as a whole were 82% white and 9% Asian. [5]

Like all UK Parliament constituencies, it elects one member of parliament (MP) to the House of Commons using the first-past-the-post voting system. [6] Gorton has, with various boundary alterations, been held by the Labour Party since the 1935 general election, [7] and by Gerald Kaufman from 1983 until his death (he previously held the constituency of Manchester Ardwick from 1970 to 1983). [8] At the previous general election in 2015, Kaufman was re-elected with a large majority of over 24,000 votes, making the constituency a safe seat for the party. [9] The Green Party came second, followed by the Conservative Party, UKIP and the Liberal Democrats, [9] whilst the Liberal Democrats had finished second in every general election before that since 1997. [10] In 2017, Labour held every Manchester City Council seat in the constituency. [10]

In the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, Manchester voted 60% in favour of remaining in the European Union (EU); [11] the country voted in favour of leaving the EU (known as Brexit). [12] As Gorton was only part of the Manchester counting area, the exact result in the constituency is unknown, [13] but through demographic modelling the Remain share in the constituency has been estimated to be 62% by Chris Hanretty of the University of East Anglia, [14] and 61% by Number Cruncher Politics. [8]

Sir Gerald Kaufman, who held the seat from 1983 until his death. Kaufman.JPG
Sir Gerald Kaufman, who held the seat from 1983 until his death.
General election 2015: Manchester Gorton [9]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Labour Gerald Kaufman 28,187 67.1 +17.0
Green Laura Bannister4,1089.8+7.1
Conservative Mohammed Afzal4,0639.7−1.3
UKIP Phil Eckersley3,4348.2New
Liberal Democrats Dave Page1,7824.2−28.4
TUSC Simon Hickman2640.6−0.3
Pirate Cris Chesha1810.4−0.2
Majority24,07957.3+39.8
Turnout 42,01957.6+7.1
Labour hold Swing +5.0

On 26 February 2017, Kaufman died after a long illness, triggering a by-election in his constituency. [15] Kaufman was the Father of the House of Commons (the longest-serving MP), having been in office for 47 years, and many politicians paid tribute to him, including the former Labour prime minister Gordon Brown, who described him as "a brilliant speaker, a compelling writer, an acerbic wit and a conscientious constituency MP". [15]

Candidates

Labour

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn campaigning with Labour candidate Afzal Khan. Jeremy Corbyn, Labour leader with Afzal Kahn at Gorton By-election campaign event, Manchester 11th April 2017.jpg
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn campaigning with Labour candidate Afzal Khan.

The local Constituency Labour Party (CLP) has been under special measures since 2004, so candidate selection was run by the National Executive Committee. [10] [16] The Manchester Evening News reported that a debate had been taking place for many years within the Gorton CLP over who would succeed Kaufman, and that the party was experiencing severe internal conflict as a result, with many local figures considering putting themselves forward. [17] A selection panel of Keith Vaz, Glenis Willmott, Shabana Mahmood, Andi Fox and Claudia Webbe interviewed potential candidates on 20 March. Vaz, Willmott and Mahmood were seen as representing the "moderate" wing of the party, and allies of party leader Jeremy Corbyn described the inclusion of Vaz on the panel instead of Corbyn's preferred choice of Rebecca Long-Bailey as an "ambush" arranged by the party's deputy leader, Tom Watson. [18] The Labour longlist consisted of eight local councillors, the Member of the European Parliament (MEP) Afzal Khan, and Sam Wheeler. [19]

The NEC panel shortlisted five candidates, four of whom were local councillors on the Manchester City Council:

The shortlist consisted only of candidates with a South Asian background, which was praised seeing as the city had no ethnic minority MPs; [4] [21] previously, there had been speculation that there would be an all-women shortlist, but this did not take place. [17] The omission of two candidates seen as close to Corbyn, Sam Wheeler and Julie Reid, drew complaints from the left wing of the party. [4] Khan was reported to have the support of the Unite, Usdaw, GMB and CWU trade unions, while Dar was backed by the local branch of the Corbyn-supporting organisation Momentum; Unite initially backed Wheeler. [22]

Khan was selected as Labour's candidate on 22 March 2017. It was reported that Dar came second, with Rahman in third place. The other two candidates were eliminated in the first round of voting, under the Labour Party's alternative vote system. [20]

Other parties

The Green Party of England and Wales announced the entrepreneur Jess Mayo as their candidate on 16 March; [23] she was a member of the Trafford Green Party branch who had stood for election in Wythenshawe and Sale East at the 2015 general election. [24] Dr Shaden Jaradat, an employee of the University of Manchester, was selected as the Conservative Party candidate on 30 March. [25] [26] UKIP chose Phil Eckersley, who was also the party's candidate for Manchester Gorton at the 2015 general election, [27] to stand in the by-election. [28] On 4 March, the Liberal Democrats announced their candidate as Jackie Pearcey, a former councillor for the ward of Gorton North, [29] [30] who stood in the constituency in general elections in 1997 and 2001. [31] After early speculation, John Leech, a councillor who had served as the Liberal Democrat MP for Manchester Withington from 2005 to 2015, had ruled himself out. [7]

George Galloway, a former Labour Party and Respect Party MP, announced his intention to stand as an independent candidate on 21 March; he had previously represented several British constituencies and admitted that he had no link to Manchester, saying "It’s true I’m not local, but then neither was Sir Matt Busby". [4] Galloway was critical of Labour's shortlist only including people of South Asian ethnicity. [4] [32] Upon Galloway's announcement, both the Liberal Democrats and Greens attacked him for his strong support for Brexit, while Lisa Nandy of the Labour Party criticised his past comments about sexual assault allegations against Julian Assange. [4] [23] [33] The Communist League announced that Peter Clifford would be their candidate at the by-election. [34] Clifford had been a candidate in the 2017 Greater Manchester mayoral election before withdrawing due to cost, [35] and previously contested the 2012 by-election in the neighbouring constituency of Manchester Central, coming last out of 12 candidates with 64 votes. [36] Kemi Abidogun was to contest the seat for the Christian Peoples Alliance. [28] "The Irrelevant" Johnny Disco was standing for the satirical Monster Raving Loony Party. [28] Two other independent candidates, David Hopkins and Sufi Khandoker, would also have been on the ballot. [28]

Labour Party poster campaign Labour Party poster campaign.jpg
Labour Party poster campaign

The full list of eleven candidates was published on 6 April 2017. [28]

CandidateParty
Kemi Abidogun CPA
Peter Clifford Communist League
The Irrelevant Johnny Disco Monster Raving Loony
Phil Eckersley UKIP
George Galloway Independent
David Hopkins Independent
Shaden Jaradat Conservative
Afzal Khan Labour
Sufi Khandoker Independent
Jess Mayo Green
Jackie Pearcey Liberal Democrats

The candidates at the general election were the same, except for Sufi Khandoker and The Irrelevant Johnny Disco, who did not stand. [37]

Campaign

Levenshulme Community Association hustings Gorton Hustings.jpg
Levenshulme Community Association hustings

The Liberal Democrat Deputy Director of Campaigns and Elections, Dave McCobb, claimed on 15 April that private polling suggested that the Liberal Democrats had returned to 31% support in the constituency versus Labour's 51%, similar to the results of the 2010 general election in the constituency, in which the Liberal Democrats received 33% of the vote and Labour polled 50%. [38] Tim Farron, the leader of the Liberal Democrats, later told The Observer that he believed that Jackie Pearcey, the Liberal Democrat candidate, would have won the seat from Labour had the poll gone ahead; Farron affirmed that he still expected her to take the seat in the 2017 general election. [39] In the event, Pearcey finished in fourth place. [9]

A hustings arranged by the Levenshulme Community Association on 22 April went ahead despite the postponement of the vote, and was attended by eight of the candidates. [40] [41]

Cancellation

On 18 April, Theresa May, the Conservative prime minister, announced a plan to seek an early parliamentary general election on 8 June, meaning that Parliament would be dissolved at the time the by-election was scheduled to take place. [42] David Lidington, the Leader of the House of Commons told MPs that there was no statutory power to cancel a by-election when a general election was in progress, but that there was a precedent from 1923 when a by-election writ was regarded as having been superseded. [43] His expectation was that the Acting Returning Officer would regard that as being the case. [44] There was doubt as to whether the by-election would or would not go ahead, however, with the Acting Returning Officer saying that she had no legal power to cancel the poll. [45] MPs were then asked to overturn the writ for the poll, cancelling the by-election, which they did on 20 April, [46] leaving the seat vacant until the general election. [43]

Results and analysis

General election 2017: Manchester Gorton [9] [47]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Labour Afzal Khan 35,085 76.3 +9.3
Conservative Shaden Jaradat3,3557.3−2.4
Independent George Galloway 2,6155.7New
Liberal Democrats Jackie Pearcey2,5975.7+1.4
Green Jess Mayo1,0382.3−7.5
UKIP Phil Eckersley9522.1−6.1
CPA Kemi Abidogun2330.5New
Independent David Hopkins510.1New
Communist League Peter Clifford270.1New
Majority31,73069.0+11.7
Turnout 45,95361.0+3.4
Labour hold Swing +5.9

At the general election on 8 June, Afzal Khan won with a majority of 31,730 to become the new constituency MP. [9] At the election, the constituency was the 9th-safest seat (in terms of majority as a percentage), with every safer seat also being held by Labour; the seat also had the lowest vote share for the Conservatives of any seat outside Northern Ireland. [48] George Galloway's 5.7% was the 10th highest vote share achieved by an independent candidate in the election. [48]

Aftermath

Khan was re-elected at the next general election on 12 December 2019, increasing his vote share to 78% of the vote, though his absolute majority over the Conservative candidate in second place decreased slightly. [9] The constituency had the 7th-highest vote share for Labour in the election and was the party's 6th-safest seat. [49]

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References

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  2. ↑ The 2018 Review of Parliamentary Constituency Boundaries (PDF) (Report). Vol. One: Report. Boundary Commission for England. September 2018. p. 10. Retrieved 19 June 2023.
  3. ↑ "All people – Economically active: Manchester, Gorton". Office for National Statistics. 2023. Retrieved 19 June 2023.
  4. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Pidd, Helen (21 March 2017). "George Galloway to stand in Manchester Gorton byelection". The Guardian. Retrieved 21 March 2017.
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  6. ↑ "General election 2019: What is the secret behind tactical voting?". BBC News. 13 November 2019. Retrieved 19 June 2023. The UK uses a first-past-the-post voting system, sometimes described as "winner takes all"
  7. 1 2 Silvera, Ian (28 February 2017). "Manchester Gorton by-election: Former Lib Dem MP John Leech rules himself out". International Business Times. Retrieved 28 February 2017.
  8. 1 2 Singh, Matt (27 February 2017). "Manchester Gorton by-election – Number Cruncher Politics". Number Cruncher Politics. Retrieved 2 March 2017.
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  10. 1 2 3 Bush, Stephen (28 February 2017). "Who will win the Manchester Gorton by-election?" . New Statesman. Retrieved 19 June 2023.
  11. ↑ "EU referendum: Brexit win amid Manchester's strong Remain vote". BBC News. 24 June 2016. Retrieved 19 June 2023.
  12. ↑ "EU Referendum Results". BBC News. 2016. Retrieved 19 June 2023.
  13. ↑ Dempsey, Noel (6 February 2017). "Brexit: votes by constituency". House of Commons Library. Retrieved 19 June 2023.
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  15. 1 2 "Labour MP Gerald Kaufman dies at 86". BBC News. 27 February 2017. Retrieved 19 June 2023.
  16. ↑ Waugh, Paul (9 March 2017). "Labour infighting over Manchester Gorton by-election 'risks gifting seat to Liberal Democrats'". Huffington Post . Retrieved 24 March 2017.
  17. 1 2 Williams, Jennifer (1 March 2017). "The Labour battle for Gorton". Manchester Evening News . Retrieved 2 March 2017.
  18. ↑ Blanchard, Jack (7 March 2017). "Jeremy Corbyn "ambushed" over Manchester Gorton by-election as disgraced Keith Vaz bags key role". Daily Mirror . Retrieved 8 March 2017.
  19. ↑ Bean, Emma (20 March 2017). "Gorton selection: Longlist revealed". LabourList . Retrieved 19 June 2023.
  20. 1 2 Williams, Jennifer (23 March 2017). "North west MEP Afzal Khan selected as Labour candidate for Gorton by-election". Manchester Evening News . Retrieved 23 March 2017.
  21. 1 2 Bean, Emma (21 March 2017). "Gorton shortlist revealed". LabourList. Retrieved 22 March 2017.
  22. ↑ Bean, Emma (22 March 2017). "Fresh backing for shortlisted candidates in Gorton race". LabourList. Retrieved 22 March 2017.
  23. 1 2 "George Galloway to stand in Manchester Gorton by-election". BBC News . 21 March 2017.
  24. ↑ "Greens announce Jess Mayo as their candidate for the Gorton by-election". ITV News. 16 March 2017. Retrieved 16 March 2017.
  25. ↑ Conservatives North [@ToryPressNorth] (30 March 2017). "Congratulations to Dr Shaden Jaradat who has tonight been selected as the Conservative candidate in the Manchester Gorton by-election" (Tweet). Retrieved 19 June 2023– via Twitter.
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  39. ↑ Helm, Toby (22 April 2017). "Tim Farron: 'If you want to prevent hard Brexit then the Lib Dems have a clear message'". The Guardian. Retrieved 19 June 2023.
  40. ↑ Hoad, Jeremy (5 April 2017). "Election Hustings Announced For Manchester Gorton By-election". Levenshulme Community Association. Retrieved 19 June 2023.
  41. ↑ Hoad, Jeremy (22 April 2017). "Find Out Tonight Why These People Want To Be Your MP". Levenshulme Community Association. Retrieved 19 June 2023.
  42. ↑ Asthana, Anushka; Mason, Rowena; Elgot, Jessica (18 April 2017). "Theresa May calls for UK general election on 8 June". The Guardian. Retrieved 19 June 2023.
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  48. 1 2 Apostolova, Vyara; Audickas, Lukas; Baker, Carl; Bate, Alex; Cracknell, Richard; Dempsey, Noel; Hawkins, Oliver; McInnes, Rob; Rutherford, Tom; Uberoi, Elise (29 January 2019). General Election 2017: results and analysis (PDF) (Report) (2nd ed.). House of Commons Library. pp. 66, 69. Retrieved 19 June 2023.
  49. ↑ Uberoi, Elise; Baker, Carl; Cracknell, Richard; Allen, Grahame; Roberts, Nerys; Barton, Cassie; Sturge, Georgina; Danechi, Shadi; Harker, Rachael; Bolton, Paul; McInnes, Rod; Watson, Chris; Dempsey, Noel; Audickas, Lukas (28 January 2020). General Election 2019: results and analysis (PDF) (Report) (2nd ed.). House of Commons Library. pp. 12, 73. Retrieved 19 June 2023.
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