The current election laws are considered by numerous international governments and NGOs to be neither free nor fair.[1][2][3] Only pro-Beijing "patriots" are allowed to run, the majority of opposition pan-democratic members were banned, jailed, or forced into exile. Virtually all opposition parties were intimidated into dissolving by the government and the police.[4] Only 20 of the Council's 90 seats are directly elected, with the remaining 70 indirectly elected by selected groups of professionals and corporate representatives, resulting in a disproportionate two-tier democracy and very limited popular representation.
Background
Past legislative session
The 7th Legislative Council elected in 2021 was the first after the national security law and electoral changes were imposed by the Chinese government. Without any legislator explicitly from the pro-democracy camp, the legislature packed with pro-Beijing members was criticised to lack meaningful discussions and debates, while newcomers of the Legislative Council resorted to politically correct measures only, such as repeating speeches by Chinese officials.[5]Ming Pao reported in August 2023 that amongst the 24 government bills passed since the beginning of the legislative term, including the domestic security law which was fast-tracked,[6] 16 of those were approved without a quorum,[7] prompting concerns of MP's performance.[8]Andrew Leung, President of the Legislative Council, denied claims that the chamber rubber-stamped bills and defended it as highly efficient.[9] However, an opinion poll by pro-government party and think tank Path of Democracy said 48.1% of the interviewed expressed dissatisfaction with legislators' performance and only 29.4% were content.[10]
Apart from evaluation from the own party, it was also reported that government officials were involved in assessing the performance of the legislators in the run-up to the election, an act seen as unprecedented before the "patriot-only" principle was implemented.[11]
Smart ballot box
In December 2024, the government announced a series of new measures to be implemented in this election. The Improving Electoral Arrangements (Consolidated Amendments) Bill contained a plan to introduce "smart ballot boxes" to ensure ballots were validly marked.[12] While the Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Bureau said the scanners would "streamline and enhance" procedures while ensuring that "cardinal election principles" such as voting confidentiality would be upheld, some lawmakers expressed concerns over the implications of compromising vote secrecy.[13] Although insisting the voter rights would be protected as voters would not be identified, the government withdrew the proposal less than a week later after "considering the views of legislators".[14] The bureau said it attaches great importance to the views and is willing to "accept well-intentioned advice", while the smart ballot boxes will still be made available for voters who choose to use them.[15]
Unusually quiet campaign
Sing Tao Daily reported that as many as one-third of the 89 incumbents "may not be able to stay", including Paul Tse, who was named for making "politically incorrect remarks", and Lam So-wai for her poor performance. So Cheung-wing, who did not vote in the second reading of the security bill, was also said to be leaving the legislature.[16] The South China Morning Post, citing insiders, said three elected lawmakers, Joephy Chan of the FTU, Stanley Li of the DAB, and Dominic Lee of the NPP, are on the list that are not "blessed" for a new term, owing to their underperformance.[17] Sources added that age and intra-party succession may contribute to the retirement of others.[16] It is expected that those implicated in rumoured sex scandals or other reported misconduct could be barred from running again.[18][19]
Four months prior to polling day, pre-campaign activities were "eerily calm" without any signs of preparations, following rumours that the authorities had not yet decided on "blessing" the candidates to enter the race. The by-elections for the Election Committee, which would select 40 of the 90 members, were also without any electioneering. It was widely circulated that legislators that had an unsatisfactory performance would not be approved by the Chinese authorities for a new term, and that the Chief Executive could single-handedly block any members from running for re-election. Senior officials of the government also had reportedly submitted a report on the performances of members, which could play a role in Chief Executive's decision.[20]
Future of democrats and moderates
The implementation of the "Patriots administering Hong Kong" principle barred "unpatriotic" opposition from being elected to public offices. The flagship pro-democracy group the Democratic Party, once the largest party in the Legislative Council, is expected to dissolve in 2025. Media sources indicated Chinese government has pressed for the closure of the "worthless" party, who was unable to run in the 2021 and 2023 "patriot-only" elections.[21] Reportedly also under pressure, the League of Social Democrats disbanded in late June. The pro-democracy camp is considered to have come to an end without any active political groups.
The new rules also reduced the portion of elected seats to around 22%, which was considered by democratic watchdogs as a decrease in democratic values.[2][3]Hong Kong Economic Journal said some members from the business sector recommended Beijing authorities to draw up a timeline to gradually reintroduce more elected seats in order to improve Hong Kong's international image and align with the Basic Law article. The businessmen also reportedly trusted the new chamber would not be undermined when "anti-China" opposition voices would remain extra-parliamentary by the vetting committee.[4] Third Side, the only self-claimed moderate group in the Legislative Council, and Path of Democracy hoped an electoral reform would be initiated by the government in due course.[22] However, it was speculated that the moderates would also be ousted from legislative races as they are "no longer needed in a patriotic administration".[23]
Retiring incumbents
Media has been speculating whether lawmakers aged 70 or above may be able to stay in the parliament.[17]Andrew Leung, president of the legislature for nine years, made a surprise announcement on 29 September that he will stand down from the legislature, citing his age and his family. He said he hoped this would give capable candidates to prepare sufficiently for the election. His decision further raised speculations about an age limit of 70 for lawmakers, although Leung said it was solely his personal decision. While recalling his nine-year leadership, Leung said the Legislative Council successfully ended the opposition's disruption.[24] Possible successors for the presidency include Starry Lee, Chan Chun-ying, Martin Liao, and Chan Kin-por.[25]
Ma Fung-kwok, 70, announced his retirement on the same day with Leung's, also citing his age.[25] Two veterans, 76-year-old Liberal Party leader Tommy Cheung and Chan Kin-por, 71, confirmed their intention not to seek another term on 11 October. Cheung said he has carefully considered his decision with the development of the One Country, Two Systems, while Chan said he is passing the baton to younger rank to run for the election.[26] The sole self-branded "non-establishment" moderate member Tik Chi-yuen is also stepping down, saying a younger colleague from his party Third Side will run only as the party did not gather enough funding to support his re-election.[27] More lawmakers dropped out in the next few days, including 74-year-old Jeffrey Lam,[28] 72-year-old BPA chairman Lo Wai-kwok,[29] and pro-Beijing caucus leader Martin Liao, aged 68.
John Lee, the Chief Executive, said the departures are normal and personal decisions by the lawmakers. Lee added the generational succession is a positive sign for the Legislative Council.[30]
Third Side: The party originally aimed at winning two geographical constituencies as a breakthrough and keeping one functional constituency,[33] but decided to run in one constituency only as the party fails to gather sufficient resources for the races.[27]
The previous Legislative Council election recorded a historic low turnout of 30.2% despite widespread campaign. In this election, the government allocated 1.28 billion dollars for advertising, marking an increase of over 50%. However, the pro-Beijing side expected another election with limited participation due to the National Games of China, taking place in November and December and to be held in Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macau for the first time, shifting the public's attention. Aiming for at least a turnout of 30%, they believed a costly advertising campaign, similar to the 2023 local elections, could be criticized as a waste of public money when the government's deficit remains troublesome.[34][35][36]Erick Tsang, the constitutional affairs secretary, said the government does not have a benchmark for the turnout.[37]
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