2026 Kazakh legislative election

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2026 Kazakh legislative election
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August 2026 (2026-08)
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All 145 seats in the Kurultai
73 seats needed for a majority
  Aibek Dadebay (2024-10-09) (cropped).png Serik Egizbaev (2023-04-12).jpg Qojanazarov portrait, 2023 (blank).jpg
Leader Aybek Dädebay Serik Egizbaev Aidarbek Qojanazarov
Party Adilet Auyl Respublica
Leader since7 May 202618 October 20236 December 2022
Last electionNew10.9%, 8 seats8.59%, 6 seats
  Dania Espaeva (2024-06-26, cropped).jpg ErmuhametErtisbaev 08282019 (cropped).jpg Ashat Raqimjanov (2023-06-07).jpg
Leader Dania Espaeva Ermūhamet Ertısbaev Ashat Raqymjanov
Party Aq Jol QHP JSDP
Leader since13 June 202627 March 20226 September 2019
Last election8.41%, 6 seats6.8%, 5 seats5.2%, 4 seats
Incumbent Prime Minister

Oljas Bektenov
Amanat



The 2026 Kazakh legislative election are scheduled to be held in Kazakhstan in August 2026, to elect all 145 seats to the newly formed Kurultai. [1] [2] It will be the 10th legislative election since Kazakhstan's independence in 1991 and the first election to the Kurultai, a unicameral legislature established under the new constitution of Kazakhstan, which was adopted in the 2026 constitutional referendum and is set to replace the bicameral Parliament of Kazakhstan upon its entry into force on 1 July 2026. [3]

Contents

Background

The 8th Parliament of Kazakhstan convened following the 2023 legislative elections to the lower house Mäjilis, which were called after president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev dissolved the 7th Parliament as part of the final stage of the political reset of state institutions that followed the 2022 Kazakh unrest. [4] [5] The elections were held under a reintroduced mixed electoral system approved in the 2022 constitutional referendum, the first such system used since 2004. [6] [7] Amanat (formerly Nur Otan) won a majority of 62 seats, [8] though reduced compared to previous convocations, [9] and the new composition of the Mäjilis included independent deputies elected from single-member districts, [10] representatives of the self-declared opposition Nationwide Social Democratic Party, and first-time parliamentary entrants Auyl and Respublica, bringing in a total of six party factions. [11] From there, at the opening session of the 8th convocation, Erlan Qoşanov (Amanat) was re-elected as chairman of the Mäjilis, and the Parliament approved the reappointment of Älihan Smaiylov as prime minister of Kazakhstan. [12] [13] [14]

Discussions about a possible further constitutional amendments and snap parliamentary election emerged in 2024; [15] [16] however, in January 2025, during an interview with the newspaper Ana tili, president Tokayev publicly denied plans for any snap elections, including parliamentary ones, stating that the 8th Parliament of Kazakhstan would serve its full term and that elections would be held in accordance with the law. [17] [18] [19]

Despite Tokayev ruling out early elections, ongoing discussions about future constitutional reforms, including proposals to abolish the Senate, speculation persisted about snap parliamentary elections with social activist Qazbek Beisebaev noting that any changes to parliament would first require constitutional amendments or a referendum before snap election, and while the current parliament is generally loyal to the government, other political actors might seek to renew the legislature for strategic purposes. [20] In June 2025, chairman of the Senate Mäulen Äşimbaev acknowledging rumours of early parliamentary elections allegedly taking place in autumn of that year, stated that there were no grounds to expect such elections. [21] [22] [23]

2026 constitutional referendum

In September 2025, during his State of the Nation Address, Tokayev announced proposed parliamentary reforms, including a constitutional amendment to abolish the Senate and transform the Parliament of Kazakhstan into a unicameral legislature elected by party-list, suggesting that the change be decided through a referendum sometime in 2027. [24] The announcement was followed by six-month span with the establishment of a working group and later a constitutional commission tasked with drafting amendments. [25] During its work, the commission concluded that the scope of proposed amendments exceeded initial expectations and ultimately endorsed adopting a new constitution, [26] [27] which its draft was finalized in February 2026 and subsequently submitted by Tokayev to a referendum. [28] [29]

The referendum "Yes" vote campaign was organized under the National Coalition "For the People's Constitution of a Fair and Progressive Kazakhstan", bringing together pro-government political parties and public organizations in support of the draft constitution, [30] which proposed restructuring Kazakhstan's legislative system ahead of the transition to the newly unicameral Kurultai. [31] [32] The referendum campaign took place in a restrictive political environment marked by reported pressure on opponents and critics of the draft constitution, censorship, limits on independent polling, and rejected legal challenges, [33] [34] with social media users referring to the draft constitution as "sour cream" to avoid crackdown. [35] [36]

The proposal was officially approved by 87% of voters, with Tokayev issuing a decree adopting the new constitution on 17 March 2026, set to enter into force on 1 July 2026. [37] [38]

Election date speculation

During the constitutional reform process in January 2026, analysts including Gaziz Abishev and Aidar Alibayev suggested that approval of the transition to a unicameral parliament would likely lead to early legislative elections rather than waiting until the scheduled January 2028 vote, arguing that the authorities had incentives to complete the political transition before possible economic deterioration and declining public support. [39] Opposition politician Amirjan Qosanov assessed that the constitutional referendum would be followed by parliamentary approval of the amendments by both chambers, after which elections to the unicameral Kurultai could be held within two to three months. [40]

In the referendum campaign period, Senate chairman Mäulen Äşimbaev stipulated that, if approved, the current bicameral Parliament would remain in office until 1 July 2026, after which elections to the new unicameral Kurultai would be held before 1 September 2026, when the new legislature would begin its duties. [41] Following the referendum, president Tokayev stated at a meeting with representatives of youth organizations involved in the campaign that elections to the Kurultai would be held in the summer. [42] He later confirmed in April 2026 that the vote would take place in the month of August, [43] [44] a timeframe he reiterated again in early June. [45] [46] [47]

Political analyst Daniyar Ashimbayev stated that the constitutional transition created a compressed electoral timetable requiring elections to the Kurultai to be held between 1 August and 1 September 2026, noting media speculation surrounding possible election dates of 16 August, 23 August, and 30 August, while arguing that President Tokayev's advance announcement was intended to encourage parties to begin preparing for the campaign before the formal election decree was issued. [48] Following the Amanat party's announcement of its extraordinary congress in June 2026, he suggested that this was interpreted within broader election-date speculation under the same compressed timetable, with possible voting dates discussed as 16 or 23 August. [49]

Minimum wage increase proposal

In the lead-up to the 2026 elections in Kazakhstan, economic concerns such as inflation, rising utility costs, and declining real incomes became a key issue in public debate, despite continued official references to macroeconomic growth. Against this backdrop, the Kazakh government's April 2026 proposal to raise the national minimum wage from 85,000 to 150,000 tenge emerged as a prominent socio-economic pledge, with First Vice Minister of National Economy Azamat Amrin linking it to a target of bringing minimum wages closer to 50% of median income. [50] However, Minister of Labour and Social Protection Asqarbek Ertaev later clarified that the proposal remained under review, with no finalized methodology, budget decision, or implementation timeline, ruling out near-term adoption. [51]

Analysts interpreted the timing of the announcement amid preparations for the new unicameral Kurultai as carrying a clear pre-election dimension, with political scientist Daniyar Ashimbayev describing the proposal as having a "pre-election theme" and a populist character that signaled responsiveness to public concerns over living standards while functioning more as a politically salient promise than an immediate policy commitment, in a context where parliamentary elections are generally viewed as less politically destabilizing and where protest sentiment is often expected to be absorbed within pro-government parties. [52]

Formation of the Ädilet party

The Ädilet party was formed in April 2026 by political activists, public figures, business representatives, and members of the Constitutional Commission amid Kazakhstan's post-referendum political restructuring following the adoption of a new constitution. [53] The party emerged ahead of the 2026 legislative elections as a centrist, pro-presidential political force supporting the state's reform agenda. [53]

Its rapid registration, prominent leadership, and close association with the constitutional reform process prompted extensive political commentary. Analysts characterized Ädilet as part of a broader reconfiguration of Kazakhstan's party system following the constitutional reforms, with some describing it as a move toward a more competitive multi-party or quasi two-party system and suggesting that it could reshape the distribution of pro-presidential and centrist voters ahead of the elections. [54] [55] Political scientist Andrei Chebotarev described Ädilet as a potential "sparring partner" to ruling Amanat party, while other observers viewed the party as an attempt to project political renewal within the existing political framework. [55] [56] [57] [58]

The significance of Ädilet increased substantially following the 26th Amanat Extraordinary Congress on 12 June 2026, at which Amanat approved its merger into Ädilet. [59] The merger ended Amanat's 27-year existence as an independent political party and transformed Ädilet into the institutional successor to the former ruling party ahead of the legislative elections. [60]

Electoral system

Following the adoption of a new constitution in the March 2026 referendum, the electoral framework of Kazakhstan underwent its most significant restructuring since 1995. The reforms abolished the bicameral Parliament of Kazakhstan by dissolving the upper chamber Senate and established a unicameral legislature known as the Kurultai, whose members are known as deputies. [61] The 145 deputies of the Kurultai are elected to five-year terms through a closed party-list proportional representation system from a single nationwide constituency, replacing the mixed electoral system used in the 2023 election and eliminating single-member constituencies. [62] The reforms also marked a return to the nationwide proportional representation system previously used between 2007 and 2021, for the first time since the 2021 election. [63] Political parties are required to surpass a 5% electoral threshold to obtain representation, with seats allocated through closed party lists using the quota method. Under the constitution's retained imperative mandate provisions, deputies automatically lose their seats if they resign from or are expelled by their respective political parties.

Political parties

In June 2026, Justice Minister Erlan Särsembaev stated that political party registration and reorganization procedures would continue until the new constitution entered into force on 1 July 2026, after which elections to the Kurultai would be announced. He added that new parties registered before that date would be eligible to participate in the 2026 elections. [64]

Parliamentary parties

NameParty leaderFaction leaderIdeologyPosition2023 election
Votes (%)Seats
Amanat Amanat Erlan Qoşanov Aidos Sarym Kazakh nationalism Big tent 53.9%
62 / 98
Auyl Auyl Serik Egizbaev Agrarianism Centre-left 10.9%
8 / 98
Respublica Respublica Aidarbek Qojanazarov National liberalism Centre-right 8.6%
6 / 98
Aq Jol Aq Jol Dania Espaeva Azat Peruaşev Liberal conservatism Centre-right 8.4%
6 / 98
QHP People's Party of Kazakhstan Ermukhamet Ertisbaev Magerram Magerramov Democratic socialism Left-wing 6.8%
5 / 98
JSDP Nationwide Social Democratic Party Ashat Raqymjanov Social democracy Centre-left 5.2%
4 / 98

Campaign

JSDP

On 27 March 2026, the Nationwide Social Democratic Party (JSDP) held an assembly in Astana following the constitutional referendum, described by BES.media as a "pre-election review", where it presented its program manifesto The White Rose of Creation and outlined policy priorities including social justice, economic redistribution, land reform, labor rights, environmental policy, and expanded social guarantees, positioning itself for the upcoming political cycle ahead of the 2026 legislative elections. [65] [66]

Respublica

In early May 2026, Majilis deputy and Respublica party chairman Aidarbek Qojanazarov stated that hundreds of party members had expressed interest in becoming candidates for the Kurultai, adding that party list selection would be based on clear policy agendas rather than personal ambition, and that the Respublica party aimed to maximize its parliamentary representation depending on voter support. [67]

Conduct

Elections in Kazakhstan are prepared and conducted by various bodies of election commissions.

Election funding

In May 2026, the CEC estimated that the cost of the Kurultai elections could exceed 15–20 billion tenge and surpass the expenses of previous republican referendums, including the 2026 constitutional referendum. [68] [69] CEC secretary Şavkat Ötemisov noted that the final budget would be determined after the election date is announced, with major costs expected to be driven by election commission staffing and logistical expenses. [70] [71] Deputy Prime Minister — Minister of National Economy Serik Jumanğarin also stated that the elections would be financed from the republican budget, adding that precise cost estimates would only be determined once the official election date is set. [72] In early June, Ötemisov further indicated that the final amount would depend on the number of registered voters, polling stations, and election commission personnel required for the vote. [73]

Electronic voting

CEC secretary Şavkat Ötemisov stated that electronic voting was not under active consideration for the 2026 election, although Kazakhstan continued to study international experience with electronic voting systems. Ötemisov cited cybersecurity risks, including concerns over external interference and cyberattacks against election infrastructure, as well as the high projected costs of implementing a secure electronic voting system. [74] At the same time, Minister of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development Jaslan Mädiev stated that secure electronic voting systems could be developed in Kazakhstan if formally required, noting that technical solutions could be designed to meet cybersecurity, speed, and usability requirements. [75]

Observation

On 18 May 2026, the Central Election Commission (CEC) met with a delegation of Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Permanent Representatives to discuss constitutional and electoral reforms, measures to strengthen electoral infrastructure and rights protections, concerns over external interference, and future cooperation, with CEC deputy chairman Muqtar Erman announcing that an official invitation would be sent to the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights to observe the upcoming Kurultai elections. [76] Additionally, Senate chairman Mäulen Äşimbaev, during the council meeting of the CIS Interparliamentary Assembly (IPA CIS) on 21 May, invited observers from the IPA CIS to observe the elections and expressed hope for their participation. [77]

References

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