Nova Scotia general election, 2013

Last updated

2013 Nova Scotia general election
Flag of Nova Scotia.svg
  2009 October 8, 2013 2017  

51 seats in the Nova Scotia House of Assembly
26 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout 59.08%

  Majority party Minority party Third party
  Stephen McNeil color-balanced.jpg Jamie Baillie, Leader of the PC Party of Nova Scotia.jpg Darrell Dexter 2.jpg
Leader Stephen McNeil Jamie Baillie Darrell Dexter
Party Liberal Progressive Conservative New Democratic
Leader since April 28, 2007 October 26, 2010 June 2, 2002
Leader's seat Annapolis Cumberland South Cole Harbour
ran in Cole Harbour-Portland Valley (lost)
Last election 11 seats, 27.20% 10 seats, 24.54% 31 seats, 45.24%
Seats before 12 7 31
Seats won 33 11 7
Seat changeIncrease2.svg21Increase2.svg4Decrease2.svg24
Popular vote 190,112 109,452 111,622
Percentage 45.71% 26.31% 26.84%
SwingIncrease2.svg18.51pp Increase2.svg1.77pp Decrease2.svg18.40pp

Nova Scotia Election 2013 Results Map.svg

Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding.

Premier before election

Darrell Dexter
New Democratic

Premier-elect

Stephen McNeil
Liberal

The 2013 Nova Scotia general election, formally the 39th Nova Scotia general election, was held on October 8, 2013, to elect members to the Nova Scotia House of Assembly.

Nova Scotia House of Assembly single house, former lower house, of Nova Scotia Legislature

The Nova Scotia House of Assembly is one of two components of the General Assembly of Nova Scotia, the other being the Queen of Canada in Right of Nova Scotia represented by the Lieutenant Governor of Nova Scotia. It is the legislative branch of the provincial government of Nova Scotia, Canada. The assembly is the oldest in Canada, having first sat in 1758, and in 1848 was the site of the first responsible government in the British Empire.

Contents

The result of the election was a Liberal victory under the leadership of Stephen McNeil, with the Liberals winning their first election since 1998. The Progressive Conservatives under the leadership of Jamie Baillie improved on their 2009 results and formed the official opposition, despite winning fewer votes than the New Democratic Party (NDP). The NDP, which had won power for the first time in 2009 under the leadership of Darrell Dexter was reduced to third place and became the first one-term government since 1882. Dexter was defeated in the riding he contested in Cole Harbour-Portland Valley by Liberal candidate Tony Ince.

Nova Scotia Liberal Party political party in Nova Scotia, Canada

The Nova Scotia Liberal Party is a socially liberal, fiscally conservative political party in Nova Scotia, Canada. The party currently forms government in Nova Scotia, under the leadership of Premier Stephen McNeil. It has held power in the province since the 2013 election, and the current government led by Stephen McNeil was the first in Nova Scotia to win 2 consecutive majorities since the government of John Buchanan, after the victory in the 2017 Nova Scotia election.

Stephen McNeil Canadian politician, 28th Premier of Nova Scotia

Stephen McNeil is a Canadian politician who is the 28th and current premier of Nova Scotia, having assumed office on October 22, 2013. He has also represented the riding of Annapolis in the Nova Scotia House of Assembly since 2003 and has been the leader of the Nova Scotia Liberal Party since 2007.

Timeline

Darrell Dexter Canadian politician

Darrell Elvin Dexter is a Canadian lawyer, journalist and former naval officer who served as the 27th Premier of the Canadian province of Nova Scotia from 2009 to 2013. A member of the Nova Scotia New Democratic Party, he served as party leader from 2001 to 2013. He became Premier in 2009 after his party defeated the governing Progressive Conservative Party, leading the first NDP government in Atlantic Canada and the second east of Manitoba. His government was defeated in the 2013 election, becoming the first Nova Scotia government in 131 years to be denied a second mandate; Dexter himself was defeated in his constituency by 21 votes. Dexter now serves as a lobbyist for the marijuana industry.

Rodney MacDonald Canadian politician

Rodney Joseph MacDonald is a Canadian politician, educator and musician who served as the 26th Premier of Nova Scotia from 2006 to 2009 and as MLA for the riding of Inverness in the Nova Scotia House of Assembly from 1999 to 2009.

Karen Lynn Casey is a Canadian politician who represents the electoral district of Colchester North in the Nova Scotia House of Assembly as a member of the Liberal caucus.

Campaign

The election campaign began the week after Labour Day, when the Legislature would normally have been expected to return to work, had there been no election campaign. As criticism or defence of government policy would dominate the agenda, and by convention electoral mandates are understood to last about four years, despite a lack of fixed election dates, the timing was not controversial.

The Muskrat Falls or Lower Churchill Project, its associated Maritime Link, and electricity policy generally, immediately emerged as the key issue in the early campaign. . Liberals emphasized Nova Scotia Power's (NSPI) dominance of power generation, and its ability to exclude alternatives through its near-monopoly ownership of the distribution network, covering 129/130 Nova Scotians. They also promised to remove a conservation charge, named for demand response programs that never materialized (though many passive conservation programs run by Efficiency Nova Scotia did prove effective) – instead proposing that NSPI pay for it from its return. Liberals and Conservatives criticized NSPI's unaccountable 9.2% guaranteed rate of return even for unwise investments. Conservatives acknowledged that it was under pressure to meet a tough renewable standard (which they would relax) but also promised to freeze rates. The NDP government continued to defend Muskrat Falls as the only viable alternative to replace coal-fired power, even though this project was before the Nova Scotia Utilities Review Board as of the election call, remained unchanged and this was reflected in their campaign materials – they criticized the Liberal plan as likely to lead to higher power rates. The basis for these criticisms was unclear. However, a similar attempt to open generation competition in New Brunswick failed, in part because New Brunswick Power retained monopoly control of the distribution and transmission network, which intimidates competitors and makes it easy in practice to exclude them.

Muskrat Falls is a natural 15 metre waterfall located on the lower Churchill River about 25 kilometers west of Happy Valley-Goose Bay, Labrador.

The Lower Churchill Project is a planned hydroelectric project in Labrador, Canada, to develop the remaining 35 per cent of the Churchill River that has not already been developed by the Churchill Falls Generating Station. The Lower Churchill's two installations at Gull Island and Muskrat Falls will have a combined capacity of over 3,074 MW and have the ability to provide 16.7 TWh of electricity per year.

Nova Scotia Power Inc. is a vertically integrated electric utility in Nova Scotia, Canada. It is privately owned by Emera and regulated by the provincial government via the Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board (NSUARB). Nova Scotia Power Inc provides electricity to 500,000 residential, commercial and industrial customers in Nova Scotia.

Other issues in the campaign:

Party standings

Results by party

PartyParty leader# of
candidates
SeatsPopular vote
2009 Dissolution Elected% Change#%Change
  Liberal Stephen McNeil 51111233+200.0%190,11245.71%+18.51pp
  Progressive Conservative Jamie Baillie 5110711+10.0%109,45226.31%+1.77pp
  New Democratic Darrell Dexter 5131317-77.4%111,62226.84%-18.40pp
Green John Percy 160000.0%3,5280.85%-1.49pp
    Independents70000.0%1,2380.30%-0.38pp
 Vacant1 
Total176525251-0.02%415,952100.00%0.00%

Results by region

Party name HRM C.B. Valley S. Shore Fundy Central Total
Parties winning seats in the legislature
  New Democratic Party Seats:22-21-7
  Popular vote: 31.29% 25.16% 17.40% 24.68% 26.26% 31.51% 26.84%
  Liberal Seats:183433233
  Popular vote: 48.72% 46.89% 52.02% 43.55% 40.68% 28.71% 45.71%
  Progressive Conservative Seats:-3212311
  Popular vote: 18.62% 27.69% 27.58% 30.76% 32.01% 39.78% 26.31%
Parties not winning seats in the legislature
Green Popular vote: 0.98% 0.00% 2.11% 1.01% 1.05% 0.00% 0.85%
    Independents Popular vote: 0.39% 0.26% 0.89% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.3%
Total seats:208666551

Retiring incumbents

Liberal

Wayne Gaudet is a Canadian politician. He represented the electoral district of Clare in the Nova Scotia House of Assembly from 1993 to 2013. He is a member of the Nova Scotia Liberal Party.

Clare is a former provincial electoral district in Nova Scotia, Canada which existed between 1949-2013. Prior to 1949, Clare was part of Digby district. It elected one member of the Nova Scotia House of Assembly. In its last configuration, the electoral district included the Municipality of the District of Clare, an Acadian area occupying the southwestern half of Digby County. For four consecutive elections from 1988 to 1999, the district had the highest voter turnout in the province.

Harold A. 'Junior' Theriault is a former Canadian politician and member of the Nova Scotia House of Assembly, who represented the riding of Digby-Annapolis for the Nova Scotia Liberal Party from 2003 to 2013.

New Democratic

Nominated candidates

Annapolis Valley

Electoral DistrictCandidates Incumbent
 NDP Liberal PC Green Independent
Annapolis Henry Spurr Stephen McNeil Ginny Hurlock [20] Ron Neufeld Stephen McNeil
Clare-Digby Dean Kenley Gordon Wilson Paul Emile LeBlanc [21] Ian Thurber Wayne Gaudet
merged district
Harold Theriault
Hants West Brian StephensClaude O'Hara Chuck Porter Torin Buzek Chuck Porter
Kings North Jim Morton Stephen Pearl John Lohr [22] Mary Lou Harley Jim Morton
Kings South Ramona Jennex Keith Irving Shane Buchan [21] Sheila Richardson Ramona Jennex
Kings West Bob Landry Leo Glavine Jody FrowleyBarbara Lake Leo Glavine

South Shore

Electoral DistrictCandidates Incumbent
 NDP Liberal PC Green Independent
Argyle-Barrington Kenn BayntonKent Blades Chris d'Entremont Chris d'Entremont
Chester-St. Margaret's Denise Peterson-Rafuse Tim HarrisJanet Irwin [21] Denise Peterson-Rafuse
Lunenburg Pam Birdsall Suzanne Lohnes-Croft Brian Pickings Pam Birdsall
Lunenburg West Gary Ramey Mark Furey David Mitchell [21] Robert Pierce Gary Ramey
Queens-Shelburne Sterling Belliveau Benson FrailBruce Inglis [23] Madeline Taylor Sterling Belliveau
merged district
Vicki Conrad
Yarmouth Charles Webster Zach Churchill John CunninghamVanessa Goodwin-Clairmont Zach Churchill

Fundy-Northeast

Electoral DistrictCandidates Incumbent
 NDP Liberal PC Green Independent
Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley Gary Burrill Tom Martin Larry Harrison [24] Gary Burrill
Colchester North Jim Wyatt Karen Casey John MacDonald [21] Karen Casey
Cumberland North Brian Skabar Terry Farrell Judith Giroux [21] Jason Blanch Brian Skabar
Cumberland South Larry Duchesne Kenny Jackson Jamie Baillie [21] Bruce McCulloch Jamie Baillie
Hants East John MacDonell Margaret Miller Kim Williams [25] John MacDonell
Truro–Bible Hill–Millbrook–Salmon River Lenore Zann Barry MellishCharles Cox [21] Lenore Zann

Central Halifax

Electoral DistrictCandidates Incumbent
 NDP Liberal PC Green Independent
Clayton Park West Blake Wright Diana Whalen Jaime D. Allen Diana Whalen
Fairview-Clayton Park Abad Khan Patricia Arab Travis PriceRaland Kinley Katie Campbell New Riding
Halifax Armdale Drew Moore Lena Diab Irvine Carvery Graham Steele
Halifax Chebucto Gregor Ash Joachim Stroink [26] Christine Dewell [21] Michael Marshall Howard Epstein
Halifax Citadel-Sable Island Leonard Preyra Labi Kousoulis Andrew BlackBrynn HorleyFrederic Boileau-Cadieux Leonard Preyra
Halifax Needham Maureen MacDonald Chris PooleMary Hamblin [27] Kris MacLellan Maureen MacDonald

Suburban Halifax

Electoral DistrictCandidates Incumbent
 NDP Liberal PC Green Independent
Bedford Mike Poworoznyk Kelly Regan Joan Christie [28] Ian Charles Kelly Regan
Halifax Atlantic Tanis Crosby Brendan Maguire Ryan Brennan Michèle Raymond
Hammonds Plains-Lucasville Peter Lund Ben Jessome Gina Byrne [29] Jonathan Dean New Riding
Sackville-Beaver Bank Mat Whynott Stephen Gough Sarah Reeves [30] Mat Whynott
Sackville-Cobequid Dave Wilson Graham CameronPeter Mac Isaac [31] John Percy Dave Wilson
Timberlea-Prospect Linda Moxsom-Skinner Iain Rankin Bruce Pretty Thomas Trappenberg Bill Estabrooks
Waverley-Fall River-Beaver Bank Percy Paris Bill Horne [32] Brian Wong [33] Percy Paris

Dartmouth/Cole Harbour/Eastern Shore

Electoral DistrictCandidates Incumbent
 NDP Liberal PC Green Independent
Cole Harbour-Eastern Passage Becky Kent Joyce Treen [34] Lloyd Jackson Becky Kent
Cole Harbour-Portland Valley Darrell Dexter Tony Ince Greg Frampton Darrell Dexter
Dartmouth East Deborah Stover Andrew Younger Mike MacDonell Andrew Younger
Dartmouth North Steve Estey Joanne Bernard Sean BrownlowVacant
Dartmouth South Mary Vingoe Allan Rowe Gord Gamble [35] Jim Murray Marilyn More
Eastern Shore Sid Prest Kevin Murphy [36] Stephen Brine Sid Prest
Preston-Dartmouth Andre Cain Keith Colwell Andrew Mecke Keith Colwell

Central Nova

Electoral DistrictCandidates Incumbent
 NDP Liberal PC Green Independent
Antigonish Maurice Smith Randy Delorey [37] Darren Thompson Maurice Smith
Guysborough–Eastern Shore–Tracadie Jim Boudreau Lloyd Hines [38] Neil DeCoff Jim Boudreau
Pictou Centre Ross Landry Bill Muirhead Pat Dunn [39] Ross Landry
Pictou East Clarrie MacKinnon Francois Rochon Tim Houston [40] Clarrie MacKinnon
Pictou West Charlie Parker Glennie Langille Karla MacFarlane [41] Charlie Parker

Cape Breton

Electoral DistrictCandidates Incumbent
 NDP Liberal PC Green Independent
Cape Breton Centre Frank Corbett David Wilton [42] Edna Lee [43] Frank Corbett
Cape Breton-Richmond Bert Lewis Michel Samson Joe Janega [44] Michel Samson
Glace Bay Mary Beth MacDonald Geoff MacLellan Tom Bethell Geoff MacLellan
Inverness Michelle SmithJackie Rankin [45] Allan MacMaster Allan MacMaster
Northside-Westmount Cecil SnowJohn Higgins [46] Eddie Orrell Eddie Orrell
Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg Delton McDonaldJosephine Kennedy [47] Alfie MacLeod Alfie MacLeod
Sydney-Whitney Pier Gordie Gosse Derek Mombourquette [48] Leslie MacPhee Gordie Gosse
merged district
Vacant
Victoria-The Lakes John Frank Toney Pam Eyking [49] Keith Bain Stemer MacLeod Keith Bain

Opinion polls

Polling FirmLast Day of PollingLink NDP Liberal PC Green
Election 2013 HTML 26.8445.7126.310.85
Forum Research PDF 2648233
Forum Research PDF 2847232
Abacus Data PDF 2646271
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Abacus Data PDF 2748241
Forum Research PDF 2846242
Abacus Data PDF 2846251
Corporate Research Associates HTML 3147202
Corporate Research Associates HTML 2952172
Abacus Data PDF 2850221
Corporate Research Associates HTML 2754172
Abacus Data PDF 2651231
Corporate Research Associates HTML 2855162
Corporate Research Associates HTML 2756152
Corporate Research Associates HTML 2457172
Corporate Research Associates HTML 2656172
Corporate Research Associates HTML 2655162
Corporate Research Associates HTML 2756162
Corporate Research Associates HTML 2953172
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Corporate Research Associates HTML 2949202
Corporate Research Associates HTML 2949212
Corporate Research Associates HTML 2948212
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Corporate Research Associates HTML 2847232
Corporate Research Associates HTML 2848232
Corporate Research Associates PDF 3141253
Corporate Research Associates PDF 2645263
Corporate Research Associates PDF 3239245
Corporate Research Associates PDF 2941273
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Corporate Research Associates PDF 3533284
Corporate Research Associates PDF 4427253
Corporate Research Associates PDF 4522294
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Corporate Research Associates PDF 4222314
Corporate Research Associates PDF 3435264
Corporate Research Associates PDF 3831264
Corporate Research Associates PDF 3735217
Corporate Research Associates PDF 3735244
Corporate Research Associates PDF 4626225
Corporate Research Associates HTML 5322214
Corporate Research Associates PDF 6018166
Election 2009 PDF 45.2427.2024.542.34

Analysis

On election night, the Liberal Party formed a majority government by a comfortable margin. This was the first time the Liberals had formed government in Nova Scotia since 1999, and their first majority government victory since the 1993 election. From mid 2012, the Liberals had led every public poll and entered the campaign with a 20-point lead over the New Democratic Party (NDP).

While the Liberals had been relatively successful in the Annapolis Valley and on Cape Breton Island during the 2009 election, they were completely shut out of the South Shore, Fundy, and Central Nova Scotia. More importantly, the NDP had dominated the Halifax metropolitan area, winning 14 out of 20 seats. In 2009, the NDP had been able to count on a large number of ridings in and around Halifax, while achieving historic gains across the province, including in traditionally Progressive Conservative (PC) and Liberal areas of rural Nova Scotia. In 2009, the PCs fell from first place to third place in the Legislature, and were completely shut out of the Halifax metropolitan area.

In the 2013 election, NDP support collapsed across the province, as it lost all of its seats in Central Nova Scotia, three of its seats in Fundy, and three of its seats on the South Shore. However, the most important shift was in the Halifax metropolitan area, where NDP support dropped from 54.07% in 2009 to 31.29% in 2013. The party wound up losing 13 of its seats, as the Liberals won 18 of 20 seats in and around Halifax. Strong NDP areas in 2009, like Dartmouth, Central Halifax, and suburban areas north and east of the Harbour swung from the NDP to the Liberals. Among the casualties was Dexter, who lost his own seat to Liberal challenger Tony Ince by 21 votes. He was the first premier since Ernest Armstrong to be defeated in his own riding.

The NDP had very poor vote concentration in the 2013 election. In Halifax, where it won 31.29% of the vote, it won only two seats. While the party finished second in the popular vote ahead of the PCs, its support was spread out around the province and not concentrated in enough areas to translate into seats. Combined with its collapse in Halifax, this left the NDP with only seven seats to the Tories' 11.

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