Opinion polling in United Kingdom constituencies (2010–2015)

Last updated

Prior to the 2015 general election, various polling organisations conducted opinion polling in specific constituencies. The results of publicised opinion polling for individual constituencies are detailed in this article. However, most opinion polling covers Great Britain, where the results are published in this article here.

Contents

Opinion polls were conducted gradually from the months after the previous general election held on 6 May 2010, and increased in frequency before the general election which took place on 7 May 2015. Though most opinion polls published are for general election voting intention, some polls shown are for voting intention in separate by-elections.

Polls of individual constituencies are expensive compared to national polling and were previously an infrequent practice in the UK. However, a large number of individual constituency polls were carried out in this period, most commissioned from independent polling providers by Lord Ashcroft, a Conservative peer and sponsor. In addition to polls listed in this article, other polling of constituencies has been carried out in private, often by political parties. [1]

Given the expense of polling individual constituencies, constituencies are usually only polled if they are of some particular interest, e.g. they are thought to be marginal or facing an impending by-election. The constituencies polled are not necessarily representative of a national average swing. Under the first-past-the-post electoral system true marginal seats are, by definition, decisive as to the election outcome. [2]

Constituency polls

England

Amber Valley

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab Lib Dem UKIP Green Others Lead
7 May 20152015 result44.0%34.8%3.0%15.9%2.4%–9.2%
3–12 Jul 2014 Ashcroft 1,00034%35%4%23%3%2%1%
14–20 Apr 2014 Ashcroft 1,00029%41%6%20%2%2%12%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 45,95838.6%37.4%14.4%2.0%–7.6%1.2%

Bedford

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab Lib Dem UKIP Green Others Lead
7 May 20152015 result42.6%40.2%4.2%9.6%3.1%0.3%2.4%
23–30 Jul 2014 Ashcroft 1,00028%38%14%15%3%2%10%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 45,10238.9%35.9%19.9%2.5%0.9%2.0%3.0%

Bermondsey and Old Southwark

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab Lib Dem UKIP Green Others Lead
7 May 20152015 result11.8%43.1%34.3%6.3%3.9%0.5%8.7%
3–13 Sep 2014 Ashcroft 1,00014%35%36%9%5%2%1%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 44,65117.1%29.2%48.4%–1.6%3.7%19.1%

Berwick-upon-Tweed

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab Lib Dem UKIP Green Others Lead
7 May 20152015 result41.1%14.9%28.9%11.2%3.7%0.2%12.2%
21–28 Aug 2014 Ashcroft 1,00033%16%30%17%3%1%3%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 38,43936.7%13.2%43.7%3.2%–3.2%7%

Birmingham Edgbaston

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con Lib Dem UKIP Green Others Lead
7 May 2015 General Election Results 41,29344.8%38.3%2.9%10.1%3.3%3.5%3.4%
31 Jul–11 Aug 2014 Ashcroft 100148%29%3%12%5%1%19%
12–18 May 2014 Ashcroft 100044%33%5%13%4%1%11%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 41,57140.6%37.6%15.4%1.8%1.1%3.6%3.1%

Birmingham Yardley

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con Lib Dem UKIP Green Others Lead
7 May 2015 General Election Results 41,31341.6%14.0%25.6%16.1%1.7%1.0%16.0%
27–31 Oct 2014 Ashcroft 1,00031%12%34%19%2%1%3%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 40,85032.2%19.2%39.6%2.9%––7.3%

Blackpool North and Cleveleys

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con Lib Dem UKIP Green Others Lead
7 May 2015 General Election Results 39,39336.0%44.4%2.4%14.8%2.3%0.1%8.5%
30 Mar–4 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,00037%42%3%15%2%1%5%
13–18 Oct 2014 Ashcroft 1,00032%35%5%24%3%1%3%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 40,59136.5%41.8%13.3%4.1%-4.3%5.3%

Bognor Regis and Littlehampton

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con LD UKIP Lab Others Lead
7 May 2015 General Election Results 47,11651.3%9.0%21.7%13.8%4.1%27.9%
22–24 Nov 2013 Survation/Alan Bown 50837%11%27%20%5%10%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 46,85251.4%23.5%6.5%14.0%4.5%27.9%

Bolton West

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
7 May 2015 General Election Results 47,57639.0%40.6%4.0%15.3%-1.1%1.6%
23–31 Jul 2014 Ashcroft 1,00040%27%8%21%2%2%13%
21–27 Apr 2014 Ashcroft 1,00141%28%10%17%2%1%13%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 47,57638.5%38.3%17.2%4.0%1.1%0.8%0.2%

Boston and Skegness

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con LD UKIP Lab Green IFE BNP Others Lead
7 May 2015 General Election Results 43,33943.8%2.3%33.8%16.5%1.8%0.7%0.3%0.7%10%
26 Jan–5 Feb 2015 Ashcroft 1,00038%5%35%17%3%––2%3%
5–9 Sep 2014 Survation/Alan Bown 34226.2%2.0%45.5%20.8%3.2%1.0%1.0%0.4%19.3%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 43,12549.4%14.8%9.5%20.6%––5.3%0.4%28.8%

Bradford East

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green BNP Others Lead
7 May 2015 General Election Results 41,40646.6%11.3%29.3%9.9%2.1%-0.5%17.1%
1–21 Jun 2014 Ashcroft 1,00045%12%23%15%2%–3%22%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 40,45732.8%26.8%33.7%––4.6%2.0%0.9%

Brent Central

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
7 May 2015 General Election Results 45,32462.1%20.3%8.4%3.9%4.1%1.2%41.8%
11–22 Jun 2014 Ashcroft 1,00154%13%19%7%5%1%35%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 45,32441.2%11.2%44.2%–1.5%2%3.0%

Brentford and Isleworth

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
17–26 Sep 2014 Ashcroft 1,00132%45%10%7%4%1%13%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 53,76537.2%33.6%23.7%1.6%1.5%2.4%3.6%

Brighton Kemptown

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
7 May 2015 General Election Results 45,30639.2%40.7%3.0%9.8%7.0%0.4%1.5%
11–21 Sep 2014 Ashcroft 1,00037%33%6%13%10%1%4%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 42,70534.9%38.0%18.0%3.2%5.5%0.5%3.1%

Brighton Pavilion

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Green Lab Con LD UKIP Others Lead
7 May 2015 General Election Results 54,67641.8%27.3%22.8%2.8%5.0%0.4%14.6%
11–20 Nov 2014 Ashcroft 1,00138%28%21%5%8%1%10%
5–12 Jun 2014 Ashcroft 1,00032%33%18%5%9%2%1%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 51,83431.3%28.9%23.7%13.8%1.8%0.4%2.4%

Bristol North West

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
17-23 April 2015 Ashcroft 1,00534%43%8%8%6%0%9%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 50,33625.9%38.0%32.5%2.3%1.0%1.3%5.5%

Bristol West

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
7 May 2015 General Election Results 64,21835.7%15.2%18.8%3.0%26.8%0.4%8.8%
17-23 April 2015 Ashcroft 1,00138%14%20%2%25%1%13%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 55,34727.5%18.4%48.0%1.2%3.8%1.1%20.5%

Broxtowe

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green BNP Others Lead
26 Jun–4 Jul 2014 Ashcroft 1,00030%39%7%18%4%1%1%9%
8–13 Apr 2014 Ashcroft 1,00030%44%10%13%1%1%1%14%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 52,72739.0%38.3%16.9%2.3%0.8%2.7%–0.7%

Burnley

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green BNP Others Lead
27–30 Oct 2014 Ashcroft 1,00111%38%23%25%2%1%1%13%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 41,84516.6%31.3%35.7%2.2%–9.0%5.2%4.3%

Bury North

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
2-14 October 2014 Ashcroft 1,00432%41%5%20%2%1%9%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 44,96140.2%35.2%17%2.9%-4.8%5%

Camborne and Redruth

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green MK OMRLP Others Lead
24–26 Mar 2015 Ashcroft 1,00137%24%13%14%8%––3%13%
25 Nov 2014 Survation/University of Exeter 50030.0%22.4%6.3%33.0%6.9%0.9%0.4%0.1%3%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 42,49337.6%16.3%37.4%5.1%1.4%1.8%–0.4%0.2%

Cambridge

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
24–28 Mar 2015 Ashcroft 100017%31%40%3%9%–9%
3–12 Sep 2014 Ashcroft 100019%33%32%7%8%1%1%
4–8 Apr 2014 ICM/Lord Oakeshott 50018%41%28%5%5%2%13%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 50,13025.6%24.3%39.1%2.4%7.6%1.0%13.5%

Cannock Chase

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green BNP Others Lead
16–24 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,00238%32%5%21%3%–1%6%
22–27 Oct 2014 Ashcroft 1,00032%27%8%30%2%–1%2%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 45,55933.1%40.1%17.0%3.5%–4.8%1.6%7%

Carlisle

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
11-16 Jul 2014 Ashcroft 1,00130%41%5%18%3%3%11%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 42,20039.3%37.3%15.6%2.3%1.5%4.1%2.0%

Carshalton and Wallington

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
29 Oct–6 Nov 2014 Ashcroft 1,00012%23%43%17%3%1%20%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 45,9188.7%36.8%48.3%2.9%0.8%2.4%11.5%

Castle Point

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
15–24 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,00012%41%2%36%3%5%5%
26 Jan–5 Feb 2015 Ashcroft 1,00216%37%3%36%2%6%1%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 45,02614.7%44.0%9.4%–-31.9%17.0%

Cheadle

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
15–22 Aug 2014 Ashcroft 1,00019%30%34%13%2%3%4%
26 May-1 Jun 2014 Ashcroft 1,00321%29%32%15%2%1%3%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 52,5129.4%40.8%47.1%2.7%––6.3%

Cheltenham

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
27 Oct-1 Nov 2014 Ashcroft 1,0007%34%42%11%5%1%8%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 52,7685.1%41.2%50.5%2.3%–0.99.3%

Chippenham

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
14-20 Aug 2014 Ashcroft 1,00039%14%24%16%6%1%15%
26 May-1 Jun 2014 Ashcroft 1,00035%12%26%19%7%1%9%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 52,38541.0%6.9%45.8%3.4%0.9%2%4.8%

City of Chester

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
26 Feb-5 Mar 2015 Ashcroft 1,00045%34%7%10%3%1%11%
13–18 Oct 2014 Ashcroft 1,00037%36%7%15%5%1%1%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 46,85335.1%40.6%19.1%2.6%1.1%1.5%5.5%

Clacton

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab UKIP LD Green Others Lead
7 May 2015 General Election Results 44,20736.7%14.4%44.4%1.8%1.9%-7.8%
9 Oct 2014 Clacton by-election Result 35,36524.6%11.2%59.7%1.4%2.7%1.2%35.1%
29 Aug–1 Sep 2014 Ashcroft 1,00127%19%48%3%3%<0.5%21%
29 Aug–1 Sep 2014 Ashcroft (By-election polling) 1,00124%16%56%2%1%1%32%
28–29 Aug 2014 Survation (By-election polling) 70020%13%64%2%1%<0.5%44%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 43,12353.0%25.0%–12.9%1.2%7.8%28.0%

Cleethorpes

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
2-11 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,00138%36%6%15%3%1%2%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 44,96642.1%32.6%18.2%7.1%-3.9%9.5%

Colchester

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
4–14 Nov 2014 Ashcroft 1,00017%22%36%18%6%1%14%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 46,13912.3%32.9%48.0%2.9%1.5%2.4%15.1%

Colne Valley

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
16–22 April 2015 Ashcroft 1,00035%37%8%11%6%2%2%
2–12 Feb 2015 Ashcroft 1,00034%33%9%13%9%1%1%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 55,29626.4%37.0%28.2%2.1%1.6%4.7%8.7%

Corby

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
10–17 Sep 2014 Ashcroft 1,00040%30%5%21%2%2%10%
15 Nov 2012 Corby by-election Result 35,66548.4%26.6%5.0%14.3%1.1%4.6%21.8%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 54,18038.6%42.2%14.5%––4.7%3.6%

Crewe and Nantwich

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab UKIP LD Others Lead
2–9 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,00038%41%13%4%1%3%
22–24 Nov 2013 Survation/Alan Bown 50033%46%11%6%5%13%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 51,08445.8%34.0%2.8%15.0%2.3%11.8%

Croydon Central

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab UKIP LD Green Others Lead
26-30 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,00344%40%10%2%3%0%4%
3–12 Mar 2015 Ashcroft 1,00037%41%13%3%5%1%4%
14–18 Oct 2014 Ashcroft 1,00033%39%19%4%4%1%6%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 49,75739.5%33.5%2.0%13.2%1.2%10.6%6.0%

Derby North

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
28 May-4 Jun 2014 Ashcroft 1,00023%44%17%12%2%2%21%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 45,08031.7%33%28%1.8%–5.4%1.3%

Dewsbury

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
15-23 Jul 2014 Ashcroft 1,00030%40%4%18%6%3%10%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 54,00835%32.2%16.9%-1.6%14.3%2.8%

Doncaster North

Note: Michael Ashcroft initially published incorrect results for his 18–23 Nov 2014 poll, [3] erroneously showing only a small Labour lead. The corrected poll results are below.

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green BNP Others Lead
18–23 Nov 2014 Ashcroft, Corrected 1,00013%54%4%25%2%1%2%29%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 41,48321.0%47.3%14.9%4.3%–6.8%5.6%26.3%

Dover

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
2-9 April 2015 Ashcroft 1,00232%40%3%20%4%-8%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 50,38533.5%44%15.8%3.5%-3.2%10.5%

Dudley North

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con UKIP LD Others Lead
20–27 Nov 2014 Ashcroft 1,00137%24%34%3%3%3%
28 Apr–4 May 2014 Ashcroft 1,00040%24%27%4%5%13%
22–24 Nov 2013 Survation 52645%25%23%2%5%20%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 38,60238.7%37.0%8.5%10.5%5.3%1.7%

Dudley South

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Lead
7-10 April 2015 Ashcroft 1,00035%39%3%18%4%4%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 38,16533%43.1%15.7%8.2%-10.1%

Ealing Central and Acton

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
1–6 Dec 2014 Ashcroft 1,00034%40%11%6%7%2%6%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 47,20038.0%30.1%27.6%1.6%1.6%1.0%7.9%

Eastbourne

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
27 Aug-5 Sep 2014 Ashcroft 1,0007%25%46%18%2%2%21%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 52,1424.8%40.7%47.3%2.5%-4.6%6.6%

Eastleigh

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size LD Con UKIP Lab Green Others Lead
20–28 Aug 2014 Ashcroft 53840%25%21%12%2%1%15%
29 May–6 Jun 2014 Ashcroft 52339%27%22%10%2%0%12%
14–17 Apr 2014 Survation/Alan Bown 36927.1%28.2%31.6%11.5%1.0%0.6%3.4%
28 Feb 2013 Eastleigh by-election Result 42,64932.1%25.4%27.8%9.8%–4.9%4.3%
22–24 Feb 2013 Ashcroft (By-election polling) [lower-alpha 1] 41633%28%23%12%–4%5%
19–22 Feb 2013 Populus/Times (By-election polling) [lower-alpha 1] 40833%28%25%11%–4%5%
18–22 Feb 2013 Survation/Mail on Sunday (By-election polling) 40229%33%21%13%–4%4%
6–8 Feb 2013 Survation/Mail on Sunday [lower-alpha 2] 32136%33%16%13%0.3%0.1%3%
4–5 Feb 2013 Ashcroft (By-election polling) [lower-alpha 3] 31431%34%15%19%1%1%3%
2–5 Aug 2010 Ashcroft 51331%43%–20%–6%12%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 53,65046.5%39.3%3.6%9.6%–1.0%7.2%

Elmet and Rothwell

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
8–13 Dec 2014 Ashcroft 1,00039%35%6%16%3%1%4%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 55,78942.6%34.5%16.3%2.9%–3.6%8.1%

Enfield North

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
17–25 Sep 2014 Ashcroft 1,00034%44%3%12%3%3%10%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 44,45342.3%38.5%12.2%2.1%1.1%3.9%3.8%

Erewash

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
3-14 Oct 2014 Ashcroft 1,00330%38%5%22%3%2%8%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 47,64239.5%34.2%17.5%1.8%1.1%2.9%5.3%

Finchley and Golders Green

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Lead
7-11 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,00143%41%6%6%4%2%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 47,15733.7%46%17%1.7%1.6%12.3%

Folkestone and Hythe

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con LD UKIP Lab Green Others Lead
3–4 Apr 2014 Survation/Mail on Sunday 52936.4%9.6%32.9%17.8%1.9%1.5%3.5%
22–24 Nov 2013 Survation/Alan Bown 54835%10%28%21%4%2%7%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 52,80049.4%30.3%4.6%10.8%1.2%3.6%19.1%

Gloucester

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
24 Mar–4 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,00140%36%9%12%3%1%4%
24 Sep–2 Oct 2014 Ashcroft 1,00034%33%12%18%3%0%1%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 50,76439.9%35.2%19.2%3.6%1%1.1%4.8%

Great Grimsby

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con UKIP LD Others Lead
15–24 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 100042%24%25%5%4%17%
20–27 Nov 2014 Ashcroft 1,00135%20%34%8%4%1%
5–11 May 2014 Ashcroft 1,00138%21%26%10%5%12%
18–22 Oct 2013 Survation 50640%21%23%11%5%17%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 32,95432.7%30.5%6.2%22.4%8.1%2.2%

Great Yarmouth

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab UKIP LD Green Others Lead
15–24 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,00036%34%24%2%4%1%2%
11–16 Jul 2014 Ashcroft 1,00033%28%32%3%3%1%1%
21–27 Apr 2014 Ashcroft 1,00132%31%29%5%2%1%1%
22–24 Nov 2013 Survation/Alan Bown 50727%37%30%3%2%7%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 43,05743.1%33.2%4.8%14.4%1.0%3.5%9.9%

Halesowen and Rowley Regis

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
24 Feb–5 Mar 2015 Ashcroft 1,00037%39%4%15%3%2%2%
24 Sep–3 Oct 2014 Ashcroft 1,00034%35%2%24%4%1%1%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 43,97941.2%36.6%14.8%6.4%–1.0%4.6%

Halifax

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
12–18 May 2014 Ashcroft 1,00043%26%8%18%2%3%17%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 43,55537.4%34%19.1%1.5%-8%3.4%

Hampstead and Kilburn

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab UKIP LD Green Others Lead
23 Jul–3 Aug 2014 Ashcroft 1,00030%47%2%13%6%1%17%
21–27 Apr 2014 Ashcroft 1,00330%41%3%19%6%0%11%
6 May 2010 General Election Result 52,82232.7%32.8%0.8%31.2%1.4%1%0.1%

Harlow

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
2-10 April 2015 Ashcroft 1,00034%44%3%16%2%1%10%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 53,87833.7%44.9%13.7%3.6%-4.2%11.2%

Harrogate and Knaresborough

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
5-12 Jun 2014 Ashcroft 1,00011%41%24%16%8%0%17%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 53,1346.4%45.7%43.8%2%-2.1%1.9%

Harrow East

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
31 Mar–4 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,00140%44%4%8%3%1%4%
1–7 Dec 2014 Ashcroft 1,00040%37%6%13%3%0%3%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 48,00644.7%37.6%14.3%1.9%1.7%–7.1%

Hastings and Rye

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
17-25 Sep 2014 Ashcroft 1,00140%31%5%19%3%1%9%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 49,81437.1%41.1%15.7%2.8%-3.3%4%

Hazel Grove

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Lead
4–15 Nov 2014 Ashcroft 1,00015%29%35%17%4%6%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 41,98112.5%33.6%48.8%5.1%–15.2%

Hendon

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
18–29 Jun 2014 Ashcroft 1,00134%49%4%9%1%1%15%
31 Mar–6 Apr 2014 Ashcroft 1,00036%44%7%11%2%1%8%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 46,37442.3%42.1%12.4%2.1%1.1%–0.2%

Heywood and Middleton

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
9 Oct 2014 Heywood and Middleton by-election Result 28,47240.9%12.3%5.1%38.7%3.1%–2.2%
30 Sep–4 Oct 2014 Ashcroft (By-election polling) 1,00047%16%5%28%4%–19%
30 Sep 2014 Survation/The Sun (By-election polling) 55150%13%4%31%3%–19%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 46,12540.1%27.2%22.7%2.6%-7.4%12.9%

High Peak

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
17-23 April 2015 Ashcroft 1,00038%40%7%10%5%1%2%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 50,33731.6%40.9%21.8%3.4%1.8%0.4%9.3%

Hornsey and Wood Green

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
3 Mar 2015 Liberal Democrats
(fieldwork by Survation) 		32515%37%36%4%7%1%1%
3–13 Sep 2014 Ashcroft 1,00014%43%30%3%8%1%13%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 55,04216.7%34.0%46.5%–2.3%0.6%12.5%

Hove

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
7 May 2015 General Election Results 52,21439.9%42.3%3.6%6.3%6.8%1.1%2.4%
1–4 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,00237%43%5%5%9%1%6%
17–27 Sep 2014 Ashcroft 1,00034%37%6%11%12%-3%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 49,81936.7%33.0%22.6%2.4%5.2%0.2%3.7%

Ipswich

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
24 Sep-2 Oct 2014 Ashcroft 1,00038%31%6%19%5%1%7%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 46,29134.7%39.1%18.2%2.9%1.7%3.3%4.4%

Keighley

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
20-26 Oct 2014 Ashcroft 1,00037%31%5%23%3%1%6%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 47,69235.8%41.9%14.8%3.1%-4.4%6.1%

Kingston and Surbiton

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
29 Oct–8 Nov 2014 Ashcroft 1,00030%16%38%10%6%1%8%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 57,11136.5%9.3%49.8%2.5%1%0.8%13.3%

Kingswood

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
28 Mar–3 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,00142%33%5%15%4%1%9%
3-14 Oct 2014 Ashcroft 1,00134%32%6%23%4%1%2%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 47,90640.4%35.3%16.8%3.2%0.8%3.4%5.1%

Lancaster and Fleetwood

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
26 Jun-4 Jul 2014 Ashcroft 1,00027%41%4%18%10%1%14%
8-13 Apr 2014 Ashcroft 1,00229%43%6%12%9%1%14%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 42,70136.1%35.2%19.1%4.4%–2.7%0.8%

Lewes

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
7 May 2015 General Election Results 50,54038.0%9.9%35.9%10.7%5.5%-2.1%
11-20 Nov 2014 Ashcroft 1,00029%9%37%15%7%2%8%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 50,08836.7%5%52%3.4%1.5%1.4%15.3%

Lincoln

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
14-21 Jul 2014 Ashcroft 1,00039%35%6%17%3%1%4%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 45,72135.2%37.5%20.2%2.2%-4.8%2.3%

Loughborough

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
31 Mar–3 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,00045%36%3%12%3%1%9%
22-25 Oct 2014 Ashcroft 1,00040%37%5%12%3%3%3%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 52,83841.6%34.5%18.3%1.8%-3.9%7.1%

Manchester Withington

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
11–21 Jun 2014 Ashcroft 1,00056%7%22%4%10%1%34%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 45,07540.5%11.1%44.6%1.5%1.8%0.4%4.1%

Mid Dorset and North Poole

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
31 Jul–9 Aug 2014 Ashcroft 1,00038%8%32%19%3%1%6%
12–18 May 2014 Ashcroft 1,00039%8%32%17%3%1%7%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 46,78844.5%5.9%45.1%4.5%--0.6%

Milton Keynes South

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
7-10 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,00037%39%8%10%4%2%2%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 55,33341.6%32.2%17.7%3.7%1.4%3.3%9.4%

Morecambe and Lunesdale

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
1-4 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,00036%42%5%12%5%1%6%
7-11 Jul 2014 Ashcroft 1,00134%37%6%18%4%2%3%
14-20 Apr 2014 Ashcroft 1,00037%39%5%12%3%1%2%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 43,43641.5%39.5%13.3%4.2%1.4%-2%

Morley and Outwood

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
5–11 May 2014 Ashcroft 1,00341%24%5%20%2%8%17%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 48,85637.6%35.3%16.8%3.1%-7.2%2.3%

Newark

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Others Lead
5 Jun 2014 Newark by-election Result 38,70745.0%17.7%3%25.9%8%19%
2–3 Jun 2014 Survation 67842%22%4%27%5%15%
27 May–1 Jun 2014 Ashcroft (By-election polling) 1,00042%20%6%27%5%15%
27–28 May 2014 Survation/The Sun 60636%27%5%28%5%8%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 51,22853.9%22.3%20.0%3.8%–31.5%

Newton Abbot

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
5-12 Jun 2014 Ashcroft 1,00013%39%20%20%7%1%19%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 48,2837%43%41.9%6.4%1.5%1.1%1.1%

North Cornwall

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
24-29 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,00236%5%38%14%5%3%2%
12-20 Mar 2015 Ashcroft 1,00436%6%38%13%6%1%2%
15-20 Aug 2014 Ashcroft 1,00033%10%33%20%3%1%Tied
26 May-1 Jun 2014 Ashcroft 1,00131%8%31%24%5%2%Tied
6 May 2010 General Election Results 46,84441.7%4.2%48.1%4.9%-1.1%6.4%

North Devon

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
24-26 Mar 2015 Ashcroft 1,00138%8%31%16%6%2%7%
29 Oct-6 Nov 2014 Ashcroft 1,00030%9%29%23%7%2%1%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 51,32136%7.2%47.4%7.2%1.4%2.8%11.4%

North East Cambridgeshire

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
26 Jan–5 Feb 2015 Ashcroft 1,00017%46%7%25%4%1%21%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 52,06417.8%51.6%20%5.4%-5.2%31.6%

North East Somerset

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
7-11 April 2015 Ashcroft 1,00128%44%9%10%8%1%16%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 51,20331.7%41.3%22.3%3.4%1.3%-9.6%

North Warwickshire

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
18–28 Jun 2014 Ashcroft 1,00041%30%2%22%2%2%11%
31 Mar–6 Apr 2014 Ashcroft 1,00143%35%3%15%3%1%8%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 47,26540.1%40.2%11.6%2.8%–0.9%0.1%

Norwich North

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
24-30 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,00038%36%6%12%8%1%2%
4–12 Feb 2015 Ashcroft 1,00035%34%5%18%10%0%1%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 42,57331.4%40.6%18.3%4.4%2.9%2.4%9.2%

Norwich South

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
11–21 Jun 2014 Ashcroft 1,00033%18%12%15%20%1%13%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 47,55128.7%22.9%29.4%2.4%14.9%1.7%0.7%

Nuneaton

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green BNP Others Lead
26 Feb-5 Mar 2015 Ashcroft 1,00039%34%4%14%8%–1%5%
24 Sep–3 Oct 2014 Ashcroft 1,00039%36%3%19%2%–1%3%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 44,64636.9%41.5%15.3%––6.3%-4.6%

Oxford West and Abingdon

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
21–28 Aug 2014 Ashcroft 1,00018%38%30%9%4%<0.5%8%
30 May–5 Jun 2014 Ashcroft 1,00018%36%25%11%8%1%11%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 56,48010.6%42.3%42.0%2.7%2.1%0.3%0.3%

Pendle

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
31 Mar–4 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,00041%37%8%10%4%1%4%
8–14 Dec 2014 Ashcroft 1,00036%33%11%17%2%1%3%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 45,04538.9%30.9%20.2%3.3%–6.7%8.0%

Plymouth Moor View

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
15–23 Jul 2014 Ashcroft 50635%26%5%30%2%1%5%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 41,52637.2%33.3%16.9%7.7%1.0%4.0%3.8%

Plymouth Sutton & Devonport

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
15–23 Jul 2014 Ashcroft 50639%26%6%21%8%1%8%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 43,89431.7%34.3%24.7%6.5%2.1%0.7%2.6%

Portsmouth South

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
29 Oct–6 Nov 2014 Ashcroft 1,00120%30%25%17%6%1%5%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 41,26413.7%33.3%45.9%2.1%1.7%3.4%12.6%

Redcar

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
27 Aug–6 Sep 2014 Ashcroft 1,00044%12%18%23%2%1%21%
17–19 Apr 2014 ICM/Lord Oakeshott 50047%15%15%19%2%2%28%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 41,96332.7%13.8%45.2%4.5%–3.8%12.5%

Rochester and Strood

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
15–22 April 2015 Ashcroft 100036%24%3%33%4%1%3%
20 Nov 2014 Rochester and Strood by-election Result 40,06534.8%16.8%0.9%42.1%4.2%2.2%7.3%
7–10 Nov 2014 Ashcroft 54336%21%2%35%5%1%1%
7–10 Nov 2014 Ashcroft (By-election polling) 54332%17%2%44%4% [lower-alpha 4] 1%12%
27–28 Oct 2014 Survation 1,01233%16%1%48%1.7%2%15%
17–21 Oct 2014 ComRes [ permanent dead link ] [lower-alpha 5] 94930%21%3%43%2%1%13%
4 Oct 2014 Survation/Mail on Sunday 67731%25%2%40%1%0.4%9%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 47,97149.2%28.5%16.3%–1.5%4.5%20.7%

Rother Valley

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab UKIP LD Green BNP Others Lead
24–29 Nov 2014 Ashcroft 48018%40%34%4%3%<0.5%2%6%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 46,76828.4%40.9%5.6%17.3%–7.7%–12.5%

Sheffield Hallam

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
4 May 2015 ICM/Guardian 150135%12%42%7%3%2%7%
22–28 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,00037%15%36%7%4%1%1%
22–28 Mar 2015 Ashcroft 1,00136%16%34%7%6%1%2%
22–29 Jan 2015 Survation/Unite 1,01133%22%23%9%12%<0.5%10%
20–22 Nov 2014 Ashcroft 96230%19%27% [lower-alpha 6] 13%10%1%3%
29 Apr–4 May 2014 ICM/Lord Oakeshott 50033%24%23%10%8%1%9%
1–4 Oct 2010 Populus/Ashcroft 1,00031%28%33%N/AN/A8%2%
6 May 2010 General Election Result 51,13516.1%23.5%53.4%2.3%1.8%2.7%29.9%

1: These figures represent the results when respondents were presented with named candidates. When asked to think only about the political parties [the methodology used by the Ashcroft polls] the figures showed a small Labour lead. [4]

Solihull

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
31 Jul–10 Aug 2014 Ashcroft 1,00012%37%28%16%6%1%9%
12–18 May 2014 Ashcroft 1,00012%37%28%16%6%1%9%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 55,1298.9%42.6%42.9%2.2%–3.5%0.3%

Southampton Itchen

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
24 Feb-7 Mar 2015 Ashcroft 1,00035%30%7%20%8%–5%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 44,41236.8%36.3%20.8%4.3%1.4%0.4%0.4%

South Basildon and East Thurrock

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
26 Jan–5 Feb 2015 Ashcroft 1,00128%35%3%29%3%1%6%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 44,73531.0%43.9%13.4%5.9%-5.9%12.9%

South Swindon

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
22–28 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,00037%36%6%16%4%-1%
3–12 Mar 2015 Ashcroft 1,00036%35%5%19%4%2%1%
1–6 Dec 2014 Ashcroft 50834%34%7%20%4%1%Tied
6 May 2010 General Election Results 47,11941.8%34.3%17.6%4.3%1.3%0.7%7.5%

South Thanet

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab UKIP LD Others Lead
22-28 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,00034%26%32%3%5%2%
22 April 2015 Survation/Alan Bown [lower-alpha 7] 1,05730%26%39%2%3%9%
13-18 March 2015 ComRes/Chartwell Political Archived 12 April 2015 at the Wayback Machine 1,00331%29%30%5%5%1%
18–20 Feb 2015 Survation/Alan Bown [lower-alpha 7] 1,01127%28%38%2%5%10%
23–24 Nov 2014 Ashcroft 1,00333%27%32%4%4%1%
11–16 July 2014 Ashcroft 1,00029%29%33%4%5%4%
21–27 April 2014 Ashcroft 1,00032%31%27%7%3%1%
22–24 Nov 2013 Survation 51528%35%30%5%2%5%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 45,93348.0%31.4%5.5%15.1%–16.6%

South West Surrey

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con LD UKIP Lab Green Others Lead
4–5 Dec 2014 Survation/Unite 58757%8%15%11%7%1%42%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 57,25958.7%30.2%2.6%6.0%1.2%1.4%28.5%

St Austell and Newquay

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
15 Mar 2015 Ashcroft 100232%10%26%20%6%4%6%
6–16 Aug 2014 Ashcroft 49327%13%26%25%6%3%1%
19–25 May 2014 Ashcroft [lower-alpha 8] 47332%10%24%25%4%5%7%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 47,23840.0%7.2%42.7%3.7%–6.4%2.8%

Stevenage

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
8–13 Dec 2014 Ashcroft 49738%33%7%18%3%0%5%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 44,65133.4%41.4%16.6%4.5%–4.1%8.0%

Stockton South

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
31 Mar–4 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 100039%44%3%9%1%3%5%
6–12 Nov 2014 Survation/Unite 57139.1%36.5%2.8%18.2%3.1%0.2%2.6%
26 Jun–4 Jul 2014 Ashcroft 52135%38%4%19%2%2%3%
7–13 Apr 2014 Ashcroft 51236%43%5%12%0%3%7%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 50,28438.9%38.3%15.1%2.9%–4.8%0.6%

Stroud

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
11–16 Jul 2014 Ashcroft 56130%41%6%11%11%<0.5%11%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 57,97340.8%38.6%15.4%2.2%2.7%0.2%2.2%

Sutton and Cheam

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
6-16 August 2014 Ashcroft 1,00011%27%45%14%3%0%18%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 48,5087.0%42.4%45.7%2.0%0.5%2.5%3.3%

Thurrock

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab UKIP LD Others Lead
7 May 2015 General Election Results 49,96433.7%32.6%31.7%1.3%0.7%1.1%
17-23 April 2015 Ashcroft 1,00030%31%35%1%3%4%
18–26 June 2014 Ashcroft 1,00228%30%36%2%4%6%
31 Mar–6 Apr 2014 Ashcroft 39427%37%29%4%3%8%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 45,82236.8%36.6%7.4%10.7%8.5%0.2%

Torbay

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
7 May 2015 General Election Results 48,0798.7%40.7%33.8%13.6%3.2%0.0%6.9%
12-21 Mar 2015 Ashcroft 1,00011%33%34%17%3%1%1%
27 Aug - 6 Sep 2014 Ashcroft 1,00115%30%30%21%3%1%Tied
6 May 2010 General Election Results 49,2106.6%38.7%47.0%5.3%1.0%1.4%8.3%

Twickenham

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab UKIP LD Green BNP Others Lead
11-16 Apr 2014 ICM/Oakeshott 50134%23%5%32%4%1%1%2%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 59,72134.1%7.7%1.5%54.4%1.1%1.1%0.2%20.3%

Warwick & Leamington

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
1–6 Dec 2014 Ashcroft 53438%34%7%14%7%<0.5%4%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 49,03242.6%35.4%18.3%1.9%1.4%0.4%7.2%

Watford

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
7 May 2015 General Election Results 56,14943.5%26.0%18.1%9.8%2.4%0.3%17.4%
11–20 Nov 2014 Ashcroft 52530%24%28%14%3%0%2%
20–28 Aug 2014 Ashcroft 52527%29%25%14%4%1%2%
19 May–6 Jun 2014 Ashcroft 52429%25%24%16%6%0%4%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 55,20834.9%26.7%32.4%2.2%1.6%2.2%2.6%

Weaver Vale

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
14-22 Jul 2014 Ashcroft 1,00132%41%6%18%2%1%9%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 43,99038.5%36.3%18.6%2.3%0.8%3.4%2.2%

Wirral West

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
24-30 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,00043%46%3%5%2%0%3%
3–12 Mar 2015 Ashcroft 1,00037%42%5%10%5%1%5%
22–26 Oct 2014 Ashcroft 1,00038%39%6%12%4%1%1%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 39,37242.5%36.3%16.8%2.3%–2.1%6.2%

Witney

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con LD UKIP Lab Green Others Lead
2–4 Dec 2014 Survation/Unite 53153%4%19%16%7%1%34%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 57,76958.8%19.4%3.5%13.0%4.1%1.2%39.4%

Worcester

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green BNP Others Lead
3–12 Mar 2015 Ashcroft 1,00238%33%4%15%7%–2%5%
13–19 Oct 2014 Ashcroft 1,00234%36%5%17%7%–1%2%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 48,97439.5%33.4%19.4%2.8%1.5%2.5%0.7%6.1%

Wyre Forest

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green BNP ICHC Others Lead
11–20 Nov 2014 Ashcroft 51832%16%7%27%5%<1%-13%5%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 50,89936.9%14.3%11.9%2.9%–2.2%31.7%–5.2%

Wythenshawe and Sale East

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Lab UKIP Con LD Others Lead
13 Feb 2014 Wythenshawe by-election Result 23,96155.3%18.0%14.5%4.9%7.3%37.3%
3–5 Feb 2014 Ashcroft (By-election polling) 1,00961%15%14%5%4%46%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 40,75144.1%3.4%25.6%22.3%4.6%18.6%

Northern Ireland

Belfast East

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size DUP APNI UUP PUP TUV SF UKIP Green SDLP Others Lead
7 May 2015 General Election Results 39,68249.3%42.8%–––2.1%––0.3%2.8%6.5%
12–28 Jan 2015 LucidTalk [ permanent dead link ]82034.4%28.7%14.6%6.5%2.8%1.8%1.6%1.5%0.8%7.5%5.7%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 34,48832.8%37.2%21.2%–5.4%2.4%––1.1%–4.4%

Scotland

Airdrie and Shotts

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
7 May 2015 General Election Results 44,2867.7%34.1%1.5%2.5%-53.9%0.3%19.8%
14–22 Jan 2015 Ashcroft 1,0007%39%1%5%1%47%0%8%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 35,8498.7%58.2%8.1%––23.5%1.5%34.6%

Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
7 May 2015 General Election Results 52,20919.8%27.3%1.6%2.5%-48.8%-21.6%
10–19 Feb 2015 Ashcroft 1,00021%31%2%3%0%42%1%11%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 45,89325.5%47.1%9.3%––18.0%–21.6%

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
7 May 2015 General Election Results 55,03836.0%4.9%18.7%2.4%1.1%36.6%0.2%0.6%
13-16 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,00130%9%28%3%1%29%0%1%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 40,01433.8%10.2%45.4%1.2%–9.2%0.3%11.6%

Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
7 May 2015 General Election Results 50,6986.3%33.9%1.1%2.1%-56.6%-22.7%
7–17 Jan 2015 Ashcroft 1,0016%43%1%3%1%46%1%3%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 41,6358.1%66.6%8.5%––16.8%–49.8%

Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
7 May 2015 General Election Results 49,3827.9%30.0%2.2%--59.9%-29.9%
14–22 Jan 2015 Ashcroft 1,0006%34%2%3%3%52%1%18%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 41,1508.3%57.2%9.5%––23.8%1.2%33.3%

Dumfries and Galloway

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
7 May 2015 General Election Results 55,43229.9%24.7%1.7%2.3%–41.4%–11.5%
19–26 Feb 2015 Ashcroft 1,00230%28%2%4%2%34%0%4%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 52,17331.6%45.9%8.8%1.3%–12.3%–14.3%

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
7 May 2015 General Election Results 52,13439.8%14.8%2.7%2.8%1.6%38.3%-1.5%
24-29 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,00031%17%5%4%2%42%-11%
9-15 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,00034%20%4%2%2%36%1%2%
10–19 Feb 2015 Ashcroft 1,00134%18%7%4%2%34%1%Tied
6 May 2010 General Election Results 45,89238.0%28.9%19.8%1.4%1.1%10.8%–9.1%

Dundee West

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
7 May 2015 General Election Results 44,7148.6%23.7%2.4%-2.7%61.9%0.7%38.2%
23–30 Jan 2015 Ashcroft 1,0006%25%3%2%5%59%0%34%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 37,1269.3%48.5%11.4%––28.9%1.9%19.6%

East Dunbartonshire

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
7 May 2015 General Election Results 54,8718.6%12.3%36.3%1.0%1.5%40.3%-4.0%
10-16 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,00012%16%29%1%1%40%0%11%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 47,94815.5%34.1%38.7%1.1%–10.5%-4.6%

East Renfrewshire

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Lead
7 May 2015 General Election Results 56,82521.9%34.0%1.8%1.6%–40.6%6.5%
24-30 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,00020%36%3%1%1%39%3%
11-16 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,00225%31%3%1%1%40%9%
16–26 Feb 2015 Ashcroft 1,00026%34%2%1%3%33%1%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 51,18130.4%50.8%9.2%0.7%–8.9%20.4%

Edinburgh North and Leith

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
14 - 17 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,00014%29%6%1%6%43%0%14%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 47,35614.9%37.5%33.8%–2.2%9.6%1.6%3.5%

Edinburgh South

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
13 - 17 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,00016%34%8%1%4%37%1%3%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 43,80121.6%34.7%34.0%–2.0%7.7%-0.7%

Edinburgh South West

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
11–19 Feb 2015 Ashcroft 1,00019%27%4%2%7%40%0%13%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 45,46224.3%42.8%18.0%–1.9%12.2%0.8%18.6%

Glasgow Central

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
5–10 Jan 2015 Ashcroft 1,0005%35%3%3%7%45%2%10%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 30,5727.1%52.0%16.4%0.8%2.6%17.5%3.6%34.5%

Glasgow East

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
5–8 Jan 2015 Ashcroft 1,0014%37%1%4%2%51%2%14%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 32,1644.5%61.6%5.0%0.6%–24.7%3.5%36.8%

Glasgow North

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
5–10 Jan 2015 Ashcroft 1,0015%33%4%1%11%45%1%12%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 29,6137.1%44.5%31.3%–3.2%11.9%2.0%13.2%

Glasgow North East

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
5–8 Jan 2015 Ashcroft 1,0014%46%1%5%4%39%1%7%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 29,4095.3%68.3%7.7%––14.1%4.4%54.2%

Glasgow North West

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
7–17 Jan 2015 Ashcroft 1,0007%38%3%2%5%44%1%6%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 35,5829.9%54.1%15.8%–2.5%15.3%2.5%38.3%

Glasgow South

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
7–16 Jan 2015 Ashcroft 1,0019%33%2%3%3%48%1%15%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 40,09411.5%51.7%11.8%–2.4%20.1%2.5%31.6%

Glasgow South West

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
11-16 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,0036%34%2%3%1%55%1%21%
7–15 Jan 2015 Ashcroft 1,0004%42%2%5%2%45%1%3%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 31,7816.6%62.5%9.0%––16.3%5.5%46.2%

Gordon

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
22–29 Jan 2015 Ashcroft 1,00211%14%26%4%1%43%1%17%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 48,77518.7%20.1%36.0%–1.5%22.2%1.4%13.8%

Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
20–29 Jan 2015 Ashcroft 1,00010%13%21%4%1%50%1%29%
23–26 May 2014 ICM/Oakeshott 50012%25%16%7%4%32%3%7%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 47,08613.3%22.1%40.7%1.2%1.7%18.7%2.5%18.6%

Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
19–26 Feb 2015 Ashcroft 1,0007%39%3%3%3%45%0%6%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 45,8029.3%64.5%9.3%1.7%–14.3%0.9%50.2%

Motherwell and Wishaw

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
14–22 Jan 2015 Ashcroft 1,0005%39%1%3%1%50%1%11%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 39,1239.4%61.1%9.8%––18.2%1.6%42.9%

North East Fife

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
10-16 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,00016%9%30%4%1%43%1%13%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 40,06421.8%17.1%44.3%2.6%-14.2%-22.6%

Paisley and Renfrewshire South

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
7 May 2015 General Election Results 46,2267.6%38.6%2.2%––50.9%0.6%12.3%
11-16 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,0056%39%1%2%1%50%1%11%
22–29 Jan 2015 Ashcroft 1,0006%40%2%1%2%48%1%8%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 39,9989.9%59.6%9.5%––18.1%2.9%41.5%

Ross, Skye and Lochaber

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
9-15 Apr 2015 Ashcroft 1,0007%6%33%2%3%48%1%15%
16–26 Feb 2015 Ashcroft 1,0018%9%35%2%5%40%1%5%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 34,83812.2%15.1%52.6%1.9%2.2%15.1%0.8%37.5%

West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
11–19 Feb 2015 Ashcroft 1,00125%10%20%3%2%39%0%14%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 45,19530.3%13.6%38.4%0.9%–15.7%1.1%8.1%

West Dunbartonshire

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green SNP Others Lead
14–22 Jan 2015 Ashcroft 1,0006%38%1%4%2%47%1%9%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 42,2667.7%61.3%8.1%1.6%–20.1%1.2%41.2%

Wales

Brecon and Radnorshire

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Plaid Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
27 Oct–1 Nov 2014 Ashcroft 5538%15%27%31%17%2%0%4%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 38,8452.5%10.5%36.5%46.2%2.3%0.9%1.1%9.6%

Cardiff Central

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Plaid Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
19–22 Sep 2014 Ashcroft 5429%36%17%24%9%5%<0.5%12%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 36,1513.4%28.8%21.6%41.4%2.1%1.6%1.0%12.6%

Cardiff North

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Plaid Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
18–27 Jun 2014 Ashcroft 1,0007%41%30%6%12%3%1%11%
31 Mar–6 Apr 2014 Ashcroft 4617%41%34%8%8%1%<0.5%7%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 47,6303.3%37.1%37.5%18.3%2.4%0.8%0.6%0.4%

Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Plaid Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
8–13 Dec 2014 Ashcroft 51516%29%33%4%14%3%1%4%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 40,50710.4%32.7%41.1%12.1%2.8%–0.9%8.5%

Vale of Glamorgan

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientSample size Plaid Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
2–12 Feb 2015 Ashcroft 53212%32%38%4%10%3%1%6%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 48,6675.5%32.9%41.8%15.2%3.1%0.9%0.5%8.8%

Multiple constituency polling

Some polls are carried out in specified subsets of marginal constituencies. Most of the polls for Lord Ashcroft were compilations of polls in individual constituencies.

Date(s)
conducted		Polling organisation/clientNo of Seats
surveyed		Incumbents by partySample size Con Lab UKIP LD Green Others
1–14 Dec 2014 Ashcroft 88 Con8,00036% 35%14%6%5% [lower-alpha 9] 2%
20–29 Nov 2014 Ashcroft 44 Lab4,00222%37% 33%5%2% [lower-alpha 10] 1%
15–24 Nov 2014 ComRes/ITV News [ permanent dead link ]4025 Con, 15 Lab74331%39% 18%7%4%<0.5%
2–27 Oct 2014 Ashcroft 1212 Con12,00832%35% 23%5%4%1%
10 Sep–3 Oct 2014 Ashcroft 1111 Con11,00232%38% 18%5%5%1%
18–26 Sep 2014 ComRes/ITV News [ permanent dead link ]4025 Con, 15 Lab76630%41% 17%6%5%2%
31 Jul–14 Sep 2014 Ashcroft 55 LibDem5,00015%38% 10%28%6%3%
31 Jul–6 Sep 2014 Ashcroft 172 Con, 15 LibDem8,90932%13%17%32%4%1%
11 Jul–11 Aug 2014 Ashcroft 88 Con8,00530%40% 8%17%5%1%
11 Jul–11 Aug 2014 Ashcroft 44 Lab4,00130%43% 9%13%4%1%
18 Jun–16 Jul 2014 Ashcroft 1414 Con14,00431%38% 4%21%4%2%
18–25 Jun 2014 ComRes/ITV News [ permanent dead link ]4025 Con, 15 Lab79531%36% 17%7%6%3%
11–22 Jun 2014 Ashcroft 44 LD1,96312%47% 10%19%9%2%
11 May–14 Jun 2014 Ashcroft 176 Con, 11 LibDem8,72833%14%18%28%6% [lower-alpha 4] 1%
15–20 May 2014 ComRes/Independent [ permanent dead link ]4025 Con, 15 Lab1,03033% (−4)35% (−2) 17% (+14)8% (−10)4%2%
31 Mar–18 May 2014 Ashcroft 2614 Con, 12 Lab26,02529%41% 18%8%4%
1 Aug–5 Sep 2013 Ashcroft 4040 Con12,80930%35% 12%13%10%

Explanatory notes

The Lord Ashcroft polls typically ask two voting intention questions, with the second question asking the respondent to think "specifically about your own constituency and the candidates who are likely to stand there". [2] This latter question is reported in the tables above.

Most polling companies are members of the British Polling Council and abide by its disclosure rules; however, Michael Ashcroft, who commissioned many of these polls, is not a BPC member, despite having been invited to join. However, he contracts the conduct of his polls to BPC members. [5]

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 Percentages for UKIP/Others based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers
  2. ↑ Percentage for Greens based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers
  3. ↑ Percentages for UKIP/Green/Others based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers
  4. 1 2 Based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers
  5. ↑ By-election polling
  6. ↑ This poll originally, erroneously, showed a small lead for the LDs: see http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/02/sheffield-hallam-doncaster-north-thanet-south/#more-7536
  7. 1 2 Candidates named in the poll.
  8. ↑ Share for Greens based on a table that did not further prompt "don't know" and refusers.
  9. ↑ Based on a mean of the (non-aggregated) shares of 3%, 9%, 3%, 3%, 3%, 5%, 3% and 7% in the eight constituencies
  10. ↑ Based on non-aggregated shares of 3%, 2%, 2% and 2% in the four constituencies

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References

  1. ↑ Patrick Wintour (19 February 2015). "Lib Dem polling brings hope of future coalition role". The Guardian.
  2. 1 2 "Introducing the New Statesman Political Index: Lib Dems to win at least 30 seats". New Statesman. 8 June 2021.
  3. ↑ "Ed Miliband and Doncaster North: a correction (and apology) – Lord Ashcroft Polls". lordashcroftpolls.com.
  4. ↑ Sheffield Hallam Constituency Poll for The Guardian Archived 7 May 2015 at the Wayback Machine - ICM Media Centre, 4 May 2015
  5. ↑ "Sheffield Hallam, Doncaster North and Thanet South". Michael Ashcroft. Retrieved 7 February 2015. "Minutes of the Annual General Meeting 2013". British Polling Council. Archived from the original on 19 May 2014. Retrieved 19 May 2014.

P – The dates when the fieldwork for this poll was carried out is unknown, therefore the date of publication has been given.

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