Post-election pendulum for the 1996 Victorian state election

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The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the 1996 Victorian state election.

"Very safe" seats require a swing of over 20 per cent to change, "safe" seats require a swing of 10 to 20 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.

Liberal/National seats
Marginal
Ballarat East Barry Traynor LIB0.0%
Oakleigh Denise McGill LIB0.8%
Carrum David Lean LIB0.8%
Ballarat West Paul Jenkins LIB1.4%
Narracan Florian Andrighetto LIB1.6%
Tullamarine Bernie Finn LIB3.0%
Frankston East Peter McLellan [4] LIB3.1%
Geelong Ann Henderson LIB3.5%
Seymour Marie Tehan LIB4.2%
Ripon Steve Elder LIB4.6%
Prahran Leonie Burke LIB4.6%
Mordialloc Geoff Leigh LIB4.7%
Bentleigh Inga Peulich LIB4.7%
Bendigo East Michael John LIB5.0%
Monbulk Steve McArthur LIB5.2%
Mitcham Roger Pescott [2] LIB5.3%
Berwick Robert Dean LIB5.3%
Bellarine Garry Spry LIB5.5%
Fairly safe
Eltham Wayne Philips LIB6.8%
Bayswater Gordon Ashley LIB7.5%
Gisborne Tom Reynolds LIB7.8%
Knox Hurtle Lupton LIB7.9%
Polwarth Ian Smith LIB8.1%
Dromana Martin Dixon LIB8.1%
Burwood Jeff Kennett LIB8.6%
Cranbourne Gary Rowe LIB9.1%
Bennettswood Geoff Coleman LIB9.2%
Caulfield Helen Shardey LIB9.3%
Safe
South Barwon Alister Paterson LIB10.2%
Box Hill Robert Clark LIB10.3%
Portland Denis Napthine LIB10.4%
Forest Hill John Richardson LIB10.5%
Pakenham Rob Maclellan LIB11.1%
Mornington Robin Cooper LIB11.3%
Mooroolbark Lorraine Elliott LIB12.2%
Gippsland West Alan Brown [1] LIB12.6%
Evelyn Jim Plowman LIB12.7%
Wantirna Kim Wells LIB13.1%
Hawthorn Phil Gude LIB13.6%
Warrnambool John McGrath NAT13.8%
Warrandyte Phil Honeywood LIB13.9%
Sandringham Murray Thompson LIB14.3%
Bulleen David Perrin LIB14.6%
Benambra Tony Plowman LIB14.9%
Kew Jan Wade LIB15.0%
Doncaster Victor Perton LIB15.0%
Gippsland East David Treasure NAT15.2%
Benalla Pat McNamara NAT15.3%
Frankston Andrea McCall LIB15.4%
Glen Waverley Ross Smith LIB15.7%
Malvern Robert Doyle LIB17.6%
Brighton Alan Stockdale LIB18.1%
Swan Hill Barry Steggall NAT19.0%
Gippsland South Peter Ryan NAT19.4%
Shepparton Don Kilgour NAT19.6%
Very safe
Wimmera Bill McGrath NAT21.2%
Murray Valley Ken Jasper NAT22.4%
Rodney Noel Maughan NAT26.1%
Labor seats
Marginal
Werribee Mary Douglas ALP0.8%
Ivanhoe Craig Langdon ALP1.6%
Yan Yean Andre Haermeyer ALP1.6%
Bendigo West Bob Cameron ALP1.7%
Dandenong North Jan Wilson ALP2.2%
Bundoora Sherryl Garbutt ALP2.6%
Morwell Keith Hamilton ALP2.7%
Dandenong John Pandazopoulos ALP3.3%
Essendon Judy Maddigan ALP3.4%
Niddrie Rob Hulls ALP4.4%
Fairly safe
Springvale Eddie Micallef ALP7.9%
Geelong North Peter Loney ALP8.1%
Altona Lynne Kosky ALP8.2%
Albert Park John Thwaites ALP8.8%
Clayton Hong Lim ALP9.6%
Safe
Mitcham Tony Robinson [2] ALP10.5%
Pascoe Vale Christine Campbell ALP11.1%
Keilor George Seitz ALP11.6%
Melton David Cunningham ALP12.2%
Mill Park Alex Andrianopoulos ALP13.9%
Northcote Mary Delahunty [3] ALP15.0%
Preston Michael Leighton ALP15.3%
Williamstown Steve Bracks ALP15.6%
Melbourne Neil Cole ALP15.9%
Coburg Carlo Carli ALP16.9%
Richmond Demetri Dollis ALP17.3%
Sunshine Ian Baker ALP19.1%
Footscray Bruce Mildenhall ALP19.4%
Northcote Tony Sheehan [3] ALP19.9%
Very safe
Thomastown Peter Batchelor ALP22.0%
Broadmeadows John Brumby ALP25.1%
Independent & other seats
Gippsland West Susan Davies [1] IND v LIB0.3%
Mildura Russell Savage IND v LIB20.9%

Notes

1 In December 1996, the Liberal member for Gippsland West, Alan Brown, resigned. Independent candidate Susan Davies won the resulting by-election on 1 February 1997.
2 On 11 November 1997, the Liberal member for Mitcham, Roger Pescott, resigned. Labor candidate Tony Robinson won the resulting by-election on 13 December 1997.
3 On 3 July 1998, the Labor member for Northcote, Tony Sheehan, resigned. Labor candidate Mary Delahunty won the resulting state by-election on 15 August 1998.
4 The member for Frankston East, Peter McLellan, was elected as a member of the Liberal Party, but resigned on 24 July 1998 and subsequently served out the remainder of his term as an independent.

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