Reagan coalition

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Reagan campaigning for David Durenberger in the 1982 U.S. Senate election in Minnesota President Ronald Reagan at a Rally for Senator David Durenberger in Minneapolis, Minnesota (cropped).jpg
Reagan campaigning for David Durenberger in the 1982 U.S. Senate election in Minnesota

The Reagan coalition was the combination of voters that Republican Ronald Reagan assembled to produce a major political realignment with his electoral landslide in the 1980 United States presidential election. The coalition was possible because of Democrat Jimmy Carter's losses in most socio-economic groups. In 1984, Reagan confirmed his support by winning nearly 60% of the popular vote and carrying 49 of the 50 states.

Contents

The Reagan Democrats were members of the Democratic Party before and after the Reagan presidency, but voted for Reagan in 1980 and 1984 and for his vice president, George H. W. Bush, in 1988, producing their landslide victories. They were mostly white socially conservative blue-collar workers who lived in the Northeast and were attracted to Reagan's social conservatism on issues such as abortion and to his anti-communist hawkish foreign policy. They did not continue to vote Republican in 1992 or 1996, causing the term to fall into disuse except as a reference to the 1980s. The term is not generally used to describe the white Southerners who permanently changed party affiliation from Democrat to Republican during Reagan's presidency. They have largely remained Republican to this day.

Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg analyzed white, largely unionized auto workers in suburban Macomb County, Michigan, just north of Detroit. The county voted 63% for John F. Kennedy in the 1960 presidential election and 66% for Reagan in 1984. He concluded that Reagan Democrats no longer saw Democrats as champions of their middle class aspirations. They instead viewed the Democratic Party as working primarily for the benefit of others, especially African Americans and the very poor.

The Reagan coalition began to fall apart after 1988 when Reagan was ineligible for reelection and Bush won over Democrat Michael Dukakis. Bush lost over 5 million votes and 100 electoral votes in comparison to what Reagan won four years prior. In 1992, Bush faced a competitive primary competition with Pat Buchanan, still winning the Republican nomination with 72% of the vote. Bush went on to lose the general election against Democrat Bill Clinton, with exit polling showing Bush retaining 66% of the Republican vote, Clinton winning 12%, and independent candidate Ross Perot winning 21%. In 1996, Republican Bob Dole lost to Clinton, taking 68% of the Republican vote, improving on Bush's margin, while Clinton took 23% and Perot 7%.

Voter demographics

1980 and 1976 voter groups and presidential votes
% of the total
1980 vote
Group Carter

(1980)

Reagan

(1980)

Anderson

(1980)

Carter

(1976)

Ford

(1976)

Party
43Democratic652667722
23Independent3054124354
28Republican11844990
Ideology
18Liberal5727117026
51Moderate424885148
31Conservative237142970
Race
10Black821438216
2Hispanic543677524
88White365584752
Sex
48Female454675048
52Male375475048
Religion
46Protestant375664455
41White Protestant316264357
25Catholic405175444
5Jewish4539146434
Family income
13Less than $10,000504165840
15$10,000–$14,999474285543
29$15,000–$24,999385374850
24$25,000–$50,000325883662
5Over $50,00025658
Occupation
39Professional or manager335694157
11Clerical, sales, white collar424884653
17Blue-collar464755741
3Agriculture29663
3Unemployed553576534
Education
11Less than high school504535841
28High school graduate435145446
28Some college355585149
27College graduate3551114555
Union membership
28Labor union household474475939
62No member of household in union355584355
Age
618–21 years old4443114850
1722–29 years old4343115146
3130–44 years old375474949
2345–59 years old395564752
1860 years or older405444752
Region
25East424795147
27South445135445
22South (whites)356034652
27Midwest405174850
19Far West355394651
Community size
18City over 250,000543586040
53Suburb/small city375385347
29Rural/town395454753
Source: [1]

The Three Leg Stool

"' The Three Legged Stool of the Republican Party'", also known by "The Gipper's Stool" or "Reagan's Stool", is a theory about the composition of the U.S. Republican Party. It is intended to explain the way the Republican Party's power base derives from the three main "legs" (factions) within the "stool", those being the Christian right/social conservatives, fiscal conservatives, and anti-communist foreign interventionists. This coalition came together with the rise of the New Right and the election of Ronald Reagan.

Variants of the phrase are often used interchangeably, such as "Gipper's Stool" or "Reagan's Stool". Ronald Reagan coined the term as a way to describe the Republican party as a three-part coalition based on the social conservatives (consisting of the Christian right and paleo-conservatives), war hawks (consisting of interventionists and neoconservatives), and fiscal conservatives (consisting of right-libertarians and free-market capitalists), with overlap between the sides. [2] [3] [4] The "legs" of the analogy describe each part of the coalition, the idea being that without all three the party cannot win (as a stool cannot support itself with only two legs). [5]

During the election of 1980, Ronald Reagan described the party as a three-legged stool, most combining their different brands of conservatism in opposition to the Soviet Union and the spread of Communism during the Cold War. This political philosophy is often branded as fusionism as both groups have overlapping interests as Libertarian philosopher Frank Meyer, as both shared values and most importantly enemies. [6] During the 2007 Iowa caucuses, Mitt Romney carried a physical three-legged stool, explaining the importance of each leg. He also stated in terms of the importance of the legs as being “our candidate has to be somebody who can represent and speak for all three legs of the conservative stool or conservative coalition that Ronald Reagan put together — social conservatives, economic conservatives, and defense conservatives.”, and without it the party would fail. [5]

Critics often use the stool as a means to criticize party leadership or another member of the stool, such is seen in the lament of the "death of the stool" with the 2016 election of Donald Trump. Pundits often criticize party membership for abandoning the stool, as Business Insider reported, "the person said that thanks mostly to President George W. Bush, the party has failed on the first two legs. The country has shifted significantly over the last one, and there's nothing a Republican candidate can do to change it." [7] Senator Spencer Abraham has also criticized the stool, saying, "The Republican party has much greater divides now in terms of the feelings of its voters than it did when Reagan ran."[ citation needed ]

See also

Citations

  1. CBS News/The New York Times interviews with 12,782 voters as they left the polls as reported in The New York Times, November 9, 1980, p. 28. 1976 data are from CBS News interviews.
  2. Barber, J Matt (October 29, 2010). "BARBER Republicans must 'hang together or there won't be much time before Tea Party backers bail". The Washington Times .
  3. Longman, Martin (April 7, 2016). "The Republicans' Four-Legged Stool". Washington Monthly .
  4. Academy, _Grassroots Leadership (February 25, 2019). "What Made Reagan's Coalition?". Americans for Prosperity . Archived from the original on April 18, 2021. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
  5. 1 2 Johnson, Eliana (February 29, 2016). "The Death of Reagan's Republican Party". National Review .
  6. "Reagan's Philosophical Fusionism". The American Conservative. April 4, 2014. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
  7. Yarow, Jay (January 28, 2016). "A former conservative activist has a fascinating explanation for the Republican Party's implosion". Business Insider .

Further reading