The Reagan coalition was the combination of voters that RepublicanRonald Reagan assembled to produce a major political realignment with his electoral landslide in the 1980 United States presidential election. In 1980, the Reagan coalition was possible because of DemocratJimmy Carter's losses in most social-economic groups. In 1984, Reagan confirmed his support by winning nearly 60% of the popular vote and carried 49 of the 50 states.
The Reagan Democrats were Democrats before the Reagan years and afterwards, but who voted for Reagan in 1980 and 1984 and for George H. W. Bush in 1988, producing their landslide victories. They were mostly white socially conservative blue-collar workers who lived in the Northeast and were attracted to Reagan's social conservatism on issues such as abortion and to his hawkish foreign policy. They did not continue to vote Republican in 1992 or 1996, so the term fell into disuse except as a reference to the 1980s. The term is not generally used to describe the Southern whites who permanently changed party affiliation from Democrat to Republican during the Reagan administration and they have largely remained Republican to this day.
Stan Greenberg, a Democratic pollster, analyzed white, largely unionized auto workers in suburban Macomb County, Michigan, just north of Detroit. The county voted 63% for John F. Kennedy in 1960 and 66% for Reagan in 1984. He concluded that Reagan Democrats no longer saw Democrats as champions of their middle class aspirations, but instead saw it as being a party working primarily for the benefit of others, especially African Americans and the very poor.
The Reagan coalition began to fall apart after Reagan was ineligible for reelection in 1988. George H. W. Bush, Reagan's vice president, ran in 1988 and won the election over Democrat Michael Dukakis, but lost over 5 million votes and 100 electoral votes that Reagan won four years prior. In 1992, President Bush faced a competitive primary competition with Pat Buchanan, still winning the Republican nomination with 72% of the vote. Bush went on to lose the general election against Democrat Bill Clinton, with exit polling showing that George Bush retained 66% of the Republican vote while Bill Clinton won 12% and Ross Perot, an independent candidate, won 21%. In 1996, Republican Bob Dole lost to President Clinton, taking 68% of the Republican vote, improving on President Bush's margin, while President Clinton took 23% and Ross Perot 7%.
Voter demographics
Voter groups and the presidential vote, 1980 and 1976
% of 1980 total vote
3-party vote
2-party vote
1980
1976
Social group
Carter
Reagan
Anderson
Carter
Ford
Party
43
Democratic
65
26
6
77
22
23
Independent
30
54
12
43
54
28
Republican
11
84
4
9
90
Ideology
18
Liberal
57
27
11
70
26
51
Moderate
42
48
8
51
48
31
Conservative
23
71
4
29
70
Race
10
Black
82
14
3
82
16
2
Hispanic
54
36
7
75
24
88
White
36
55
8
47
52
Sex
48
Female
45
46
7
50
48
52
Male
37
54
7
50
48
Religion
46
Protestant
37
56
6
44
55
41
White Protestant
31
62
6
43
57
25
Catholic
40
51
7
54
44
5
Jewish
45
39
14
64
34
Family Income
13
Less than $10,000
50
41
6
58
40
15
$10,000–$14,999
47
42
8
55
43
29
$15,000–$24,999
38
53
7
48
50
24
$25,000–$50,000
32
58
8
36
62
5
Over $50,000
25
65
8
—
—
Occupation
39
Professional or manager
33
56
9
41
57
11
Clerical, sales, white collar
42
48
8
46
53
17
Blue-collar
46
47
5
57
41
3
Agriculture
29
66
3
—
—
3
Unemployed
55
35
7
65
34
Education
11
Less than high school
50
45
3
58
41
28
High school graduate
43
51
4
54
46
28
Some college
35
55
8
51
49
27
College graduate
35
51
11
45
55
Union membership
28
Labor union household
47
44
7
59
39
62
No member of household in union
35
55
8
43
55
Age
6
18–21 years old
44
43
11
48
50
17
22–29 years old
43
43
11
51
46
31
30–44 years old
37
54
7
49
49
23
45–59 years old
39
55
6
47
52
18
60 years or older
40
54
4
47
52
Region
25
East
42
47
9
51
47
27
South
44
51
3
54
45
22
South (whites)
35
60
3
46
52
27
Midwest
40
51
7
48
50
19
Far West
35
53
9
46
51
Community size
18
City over 250,000
54
35
8
60
40
53
Suburb/small city
37
53
8
53
47
29
Rural/town
39
54
5
47
53
Source: CBS News/The New York Times interviews with 12,782 voters as they left the polls as reported in The New York Times, November 9, 1980, p. 28. 1976 data are from CBS News interviews.
Ehrman, John. The Eighties: America in the Age of Reagan. (2005).
Ferguson Thomas, and Joel Rogers, Right Turn: The Decline of the Democrats and the Future of American Politics 1986.
Germond, Jack W. and Jules Witcover. Blue Smoke & Mirrors: How Reagan Won & Why Carter Lost the Election of 1980. 1981. Detailed journalism.
Greenberg, Stan. Middle Class Dreams: The Politics and Power of the New American Majority (1985).
Jensen, Richard J., Steven L. Piott, Christopher C. Gibbs; Grass Roots Politics: Parties, Issues, and Voters, 1854-1983 Greenwood Press, 1983.
Nelson Michael ed. The Elections of 1984 1985.
Patterson, James T. Restless Giant: The United States from Watergate to Bush vs. Gore. (2005), standard scholarly synthesis.
Pemberton, William E. Exit with Honor: The Life and Presidency of Ronald Reagan (1998).
Troy, Gill. Morning in America: How Ronald Reagan Invented the 1980s (2004). Study of Reagan's image.
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