On 22 June 1941, Germany invaded the Soviet Union. The Germans aimed to annex the Baltic territories into the Third Reich, where "suitable elements" would be assimilated and "unsuitable elements" exterminated. In practice, the implementation of occupation policy was more complex; for administrative convenience, the Baltic states were included with Belorussia in the Reichskommissariat Ostland.[8]
There were several attempts to restore independence during the occupation. On 22 June 1941, the Lithuanians overthrew Soviet rule two days before the Wehrmacht arrived in Kaunas, where the Germans then allowed a Provisional Government to function for over a month.[9] The Latvian Central Council was set up as an underground organisation in 1943, but it was destroyed by the Gestapo in 1945. In Estonia in 1941, Jüri Uluots proposed restoration of independence; later, by 1944, he had become a key figure in the secret National Committee. In September 1944, Uluots briefly became acting president of independent Estonia.[10] Unlike the French and the Poles, the Baltic states had no governments in exile located in the West. Consequently, Great Britain and the United States lacked any interest in the Baltic cause while the war against Germany remained undecided.[10] The discovery of the Katyn massacre in 1943 and callous conduct towards the Warsaw uprising in 1944 had cast shadows on relations; nevertheless, all three victors still displayed solidarity at the Yalta Conference in 1945.[11]
There were several attempts to restore independence during the occupation. On 22 June 1941, the Lithuanians overthrew Soviet rule two days before the Wehrmacht arrived in Kaunas, where the Germans then allowed a Provisional Government to function for over a month.[12] The Latvian Central Council was set up as an underground organisation in 1943, but it was destroyed by the Gestapo in 1945. In Estonia in 1941, Jüri Uluots proposed restoration of independence; later, by 1944, he had become a key figure in the secret National Committee. In September 1944, Uluots briefly became acting president of independent Estonia.[13] Unlike the French and the Poles, the Baltic states had no governments in exile located in the West. Consequently, Great Britain and the United States lacked any interest in the Baltic cause while the war against Germany remained undecided.[13] The discovery of the Katyn massacre in 1943 and callous conduct towards the Warsaw uprising in 1944 had cast shadows on relations; nevertheless, all three victors still displayed solidarity at the Yalta Conference in 1945.[14]
Latvian SS-Legion parade through Riga before deploying to the Eastern Front. December 1943.
The Nazi administration also conscripted Baltic nationals into the German armies. The Lithuanian Territorial Defense Force, composed of volunteers, was formed in 1944. The LTDF reached a size of roughly 10,000 men. Its goal was to fight the approaching Red Army, provide security, and conduct anti-partisan operations within the territory claimed by Lithuanians. After brief engagements against Soviet and Polish partisans, the force self-disbanded.[15] Its leaders were arrested and sent to Nazi concentration camps,[16] and many of members were executed by the Nazis.[16] The Latvian Legion, created in 1943, consisted of two conscripted divisions of the Waffen-SS. On 1 July 1944, the Latvian Legion had 87,550 men. Another 23,000 Latvians were serving as Wehrmacht "auxiliaries".[17] Among other battles, they participated in the Siege of Leningrad, in the Courland Pocket fighting, the defence of the Pomeranian Wall, at the Velikaya River for Hill "93,4", and in the defence of Berlin. The 20th Waffen Grenadier Division of the SS (1st Estonian) was formed in January 1944 through conscription. Consisting of 38,000 men, it took part in the Battle of Narva, the Battle of Tannenberg Line, the Battle of Tartu, and Operation Aster.
By 1 March 1944, the siege of Leningrad was over and Soviet troops were on the border with Estonia.[18] The Soviets launched the Baltic Offensive, a twofold military-political operation to rout German forces, on 14 September. On 16 September, the High Command of the German Army issued a plan in which Estonian forces would cover the German withdrawal.[19] The Soviets soon reached the Estonian capital Tallinn, where the NKVD's first mission was to stop anyone escaping from the state; however, many refugees did manage to escape to the West. The NKVD also targeted the members of the National Committee of the Republic of Estonia.[20] German and Latvian forces remained trapped in the Courland Pocket until the end of the war, capitulating on 10 May 1945.
The Holocuast
Nazi racial attitudes to the peoples of the three Baltic countries differed between Nazi authorities. In practice, racial policies were directed not against the majority of Balts but rather against the Jews. Large numbers of Jews were living in the major cities, notably in Vilnius, Kaunas, and Riga. The German mobile killing units slaughtered hundreds of thousands of Jews; Einsatzgruppe A, assigned to the Baltic area, was the most effective of four units.[21] German policy forced the Jews into ghettos. In 1943, Heinrich Himmler ordered his forces to liquidate the ghettos and to transfer the survivors to concentration camps. Some Latvians and Lithuanian conscripts collaborated actively in the killing of Jews, and the Nazis managed to provoke pogroms locally, especially in Lithuania.[22] Only about 75 percent of Estonian and 10 percent of Latvian and Lithuanian Jews survived the war. However, for the majority of Lithuanians, Latvians and Estonians, the German rule was less harsh than Soviet rule had been, and it was less brutal than German occupations elsewhere in eastern Europe.[23] Local puppet regimes performed administrative tasks and schools were permitted to function. However, most people were denied the right to own land or businesses.[24]
After WWII
The Soviets implemented a program of sovietization, which was achieved through large-scale industrialisation rather than by overt attacks on culture, religion, or freedom of expression.[25] The Soviets made investments to integrate the Baltic economies into the larger Soviet economic sphere to extract energy resources and the manufacture of industrial and agricultural products.[26] In all three republics, manufacturing industry was developed, resulting in some of the best industrial complexes in the sphere of electronics and textile production.[27] Baltic urban areas had been damaged during wartime and it took ten years to recuperate housing losses.[28] Estonia and Latvia received large-scale immigration of industrial workers from other parts of the Soviet Union that changed the demographics dramatically. Lithuania also received immigration but on a smaller scale.[26]
The period of stagnation brought the crisis of the Soviet system. The Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev came to power in 1985 and responded with glasnost and perestroika. They were attempts to reform the Soviet system from above to avoid revolution from below. The reforms occasioned the reawakening of nationalism in the Baltic republics.[29] The first major demonstrations against the environment were Riga in November 1986 and the following spring in Tallinn. Small successful protests encouraged key individuals and by the end of 1988, the reform wing had gained the decisive positions in the Baltic republics.[30] At the same time, coalitions of reformists and populist forces assembled under the Popular Fronts.[31] The Supreme Soviet of the Estonian Soviet Socialist Republic made the Estonian language the state language again in January 1989, and similar legislation was passed in Latvia and Lithuania soon after. The Baltic republics declared their aim for sovereignty: Estonia in November 1988, Lithuania in May 1989, and Latvia in July 1989.[32] The Baltic Way, that took place on 23 August 1989, became the biggest manifestation of opposition to the Soviet rule.[33] In December 1989, the Congress of People's Deputies of the Soviet Union condemned the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact and its secret protocol as "legally untenable and invalid."[34]
Pro-independence Lithuanians demonstrating in Šiauliai, January 1990
On 11 March 1990, the Lithuanian Supreme Soviet declared Lithuania's independence.[35] Pro-independence candidates had received an overwhelming majority in the Supreme Soviet elections held earlier that year.[36] On 30 March 1990, seeing full restoration of independence not yet feasible due to large Soviet presence, the Estonian Supreme Soviet declared the Soviet Union an occupying power and announced the start of a transitional period to independence. On 4 May 1990, the Latvian Supreme Soviet made a similar declaration.[37] The Soviet Union immediately condemned all three declarations as illegal, saying that they had to go through the process of secession outlined in the Soviet Constitution of 1977. However, the Baltic states argued that the entire occupation process violated both international law and their own law. Therefore, they argued, they were merely reasserting an independence that still existed under international law.
By mid-June, after unsuccessful economic blockade of Lithuania, the Soviets started negotiations with Lithuania and the other two Baltic republics. The Soviets had a bigger challenge elsewhere, as the Russian Federal Republic proclaimed sovereignty in June.[38] Simultaneously the Baltic republics also started to negotiate directly with the Russian Federal Republic.[38] After the failed negotiations, the Soviets made a dramatic but failed attempt to break the deadlock and sent in military troops, killing twenty and injuring hundreds of civilians in what became known as the "Vilnius massacre" in Lithuania and "The Barricades" in Latvia, during January 1991.[39] In August 1991, the hard-line members attempted to take control of the Soviet Union. A day after the coup on 21 August, the Estonians proclaimed full independence, after an independence referendum was held in Estonia on 3 March 1991,[40] alongside a similar referendum in Latvia the same month. It was approved by 78.4% of voters, with an 82.9% turnout. Independence was restored by the Estonian Supreme Council on the night of 20 August.[40] The Latvian parliament made a similar declaration on the same day. The coup failed, but the collapse of the Soviet Union became unavoidable.[41] After the coup collapsed, the Soviet government recognised the independence of all three Baltic states on 6 September 1991.
Economical: The effects of the Free Market
European integration: 1991-2008
The three Baltic states established market economies after the USSR dissolved. Most enterprises were privatized and state spending was cut in hopes of reducing the size of the public sector.[42] The Baltic economies fell rapidly, however.[43]
Financial crisis and aftermath: 2008-2022
A chart showing the GDP per capita of the Baltic states.
During the 2008 financial crisis, they were the most severely affected countries. The impact in Latvia was so jarring that it sparked violent protests, precipitated the collapse of the government of then-Prime Minister Ivars Godmanis, and led to an emergency bailout of €7.5 billion from the IMF in 2009. Output declines in Lithuania and Estonia from 2008 to 2009 were nearly as steep as in Latvia. [44]
Estonia joined the Eurozone in 2011,[44] Latvia joined in 2014,[45] and Lithuania joined in 2015.[46]
Following Russian War: 2022-Present
Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Baltic trade with Russia has significantly dropped. This is due to sanctions and a deliberate policy to "decouple" the Baltic states from Russia.[citation needed] Estonia's imports from Russia and Belarus fell from 393 million in late 2021 to 40.5 million in early 2024.[47]
Inflation surged in 2022 and 2023 for the Baltic states, well above the EU average. Inflation in November 2022 was 21.4% in Estonia, 21.4% in Latvia, and 21.7% in Lithuania[48] - compared to just 11.1% EU-wide.[49] Energy costs have spilled over into overall cost increases, hurting household purchasing power and hurting business margins.[50]
Populational
From 1945 until 1990, the population of the Baltic states did nothing but rise.[44] But since 1991, the population of the Baltic states has significantly fallen. They are now on-par with post-WW2 levels from 1950. Lithuania had a population of 3,696,000 in 1991, and in 2020 only has 2,722,000. Latvia had a population of 2,664,000 in 1991 and only has 1,886,000 in 2020. Estonia had 1,565,000 in 1991 and 1,327,000 in 2020.[51]
The population of these countries is leaving due to the poor conditions of these countries left after the USSR's collapse.[42] The workers seek higher wages and conditions in the wealthier, western states of the EU. The working-age population is shrinking and labor shortages are appearing.[52] This is most notable in Lithuania: it ranks in the ten most depopulating countries on Earth,[53] 20% of its residents are over the retirement age, and it has a declining birth rate. In recent years, approximately 22,000 children have been born annually, while around 40,000 people die each year.[54]
Most of the population decline in the three countries is attributable to fertility and mortality trends. Total fertility rates in all three countries plummeted after 1990 and shrank all through the 1990s, reaching a low point in 1998. Even though fertility rates have risen somewhat since the end of the 1990s, they are still far below the replacement rates. Hence, the populations of all three countries have declined by at least 15-20% during the period of independence.[44] According to a 2017 UN report, both Latvia and Lithuania will lose 15% of their populations by 2050. This is not occurring in Estonia due to a higher immigration rate, though the working age population continues to decline there as working-age individuals leave.[55]
Militarical: NATO
Background
NATO had been formed in 1949, claiming to "maintain peace in Europe," but mainly to serve as a force to fight against the Soviet Union.{{cn} East Germany reunited with West Germany in 1990, and was admitted to NATO as a result. Then-Secretary of State James Baker promised Gorbachev that NATO would not expand further east. In typical western fashion, this was not the truth. Hungary, Poland, and Czechia all joined NATO in 1999. In 2004, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia joined, along with the Baltic states.[56][57]
Baltic admission
The Baltic states were admitted to NATO on 29 March 2004.[58]
21st century
Slovak soldiers take part in NATO exercises in Latvia in 2022
Since 2017, NATO’s multinational battalion-sized battlegroups have been deployed in the Baltic states on a permanent rotational basis (one more battlegroup was formed in Poland). Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, NATO resolved to assign additional high-readiness forces to these battlegroups. If required, these forces can be rapidly deployed from the framework nations (the UK in Estonia, Canada in Latvia, and Germany in Lithuania) and form a full brigade alongside the battalion-sized battlegroups in the host countries. The Baltic states have secured commitments from the framework nations to expand their presence to brigade level, albeit under different terms.[59]
Political: The EU
Since their accession to the European Union in 2004, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have faced recurring criticism regarding the political, economic, and social effects of EU membership. While integration brought access to European markets and institutions, detractors argue that the process has also weakened national sovereignty, contributed to demographic and economic imbalances, and encouraged an over-reliance on external decision-making.[60]
Critics contend that the transfer of legislative powers to EU institutions has substantially reduced the ability of the Baltic states to determine independent policy. The obligation to implement EU directives and regulations is frequently cited as an example of limited national control. Areas such as energy policy, environmental standards, and agricultural subsidies are often shaped more by Brussels than by local parliaments. Opponents argue that this has turned the Baltic governments into “policy executors” rather than independent decision-makers.[60]
Skeptics of EU influence claim that the Baltic political systems have become heavily dependent on European structural and cohesion funds, fostering an administrative culture centered around compliance rather than innovation. A significant portion of national projects are designed primarily to meet EU funding criteria rather than domestic priorities. This, critics argue, has entrenched a bureaucratic elite tied to European institutions and incentives, limiting grassroots policymaking and accountability.[60]
Economic critics assert that the adoption of EU fiscal and monetary frameworks—particularly the euro—has constrained the flexibility of Baltic economies. Some economists argue that strict adherence to EU fiscal rules has limited investment in public services and social programs. Additionally, the EU’s free movement of labor has accelerated large-scale emigration, particularly among younger and skilled workers, contributing to population decline and aging demographics across the region. Rural communities in Latvia and Lithuania have been especially affected by workforce losses.[51][60]
Opponents of deeper European integration in the Baltic states argue that EU cultural and political norms promote a homogenized vision of governance and identity, reducing the visibility of local traditions and political diversity. The emphasis on adopting EU standards is sometimes seen as discouraging independent political debate or alternative models of governance. Critics claim that political elites in the Baltic capitals have grown increasingly detached from domestic concerns, prioritizing EU approval over national interests.[60]
While the EU is often viewed as a guarantor of stability, some political commentators[who?] argue that reliance on EU institutions has fostered complacency in national defense and strategic planning. According to these critics, the focus on EU alignment has occasionally distracted from the development of independent regional policies or alternative alliances, making the Baltic states overly dependent on decisions made at the European level.[60]
↑ "Upheaval in the East; Soviet Congress Condemns '39 Pact That Led to Annexation of Baltics". The New York Times. 25 December 1989. Archived from the original on 4 May 2021. Retrieved 17 May 2020. The Congress condemned the secret protocols to the 1939 Soviet-German Nonaggression Treaty, which included a map delineating Soviet and German areas of interest, as 'legally untenable and invalid from the moment they were signed.'
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